TRKNWS-L Turkish Daily News (March 5, 1996)

From: TRKNWS-L <trh@aimnet.com>

Turkish News Directory

CONTENTS

TURKISH DAILY NEWS / 5 March 1996

[01] Ankara says Simitis has to pursue policy of deconfrontation

By Ilnur Cevik

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Ankara feels Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, who is regarded here as a moderate, has to follow a policy of deconfrontation between Turkey and Greece "at least until he is prepared to start a meaningful dialogue with Ankara" on the disputes between the two countries, a high-ranking Turkish Foreign Ministry official told the Turkish Daily News.

The official, who asked not to be named, said if Simitis fails to do this and if hawks like Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos and Defense Minister Gerasimos Arsenis manage to get the upper hand and continue provocations against Turkey the tensions between the two countries will inevitably escalate to a dangerous level and may lead to a serious conflict.

Turkey is aware that infighting is occurring in the Greek socialist party (PASOK) among Simitis, Pangalos and Arsenis for domination and does not want to further complicate matters for the Greek prime minister. "However, he (Simitis) has to realize that the provocations cannot go on forever without forcing Ankara to reciprocate and thus open the way for a dangerous escalation in the Aegean," the official said.

"We realize that Simitis cannot find the environment to talk to Turkey at the moment while he has to deal with hawks like Pangalos and Arsenis. However, until the time comes when he finds himself prepared to establish a dialogue with us he may well curb Greek provocations in the European Union and the Aegean," the official explained.

"Simitis has to prevent the creation of an environment of conflict," the official warned.

The official said Defense Minister Arsenis is playing domestic politics by trying to cash in on anti-Turkish sentiments and thus is encouraging Greek military provocations in the Aegean.

"Greek navy vessels have been deployed in the area just a few miles off the Turkish coast which is considered here as a provocation. There are 17 war vessels near the (disputed) Kardak islets just off our mainland. This is unacceptable," the official said.

The official also stressed that Foreign Minister Pangalos is busy harassing Turkey at the EU, again with the aim of gaining points at home and thus making valuable investments for his political ambitions.

"The Greeks have to tame their hawks and allow the doves to speak up," the official stressed.

"If Simitis wants to strengthen his hand against the hardliners then we can wait for him. But the provocations have to stop," he said. The official warned that once the escalation in the Aegean started the situation would deteriorate at a fast pace and would turn into a serious conflict.

The official said the Greeks have more to lose from a confrontation than Turkey. The official refused to elaborate but the Turkish Daily News learned from business circles that officials had contacted them on the prospects of banning Greek ships from carrying goods to and from Turkish ports. Businessmen said that according to international rules an official ban on Greek shipping was illegal but stressed this could be done unofficially. "We can always rule out allowing Greek ships carrying our goods," a leading business official told the TDN.

He asked not to be named. Other Foreign Ministry officials told the TDN Turkey could impose visa restrictions on Greeks visiting Turkey. "Until now Greek clergy have been allowed to enter and leave Turkey without any hindrance while Greece has even banned our Religious Affairs director from visiting the country to meet members of the Turkish Moslem minority. Greece also did not allow Turkish imams to visit the Turks in that country during the holy month of Ramadan. Now we can also curb the visits of Greek clergy to the Orthodox Church in Istanbul," the officials said.

The ranking Foreign Ministry official said Greece has to properly assess the gains and losses which its current policy of confrontation can lead to and act accordingly.

[02] Five years seen too long for Motherpath coalition

TDN Parliament Bureau

ANKARA- Though it has not yet been formed officially, there are already those who say that the Motherland Party (ANAP)-True Path Party (DYP) government will be short-lived. The coalition is being formed for a period of five years but it is doubtful it will last longer than one year. The two parties have failed to resolve their disagreements completely, some of which have been reflected in the coalition protocol.

There are four basic problems which threaten the durability of the government for which the ANAP and DYP leaders, Mesut Yilmaz and Tansu Ciller, have signed a protocol. These are mutual distrust, lack of adequate parliamentary support, the abundance of critical issues and the fact that both parties must convene their congresses by the end of the current year.

