Voice of America, 99-06-18

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] =CLINTON / KOSOVO (S-ONITER) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

[02] ALBANIA REFUGEE CROSSING (L-ONLY) BY TIM BELAY (ALBANIA-KOSOVO BORDER)

[03] AMERICAN SECTOR / K-L-A (L-ONLY) BY GIL BUTLER (PRISTINA)

[04] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

[05] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

[06] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

[07] CLINTON / RUSSIA / KOSOVO / S BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

[08] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY NICK SIMEONE (WASHINGTON)

[09] KOSOVO / K-L-A TORTURE ROOM (L-ONLY) BY PHILLIP SMUCKER (PRIZREN)

[10] KOSOVO / TORTURE (L-ONLY) BY EVE CONANT (PRISTINA)

[11] KOSOVO REFUGEES RETURN (L-ONLY) BY EVE CONANT (PRISTINA)

[12] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

[13] TURKEY / MILITARY COURT (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[14] U-N / ANNAN / KOSOVO (L - ONLY) BY MAX RUSTON (UNITED NATIONS)

[15] UNHCR KOSOVO (L-ONLY) BY LISA SCHLEIN (GENEVA)

[16] WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO

[17] WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO

[01] =CLINTON / KOSOVO (S-ONITER) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON IS PRAISING THE AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN SENIOR U-S AND RUSSIAN OFFICIALS IN HELSINKI PROVIDING FOR A RUSSIAN ROLE IN THE INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN KOSOVO. CORRESPONDENT DEBORAH TATE REPORTS FROM COLOGNE, GERMANY, WHERE THE PRESIDENT IS TRAVELING.

TEXT: JUST MOMENTS AFTER U-S SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WILLIAM COHEN AND HIS RUSSIAN COUNTERPART IGOR SERGEYEV SIGNED THE AGREEMENT IN HELSINKI, MR. CLINTON WELCOMED ITS TERMS.

THEY PROVIDE FOR UNITY OF COMMAND, THEY PROVIDE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF RESPONSIBILITIES FOR THE RUSSIANS, WHICH I THINK ARE ENTIRELY APPROPRIATE, AND WILL ENHANCE THE MISSION'S EFFECTIVENESS, AND I AM FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AGREEMENT AND VERY PLEASED BY IT.

MR. CLINTON IS EXPECTED TO DISCUSS THE AGREEMENT WITH HIS RUSSIAN COUNTERPART BORIS YELTSIN HERE SUNDAY, ON THE SIDELINES OF AN ECONOMIC SUMMIT. AT A DINNER AT THE START OF THE SUMMIT FRIDAY NIGHT, A U-S OFFICIAL WHO DID NOT WANT TO BE IDENTIFIED SAID RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER SERGEI STEPASHIN PLEDGED THAT RUSSIA FULLY INTENDS TO CARRY OUT ITS PEACEKEEPING RESPONSIBILITIES WITH - IN HIS WORDS - ABSOLUTE FAIRNESS TO ETHNIC ALBANIANS AND SERBS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DAT/PHW/GM
18-Jun-99 6:26 PM EDT (2226 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] ALBANIA REFUGEE CROSSING (L-ONLY) BY TIM BELAY (ALBANIA-KOSOVO BORDER)

INTRO: THOUSANDS OF REFUGEES CONTINUE TO POUR BACK INTO KOSOVO FRIDAY, DESPITE MORE WARNINGS FROM NATO THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN ALBANIA UNTIL EFFORTS TO CHECK FOR MINES AND BOOBY-TRAPS ARE COMPLETE. TIM BELAY IS ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN ALBANIA AND KOSOVO AND HAS FILED THIS REPORT.

TEXT: ANOTHER 15-THOUSAND ETHNIC ALBANIANS WERE EXPECTED TO CROSS BACK INTO KOSOVO FROM ALBANIA FRIDAY. MOST OF THEM FLED OR WERE FORCED OUT OF THEIR HOMES MORE THAN TWO MONTHS AGO, AND MANY ARE AMONG THOSE WHO CHOSE TO WAIT-OUT THE CONFLICT JUST TO CROSS THE BORDER IN THE NORTHERN ALBANIAN TOWN OF KUKES.

THIS YOUNG MAN WE TALKED TO WAS ON A SCOUTING MISSION TO CHECK OUT THE CONDITION OF HIS FAMILY HOME IN KOSOVO. HE SAYS HE KNOWS ABOUT THE LAND-MINE DANGERS.

I'M WELL AWARE OF THAT, BUT I WANT TO GO AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO SEE MY HOME.

AS THE REFUGEES RETURN TO KOSOVO, THEY ARE GREETED AT THE BORDER BY WARNINGS PRINTED IN ENGLISH AND ALBANIAN, URGING THEM NOT TO STRAY FROM THE PAVEMENT, NOT TO TOUCH ATTRACTIVE OBJECTS WHICH COULD BE BOOBY-TRAPS, AND TO REPORT ANY MINE DISCOVERIES TO NATO.

KRIS JANOWSKI, SPOKESMAN FOR THE U-N REFUGEE AGENCY, SAYS THERE ARE A COUPLE OF REASONS WHY HIS ORGANIZATION WOULD RATHER NOT BE SEEING SUCH A BUSY BORDER. MR. JANOWSKI SAYS THE PEOPLE ESSENTIALLY KNOW WHERE THEY'RE GOING -- BUT ARE SO "KEEN" (EXCITED), AS HE PUT IT, ABOUT GETTING TO THEIR HOMES THAT THEY ARE IGNORING ALL THE WARNINGS AND ADVICE. HE SAYS THE MINE DANGER IS NOT THE ONLY REASON WHY THE U-N-H-C-R WOULD LIKE THE REFUGEES TO GO MORE SLOWLY. HE SAYS THE OTHER REASON IS THAT HIS AGENCY HAS TO LOOK AFTER THE DISPLACED POPULATION IN KOSOVO, WHICH HE SAYS IS IN WORSE SHAPE THAN THE REFUGEES RETURNING FROM ALBANIA.

STILL MR. JANOWSKI SAYS THIS IS A HAPPY OCCASION -- THE FIRST TIME IN THE BALKANS OVER THE PAST SEVEN YEARS THAT THE PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY GOING HOME IN SUCH BIG NUMBERS. (SIGNED)
NEB/TB/PCF/KL
18-Jun-99 2:41 PM EDT (1841 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] AMERICAN SECTOR / K-L-A (L-ONLY) BY GIL BUTLER (PRISTINA)

INTRO: THE YUGOSLAV MILITARY WITHDRAWAL FROM KOSOVO IS PROCEEDING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. INTERNATIONAL FORCES ARE NOW IN MOST PARTS OF THE PROVINCE. ALL YUGOSLAV TROOPS ARE TO BE OUT KOSOVO BY SUNDAY AT MIDNIGHT (LOCAL TIME -- 22 HOURS U-T-C/6 P-M E-D-T). V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER TRAVELLED TO SOUTHEASTERN KOSOVO, WHICH IS THE AMERICAN SECTOR, AND HAS A REPORT ON EFFORTS TO GET GUNS OFF THE STREETS.

TEXT: IT WAS AT GJILAN, ABOUT 80 KILOMETERS FROM PRISTINA, THAT THE FIRST LARGE CONFISCATION OF WEAPONS FROM THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY TOOK PLACE. ONE-HUNDRED-16 K-L-A GUERRILLAS -- KNOWN AS U-C-K (AFTER THE GROUP'S NAME IN ALBANIAN) -- WERE DISARMED EARLIER THIS WEEK AFTER THEY REFUSED TO SURRENDER THEIR WEAPONS.

MARINE COLONEL KENNETH GLUECK, COMMANDER OF THE MARINE EXPEDITIONARY FORCE IN GJILAN, SAYS THE INCIDENT WAS A DEFINING MOMENT.

WE ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW ANY WEAPONS -- EITHER SERB OR U-C-K WEAPONS INTO THE CITY. WE CONSIDER IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH A DEFINING MOMENT FOR US. IT WAS A VERY LARGE FORCE -- 116. THEY WERE HEAVILY ARMED. AND WE MADE SURE WE HAD ENOUGH OVERWHELMING FIREPOWER TO INSURE THAT THEY UNDERSTOOD THAT IT WAS NOT WORTH TRYING TO FIGHT, JUST TO GIVE UP THE ARMS AND GO HOME.

MARINES HAVE TAKEN OVER THE POLICE STATION ON THE MAIN SQUARE OF GJILAN, AND AT NOON, WHILE A LARGE CROWD WATCHED, NINE K-L-A MEMBERS WERE PUT UP AGAINST THE WALL AND SEARCHED FOR WEAPONS.

SOME ETHNIC ALBANIANS IN THE CROWD DID NOT LIKE THE PROCEDURE. THEY CHEERED AS THE GUERRILLAS GOT IN THEIR CAR AND DROVE OFF AFTER THE SEARCH.

NATO HAS BEEN SAYING THAT "K-FOR" IS IN KOSOVO TO PROTECT ALL CITIZENS, REGARDLESS OF THEIR ETHNICITY. PUBLICLY DISARMING THE K-L-A WOULD TEND TO SEND THAT MESSAGE. BUT STILL, GJILAN'S SERBS COULD BE SEEN PACKING UP AND LEAVING KOSOVO. THE UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSION FOR REFUGEES ESTIMATES 50-TO-60-THOUSAND ETHNIC SERBS HAVE LEFT IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

THE POLICY IN THE AMERICAN-CONTROLLED SECTOR OF KOSOVO OF SEARCHING FOR AND CONFISCATING WEAPONS HAS THE SUPPORT OF "K-FOR," ACCORDING TO ITS SPOKESMAN, LT. COLONEL ROBIN CLIFFORD.

WELL I WOULD SAY IT IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT WAY TO GO ABOUT IT, IF THAT IS THE DECISION OF THE LOCAL MILITARY COMMANDER ON THE GROUND. AS I HAVE SAID MANY TIMES, THERE IS NO BLANKET ORDER THROUGHOUT KOSOVO FOR DEALING WITH LAW AND ORDER. THERE ARE DIFFERENT SITUATIONS IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE PROVINCE.

ON THE MAIN HIGHWAY BETWEEN THE LARGE TOWNS OF GJILAN AND UROSEVAC, U-S MILITARY ROADBLOCKS ARE SET UP AND CARS CHECKED FOR WEAPONS. A LARGE NUMBER OF WEAPONS HAVE BEEN CONFISCATED SO FAR.

THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY VISIBLE IN TOWNS AND VILLAGES. MANY ETHNIC ALBANIANS LOOK UPON THEM AS HEROES. K-L-A MEN IN UNIFORM AND BUILDINGS FLYING THE K-L-A FLAG ARE COMMON IN THE SECTOR CONTROLLED BY THE UNITED STATES MILITARY TOO. BUT THE MARINES AND SOLDIERS ARE TRYING TO MAKE IT CLEAR TO THEM THAT THEIR GUNS ARE NOT ALLOWED. (SIGNED)
NEB/MGB/PCF/WTW
18-Jun-99 1:40 PM EDT (1740 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON MET WITH TONY BLAIR FRIDAY IN COLOGNE, GERMANY AHEAD OF AN ECONOMIC SUMMIT BRINGING TOGETHER THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIAZED NATIONS AND RUSSIA. KOSOVO WAS A KEY ISSUE AT THE BILATERAL MEETING. CORRESPONDENT DEBORAH TATE REPORTS.

TEXT: AT THE START OF THE MEETING, MR. CLINTON AND MR. BLAIR UNDERSCORED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REBUILDING OF THE BALKANS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE YUGOSLAV CONFLICT.

THE ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ON THE AGENDA AT THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC SUMMIT.

EUROPEAN NATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEAR MOST OF THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION.

MR. CLINTON SAYS THAT IS ONLY FAIR, AS THE UNITED STATES TOOK THE LEAD IN NATO'S AIR CAMPAIGN. PRIME MINISTER BLAIR AGREED:

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR RESPONSIBLITY IN RELATION TO RECONSTRUCTION.

I THINK THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO GET THE TRUTH OUT, AND MAKE ALL THE PEOPLE SAFE. AND THEN WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK. I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO GIVE A LOT OF CARE TO THE EMOTIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL SCARS, ESPECIALLY THE CHILDREN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO BRING RELIGIOUS LEADERS TOGETHER FROM BOTH THEIR TRADITIONS AND PERHAPS OTHERS AROUND THE WORLD.

