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OMRI Pursuing Balkan Peace, No. 39, 96-10-01
From: Open Media Research Institute <http://www.omri.cz>
Pursuing Balkan Peace
No. 39, 1 October 1996
CONTENTS
[01] Pursuing Balkan Peace
[02] "A ROYAL MESS"
[03] BOSNIAN PRESIDENCY MEETS.
[04] KRAJISNIK: WE HAVE TO COOPERATE.
[05] BOSNIAN ELECTION FLAWS ADMITTED.
[06] SILAJDZIC ON THE ELECTIONS.
[07] CALL FOR LOYALIST BOSNIAN SERBS TO ORGANIZE.
[08] ELECTION DAY IN DOBOJ.
[09] SDA SANDZAK SAYS BOSNIAN ELECTIONS WERE "OVERTURE" FOR RUMP-YUGOSLAVIA.
[10] IZETBEGOVIC WARNS OF NEW WAR IN BOSNIA . . .
[11] . . . AND DISCUSSES RELATIONS WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
[12] NATO PLANS FOR NEW ROLE IN BOSNIA.
[13] IMBROGLIO OVER MUSLIM REFUGEES GOES ON.
[14] GERMANY DETERMINED TO SEND BOSNIAN REFUGEES HOME.
[15] COLD WEATHER FORCES END TO BOSNIAN EXHUMATIONS.
[16] VIOLENCE IS STILL PRESENT.
[17] BOSNIAN JAILS "WORSE THAN UGANDA."
[18] BOSNIAN BLACK STATISTICS.
[19] A SARAJEVAN FACE OF ISLAM.
[01] Pursuing Balkan Peace
is published by the Open Media Research Institute. It is a compilation of news
concerning the former Soviet Union and East-Central and Southeastern Europe.
Contributors include OMRI's 30-member staff of analysts, plus selected
freelance specialists. OMRI is a nonprofit, public service research
organization funded by the Open Society Institute, indepdendent grants, and
contracts with broadcasting organizations.
[02] "A ROYAL MESS"
This is how one observer has described the 14 September elections in Bosnia-
Herzegovina and their aftermath. Indeed, the news from the past fortnight
reveals a highly imperfect vote and provides ample reasons for concern about
that troubled country's future.
The returns from those elections are nonetheless interesting for a variety of
reasons. First, although fairly high turnouts were reported for Bosnia-
Herzegovina as a whole, in more than a few cases the number of ballots cast
exceeded not only the number of voters who turned up, but also the number of
registered voters in that locality. In some cases, the figures reached 111%
for one polling station, and 104% for the country as a whole. Second, these
bizarre figures were revised and altered a number of times, so that it was
often difficult to get a sense of what the final count actually was. It was
similarly troublesome to discern whether the irregularities in tabulating what
had been called "the most complicated elections in history" were the result of
confusion or of deliberate vote-rigging.
But the OSCE, which was monitoring the elections, was not to be deterred by
matters such as turnouts of over 100%. Indeed, its spokesmen stressed that,
while there may have been some difficulties and irregularities, there was no
massive fraud. The conclusion seems to have been that the acts of mischief on
the respective sides served simply to cancel each other out and that the
results should be declared valid. This is, in fact, what the OSCE decided when
it ruled on 29 September to overrule its own legal advisors (who wanted a
recount) and pronounce the results official.
Part of the reason for this haste to give a seal of approval to an election
that was obviously neither free nor fair is that the major powers were anxious
to declare the vote a success so that they could claim that the implementation
of the Dayton peace agreement was on schedule. They -- the U.S. in particular -
- had, however, sponsored the Dayton peace talks but then failed to enforce
basic civilian provisions of the treaty. These points included ones of clear
relevance to the elections, such as ensuring freedom of movement, the right of
refugees to go home, and freedom of the press and of association. Indeed, IFOR
had even been lax in carrying out some of the military provisions and was
content first and foremost that the fighting had stopped, just as the OSCE
said it was happy with the elections if only because "nobody got shot" on
election day.
With this tacky record behind it, the "international community" was anxious to
put on a brave face, call the elections a success, and show that the Dayton
process was on track. This was of particular importance to the Clinton
administration with just weeks to go before an election of its own, and some
Sarajevo wags suggested that the OSCE was really the Organization to Secure
Clinton's Election.
