TRKNWS-L Turkish Daily News (February 5, 1996)

From: TRKNWS-L <trh@aimnet.com>

Turkish News Directory

CONTENTS

TURKISH DAILY NEWS / 5 February 1996

[01] Yilmaz banks on DYP dissenters

TDN Parliament Bureau

ANKARA- Motherland Party (ANAP) leader Mesut Yilmaz, whom President Suleyman Demirel appointed to form the government, is making a bad start since the True Path Party (DYP) leader and caretaker prime minister Tansu Ciller has stolen his trump cards.

Despite their outward optimism, ANAP officials believe Yilmaz has only a slim chance of forming a government. If no surprise development occurs within the week, ANAP officials guess that a new government will only be formed after Yilmaz returns the mandate to the president.

Yilmaz, expected to try first the alternatives that do not include a partnership with the Welfare Party (RP) of Islamist leader Necmettin Erbakan, will depend on the backing of the very DYP he has alienated by refusing to accept Ciller's right to lead a partnership between their parties, popularly dubbed Motherpath.

Yilmaz will find that all the possibilities of a deal with Ciller have been discussed, and rejected before. Ciller had offered formulas which called for coalition under her premiership first. She received negative responses from Yilmaz to her formulas such as the rotational premiership, rotational minority government and deputy premiership with equal powers.

For her part, Ciller has firmly opposed the idea of a compromise prime minister, thus blocking in advance the option Yilmaz wants to sell.

Right after the inconclusive Dec. 24 poll, Ciller proposed holding a fresh election to break the impasse, but could not press the idea over opposition from within her own party beside the others. But she is still reported to be keeping a fresh poll in her sights.

She plans to maneuver Yilmaz, who refused her premiership, into a corner by forcing him to face two difficult alternatives, either form a coalition with the RP or accept another election.

Ciller is reportedly making the supposition that even if an RP-ANAP coalition is formed, it would not last long and a new election would be held within six months at the latest. She then aims to set up an alliance with the MHP through which she hopes to defeat ANAP and thereby cause the ousting of Yilmaz from his leadership.

But to achieve that target, Ciller needs to keep her DYP intact. Yilmaz, assigned the task of forming the government after Erbakan and Ciller failed before him, has tied his hopes to a rebellion the DYP.

ANAP, who has taken care earlier not to close the doors completely to a partnership with Islamist RP as a last resort, is banking on the DYP revolt. In his first evaluation after getting the mandate on Saturday, Yilmaz said his party's doors were open to any DYP deputies who blamed their party leader for the failure of Motherpath. In return, Ciller said any ANAP deputy who displays an "exemplary noble stance" in opposing a partnership with RP would be welcome to the DYP.

As Yilmaz starts his own rounds on Tuesday, he will concentrate on following options: @ Seeing the impossibility of an ANAP-DYP coalition under his own leadership, Yilmaz will either try to persuade Ciller on the premiership of a third person or seek support of a group in the DYP for his minority government.

ANAP officials argue that they can set up a minority government with Bulent Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP), which, they say, can control a near majority with 257 seats provided they can also draw in the Republican People's Party (CHP) of Foreign Minister Deniz Baykal.

But the alliance, even supposing it materializes, will still need the support of some DYP deputies for it to obtain 276 votes which is required to win the confidence vote in the 550-strong Parliament.

However, even sources close to Yilmaz say luring 19 deputies away from the DYP on such short notice would be difficult. ANAP sources also say running such a government with so many loose connections well not be easy.

-Instead of a minority government, ANAP members would try to persuade Ciller to make way for a compromise prime minister, playing on her fears of a split in her party. The adherents of this model say the third person could be from the DYP and suggest former Parliament Speaker Ismet Sezgin as the candidate.

But considering Ciller's opposition to subordinating herself to someone else from her own party, they also propose current speaker Mustafa Kalemli (from ANAP). But the realization of this formula depends on the size of the revolt in the DYP as well as Ciller's stance.

ANAP strategists expect that the DYP deputies who grudge Ciller's blocking the Motherpath to get into action within this week. If the deputies who privately tell of their concerns about a new election turn their discontent into an open rebellion, they will facilitate Yilmaz's task. Otherwise, the ANAP leader, too, will have to return his mandate to the President.