[05] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON MET WITH TONY BLAIR FRIDAY IN COLOGNE, GERMANY AHEAD OF AN ECONOMIC SUMMIT BRINGING TOGETHER THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIAZED NATIONS AND RUSSIA. KOSOVO WAS A KEY ISSUE AT THE BILATERAL MEETING. CORRESPONDENT DEBORAH TATE REPORTS.

TEXT: AT THE START OF THE MEETING, MR. CLINTON AND MR. BLAIR UNDERSCORED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REBUILDING OF THE BALKANS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE YUGOSLAV CONFLICT.

THE ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ON THE AGENDA AT THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC SUMMIT.

EUROPEAN NATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEAR MOST OF THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION.

MR. CLINTON SAYS THAT IS ONLY FAIR, AS THE UNITED STATES TOOK THE LEAD IN NATO'S AIR CAMPAIGN. PRIME MINISTER BLAIR AGREED:

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR RESPONSIBLITY IN RELATION TO RECONSTRUCTION.

I THINK THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO GET THE TRUTH OUT, AND MAKE ALL THE PEOPLE SAFE. AND THEN WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK. I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO GIVE A LOT OF CARE TO THE EMOTIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL SCARS, ESPECIALLY THE CHILDREN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO BRING RELIGIOUS LEADERS TOGETHER FROM BOTH THEIR TRADITIONS AND PERHAPS OTHERS AROUND THE WORLD.

[06] CLINTON / KOSOVO (L) BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON MET WITH TONY BLAIR FRIDAY IN COLOGNE, GERMANY AHEAD OF AN ECONOMIC SUMMIT BRINGING TOGETHER THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIAZED NATIONS AND RUSSIA. KOSOVO WAS A KEY ISSUE AT THE BILATERAL MEETING. CORRESPONDENT DEBORAH TATE REPORTS.

TEXT: AT THE START OF THE MEETING, MR. CLINTON AND MR. BLAIR UNDERSCORED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REBUILDING OF THE BALKANS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE YUGOSLAV CONFLICT.

THE ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ON THE AGENDA AT THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC SUMMIT.

EUROPEAN NATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEAR MOST OF THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION.

MR. CLINTON SAYS THAT IS ONLY FAIR, AS THE UNITED STATES TOOK THE LEAD IN NATO'S AIR CAMPAIGN. PRIME MINISTER BLAIR AGREED:

WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR RESPONSIBLITY IN RELATION TO RECONSTRUCTION.

I THINK THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO GET THE TRUTH OUT, AND MAKE ALL THE PEOPLE SAFE. AND THEN WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK. I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO GIVE A LOT OF CARE TO THE EMOTIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL SCARS, ESPECIALLY THE CHILDREN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO BRING RELIGIOUS LEADERS TOGETHER FROM BOTH THEIR TRADITIONS AND PERHAPS OTHERS AROUND THE WORLD.

[07] CLINTON / RUSSIA / KOSOVO / S BY DEBORAH TATE (COLOGNE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON SAYS HE BELIEVES HIGH-LEVEL U-S / RUSSIAN TALKS IN HELSINKI WILL RESULT IN AN AGREEMENT LATER TODAY (FRIDAY) ON THE ROLE OF RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS IN KOSOVO. CORRESPONDENT DEBORAH TATE REPORTS FROM COLOGNE, WHERE THE PRESIDENT IS TRAVELING.

TEXT: MR. CLINTON SOUNDED OPTIMISTIC AN AGREEMENT ON RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION IN AN INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN KOSOVO IS CLOSE AT HAND.

WHEN I WAS BRIEFED THIS MORNING, IT DID NOT SEEM TO ME IT WOULD TAKE TOO MUCH LONGER GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE ISSUES.

ONE OF THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES IS REPORTED TO BE MOSCOW'S INSISTENCE IT CONTROL A SECTOR IN KOSOVO -- A PROPOSAL REJECTED BY WASHINGTON, ON THE GROUNDS IT WOULD LEAD TO A PARTITIONING OF THE SOUTHERN SERB PROVINCE.

MR. CLINTON SPOKE TO REPORTERS DURING A PHOTO OPPORTUNITY WITH JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER KEIZO OBUCHI, AHEAD OF AN ECONOMIC SUMMIT WITH MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS AND RUSSIA.

THE REBUILDING OF KOSOVO IS EXPECTED TO BE A KEY ISSUE ON THE AGENDA. (SIGNED)
NEB / DAT / WD / WD
18-Jun-99 6:06 AM EDT (1006 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY NICK SIMEONE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN U-S POLICY TOWARD IRAQ, PAYING U-S DUES TO THE UNITED NATIONS AND WHETHER PRESIDENT CLINTON'S AMBASSADOR-DESIGNATE FOR THE U-N WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE UP HIS POST ARE JUST SOME OF THE ISSUES AMERICA'S MAJOR NEWSPAPERS ARE WRITING EDITORIALS ABOUT. HERE WITH A SAMPLING IS ___________ WITH TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS GIVING SERIOUS THOUGHT TO A MEASURE THAT WOULD ALLOW IRAQ TO SELL MORE OIL ON WORLD MARKETS, IF IT AGREES TO ALLOW U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS BACK INTO THE COUNTRY TO SEARCH FOR SUSPECTED WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. THE WEAPONS INSPECTORS HAVE NOT BEEN ON THE JOB SINCE U-S AND BRITISH AIR STRIKES LAST DECEMBER.

THE NEW YORK TIMES WRITES THAT THE STANDOFF WITH IRAQ IS GROWING INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS, SINCE WITHOUT THE WEAPONS INSPECTORS ON DUTY, BAGHDAD HAS HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO REBUILD DEADLY CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. IT IS TIME, THE NEWSPAPER ARGUES, FOR A SHIFT IN U-S POLICY.

VOICE: UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS RIGHT TO GIVE PROVISIONAL ENDORSEMENT TO A NEW UNITED NATIONS RESOLUTION SPONSORED BY BRITAIN AND THE NETHERLANDS THAT MAY POINT A WAY OUT OF THE IMPASSE. IN DOING SO, WASHINGTON HAS PUT ASIDE ITS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE INSISTENCE THAT SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ MUST REMAIN IN PLACE AS LONG AS SADDAM HUSSEIN HOLDS POWER.

TEXT: FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS, THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE UNITED STATES WOULD PAY THE MORE THAN ONE-BILLION DOLLARS IT OWES THE UNITED NATIONS IN BACK DUES HAS DIVIDED REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, AND THE WHITE HOUSE FROM LAWMAKERS ON CAPITOL HILL. NOW, THE SENATE MAY CLOSE TO APPROVING THE MONEY. BUT A MEASURE CONCERNING ABORTION HAS BEEN KEEPING THE AUTHORIZATION TIED UP IN KNOTS. THIS COMMENT FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:

VOICE: YOU WOULD THINK THAT THE WORLD'S LONE SUPERPOWER COULD RISE ABOVE PETTINESS AND TRANSIENT FRUSTRATIONS IN THESE MATTERS. YOU WOULD BE DISAPPOINTED MUCH OF THE TIME.

TEXT: THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING HEARINGS IN THE SENATE ON PRESIDENT CLINTON'S NOMINEE AS AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS. THE NOMINATION OF RICHARD HOLBROOKE, THE MAN CREDITED WITH NEGOTIATING AN END TO THE WAR IN BOSNIA FOUR YEARS AGO, HAS BEEN STALLED OVER QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER HE BROKE THE LAW BY LOBBYING U-S GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WHILE MAKING MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON WALL STREET. THE TIMES SAYS HIS ANSWERS TO SENATE QUESTIONING ON THE MATTER MAKE ONE WONDER WHETHER HE HAS BEEN COACHED BY PRESIDENT CLINTON.

VOICE: ONE WONDERS ... WHERE HE PICKED UP THIS CURIOUS HABIT OF NOT ANSWERING QUESTIONS DIRECTLY. IT MUST BE FROM THE MASTER OF OBFUSCATION HIMSELF, THE BIG HE.

TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS SAMPLING OF U-S NEWSPAPER EDITORIALS FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 18TH. (SIGNED)
NEB/NJS/WTW
18-Jun-99 1:47 PM EDT (1747 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[09] KOSOVO / K-L-A TORTURE ROOM (L-ONLY) BY PHILLIP SMUCKER (PRIZREN)

INTRO: GERMAN NATO FORCES HAVE DISCOVERED (FRIDAY) WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ROOM USED BY KOSOVAR REBELS TO TORTURE PRISONERS. IN THE SOUTHERN CITY OF PRIZREN, GERMAN PEACEKEEPERS FREED 15 ALBANIAN, GYPSY AND SERB PRISONERS, ALSO FINDING A 70-YEAR-OLD DEAD MAN HANDCUFFED TO A CHAIR. PHILLIP SMUCKER HAS A REPORT FROM PRIZREN, IN KOSOVO.

TEXT: GERMAN TROOPS FORCED THEIR WAY INTO A ROOM TO FIND KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY SOLDIERS GUARDING 15 PRISONERS, ONE OF THEM ALREADY DEAD.

A GERMAN ARMY SPOKESMAN, HANNS-CHRISTIAN KLASING, SAYS NATO TROOPS FOUND MALTREATED PRISONERS. HE SAYS THE DEAD MAN HAD BEEN BEATEN. ONE MALE GYPSY SAID HE HAD BEEN HELD FOR TWO DAYS AND NIGHTS WITHOUT FOOD OR WATER AFTER BEING ARRESTED BY K-L-A SOLDIERS. HE SAID THEY FORCED HIM, UNDER THREAT OF A KNIFE, TO CONFESS TO COLLABORATING WITH THE SERBIAN REGIME.

THE GERMANS DISARMED THE K-L-A SOLDIERS, TOOK THEIR NAMES AND HANDED THEM BACK TO THEIR SUPERIORS IN THE REBEL ARMY.

THIS REPORTER ALSO SAW ALBANIAN REBELS AND CIVILIANS LOOTING AND BURNING HOMES AND CHURCHES NEAR PRIZREN ON FRIDAY.

A NEW GERMAN ARMY "GET TOUGH" POLICY, TO DISARM K-L-A FIGHTERS, WAS TOO LATE TO SAVE THE LOVELY 16TH-CENTURY HOLY TRINITY SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH. THE CHURCH STILL SMOLDERED AND BURNED FRIDAY. A PILE OF CHARRED BIBLES WAS FOUND ON THE FLOOR OF THE CHURCH. BELOW, IN THE TOWN OF MUSUTISTE, AT LEAST TWO SERBIAN HOMES HAD BEEN SET ABLAZE, AS MACHINE-GUN FIRE RESOUNDED THROUGH THE HILLS.

A LOCAL K-L-A OFFICIAL SAID SERBS, WHOM HE ACCUSED OF COMMITTING WORSE ATROCITIES AGAINST ALBANIANS, WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED BACK TO THE VILLAGE.

IN THE CITY OF PRIZREN, ALBANIANS AND THE FEW REMAINING SERBS ARE EXPRESSING GRAVE CONCERNS ABOUT THE MULTI-ETHNIC FUTURE OF THEIR CITY.

K-L-A SOLDIERS WERE ALSO SPOTTED FRIDAY PLUNDERING A SERBIAN HOME. MOMENTS LATER GERMAN PEACEKEEPERS ARRIVED TO DISARM THE K-L-A SOLDIERS, SCOLDING THEM FOR ENTERING SERBIAN HOMES.

THE AREA OF PRIZREN HOLDS SOME OF THE SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH'S MOST CHERISHED SITES, INCLUDING THE RUINS OF A CATHEDRAL BUILT BY CZAR DUSHAN, A MEDIEVAL HOLY WARRIOR.

