U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE 95/09/20 DAILY PRESS BRIEFING

From: Dimitrios Hristu <hristu@corbett.harvard.edu>

U.S. State Department Directory

Subject: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE 95/09/20 DAILY PRESS BRIEFING

[...]

FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

  Holbrooke's Schedule, Activities.....................3, 10-11

  Serbian Compliance with Withdrawal of Weapons........4

  FM's of Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia Meeting in New York..4

  Secretary's Meeting with FM's in New York............5

  UN/NATO Enforcement of Ceasefire.....................5-6

  Cessation/Restraint of Military Operations --

   Bosnians, Croats, Bosnian Serbs....................6, 11-12

  Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.....................6-9

   Meetings in Washington w/Federation Reps...........7

   Bosnian Serb Loyalty to Federation.................7

   Health of Federation...............................7

  Alternative Bosnian Serb Leadership..................7-8

  Holbrooke's Temporary Replacement in Balkans.........10

  Contact Group Meeting................................10

  Serbian Involvement in Fighting......................12-13

  Russian Concerns.....................................13

[...]

TURKEY

  Resignation of PM Ciller.............................26

[...]

[...]

Q Bring us up-to-date on Bosnia.

MR. BURNS: I'll be glad to.

Dick Holbrooke is back. He arrived early this morning, and he is taking a well-deserved day off in New York City.

We have been following the situation on the ground in Bosnia very closely. There are indications that the withdrawal of Bosnian-Serb heavy weapons from the Sarajevo exclusion zone is continuing. We believe that the stranglehold on Sarajevo, put in place so brutally by the Bosnian Serbs, is mostly lifted.

I think it's fair to say that the situation there is dramatically different from what it was even a few weeks ago. As you know, nonmilitary civilian goods are now moving freely into Sarajevo through the three roads that were opened up by the agreement offered by the Bosnian Serbs last week and conveyed to various parties by the United States. The Kiseljak, Hadzici, and airport roads are open.

There are very few checkpoints on these roads -- in some cases, no checkpoints. It's very important that not only food and medicine but badly needed supplies for the people of Sarajevo are moving into the city -- specifically furniture, cement, tools -- items that the people of Sarajevo need to rebuild their homes and to prepare for the coming winter.

We don't believe that the siege of Sarajevo can be considered to be totally lifted until there is a free flow of people and vehicles into Sarajevo. In this sense, we would just like to reiterate today: The Bosnian Serbs should understand that they cannot and should not undertake any military operations within this area of the Sarajevo exclusion zone and, if there are offensive military operations, NATO reserves the right to take the appropriate action.

As we approach the deadline for compliance, which is 4:00 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time, we will be looking to the United Nations and to NATO to indicate to us their judgment as to whether or not the Bosnian Serbs have, indeed, complied with the terms of the agreement, now that the l44th hour is approaching.

We have been in touch with the United Nations and NATO. I understand there was a meeting this morning that General Janvier, General Rupert Smith, and Admiral Leighton Smith had in Sarajevo about this. We would expect a public announcement from the United Nations and NATO on the situation, and then I think you'll see our Government react to that announcement.

We do believe the situation has improved, but we do want to emphasize that the Bosnian Serbs must not undertake any offensive military operations either in the coming hours or in the period after the compliance is judged or not judged to have met the standards set out last Friday.

Q There's a report in the newspaper today that said that the Foreign Ministers of Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia would be meeting in New York. Can you comment on that?

MR. BURNS: I don't have an announcement to make about any meetings. Secretary Christopher plans to take advantage of the presence of many of the officials from that region in New York next week to have meetings concerning Bosnia, but I don't have any announcements right now about a specific meeting with the three Foreign Ministers.

Q Do you expect those two Foreign Ministers to be there?

MR. BURNS: I think the Governments of Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia will be represented at a very high level in New York next week. I think there will be a lot of discussions next week, led by the United States, about the situation in Bosnia, but I just don't have any specific announcement to make about particular meetings.

Q This would be -- if the meeting took place, it would be the Secretary's first direct role in negotiations; is that correct?