Distrust

Leaders of the two parties had an escalating, harsh verbal duel during the election campaign. That duel was revived from time to time in the two months which have passed since the Dec. 24 election, deepening the confidence crisis between the two would-be coalition partners. It is still fresh in everyone's mind that Yilmaz called Tansu Ciller and her inner circle, including her husband Ozer Ciller, "the waterfront mansion gang." And that Ciller referred to Yilmaz as a "swindler, the one that runs away." During their time in the government, DYP circles sent two former ANAP ministers before the High Court on corruption charges and this fuelled the hard feelings between the two parties.

Some dailies and TV stations took sides in this conflict, provoking an escalation of the confidence crisis. It does not seem likely that this climate of mutual mistrust will be eliminated immediately once the ANAP-DYP coalition government is formed.

Judging by certain parts of the coalition protocol, the two parties themselves expect the climate of mistrust to continue.

Article 2 of the protocol, for example, says care will be taken to ensure "continuation of the climate of trust" and, immediately after that, "to the party leader who does not undertake the post of prime minister at the time, the prime minister and the ministers would ensure the flow of necessary information regarding the government work." According to one argument this clause will render the Council of Ministers unable to make any decisions on time. The ministers would feel the need to supply information to their own party leader first and have consultations with him or her before making any move.

Lack of adequate parliamentary support The coalition government commands 260 seats in the 550-seat Parliament. The total of the ANAP and DYP seats is 261 but in practice the two parties have 260 votes because the Speaker, Mustafa Kalemli of the ANAP, does not have the right to vote. So in practice the ANAP-DYP votes fall 16 short of the 276-vote parliamentary majority. Since Bulent Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP) has agreed to abstain during the vote of confidence initially there will be no problem. But it would be practically impossible for the coalition to pass laws which the DSP found objectionable. From time to time the coalition partners may be inclined to transfer opposition deputies to fill that gap but resorting to that method would be bound to fuel unrest in the DYP and ANAP ranks and strengthen the in-party opposition in both the DYP and ANAP. So the coalition would face the risk of having to give up some of its ambitious goals involving, for example, the privatization and social security policies, and perform under the constant threat of the DSP withdrawing its indirect support.

Critical issues

The new coalition government will be faced with a series of critical debates and votes in Parliament which could either prevent it from being successful or make it collapse. On the issue of whether the mandate of the Poised Hammer (the international relief force for northern Iraq based in Turkey since the Gulf War) should be renewed, for example, ANAP and the DYP have had widely differing attitudes in the past four years.

The two parties are not expected to discontinue the emergency rule in the Southeast, at least for the time being.

The coalition protocol says a number of bills would be passed before the budget bill can be passed, citing in this respect the changes to be made in the Social Security Organization (SSK) and BAG-KUR, the social security organizations of the workers and self-employed, respectively. But that does not look likely. The True Path Party (DYP)-Republican People's Party (CHP) coalition had already tried to amend these two laws, and failed. The proposed amendments would extend the retirement age and increase the amount of time a worker must pay social security premiums to become entitled to the old age pension. The attempt to bring these to a vote can be expected to put great strain on both parties.

The government has set for itself as "urgent goals" the legislation of the proposed amendments to the Parliamentary Bylaws, the Agricultural Sales Cooperatives Law, the Banks Law, the Capital Market Law and the Customs Law. And this is no easy task at all.

The government seems to be risking failure right from the beginning. And the ambitious tasks it has set for itself fuel the negative expectations about its life span.

The year of party congresses

Both coalition partners will have to stage a congress this year. This legal obligation especially threatens Tansu Ciller's position. She will have to grapple with the DYP dissidents from a weakened position since she will no longer be prime minister.

If she cannot win reelection as party chairman, this will render the fate of the coalition even more uncertain.