OTTOMAN RULERS LATER UNIFIED THE WEALTHY TRADING CITY WITH THE BOND OF A COMMON LANGUAGE, TURKISH, WHICH MOST RESIDENTS STILL SPEAK. (SIGNED)
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18-Jun-99 3:28 PM EDT (1928 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[10] KOSOVO / TORTURE (L-ONLY) BY EVE CONANT (PRISTINA)

INTRO: "K-FOR" TROOPS HAVE CORDONED OFF A SERB POLICE STATION IN DOWNTOWN PRISTINA, WHICH THEY SAY MAY HAVE BEEN USED AS A TORTURE CHAMBER. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT EVE CONANT REPORTS SOME OF THE EVIDENCE THE PEACEKEEPERS HAVE FOUND INCLUDES CLUBS, AXES, AND STILL-SMOLDERING PILES OF BURNING DOCUMENTS.

TEXT: THE TOP TWO FLOORS OF THE ABANDONED POLICE HEADQUARTERS ARE FILLED WITH SERB POLICE UNIFORMS, MACHINE-GUN PARTS, GRENADE CASINGS AND LEFT-OVER, ROTTING FOOD. THERE IS WATER EVERYWHERE ON THE FLOORS.

BRITISH LANCE CORPORAL GARY SIMPSON SAYS THE SERBS MAY HAVE TRASHED [DAMAGED] THE BUILDING TO DESTROY EVIDENCE.

SEE, THESE ARE UNIFORMS, SOME BODY ARMOR LEFT SCATTERED ALL AROUND. WE CAN TELL THEY LEFT IN A HURRY. WHETHER THEY INTENTIONALLY TRASHED THE PLACE OR NOT, WE DON'T KNOW. BUT WE CAME HERE AND THIS IS HOW WE FOUND IT.

ETHNIC ALBANIANS WHO LIVE NEARBY TOLD BRITISH SOLDIERS SERB POLICE TOOK ETHNIC ALBANIANS HERE AND TORTURED THEM.

IT IS DOWN BELOW, IN THE CELLAR, WHERE SOLDIERS HAVE DISCOVERED WHAT APPEAR TO BE TOOLS USED TO DO JUST THAT. THERE ARE NO LIGHTS IN THE CELLAR. CORPORAL SIMPSON USES HIS FLASHLIGHT TO POINT TO EVIDENCE SCATTERED AROUND THE SINGLE CHAIR, STRIPPED OF ITS CUSHIONS.

SEE ON THE FLOOR? BASEBALL BATS, CLUBS, WOMEN'S BRAS, CHILDREN'S CLOTHING, SHOES, CHAINS ON THE FLOOR.

ONE OF THE BASEBALL BATS LIES SNAPPED IN TWO, NEXT TO AN AXE. IN THE NEXT ROOM IS A BARE DIRTY MATTRESS ON A METAL BED-FRAME. THERE IS A LEATHER STRAP TIED TO ONE BED POST.

THERE IS A BED IN FRONT OF US WITH A WOODEN SLATE LAID ON THE BED. IN ONE OF THE CORNERS IS A LEATHER BELT. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT'S BEEN USED FOR. ACTUALLY, YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELF THAT THE BELT IS MADE ESSENTIALLY FOR HOLDING PEOPLE DOWN.

AT THE FOOT OF THE BED IS A SMALL WOODEN BOX. INSIDE ARE SHARPENED BRASS KNUCKLES AND KNIVES. IN A ROOM TO THE LEFT, HE SHINES HIS FLASHLIGHT ON SEVERAL HUNDRED LICENSE PLATES, ALL WITH PRISTINA NUMBERS.

EVERY WALL IS STRIPPED OF PLASTER. THE BRITISH SOLDIERS SUSPECT THE WALLS HAVE BEEN STRIPPED TO REMOVE ANY TRACE OF BLOOD OR FINGERPRINTS.

IN ANOTHER ROOM IS A BOILER WITH HALF-BURNED SHOES AND CLOTHING LYING ALL AROUND IT. AN AUSTRALIAN SOLDIER, PRIVATE NICK BROWN, SAYS HE SEARCHED AROUND THE ASHES AND FOUND BONES, BUT IS NOT SURE IF THEY ARE ANIMAL OR HUMAN.

LOTS OF CIVILIAN CLOTHES DOWN THERE, LOTS OF PAIRS OF SHOES. YOU SEE THIS BED? THE ROPE IS TIED TO THE CORNER HERE. WHAT IT WAS USED FOR, WHO KNOWS? IT SMELLS OF DEATH.

OUTSIDE IS AN EVEN LARGER PILE OF ASHES, STILL SMOLDERING, ADDING TO THE STENCH HERE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TENNIS SHOES STILL VISIBLE ON THE PILE, IT IS MOSTLY PAPER. THE SOLDIERS SAY THEY BELIEVE THESE ARE DOCUMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN EMPTIED FROM THE POLICE HEADQUARTER FILES, OR POSSIBLY PERSONAL DOCUMENTS OF THE PEOPLE BROUGHT HERE. (SIGNED)
NEB/EC/GE/WTW
18-Jun-99 10:54 AM EDT (1454 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[11] KOSOVO REFUGEES RETURN (L-ONLY) BY EVE CONANT (PRISTINA)

INTRO: THOUSANDS OF ETHNIC ALBANIAN REFUGEES ARE RETURNING TO KOSOVO AND TO THEIR HOMES, AS SERB MILITARY FORCES WITHDRAW. V-O-A'S EVE CONANT REPORTS FROM PRISTINA, WHERE ONE REFUGEE FAMILY HAS RETURNED HOME AFTER MONTHS OF HIDING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TEXT:

A TRACTOR PULLS A WAGON FILLED WITH 37 PEOPLE. SIX BROTHERS AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE GOING BACK HOME.

MILIAM HASANI AND HIS RELATIVES HAVE BEEN HIDING IN THE DERBICA MOUNTAINS FOR THREE MONTHS, WAITING UNTIL THE SERBS HAD GONE AND IT WAS SAFE FOR THEM THEM TO COME DOWN.

THEY ARE HUNGRY AND THIRSTY AND ARE TRAVELLING WITH ONLY A FEW LOAVES OF BREAD. THEY CHEER AS THEIR TRACTOR REACHES THE OUTSKIRTS OF PRISTINA.

BUT MILIAM HASANI, WHO HAD COME TO PRISTINA ONE DAY BEFORE TO CHECK THEIR HOUSE, NOW HAS TO BREAK THE HORRIBLE NEWS TO THEM.

THEY NOD AS IF THEY UNDERSTAND, BUT NO AMOUNT OF FOREWARNING COULD PREPARE THEM FOR WHAT THEY WOULD FIND.

ONE OLD MAN STARTS TO PICK UP PIECES OF BROKEN GLASS, EVEN THROUGH THERE IS NO CHANCE TO SAVE THIS HOME. ONE BROTHER, ILMI HASANI, WHO DID NOT SLEEP IN THE HILLS, SEES THEIR TRACTOR OUT FRONT AND COMES TO MEET THEM. HE HAS BEEN HIDING WITH NEIGHBORS AND IS DESPERATE.

HE TELLS TELLS THE FAMILY HOW HE WATCHED FROM A NEIGHBOR'S WINDOW AS SIX SERB POLICEMEN SET THE HOUSE ON FIRE. HE SAID IT WAS JUNE NINTH -- THE DAY THAT NATO AND YUGOSLAVIA SIGNED THE KOSOVO WITHDRAWAL ACCORD. (SIGNED)
NEB/EC/PCF/WTW
18-Jun-99 9:34 AM EDT (1334 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[12] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES WERE UP TODAY (FRIDAY) AS TRADERS FOCUSED ATTENTION ON COMING CORPORATE EARNINGS STATEMENTS. VOA BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT BRECK ARDERY REPORTS FROM NEW YORK.

TEXT: THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED AT 10-THOUSAND-855, UP 14 POINTS. FOR THE WEEK, THE INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE GAINED 365 POINTS OR THREE AND ONE-HALF PERCENT. THE STANDARD AND POOR'S 500 INDEX CLOSED FRIDAY AT 13 HUNDRED 42, UP THREE POINTS. THE NASDAQ INDEX GAINED THREE-QUARTERS OF ONE PERCENT.

STOCKS TRADED IN A NARROW RANGE ALL DAY. ANALYSTS SAY RECENT WORRIES ABOUT HIGHER INTEREST RATES WERE APPARENTLY DEFUSED BY THURSDAY'S STATEMENT FROM U-S CENTRAL BANK CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN. MR. GREENSPAN INDICATED THAT ANY INCREASE IN SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES WILL BE MODEST.

STOCK TRADER BERNARD MCSHERRY SAYS WITH INTEREST RATE CONCERNS OUT OF THE WAY RIGHT NOW, CORPORATE EARNINGS WILL BECOME THE CENTER OF ATTENTION.

PEOPLE ARE FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE THAT EARNINGS WILL IMPROVE, PARTICULARLY FROM OVERSEAS MARKETS. I THINK THE COMPANIES WILL DO WELL AND THE EARNINGS PERIOD WILL BE FAVORABLE.

ALTHOUGH MOST COMPANIES WILL NOT OFFICIALLY REPORT EARNINGS FOR AT LEAST THREE WEEKS, SOME HAVE ISSUED EARLY STATEMENTS ON WHAT THEY EXPECT.

THE STOCK OF THE GILLETTE PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS COMPANY FELL 10 PERCENT AFTER GILLETTE WARNED THAT ITS QUARTERLY PROFITS WILL BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED BECAUSE OF SLOWER SALES IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS. IOMEGA (EYE-OH-MAY-GA), THE COMPUTER DISK STORAGE COMPANY, IS WARNING THAT IT WILL REPORT A LOSS IN THE SECOND QUARTER DUE TO FALLING SALES OF ITS "ZIP" AND "JAZ" DRIVES. IOMEGA ALSO SAID IT PLANS TO CUT ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF ITS WORK FORCE, OR 450 PEOPLE.

THERE WAS BETTER NEWS FROM COREL, THE COMPUTER SOFTWARE MAKER. COREL SAYS ITS LATEST PROFIT FIGURES WILL BE DOUBLE WHAT ANALYSTS HAD EXPECTED.

THE STOCK OF THE K-MART DISCOUNT STORE CHAIN ROSE MORE THAN 10 PERCENT ON A REPORT ("BUSINESS WEEK") THAT A MAJOR U-S SUPERMARKET COMPANY WILL SOON BUY K-MART. THE COMPANY HAD NO COMMENT AND SEVERAL ANALYSTS SAID THEY ARE SKEPTICAL OF THE REPORT.

SOME PUBLIC RELATIONS EXPERTS ARE CRITICIZING THE COCA-COLA COMPANY FOR ITS REACTION TO A HEALTH SCARE IN BELGIUM AND FRANCE WHICH HAS LED SEVERAL EUROPEAN NATIONS TO BAN THE SALE OF COKE. ABOUT 200 PEOPLE BECAME ILL AFTER DRINKING COKE PRODUCTS. ALTHOUGH THE COMPANY HAS IDENTIFIED THE PROBLEM, SOME ANALYSTS SAY COKE HAS BEEN SLOW TO COOPERATE WITH PUBLIC HEALTH AUTHORITIES AND HAS APPEARED DEFENSIVE. ON FRIDAY, COCA-COLA CHAIRMAN DOUGLAS IVESTER TRAVELED TO BELGIUM TO TAKE CHARGE OF THE SITUATION BUT A COMPANY SPOKESMAN SAYS MR. IVESTER HAS NO PLANS TO SPEAK TO THE NEWS MEDIA.(SIGNED) NEB/NY/BA/KLSF/GM
18-Jun-99 5:17 PM EDT (2117 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[13] TURKEY / MILITARY COURT (L-ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: A MILITARY JUDGE WILL NO LONGER BE AMONG THE PANEL OF JUDGES TRYING KURDISH REBEL CHIEF ABDULLAH OCALAN. AMBERIN ZAMAN REPORTS FROM ANKARA THAT THE TURKISH PARLIAMENT VOTED OVERWHELMINGLY ON FRIDAY TO REMOVE MILITARY JUDGES FROM THE SPECIAL STATE SECURITY COURTS WHICH HANDLE "TERROR AND SECURITY" CRIMES.

TEXT: THE TURN OUT WAS HIGH AT FRIDAY'S SESSION AT THE TURKISH PARLIAMENT. LAWMAKERS BURST INTO APPLAUSE AS DEPUTY PARLIAMENT SPEAKER MURAT SOKMENOGLU ANNOUNCED BALLOT RESULTS. 423 LAWMAKERS HAD VOTED IN FAVOR OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT DISMISSING THE MILITARY OFFICER FROM THE PANEL OF JUDGES. ONLY 40 OF THOSE PRESENT HAD VOTED AGAINST THE REFORM.

