Voice of America, 24 January 1996

From: "Ioannis V. Bousnakis" <ivb19@nfi.com>

Voice of America Directory

CONTENTS

[01] BOSNIA/POW'S (L ONLY) BY DAVID FOLEY ( SARAJEVO )

INTRO: A MEETING IN SARAJEVO BETWEEN SENIOR OFFICIALS OF ALL SIDES IN BOSNIA HAS ENDED WITHOUT RESOLVING THE ONGOING PROBLEM OVER PRISONERS OF WAR. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WAR BEGAN THE PRIME MINISTERS OF THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT AND THE BOSNIAN SERBS MET IN THE BOSNIAN CAPITAL. DAVID FOLEY REPORTS FROM SARAJEVO.

TEXT: THOUGH THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT HAS BEEN IN FORCE FOR OVER A MONTH, AND PEACE HAS INDEED COME TO BOSNIA, IT WAS STILL A STRANGE SIGHT -- THE BOSNIAN SERB PRIME MINISTER, THE LITTLE KNOWN RAJKO KASAGIC, ATTENDING A MEETING IN DOWNTOWN SARAJEVO, ALONG WITH THE CURRENT BOSNIAN PRIME MINISTER, HARIS SILAJDZIC, AND THE MAN WHO WILL SOON REPLACE HIM, HASSAN MURATOVIC.

THE PRIME MINISTER OF THE MUSLIM CROAT FEDERATION WAS ALSO THERE, FOR THE MEETING HELD BY THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL OFFICIAL IN BOSNIA CARL BILDT.

THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE NOW IN BOSNIA IS THE CONTINUING FAILURE BY THE SIDES TO COMPLY WITH THE PEACE ACCORD BY RELEASING ALL THEIR PRISONERS OF WAR. DESPITE THE ARRAY OF PRIME MINISTERS, LITTLE PROGRESS WAS MADE AT THE MEETING.

CARL BILDT SAID HE HAD WARNED THE SIDES THERE WOULD BE CONSEQUENCES FOR THEIR CONTINUED DETENTION OF P-O-W'S, BUT HE SAID HE HAD MADE NO SPECIFIC THREATS, SUCH AS DELAYING RECONSTRUCTION AID UNTIL THE SIDES COMPLY.

THE AGREEMENT IS THERE, AND IT'S THERE TO BE IMPLEMENTED, AND WE ARE GOING TO GO THROUGH SITUATIONS WHERE THE ONE OR THE OTHER SIDE WANT TO CHANGE THAT OR THIS SIDE, AND WE HAVE ALREADY BEEN THROUGH A NUMBER OF THOSE, AND THE ONLY THING, THE ONLY WAY WE CAN CARRY THROUGH THE IMPLEMENTATION IS TO STICK TO THE AGREEMENT.

BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS STILL WANT INFORMATION ON THOUSANDS OF THEIR MISSING PEOPLE BEFORE MORE THAN 300 P-O-W'S ARE RELEASED.

AMERICAN OFFICIALS, REJECTING ANY ATTEMPT TO LINK THE ISSUE OF P-O-W'S TO THE ISSUE OF THE MISSING, HAVE THREATENED TO CUT OFF PLANNED MILITARY ASSISTANCE UNLESS THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT COMPLIES WITH THE DAYTON PLAN.

IN A FURTHER COMPLICATION, THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS HAS CONFIRMED THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT HAS, FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, BEEN REFUSING TO GRANT RED CROSS MONITORS ACCESS TO A GOVERNMENT PRISON IN TUZLA, WHERE UNKNOWN NUMBER OF SERBS, NOT ON THE P-O-W LISTS, ARE REPORTEDLY HELD PRISONER. THE RED CROSS SPOKESMAN, PIERRE GAUTHIER, SAID THE RED CROSS WANTS TO INSPECT THE PRISON.

WE WILL CONTINUE WORKING AND MAKING STEPS TOWARDS THE RELEVANT AUTHORITIES IN THIS REGION TO GAIN ACCESS TO THIS PRISON.

GAUTHIER SAYS THE RED CROSS CAN ONLY HOPE SOMETHING POSITIVE WILL HAPPEN.

KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE AND TRY TO SEE IF THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING MOVES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS, BUT AT THIS STAGE, FRANKLY SPEAKING, WE HAVE NOTHING.