It had become obvious, however, that some things could not be simply swept
under the rug. The local elections, for example, had been postponed because of
gross fraud in voter registration. Some of the foreigners were anxious to get
them out of the way in October or November, but it soon became clear that
problems regarding the voters' lists and freedom of movement could not be
cleared up before spring at the earliest.
That raised the question once again of the need for something like IFOR to be
present beyond the expiration of its mandate and into the new year to ensure
that at least basic order could be maintained. Many local leaders,
particularly among the Muslims and the Croats, favored an extended
international military presence, but they received no clear answer from
abroad. The main reason was that, while Great Britain, France, Germany and
some others were willing to consider a longer stay, few were willing to
contemplate one without U.S. participation. The Clinton administration,
however, was unwilling to commit itself one way or another in public before
the November election. The future of security in Bosnia will thus remain
something of an open question until the Americans go to the polls.
But even if a new IFOR is approved and in place in 1997, it is difficult to
see what more it can do than stop a new outbreak of fighting unless its
mandate is changed. There seems to be a general lack of political will in the
world's capitals to enforce the provisions of the Dayton agreement and show
the nationalists on the ground in Bosnia that the international community
means business, as it did last year when the effective Rapid Reaction
Force supplanted the hapless UNPROFOR. In the meantime, those nationalists
will continue to test the limits of the possible in the face of what they
regard as weakness on the part of NATO, the UN and the OSCE. IFOR will still
get tough with refugees wanting to return to their homes -- although they have
every right to do so under Dayton -- but let indicted war criminals run free.
And nationalists from all three sides will take up their government posts to
which they have been freshly elected, by voters who turned out to the tune of
111%. -- Patrick Moore
[03] BOSNIAN PRESIDENCY MEETS.
The mechanism in the process is, in fact, already in motion. The three members
of the chief executive body met on 30 September at the new Hotel Saraj on the
road between Sarajevo and Pale. The international community's High
Representative Carl Bildt and his deputy Michael Steiner welcomed the Muslims'
Alija Izetbegovic (who also holds the rotating chair), the Serbs' Momcilo
Krajisnik, and the Croats' Kresimir Zubak, but then left the three to talk
alone. (The three men's nationalist supporters might note that they did not
need interpreters.) Onasa quoted a spokesman as calling the talks "business-
like," but Oslobodjenje referred to a "very good atmosphere" and Nasa
Borba even mentioned a "friendly atmosphere." The footage on CNN, however,
did not show the men as looking particularly comfortable. In any event,
Oslobodjenje noted that the three agreed that Parliament and the presidency
will both meet on 5 October, and that the first session of the cabinet will
take place by 30 October. They also agreed to free their remaining prisoners. -
- Patrick Moore
[04] KRAJISNIK: WE HAVE TO COOPERATE.
Krajisnik told Serbian television that he is calling on all Bosnian citizens
to "accept reality" and cooperate in order to avoid new deaths and clashes,
Nasa Borba reported on 30 September. Krajisnik said that it is out of the
question and humiliating to the Serbs that he take a loyalty oath to the
integral state of Bosnia-Herzegovina, as requested by Izetbegovic. The Serb
leader said that issue would instead be solved through a compromise. When
reminded how difficult it was to build a consensus between Serbs, Croats, and
Muslims in the prewar parliament, Krajisnik said the situation has changed,
and the Dayton agreement has guaranteed that no nation can dominate another.
"We are completely independent and separated from the Muslims and Croats. Our
home is the Republika Srpska, where we are independent to make decisions best
for Serbs, while having a consensus in a joint institutions." -- Daria Sito
Sucic
[05] BOSNIAN ELECTION FLAWS ADMITTED.
Returning to the elections, the OSCE's election coordinator Ed Van Thijn had,
in fact, already said on 24 September that the ballot was not "free or fair,"
but denied that there was "fraud or manipulation... of sufficient magnitude to
affect the elections." He added, however, that freedom of movement and
association will have to be ensured before local elections can be held, and
that the nagging problem of padded or purged voter registration lists will
have to be solved as well, Onasa reported. This means that the local elections
will indeed be postponed into early 1997, the BBC noted. Challenges to Van
Thijn's announcement that the vote would be validated came quickly from the
Muslim Party of Democratic Action (SDA). Also on 24 September, the acting
president of the Republika Srpska (RS), Biljana Plavsic, claimed that "the
figures have been adjusted in order to answer the political needs of some.
