TRKNWS-L Turkish Daily News (February 4, 1996)

From: TRKNWS-L <trh@aimnet.com>

Turkish News Directory

CONTENTS

TURKISH DAILY NEWS / 4 February 1996

[01] White House: Clinton Led Effort to Quell Turkish-Greek Crisis

Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- In what seemed like an effort to reconsolidate President Clinton's leadership credentials in quelling the recent "islet crisis" between Turkey and Greece, White House Deputy Spokesman David Johnson said other "lower officials like [Richard] Holbrooke," Assistant Secretary of State for European and Canadian Affairs, followed Clinton's lead in the eight-hour telephone diplomacy only after the President established the "need" between the parties to solve the problem peacefully.

Answering a Greek journalist's question on Friday at the Foreign Press Center, Johnson said: "[President Clinton's] primary goal was to get [both the Turkish and Greek] leaders to focus on the need to move toward a peaceful solution, to end the confrontation as soon as possible. After that attention has been drawn, lower level officials like Mr. Holbrooke were in a position then to work the governments, and to work out the issues."

Holbrooke, in a National Press Club speech he delivered on January 31, said those phone calls Clinton made "did not remotely resolve the crisis, but they established at the outset that the president was personally involved and engaged, and therefore legitimized everything that was to happen for the next eight hours."

Holbrooke's visit

Johnson also said that on his upcoming visit to Athens, Ankara and Nicosia, Richard Holbrooke was going to address issues going beyond the Kardak crisis. "Our interests go beyond the immediate problem that we helped resolve earlier this week," Johnson said. "We're hoping that we may be able to accomplish a number of bilateral and multilateral objectives with close allies and also have a good discussion of Cyprus issue which we continue to have interest in over a long period of time."

Holbrooke, on the other hand, in his January 31 speech, said that during his upcoming trip he will "focus not on Cyprus, because it's not time yet to launch our Cyprus initiative -- we can't do that yet because of the political situation -- but to focus on trying to reduce tensions in the Aegean."

When reminded of the discrepancy, Johnson's said "I believe if [Holbrooke] is going to those capitals, he is going to have a discussion of the Cyprus issue."

Unconfirmed reports that have reached Washington at this time of writing claim that Greece does not want Holbrooke to visit Athens so soon after the crisis the resolution of which that left Prime Minister Simitis in a difficult position. An AP wire story reported that "Athens is unhappy that the United States has maintained neutrality on the issue, saying this encourages Turkey to press its claims on Greek territory."

"It is official American policy that Greece and Turkey have to solve their differences through negotiations. This position is identical to Turkey's and we do not accept it," is how AP quoted Greek Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos.

Canada as example

When the Greek journalist repeatedly insisted to learn why the US government would not recognize "Greek sovereignty" on what was after all a "Greek island," Johnson stuck to the official US position that the issue of sovereignty was something that could best be resolved only by the Turkish and Greek governments discussing it among themselves and settling the matter peacefully.

Johnson then mentioned the similar territorial disputes among the US and Canada. "We have another close ally, Canada, with which we have disputes over territory which we talk about it.

We discuss it. We avoided asking others to suggest that they should reaffirm our sovereignty over these disputed areas."

US as Hier Necmettin Erbakan, will depend on the backing of the very DYP he has alienated by refusing to accept Ciller's right to lead a partnership between their parties, popularly dubbed Motherpath.

Yilmaz will find that all the possibilities of a deal with Ciller have been discussed, and rejected before. Ciller had offered formulas which called for coalition under her premiership first. She received negative responses from Yilmaz to her formulas such as the rotational premiership, rotational minority government and deputy premiership with equal powers.

For her part, Ciller has firmly opposed the idea of a compromise prime minister, thus blocking in advance the option Yilmaz wants to sell.

Right after the inconclusive Dec. 24 poll, Ciller proposed holding a fresh election to break the impasse, but could not press the idea over opposition from within her own party beside the others. But she is still reported to be keeping a fresh poll in her sights.

She plans to maneuver Yilmaz, who refused her premiership, into a corner by forcing him to face two difficult alternatives, either form a coalition with the RP or accept another election.

Ciller is reportedly making the supposition that even if an RP-ANAP coalition is formed, it would not last long and a new election would be held within six months at the latest. She then aims to set up an alliance with the MHP through which she hopes to defeat ANAP and thereby cause the ousting of Yilmaz from his leadership.

But to achieve that target, Ciller needs to keep her DYP intact. Yilmaz, assigned the task of forming the government after Erbakan and Ciller failed before him, has tied his hopes to a rebellion the DYP.

ANAP, who has taken care earlier not to close the doors completely to a partnership with Islamist RP as a last resort, is banking on the DYP revolt. In his first evaluation after getting the mandate on Saturday, Yilmaz said his party's doors were open to any DYP deputies who blamed their party leader for the failure of Motherpath. In return, Ciller said any ANAP deputy who displays an "exemplary noble stance" in opposing a partnership with RP would be welcome to the DYP.

As Yilmaz starts his own rounds on Tuesday, he will concentrate on following options: @ Seeing the impossibility of an ANAP-DYP coalition under his own leadership, Yilmaz will either try to persuade Ciller on the premiership of a third person or seek support of a group in the DYP for his minority government.

ANAP officials argue that they can set up a minority government with Bulent Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP), which, they say, can control a near majority with 257 seats provided they can also draw in the Republican People's Party (CHP) of Foreign Minister Deniz Baykal.

But the alliance, even supposing it materializes, will still need the support of some DYP deputies for it to obtain 276 votes which is required to win the confidence vote in the 550-strong Parliament.

However, even sources close to Yilmaz say luring 19 deputies away from the DYP on such short notice would be difficult. ANAP sources also say running such a government with so many loose connections well not be easy.

-Instead of a minority government, ANAP members would try to persuade Ciller to make way for a compromise prime minister, playing on her fears of a split in her party. The adherents of this model say the third person could be from the DYP and suggest former Parliament Speaker Ismet Sezgin as the candidate.

But considering Ciller's opposition to subordinating herself to someone else from her own party, they also propose current speaker Mustafa Kalemli (from ANAP). But the realization of this formula depends on the size of the revolt in the DYP as well as Ciller's stance.

ANAP strategists expect that the DYP deputies who grudge Ciller's blocking the Motherpath to get into action within this week. If the deputies who privately tell of their concerns about a new election turn their discontent into an open rebellion, they will facilitate Yilmaz's task. Otherwise, the ANAP leader, too, will have to return his mandate to the President.

-Materialization of an RP-ANAP coalition seems difficult at the moment. But RP deputies, who have announced that they could enter a coalition only under Erbakan's premiership, are reportedly prepared to agree to a super deputy-premiership with enlarged powers for Yilmaz and the key ministries going to ANAP.

But such a partnership, if it materializes, will have to wait until President Demirel asks Necmettin Erbakan once more to form the government after Yilmaz admits defeat.