THE PRESENCE OF A MILITARY OFFICER IN THE STATE SECURITY COURTS HAS LONG BEEN CRITICIZED BY WESTERN LEGAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS. THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS RULED LAST YEAR THAT THE MILITARY PRESENCE PREJUDICED THE IMPARTIALITY OF TURKEY'S SECURITY COURTS.

ANALYSTS SAY THE AMENDMENT WAS PUSHED THROUGH BECAUSE OF CONCERN THAT THE EUROPEAN COURT WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE THE VERDICT PASSED BY THE COURT TRYING KURDISH REBEL CHIEF ABDULLAH OCALAN ON TREASON CHARGES.

THE LEADER OF THE BANNED KURDISTAN WORKERS' PARTY -- OR P-K-K -- IS FACING THE DEATH PENALTY FOR LEADING A 15 YEAR LONG GUERRILLA WAR TO ESTABLISH KURDISH SELF RULE IN SOUTHEAST TURKEY. MR OCALAN'S TRIAL WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK WHEN THE DEFENSE WILL PRESENT ITS CASE.

WESTERN DIPLOMATS HERE SAY FRIDAY'S AMENDMENT IS WHAT THEY TERM AN ENCOURAGING SIGN THAT TURKEY'S NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT, LED BY LEFTIST PREMIER BULENT ECEVIT, IS SEEKING TO IMPROVE TURKEY'S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.

BUT HUMAN RIGHTS DEFENDERS SAY THE CHANGE IS MERELY COSMETIC AND THAT THE STATE SECURITY COURTS SHOULD BE BANNED ALTOGETHER. SCORES OF WRITERS, ACADEMICS AND POLITICIANS HAVE BEEN SENTENCED TO JAIL BY THE COURTS FOR EXPRESSING VIEWS DEEMED THREATENING TO THE UNITY OF THE TURKISH STATE. (SIGNED)
NEB/AZ/GE
18-Jun-99 12:01 PM EDT (1601 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[14] U-N / ANNAN / KOSOVO (L - ONLY) BY MAX RUSTON (UNITED NATIONS)

INTRO: UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY-GENERAL KOFI ANNAN IS URGING KOSOVO RESIDENTS AND REFUGEES TO STAY IN THEIR HOMES AND CAMPS UNTIL SECURITY AND HUMANITARIAN CONDITIONS IN THE YUGOSLAV PROVINCE HAVE BEEN STABILIZED. MR. ANNAN MADE THE APPEAL TODAY (FRIDAY) AT U-N HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, AS WE HEAR FROM OUR U-N CORRESPONDENT MAX RUSTON.

TEXT: MR. ANNAN'S APPEAL IS THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF EFFORTS TO STOP THE IMMEDIATE RETURN OF REFUGEES TO KOSOVO. U-N OFFICIALS SAY THOUSANDS OF REFUGEES HAVE RETURNED TO THE PROVINCE ALREADY, RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT SHORTAGES OF FOOD, HEALTH SUPPLIES AND SHELTER. THEY ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THE THREAT POSED BY LANDMINES, PLANTED BY SERBIAN FORCES.

MR. ANNAN'S APPEAL WAS READ ALOUD BY U-N SPOKESMAN FRED ECKHARD:

I APPEAL TO ALL PARTIES AND EVERY CITIZEN OF KOSOVO TO SHOW UTMOST RESTRAINT AND PATIENCE AS THE LONG AND HARD WORK OF PEACE-BUILDING AND RECONSTRUCTION BEGINS. THE UNITED NATIONS AND K-FOR ARE COMMITTED TO HELPING YOU -- THE PEOPLE OF KOSOVO -- CREATE A PEACEFUL, DEMOCRATIC AND MULTI-ETHNIC SOCIETY.

THE U-N SECRETARY-GENERAL MADE IT CLEAR HIS APPEAL IS AIMED NOT ONLY AT REFUGEES EAGER TO RETURN TO THE PROVINCE. HE IS ALSO URGING SERBS IN KOSOVO TO REMAIN IN THEIR HOMES. MR. ECKHARD:

I URGE THE KOSOVAR ALBANIAN POPULATION TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES -- BUT TO BE PATIENT AND TO DO SO WITH THE AID AND ASSISTANCE OF K-FOR AND THE UNITED NATIONS. I URGE THE SERBIAN POPULATION OF KOSOVO TO REMAIN IN THEIR HOMES AND DO THEIR PART TO RETURN KOSOVO TO A LIFE OF PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE AMONGST ALL COMMUNITIES.

THOUSANDS OF SERBS HAVE ALREADY FLED KOSOVO, FEARING RETALIATORY ATTACKS FROM RETURNING REFUGEES.

KOSOVO IS SUFFERING FROM FREQUENT WATER AND ELECTRICITY SHORTAGES. INFRASTRUCTURE AND THOUSANDS OF HOMES WERE DAMAGED DURING ATTACKS ON THE PROVINCE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. U-N OFFICIALS SAY THEY ARE TRYING TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN KOSOVO AS FAST AS POSSIBLE, SO THAT RETURNING REFUGEES WILL FACE FEWER PROBLEMS AS THEY TRY TO REBUILD THEIR LIVES. (SIGNED) NEB/UN/MPR/LSF/KL
18-Jun-99 2:48 PM EDT (1848 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[15] UNHCR KOSOVO (L-ONLY) BY LISA SCHLEIN (GENEVA)

INTRO: THE UNITED NATIONS REFUGEE AGENCY, U-N-H-C-R, SAYS THAT IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, IT HOPES TO START AN ORGANIZED RETURN OF HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF ETHNIC ALBANIAN REFUGEES FROM MACEDONIA AND ALBANIA TO KOSOVO. LISA SCHLEIN IN GENEVA REPORTS THE U-N AGENCY IS MEANWHILE ADVISING THE REFUGEES NOT TO GO HOME BEFORE THEN, BECAUSE CONDITIONS IN KOSOVO ARE STILL TOO DANGEROUS.

TEXT: THE U-N REFUGEE AGENCY SAYS DESPITE THE MANY DANGERS, IT IS UNABLE TO STOP THOUSANDS OF REFUGEES FROM SPONTANEOUSLY RETURNING TO KOSOVO. //OPT// THE AGENCY ESTIMATES MORE THAN 50-THOUSAND REFUGEES IN ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA HAVE GONE BACK TO KOSOVO IN THE PAST FOUR DAYS. //END OPT//

U-N ASSISTANT HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES, SOREN JESSEN-PETERSEN, HAS JUST RETURNED FROM A SIX DAY VISIT TO THE AREA. HE SAYS THE AGENCY DOES NOT WANT TO ENCOURAGE THE REFUGEES TO RETURN JUST YET. BUT, HE SAYS, IT HAS TO FACE REALITY. THEREFORE, THE U-N-H-C-R RELUCTANTLY BEGAN CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS ON FRIDAY FROM, BLACE, MACEDONIA AND KUKES, ALBANIA TO OFFER SOME HELP TO THOSE REFUGEES WHO INSIST ON RETURNING HOME ON THEIR OWN.

BUT, WE ARE DOING IT FRANKLY MINDFUL OF THAT OUR CROSS-OPERATIONS MIGHT BE SENDING SIGNALS THAT MIGHT SOUND CONTRADICTORY -- BECAUSE WE STILL BELIEVE THAT IT IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE REFUGEES TO WAIT FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

MR. JESSEN-PETERSEN SAYS THE AGENCY IS ALLOWING THE REFUGEES TO TAKE WITH THEM PLASTIC SHEETING AND TENTS. HE SAYS THOSE GOING BACK NOW ARE FAIRLY WELL-OFF. THEY ARE RETURNING IN THEIR OWN CARS OR TRACTORS, LOADED WITH HOUSEHOLD GOODS. HE SAYS AT THE CURRENT RATE OF RETURNS, HE EXPECTS THE REFUGEE CAMPS IN KUKES WILL BE PRACTICALLY EMPTIED IN ABOUT A WEEK. HE SAYS HE ALSO EXPECTS SOME CAMPS IN MACEDONIA TO BE DESERTED FAIRLY SOON. NEVERTHELESS, THE REFUGEE CHIEF SAYS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF OTHER KOSOVAR REFUGEES WILL NEED TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER HELP TO GO HOME. HE SAYS THE AGENCY BELIEVES IT WILL BE SAFE AND PRACTICAL TO BEGIN REPATRIATIONS IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

I BELIEVE, AND THAT IS PROBABLY MY MAIN FINDING AFTER FIVE, SIX DAYS ON THE GROUND, THESE RETURN MOVEMENTS WILL MOVE VERY VERY QUICKLY. BY WINTER, WE MAY HAVE A SITUATION WHERE VERY VERY FEW REFUGEES ARE LEFT IN THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE RETURN OVER THE LAST TWO OR THREE DAYS WILL BE PICKING UP A MOMENTUM OF ITS OWN.

MR. JESSEN-PETERSEN SAYS THE OPERATION WILL BE VERY COSTLY. HE SAYS THE AGENCY HAS ONLY ONE WEEK'S WORTH OF CASH ON HAND. HE APPEALS TO DONORS TO COME FORTH WITH MORE MONEY QUICKLY. ON ANOTHER ISSUE, MR. JESSEN-PETERSEN SAYS PRELIMINARY FINDINGS INDICATE THAT THE NUMBER OF INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE IN KOSOVO MAY BE FAR LOWER THAN THE 600-THOUSAND THAT NATO REPORTED DURING THE WAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/LS/PCF
18-Jun-99 9:22 AM EDT (1322 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[16] WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO

ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.

THIS WEEK, "WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY.

HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECENT KOSOVO PEACE AGREEMENT AND AUTHORIZED BY A U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION, A FIFTY THOUSAND MEMBER PEACE-KEEPING FORCE, WITH NATO AT ITS CORE, HAS BEEN MOVING INTO KOSOVO, AS YUGOSLAV MILITARY AND POLICE WERE WITHDRAWING TO MEET THE JUNE 20TH DEADLINE. THE AGREEMENT STIPULATES AUTONOMY FOR THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS AND SOVEREIGNTY OVER KOSOVO FOR YUGOSLAVIA. SOME OBSERVERS THINK THESE TWO GOALS ARE INCOMPATIBLE. THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES FACING THE PEACE-KEEPING FORCES ARE THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CIVIL ORDER IN KOSOVO AND THE PROVISION OF HUMANITARIAN HELP FOR THE THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WHO LOST EVERYTHING IN THE WAR.

JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN KOSOVO ARE THREE EXPERTS. LAUREN VAN METRE IS PROGRAM OFFICER FOR THE BALKANS AND CENTRAL EUROPE AT THE U.S. PEACE INSTITUTE. GEORGE KENNEY IS A FORMER U.S. FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICER WHO RESIGNED FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT IN PROTEST OVER U.S. POLICY IN THE BALKANS IN 1992. HE NOW WRITES AND CONSULTS ON THE BALKANS AND EUROPEAN SECURITY. AND ARIEL COHEN IS SENIOR POLICY ANALYST AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

LAUREN VAN METRE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE PROSPECTS ARE THAT THE NEW PEACE AGREEMENT WILL BE ABLE TO BE IMPLEMENTED SUCCESSFULLY IN TERMS OF THE OBJECTIVES THAT IT SETS OUT? VAN METRE: THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS TO CONSIDER RIGHT NOW. NUMBER ONE, WE ARE NOT QUITE SURE WHAT PEACE AGREEMENT WE HAVE ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW. ADMINISTRATIONS ARE TALKING ABOUT ADHERING TO RAMBOUILLET. WE ARE NOT YET SURE THAT THE K-L-A [KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY] HAS AGREED TO THE ADHERENCE OF RAMBOUILLET. THE SECOND PROBLEM WE ARE FACING IS ABSOLUTE CHAOS ON THE GROUND, AS WE SEE SERBIAN TROOPS BLOCKING THE ROADS, RUSSIAN TROOPS IN PRISTINA, REFUGEES POURING OVER THE BORDERS. IT HAS YET TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN INSTILL ANY SORT OF ORGANIZATION AND COHERENCE TO WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND.

