European Business News (EBN), 97-06-24

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Page last updated Tue, June 24 7:00 PM CET

CONTENTS

[01] Carlton, Granada joint venture wins U.K. digital TV licences

[02] U.S. consumer confidence continues to leap, hitting highest level in 28 years

[03] Eurotunnel warns rejection of debt plan risks bankruptcy

[04] Credit Lyonnais reportedly expects to show a profit jump for the current year

[05] Trichet says France must cut public deficit in 1997

[06] De Silguy hints EMU rules could be bent to allow those missing criteria to join

[07] U.K. names Sedgwick, Legal & General in pension mis-selling scandal

[08] German state data suggest a 1.5% anuual gain for all of western Germany

[09] Delhaize signs accord to develop supermarket chain in Indonesia

[10] Waigel says Eurofighter vital to Germany's defence

[11] Handover Watch: Hong Kong's role as a financial centre for China should compensate for its diminished role as Asia's financial hub

[12] Corporate and Economic Briefs

[13] World News Briefs

[14] Handover Briefs

[01] Carlton, Granada joint venture wins U.K. digital TV licences

The decision follows British Sky Broadcasting Group withdrawal from the British Digital Broadcasting joint venture, which is now jointly owned by Carlton and Granada. As part of the deal BSkyB will receive a one-off compensation payment of £75 million from its former venture partners.

British Sky Broadcasting shares dropped 6.9% lower in heavy selling ahead of the decision by the ITC. BSkyB stock has fallen 33.5 pence to 453 pence by 0858 GMT and is the heaviest traded blue chip on volume of 5.25 million shares.

However traders blamed the stock's continued slide - BSkyB has lost 25% of its market value in the last week - on a combination of factors. Also, fears re-emerged that BSkyB will lose its highly valuable exclusive programme rights to English Premier League football in 2001 when the current four year contract expires. The Premier League and individual clubs such as Manchester United are examining ways to offer pay-per-view services directly to viewers.

Finally, speculation about a linkup involving the U.K.'s two largest cable groups - Cable & Wireless Communications and Telewest Communications - has fanned fears of BSkyB having to face the combined muscle of what would become Europe's largest cable and multi-media operator.

Although a Telewest spokesman categorically denied that merger talks have occurred, analysts note that cable companies are increasingly pursuing a common front to compete against BSkyB and British Telecommunications. Telewest shares have soared on the report.

In fact, Telewest and C&W Communications are planning to launch a common digital platform which will use the same set top box decoder.

As one trader observed 'When they do tie up, that will squeeze Sky.'

[02] U.S. consumer confidence continues to leap, hitting highest level in 28 years

'Latest survey results show consumer confidence continuing to run at historically-high levels,' said Lynn Franco, Associate Director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. 'Despite a slight change in consumers' short-term expectations, consumers continue to be bullish about the economy.'

The Board's consumer confidence index advanced again in June to 129.6 from 127.9 in May. The June index is well over the 28-year high of 127.1 set in May. The May index was revised upward to 127.9.

The present situation index surged by more than 5 points to 157.8 from 152.6 in May. The expectations index declined to 110.7 from 111.4 the pevious month.

The proportion of consumers labelling current business conditions as 'good' increased by 3% to 36%, the Conference Board said. It added that consumers are more positive about current job prospects than they were in May, with nearly 36% of the households saying jobs are 'plentiful.' That's up from 35% in May.

The survey found that 19% of those polled expect business conditions to improve, unchanged from May. Slightly more than 18% expect more jobs during the next six months, roughly the same as the prior month. About 25% of all consumers predict their incomes will rise over the next six months.

The consumer confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, and is conducted monthly for the Conference Board by NFO Research in Greenwich, Connecticut.

[03] Eurotunnel warns rejection of debt plan risks bankruptcy

Ponsolle issued the statement following an extraordinary general shareholders meeting convened to consider the debt plan. As expected, the meeting did not attract enough shareholders to constitute a quorum, and Eurotunnel will hold a second meeting July 10.

Ponsolle said it was 'a high risk bet' for shareholders to hope that Eurotunnel's creditors would agree to further concessions. If, on July 10, a quorum is obtained and the plan isn't approved, he said the board will have to refer the matter back to the France's Tribunal of Commerce.

'The judicial process which would then ensue, the likely state of insolvency, the probability that the banks will exercise their right of substitution, and the complexity of the bi-national judicial and political situation would, I am convinced, have irremediable adverse consequences for the company and for shareholders,' the president said.

