Subject: TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (2) BY ED WARNER/WASHINGTON
Topic: voa
From: yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis)
 
DATE=4/19/95
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-20250
TITLE=TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD  (2)
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  TURKEY WAS CONSIDERED A VITAL U.S. ALLY DURING THE COLD 
WAR.  MORE RECENTLY, TURKEY'S ROLE IS DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT BUT 
THOUGHT TO BE  NO  LESS IMPORTANT TO U.S. AND WESTERN INTERESTS. 
STANDING BETWEEN EAST AND WEST, BETWEEN CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM 
NATIONS, IT SERVES AS BOTH A BRIDGE AND A BULWARK.  YET IT IS 
BESET BY MANY PROBLEMS, WHICH ARE BEING DISCUSSED THIS WEEK AS 
PRIME MINISTER TANCU CILLER MEETS PRESIDENT CLINTON IN 
WASHINGTON.  IN THIS REPORT (THE SECOND OF TWO), VOA'S ED WARNER 
TALKS TO TWO ANALYSTS ABOUT CURRENT RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO 
NATIONS. 

TEXT:  THE U-S GOVERNMENT SAYS IT WANTS TO ENCOURAGE DEMOCRATIC 
DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY AND AT THE SAME TIME HELP PROTECT IT 
AGAINST ADVERSARIES WITHIN ITS BORDERS AND BEYOND.  BUT MANY 
TURKS CLAIM U-S POLICY HARMS TURKEY WHILE TURKEY IS ENGAGED IN 
COMBATTING ARMED REBELLION IN THE SOUTHEAST.

U-S SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ HAVE SHUT DOWN THE OIL PIPELINE FROM 
IRAQ TO TURKEY, WHICH IS VITAL TO THE ECONOMY OF THE SOUTHEAST.  
IMPOVERISHMENT THERE HAS HELPED THE OUTLAWED KURDISH WORKERS 
PARTY, KNOWN AS THE P-K-K, TO RECRUIT GUERRILLAS.  IN NORTHERN 
IRAQ KURDISH GROUPS FIGHT AMONG THEMSELVES AND THE POWER VACUUM 
THERE ENABLES P-K-K REBELS TO ESCAPE TURKISH ARMY PURSUIT.

UNDERSTANDABLY, SAYS SABRI SAYARI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE 
INSTITUTE OF TURKISH STUDIES IN WASHINGTON, TURKEY WOULD LIKE A 
CHANGE IN POLICY: 

                      // SAYARI ACTUALITY //

         TURKS ARE VERY INTERESTED IN HAVING THE U-N SANCTIONS 
         REMOVED BECAUSE THAT HAS BEEN HURTING THE TURKISH 
         ECONOMY IN A MAJOR WAY, WHEREAS, AS WE KNOW, THE U-S IS 
         STILL INTERESTED IN ISOLATING SADDAM HUSSEIN AND USING 
         THE SANCTIONS AS A MEANS OF ULTIMATELY REMOVING HIM.  
         THE WHOLE ISSUE OF THE FUTURE OF IRAQ -- ON THAT THE TWO
         COUNTRIES PERHAPS MAY  NOT  SEE EYE TO EYE.  I THINK 
         TURKS, HAVING BEEN NEIGHBORS OF THAT BRUTAL REGIME IN 
         IRAQ, PROBABLY HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN (PROSPECTS FOR) 
         THE DOWNFALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN ANY TIME NEAR.

                          // END ACT //

PROFESSOR SAYARI HASTENS TO ADD THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS IN 
GENERAL BEEN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF TURKEY.  IT FAVORS TURKEY'S 
ADMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHILE MOST EUROPEAN MEMBERS ARE 
COOL TO THE IDEA.  THE UNITED STATES ALSO SUPPORTS BUILDING AN 
OIL PIPELINE FROM THE CAUCASUS THROUGH TURKEY INSTEAD OF THROUGH 
RUSSIA OR IRAN -- A MATTER DISCUSSED IN SOME DEPTH AT PRIME 
MINISTER CILLER'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON THIS WEEK.