MR. BURNS: The Secretary has been, of course, involved all along the way in directing the work of Dick Holbrooke. He has not been out in the field in Bosnia or in Serbia conducting the day-to-day negotiations.

Q This will be his first meeting with those three men since the peace process sort of grew?

MR. BURNS: I don't have any meeting to announce. He met Foreign Minister Granic last week. He's spoken on the telephone with President Izetbegovic, Prime Minister Silajdzic, Foreign Minister Sacirbey. He's had constant contact. I have no meeting to announce.

Q Okay.

MR. BURNS: Bill.

Q Yes. Thank you.

With regard to enforcement of the peace -- this is, of course, very good news that the Bosnian Serbs are in compliance or may be; but there were reports of a mortar attack apparently coming from Bosnian-Muslim parts of Sarajevo against Serb suburbs of Sarajevo. I understand in parts of the country that personnel are coming from Serbia to aid the Serbs around Banja Luka and that the offensive against Banja Luka continues in spite of the fact that Richard Holbrooke has received some assurances that it will cease soon, or it will cease.

But, Nick, my question is: Is there any enforcement by the U.N. and NATO contemplated to bring about a complete cease-fire in Bosnia?

MR. BURNS: We are dealing with really separate questions here. The United Nations and NATO are going to assess and judge by 4:00 p.m. our time today whether or not the Bosnian Serbs are in compliance. We are very anxiously awaiting that judgment.

There are two separate questions, apart from that, I think, that you have asked Bill. One is there apparently were some mortar rounds fired this morning, and we are working with the United Nations and NATO to try to determine who is responsible for the firing of the mortar rounds. We have seen conflicting reports on that.

Secondly, you asked about a wider application of U.N. and NATO authority and power to try to achieve a cessation in the fighting. I think the United States has made quite clear over the course of the last couple of days that we think that it is time for the parties to turn towards peace.

We do not believe today that the Bosnian and Croatian armies will advance upon Banja Luka. We do believe that there has been a rather dramatic slow-down in the military operations that they have conducted in central and western Bosnia, but not a complete cessation of those military activities.

Q Have Mr. Granic or Mr. Silajdzic made a commitment to Mr. Holbrooke to bring about a complete cessation?

MR. BURNS: Well, I think that Dick Holbrooke and his delegation received an indication yesterday that the city of Banja Luka would not be subjected to an offensive military attack.

Bosnian Foreign Minister Sacirbey said yesterday that the time has come to de-emphasize military operations -- I am quoting him -- and to emphasize political discussion.

We agree with that statement. We welcome it and we support it, and we hope that that is, in fact, what the Bosnian and Croatian Governments now intend to do. We certainly hope that is what the Bosnian Serbs intend to do.

Q Did Milosevic tell Ambassador Holbrooke that Banja Luka would be, in effect, a trip-wire for Serbian troops coming into the region?

MR. BURNS: I'm not aware that he said anything like that. I am not in a position to say yes or no. I talked to Ambassador Holbrooke this morning, have a general description of his trip and his conversations, but not of one so specific as that. I have not heard that in any of the conversations that I have had privately here in the Department.

Q Nick, there apparently is a delegation, representatives of the Federation, of the presidency of the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina in town this week. They have had meetings here. They will be having meetings at the White House. And I believe it's primarily composed of Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Serbs loyal to the government of Bosnia Herzegovina.

Do you have any information as to the contents of the discussion that they have been having?

MR. BURNS: I don't. We have delegations here in Washington frequently. I don't have any information on this particular one.

Q Can you tell me then, as a follow-up, what is the estimate of this Department regarding the shift of loyalties on the part of the Bosnian Serbs? There are about, I think, l5 percent Bosnian Serbs loyal to the government of the Federation, and this seems to shift now as disappointment and disillusionment with the policies of Karadzic and Mladic have grown within the Serb population.

What are the estimates of a shift, in that respect, towards reviving the multi-ethnic nature of the Federation of Bosnia- Herzegovina?

