Voice of America, 16 May 1996

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] BOSNIA/SERBS (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (BANJA LUKA)

[03] BOSNIA / GERMANY (S ONLY) BY KYLE KING (BONN)

[04] CROATIA'S OPPOSITION BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

[05] CROATIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER (L-ONLY) BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

[06] TURKEY/JORDAN (L ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[07] U-S-BOSNIAN SERBS (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[08] YUGO BANK BY BARRY WOOD (PRAGUE)

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT WEDNESDAY THAT KANSAS SENATOR BOB DOLE IS RETIRING FROM THE SENATE, AND HIS ROLE AS MAJORITY LEADER, TO BECOME A FULL-TIME PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, IS THE LEAD EDITORIAL TOPIC IN THE MAJOR U-S NEWSPAPERS. OTHER SUBJECTS INCLUDE THE LOOMING U-S TRADE WAR WITH CHINA; NORTH KOREA'S FAMINE; THE BOSNIAN ELECTION AND THE F-A-A PROBE OF THE VALUJET AIRLINE CRASH IN FLORIDA. NOW, HERE WITH A FEW QUOTES IS ____________________AND TODAY'S U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: MANY OF THE NATION'S MOST-READ NEWSPAPERS ARE LEADING THEIR EDITORIAL COLUMNS WITH COMMENTS ON MR. DOLE'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WILL LEAVE THE SENATE TO CAMPAIGN FULL TIME FOR THE PRESIDENCY. IN NEW ENGLAND, THE BOSTON GLOBE CALLS IT "DOLE'S RETREAT", AND WORRIES ABOUT THE CHANGING COMPOSITION OF THE UPPER LEGISLATIVE CHAMBER.

VOICE: "... [BOB DOLE'S] DEPARTURE FROM THE SENATE REMOVES THE MOST POWERFUL VOICE OF RELATIVE MODERATION FROM THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY. ADDED TO THE RETIREMENTS OF TOO MANY OTHER MODERATES, [MR.] DOLE'S LEAVING WILL LIKELY MAKE THE SENATE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND MORE CONFRONTATIONAL, BOTH THIS YEAR AND IN THE FUTURE... [SENATOR] DOLE'S PLACE IN CONGRESSIONAL HISTORY IS SECURE... THAT HE HAD TO STEP AWAY FROM THAT HISTORY TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IS A LOSS TO CONGRESS AND THE NATION."

TEXT: IN THE SOUTH, THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION, LOOKS BACK ON SENATOR DOLE'S RECORD, NOTING:

VOICE: THOUGH HE HAS BEEN DERIDED DURING THIS ELECTION SEASON ... AS A MERE LEGISLATIVE MECHANIC, [MR.] DOLE'S ROLE IN KEEPING THE SENATE ON TRACK SHOULD NOT BE SOLD SHORT [UNDERRATED]. THE MAJORITY LEADER MUST ARRANGE COMPROMISES, CAJOLE, WHEEDLE, AND HORSE-TRADE. THESE ARE STILLS ESSENTIAL TO THE SMOOTH FUNCTIONING OF THE REPUBLIC... GIVE HIM CREDIT FOR MAKING THIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN LIVELIER AND, NO DOUBT, MORE COMPETITIVE. THE MAN HAS GRIT [COURAGE]."

TEXT: IN FLORIDA, THE MIAMI HERALD SAYS BOB DOLE'S DECISION TO LEAVE THE SENATE MAY HELP - IN ITS WORDS - JUMP-START HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.

VOICE: "BEING FREE TO CAMPAIGN IS NO SMALL MATTER. THREE TIMES IN THE PAST 20 YEARS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES OF ONE PARTY HAVE UNSEATED PRESIDENTS OF THE OTHER: IN 1976 JIMMY CARTER OUSTED GERALD FORD; IN 1980 RONALD REAGAN BEAT MR. CARTER, AND IN 1992 MR. CLINTON BEAT GEORGE BUSH... NOW THIS WORLD WAR TWO MILITARY HERO CAN DEVOTE HIMSELF WHOLEHEARTEDLY TO PURSUING WHAT MANY OF HIS ADMIRERS PERCEIVED AS HIS LAST REAL CHANCE TO LEAD THE COUNTRY ... HE LOVES."

TEXT: THE NEW YORK TIMES CALLS THE MOVE A RISKY STRATEGY, IN PART BECAUSE:

VOICE: "MR. DOLE'S STRATEGIC REVERSAL CARRIES RISKS BEYOND THE NORMAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTS OF DESPERATION... AS A FULL-TIME CANDIDATE, HE WILL BE NAKEDLY AND CONTINUOUSLY EXPOSED TO ALL THOSE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHO IS HE AND WHAT HE STANDS FOR -- THOSE PESKY VISION QUESTIONS -- THAT HE WAS CLEARLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH EVEN IN THE LESS DEMANDING REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES. ONLY NOW HE WILL NOT HAVE THE SENATE AS A HIDEY-HOLE [REFUGE]."