This adjustment has been accomplished with the help of illegal ballots that
the electoral commission of the Republika Srpska was unable to check. The
Republika Srpska can not accept a revision of the results relying on these
mysterious ballots," AFP reported. -- Patrick Moore
[06] SILAJDZIC ON THE ELECTIONS.
Former Premier and head of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (S BiH) Haris
Silajdzic also questioned conditions before and during the elections. On 20
September he told state radio, however, that "we now should build both from
within and without a consensus on the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We
will not succeed without the help of the international community. And we need
to work on an international consensus that BiH, as an integral country and
state, is needed by the world. We must not rely on the goodwill of some
countries, nor on the influence of only a few. As you know, relations among
countries [can] change. They are not something constant. Therefore we must
rely on a world consensus that it is necessary to preserve the integrity of
BiH for the sake of peace and stability in the region. The international order
will in many ways depend on how the Bosnian problem is ultimately solved." --
Yvonne Badal in Sarajevo
[07] CALL FOR LOYALIST BOSNIAN SERBS TO ORGANIZE.
Meanwhile, others drew other conclusions from the vote. Gen. Jovan Divjak
appealed to the Serbs living on federal territory to form their own political
party and seek their own voice in Bosnian politics. Divjak is a Bosnian Serb
who remained loyal to the Bosnian government and held a command throughout the
war, but was cashiered when the SDA consolidated its control over the military
after Dayton. He pointed out that the Serbs make up "10 to 15% of the
population on the territory controlled by the government, but on the list of
candidates [there] they were not even 1%," Oslobodjenje on 27 September
quoted him as saying. -- Patrick Moore
[08] ELECTION DAY IN DOBOJ.
And in Serb-held Doboj, the first unofficial election results caused heavy
disappointment and fear "about any further possibility to implement Dayton and
to solve the Bosnian crisis," said one opposition party follower. "Almost the
same assemblies that created the ethnic hatred will now meet again." People in
the queue in front of the polling station said they resent Izetbegovic mainly
for the fact that he always talked of the "Serb's entity" instead of the
Republika Srpska, which they said revealed his own weighted agenda.
Furthermore, Izetbegovic talked constantly about the "reconstruction of Bosnia
and Herzegovina, which is unacceptable [for the Serbs]." The only way out is
"the independence of the Republika Srpska." One independent journalist in
Doboj said the fact that "BiH TV mentioned Warren Christopher congratulating
Izetbegovic, without mentioning the two other members of the presidency,
became one more argument for those who believe the international community
wants to dissolve the RS." In a Doboj pub, people were heard talking about
their fears that "the only solution for the Serb people will be to fight
another war." -- Yvonne Badal in Sarajevo
[09] SDA SANDZAK SAYS BOSNIAN ELECTIONS WERE "OVERTURE" FOR RUMP-YUGOSLAVIA.
But a major Muslim political figure from Serbia-Montenegro is pleased with
the vote. Rasim Ljajic is the leader of the local branch of the SDA, which
has close links to Izetbegovic's organization. It represents the Muslims
in Sandzak, which is divided between Serbia and Montenegro but which has a
slight Muslim majority. Following the Bosnian vote, Ljajic said that "the SDA
victory in Bosnia will pave the way for our election victory," Onasa reported
on 27 September. He added, however, that large numbers of Sandzak Muslims
intended to move to Bosnia from Sandzak once the situation stabilizes there.
Within the last 15 days, some 17 Muslim families from Sjenica in Sandzak moved
to Sarajevo. -- Fabian Schmidt
[10] IZETBEGOVIC WARNS OF NEW WAR IN BOSNIA . . .