HOST: IN WHOSE MIND DOES CONFUSION EXIST OVER WHICH PEACE AGREEMENT IS BEING IMPLEMENTED? IT'S THE ONE BETWEEN NATO, YUGOSLAVIA AND RUSSIA, AND THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION THAT HAS AUTHORIZED THE FIFTY-THOUSAND PEACE KEEPING FORCE. VAN METRE: THAT'S CORRECT, BUT THE K-L-A NEVER SIGNED IT.

HOST: GEORGE KENNEY, HOW BIG A PROBLEM IS THAT? KENNEY: I THINK YOUR LEAD HAD IT EXACTLY RIGHT. WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW INCOMPATIBLE OUR GOALS ARE. AND THE ONE THING THAT RAMBOUILLET DID, WHICH THE CURRENT PEACE PLAN DOESN'T, IS PROVIDE FOR A KIND OF MECHANISM TO DEAL WITH THE INDEPENDENCE ISSUE IN KOSOVO. I DON'T THINK THAT THE RAMBOUILLET PLAN DEALT WITH IT EFFECTIVELY, BUT NEVERTHELESS THEY RECOGNIZED IT AS AN ISSUE. THIS PLAN REALLY DOESN'T. IT PUTS OFF ANY CONSIDERATION OF INDEPENDENCE. AND THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM BECAUSE FOR THE MOMENT THE KOSOVO ALBANIANS ARE HAPPY TO BE BACK HOME. BUT GIVE THEM A LITTLE WHILE, AND THEY'LL BE DEMANDING INDEPENDENCE AGAIN. AND IT MAY TURN OUT THAT NATO HAS SIMPLY FILLED THE SERBS' SHOES, AND IT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONTENTIOUS ALBANIANS IN THE SAME WAY THE SERBS DID.

HOST: HOWEVER, MR. KENNEY, SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT NATO HAS FILLED THE K-L-A SHOES BECAUSE WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND IN KOSOVO TODAY IS THAT THE SERBS ARE ALL LEAVING. KENNEY: THE PENDULUM HAS SWUNG THE OTHER WAY, THAT'S RIGHT. IN THE LONG RUN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO LIVE WITH THE REALITY THAT EVERYONE IN KOSOVO WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT FROM SERBIA. AND WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO MAKE THAT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TEARING KOSOVO AWAY FROM SERBIA, AGAINST THE WISHES OF BOTH THE SERBS AND THE RUSSIANS, AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD. IF WE CAN BRIDGE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SERBIAN CLAIMS TO SOVEREIGNTY AND KOSOVAR DESIRES FOR INDEPENDENCE, WE'LL HAVE SUCCEEDED.

HOST: ARIEL COHEN, IT SEEMS THERE WAS AN AGREEMENT THIS TIME, WHEREAS THERE WASN'T AT RAMBOUILLET, PRECISELY BECAUSE NATO DROPPED THE REQUIREMENT FOR A REFERENDUM FOR INDEPENDENCE IN KOSOVO. COHEN: RIGHT, THEN YOU SEE THE K-L-A COMING BACK STRONGER THAN EVER, THE SERBS EXITING, THE GOVERNMENT OF YUGOSLAVIA DE FACTO LOSING CONTROL OVER KOSOVO. THEN THE QUESTION ARISES: IF THIS IS A SOVEREIGNTY OF YUGOSLAVIA OVER KOSOVO, HOW IS IT EXERCISED? THEN WE ARE MOVING SEVERAL STEPS CLOSER TO DE FACTO INDEPENDENCE OF KOSOVO. AND I AM CONCERNED WITH WHAT MAY COME NEXT. WHAT ARE, INDEED, THE ASPIRATIONS OF ALBANIANS ELSEWHERE, IN MACEDONIA, IN ALBANIA PROPER? AND WHETHER WE ARE MAKING THE FIRST STEP TO A GREATER ALBANIA.

HOST: ACCORDING TO ONE NEWSPAPER REPORT, THE FLAG FLYING OVER THE K-L-A HEADQUARTERS IN PRISTINA WAS AN ALBANIAN FLAG. MANY PEOPLE SAY THE K-L-A DOESN'T REPRESENT ALL OF THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS AND THERE IS A BROAD RANGE OF ALBANIANS AMONGST THEM. BUT WHAT CHANCE WILL THERE BE FOR THOSE OPINIONS TO EXPRESS THEMSELVES WHEN THE K-L-A ARE THE ONES WITH THE GUNS? VAN METRE: I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY RIGHT NOW THAT THE K-L-A DOMINATES THE LANDSCAPE IN TERMS OF KOSOVAR ALBANIAN LEADERSHIP RIGHT NOW. WE'VE YET TO SEE, FIRST OF ALL, WHICH KOSOVO LEADERS REMAIN TO TAKE UP LEADERSHIP IN KOSOVO.

HOST: WHAT ABOUT MR. [IBRAHIM] RUGOVA, WHO IS THE TITULAR ELECTED LEADER? VAN METRE: I THINK MR. RUGOVA IS SPENT, FRANKLY. I THINK THAT EVEN BEFORE THE CRISIS PEOPLE WERE BEGINNING TO DOUBT THAT HIS POLICY OF NON-VIOLENCE WOULD BRING KOSOVAR ALBANIANS WHAT THEY WANTED, WHICH WAS INDEPENDENCE. SECOND, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN -- THE RATHER STRANGE EPISODE THAT HAPPENED IN BELGRADE -- HOW COMPLICIT MR. RUGOVA WAS IN ANY OF THOSE STATEMENTS.

HOST: YOU MEAN WHEN HE APPEARED WITH [SLOBODAN] MILOSEVIC ON TELEVISION. VAN METRE: YES. I MEAN, WE WERE PRETTY SURE THAT IT WAS UNDER DURESS. NEVERTHELESS, IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EXACTLY WAS GOING ON IN BELGRADE. FOR MANY KOSOVO ALBANIANS, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW STRONGLY MR. RUGOVA FOUGHT THE SITUATION HE WAS IN. I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEM. IN ADDITION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE MODERATE LEADERS OF THE KOSOVAR ALBANIAN PEOPLE, SUCH AS VETON SURROI, HAVE SURVIVED THIS CRISIS AND CAN COME ON TO LEAD THE ALBANIANS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE TREMENDOUS ATROCITIES THAT HAVE GONE ON. I IMAGINE THE POPULATION IS RATHER RADICALIZED RIGHT NOW.

HOST: AND WHAT, BY THE WAY, IS MEANT BY THE NATO OBLIGATION, ACCORDING TO THIS AGREEMENT, TO "DEMILITARIZE" THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY, AS OPPOSED TO "DISARM"? DOES ANYONE UNDERSTAND THAT DISTINCTION? KENNEY: WE REALLY DON'T KNOW. THAT PROVIDES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE NATO FORCES TO FUDGE. AND SO YOU HAVE THE GERMANS IGNORING THE K-L-A BRANDISHING WEAPONS, AND THEN POUNCING ON SERBS WHO BRANDISH WEAPONS. THE U.S. UNITS STARTING TO TAKE SMALL ARMS AWAY FROM SOME K-L-A UNITS. SO THERE SEEMS TO BE A HODGEPODGE OF INTERPRETATIONS. WHETHER WE GET TO A SINGLE VIEW OF THIS PROBABLY DEPENDS ON THE POLITICAL RELATIONS THAT EVOLVE BETWEEN K-L-A LEADERS AND THE NATO LEADERS. COHEN: I WOULD ADD THAT ONE WAY TO INTERPRET THAT IS THAT THE K-L-A WOULD NOT HAVE ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN SMALL ARMS, BUT THEY DID NOT HAVE MUCH BUT SMALL ARMS ANYWAY. KENNEY: THEY HAD SOME HIGH TECH STUFF, THOUGH, HIGH TECH SMALL ARMS. COHEN: IN DISTINCTION BETWEEN DEMILITARIZATION AND DISARMAMENT, YOU WOULD SAY DISARMAMENT IS ZERO ARMS, AS OPPOSED TO DEMILITARIZATION WHEN THEY ARE NOT IN MILITARY FORMATIONS. BUT THEN, OF COURSE, IF THEY ARE A PREDOMINANT FORCE, AND IF THEY ARE, ON TOP OF THAT, A GUERRILLA FORCE THAT MAY GO UNDERGROUND AGAIN, EVEN WITH NATO PRESENT IN KOSOVO.

HOST: FOR WHAT REASON? COHEN: FOR WHATEVER REASON OF THEIR NATIONAL ASPIRATION THAT THEY MAY HAVE. SO CONTROL OF A NATIONAL LIBERATION MOVEMENT BY AN EXTERNAL FORCE IS A VERY COMPLICATED ISSUE INDEED, AS WE'VE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM VIETNAM TO AFGHANISTAN.

HOST: WE ARE TALKING ABOUT OUTCOMES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEAR FUTURE BUT, OF COURSE, ALL OF THESE THINGS COULD BE FORSTALLED IF, INDEED, WHAT WE HAVE IS A U-N/NATO PROTECTORATE IN KOSOVO FOR AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE OF A CYPRUS-STYLE OPERATION, WHICH HAS BEEN IN OPERATION SINCE 1974. COHEN: BUT THEN AGAIN, THE PEACE AGREEMENT IS NOT FORESEEING A PROTECTORATE. THE WORD PROTECTORATE DOESN'T APPEAR THERE. WHAT IT DOES FORSEE ARE VERY SPECIFIC ISSUES, INCLUDING RETURN OF THE REFUGEES AND SOME KIND OF CONTINUATION OF YUGOSLAV SOVEREIGNTY. LET ME CAUTION THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BREAKUP OF YUGOSLAVIA AND THE SOVIET UNION, ANY MAJOR CHANGES OF BORDERS IN EUROPE SINCE THE END OF WORLD WAR TWO. AND TO START NOW IN KOSOVO, OR TO ADD KOSOVO TO THE BREAKUP OF YUGOSLAVIA, IS AGAIN A VERY SERIOUS AND CRITICAL STEP. WE REALLY HAVE TO THINK THROUGH VERY CAREFULLY WHAT ARE THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION AT LARGE, FOR THE BALKANS AND FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE.

HOST: LET'S DO THAT. LET'S THINK THEM THROUGH. LAUREN, ARE YOU WILLING TO THINK THOSE THROUGH? VAN METRE: YES, I THINK AN ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION OF A PROTECTORATE IS WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN BEFORE NATO FORCES ARE WILLING TO STEP DOWN FROM KOSOVO. I DON'T THINK KOSOVO IS GOING TO BE SECURE AS LONG AS MR. MILOSEVIC STAYS IN POWER IN BELGRADE. AND THAT MAY BE ONE INDICATOR IN TERMS OF AN END STATE. SECOND I THINK WE ALSO HAVE TO SEE WHAT TYPE OF KOSOVAR ALBANIAN LEADERSHIP EMERGES OUT OF THIS CRISIS. I WOULD HESITATE TO SAY THIS, BUT I THINK AT THIS POINT THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S MOVE TOWARDS EARLY ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO MAY ACTUALLY BE DETRIMENTAL IN THE SENSE THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY GET THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP THAT WE MAY NOT WANT IN KOSOVO. SO I WOULD SAY THAT'S ALSO AN INDICATOR OF HOW SOON WE'LL BE LEAVING. KENNEY: I WOULD TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENT VIEW. I THINK THAT WE'VE MOVED FROM THE STAGE OF HAVING THE BALKAN CRISIS BE ABOUT A SERBIAN PROBLEM TO IT BEGINNING TO BE ABOUT AN ALBANIAN PROBLEM. HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH THIS ASPIRATION FOR A LARGER ALBANIA, NOT JUST IN KOSOVO, BUT IN ALBANIA AND IN WESTERN MACEDONIA? I THINK AT SOME POINT WE HAVE TO REDRAW BORDERS. BUT HOW DO WE DO THAT? DO WE DO THAT AFTER THE FACT, OR DO WE DO IT WITH SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE PARTIES REGIONALLY? I THINK THE LATTER IS THE BETTER COURSE. BUT IF WE SAY THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE NO CHANGES IN BORDERS AND THAT KOSOVO CAN'T BE INDEPENDENT AND CAN'T GO ON TO MERGE WITH ITS ALBANIAN NEIGHBORS, IT WILL BOTTLE UP THE CRISIS. AND PROBABLY IT WILL EXPLODE AGAIN THE SAME WAY THAT BOSNIA EXPLODED, OR THAT YUGOSLAVIA BEGAN TO BREAK UP IN THE FIRST PLACE.