TEXT: THE WASHINGTON POST CALLS THE DOLE RESIGNATION A "GOOD MOVE," WHILE IN CALIFORNIA, THERE IS THIS READING [ANALYSIS] FROM THE LOS ANGELES TIMES:

VOICE: "THE RESIGNATION WAS A POTENT REMINDER THAT PRESIDENTIAL RACES HAVE A WAY OF PRODUCING SURPRISES. [OPT] EVEN THE MOST TRADITIONAL AND PREDICTABLE WASHINGTON POLITICIANS CAN HAVE A FEW GOOD MOVES LEFT -- AND THAT'S WHAT [MR.] DOLE DEMONSTRATED. IT'S THE STUFF THAT MAKES POLITICS FUN, THE FIRST ACTION [SENATOR] DOLE THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HAS TAKEN THAT REALLY SHOOK THE TREES [GOT EVERYBODY'S ATTENTION] IN WASHINGTON. NOW, WILL IT SHAKE THE TREES OUTSIDE THE BELTWAY? [END OPT] ... AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAMPAIGN, THE HARD WAY IS THE ONLY WAY FOR [MR.] DOLE; THE EASY WAY HASN'T BEEN WORKING. NOTHING LIKE A LITTLE DRAMA AND PATHOS TO ENLIVEN A PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN SORE NEED OF GIVING VOTERS A REASON TO CARE."

TEXT: IN OTHER NEWS, THE LOOMING U-S TRADE DISPUTE WITH CHINA GETS A GOOD DEAL OF EDITORAL ATTENTION, CAUSING THE WASHINGTON POST TO REMARK:

VOICE: "THE CHINESE ARE FURIOUS AT THE UNITED STATES FOR IMPOSING PUNITIVE TARIFFS ON SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARGETED IMPORTS FROM CHINA AND PROMISE TO RETALIATE. BUT CHINA'S WELL-DOCUMENTED INDIFFERENCE TO ITS OWN YEAR-OLD PLEDGE OF A CRACKDOWN ON KNOCKOFFS OF AMERICAN MOVIES, RECORDS AND COMPUTER PROGRAMS LEFT PRESIDENT CLINTON NO OTHER CHOICE. [OPT] ... THE RESULTS COULD HURT BOTH SIDES. BUT IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT IN SOME PAST CASES THE CHINESE DID NOT BEGIN REAL BARGAINING UNTIL SANCTIONS HAD BEEN SET." [E ND OP T]

TEXT: ON NEW YORK'S LONG ISLAND, NEWSDAY'S EDITORIAL HEADLINE SAYS: "TRADE WAR IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR SOUND CHINA POLICY."

VOICE: "PRESIDENT ... CLINTON HAD LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO HANG TOUGH [HOLD HIS GROUND] ON THE ISSUE, SINCE THE CHINESE ARE VIOLATING A TRADE PACT ... ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY... BUT IN THE FUTURE, [MR.] CLINTON MUST DEVELOP ROUTINE CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION WITH BEIJING. RELYING ON BRINKSMANSHIP IS A POOR SUBSTITUTE FOR A CONSISTENT FOREIGN-POLICY STRATEGY."

TEXT: IN NEW ENGLAND, THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR CAUTIONS, "BARGAIN HARD -- BUT NO NEW COLD WAR," ADDING:

VOICE: "THAT [STRATEGY] SHOULD BE THE CRIB NOTES U-S NEGOTIATORS HAVE STENCILED ON THEIR [SHIRT] CUFFS WHEN THEY DEAL WITH CHINA OR RUSSIA. TODAY THE EXERCISE IS CHINA TRADE. THAT INCLUDES BOTH AMERICA'S TIT-FOR-TAT STRUGGLE WITH BEINING OVER PIRATING OF CDS, VIDEOS AND SOFTWARE; AND THE BROADER DECISION ON RENEWING MOST-FAVORED-NATION TRADE ACCESS TO U-S MARKETS."

TEXT: IN CENTRAL FLORIDA, THE ORLANDO SENTINEL" SEES A MEASURE OF REASON IN THE U-S SANCTIONS DECISION, TELLING ITS READERS:

VOICE: "... THE TRADE TIFF IS JUST A SMALL PART OF GENERALLY CONSTRUCTIVE ECONOMIC TIES... AS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION THREATENS TO SLAP [PLACE] MEASURED SANCTIONS ON CHINA FOR CERTAIN TRADE VIOLATIONS, IT ALSO IS MOVING TO APPROVE CHINA'S MOST-FAVORED-NATION TRADE STATUS WITH THE UNITED STATES... ACTUALLY, BOTH ACTIONS ... MAKE SENSE."

TEXT: TODAY'S LOS ANGELES TIMES NOTES THAT NORTH KOREA'S WORSENING FOOD SITUATION, WITH SOME PEOPLE REPORTED LIVING ON LEAVES, GRASS AND ROOTS, DUE IN PART TO A FAILED RICE CROP. THE PAPER SUGGEST THE CRISIS COULD LEAD TO A FORMAL END TO THE KOREAN WAR IN JOINT TALKS BETWEEN CHINA, BOTH KOREAS, AND THE UNITED STATES.

VOICE: "PRESSURE TO DO SOMETHING MUST BE BUILDING IN NORTH KOREA. SOUTH KOREA ESTIMATES THAT AS A RESULT OF PYONGYANG'S FAILED AGRICULTURAL POLICIES AND LAST YEAR'S DISASTROUS FLOODS, THE NORTH WILL BE SHORT ABOUT TWO MILLION TONS OF GRAINS THIS YEAR... NORTH KOREA HAS NO MONEY OR CREDIT TO IMPORT FOOD OR OIL... HERE IS A RARE CHANCE TO INDUCE NORTH KOREA TO MODERATE ITS INFLEXIBLE AND SELF-WOUNDING POLICIES."