MR. BURNS: Well, if there is a shift occurring, and if people throughout Bosnia are going to begin to have greater allegiance to the Federation, and particularly to the Bosnian Government, that will be a very good thing, indeed.

I am not in a position to attach proportional figures to that shift in sentiment, if it indeed is occurring. Certainly there is a lot of reason for people, Bosnian Serbs in particular, to be disillusioned with the Bosnian Serb leadership because they have created a catastrophe for themselves, particularly in their interactions over the last month or so and they certainly have seen a dramatic reversal of their own military and political fortunes on the ground.

Tom.

Q Sacirbey is talking about trying to make some kind of political deal with some alternative Serb leadership in Banja Luka. It may just be another term for capitulation.

Do you see anything realistic in what he is talking about?

MR. BURNS: We see the same reports, Tom. I think we have even seen public statements from Minister Sacirbey about his intention to try to negotiate a transfer of authority in Banja Luka.

We are not going to put ourselves in the position of championing this kind of tactical maneuver, if that's indeed what it is.

The fact is that we are going to be most effective when we can argue broadly for peace, and in this case the United States has led the initiative to set up a peace process. It's on-going. We'd like to get to a peace conference. So we will refrain from the temptation to comment on particular episodes like this.

We think that the most important thing is for them now to prepare the way to sit down to talk about the Contact Group map and plan, the division of territory between the two major ethnic communities that will make up a future Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Q Nick, what is your assessment of the health of the Federation?

MR. BURNS: Our assessment is that the Federation since its inception some time ago has had to operate under enormous strains produced by the war, but that the meeting yesterday between President Izetbegovic and President Tudjman was a step in the right direction, because both publicly reaffirmed in a joint statement their commitment to maintaining the Federation and, indeed, strengthening the Federation politically as well as militarily.

I think you have seen militarily that there has been a great deal of cooperation and coordination between the two over the last couple of weeks and with good results for them on the ground.

Politically there certainly can be a lot more done to strengthen the Federation, particularly in their joint administration of several of the cities. That is what we have encouraged them to do. That was actually the aim of Dick Holbrooke's meeting with the two leaders yesterday.

Of course, they talked about other issues, but the major focus of the meeting was on the Federation itself.

Q Could you be a little more specific on strengthening the administration -- specifically strengthening the administration of the joint areas? Are there other things? Can you expand on that a little bit?

MR. BURNS: Well, I think I'd refer you to the somewhat detailed joint statement that was issued by the two Presidents yesterday about the Federation. But I understand, as I remember from reading it, that they did reaffirm their commitment to the Washington agreement -- that's from February of this year -- and the subsequent agreements that talked about strengthening the Federation.

They agreed to undertake further integration of the Federation. They agreed that their strategic cooperation in a military-political sense would continue to aim towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

They agreed that all refugees and displaced persons had the right to return to their homes. They reaffirmed their commitment to work jointly with the international humanitarian organizations that are doing such a good job in helping refugees.

So those are some details. I would refer you to the Bosnian and Croatian Governments for others, and the Federation itself for others.

Q Those of us who have bureaus there have seen that. You mentioned that the U.S. would like them to do something. Can you expand on that a little bit?

MR. BURNS: Can we be more specific about what we'd like them to do?

Q You just said it, strengthen their cooperation in jointly administered areas, I think is what you said.

MR. BURNS: Well, we think the creation of the Federation was a very important development for both, particularly for the Bosnian Government, in strengthening the resistance of both countries against Bosnian Serb aggression.

We think the continuation of the Federation is particularly important now, as the parties hopefully will move towards a peace conference where these political and constitutional issues of governance will be at the center of a peace conference, in addition to the questions over land, and who gets what part of the land of Bosnia- Herzegovina.

A great challenge will be to decide on the governing structure of a future state, the government itself, and on a system of laws that hopefully will provide ultimately for some sort of stability.

So all of these things are very vitally important, and we continue to encourage the Federation to work on them. You know, the Secretary has a special adviser, the noted attorney Roberts Owen, who has been part of Dick Holbrooke's delegation, who has reported to the Secretary frequently in the last couple of weeks about these issues of governance and the issues of constitutionality that will be so important to the peace conference.