Ponsolle's warning of the risk of bankruptcy comes in the face of increased pressure from minority shareholder groups.

Under the debt restructuring plan, Eurotunnel's creditor banks would write down £2 billion of Eurotunnel's junior debt and unpaid interest, and lower interest rates on the remainder in exchange for a large stake in the company.

However, some investor groups are calling for a bigger debt writedown and measures that would preserve their voting rights once current shareholdings are diluted.

Ponsolle reiterated that the debt plan on the table 'is not only the best possible in the circumstances, but also the only one that could have been negotiated.'

[04] Credit Lyonnais reportedly expects to show a profit jump for the current year

La Tribune, citing unnamed sources, said that, given the past few months, the bank is now expecting a strong profit. Jean Peyrelevade, president of Credit Lyonnais, said earlier this year, when announcing 1996 earnings, that he expected earnings to be in the billions, not millions as in recent years.

The state-controlled bank, France's second largest, last year made a profit of only 202 million francs, up from 13 million in 1995, despite having assets of 1.6 trillion francs. It lost 21 billion francs between 1992 and 1994.

A trader at a Paris-based brokerage said that the shares, which are non- voting shares, were up because the newspaper report confirmed that 'Credit Lyonnais' restructuring will have a positive effect on earnings. And, the better the earnings, the easier it will be for the bank to survive the bail- out.'

Separate newspaper reports, increasing the estimated cost of the bail-out for bad loans and asset losses to 170 billion francs, weren't affecting the shares because this has no direct implication for earnings, the trader said.

That figure is up from the government's forecast of 120 billion francs and market expectations for a total cost of 130 billion francs.

'This concerns CDR and the banks involved in the bail-out more than its does Credit Lyonnais. This won't have an impact on Credit Lyonnais,' the Paris-based trader said.

CDR, or Consortium des Realisations, is the company that was set up to sell off about 200 billion francs in Credit Lyonnais assets.

[05] Trichet says France must cut public deficit in 1997

Presenting the Bank of France's annual report to the president and to the National Assembly, Trichet added that government spending could only be reduced via deep structural reforms, which are also needed to increase employment.

Trichet did express confidence that the new Socialist-led French government would continue to reduce the deficit and that France would hit the 3% deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio required under the Maastricht Treaty for participation in European economic and monetary union.

When asked how the Bank of France's policy recommendations were affected by the new government's fiscal and budgetary stance, Trichet noted that the Bank of France report had been prepared before the new government came to power early this month.

Trichet declined to propose any specific deficit reduction measures, but warned against a 'Keynesian' approach by the new government. By that, Trichet was warning against attempting to boost France's economy through additional government spending programmes.

'What you think you will gain from a Keynesian approach is more than offset by a loss in credibility' and a corresponding rise in market interest rates, Trichet said after the press conference at which he presented the report.

Despite that warning, Trichet said he was 'confident France will take the necessary measures to hit the 3% deficit (to GDP) level.'

In noting the recent semi-annual economic outlook by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which estimated France's, Germany's and Italy's deficit-to-GDP ratios at 3.2% in 1997, Trichet said this ratio could 'be spontaneously reduced' to 3.0% by an increase in growth or a reduction in spending.

'I do believe the euro will start on time with France as a part of it,' he said.

[06] De Silguy hints EMU rules could be bent to allow those missing criteria to join

EU Finance Commissioner Yves-Thibault de Silguy was quoted by his spokesman as saying the budget gap rule should not be 'applied brutally.' He said there was 'a little leeway' in interpreting the rules so nations could participate in the Jan. 1, 1999, launch of the euro with deficits exceeding, but close to, the benchmark level of 3% of gross domestic product.

However the spokesman, Patrick Child, said de Silguy warned France had no automatic right of entry into the currency union. The comments came amid mounting indications France's new Socialist government won't cut spending or increase taxes enough to get the deficit down to 3% by the deadline at the end of this year.

After comments by Prime Minister Lionel Jospin and Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, economists now believe the French budget gap will be at least 3.5%. Strauss-Kahn said last week that France should be allowed into the euro bloc if this year's deficit shows a downward trend from the 1996 level of 4.6%.

His German counterpart Theo Waigel has insisted all nations hit the 3% target. His hard line reflects German fears that any softening of the entry criteria will undermine the euro by letting in nations with lax public finances.

Germany and France have been the driving forces behind the EU's push to forge a shared currency. Participation of the EU's two biggest economies is seen as essential if the euro is to achieve its aims of boosting trade within the 15-nation bloc and creating a strong rival to the U.S. dollar.