They may have cause to regret their decision, however. President Izetbegovic
warned the UN General Assembly that the conflict could resume in Bosnia-
Herzegovina if the Dayton peace accord is not enforced, adding that an
international military presence will be necessary "for a certain and limited
period of time." He criticized the local Croats for maintaining their para-
state of Herceg-Bosna despite numerous promises to dissolve it. Izetbegovic
singled out the Bosnian Serbs for criticism because they block Muslim and
Croatian refugees from going home and because they refuse to hand over
indicted war criminals to the Hague-based tribunal. Oslobodjenje on 26
September quoted him as saying that "if genocide without punishment is
possible, then Bosnia and Herzegovina is not possible." Referring to the new
government for the entire country, he said that it should include
representation from the opposition, work to enforce the Dayton agreement, and
promote media freedom. -- Patrick Moore
[11] . . . AND DISCUSSES RELATIONS WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
The Bosnian president began speaking out on the future, however, already when
the first returns were released. AFP on 19 September quoted his remarks on
Croatia, local nationalists, and Serbia. "We believe that Croatia is heading
towards democracy. It does not have any other way out. At present we don't see
any great democracy there... but in the future we see Croatia inevitably as
a democratic state and as such it will not interfere in the affairs
of Bosnia-Herzegovina. In the meantime, Bosnia-Herzegovina will get stronger
and when you combine these factors you will see that Bosnia has a future."
Asked about the fact that many of the same nationalist leaders as elected in
1990 in Bosnia have been elected again, he quoted Hegel: the "same things are
not the same in different circumstances. The historical context is different."
Turning to Serbia, he said: "the idea of a greater Serbia is both militarily
and politically defeated. In 1991 people did not believe this," he said. --
Patrick Moore
[12] NATO PLANS FOR NEW ROLE IN BOSNIA.
Meanwhile in Bergen, Norway, NATO defense ministers for the first time
announced that the alliance will start planning for a possible role in Bosnia
after IFOR's mandate expires at the end of the year. No concrete measures are
likely to be announced until after the U.S. elections in November, the BBC
reported. British Defense Secretary Michael Portillo nonetheless said that "we
can't abandon the investment we've made [in Bosnia]" in promoting peace and
stability. And in Paris, Foreign Minister Herve de Charette announced that a
major international meeting on Bosnia will take place in early November to
deal with the future of Bosnian state institutions, AFP reported on 26
September. -- Patrick Moore
[13] IMBROGLIO OVER MUSLIM REFUGEES GOES ON.
Back on the ground in Bosnia, tensions continue regarding the village of
Jusici on Bosnian Serb-held territory, where armed Muslims have returned to
rebuild their homes. The UNHCR is expected to clarify the matter soon,
Oslobodjenje reported on 25 September. But later that day U.S. General
George Casey said that Muslims must first leave and process the necessary
paperwork before they can live there. Nasa Borba stated on 26 September that
Bosnian Prime Minister Hasan Muratovic has agreed to this formula, but the
next day the paper said that Muratovic denied the story. The UNHCR then put
forward a proposal that the Muslims leave for 72 hours, but it is not clear if
they will accept although the Serbs have, Onasa noted on 30 September. It
appears, however, that the Muslims are determined to force the issue of their
right to go home as specified in the Dayton agreement, and that the original
number of returnees has grown from 100 to 300, Reuters said. The additions
include women and children as well as military-aged males. A UN police
spokesman accused the Muslims of trying to taunt the local Serbian police. --
Patrick Moore
[14] GERMANY DETERMINED TO SEND BOSNIAN REFUGEES HOME.
Turning to a somewhat different story about refugees, German Interior Minister
Manfred Kanther warned that Bosnian refugees who refuse to repatriate "will
not end up in the Bosnian winter but in court," AFP reported on 30 September.
The interior ministers of Germany's federal states agreed earlier that
repatriation of the 320,000 Bosnian refugees currently in Germany should start
on 1 October, but they left it up to each state to decide on timing and
procedure (see ). Repatriation is to start with unmarried people and couples
with no children, and refugees may only be sent back to "safe" regions, with
each case to be dealt with on an individual basis. Chancellor Helmut Kohl told
the Bundestag that instead of spending 15 billion marks (10 billion dollars)
for housing the refugees in Germany, it would be more reasonable to spend that
money on the reconstruction of Bosnia, enabling them both to return to their
homes and to have employment. But the Guardian on 28 September pointed out
that German politicians forget that most of the refugees do not have their
homes anymore, and that more than 200,000 of them have been evicted from
various parts of Bosnia, particularly from those under Serb control. In other
news, Vehid Sehic, head of the Tuzla-based Alternative Citizens' Parliament,
backed the German decision by saying on 28 September that the repatriation of
refugees is a higher priority than a civic society and democracy, Nasa Borba
reported on 30 September. -- Daria Sito Sucic
[15] COLD WEATHER FORCES END TO BOSNIAN EXHUMATIONS.