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THE FAILURE OF THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT TO COMPLY WITH ONE SECTION OF THE AGREEMENT COULD LEAD THE BOSNIAN SERBS TO SAY THEY WILL NOT COMPLY WITH A PART OF THE AGREEMENT THEY ARE UNHAPPY WITH, SPECIFICALLY THE WITHDRAWAL FROM SERB-HELD SUBURBS OF SARAJEVO.

SERB ARMY UNITS MUST BE OUT ONLY TEN DAYS FROM NOW, AND INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT IS GROWING STRONGER EVERY DAY. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 3:26 PM EST (2026 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] BOSNIA / MOSTAR (S ONLY) BY WAYNE COREY (VIENNA)

INTRO: BOSNIAN MUSLIMS AND CROATS HAVE FAILED TO AGREE ON NEW ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS IN THE DIVIDED CITY OF MOSTAR IN SOUTHWESTERN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. V-O-A'S CENTRAL EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT WAYNE COREY REPORTS THE EUROPEAN UNION ADMINISTRATOR OF MOSTAR EXPECTS TO IMPOSE A SOLUTION TO THE DISPUTE NEXT WEEK.

TEXT: A SPOKESMAN FOR E-U ADMINISTRATOR HANS KOSHNICK SAYS A MUSLIM-CROAT AGREEMENT ON ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS OF A REUNITED MOSTAR IS NOT POSSIBLE.

MR. KOSHNICK INTENDS TO ANNOUNCE HIS OWN SOLUTION TO THE DISPUTE AFTER TALKS WITH EUROPEAN UNION FOREIGN MINISTERS IN BRUSSELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MUSLIMS, WHO OCCUPY EASTERN MOSTAR, AND THE CROATS, WHO CONTROL THE WESTERN PART OF THE CITY, HAVE SAID THEY WILL ACCEPT MR. KOSHNICK'S SOLUTION (WHATEVER IT IS). AN AGREEMENT ON THE ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS OR MUNICIPAL BOUNDARIES OF MOSTAR IS A VITAL STEP TOWARD PLANNED LOCAL ELECTIONS LATER THIS YEAR.

IF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN MOSTAR ARE NOT RESOLVED, THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION IN BOSNIA WOULD, PROBABLY, NOT SURVIVE.

IF THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION COLLAPSES, E-U OFFICIALS IN MOSTAR TOLD V-O-A THE ENTIRE PEACE AGREEMENT FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WOULD FALL APART TOO. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 11:34 AM EST (1634 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] BOSNIA SITREP (L ONLY) BY WAYNE COREY (VIENNA)

INTRO: BOSNIAN MUSLIMS AND CROATS HAVE FAILED TO AGREE ON NEW ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS TO REUNITE THE DIVIDED TOWN OF MOSTAR IN SOUTHWESTERN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA. V-O-A'S CENTRAL-EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT WAYNE COREY REPORTS THE EUROPEAN-UNION ADMINISTRATOR OF MOSTAR INTENDS TO IMPOSE A SOLUTION TO THE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ISSUE.

TEXT: A SPOKESMAN FOR E-U ADMINISTRATOR HANS KOSHNICK SAYS HE BELIEVES AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS ON NEW ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS IN MOSTAR IS NOT POSSIBLE.

MOSTAR IS DIVIDED BETWEEN THE DEVASTATED MUSLIM EASTERN HALF OF THE CITY AND THE RELATIVELY UNSCATHED AND MORE PROSPEROUS CROAT-CONTROLLED WESTERN PART.

THE E-U ADMINISTRATOR PLANS TO IMPOSE HIS OWN SOLUTION FOR THE CREATION OF ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS OR MUNICIPAL BOUNDARIES OF MOSTAR IN A MOVE TO REUNITE THE CITY.

MR. KOSHNICK WILL CONSULT FIRST WITH EUROPEAN UNION FOREIGN MINISTERS IN BRUSSELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS IN MOSTAR HAVE SAID THEY WILL ACCEPT E-U ARBITRATION OF THE DISPUTE ABOUT ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS.

THE RE-UNIFICATION OF MOSTAR IS A CRITICAL TEST OF WHETHER THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA IS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN AGREEMENT ON PAPER.

IF MOSTAR REMAINS DIVIDED, AS MANY CROATS WANT IT TO BE, E-U OFFICIALS THERE TOLD V-O-A THE FEDERATION WOULD COLLAPSE. IF THE FEDERATION COLLAPSES, THE OFFICIALS SAY THE ENTIRE PEACE AGREEMENT FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WOULD COLLAPSE TOO.