But recent doubts about the French deficit have provoked speculation that the monetary union could go ahead without France. Child, the EU spokesman, said French entry was not guaranteed. 'There are no pre-selected countries for the monetary union,' he told reporters. 'All countries will be treated in the same way.'

However, he pointed out that the treaty setting out the conditions for the switch to a European currency did include a loophole for nations falling short of the deficit target. The treaty says the deficit can exceed 3% of GDP, if it is judged to be declining 'substantially and continuously' or if the excess is 'exceptional and temporarily.'

However Child said those exemptions must not be applied in a way 'risks the credibility of the euro.'

Child quoted de Silguy as saying he was still confident most EU nations will be in a position to join from day-one.

[07] U.K. names Sedgwick, Legal & General in pension mis-selling scandal

Insurance companies have been criticized by the Treasury for failing to clear up the investigations, following the passing of deadlines set up by the industry's self-regulatory organizations.

The Labour government Treasury minister named the two pension provider companies in the House of Commons as part of a move to force companies to act more swiftly to rectify the situation. She accused them of 'failing to understand the government's determination to see the matter resolved speedily.'

A total of 24 U.K. insurance companies are currently reviewing the sales of up to 500,000 defined contribution personal pension contracts sold to members of defined benefit company pension plans during the 1980s and early 1990s.

The personal pensions are likely to offer lower benefits to pension savers than the pension funds to which such savers previously contributed.

The new Labour government's concern about the progress of clear-up came to a head when Liddell summoned 24 pension companies to the Treasury on May 14 to explain what progress had been made. She set a deadline of July 3 for them to provide the information. Liddell also threatened to take further action if she's unhappy with progress.

[08] German state data suggest a 1.5% anuual gain for all of western Germany

Consumer prices in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia rose 0.2% in June from May and were up 1.9% from June 1996, the state statistics office said.

That's slightly higher than economists had expected.

Meanwhile consumer prices in the western German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg rose 0.2% in June from May and were up 1.4% from June 1996, the state statistics office reported.

The month-on-month increase is slightly higher than expected, while the yearly increase is slightly lower. Baden-Wuerttemberg is the second of the four largest western German states to report June consumer prices. On Monday, Bavaria reported the cost of living rose 0.2% in June from May, and rose 1.6% from the same month last year.

A spokesman at the statistics office in Hesse said it would most likely release the data on Wednesday. Thereafter, a preliminary inflation rate for the whole of western Germany will be published by the Federal Statistic Office based on the four states' reports.

[09] Delhaize signs accord to develop supermarket chain in Indonesia

Under the terms of the accord, the Belgian retailer will provide technical assistance and allow Salim Group to use Delhaize's logo under a trademark license agreement. Salim Group owns 10 supermarkets, with seven in Jakarta, two in Bandung and one in Surabaya.

Salim Group is the largest privately controlled business group in Indonesia, according to Delhaize. It employs some 200,000 people worldwide and had 1996 sales of $15 billion.

The agreement with Salim marks Delhaize's second Asian expansion project. Yesterday, it said it will invest about $5.4 million to develop a 'large supermarket chain' in Thailand. The venture, with the Mall Group and Saha Group of Thailand, will begin in Bangkok and is to be called Bel-Thai Supermarket Co.

The company has made Asian expansion a priority. Delhaize said it would invest 14 billion Belgian francs throughout the group during 1997. It plans to open two new supermarkets in Belgium, while Food Lion plans to open 55 in the U.S.

[10] Waigel says Eurofighter vital to Germany's defence

Waigel made no comment on talks earlier with Daimler-Benz Aerospace, the German partner in the four-country combat jet project, on paying for the 180 Eurofighters Bonn wants to buy. But, asked whether Germany would buy the multi-role jet, he answered: 'I believe so, yes.'

Earlier, Germany's main opposition Social Democratic Party called on the German government to pull out of the European project to build military combat planes, known as the Eurofighter.

Finance Minister Theo Waigel must inform DASA, the aerospace division of Daimler-Benz, 'clearly stating that the Eurofighter can't be bought,' for lack of funds, SPD parliamentary group vice-chairman Ingrid Matthaeus-Maier said in today's edition of the daily Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung.

Germany intends to purchase 180 planes at a unit cost of around 125 million Deutsche marks ($73.5 million) per plane. The planes have been developed jointly by private-sector contractors in Germany, the U.K., Italy and Spain.