-Materialization of an RP-ANAP coalition seems difficult at the moment. But RP deputies, who have announced that they could enter a coalition only under Erbakan's premiership, are reportedly prepared to agree to a super deputy-premiership with enlarged powers for Yilmaz and the key ministries going to ANAP.

But such a partnership, if it materializes, will have to wait until President Demirel asks Necmettin Erbakan once more to form the government after Yilmaz admits defeat.

[02] Turkey, Uzbekistan plan to build two sugar plants

ANKARA- Turkey's state sugar refineries Turkseker is involved in setting up two sugar refineries in the Central Asian republic of Uzbekistan with the first expected to be operational from mid-1998, Turkish officials said last Friday.

"The first one will cost about $100 million and the second one will be about the same," said an industry Ministry official.

He told Reuters the building cost of the first refinery, which would have a daily beet processing capacity of 3,000 tons, would be shared about equally between Turkey and Uzbekistan.

"Uzbekistan will own the plant. They will pay back Turkey's contribution in terms of sugar," he said. The daily capacity could later be raised up to 7,000 tons. Talks for the second refinery were underway with Uzbek officials and a delegation led by Turkseker general manager Sellahatin Hun was having meetings in Tashkent, he said.

A Turkseker official said Uzbekistan had paid about 80 percent of its contribution to the first project and the construction work, to be carried out by a Turkish contractor, would begin immediately after the remaining 20 percent was paid.

"The construction will take 28 months and all plant equipment has been sent to Uzbekistan," he said.

[03] Seals unite Greece and Turkey over Kardak rocks

By Deniz S=FCtc=FC

Turkish Daily News

IZMIR- To whom do the twin Kardak rocks belong?

No need to ask the chiefs of staff of Turkey and Greece, the two quarrelsome NATO allies which have been looking for an opportunity to release pent-up energy. The governments of the two countries, too, would naturally disagree.

So, the more pertinent question should be who benefited from the recent crisis during which opposing flotillas circling the uninhabitable rocky outcrops came close to war. Again, there is no clear answer. The Athens government definitely did not, after having to swallow its pledge to keep the Greek flag flying there forever. Prime Minister Tansu Ciller of Turkey could not make much political capital out of it either, despite her best efforts, failing to convert it into a tidal wave of popularity to ensure her continuation in office as the nation seeks a government following the inconclusive December poll.

The media of the two countries, engaged in a nationalistic war of their own, did not achieve a circulation blitz as a result of their efforts.

The elite marine commandos or "SAT" teams who confronted each other briefly on opposite rocks in the closing stages of the crisis basked in media publicity, with team members obliging TV crew by clambering up steps in mock assaults, their heads covered with tightly-bound wet bandanas which, although they look good on screen, do not meld well with frigid conditions.

The rubber Zodiac dinghies starred in media coverage, but prohibitive prices precluded any boom in sales. The toy stores, however, were reported to be true winners from the display of machismo, with plastic sets of commandos swept off the shelves even before the crisis was over.

So who won in the end -- besides the curious goats who returned to their peaceful sunning after the company of some strange black-clad men with blackened faces? There is no clear answer so far. But Turkish ecologists, although their expeditionary landing was thwarted, want to make sure that the disputed rocks go to nobody but their true owners -- the sea mammals threatened with extinction.

Ecologists from Izmir, Ankara and Bartin gathered in Bodrum on Friday to make a "green" claim for the rocks. But they had political objectives as well, presenting the "monk seals" as a unifying cause for the people of both countries.

The initial intention was to follow the example of certain Greek and Turkish citizens and also hoist a flag on Kardak.

The intended flag, however, did not have national colors on it, but the likeness of a monk seal to illustrate the green viewpoint about who owns the uninhabited rocks.

"Kardak belongs neither to Greece nor to Turkey. It belongs to the monk seals," was the message the ecologists wanted to proclaim.

Saynur Gelendost, one of the organizers of the action and a member of the local seal-protection committee in Bodrum, said the Kardak rocks were home to monk seals who were in danger of extinction.

When both sides, Greece and Turkey, prohibited the ecologist's approach to the disputed rocks, the greens had to review their invasion plans, deciding to land instead on Kiremit Island off Yalikavak, a village a few kilometers from Bodrum's city center.