THERE ARE STILL PROBLEMS IN ORGANIZING AN EFFECTIVE JOINT POLICE FORCE IN MOSTAR. THESE PROBLEMS ARE LIMITING FREE MOVEMENT, WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE GUARANTEED, BETWEEN THE MUSLIM AND CROAT SECTIONS OF THE CITY.

WHILE THE EUROPEAN UNION STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME THE PROBLEMS IN MOSTAR, THE PRIME MINISTER OF THE SELF-DECLARED BOSNIAN-SERB REPUBLIC, RAJKO KASAGIC, IS MAKING AN UNPRECEDENTED VISIT TO SARAJEVO.

E-U REPRESENTATIVE CARL BILDT WAS TO PRESIDE OVER TALKS INVOLVING MR. KASAGIC, OUTGOING BOSNIAN PRIME MINISTER HARIS SILAJDZIC, AND THE PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE, HASAN MURATOVIC.

AN IMPORTANT ISSUE IN THE TALKS WILL BE STALLED PRISONER RELEASES. THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS SAYS THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT IS HOLDING UN-REGISTERED SERB PRISONERS.

THE UNITED STATES HAS WARNED THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT MAY NOT GET MILITARY AND ECONOMIC AID UNLESS IT FREES ALL ITS PRISONERS AS REQUIRED BY THE BOSNIAN PEACE AGREEMENT. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 12:53 PM EST (1753 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] CROATIA ECON (L ONLY) BY BARRY WOOD (PRAGUE)

INTRO: CROATIA'S CENTRAL BANK IS REVISING UPWARDS ITS ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 1996 TO AT LEAST EIGHT-PERCENT. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS.

TEXT: IF THE FORECASTS PROVE ACCURATE CROATIA WILL PASS SLOVENIA TO BECOME THE BEST PERFORMING ECONOMY IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA.

CROATIAN CENTRAL BANK OFFICIAL VELIMIR SONJE SAYS A STRONG REBOUND IN TOURISM IS LIKELY SINCE THE FIGHTING HAS STOPPED, AND CROATIA HAS REGAINED CONTROL OF IMPORTANT DISTRICTS ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL RESORTS.

THE CENTRAL BANK IS PROJECTING A NINE-PERCENT GAIN IN TOURIST REVENUES TO ONE-POINT-EIGHT-BILLION DOLLARS. CROATIA, WITH ITS LONG ADRIATIC COASTLINE, IS HOME TO BEACH RESORTS THAT HAVE FOR YEARS BEEN POPULAR WITH TOURISTS FROM WESTERN EUROPE.

DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RECENTLY PREDICTED EIGHT-PERCENT GROWTH FOR THE CROATIAN ECONOMY. THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN HOLDING TO A MORE MODEST FIVE-PERCENT PROJECTION, BUT THAT HAS NOT BEEN ABANDONED. TOURIST INDUSTRY OFFICIALS SAY CONFIDENCE HAS RETURNED TO THE BIG WESTERN TOUR OPERATORS WHO ARE ALREADY MAKING THEIR SUMMER BOOKINGS.

CROATIA'S ECONOMY DID NOT GROW AT ALL IN 1995, BUT A REBOUND HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS. ON INFLATION, THE GOVERNMENT'S PERFORMANCE IS EXEMPLARY WITH PRICES HAVING RISEN BY ONLY FOUR-PERCENT IN 1995. THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AS WELL AS DEUTSCHE BANK, GIVES THE CROATIAN AUTHORITIES HIGH MARKS FOR SUCCESSFULLY INTRODUCING THE NEW CURRENCY, THE KUNA, WHICH SINCE MAY 1994 HAS HELD STEADY AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK.

BUT WHILE THE CROATIANS HAVE MADE IMPRESSIVE GAINS, THEY LAG IN OTHER IMPORTANT AREAS. PRIVATIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW, AND THE ECONOMY FAILED TO GROW IN 1995 AFTER A MODEST RISE IN 1994. LIVING STANDARDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, AND THE AVERAGE MONTHLY WAGE IN CROATIA IS LESS THAN 350-DOLLARS.

ECONOMISTS SAY CROATIA WILL BENEFIT FROM INCREASED SPENDING BY NATO FORCES, WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT INSTALLATIONS IN ZAGREB AND SPLIT. THE INTERNATIONAL HOTELS IN THOSE CITIES ARE FULL MOST OF THE TIME.