The ANAP congress must also be held this year. The dissidents in the ranks of ANAP see Mesut Yilmaz as the man who has eroded popular support for the party. The presence of Korkut Ozal, a person capable of becoming the leader of ANAP's conservative wing, indicates that Yilmaz may live through dire moments at the congress.

The two leaders are expected to overcome this problem by finding an interim solution which would enable them to postpone both of these congresses until 1997. But even in that case the in-party opposition in both the ANAP and the DYP would remain as a potential factor which would shorten the life span of the coalition government. DYP circles note that by postponing the congress to 1997 Ciller would aim to silence the in-party opposition until she becomes prime minister once again under the rotating premiership system.

There is a widely-held conviction that if the ANAP-DYP minority government manages to survive the year 1996 and performs successfully in the course of that year, it will be able to survive the next four years, too.

[03] Turkey takes steps to salvage crashed jet in Aegean

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Turkey will shortly proceed to salvage a warplane which plunged into the Aegean after a mock skirmish last December and has commissioned a Swiss firm for the task, military sources said on Monday.

The Swiss company, Dilla Trading A.G./ Forgo will reportedly commence operations on March 15 if weather conditions permit.

Sources who asked not to be named told the Turkish Daily News that the crashed F-4E Phantom is thought to be lying on the seabed in international waters.

According to the Turkish General Staff, the aircraft is located southwest of the Greek island of Lesbos (Midilli) island at a depth of approximately 200 meters.

Sources said the Turkish General Staff will notify Greek officials in the coming days about the planned salvage operation.

They said the operation was motivated more by the anxiousness to find out what has happened to the missing pilot than retrieving the wreckage of the lost plane.

Pilot Altug Karaburun was reported missing after the jet crashed into the sea and is presumed dead. The other pilot had ejected to safety, was picked up by the Greeks and returned to Turkey.

To date all attempts to establish the fate of the missing pilot have failed, bringing the military officials under accusations that they had not done enough.

Referring to an earlier Athens news agency (ANA) report on Friday that a Greek trawler had found the wreckage off Lesbos, sources said a positive identification has not yet been possible on a 1.5-meter-long chunk of metal that got entangled in the vessel's nets.

In its report, ANA said the fishermen had found the wreckage 10 miles off Lesbos and that officials on the island were waiting for instructions from the Greek Foreign Ministry.

Although they are both members of the NATO alliance, Turkey and Greece frequently quarrel over Aegean airspace and seabed rights as well as the limits of territorial waters. The disputes often cause encounters between the fully armed jets over the Aegean. Testing their skills against each other, the rival pilots often engage in mock combat but in such encounters.

[04] Iraqi minister checks out pipeline amid uncertainty

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Amid conflicting signals on whether or not Iraq would accept the U.N. resolution of limited oil sales, an Iraqi minister arrived in Turkey Monday to check the condition of the Yumurtalik-Kirkuk pipeline, the U.N.-preferred route for oil exports.

Iraqi Oil Minister Amir Muhammad Rasheed said he was very positive about the progress of talks with the U.N. but some points of discussion remained.

Taking a surprising route to Turkey, the Iraqi minister arrived at Turkey's southeastern Habur border gate by crossing through northern Iraq which is not under Baghdad's control.

While some diplomatic observers said that this unprecedented route was a sign that Iraqi central authority and at least some of the Kurdish factions were mending fences, Ankara carefully refrained from comment.

"Why should he not come through northern Iraq? Is it not part of his own country?" a Turkish diplomat said, recalling that Turkey always supported the territorial integrity of Iraq. He denied, however, that Turkey played a role in the selection of this route or talked to the Kurds on Baghdad's behalf.

Rasheed and his ten-man delegation went to Ceyhan Monday to examine the twin pipeline that is the main outlet of Iraqi oil from the Kirkuk fields. He is also expected to visit the port facilities in Ceyhan, Turkey's Mediterranean port, from which Iraqi oil was distributed before the pipeline's closure in 1990.