TEXT: FOCUSING ON THE TRUCE IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, TODAY'S WASHINGTON TIMES TALKS ABOUT THE LONG, SLOW PROCESS OF RESTORING DEMOCRACY THERE.

VOICE: THE ROAD TO DEMOCRACY AND THE RECONSTRUCTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA LOOKS TO BE A LONG AND ROCKY [DIFFICULT] ONE. THE ESSENTIAL QUESTION IS WHETHER ENOUGH CAN BE ACHIEVED BEFORE THE NATO IMPLEMENTATION FORCE ... BEGINS TO WITHDRAW, A DATE SET BY THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALLY FOR DECEMBER ... ELECTION SEASON IN BOSNIA WILL BE AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF THE FUTURE. RIGHT NOW, IT IS NOT ONE WHICH LOOKS VERY HOPEFUL."

TEXT: AND LASTLY, ON THE INVESTIGATION INTO THE VALUJETLINER CRASH IN THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES SATURDAY, THE MIAMI HERALD SAYS:

VOICE: "... AS SO MANY TOIL TO RECOVER PIECES OF BODIES AND THE DC-9 FROM THE RESISTANT SWAMP, MORE SPECULATIONS ABOUT THE CRASH'S CAUSE WILL ERUPT WITH EACH NEW-FOUND PUZZLE PIECE. THERE SHOULD BE NO RUSH TO ASSUME OR TO ACCUSE... YET WHILE THE SPECIFIC FACTORS [OF THE CRASH] WON'T BE DETERMINED WITH COMPLETE CERTAINTY SOON, THE OVERALL CONCERNS FOR AIR TRAVEL SAFETY THAT HAVE ARISEN ... SURELY CAN BE ADDRESSED WITH APPROPRIATE SWIFTNESS AND THOROUGHNESS."

TEXT: WITH THAT, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIALS COMMENT FROM SOME OF TODAY'S U-S PRESS.
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16-May-96 10:50 AM EDT (1450 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] BOSNIA/SERBS (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (BANJA LUKA)

INTRO: THE BOSNIAN SERB PRIME MINISTER INSISTS HE WILL REMAIN IN HIS JOB UNTIL A REPLACEMENT IS APPROVED BY THE BOSNIAN SERB PARLIAMENT. RAJKO KASAGIC, WHO WAS FIRED ON WEDNESDAY BY BOSNIAN SERB PRESIDENT RADOVAN KARADZIC, SAYS THERE IS NOW A CLEAR SPLIT IN THE BOSNIAN SERB LEADERSHIP, AND INTERNATIONAL OFFICIALS SAY IF THE PRIME MINISTER IS REPLACED, IT COULD LEAD TO A RESUMPTION OF THE WAR IN BOSNIA. DAVID FOLEY REPORTS FROM BANJA LUKA IN NORTHERN BOSNIA.

TEXT: WEDNESDAY'S DISMISSAL OF PRIME MINISTER RAJKO KASAGIC BY BOSNIAN SERB PRESIDENT RADOVAN KARADZIC HAS SENT SHOCK WAVES ACROSS BOSNIA. THE PRIME MINISTER SAYS IF MR. KARADZIC CONTINUES WITH HIS POLICY OF ISOLATION, REPUBLIKA SRPSKA COULD BE DESTROYED. (MR. KASAGIC) SAYS HE WILL REMAIN IN OFFICE.

IT'S CLEAR THE BATTLE FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF THE BOSNIAN SERBS IS NOW UNDERWAY. MR. KASAGIC SAYS HE BELIEVES HE HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ARMY AND THE POLICE IN NORTHWESTERN BOSNIA, AND HE ACCUSES MR. KARADZIC OF IGNORING THE SERBS IN BANJA LUKA -- THE LARGEST CITY IN THE SERB ENTITY IN BOSNIA.

MR. KASAGIC HAS BEEN VISITED BY A STREAM OF SUPPORTERS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JAVIER SOLANA, ALONG WITH THE OVERALL COMMANDER OF NATO FORCES IN EUROPE, GENERAL GEORGE JOULWAN, HELD TALKS WITH MR. KASAGIC IN HIS OFFICE IN BANJA LUKA. AFTER THE MEETING, MR. SOLANA INSISTED MR. KASAGIC WAS STILL THE PRIME MINISTER.

I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY OF LETTING HIM KNOW THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE CO-OPERATING WITH HIM IN THE DIRECTION OF IMPLEMENTING THE DAYTON AGREEMENT.

THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIATOR IN BOSNIA, CARL BILDT, ALSO CAME TO BANJA LUKA TO SHOW HIS SUPPORT FOR MR. KASAGIC, AND HE ATTACKED MR. KARADZIC'S POLICY OF ISOLATION AND OBSTRUCTION OF THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT.

THERE IS NO WAY WE ARE GOING TO WORK WITH MR. KARADZIC, NOR RECOGNIZE WHAT HE IS DOING, SINCE IF YOU SEE THE STATEMENTS ... IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, CLEARLY HE IS SAYING HE DOES NOT WANT TO SEE POLITICIANS IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA THAT ARE PREPARED TO FULLY IMPLEMENT THE PEACE AGREEMENT. HE'S BEEN CRYSTAL CLEAR ON THAT.