CROATIA'S EXPORTS CONTINUE TO LAG AND REMAIN BELOW THOSE OF NEIGHBORING SLOVENIA, WHOSE ECONOMY POSTED MORE THAN FIVE-PERCENT GROWTH LAST YEAR. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 7:55 AM EST (1255 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] PERRY/BOSNIA (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (PENTAGON)

INTRO: NATO FORCES IN BOSNIA HAVE BEEN PLACED ON A HEIGHTENED STATE OF ALERT OUT OF FEAR OF CAR BOMB ATTACKS AND OTHER TERRORIST ACTIVITY. U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM PERRY CONFIRMED THE SECURITY STEP UP HERE IN WASHINGTON. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS FROM THE PENTAGON.

TEXT: MR. PERRY SAYS U-S AND OTHER PEACEKEEPING FORCES ARE ON WHAT HE CALLED "HIGH ALERT" BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE TERRORIST ATTACKS. BUT HE SAYS THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF ANY TERRORISTS OR EXTREMISTS ACTUALLY TRYING TO ENTER U-S FACILITIES IN BOSNIA.

THE HEIGHTENED SECURITY REPORTEDLY WAS ORDERED OUT OF CONCERN THAT ISLAMIC MILITANTS IN BOSNIA -- AMONG THEM AN AMERICAN EXPATRIATE -- ARE PLANNING ATTACKS ON U-S TARGETS.

U-S INTELLIGENCE IS SAID TO FEAR THAT MILITANTS ARE PLOTTING ATTACKS AS RETALIATION FOR THE LIFE PRISON TERM HANDED DOWN THIS MONTH TO RADICAL MUSLIM CLERIC SHEIK OMAR ABDEL RAHMAN -- CONVICTED OF CONSPIRING TO BOMB NEW YORK CITY LANDMARKS AND KILL POLITICAL LEADERS THERE.

IN A TALK WITH DEFENSE REPORTERS, MR. PERRY WOULD GIVE NO DETAILS OF THE ALLEGED THREATS. BUT HE SAID U-S COMMANDERS BELIEVE TERRORISTS ARE THE GREATEST SINGLE SOURCE OF DANGER TO THE PEACEKEEPERS, AND THE TROOPS ARE BEING WARNED NOT TO BECOME COMPLACENT.

THE DEFENSE CHIEF ALSO SAID HE AND SECRETARY OF STATE WARREN CHRISTOPHER HAVE GIVEN DIRECT AND UNAMBIGUOUS WARNINGS TO THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL NOT GO FORWARD WITH PLANS TO ARM AND TRAIN GOVERNMENT FORCES UNTIL ALL FOREIGN TROOPS, INCLUDING ISLAMIC VOLUNTEERS HAVE LEFT THE COUNTRY.

WHILE THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORD REQUIRED THEIR DEPARTURE LAST WEEK, THE STATE DEPARTMENT HAS EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT SOME ISLAMIC FIGHTERS REMAIN IN THE COUNTRY. SOME ARE UNDERSTOOD TO HAVE MARRIED BOSNIAN CITIZENS OR OTHERWISE ACQUIRED RESIDENT STATUS.

MR. PERRY ALSO SAID U-S INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION COULD YIELD IMPORTANT CLUES THAT WILL AID THE PROSECUTION OF ALLEGED WAR CRIMINALS IN BOSNIA. HE MENTIONED IN PARTICULAR AERIAL SURVEILLANCE PHOTOS OF SREBRENICA, WHERE MASS KILLINGS ARE REPORTED TO HAVE FOLLOWED THE CAPTURE OF THE EASTERN MUSLIM ENCLAVE BY BOSNIAN SERB FORCES LAST JULY.

HE SAID THE UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE THE INFORMATION TO THE U-N WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL ON A SELECTIVE BASIS, AND THAT AMERICAN TROOPS IN BOSNIA WILL LIMIT THEIR INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR CRIMES PROBE TO PROVIDING SECURITY FOR INVESTIGATING TEAMS. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 4:50 PM EST (2150 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] ROMANIAN PARADOX BY ED WARNER ( WASHINGTON)

INTRODUCTION: AT A MEETING IN THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER IN WASHINGTON, A LEADING WRITER ON ROMANIA GAVE AN ANALYSIS OF THE COUNTRY'S PROGRESS SINCE ITS COMMUNIST REGIME WAS OVERTHROWN IN 1989. VOA'S ED WARNER ATTENDED AND HAS THIS REPORT.