Defence minister Volker Ruehe and finance minister Waigel are set to discuss the Eurofighter and the defence ministry budget on June 26. Widespread speculation in the German media suggests that Ruehe could be asked to slash costs by reducing the number of naval and army troops. A spokesman for the defence ministry said that Ruehe has ruled out such a possibility.

[11] Handover Watch: Hong Kong's role as a financial centre for China should compensate for its diminished role as Asia's financial hub

Gary Coull, chairman of Credit Lyonnais Securities (Asia), also said he expects the biggest post-handover threat to Hong Kong after July 1 is not from Beijing, but from factions within Hong Kong. 'There will be changes ahead, that may make it more difficult to live here,' he said. Those changes 'may be in the administration of justice, or political, social or corruption concerns.'

Hong Kong reverts to Chinese rule in less than a week's time after more than 150 years as a British colony. But Coull played down fears China would govern with a strong hand, adding it was 'unlikely' senior Beijing officials would tell future leader Tung Chee-hwa what to do on a daily basis.

'The day-to-day interference is more likely to come from the factions that are in Hong Kong,' he said. Out of the need to appease people and balance off factions and find consensus, 'a less efficient form of government' might emerge, he added.

These concerns, combined with the astronomically high price of housing and office space in Hong Kong, might make it easier to recruit people to go to Singapore or Thailand as an international financial base for the region, he said.

Coull also said it was 'entirely possible' a split could develop after July 1 between factions of a loose pro-China alliance comprising the business community, leftists and Chinese patriots. Tung and the civil service had big jobs ahead, he said.

'Things are going to happen which are a compromise between Hong Kong as a British colony and Hong Kong as part of China. There's a great influence coming from the north,' he said, adding that the incoming government faced a hard job of bridging the gap between how China operated and how Hong Kong had operated in the past.

Coull predicted Hong Kong would become less important as a regional financial centre and more important as a Chinese financial centre. He said China had about 350,000 enterprises with varying degrees of autonomy which all needed money. About 10% of them would probably come to market over the next decade with stock offerings, many in Hong Kong because of the territory's investor base and superior regulatory environment, he said.

'The amounts of money that these companies need are running into the hundreds and hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars,' Coull said.

[12] Corporate and Economic Briefs

Bernard Arnault, the controversial head of luxury goods and drinks group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, continues to buy shares in Grand Metropolitan, which seeks to complete a £25 billion ($40 billion) merger with Guinness. Arnault paid an additional £1.47 million for 250,000 more GrandMet shares, boosting his company's stake in GrandMet to 6.3%, according to documents released by the London Stock Exchange. Confusion surrounds the move by Arnault, who has been notably unhappy since Guinness and GrandMet announced the massive merger last month.

German software developer SAP, whose contracts with multinational companies have pushed up its share price 10% in the last five trading days, still has potential to climb another 10 to 20% in the next two to three quarters, analysts said. 'If business goes well and increases they way they expect, there should be no problem for the stock to go further,' said Hans- Peter Wodniok at Credit Lyonnais in Frankfurt. SAP shares closed bourse trading on Monday at 348 marks, up two marks from the end of the previous week, and up 29.70 marks from June 17.

Swiss Finance Minister and Federal Councillor Kaspar Villiger said that several factors such as inflation and interest rates as well as the Swiss franc's exchange rate were working in favour of an economic recovery in Switzerland. 'Our economy is stagnating, but on a very high level, and a it seems to be improving slowly but surely,' Villiger said in his speech to a business function. Villiger said the Swiss economy was actually stronger than publicly perceived. Unemployment was rather low if compared with the international environment, and interest rates as well as the inflation 'were almost historically favourable,' Villiger added. Nigeria, one of the world's major oil producers, will resort to emergency imports of petroleum to deal with a fuel shortage caused by its rotting refineries. The military ruler, Gen. Sani Abacha, announced the drastic move night as public anger toward his government for the month-old fuel crunch increased.

Thyssen Stahl said it plans to spin off its Stahl Ruhrort and Walzdraht Hochfeld units to U.K.-based ISPAT-International. Thyssen Stahl is the steel-making unit of Thyssen. Thyssen Stahl said it had reached an ''agreement in principle'' for the British steelmaker to acquire the units, pending approval by the European Union Commission. No financial details of the transaction were disclosed.

Shares in First Leisure Corporation slipped 5.2% in early trading after the company said current trading in the second half was weaker than expected. In a statement, Chairman Michael Grade said: 'Trading in the first few weeks of the second half has been slightly short of expectations, but this must be judged in the context of some good weather in May, which does not help our indoor business.' The comment came amid the group's first half results statement.