HOST: ARIEL COHEN, SOME PEOPLE SPECULATE THAT THE PRESENCE OF RUSSIAN TROOPS IN KOSOVO AND THEIR UNANNOUNCED ARRIVAL, AND THE RATHER PECULIAR WAY IN WHICH THEY CAME THERE, MAY BE A PLAY FOR WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A PARTITION OF KOSOVO, WITH THE RUSSIANS PROTECTING THE SERBS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THAT PART OF YUGOSLAVIA. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT THESIS? COHEN: I THINK THE CURRENT TROOP STRENGTH IS INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH AN OUTCOME.

HOST: THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT BRINGING THOUSANDS OF RUSSIAN TROOPS. COHEN: RIGHT. IF YOU REALLY WANTED TO PREVENT SUCH AN OUTCOME, YOU WOULD NOT PUT THE RUSSIAN SECTOR IN THE NORTH. KENNEY: I AGREE. PUT IT ON THE BORDER WITH ALBANIA. COHEN: OR MACEDONIA, WHATEVER. BUT YOU HAVE ANOTHER PROBLEM, AND THAT IS THAT THE ALBANIANS DON'T WANT TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR THE RUSSIAN SOLDIERS. SO THAT'S A PREDICAMENT. AND FINALLY, IF THE SERBS GET THE MONASTERIES AND WHATEVER TERRITORY OF KOSOVO THAT IS HISTORICALLY SERB WITH A CURRENT SERB POPULATION, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY A VERY NEGATIVE OUTCOME FOR MILOSEVIC AND FOR SERBIA.

HOST: HOW ABOUT FOR RUSSIA? WHAT ARE RUSSIA'S INTERESTS IN THIS? COHEN: I AM NOT SURE RUSSIA KNOWS WHAT ITS INTERESTS ARE. ON ONE HAND, RUSSIA IS PLAYING A GREAT POWER CARD. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO DO THAT WHEN YOUR G-D-P IS THE SIZE OF BELGIUM. ON THE OTHER HAND, RUSSIA DESPERATELY NEEDS ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE FROM THE WEST AND IT NEEDS TO PLAY NICE TO WASHINGTON. SO IT IS A DILEMMA IN MOSCOW. AND ON TOP OF THAT THE MILITARY, WHICH IS SMARTING FROM ITS DEFEATS IN CHECHNYA, ITS DETERIORATING CONDITION, ITS VERY LOW BUDGETS, WANTS TO SHOW TO BORIS YELTSIN THAT THEY ARE THE POWER WITHIN RUSSIA AND WITHIN RUSSIAN POLITICS TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. KENNEY: DO YOU THINK THE RUSSIANS ARE GENUINELY CONCERNED THAT NATO MIGHT TRY TO UNDERTAKE SOME MORE ACTIVITIES, AND CLOSER TO RUSSIA'S NEIGHBORHOOD? COHEN: THREE MONTHS AGO I WOULD HAVE SAID THAT'S LUDICROUS, BECAUSE NATO SPENT YEARS CONVINCING THE RUSSIANS THAT IT'S A PURELY DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE. AND ALL RUSSIAN OBJECTIONS TO NATO ENLARGEMENT ARE RIDICULOUS. HOWEVER, AFTER THE BALKAN ACTION, I WILL BE VERY CAREFUL WHAT TO ADVISE MY RUSSIAN FRIENDS, OR FOR THAT MATTER, WHAT TO ADVISE NATO HEADQUARTERS IN TERMS OF THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE RUSSIANS, BECAUSE NOW, FRANKLY, NATO CREDIBILITY WITH THE RUSSIANS IS SHOT. NOBODY BELIEVES THEM ANYMORE.

HOST: I WANT TO GET ON TO ONE POINT THAT LAUREN VAN METRE RAISED. THAT IS THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. THERE HAVE BEEN REPEATED STATEMENTS BY THE UNITED STATES THAT THERE WILL BE NO AID TO YUGOSLAVIA SO LONG AS HE REMAINS HEAD OF STATE, WHEREAS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF AID IN REBUILDING KOSOVO. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS HERE FOR HIS REMAINING IN OFFICE? THE HEAD OF THE ORTHODOX CHURCH IN YUGOSLAVIA HAS CALLED FOR HIS RESIGNATION. I BELIEVE THAT IT IS WITHIN SIX MONTHS OR SO THEY HAVE TO HAVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN YUGOSLAVIA, OR YOU COULD CORRECT ME THERE. VAN METRE: NEXT YEAR.

HOST: NEXT YEAR. CAN HE BE REMOVED PEACEFULLY? IS THERE ANY PROSPECT OF HIS RESIGNING? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF HIS STAYING THERE AS AN INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL? KENNEY: I THINK IT IS A TERRIBLE MISTAKE FOR WASHINGTON TO IMPOSE FURTHER SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON YUGOSLAVIA. WE ARE GUARANTEEING THAT MILOSEVIC HAS THE MAXIMUM CHANCE FOR STAYING AT POWER. IF YOU LOOK AT SANCTIONS AROUND THE WORLD, AT EVERY SINGLE CASE FROM CASTRO TO GADHAFI TO, YOU NAME IT. . . COHEN: SADDAM HUSSEIN. KENNEY: SANCTIONS HELP DICTATORS TO STAY AT POWER. NOW ON THE OTHER HAND, HE HAS BEEN INDICTED BY THE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL IN THE HAGUE AND THERE IS DISSENT. BUT UNFORTUNATELY ONE OF THE GREAT TRAGEDIES OF YUGOSLAVIA IS THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS NEVER AMOUNTED TO VERY MUCH SINCE TITO'S DEATH.

HOST: IN 1996-97, THERE WERE HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN THE STREETS PROTESTING. KENNEY: AND THEN THE LEADERS ALL WENT AT EACH OTHER THROATS. IT WAS PATHETIC. THERE IS NOBODY NOW, AT THE MODERATE SIDE, WHO IS REALLY A CHALLENGE TO MILOSEVIC. INSTEAD OF CUTTING OFF YUGOSLAVIA, WE SHOULD TRY TO EMBRACE THEM AND BUILD UP A MIDDLE CLASS, AND BUILD UP SOME ALTERNATIVES. COHEN: BUILDING UP A MIDDLE CLASS IN YUGOSLAVIA IS LIKE BUILDING A MIDDLE CLASS IN RUSSIA. IT CAN TAKE TEN YEARS, TWENTY YEARS, THIRTY YEARS. IN THE MEANTIME, IF THERE ARE ELECTIONS, IF MILOSEVIC IS NOT RUNNING FOR WHATEVER REASON -- THE CHURCH IS AGAINST HIM --THE QUESTION IS: WOULDN'T YUGOSLAVIA GO FURTHER IN THE NATIONALIST DIRECTION? I AM NOT SURE THAT THE CHURCH'S OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC IS NOT BECAUSE MILOSEVIC DIDN'T STAND UP AND FIGHT, OR BECAUSE THE MONASTERIES NOW MAY BE UNDER NATO CONTROL. I AM NOT SURE WHAT IS THE MOTIVATION OF THE PATRIARCH IN BELGRADE FOR THAT.

HOST: LAUREN VAN METRE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE, MILOSEVIC REMAINING THERE? AND WHAT SHOULD BE THE U.S. POLICY IN RESPONSE? VAN METRE: I AGREE THAT WE SHOULD BE ENGAGING, NOT NECESSARILY MR. MILOSEVIC, BUT THE SERBIAN PEOPLE. I THINK IT'S A MISTAKE.

HOST: HOW DO YOU DO THAT? VAN METRE: THERE'S NUMBER OF WAYS YOU CAN DO IT. WE'VE ACTUALLY BEEN VERY GOOD. EASTERN EUROPE IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF ENGAGING GRASSROOTS MOVEMENTS AND CULTIVATING YOUNG DEMOCRATIC LEADERS. YES, THE PAYOFF MAY BE TEN YEARS FROM NOW, BUT IT WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO START. I THINK WE HAVE A VERY HOPEFUL SIGN IN MONTENEGRO WITH THE [MILO] DJUKANOVIC GOVERNMENT THERE THAT PERHAPS, IF USED CORRECTLY, CAN BE USED AS LEVERAGE ON THE GOVERNMENT AND THE FRY [FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA]. THESE PEOPLE NEED TO BE SUPPORTED. AND LASTLY, I'LL SAY WE HAD A CONFERENCE RECENTLY WITH BALKAN LEADERS FROM THE REGION. AND THEIR READ ON ALL THIS IS: DON'T ISOLATE SERBIA. THEY NEED SERBIA FOR THEIR OWN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REJUVENATION, AND IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO DO SO [TO ISOLATE IT]. COHEN: WHAT I'M BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT IS THAT WE WILL TURN THIS INTO THE WEST VERSUS ORTHODOXY. I REALIZE THAT, FOR EXAMPLE, BULGARIANS AND, TO CERTAIN EXTENT, THE GREEK ELITE WERE WITH NATO. THE GREEK POPULATION WAS, OF COURSE, AGAINST. BUT THIS IDEA OF CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS -- EVEN IF IT'S NOT HAPPENING -- YOU HAVE TO KEEP IT IN MIND AND PREVENT UKRAINIANS, RUSSIANS, BELORUSSIANS, ETC., FROM DESIGNING IN THEIR MINDS SOME GREAT COALITION OF SLAVIC ORTHODOXY, WHICH NEVER EXISTED IN TRUTH. BUT THAT SHOULDN'T APPEAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY. WE DON'T WANT THAT TO HAPPEN.

HOST: GEORGE KENNEY, A CLOSING THOUGHT FROM YOU. KENNEY: WELL, WE'VE MADE SO MANY MISTAKES IN KOSOVO AND IN BOSNIA, I'M AFRAID THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MAKE MISTAKES. AND WE MAY PROVIDE INCENTIVES FOR PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF KOSOVO AND ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA TO LEVERAGE THOSE MISTAKES INTO FURTHER INTERVENTIONS. I WOULD HOPE WE CAN PULL OUT OF THIS AND ACHIEVE SOMETHING THAT'S SELF-SUSTAINING AND STABLE ON ITS OWN, BUT I DOUBT IT.

HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- LAUREN VAN METRE FROM THE U.S. PEACE INSTITUTE; WRITER AND CONSULTANT GEORGE KENNEY; AND ARIEL COHEN FROM THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN KOSOVO. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
18-Jun-99 10:57 AM EDT (1457 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[17] WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO

ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.

THIS WEEK, "WINNING THE PEACE IN KOSOVO." HERE IS YOUR HOST, ROBERT REILLY.

HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECENT KOSOVO PEACE AGREEMENT AND AUTHORIZED BY A U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION, A FIFTY THOUSAND MEMBER PEACE-KEEPING FORCE, WITH NATO AT ITS CORE, HAS BEEN MOVING INTO KOSOVO, AS YUGOSLAV MILITARY AND POLICE WERE WITHDRAWING TO MEET THE JUNE 20TH DEADLINE. THE AGREEMENT STIPULATES AUTONOMY FOR THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS AND SOVEREIGNTY OVER KOSOVO FOR YUGOSLAVIA. SOME OBSERVERS THINK THESE TWO GOALS ARE INCOMPATIBLE. THE MOST IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES FACING THE PEACE-KEEPING FORCES ARE THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CIVIL ORDER IN KOSOVO AND THE PROVISION OF HUMANITARIAN HELP FOR THE THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE WHO LOST EVERYTHING IN THE WAR.

JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN KOSOVO ARE THREE EXPERTS. LAUREN VAN METRE IS PROGRAM OFFICER FOR THE BALKANS AND CENTRAL EUROPE AT THE U.S. PEACE INSTITUTE. GEORGE KENNEY IS A FORMER U.S. FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICER WHO RESIGNED FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT IN PROTEST OVER U.S. POLICY IN THE BALKANS IN 1992. HE NOW WRITES AND CONSULTS ON THE BALKANS AND EUROPEAN SECURITY. AND ARIEL COHEN IS SENIOR POLICY ANALYST AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

LAUREN VAN METRE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE PROSPECTS ARE THAT THE NEW PEACE AGREEMENT WILL BE ABLE TO BE IMPLEMENTED SUCCESSFULLY IN TERMS OF THE OBJECTIVES THAT IT SETS OUT? VAN METRE: THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS TO CONSIDER RIGHT NOW. NUMBER ONE, WE ARE NOT QUITE SURE WHAT PEACE AGREEMENT WE HAVE ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW. ADMINISTRATIONS ARE TALKING ABOUT ADHERING TO RAMBOUILLET. WE ARE NOT YET SURE THAT THE K-L-A [KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY] HAS AGREED TO THE ADHERENCE OF RAMBOUILLET. THE SECOND PROBLEM WE ARE FACING IS ABSOLUTE CHAOS ON THE GROUND, AS WE SEE SERBIAN TROOPS BLOCKING THE ROADS, RUSSIAN TROOPS IN PRISTINA, REFUGEES POURING OVER THE BORDERS. IT HAS YET TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN INSTILL ANY SORT OF ORGANIZATION AND COHERENCE TO WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND.

HOST: IN WHOSE MIND DOES CONFUSION EXIST OVER WHICH PEACE AGREEMENT IS BEING IMPLEMENTED? IT'S THE ONE BETWEEN NATO, YUGOSLAVIA AND RUSSIA, AND THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION THAT HAS AUTHORIZED THE FIFTY-THOUSAND PEACE KEEPING FORCE. VAN METRE: THAT'S CORRECT, BUT THE K-L-A NEVER SIGNED IT.

HOST: GEORGE KENNEY, HOW BIG A PROBLEM IS THAT? KENNEY: I THINK YOUR LEAD HAD IT EXACTLY RIGHT. WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW INCOMPATIBLE OUR GOALS ARE. AND THE ONE THING THAT RAMBOUILLET DID, WHICH THE CURRENT PEACE PLAN DOESN'T, IS PROVIDE FOR A KIND OF MECHANISM TO DEAL WITH THE INDEPENDENCE ISSUE IN KOSOVO. I DON'T THINK THAT THE RAMBOUILLET PLAN DEALT WITH IT EFFECTIVELY, BUT NEVERTHELESS THEY RECOGNIZED IT AS AN ISSUE. THIS PLAN REALLY DOESN'T. IT PUTS OFF ANY CONSIDERATION OF INDEPENDENCE. AND THAT'S A BIG PROBLEM BECAUSE FOR THE MOMENT THE KOSOVO ALBANIANS ARE HAPPY TO BE BACK HOME. BUT GIVE THEM A LITTLE WHILE, AND THEY'LL BE DEMANDING INDEPENDENCE AGAIN. AND IT MAY TURN OUT THAT NATO HAS SIMPLY FILLED THE SERBS' SHOES, AND IT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONTENTIOUS ALBANIANS IN THE SAME WAY THE SERBS DID.

HOST: HOWEVER, MR. KENNEY, SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT NATO HAS FILLED THE K-L-A SHOES BECAUSE WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND IN KOSOVO TODAY IS THAT THE SERBS ARE ALL LEAVING. KENNEY: THE PENDULUM HAS SWUNG THE OTHER WAY, THAT'S RIGHT. IN THE LONG RUN, I THINK WE WILL HAVE TO LIVE WITH THE REALITY THAT EVERYONE IN KOSOVO WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT FROM SERBIA. AND WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO MAKE THAT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TEARING KOSOVO AWAY FROM SERBIA, AGAINST THE WISHES OF BOTH THE SERBS AND THE RUSSIANS, AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD. IF WE CAN BRIDGE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SERBIAN CLAIMS TO SOVEREIGNTY AND KOSOVAR DESIRES FOR INDEPENDENCE, WE'LL HAVE SUCCEEDED.

HOST: ARIEL COHEN, IT SEEMS THERE WAS AN AGREEMENT THIS TIME, WHEREAS THERE WASN'T AT RAMBOUILLET, PRECISELY BECAUSE NATO DROPPED THE REQUIREMENT FOR A REFERENDUM FOR INDEPENDENCE IN KOSOVO. COHEN: RIGHT, THEN YOU SEE THE K-L-A COMING BACK STRONGER THAN EVER, THE SERBS EXITING, THE GOVERNMENT OF YUGOSLAVIA DE FACTO LOSING CONTROL OVER KOSOVO. THEN THE QUESTION ARISES: IF THIS IS A SOVEREIGNTY OF YUGOSLAVIA OVER KOSOVO, HOW IS IT EXERCISED? THEN WE ARE MOVING SEVERAL STEPS CLOSER TO DE FACTO INDEPENDENCE OF KOSOVO. AND I AM CONCERNED WITH WHAT MAY COME NEXT. WHAT ARE, INDEED, THE ASPIRATIONS OF ALBANIANS ELSEWHERE, IN MACEDONIA, IN ALBANIA PROPER? AND WHETHER WE ARE MAKING THE FIRST STEP TO A GREATER ALBANIA.

HOST: ACCORDING TO ONE NEWSPAPER REPORT, THE FLAG FLYING OVER THE K-L-A HEADQUARTERS IN PRISTINA WAS AN ALBANIAN FLAG. MANY PEOPLE SAY THE K-L-A DOESN'T REPRESENT ALL OF THE KOSOVAR ALBANIANS AND THERE IS A BROAD RANGE OF ALBANIANS AMONGST THEM. BUT WHAT CHANCE WILL THERE BE FOR THOSE OPINIONS TO EXPRESS THEMSELVES WHEN THE K-L-A ARE THE ONES WITH THE GUNS? VAN METRE: I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY RIGHT NOW THAT THE K-L-A DOMINATES THE LANDSCAPE IN TERMS OF KOSOVAR ALBANIAN LEADERSHIP RIGHT NOW. WE'VE YET TO SEE, FIRST OF ALL, WHICH KOSOVO LEADERS REMAIN TO TAKE UP LEADERSHIP IN KOSOVO.

HOST: WHAT ABOUT MR. [IBRAHIM] RUGOVA, WHO IS THE TITULAR ELECTED LEADER? VAN METRE: I THINK MR. RUGOVA IS SPENT, FRANKLY. I THINK THAT EVEN BEFORE THE CRISIS PEOPLE WERE BEGINNING TO DOUBT THAT HIS POLICY OF NON-VIOLENCE WOULD BRING KOSOVAR ALBANIANS WHAT THEY WANTED, WHICH WAS INDEPENDENCE. SECOND, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN -- THE RATHER STRANGE EPISODE THAT HAPPENED IN BELGRADE -- HOW COMPLICIT MR. RUGOVA WAS IN ANY OF THOSE STATEMENTS.

HOST: YOU MEAN WHEN HE APPEARED WITH [SLOBODAN] MILOSEVIC ON TELEVISION. VAN METRE: YES. I MEAN, WE WERE PRETTY SURE THAT IT WAS UNDER DURESS. NEVERTHELESS, IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EXACTLY WAS GOING ON IN BELGRADE. FOR MANY KOSOVO ALBANIANS, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW STRONGLY MR. RUGOVA FOUGHT THE SITUATION HE WAS IN. I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEM. IN ADDITION, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE MODERATE LEADERS OF THE KOSOVAR ALBANIAN PEOPLE, SUCH AS VETON SURROI, HAVE SURVIVED THIS CRISIS AND CAN COME ON TO LEAD THE ALBANIANS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE TREMENDOUS ATROCITIES THAT HAVE GONE ON. I IMAGINE THE POPULATION IS RATHER RADICALIZED RIGHT NOW.

HOST: AND WHAT, BY THE WAY, IS MEANT BY THE NATO OBLIGATION, ACCORDING TO THIS AGREEMENT, TO "DEMILITARIZE" THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY, AS OPPOSED TO "DISARM"? DOES ANYONE UNDERSTAND THAT DISTINCTION? KENNEY: WE REALLY DON'T KNOW. THAT PROVIDES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE NATO FORCES TO FUDGE. AND SO YOU HAVE THE GERMANS IGNORING THE K-L-A BRANDISHING WEAPONS, AND THEN POUNCING ON SERBS WHO BRANDISH WEAPONS. THE U.S. UNITS STARTING TO TAKE SMALL ARMS AWAY FROM SOME K-L-A UNITS. SO THERE SEEMS TO BE A HODGEPODGE OF INTERPRETATIONS. WHETHER WE GET TO A SINGLE VIEW OF THIS PROBABLY DEPENDS ON THE POLITICAL RELATIONS THAT EVOLVE BETWEEN K-L-A LEADERS AND THE NATO LEADERS. COHEN: I WOULD ADD THAT ONE WAY TO INTERPRET THAT IS THAT THE K-L-A WOULD NOT HAVE ANYTHING HEAVIER THAN SMALL ARMS, BUT THEY DID NOT HAVE MUCH BUT SMALL ARMS ANYWAY. KENNEY: THEY HAD SOME HIGH TECH STUFF, THOUGH, HIGH TECH SMALL ARMS. COHEN: IN DISTINCTION BETWEEN DEMILITARIZATION AND DISARMAMENT, YOU WOULD SAY DISARMAMENT IS ZERO ARMS, AS OPPOSED TO DEMILITARIZATION WHEN THEY ARE NOT IN MILITARY FORMATIONS. BUT THEN, OF COURSE, IF THEY ARE A PREDOMINANT FORCE, AND IF THEY ARE, ON TOP OF THAT, A GUERRILLA FORCE THAT MAY GO UNDERGROUND AGAIN, EVEN WITH NATO PRESENT IN KOSOVO.

HOST: FOR WHAT REASON? COHEN: FOR WHATEVER REASON OF THEIR NATIONAL ASPIRATION THAT THEY MAY HAVE. SO CONTROL OF A NATIONAL LIBERATION MOVEMENT BY AN EXTERNAL FORCE IS A VERY COMPLICATED ISSUE INDEED, AS WE'VE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM VIETNAM TO AFGHANISTAN.

HOST: WE ARE TALKING ABOUT OUTCOMES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEAR FUTURE BUT, OF COURSE, ALL OF THESE THINGS COULD BE FORSTALLED IF, INDEED, WHAT WE HAVE IS A U-N/NATO PROTECTORATE IN KOSOVO FOR AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE OF A CYPRUS-STYLE OPERATION, WHICH HAS BEEN IN OPERATION SINCE 1974. COHEN: BUT THEN AGAIN, THE PEACE AGREEMENT IS NOT FORESEEING A PROTECTORATE. THE WORD PROTECTORATE DOESN'T APPEAR THERE. WHAT IT DOES FORSEE ARE VERY SPECIFIC ISSUES, INCLUDING RETURN OF THE REFUGEES AND SOME KIND OF CONTINUATION OF YUGOSLAV SOVEREIGNTY. LET ME CAUTION THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BREAKUP OF YUGOSLAVIA AND THE SOVIET UNION, ANY MAJOR CHANGES OF BORDERS IN EUROPE SINCE THE END OF WORLD WAR TWO. AND TO START NOW IN KOSOVO, OR TO ADD KOSOVO TO THE BREAKUP OF YUGOSLAVIA, IS AGAIN A VERY SERIOUS AND CRITICAL STEP. WE REALLY HAVE TO THINK THROUGH VERY CAREFULLY WHAT ARE THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE REGION AT LARGE, FOR THE BALKANS AND FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE.