PROFESSOR SOLI OZEL, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES 
AT JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN 
WASHINGTON, THINKS THE U.S. POLICY OF DUAL CONTAINMENT OF IRAN 
AND IRAQ WILL  NOT  RESOLVE THE REGION'S POLITICAL PROBLEMS:  

                      // OZEL ACTUALITY //

         ON THE OTHER HAND, VARIOUS PEOPLE IN THE CLINTON 
         ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN VERY UNDERSTANDING AND 
         SUPPORTIVE OF MANY THINGS THAT THE TURKISH AUTHORITIES 
         DO.  I THINK THEY HAVE GIVEN UNEQUIVOCAL SUPPORT TO 
         TURKEY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE P-K-K.  BUT THERE WILL 
         ALSO BE A LOT MORE PRESSURE PUT ON TURKEY TO GET ITS 
         DOMESTIC DEMOCRATIC HOUSE IN ORDER BECAUSE TURKEY CANNOT
         CONTINUE TO CLAIM THAT IT IS ABOUT TO DEMOCRATIZE WHEN 
         IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A DEMOCRACY FOR THE PAST 50 YEARS,
         MIND YOU.

                          // END ACT //

PROFESSOR OZEL CONCEDES THERE ARE MANY HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN 
TURKEY, RELATED IN PART TO THE P-K-K REBELLION AND TO THE RISE OF
A FERVENT ISLAMIC POLITICAL PARTY CALLED "REFAH," OR "WELFARE."  
IN LAST YEAR'S ELECTIONS, REFAH WON A SURPRISING NUMBER OF 
OFFICES, INCLUDING MAYORS OF ISTANBUL AND ANKARA.

PROFESSOR OZEL SAYS IT IS CRUCIAL TO TREAT REFAH DEMOCRATICALLY 
AND  NOT  OVERREACT:

                      // OZEL ACTUALITY //

         I DON'T BELIEVE IN ANY POLITICAL PARTY WHICH TRIES TO 
         KEEP TURKEY IN A STRAIT JACKET BY PROJECTING UPON A VERY
         DIVERSE SOCIETY A VERY SIMPLISTIC VISION OF HOW THAT 
         SOCIETY OUGHT TO BE ORGANIZED.  I DON'T THINK ANY SUCH 
         PARTY CAN BE SUCCESSFUL.  HOWEVER, I THINK ONE OUGHT TO 
         LOOK AT THE SUCCESS OF THE WELFARE PARTY MOSTLY IN 
         POLITICAL AND SOCIAL TERMS.  THERE ARE VERY GOOD REASONS
         FOR PEOPLE TO BE EXTREMELY RESENTFUL OF THE EXISTING 
         ORDER OF THINGS -- DISTRIBUTION OF POWER, DISTRIBUTION 
         OF INCOME AND THE EXISTENCE OF CORRUPTION.  POLLS 
         INDICATE THEIR SUPPORT IS MAINLY PEOPLE EITHER 
         PROTESTING OR JUST BEING SYMPATHETIC BUT  NOT  
         NECESSARILY VISUALIZING AN ISLAMIC SOCIETY IN TURKEY.

                         // END ACT //  

PROFESSOR OZEL SAYS REFAH HAS BEEN EXEMPLARY IN PROVIDING 
SERVICES TO THE POOR NEWCOMERS TO ISTANBUL AND ANKARA AND HAS 
AVOIDED THE CORRUPTION HE BELIEVES IS TOO PREVALENT IN CURRENT 
POLITICS.  ONE ANSWER TO TURKEY'S SOCIAL PROBLEMS, SAY THE TWO 
PROFESSORS, IS REDUCING INFLATION AND PRIVATIZING THE INEFFICIENT
STATE OWNED INDUSTRIES THAT CONSUME SO MUCH OF THE NATION'S 
BUDGET.  (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/CF

19-Apr-95 1:36 PM EDT (1736 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America