[13] World News Briefs

Flooding caused by heavy rains in northwestern Iran has killed two people and caused damage worth $20 million, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported. Fields and orchards were damaged and 800 livestock perished in the floods over the past few days in five towns of Ardabil province, the official news agency said. It quoted Ardabil's governor, Mahmud Ahmadi- Nezhad, as saying that roads, bridges and water supplies also were destroyed by the floods.

With efforts under way to find a country to try Pol Pot, government officials expressed fears that the notorious Khmer Rouge leader might be assassinated if he is brought to Phnom Penh. Cambodia's polarized coalition government and other countries are looking for a way to transfer Pol Pot from the custody of Khmer Rouge guerrillas who rebelled against him to a place where he can be tried for crimes against humanity.

A U.N. court has began to try its most senior suspect in custody - a Bosnian Croat general accused of leading a rampage that killed hundreds of Muslims and drove man more from their homes. The trial of Gen. Tihomir Blaskic is only the third before the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal. Set up in 1993 by the U.N. Security Council, it has indicted 75 suspects but has just eight in custody.

[14] Handover Briefs

Hong Kong legislators approved a controversial new sedition law as they raced to clear their desks before China takes over in one week. Outgoing Governor Chris Patten bid farewell to his Cabinet and launched another angry attack on China's concept of democracy, saying it was aimed at excluding democracy advocates from the legislature. The new sedition law, introduced by the colonial government, broadens the list of offenses against the state but stipulates that they are offences only if violence is involved.

Next week's handover is in the world spotlight, but street corner gossip in the territory was running to a gruesome find by police in Hong Kong's Kowloon district. The South China Morning Post said authorities discovered the body of a man preserved and kept at home for the past three years by his widow. Au King had cleaned her husband's body and changed its clothes daily since his death in October 1994 and told her children she would kill herself if they told police, the newspaper said. They obeyed her until Monday, when police were called. Mrs. Au was taken to a hospital for observation, the newspaper said.

Hong Kong newspaper readers were urged to join a giant karaoke sing-along planned for July 1, the first day of Chinese rule. Organizers hope the event will set a world record. At least two newspapers carried advertisements with the words to seven songs and readers were urged to 'please do your part.' Among the song titles: 'Pearl of the Orient,' 'Tomorrow Will Be a Better Day' and 'China Dream.'

Quote of the Day: 'Journalists will still have to face all kinds of pressures, but we have the legal framework and the political support, both here and in Beijing, to defend our future press freedom.' - Tsang Tak-sing, editor of one of Hong Kong's Beijing-funded newspapers, explaining why he doesn't expect Hong Kong's feisty media to become a mouthpiece for Beijing.

The legislature China has set up to replace Hong Kong's elected one isn't happy about a plan by outgoing democratic lawmakers to deliver a valedictory manifesto from the balcony of the legislative building after the territory reverts to China at midnight Monday. The issue is still being negotiated with the incoming government, but democrats are suggesting they might defy any ban on entering the building after the switchover.

Hong Kong legislators approved a controversial new sedition law as they raced to clear their desks before China takes over in one week. Outgoing Governor Chris Patten bid farewell to his Cabinet and launched another angry attack on China's concept of democracy, saying it was aimed at excluding democracy advocates from the legislature. The new sedition law, introduced by the colonial government, broadens the list of offenses against the state but stipulates that they are offenses only if violence is involved. Hong Kong newspaper readers were urged to join a giant karaoke sing-along planned for July 1, the first day of Chinese rule. Organizers hope the event will set a world record. At least two newspapers carried advertisements with the words to seven songs and readers were urged to 'please do your part.' Among the song titles: 'Pearl of the Orient,' 'Tomorrow Will Be a Better Day' and 'China Dream.'

Singapore's senior minister, Lee Kuan Yew, came to town with a mixed message about the territory's future. He said the framework for the handover is a 'tour de force,' but that 'bad blood' created with the political reforms pushed by Hong Kong Governor Chris Patten will make things difficult for the territory. It was announced that Chinese President Jiang Zemin will meet with British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Hong Kong before ceremonies June 30 returning the British colony to Chinese control, according to the official news agency Xinhua. Several organizations of Hong Kong factory owners said they might ask the incoming government to review several proposed bills that they consider to have been rushed through the legislature. The new rules will do things like offer worker age protection measures, but will damp competitiveness in Hong Kong. Hong Kong's retail sales increased an annualized 9.2% in value and 4.9% in real terms to HK$18.37 billion in April from the year-earlier month, the government said.

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