But the cold weather has indeed begun to set in, and international experts
have suspended their work in excavating mass graves in eastern Bosnia until
next spring. They uncovered nearly 500 bodies this year, virtually all of whom
are Muslim males from Srebrenica who appear to have been executed,
international news agencies noted on 25 September. The experts stressed that
it is necessary for Bosnians to know the truth about war crimes if they are to
begin looking toward the future, a point that Izetbegovic also made at the UN.
But grisly evidence continues to emerge, and British IFOR troops announced on
27 September that they had discovered the headless bodies of six Bosnian Serb
soldiers in a ditch in northeast Bosnia two days earlier. The men appear to
have been killed in the last stages of the war, AFP stated on 29 September. --
Patrick Moore
[16] VIOLENCE IS STILL PRESENT.
Such mass atrocities may be a thing of the past, but Oslobodjenje on 30
September reported the killing in Sarajevo two days before of Nedzad Ugljen,
the deputy head of the controversial Bosnian government intelligence
organization, the Agency for Research and Documentation. The next day the same
paper called him "the man who knew too much," and suggested that rivals within
his agency or in the Ministry of the Interior were behind the murder. In
Mostar, a hand grenade landed on the apartment balcony of Josip Jole Musa of
the opposition Joint List, causing material damage. He was recently elected to
the Bosnian Federal Assembly. The opposition Croatian Peasants Party (HSS)
blamed the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) for the blast since
it controls the west Mostar region, Onasa reported on 30 September. Along the
busy but dangerous Route Arizona in northern Bosnia, a Muslim was shot and
wounded on 27 September when his car was hijacked on Bosnian Serb territory,
Onasa noted. And in Dublin, Ireland, officials of more than 30 countries met
on 28 September to discuss plans for a modern and democratic police force for
Bosnia-Herzegovina. The UN-sponsored conference sought to raise $99 million,
but few countries made firm commitments. The largest was a $17-million package
from the U.S. -- Patrick Moore
[17] BOSNIAN JAILS "WORSE THAN UGANDA."
And Bosnian police work certainly needs improvement. Federal ombudsmen accused
the police of violating human rights in every canton, Onasa reported on 26
September. The ombudsmen said that the police hold prisoners for longer than
the legal limit without telling their families, drag out investigations for up
to three years, and still make charges against people who served in the
Serbian or Croatian armies despite the amnesty. People have been denied
passports, and in Mostar have been intimidated from visiting the ombudsmen's
office. -- Patrick Moore
[18] BOSNIAN BLACK STATISTICS.
Still on the darker side of life, the Institute for Public Health in Bosnia-
Herzegovina reported that 278,800 people were killed in the country between
1992 and 1995, which represents 6.3% of the entire population. The information
that more than 50% of the victims were Muslims is based on local office
reports and estimates in areas where official data are not available. There
are 1,370,000 displaced persons in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and 1,250,000 refugees
outside its borders, Oslobodjenje reported on 7 September. These figures
represent 58.2% of the country's population. In addition, in June of this year
43 persons were killed and 17 committed suicide in Sarajevo alone. The deaths
are attributable to economic and social pressures and post-war trauma. --
Daria Sito Sucic
[19] A SARAJEVAN FACE OF ISLAM.
Lejla, 19, is dressed conservatively in a long skirt and wide jacket, her hair
hidden under a dark blue shawl. She laughs warmly: "no, it's not because of my
parents! You know what? They think I'm crazy [to dress in traditional Muslim
style]. But," she says, "they are typical Sarajevans: anything goes." The
daughter of a mathematician and an economist, Lejla grew up in an atmosphere
of tolerance. Although both her parents are Muslim, the environment at home
was completely non-religious. "To be honest, I don't think I would ever have
bothered about our culture or the Koran if it weren't for the war." Her
friend Jasmina, 20, like Lejla a first-year student of Romance languages,
nods: "at first you are just trying to find answers. Why? Why does one group
of people want to exterminate another? Then you realize that someone is
forcing you to belong to a group-- or a 'nation,' as it were, in the former
Yugoslavia -- to which you have only very loose ties, if any. And one day you
really do belong to it." Searching for answers, she continues, means diving
deeper and deeper into your own culture's history. "I had never thought that I
would become a proud Muslim," says Lejla, "or that I would find an identity in
religion."
