Subject: MANY PLAYERS IN AZERBAIJAN By ED WARNER/WASHINGTON
From: "Demetrios E. Paneras" <dep@bu.edu>
 
DATE=3/23/95
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-19980
TITLE=MANY PLAYERS IN AZERBAIJAN
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:  

INTRO:  AFTER YET ANOTHER MILITARY UPRISING IN AZERBAIJAN, 11 OF  
ITS POLITICIANS ARE IN THE UNITED STATES EXPLAINING THEIR  
COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS AND LOOKING FOR HELP.  AT A (RECENT)  
CONFERENCE (THIS WEEK) AT THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR  
INTERNATIONAL PEACE, THEY OFFERED VARYING VIEWS ON AZERBAIJAN'S  
CURRENT INSTABILITY.  VOA'S ED WARNER ATTENDED AND HAS THIS  
REPORT.  

TEXT:  NATION BUILDING IS ALL THE HARDER IN THE CAUCASUS BECAUSE  
OF OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE, SAID PAUL GOBLE, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE  
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE.  INTRODUCING A GROUP  
OF VISITING AZERBAIJANI POLITICIANS, MR. GOBLE SAID THEIR COUNTRY
IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE:  

                      // GOBLE ACTUALITY //

         THE PROBLEMS OF OF FORMING A STATE, THE PROBLEMS OF  
         ARTICULATING A POLITICAL SYSTEM THAT IS MORE OPEN THAN  
         WAS POSSIBLE IN THE PAST AND WHERE THE STATE RULES BY  
         AUTHORITY RATHER THAN BY FORCE, ARE OVERWHELMING.  WE DO
         NOT  YET SEE PLURALISM IN AZERBAIJAN.  WE SEE A HIGHLY  
         SEGMENTED SOCIETY WITH GROUPS PARTICIPATING IN POLITICS  
         AS A ZERO SUM (ALL OR NOTHING) GAME WITH WINNERS AND  
         LOSERS SEEING THE OUTCOME AS BEING SO FATEFUL THAT THEY  
         HAVE  NO  CHOICE BUT TO GO TO VIOLENCE.  AND WHAT WE  
         HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST 10 DAYS IS ONLY THE LATEST EPISODE
         OF THOSE UNDERLYING REALITIES.

                          // END ACT //

MR. GOBLE REFERRED TO STILL ANOTHER MILITARY REBELLION THAT WAS  
ONCE AGAIN PUT DOWN BY PRESIDENT GAIDAR ALIYEV -- THIS TIME WITH  
BLOODSHED.  THOUGH ITS LEADER WAS A TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL WHO  
LOST HIS LIFE, SOME RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT WAS SUSPECTED.  

THAT'S  NOT  THE END OF IT, PREDICTED MR. GOBLE.  THERE WILL BE  
FURTHER EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE THE ONLY COUNTRY IN THE CAUCASUS  
THAT HAS MANAGED TO KEEP OUT RUSSIAN TROOPS.

ONE OF THE VISITING POLITICIANS, FUAD MUSTAFAYEV, SAID RUSSIA HAS
NOT  DEVELOPED A COHERENT POLICY TOWARD AZERBAIJAN:  

          // MUSTAFAYEV ACT. FROM RUSSIAN TO ENGLISH //

         ANY CURRENT ASPECT OF ITS POLICY TENDS TO CHANGE ALONG  
         WITH CHANGES INSIDE RUSSIA ITSELF.  I AM FAR FROM  
         CLAIMING THAT ANY FORCES IN RUSSIA BELIEVE IT'S POSSIBLE
         TO LEAVE AZERBAIJAN, PULL OUT OF AZERBAIJAN ALTOGETHER,  
         WHETHER IT IS THE SO-CALLED NATIONALISTIC FORCES OR THE  
         SO-CALLED CENTRIST BLOC OR ELSE THE DEMOCRATS.

                          // END ACT //

NOT  JUST RUSSIANS HAVE AN INTEREST IN AZERBAIJAN, NOTED FUAD  
GULIEV.  TURKEY, IRAN, AND THE UNITED STATES ARE ALSO INVOLVED IN
DISCUSSIONS ABOUT OIL PIPELINES FROM AZERBAIJAN'S RICH OIL  
FIELDS:   

         // GULIEV ACTUALITY FROM RUSSIAN TO ENGLISH //

         EACH OF THE COUNTRIES HAS ITS INTERESTS AT STAKE. AND  
         AZERBAIJAN HAS TO BALANCE ITSELF BECAUSE IF AZERBAIJAN  
         GIVES ITS PREFERENCE TO ANY PARTICULAR STATE, IT WILL  
         GET INTO  NO  END OF TROUBLE FROM OTHER STATES.

                          // END ACT //

OTHER SPEAKERS WARNED OF POSSIBLE AGGRESSIVE DESIGNS BY IRAN, AND
PRESIDENT ALIYEV HAD EVEN SUGGESTED A TURKISH CONNECTION IN THE  
LATEST MILITARY UPRISING.  THERE ARE MANY PLAYERS IN AZERBAIJAN  
TODAY, SAID THE VISITING POLITICIANS, AND THE GAME IS ALMOST TOO  
COMPLEX TO BE UNRAVELLED.   (SIGNED)

23-Mar-95 11:29 AM EST (1629 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
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