So we have been involved with them. We have very great hopes that the Federation will continue.

Steve.

Q MR. BURNS: Nick, assuming, as many do, that the Serbs around Sarajevo will be found in compliance and that bombing raids do not begin at least in the shorter run, has the United States left anyone behind, since Holbrooke has come back, to push this process along? And could you speculate for us, or tell us, what the next likely move is going to be after that, assuming it happens?

MR. BURNS: We have permanently left behind our Ambassadors in Zagreb and Sarajevo and our Charge d'Affaires in Belgrade, all of them senior diplomats of this government, and all of them highly respected here.

All of them work on a day-to-day basis with the leaders of each of these countries; our Charge in Belgrade, Mr. Perina, sees Mr. Milosevic frequently, as do Peter Galbraith and our Embassy, of course, in Sarajevo.

I think the diplomacy will shift somewhat towards New York into next week. The United Nations General Assembly opening will see a collection of world leaders, many of them who have an interest or a direct involvement in this drama in the Balkans.

The Secretary intends to take advantage of his presence in New York next week to meet a number of them, and the Secretary will obviously want to see if we can push forward the peace process and to make progress on it towards our objective, which is a peace conference.

Q Nick, to follow that up. Will Mr. Holbrooke then delay any return to the region until after next week's meetings?

MR. BURNS: I don't believe that Dick Holbrooke has any plans to return to the region pending the discussions next week in the New York that the Secretary will conduct.

Q Will there be a Contact Group meeting, as such?

MR. BURNS: I don't have anything to announce on that. I think most members of the Contact Group will be in New York on the same days next week. We have not yet announced a meeting. I think it's fair to say there will be lots of discussions, both formal and informal, about Bosnia.

This is a major priority for the United States. Having achieved so much in the last couple of weeks, we're going to use every ounce of diplomatic strength and creativity that we have to push it forward. Next week will be a good example of that.

Q Is Holbrooke reporting? He's delayed in New York?

MR. BURNS: Holbrooke is resting today in New York. He'll be returning to Washington tomorrow.

Q Does he report to the President? When does he report on the Milosevic meeting to the Secretary, or has he? Did he do an overnight letter?

MR. BURNS: Yes. He's been on the phone with the Secretary since his arrival, and he's been on the phone with a number of other people here. He'll be coming back down to Washington tomorrow. He'll be engaged in a detailed briefing with Secretary Christopher tomorrow morning, and there will be additional meetings tomorrow as well on this issue. Tomorrow is a big day, internally here, to assess how far we've come, where we need to go, and how we can get there.

Q Are you as confident as you were yesterday -- and reports seem to bear out your confidence -- that the Bosnian Government and the Croats will restrain their offensive all around the country?

You described Sarajevo as being dramatically different. That would have a lot to do with the guns. There were warlords, if I can use that word, yesterday, even while you were saying hopeful things, that were saying: "We're going to press our offensive." And border-crossings were cited. What's your feel today?

MR. BURNS: Our assessment is that the situation in Sarajevo itself and for the 20-kilometer zone around Sarajevo is stable; that it has taken a dramatic turn for the better; that the people of Sarajevo now have the prospect of a peaceful winter in contrast to the terrible winters of the past.

In the situation throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina, we are reasonably confident, based on the direct commitments given to us yesterday, that Banja Luka, which is, of course, a very important city for the Bosnian Serbs, will not be subjected to a direct military offensive. I am less confident that fighting is going to cease throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina, particularly in the West and Central parts of the country. There are many, many reports just in the last couple of hours about fighting around important cities and fighting in small towns and in agricultural areas.

Given the number of factions in the area, given some of the reports of a counter-offensive from the Bosnian Serbs -- at least from some elements loyal to the Bosnian Serbs -- I think we can expect to see additional fighting in that area, Barry.

Q All three groups are someplace on the move?

MR. BURNS: And different factions of the groups, and so forth.

