UNFICYP's Role in a Future Solution

If there is a solution to the Cyprus problem and a peace agreement is signed, UNFICYP and the U.N. can play a large role during the transition and after. The U.N.'s record is modest, but it has been successful in a variety of missions and has proven that it can accomplish many things. The U.N.'s experience in Cambodia, Namibia, Central America, and elsewhere show that the U.N. can effectively serve the following functions that might be of use on Cyprus:

Monitor the withdrawal of mainland military forces on Cyprus and verify the demilitarization. Withdrawal and demilitarization are a necessary part of any Cyprus solution.
Supervise or monitor elections and help make sure they are fair and honest.
Assist with other aspects of civil administration, in particular monitoring aspects of the post-solution government which may depend on various proportions of people from each side to work. Proportional representation/proportional civil service problems posed big problems from 1960-1964.⁴²
Continue to help with coordination between the two zones in such areas as electricity, sewers, and so forth (as it does today).

The key to success with these functions is consent of the parties. A solution cannot be imposed on parties who are hostile and who are not ready to live together.

With respect to the buffer zone and peacekeeping, these functions hopefully won't be necessary after a solution is reached. Realistically, there is likely to be lingering hostility even after a solution is agreed upon, so it might be worth considering an UNFICYP presence during the transition period. The transition period might involve a temporary new buffer zone between the bi-zonal communities. UNFICYP could also conduct 1960s type patrolling - moving freely wherever the two communities have come back closer together and thus providing a pre-emptive calming effect. To signal a fresh start, it might help to rename UNFICYP and bring additional peacekeeping contingents.

A new buffer zone could also help the negotiations for a solution in the first place. What if both sides cannot agree on what percent of the land each of the bi-zonal zones is supposed to represent? Say the Turkish Cypriots want 31% and the Greek Cypriots want 71%. Maybe a new buffer zone that took up two percent of the island could help make each side happy with 29% and 69% (respectively). The might happen because the remaining two percent of each side's bargaining position would have been ceded to the buffer zone, not the other side. UNDOF's creation on the Golan Heights helped in just this way. Each side could make "concessions" to the U.N. zone that they wouldn't make to each other.

With luck, some of these ideas will not be necessary or will only be necessary for a temporary period. Either way, UNFICYP and the U.N. will likely play an important role in coming to a solution and during the transition afterward.⁴³

⁴² Here a loose federation as proposed by Dr. Theophanous might be of help. Ideally though, a loose federation is only a starting point and to prevent it from being a stopping point requires cooperation between the two communities. These points are made in Andreas Theophanous, "The Economic Aspects and Consequences of a Federal Solution to the Cyprus Problem," Cyprus Review, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Fall 1994). ⁴³ Oliver Richmond's symposium paper focused on the role of mediation and mediators on Cyprus and discussed the U.N.'s good offices mission.