Neither young woman understands the West's fear of growing Islamic
fundamentalism in its backyard. "Would anyone talk of Catholic fundamentalism
in Italy, where most people obey Christian laws?" Jasmina asks. Religious
traditions must not contradict modernity, she agrees, but adds angrily:
"Bosnia is not some closed-off valley in a backward country, and we are not
illiterate peasants following the orders of some self-proclaimed Islamic
leader!" Lejla adds: "true Islam is not a sinister medieval practice!" But as
with any religion, she says, if you don't leave space for discussion, if you
are unwilling to interpret rules set in ancient times to fit a modern
environment, then you do slide back into the Middle Ages.
"Why," she asks, "do so many people in Europe believe that Western-style
educated people like us could change into some Middle Eastern mujahedin
fundamentalists?" Not that she condemns Middle Easterners -- "you always have
to look into people's history and try to understand why they became what they
are" -- but their ways are alien to her, although in any event she is
disgusted with "these Western fear-mongers." "Again this week, a French
newspaper claimed that Islamic countries will expect religious obedience in
return for the aid they give us," Lejla says. "Europe should know better then
that. It only needs to look into its own experience. Did all the development
aid it pumped into Third World countries make them turn into Protestant or
Catholic strongholds?" The fact that "Europe constantly pointed fingers at the
few foreign mujahedin fighters we had" makes both women furious. "Others
haven't even tried to help," says Lejla.
But why, if they support a modern version of Islam, do the two women adopt
traditional dress rules? After a moment, Lejla answers: "It's more a personal
reaction than obedience." When the war started they had just entered their
teens, and they tried hard to keep up with the teenage world they were so
completely shut off from. "You know, for us, fashion became everything,"
Jasmina says, "though we couldn't go anywhere. We needed something other than
grenades and snipers and water and food to occupy our minds." Her mother, who
"never ever had a needle in her hand before," started to tailor fashionable
designer pieces for her, modeled after pictures in a few magazines that went
from hand to hand in besieged Sarajevo. "And we spent hours fooling around
with whatever make-up our mothers had left." Although it may sound strange,
both agree that they came to identify fashion and make-up with war. Among
their old friends, they are the only ones who have turned to Islam. "None of
our old friends, whether Muslim or not, thinks what we're doing is odd. But
it's true, we don't make many new ones."
It has become a common picture in Sarajevo's streets to see a traditionally
dressed Muslim girl window-shopping with a super-modern, stylish girlfriend.
But what about boyfriends? "What about them?" asks Jasmina defensively. "Of
course we have boyfriends." Lejla jumps in: "Well, maybe it would be different
if our parents were religious. I know a girl who is not allowed to leave the
house alone, much less have a boyfriend. But that is very rare here, even
among religious families." The question whether the boyfriend has to be Muslim
makes them laugh. "He must be tolerant, that's all," they agree.
In Koran school, the girls would often discuss with the women which religious
traditions for women were required in a modern society and which not. "I think
we will come to the understanding that free will and tolerance are more
important than blind obedience," says Jasmina. "Personally, I think that each
person should remain recognizable as an individual and not drown in a mass of
believers. For the time being, it is not only part of my identity and pride to
dress traditionally, it also makes me feel supported. Still, maybe tomorrow I
won't need it anymore. To be a modern Muslim woman, freedom of choice is
essential." After a thoughtful moment, Lejla concludes: "tolerance is the
basis of all great world religions. The problem is that both the followers
of Christianity and of Islam all too often interpret their holy books to
suit their personal purposes. If there is anything in the writings that
is absolutely clear and needs no interpretation, it is tolerance." -- Yvonne
Badal in Sarajevo
Edited by Patrick Moore
This material was reprinted with permission of the Open Media
Research Institute, a nonprofit organization with research offices in
Prague, Czech Republic.
For more information on OMRI publications please write to info@omri.cz.
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