Q Nick, if I could follow on that and go back to the issue of interference or a joining by Serbians of the Bosnian Serb forces -- insofar as movement of personnel and materials from Serbia? Once again, the question: What has Milosevic had to say on this particular subject? Is he still very firmly in favor of the agreements that he's made so far with Richard Holbrooke?

MR. BURNS: I have nothing to report to you on any movement of goods or material or people from Serbia into areas controlled by the Bosnian Serbs, which I believe was really the goal of your first question.

On the second question, pertaining to Mr. Milosevic, I believe the United States, in this case, Dick Holbrooke, has found him -- during the last several weeks on these issues of Sarajevo, the issue of forming a joint delegation -- to be reliable. He has certainly, I think, made very clear in public his strategic intention to try to move the situation from one of warfare to one of discussions for peace. That is, in fact, where the United States and our allies believe the situation should be headed.

Q Understood. Back to John's question about a trip-wire. Has Milosevic warned that the Croatian and Bosnian Muslim forces can go only so far before there is some kind of reaction from Serbia?

MR. BURNS: I don't want to discuss and cannot discuss any details from our private negotiations. I think, though, as a general point, it is obvious that Serbia has its own strategic interests in the region and that Serbia, in the past, has made known its intention to protect those interests. That is certainly a factor, that everybody involved has to pay attention to. I believe the Bosnian and Croatian Governments are aware of that reality.

Q That was one of the two main points that Holbrooke was to take up with Milosevic. Are you giving us sort of a sidewise warning that he may not have gotten very far on that?

MR. BURNS: No, I'm not. I'm just trying to state a fact which I think is part of the calculation that everybody involved has to be aware of.

It's certainly the hope and desire of the United States that Serbia will not involve itself militarily in the fighting that continues in Central and Western Bosnia, or in any part of the fighting throughout Bosnia-Herzegovina. That message has been communicated directly to President Milosevic time and again. It cannot have been misunderstood.

It is also true, however, as an objective fact, that Serbia, as a strong country -- strong military presence in the region -- has its own interests. Others have to be aware of those interests, and I think that the other parties are aware of those interests.

Q Has the Russian Government reiterated any new or renewed concerns regarding the offensives that are going on?

MR. BURNS: I have not seen any new comments from Moscow. I believe after the developments of last week -- namely, the pause in NATO bombings, the prospect of an agreement on Sarajevo, and the trip of Deputy Secretary Talbott -- we have restored a sense of stability in U.S.-Russian relations on this issue and that the United States and Russia are, indeed, working together on this issue.

There was a Contact Group meeting hosted by the Russian Federation at the Russian Mission in Geneva last Friday. Secretary Christopher has been in close touch with Minister Kozyrev and will be again next week when they meet on this particular issue.

We're off Bosnia? We're still on Bosnia.

Q Do you have any kind of a readout yet on the meeting between Strobe Talbott and Georgiy Mamedov in Annapolis?

MR. BURNS: Strobe Talbott and Deputy Foreign Minister Mamedov are meeting today at the U.S. Naval Academy. That is the venue for the Strategic Stability Talks. This is one in a series of meetings that we've had with the Russians going back to early in 1993. They're going to be discussing the situation in Bosnia and, I think, more importantly for this particular set of discussions, the process of NATO expansion, the development of a NATO-Russia relationship, and a number of the bilateral issues that will be discussed by the two Presidents -- President Yeltsin and President Clinton -- in New York in mid-October when they have their meeting.

[...]

Q It has been announced by the Prime Minister that the Turkish coalition government will resign. Do you have a comment on that?

MR. BURNS: Excuse me? The Turkish --

Q The coalition government will resign. It was announced by the Prime Minister.

MR. BURNS: Yes. We understand that Prime Minister Ciller has resigned and that she will shortly submit her resignation formally to President Demirel. I certainly don't want to speculate on whom the President might ask to form a new government. Our relations with Turkey are excellent, and we're confident that this will not change.

Governments do change from time to time. It's up to the Turkish people to decide questions like this, and we very much will respect that in the coming days and will refrain from detailed comments on the situation.

[...]

(Press briefing concluded at 2:02 p.m.)

END