TEXT: ROMANIA TODAY OFFERS A STARTLING PARADOX, SAID VLADIMIR TISMANEAUNU, PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND.

THE MOST ABRUPT BREAK WITH THE OLD ORDER SEEMS TO HAVE RESULTED IN ITS LEAST RADICAL TRANSFORMATION. MANY OLD FACES REMAIN IN POWER WHILE SKILLFULLY PUTTING ON NEW MASKS. ROMANIA WATCHERS ARE THUS DIVIDED BETWEEN THOSE WHO HIGHLIGHT THE FAILURE OF THE REVOLUTION AND THOSE WHO THINK PRESIDENT ILIESCU HAS DONE HIS UTMOST UNDER THE EXISTING CIRCUMSTANCES TO TURN HIS COUNTRY INTO A FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACY.

THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO BOTH POINTS OF VIEW, SAID PROFESSOR TISMANEAUNU IN A TALK TO THE WOODROW WILSON CENTER IN WASHINGTON. CONTINUITY WITH THE COMMUNIST PAST MAY BE MORE MARKED IN ROMANIA THAN ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE. BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

I ARGUE THAT DURING THE YEARS THAT HAVE PASSED SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF THE CEAUCESCU REGIME, ROMANIA HAS ESTABLISHED A PROTO-DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK AND REASONABLY FAIR ELECTORAL PROCEDURES. IN ADDITION, THE COUNTRY'S CIVIL SOCIETY, ALTHOUGH BELEAGUERED, HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. WHAT IS MISSING, HOWEVER, IS SOCIAL TRUST AND A TRULY LIBERAL POLITICAL CENTER CONSTITUTED PRIMARILY ON THE BASIS OF SHARED ULTIMATE VALUES RATHER THAN IMMEDIATE PARTY AFFILIATIONS AND SYMPATHIES.

EVEN HARD-LINERS DO NOT TALK OF RETURNING TO THE COMMUNIST PAST, SAID PROFESSOR TISMANEAUNU. THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR A COMMAND ECONOMY OR CULTURAL UNIFORMITY. THERE IS NO NOSTALGIA FOR THE REPRESSIVE CEAUCESCU REGIME. PERSONAL DICTATORSHIP HAS BEEN DISMANTLED AND REPLACED BY OPEN COMPETITION AMONG POLITICAL PARTIES.

THE GOVERNMENT DOMINATES NATIONAL TELEVISION AND TRIES TO INFLUENCE THE MAJOR NEWSPAPERS, SAID PROFESSOR TISMANEAUNU. BUT THE BIGGEST DAILIES ELUDE CONTROL, AND EXTREMIST PUBLICATIONS, WHILE THEY EXIST, ARE HARD TO FIND.

HE BELIEVES THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY IS ON THE MEND AND MAY BE GREATLY STRENGTHENED BY A NEW LAW GOVERNING PRIVATIZATION.

BUT HE NOTED THE LINGERING DRAWBACKS OF THE COMMUNIST PAST.

A DEEPLY INGRAINED AUTHORITARIAN LEADERSHIP STYLE AND A DISTRUST OF DIALOGUE. EXCESSIVE PERSONALIZATION OF POLITICS. FRAGMENTATION OF THE OPPOSITION. LACK OF A COMMON VISION OF THE PUBLIC GOOD. THE INCHOATE AND PROVISIONAL NATURE OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES. THE GROWING PUBLIC DISSATISFACTION WITH THE EFFECTS OF HALF-HEARTED REFORMS. THE ENDURANCE OF THE COMMUNIST MENTALITIES AND METHODS IN THE FUNCTIONING OF IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONS AND THE FAILURE TO LAUNCH A SERIOUS DISCUSSION OF THE COUNTRY'S PRE-COMMUNIST AND COMMUNIST EXPERIENCE.

IF UNCORRECTED, SAID PROFESSOR TISMANEAUNU, THESE WEAKNESSES CAN LEAD TO FRUSTRATION, DESPAIR AND NON-DEMOCRATIC SOLUTIONS. HE URGED DEMOCRATIC FORCES IN ROMANIA TO CLOSE RANKS AND COOPERATE FOR MUTUAL SUPPORT. (SIGNED)

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24-Jan-96 4:44 PM EST (2144 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America