Turkish officials say that the Turkish part of the pipeline is in good condition and can be put to use immediately after a political decision is reached.

But the Turkish Foreign Ministry still practices restraint on the prospects of opening the pipeline, given the conflicting signals on whether or not Iraq has accepted U.N. resolution 986.

"We would welcome the opening of the pipeline in line with the U.N. Security Council resolutions," Foreign Ministry spokesman Omer Akbel said at Monday's press conference, adding that this was an issue between the U.N. and Iraq; and Turkey was not a party.

The minister will arrive in Ankara today and participate in talks with the energy ministry. On Thursday, he plans to pay a courtesy visit to the Turkish foreign minister.

"The issues to be taken up are technical," Ambassador Akbel said.

Turkish lobbying has resulted in getting wording in Resolution 986 that the major part of the limited oil to be exported by Iraq should be transported through the Yumurtalik-Kirkuk pipeline.

The speculation that Iraq has accepted limited oil sales in exchange for food for its suffering people rose after a story in a newspaper printed by a son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said Baghdad had already agreed to implement U.N. Security Council resolution 986.

The story implied that this was a week-old announcement at the United Nations. Iraq held negotiations last month in New York with U.N. officials but the talks ended without Baghdad's public acceptance of the resolution.

"There are more and more suggestions that they are going to verbally accept resolution 986," said one senior diplomat. "Till now there is no official recognition. I doubt they will." In Algeria, Iraqi Vice-President Taha Yassin Ramadan denied his country had accepted U.N. resolution 986. The Algerian news agency APS reported that Ramadan "has denied the statements made by U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali who had said that Iraq had accepted Security Council resolution 986." APS quoted him as telling the press on Sunday in Algiers that the resolution aimed at undermining Iraq's sovereignty and interfering in its internal affairs.

The United Nations said formally late last week that Iraq must formally accept resolution 986 rather than taking a face-saving course of accepting its individual terms without mentioning the resolution. Talks resume in New York in one week on the sale, which would allow Iraq to export $2 billion of oil over a six-month period to buy food and medicine.

[05] Turkish inflation slows in February

ANKARA- Turkish inflation, both retail and wholesale, slowed down slightly last month, according to official figures released on Monday.

The State Institute of Statistics (DIE) said that consumer prices in February rose by 4.5 percent, sending the year-on-year rate to 77.5 percent. February's monthly rate is well below January's 8.3 percent, but above December's rate of 3.5 percent.

The DIE said wholesale prices went up 5.8 percent in February, the highest since last March with the exception of the 9.8 percent price surge in January this year. Wholesale price inflation was 4.1 percent in December, 4.3 percent in November and 4.4 percent in October.

The institute said the year-on-year wholesale price inflation in February was 63 percent, the lowest since 60.6 percent inflation in January 1994. Both the year-end 1995 and January 1996 wholesale rates were 64.9 percent.

Turkey's retail and wholesale inflation rates in the first two months of this year were 13.2 percent and 16.2 percent respectively, the DIE said.

It also reported that the average annual consumer and wholesale rates in February were 83.2 percent and 76.1 percent respectively.

In a loosely-worded statement on Sunday, Turkey's new conservative coalition said it planned to free interest and currency rates from government control and fight inflation.

The economic planners of the proposed center-right government between Tansu Ciller's True Path Party and Mesut Yilmaz's Motherland Party have not yet disclosed any comprehensive anti-inflation program.

[06] Turkey returns protests to Greece on ship incident

ANKARA- Turkey on Monday protested Greece for its violation of the right of innocent passage through Turkish territorial waters last week.

The protest was made to the Greek Embassy's counselor, a brief statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

The move comes after Greece protested to Turkey last Friday, saying a Greek missile boat and a Turkish coast guard vessel had collided near a disputed islet in the eastern Aegean Sea.

Greece also claims that the vessel was violating Greek national waters.

A Greek statement said the Greek ship was trying to chase off the Turkish boat when the bow of the Turkish ship touched the stern of the Greek. Ankara, for its part, blamed the Greek ship for "faulty maneuvering." There was minor damage which has already been repaired.