"Our aim was not to create another international crisis; we just wanted to pave the way to a peaceful approach to the dispute. That's why we decided to land on Kiremit instead of Kardak., said Savas Emek, from the Izmir-based environmentalist group S.O.S. Akdeniz.

"There are hundreds of islets and rocks similar to Kardak in the Aegean Sea. As they are all uninhabited, they are natural wildlife reserves ideal for monk seals that chose the region for breeding. We want these places to remain as they are," said Emek.

He said the seals, whose survival depends on the existence of such uninhabited places, were unfortunately the real losers of the military confrontation in the Aegean.

Emek stressed the urgent need for protective measures that Greece and Turkey have to take together to provide the Aegean wildlife with a secure and healthy environment.

But understanding ears were not in abundant supply: despite the peaceful nature of "Operation Kiremit," Gelendost was questioned by regional officials afterwards.

[04] Turkish pipeline team completes talks in Washington

By Ugur Akinci

Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- The U.S. administration has confirmed its support for the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Bilsel Alispah, senior aide to caretaker Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, told Turkish journalists at a press conference at the Turkish Embassy on Friday.

Alispah headed the Turkish "pipeline team" in the talks recently completed in Washington with the U.S. State Department, Commerce Department, Energy Department and National Security Council. U.S. congressional staffers, Ex-Im Bank, OPIC (Overseas Private Investment Council), the World Bank, and AIOC-member US oil firms were also involved in the talks. Other members of the Turkish team included Temel Iskit, deputy under secretary for economic affairs at the Turkish Foreign Ministry; Necdet Pamir, TPAO (Turkish Petroleum) deputy director general; and Salih Yilmaz, department chief of the general directorate of the Turkish Treasury.

Alispah sounded very cautious at the press conference, and unwilling to share any details that might jeopardize the sensitive ongoing negotiations concerning the financing and construction of the early and main oil pipelines. He said among the topics that were discussed in Washington were the environmental hazards of using the Turkish straits as a conduit for oil tankers; and approaching the Baku-Soupsa line as a precursor to the Baku-Ceyhan line.

"The U.S. administration reconfirmed the support they are extending to both the Baku-Soupsa early oil and Baku-Ceyhan main oil pipelines," Alispah said. "The U.S. oil firms also share our approach to the realization of the western line."

Alispah said Turkey had asked for help with feasibility studies and engineering from the World Bank. "We agreed on financing of the feasibility and engineering studies. Our contacts will continue in Ankara next week," he said.

Concerning the no-profit-no-loss financing of $239 million that Turkey offers for the Baku-Soupsa line, i.e. the western route, Alispah said the money would be available to AIOC with certain conditions like the participation of Turkish construction firms, through-put guarantees, and an understanding to build the Baku-Ceyhan line in the future.

A senior administration official, talking to the TDN in the background and commenting on the Turkish proposal to finance the western route, said that was a "very shrewd move" since it would increase Turkey's leverage to have a main export line built from Baku to Ceyhan. AIOC will arrive at a final decision on the Baku-Soupsa line by Feb. 27.

Turkish officials said both OPIC and Ex-Im Bank were very receptive to Turkish initiatives. OPIC reportedly offered investment guarantees up to $200 million.

The TDN learned that the U.S. firms Brown & Root and Bechtel, as well as the Italian firm Saipem, were currently maneuvering to win the contract to build the Baku-Ceyhan line. Sarik Tara's ENKA is Bechtel's local partner.

Necdet Pamir of TPAO said the whole idea of pushing for the western route was to demonstrate to all concerned that "a route built to the west would indeed work," and thus prepare the groundwork for the major Baku-Ceyhan line.

Replying to pessimistic speculation in the Turkish press to the effect that Russia was trying to scuttle the Baku-Ceyhan line altogether and downgrade the Georgia line to the status of a mere back-up, Temel Iskit, resorting to a wrestling analogy, said that the Turks at least showed up "on the mat." He acknowledged that the process, by its very nature, would never be a straightforward one and would require constant attention and struggle. Iskit added that there was nothing in all the Turkish efforts that could be construed as a "threat" to Russian interests in the region. On the contrary, Russia would benefit too, he said.