HOST: LET'S DO THAT. LET'S THINK THEM THROUGH. LAUREN, ARE YOU WILLING TO THINK THOSE THROUGH? VAN METRE: YES, I THINK AN ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION OF A PROTECTORATE IS WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN BEFORE NATO FORCES ARE WILLING TO STEP DOWN FROM KOSOVO. I DON'T THINK KOSOVO IS GOING TO BE SECURE AS LONG AS MR. MILOSEVIC STAYS IN POWER IN BELGRADE. AND THAT MAY BE ONE INDICATOR IN TERMS OF AN END STATE. SECOND I THINK WE ALSO HAVE TO SEE WHAT TYPE OF KOSOVAR ALBANIAN LEADERSHIP EMERGES OUT OF THIS CRISIS. I WOULD HESITATE TO SAY THIS, BUT I THINK AT THIS POINT THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S MOVE TOWARDS EARLY ELECTIONS IN KOSOVO MAY ACTUALLY BE DETRIMENTAL IN THE SENSE THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY GET THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP THAT WE MAY NOT WANT IN KOSOVO. SO I WOULD SAY THAT'S ALSO AN INDICATOR OF HOW SOON WE'LL BE LEAVING. KENNEY: I WOULD TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENT VIEW. I THINK THAT WE'VE MOVED FROM THE STAGE OF HAVING THE BALKAN CRISIS BE ABOUT A SERBIAN PROBLEM TO IT BEGINNING TO BE ABOUT AN ALBANIAN PROBLEM. HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH THIS ASPIRATION FOR A LARGER ALBANIA, NOT JUST IN KOSOVO, BUT IN ALBANIA AND IN WESTERN MACEDONIA? I THINK AT SOME POINT WE HAVE TO REDRAW BORDERS. BUT HOW DO WE DO THAT? DO WE DO THAT AFTER THE FACT, OR DO WE DO IT WITH SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE PARTIES REGIONALLY? I THINK THE LATTER IS THE BETTER COURSE. BUT IF WE SAY THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE NO CHANGES IN BORDERS AND THAT KOSOVO CAN'T BE INDEPENDENT AND CAN'T GO ON TO MERGE WITH ITS ALBANIAN NEIGHBORS, IT WILL BOTTLE UP THE CRISIS. AND PROBABLY IT WILL EXPLODE AGAIN THE SAME WAY THAT BOSNIA EXPLODED, OR THAT YUGOSLAVIA BEGAN TO BREAK UP IN THE FIRST PLACE.

HOST: ARIEL COHEN, SOME PEOPLE SPECULATE THAT THE PRESENCE OF RUSSIAN TROOPS IN KOSOVO AND THEIR UNANNOUNCED ARRIVAL, AND THE RATHER PECULIAR WAY IN WHICH THEY CAME THERE, MAY BE A PLAY FOR WHAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A PARTITION OF KOSOVO, WITH THE RUSSIANS PROTECTING THE SERBS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THAT PART OF YUGOSLAVIA. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT THESIS? COHEN: I THINK THE CURRENT TROOP STRENGTH IS INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH AN OUTCOME.

HOST: THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT BRINGING THOUSANDS OF RUSSIAN TROOPS. COHEN: RIGHT. IF YOU REALLY WANTED TO PREVENT SUCH AN OUTCOME, YOU WOULD NOT PUT THE RUSSIAN SECTOR IN THE NORTH. KENNEY: I AGREE. PUT IT ON THE BORDER WITH ALBANIA. COHEN: OR MACEDONIA, WHATEVER. BUT YOU HAVE ANOTHER PROBLEM, AND THAT IS THAT THE ALBANIANS DON'T WANT TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR THE RUSSIAN SOLDIERS. SO THAT'S A PREDICAMENT. AND FINALLY, IF THE SERBS GET THE MONASTERIES AND WHATEVER TERRITORY OF KOSOVO THAT IS HISTORICALLY SERB WITH A CURRENT SERB POPULATION, THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY A VERY NEGATIVE OUTCOME FOR MILOSEVIC AND FOR SERBIA.

HOST: HOW ABOUT FOR RUSSIA? WHAT ARE RUSSIA'S INTERESTS IN THIS? COHEN: I AM NOT SURE RUSSIA KNOWS WHAT ITS INTERESTS ARE. ON ONE HAND, RUSSIA IS PLAYING A GREAT POWER CARD. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO DO THAT WHEN YOUR G-D-P IS THE SIZE OF BELGIUM. ON THE OTHER HAND, RUSSIA DESPERATELY NEEDS ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE FROM THE WEST AND IT NEEDS TO PLAY NICE TO WASHINGTON. SO IT IS A DILEMMA IN MOSCOW. AND ON TOP OF THAT THE MILITARY, WHICH IS SMARTING FROM ITS DEFEATS IN CHECHNYA, ITS DETERIORATING CONDITION, ITS VERY LOW BUDGETS, WANTS TO SHOW TO BORIS YELTSIN THAT THEY ARE THE POWER WITHIN RUSSIA AND WITHIN RUSSIAN POLITICS TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. KENNEY: DO YOU THINK THE RUSSIANS ARE GENUINELY CONCERNED THAT NATO MIGHT TRY TO UNDERTAKE SOME MORE ACTIVITIES, AND CLOSER TO RUSSIA'S NEIGHBORHOOD? COHEN: THREE MONTHS AGO I WOULD HAVE SAID THAT'S LUDICROUS, BECAUSE NATO SPENT YEARS CONVINCING THE RUSSIANS THAT IT'S A PURELY DEFENSIVE ALLIANCE. AND ALL RUSSIAN OBJECTIONS TO NATO ENLARGEMENT ARE RIDICULOUS. HOWEVER, AFTER THE BALKAN ACTION, I WILL BE VERY CAREFUL WHAT TO ADVISE MY RUSSIAN FRIENDS, OR FOR THAT MATTER, WHAT TO ADVISE NATO HEADQUARTERS IN TERMS OF THEIR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE RUSSIANS, BECAUSE NOW, FRANKLY, NATO CREDIBILITY WITH THE RUSSIANS IS SHOT. NOBODY BELIEVES THEM ANYMORE.

HOST: I WANT TO GET ON TO ONE POINT THAT LAUREN VAN METRE RAISED. THAT IS THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. THERE HAVE BEEN REPEATED STATEMENTS BY THE UNITED STATES THAT THERE WILL BE NO AID TO YUGOSLAVIA SO LONG AS HE REMAINS HEAD OF STATE, WHEREAS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF AID IN REBUILDING KOSOVO. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS HERE FOR HIS REMAINING IN OFFICE? THE HEAD OF THE ORTHODOX CHURCH IN YUGOSLAVIA HAS CALLED FOR HIS RESIGNATION. I BELIEVE THAT IT IS WITHIN SIX MONTHS OR SO THEY HAVE TO HAVE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN YUGOSLAVIA, OR YOU COULD CORRECT ME THERE. VAN METRE: NEXT YEAR.

HOST: NEXT YEAR. CAN HE BE REMOVED PEACEFULLY? IS THERE ANY PROSPECT OF HIS RESIGNING? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF HIS STAYING THERE AS AN INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL? KENNEY: I THINK IT IS A TERRIBLE MISTAKE FOR WASHINGTON TO IMPOSE FURTHER SANCTIONS AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON YUGOSLAVIA. WE ARE GUARANTEEING THAT MILOSEVIC HAS THE MAXIMUM CHANCE FOR STAYING AT POWER. IF YOU LOOK AT SANCTIONS AROUND THE WORLD, AT EVERY SINGLE CASE FROM CASTRO TO GADHAFI TO, YOU NAME IT. . . COHEN: SADDAM HUSSEIN. KENNEY: SANCTIONS HELP DICTATORS TO STAY AT POWER. NOW ON THE OTHER HAND, HE HAS BEEN INDICTED BY THE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL IN THE HAGUE AND THERE IS DISSENT. BUT UNFORTUNATELY ONE OF THE GREAT TRAGEDIES OF YUGOSLAVIA IS THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS NEVER AMOUNTED TO VERY MUCH SINCE TITO'S DEATH.

HOST: IN 1996-97, THERE WERE HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN THE STREETS PROTESTING. KENNEY: AND THEN THE LEADERS ALL WENT AT EACH OTHER THROATS. IT WAS PATHETIC. THERE IS NOBODY NOW, AT THE MODERATE SIDE, WHO IS REALLY A CHALLENGE TO MILOSEVIC. INSTEAD OF CUTTING OFF YUGOSLAVIA, WE SHOULD TRY TO EMBRACE THEM AND BUILD UP A MIDDLE CLASS, AND BUILD UP SOME ALTERNATIVES. COHEN: BUILDING UP A MIDDLE CLASS IN YUGOSLAVIA IS LIKE BUILDING A MIDDLE CLASS IN RUSSIA. IT CAN TAKE TEN YEARS, TWENTY YEARS, THIRTY YEARS. IN THE MEANTIME, IF THERE ARE ELECTIONS, IF MILOSEVIC IS NOT RUNNING FOR WHATEVER REASON -- THE CHURCH IS AGAINST HIM --THE QUESTION IS: WOULDN'T YUGOSLAVIA GO FURTHER IN THE NATIONALIST DIRECTION? I AM NOT SURE THAT THE CHURCH'S OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC IS NOT BECAUSE MILOSEVIC DIDN'T STAND UP AND FIGHT, OR BECAUSE THE MONASTERIES NOW MAY BE UNDER NATO CONTROL. I AM NOT SURE WHAT IS THE MOTIVATION OF THE PATRIARCH IN BELGRADE FOR THAT.

HOST: LAUREN VAN METRE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ARE, MILOSEVIC REMAINING THERE? AND WHAT SHOULD BE THE U.S. POLICY IN RESPONSE? VAN METRE: I AGREE THAT WE SHOULD BE ENGAGING, NOT NECESSARILY MR. MILOSEVIC, BUT THE SERBIAN PEOPLE. I THINK IT'S A MISTAKE.

HOST: HOW DO YOU DO THAT? VAN METRE: THERE'S NUMBER OF WAYS YOU CAN DO IT. WE'VE ACTUALLY BEEN VERY GOOD. EASTERN EUROPE IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF ENGAGING GRASSROOTS MOVEMENTS AND CULTIVATING YOUNG DEMOCRATIC LEADERS. YES, THE PAYOFF MAY BE TEN YEARS FROM NOW, BUT IT WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO START. I THINK WE HAVE A VERY HOPEFUL SIGN IN MONTENEGRO WITH THE [MILO] DJUKANOVIC GOVERNMENT THERE THAT PERHAPS, IF USED CORRECTLY, CAN BE USED AS LEVERAGE ON THE GOVERNMENT AND THE FRY [FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA]. THESE PEOPLE NEED TO BE SUPPORTED. AND LASTLY, I'LL SAY WE HAD A CONFERENCE RECENTLY WITH BALKAN LEADERS FROM THE REGION. AND THEIR READ ON ALL THIS IS: DON'T ISOLATE SERBIA. THEY NEED SERBIA FOR THEIR OWN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REJUVENATION, AND IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO DO SO [TO ISOLATE IT]. COHEN: WHAT I'M BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT IS THAT WE WILL TURN THIS INTO THE WEST VERSUS ORTHODOXY. I REALIZE THAT, FOR EXAMPLE, BULGARIANS AND, TO CERTAIN EXTENT, THE GREEK ELITE WERE WITH NATO. THE GREEK POPULATION WAS, OF COURSE, AGAINST. BUT THIS IDEA OF CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS -- EVEN IF IT'S NOT HAPPENING -- YOU HAVE TO KEEP IT IN MIND AND PREVENT UKRAINIANS, RUSSIANS, BELORUSSIANS, ETC., FROM DESIGNING IN THEIR MINDS SOME GREAT COALITION OF SLAVIC ORTHODOXY, WHICH NEVER EXISTED IN TRUTH. BUT THAT SHOULDN'T APPEAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY. WE DON'T WANT THAT TO HAPPEN.

HOST: GEORGE KENNEY, A CLOSING THOUGHT FROM YOU. KENNEY: WELL, WE'VE MADE SO MANY MISTAKES IN KOSOVO AND IN BOSNIA, I'M AFRAID THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MAKE MISTAKES. AND WE MAY PROVIDE INCENTIVES FOR PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF KOSOVO AND ALBANIA AND MACEDONIA TO LEVERAGE THOSE MISTAKES INTO FURTHER INTERVENTIONS. I WOULD HOPE WE CAN PULL OUT OF THIS AND ACHIEVE SOMETHING THAT'S SELF-SUSTAINING AND STABLE ON ITS OWN, BUT I DOUBT IT.

HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- LAUREN VAN METRE FROM THE U.S. PEACE INSTITUTE; WRITER AND CONSULTANT GEORGE KENNEY; AND ARIEL COHEN FROM THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION -- FOR JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE IN KOSOVO. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
18-Jun-99 10:57 AM EDT (1457 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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