MR. BILDT SAYS HE BELIEVES MR. KASAGIC HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN BOSNIAN SERB TERRITORY, AND HE SAYS THE PEOPLE HAVE A CLEAR CHOICE FOR THE FUTURE.

IT IS AN ACUTE POLITICAL BATTLE OVER THE FUTURE OF REPUBLIKA SRPSKA. BECAUSE (IT'S EITHER) PEACE OR WAR. AND I WOULD VERY MUCH HOPE THAT THE FORCES FOR PEACE AND PROSPERITY WOULD COME OUT AGAINST THE FORCES FOR ISOLATION, SEPARATISM, AND EVENTUALLY I FEAR WAR OR CONFLICT.

WITH POLITICAL BATTLE LINES DRAWN, IT WILL NOW BE UP TO MR. KARADZIC TO APPOINT A SUCCESSOR TO MR. KASAGIC AND TRY TO HAVE THAT CHOICE APPROVED BY THE BOSNIAN SERB PARLIAMENT. EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, THERE IS A REAL RISK THE SERBS COULD BECOME DIVIDED, WITH RIVAL LEADERSHIPS IN EASTERN AND WESTERN BOSNIA. (SIGNED)
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16-May-96 1:53 PM EDT (1753 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] BOSNIA / GERMANY (S ONLY) BY KYLE KING (BONN)

INTRO: GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER KLAUS KINKEL IS IN BELGRADE WHERE HE IS EXPECTED TO PRESS SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC FOR HELP IN BRINGING ACCUSED BOSNIAN SERB WAR CRIMINALS TO JUSTICE. AS V-O-A'S KYLE KING REPORTS FROM BONN, MR. KINKEL IS EXPECTED TO CALL ON THE SERBIAN PRESIDENT TO HONOR HIS PLEDGE TO DELIVER BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN KARADZIC TO THE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL IN THE HAGUE.

TEXT: MR. KINKEL TOLD REPORTERS AS HE ARRIVED IN BELGRADE THAT HE EXPECTED HIS ONE DAY VISIT TO BE SUCCESSFUL.

THE FOREIGN MINISTER, WHO IS THE HIGHEST RANKING GERMAN OFFICIAL TO VISIT YUGOSLAVIA SINCE 1991, SAID HE PLANNED TO DISCUSS WAYS TO IMPLEMENT THE TERMS OF THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT.

THE AGREEMENT CALLS ON MR. MILOSEVIC TO COOPERATE WITH THE INTERNATIONAL WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL IN THE HAGUE, WHICH HAS INDICTED BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN KARADZIC AND HIS MILITARY CHIEF RATKO MLADIC.

BEFORE HE BEGAN HIS TRIP, MR. KINKEL SAID THE RECENT ATTEMPT BY MR. KARADZIC TO OUST HIS MODERATE PRIME MINISTER WAS PROOF THAT IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO BRING PEACE TO BOSNIA AS LONG AS MR. KARADZIC WAS STILL IN POWER.

IN ADDITION TO THE FATE OF THE INDICTED BOSNIAN SERB LEADER, MR. KINKEL ALSO IS EXPECTED TO DISCUSS THE SAFE RETURN OF REFUGEES AND THE STATUS OF GERMAN RELATIONS WITH YUGOSLAVIA, WHICH WERE RE-ESTABLISHED JUST LAST MONTH. (SIGNED)
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16-May-96 7:54 AM EDT (1154 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] CROATIA'S OPPOSITION BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE ANNOUNCED EARLIER THIS WEEK (5/14) THAT IT HAS POSTPONED MEMBERSHIP IN THE ORGANIZATION FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA BECAUSE IT FINDS DEMOCRATIC REFORMS THERE INADEQUATE. A SPOKESMAN FOR THE 39-NATION BODY SAID THE DECISION WAS TAKEN IN PART BECAUSE OF

TEXT: ALTHOUGH CROATIA'S OPPOSITION IS FIGHTING MOSTLY UPHILL BATTLES THESE DAYS, ONE RECENT EVENT HAS GONE IN ITS FAVOR. ON MAY 10TH, THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OVERTURNED A DECISION BY PRESIDENT TUDJMAN TO DISSOLVE THE DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED ZAGREB CITY COUNCIL. IT WAS SEEN AS AN UNPRECEDENTED DISPLAY OF INDEPENDENCE BY THE COURT.

LAST OCTOBER, AN OPPOSITION COALITION WON A MAJORITY ON THE ZAGERB CITY COUNCIL, WHICH APPOINTS THE CITY'S MAYOR. PRESIDENT TUDJMAN QUICKLY VETOED ALL OF THE CANDIDATES PROPOSED BY THE OPPOSITION AND APPOINTED HIS OWN CANDIDATE AS ACTING MAYOR UNTIL NEW CITY ELECTIONS ARE HELD. PRESIDENT TUDJMAN WAS QUOTED AS SAYING HE WOULD NOT ALLOW THE CAPITAL TO BE RUN BY - WHAT HE CALLED - "ENEMIES OF THE STATE." VLADO GOTOVAC [GO-TOH-VATZ], THE HEAD OF CROATIA'S STRONGERST OPPOSITION PARTY, THE SOCIAL LIBERAL PARTY (HSLS), SAID HE IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THAT KIND OF TALK COMING FROM THE HEAD OF A COUNTRY CLAIMING BE A DEMOCRACY:

TAPE: CUT # 1 GOTOVAC/INTERPRETER RUNS [:] "(SERBO-CROATIAN) WE HAVE BELIEVED FOR A VERY LONG TIME THAT THE END OF THE WAR WILL BRING BACK A DEMOCRATIC ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, PRESIDENT TUDJMAN, TOGETHER WITH HIS PARTY, HAS BECOME MORE RIGID. LATELY HE HAS EVEN TALKED ABOUT THE OPPOSITION AS THE ENEMY OF THE STATE, IN THE OLD COMMUNIST MANNER. HE SPOKE ABOUT THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ENEMY, WHICH WAS TYPICAL FOR TITO'S DEFINITION OF OPPOSITION. IT THEREFORE EEMS THAT THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF CROATIA WILL BE MUCH HARDER THAN WE EVER THOUGHT IT WOULD BE."

TEXT: MR. GOTOVAC BELIEVES THAT THE AUTHORITY INVESTED IN PRESIDENT TUDJMAN WAS NECESSARY DURING A TIME OF WAR BUT THAT HE, LIKE MANY FORMER COMMUNIST LEADERS, IS NOW THREATENED BY POST-WAR DEMOCRATIZATION:

TAPE: CUT # 2 GOTOVAC /INTERPRETER RUNS [:] "(SERBO-CROATIAN) ALL COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH DEMOCRACY, EVEN WHEN THEY DON'T HAVE AUTHORITATIVE PERSONS AS HEAD OF STATE, LIKE (MR.) TUDJMAN IS. IT IS VERY CHARACTERISTIC FOR THOSE COUNTRIES THAT THEIR LEADERS VERY QUICKLY CAME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT ESPECIALLY THE NEW SOCIETY AND THE NEW STATE CANNOT KEEP GOING WITHOUT THEM."

TEXT: IN FACT, PRESIDENT TUDJMAN'S AUTHORITARIAN ACTIONS HAVE ALIENATED EVEN THOSE WHO WERE ONCE HIS MOST ARDENT SUPPORTERS, INCLUDING BORIS MARUNA OF 'MATICA HVRATSKA', THE LEADING ORGANIZATION DEDICATED TO PRESERVING CROATIAN CULTURE. MR. MARUNA EMIGRATED TO THE UNITED STATES TO ESCAPE COMMUNISM BUT RETURNED HOME TO SUPPORT MR. TUDJMAN WHEN CROATIA DECLARED ITS INDEPENDENCE IN 1991.

TAPE: CUT # 3 MARUNA RUNS "SINCE THE STATE WAS ESTABLISHED, THE POLITICAL QUESTION NOW IS NOT THE STATE BUT WHAT KIND OF STATE. I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A WESTERN-TYPE DEMOCRACY IN WHICH YOU CAN SAY WHATEVER YOU WANT, O-K? OR YOU CAN DO WHATEVER YOU WANT AS LONG AS IT IS INSIDE THE LAW AND DOESN'T INTERFERE WITH THE RIGHTS OF OTHERS."

TEXT: BUT MEASURES TAKEN RECENTLY BY PRESIDENT TUDJMAN HAVE ALARMED OPPOSITION LEADERS. IN RECENT WEEKS THE GOVERNMENT HAS CLAMPED DOWN ON SEVERAL INDEPENDENT MEDIA. IN APRIL THE DAILY NOVI LIST WAS FINED FOR ALLEGED UNLAWFUL USE OF EQUIPMENT IMPORTED FROM ITALY. AND THE INFLUENTIAL SATIRICAL WEEKLY, FERAL TRIBUNE, ONE OF THE FEW WITH A MASS CIRCULATION, WAS THREATENED WITH A SO-CALLED 'PORNOGRAPHY TAX'. A NEW PRESS LAW THREATENS PUNITIVE ACTION AGAINST JOURNALISTS WHO CRITICIZE TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS OR WHO INVESTIGATE ABUSE OF POWER AND CORRUPTION. FERAL TRIBUNE EDITOR, VIKTOR IVANCIC [EEVAHN-CHICH] HAS BEEN INDICTED UNDER THIS LAW FOR 'DEFAMING' PRESIDENT TUDJMAN.

THE DEPUTY MAYOR OF OSIJEK IN CROATIA'S TURBULENT SLAVONIA REGION IS ALSO A MEMBER OF THE OPPOSITION SOCIAL LIBERAL PARTY. [OPT] ZLATKO BENASIC [ZLAT-KOH BEN-AH-SITCH] BELIEVES THAT COMMUNICATION OF ALL KIND IS THE MOST PRESSING ISSUE IN CROATIA, NEXT TO ECONOMIC REFORM:

TAPE: CUT # 4 BENASIC/INTERPRETER RUNS [:] "(SERBO-CROATIAN) ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TASKS WOULD BE THE OPENING OF COMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, ROAD COMMUNICATIONS, RAILWAY COMMUNICATIONS. BUT WE MIGHT INCREASE THE COMMUNICATIONS AMONGST PEOPLE. IT IS A BASIC PRECONDITION FOR A BETTER TOMORROW, A BETTER FUTURE. I THINK THE MEDIA IS NOT FREE AND IS UNDER SELF-CENSORSHIP. WE DO NOT CONSIDER IT A GOOD DEMOCRATIC WAY."