[07] US TV network apologizes to Turkey

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- The American television network CBS apologized for its depiction of the Turkish flag in its Jan. 14 edition of "Sixty Minutes," the Anatolia news agency reported Monday.

Ed Bradley, who anchored the segment of the program concerning Turkey's "Southeast" problem, appeared at the end of program on Sunday to report that CBS had received much negative reaction from Turks living in the United States. He specifically mentioned criticism of the display of the Turkish flag with a skull. "We understand very well and accept these viewers' views," Bradley said, acknowledging that CBS should have acted with more sensitivity regarding the Turkish flag.

CBS also aired a brief portion of a letter by Talat Halman, former Turkish minister of culture, which condemned the program.

Diplomatic observers recalled for the TDN that the Turkish government had reacted strongly and negatively to the Jan. 14 program. Turkey was particularly unhappy that only a brief segment had been aired from a long interview with Foreign Ministry Under Secretary Onur Oymen, while the portion of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State John Shattuck's interview which was broadcast raised a question of whether the U.S. Government had altered its position regarding the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). U.S. officials denied this had happened.

Turkish-American associations in the United States also condemned the program.

[08] Turkey gives diplomatic 'no' to Iranian participation

ANKARA- Turkey said on Monday that only the participants of a previous London conference would be invited to a donors' conference on Bosnia on March 15, thus closing the door to Iran, its neighbor and co-participant in the Islamic contact group for Bosnia.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Omer Akbel said on Monday that the guest list of the conference, which Turkey will host, consisted of "countries which participated in the London Conference for Bosnia." Iran is thus excluded from the conference. Iran is interested in training and equipping the Bosnian army. During the war, Iran sent a substantial number of mujaheddin fighters to Bosnia.

The Iranian Embassy in Ankara, meanwhile, has said that "Turkey and Iran are two countries which have continuously helped Bosnian Muslims and have cooperated for that purpose," the Anatolia news agency quoted.

If Iran did not attend the meeting, this would be only because of U.S. pressures, the statement said.

[09] Government timetable

ANKARA- The newly-formed coalition government is set to tackle head-on the problems that have been piling up since the inconclusive Dec. 24 election.

Following the signing of the coalition protocol on Sunday, the process regarding the formation of the government is expected to be completed early next week.

The protocol was debated by the ANAP parliamentary group on Monday and is to be discussed by the DYP group today.

Yilmaz, who was appointed to form the new government, is expected to present for approval a cabinet list to President Suleyman Demirel on either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

The new cabinet will be presented to Parliament on Thursday and the government program will reportedly be read out by Yilmaz.

Following the reading of the program, Parliament will debate its contents, after which a vote of confidence in the new government will be taken.

Under the timetable provided by the Constitution, if the government program is read on Thursday, the parliamentary debate will occur on Sunday. The vote of confidence would then be taken next Tuesday.

A simple majority vote is all that is needed for the vote of confidence to succeed. With the DSP indicating that they will abstain from the vote, the coalition easily has enough deputies ensure success.

The combined ANAP-DYP deputies come to 261. If no-one abstains from the vote this would not be enough and the coalition would need the support of either the Republican People's (CHP), which has 49 seats, or the DSP, who have 75. The Welfare party has 158 seats while the Grand Unity Party (BBP) has seven.

As soon as the Motherpath government receives a vote of confidence, the most pressing issue will be the 1996 fiscal year budget. The temporary budget, which was passed at the end of 1995, will expire in April and so a new budget must be prepared by March 15, at the latest.

The Parliamentary Consultative Commission which convened on Monday urged all parties to determine their members for the Planning and Budget Commission so that the new budget can be passed as soon as possible.

[10] Motherpath timetable

-- March 7: Coalition program will be read out to Parliament, most likely by Yilmaz

-- March 10: Party groups will debate new government's program.

-- March 12: Vote of confidence in the new government.