TEXT: [OPT] THESE OPPOSITION LEADERS ALSO VIEW WITH ALARM THE RISING INFLUENCE OF CROATIAN DEFENSE MINISTER GOJKO SUSAK [GOI-KOH SHOO-SHAHK], A NATIONALIST FROM HERZEGOVINA, WHO THEY SEE AS INSTRUMENTAL IN MR. TUDJMAN'S REELECTION. THEY WERE OFFENDED AT THE WARM RECEPTION MR. SUSAK RECEIVED WHEN HE VISITED THE UNITED STATES IN MARCH. [END OPT] VLADO GOTOVAC SAYS THE UNITED STATES TOO OFTEN LOOKS THE OTHER WAY WHERE PRESIDENT TUDJMAN IS CONCERNED:

TAPE: CUT # 5 GOTOVAC/INTERPRETER "(SERBO-CROATIAN) THERE'S NEVER BEEN OPEN PRESSURE (FROM THE U-S) ON THE AUTHORITIES IN POWER. PRESSURE ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE MEDIA. EUROPE INSISTS ON IT. SINCE THE AMERICANS NEVER SPEAK ABOUT IT, WE HAVE THE IMPRESSION THE AMERICANS AREN'T INTERESTED IN THIS, THAT THE ONLY THING THEY ARE INTERESTED IS WHETHER MR. TUDJMAN WOULD BE INTERESTED IN THE SAME FOREIGN POLICY (AS THE UNITED-STATES)."

TEXT: MR. GOTOVAC SAYS AMERICA IS NAIVE WHEN IT PORTRAYS PRESIDENT TUDJMAN AS A PATRIOTIC NATIONALIST. IT WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE, HE THINKS, TO UNDERSTAND THAT MR. TUDJMAN IS JUST LIKE HIS SERBIAN COUNTERPART, PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC: A FORMER COMMUNIST TRYING AT ALL COSTS TO STAY IN POWER. (SIGNED)
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16-May-96 2:55 PM EDT (1855 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] CROATIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER (L-ONLY) BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: CROATIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THAT HIS GOVERNMENT EXPECTS TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEMS RAISED BY THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE IN ITS RECENT DECISION TO POSTPONE CROATIA'S ENTRY INTO THE ORGANIZATION. EARLIER THIS WEEK COUNCIL CITED CONCERNS ABOUT CIVIL RIGHTS AND INADEQUATE DEMOCRATIZATION IN CROATIA. V-O-A'S PAMELA TAYLOR REPORTS:

TEXT: FOREIGN MINISTER MATE GRANIC [MAH-TAY GRAH-NITCH] IS IN THE UNITED STATES TO TAKE PART IN TALKS ON PRESERVING THE FRAGILE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION FOR BOSNIA AS WELL AS OTHER MATTERS. WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE DECISION NOT TO ADMIT CROATIA AT THIS TIME, MR. GRANIC RESPONDED:

THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE DECIDED TO DELAY THE DECSION. THE NEXT MEETING IS ON THE 30TH OF MAY. CROATIA WILL TRY AND RESOLVE ALL THE PROBLEMS WITH THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE IN DIALOGUE. THEY HAD SOME OBJECTIONS ON THE ELECTION OF THE MAYOR OF ZAGREB (ISSUE) AND WE PLAN TO RESOLVE IT.

THE CONTROVERSY OVER THE MAYOR OF ZAGREB WAS ACTUALLY PARTLY RESOLVED IN A DECISION LAST WEEK BY CROATIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT TO OVERTURN PRESIDENT TUDJMAN'S ATTEMPTS TO DISSOLVE THE CITY COUNCIL WHICH APPOINTS THE CITY'S MAYOR. THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL HAD SOME OTHER CONCERNS ABOUT CROATIA, AMONG THEM THE LACK OF A FREE AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA. MR. GRANIC DENIED THIS CHARGE:

CONCERNING THE PRESS, THAT JOURNALISTS ARE ABSOLUTELY FREE. CONCERNING THE TV, WE HAVE SOME INFLUENCE BY THE GOVERNMENT ON THE TV BUT THE TV AND RADIO ARE DEFINITELY INDEPENDENT AND THERE ARE MANY PRIVATE, LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS.

MR. GRANIC SAID THESE MATTERS CAME UP IN HIS CONVERSATIONS WITH U-S VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE AND SECRETARY OF STATE WARREN CHRISTOPHER AND THAT HE ASSURED THEM CROATIA WAS WORKING TO RESOLVE THESE ISSUES. IN FACT, HE SAID, HIS BI-LATERAL TALKS WITH U-S OFFICIALS HAD FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC MATTERS AND THE QUESTION OF ADMISSION TO THE NATO PARTNERSHIP FOR PEACE PROGRAM:

WE BELIEVE THAT THE U-S AND ITS NATO PARTNERS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE TO EXPAND FULL MEMBERSHIP IN THE ALLIANCE TO CROATIA, ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF OTHER DEMOCRACIES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE. IN ADDITION, THE EARLY INTEGRATION OF CROATIA AND THE OTHER NEW DEMOCRACIES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE INTO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONS, SUCH AS THE EUROPEAN UNION ALSO IS CRITICAL.

DURING HIS WASHINGTON VISIT, MR. GRANIC ALSO TALKED WITH NEWLY-APPOINTED COMMERCE SECRETARY MICKEY KANTOR ABOUT A PLANNED MISSION TO CROATIA AND BOSNIA IN EARLY JULY. THE MISSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WORK OF FORMER COMMERCE SECRETARY RON BROWN, WHO ALONG WITH SEVERAL HIGH-RANKING BUSINESS EXECUTIVES, PERISHED IN AN AIRPLANE ACCIDENT NEAR DUBROVNIK IN EARLY APRIL. (SIGNED)
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16-May-96 5:03 PM EDT (2103 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] TURKEY/JORDAN (L ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: JORDAN'S KING HUSSEIN HAS ARRIVED IN TURKEY FOR A ONE-DAY WORKING VISIT. AS AMBERIN ZAMAN REPORTS FROM ANKARA TALKS BETWEEN THE JORDANIAN MONARCH AND TURKISH PRESIDENT SULEYMAN DEMIREL ARE CENTERED ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ARAB- ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS, IN IRAQ AND WATER SHARING BETWEEN THE REGIONAL STATES.

TEXT: OFFICIALS CLOSE TO THE TALKS SAY KING HUSSEIN HAS BEEN BRIEFED BY THE TURKISH PRESIDENT ON THE RECENT MILITARY COOPERATION DEAL SIGNED BETWEEN TURKEY AND ISRAEL.

UNDER THE AGREEMENT ISRAELI PILOTS ARE NOW ALLOWED TO USE TURKISH BASES AND AIR-SPACE FOR TRAINING PURPOSES. MANY ARAB COUNTRIES AND SYRIA IN PARTICULAR HAVE PROTESTED THE DEAL. THEY SAY IT THREATENS THEIR SECURITY.

TURKEY INSISTS THE AGREEMENT -- THE FIRST COMPREHENSIVE MILITARY ACCORD TO BE SIGNED BETWEEN ISRAEL AND A MUSLIM COUNTRY -- IS FOR PEACEFUL PURPOSES ONLY.

ANKARA HOPES KING HUSSEIN, WHO WAS AMONG THE FEW ARAB LEADERS TO REACT MILDLY TO THE ACCORD, WILL HELP CONVINCE TURKEY'S ARAB NEIGHBORS THE PACT IS NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS THEM.

OFFICIALS SAY TURKEY HAS ALSO EXPRESSED ITS RESERVATIONS ABOUT KING HUSSAIN'S PROPOSALS FOR A FEDERAL STATUS FOR IRAQ. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE LOCAL AUTHORITY OF THE COUNTRY'S MAJORITY SHIITE POPULATION IN THE SOUTH AND OF ITS ESTIMATED THREE-MILLION KURDS IN THE NORTH.

TURKEY FEARS FEDERALISM IN IRAN WOULD ENCOURAGE ITS OWN KURDISH POPULATION -- NUMBERING ABOUT 12-MILLION -- TO PRESS FOR GREATER ADMINISTRATIVE FREEDOMS.

TURKEY'S DISPUTE WITH SYRIA AND IRAQ ABOUT SHARING WATER FROM THE EUPHRATES RIVER WAS ALSO DISCUSSED. BOTH SYRIA AND IRAQ SAY TURKEY'S MULTI-BILLION-DOLLAR PROJECT TO BUILD A NETWORK OF 22-DAMS ON THE RIVER HAS JEOPARDIZED THEIR WATER SUPPLY. BOTH COUNTRIES ARE DEMANDING TURKEY SIGN A FINAL AGREEMENT GUARANTEEING THEM A FIXED SHARE OF THE EUPHRATES' WATERS. SYRIA AND IRAQ HAVE TAKEN THE MATTER BEFORE THE ARAB LEAGUE. (SIGNED)
NEB/AZ/MH/RAE
16-May-96 11:02 AM EDT (1502 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] U-S-BOSNIAN SERBS (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE UNITED STATES SAYS IT DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE AUTHORITY OF BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN KARADZIC TO DISMISS HIS PRIME MINISTER. RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT.

TEXT: THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE DEALING WITH RAJKO KASAGIC, THE BOSNIAN SERB PRIME MINISTER, AND REJECTS THE AUTHORITY OF THE INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL RADOVAN KARADZIC TO FIRE HIM.

STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN NICHOLAS BURNS SAYS DESPITE MR. KARADZIC'S ATTEMPT TO DEMONSTRATE HIS CONTINUED ROLE, HE WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO RUN IN ELECTIONS PLANNED FOR THE SERBIAN ENTITY IN BOSNIA LATER THIS YEAR.

THERE'S A SPLIT BETWEEN SOME IN PALE AND THOSE IN BANJA LUKA. THAT'S WHY JOHN KORNBLUM LAST WEEK WENT TO BANJA LUKA, TO MEET WITH THE BOSNIAN SERB LEADERSHIP INCLUDING KASAGIC, AND I THINK THAT'S SOMETHING THAT KARADZIC HAS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT. HE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT IT. HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RUN IN THESE ELECTIONS.

THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S JOHN KORNBLUM SPOKE WITH SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC ON THE TELEPHONE, AND WON THE SERBIAN LEADER'S SUPPORT FOR THE BOSNIAN SERB PRIME MINISTER AS WELL AS FOR FREE ELECTIONS IN THE BOSNIAN SERB CONTROLLED AREAS. (SIGNED)
NEB/RP/MMK
16-May-96 2:01 PM EDT (1801 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] YUGO BANK BY BARRY WOOD (PRAGUE)

INTRO: TWO YEARS AND FOUR MONTHS AFTER LAUNCHING A PROGRAM THAT ENDED ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST SEVERE EPISODES OF HYPER-INFLATION, THE SOCIALIST DOMINATED YUGOSLAV PARLIAMENT DISMISSED 78-YEAR-OLD CENTRAL BANK CHIEF, DRAGOSLAV AVRAMOVIC. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS THE OUSTER OF THE RESPECTED OFFICIAL CAUSED THE YUGOSLAV DINAR TO LOSE 10 PERCENT OF ITS VALUE AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK.

TEXT: DRAG AVRAMOVIC IS A FOLK HERO IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO. EARLIER THIS WEEK FACTORY WORKERS, UNPAID FOR MONTHS, RALLIED OUTSIDE PARLIAMENT IN DEFENSE OF THE CENTRAL BANK CHIEF.

ALL DAY WEDNESDAY MR. AVRAMOVIC WAGED A PUBLIC BUT ULTIMATELY UNSUCCESSFUL BATTLE TO KEEP HIS JOB. HE ACCUSED THE GOVERNMENT OF INCOMPETENCE AND PREDICTED A NEW BOUT OF INFLATION. AFTER LONG NEGOTIATIONS, SERBIAN SOCIALISTS WON THE BACKING OF MONTENEGRIN PARLIAMENTARIANS IN THE VOTE AGAINST MR. AVRAMOVIC.

SEVENTY-FIVE DEPUTIES VOTED FOR THE OUSTER AND 33 AGAINST. THE UPPER CHAMBER OF THE FEDERAL PARLIAMENT SOON FOLLOWED SUIT. THE DINAR, WHICH HAD TRADED FOR THREE-POINT-THREE TO THE MARK IMMEDIATELY SANK TO THREE-POINT-SIX.

ON WEDNESDAY MR. AVRAMOVIC PREDICTED FRESH INFLATION WITHIN 45 DAYS. HE SAID MONETARY EXPANSION IS INEVITABLE. REFLECTING ON HIS TENURE, THE RETIRED WORLD BANK OFFICIAL SAID HE WORKED WITH AN EFFICIENT TEAM BUT EVERYTHING HAS TO END. HE SAID HIS OUSTER OCCURRED SOONER THAN HE HAD EXPECTED.

MR. AVRAMOVIC'S CONSERVATIVE FREE MARKET VIEWS HAD FOR A LONG TIME CREATED TENSION WITH SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODON MILOSEVIC AND THE GOVERNMENT DOMINATED BY FORMER COMMUNISTS. THE CONFLICT SURFACED AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL WHEN MR. AVRAMOVIC ACCUSED THE GOVERNMENT OF BLOCKING ACCESS TO NEEDED FOREIGN CAPITAL BY REFUSING TO ACCEPT CONDITIONS FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. HE WAS REMOVED AS CHIEF NEGOTIATOR WITH THE I-M-F AND ON NEGOTIATIONS TO RESCHEDULE FOREIGN DEBT.

WHEN HE TOOK THE CENTRAL BANK JOB IN JANUARY, 1994, THE YUGOSLAV INFLATION RATE HAD REACHED SEVERAL MILLION PERCENT. THE CURRENCY WAS WORTHLESS AND PRICES CHANGED SEVERAL TIMES A DAY. HIS REMEDY WAS INTRODUCTION OF A NEW DINAR AND A HALT TO PRINTING MONEY. THE CURRENCY WAS FIXED AT A RATE OF ONE TO ONE WITH THE GERMAN MARK.

THE AVRAMOVIC PROGRAM ENDED HYPER-INFLATION BUT DID NOTHING TO EASE THE IMPACT OF UNITED NATIONS IMPOSED ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. THE YUGOSLAV ECONOMY CONTINUED TO CONTRACT. LIVING STANDARDS CONTINUED TO FALL.

WHEN SANCTIONS WERE LIFTED FOLLOWING THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT MR. AVRAMOVIC DEVALUED THE CURRENCY AND URGED THE GOVERNMENT TO LAUNCH A COMPREHENSIVE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM. WHILE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPOKE IN FAVOR OF PRIVATIZATION, NOTHING HAS YET BEEN DONE. SAYING THE ECONOMY COULD NOT RECOVER WITHOUT AN INFLUX OF MONEY, MR. AVRAMOVIC MADE RE-ENTRY INTO THE I-M-F HIS TOP PRIORITY. THIS HAS BEEN BLOCKED BY THE GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT INSISTS THAT AS THE SUCCESSOR TO THE OLD YUGOSLAVIA BELGRADE NEVER GAVE UP ITS MEMBERSHIP.

MR. AVRAMOVIC HAS PREDICTED ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE FOR YUGOSLAVIA AND ACCUSED THE GOVERNMENT OF CORRUPTION. THE BELGRADE GOVERNMENT, HE SAYS, HAS NOT DECIDED IF IT WANTS TO DEAL WITH THE WEST OR WITH REMAINING COMMUNIST COUNTRIES LIKE NORTH KOREA. (SIGNED)
NEB/BDW/MH/CF
16-May-96 9:05 AM EDT (1305 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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