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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 180, 01-09-21

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 5, No. 180, 21 September 2001


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ANOTHER NEW POLITICAL PARTY FOUNDED IN ARMENIA
  • [02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY ACCUSES UKRAINE OF 'ANTI-ARMENIAN PROPAGANDA'
  • [03] SPANISH CONTENDER AGAIN QUITS ARMENIAN ENERGY NETWORKS TENDER
  • [04] EDITORS DEPLORE GOVERNMENT PRESSURE ON AZERBAIJANI MEDIA
  • [05] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA 'CLOSER' TO REACHING AGREEMENT ON GAS PIPELINE
  • [06] FORMER GEORGIAN MINISTER REGISTERS TO CONTEND BY-ELECTION IN HIS FORMER CONSTITUENCY
  • [07] PROTEST LEADER ARRESTED IN SOUTHERN KAZAKHSTAN
  • [08] IMF DELEGATION VISITS KYRGYZSTAN
  • [09] RUSSIAN MILITARY OFFICIALS INSPECT TAJIK-AFGHAN BORDER...
  • [10] ...WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSED TO AFGHAN FUGITIVES
  • [11] TAJIK, UZBEK PRESIDENTS CONFER

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [12] SERBIAN LEADER CALLS FOR 'RADICALLY REFORMED' STATE WITH MONTENEGRO
  • [13] MONTENEGRIN LEADER: STILL CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE WITH SERBIA
  • [14] SERBIA BLOCKS EX-OFFICIALS' BANK ACCOUNTS
  • [15] SERBIA JOINING MACEDONIA IN MANIPULATING TERM 'TERRORIST'?
  • [16] MACEDONIA DETAINS EIGHT IN KILLING OF BRITISH SOLDIER
  • [17] PETRITSCH: NO TERRORIST THREAT IN BOSNIA
  • [18] BOSNIAN POLITICIAN CALLS IT QUITS
  • [19] CROATIA TO TRY MORE THAN 1,500 FOR WAR CRIMES
  • [20] INTERNATIONAL UNIONS CALL ON CROATIAN GOVERNMENT TO RETHINK POLICY TOWARD WORLD BANK
  • [21] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT TO HELP RESITA STEEL COMPANY
  • [22] EXTREMIST PARTY WANTS TO ABOLISH COUNCIL ON SECURITATE ARCHIVES
  • [23] PACE: THE STABILITY PACT LACKS EFFICIENCY
  • [24] OSCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEFUSING TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICT
  • [25] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT NAMES RUNNING MATE
  • [26] NATO EXERCISES IN BULGARIA CONCLUDE
  • [27] BULGARIAN FINANCE MINISTER EXPECTS IMF AGREEMENT IN COMING MONTHS

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [28] SOLIDARITY-AFFILIATED PARTIES FACE POLITICAL DEMISE

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ANOTHER NEW POLITICAL PARTY FOUNDED IN ARMENIA

    Deputy parliament speaker Gagik Aslanian, together with five other parliament deputies who also quit the People's Democratic Party two months ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 July 2001), on 20 September held the founding conference of a new political party, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The party, named the People's Democratic Party (ZhDK), will adhere to a "centrist" and "statist" line, Aslanian told journalists. "We want to serve as a bridge between the people and the authorities," he said. LF

    [02] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY ACCUSES UKRAINE OF 'ANTI-ARMENIAN PROPAGANDA'

    Hovannes Hovannesian, who heads Armenia's delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), said on 19 September that the Armenian delegation will support Georgia, but not Ukraine during a debate scheduled for the PACE autumn session on those two countries' compliance with their commitments to the Council of Europe, according to Mediamax, as cited by Groong. He said the reason for this differentiated approach is that Ukrainian officials have recently been "conducting anti-Armenian propaganda in a number of international organizations." LF

    [03] SPANISH CONTENDER AGAIN QUITS ARMENIAN ENERGY NETWORKS TENDER

    A spokesman for the Spanish power utility Union Fenosa told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 20 September that the company has decided against participating in the repeat tender for the privatization of four Armenian energy distribution networks. He rejected as untrue press reports that Union Fenosa would submit a joint bid for one or more of the networks together with the Gazprom subsidiary ITERA. The deadline for submitting preliminary applications for the tender is 21 September. The Armenian government's first attempt to privatize the four networks ended in failure in April when none of the four short-listed companies, which included Union Fenosa, submitted a final bid (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 April 2001). On 19 September, an appeal signed by 48 parliament deputies was submitted to the Constitutional Court asking that body to rule that the revised legislation on the privatization of the four companies that was passed by parliament in late July (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 July 2001) is unconstitutional, Noyan Tapan reported. LF

    [04] EDITORS DEPLORE GOVERNMENT PRESSURE ON AZERBAIJANI MEDIA

    Meeting in Baku on 20 September, members of the editors' union Yeni Nesil expressed concern at the recent increase in government harassment of the media, and decided to establish a five-person commission to investigate the circumstances of the forced closure of several newspapers and the arrest of three journalists, union Chairman Arif Aliev told Turan. Aliev said that if such selective harassment continues, editors may decide to publish a common newspaper. LF

    [05] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA 'CLOSER' TO REACHING AGREEMENT ON GAS PIPELINE

    Azerbaijani and Georgian government representatives came closer during talks in London last week to resolving their disagreements over transit tariffs for the planned export gas pipeline from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey, according to Reuters on 19 September, as cited by Groong. Georgian State Oil Company Chairman Giorgi Chanturia said the London talks addressed the possibility that Georgia might receive part of the tariffs in cash and part in the form of gas at a fixed price. He said a further round of talks will be held next week in Baku, and expressed the hope that Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze would travel to the Azerbaijani capital to sign the final transit agreement before the end of this month. The signing ceremony was originally scheduled for late July but was cancelled at the last minute because of the tariff disagreement. LF

    [06] FORMER GEORGIAN MINISTER REGISTERS TO CONTEND BY-ELECTION IN HIS FORMER CONSTITUENCY

    On 21 September, the deadline for registration, Georgia's Central Election Commission registered former Justice Minister Mikhail Saakashvili as the 12th candidate to contest the 21 October by-election in the Tbilisi district of Vake, Caucasus Press reported. Saakashvili had represented that district prior to his appointment as minister in October 2000. On 20 September, President Shevardnadze accepted the letter of resignation that Saakashvili submitted the previous day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 September 2001). LF

    [07] PROTEST LEADER ARRESTED IN SOUTHERN KAZAKHSTAN

    Ulmeken Saidova, one of the leaders of the Adilet movement, has been arrested in South Kazakhstan Oblast on fraud charges, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 20 September, quoting the editor of a local newspaper. Saidova organized a protest action outside the Kazakh parliament building in Astana earlier this year by dozens of women from southern Kazakhstan who demanded that they be paid child allowances dating back to 1996 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 January and 18 and 19 April 2001). LF

    [08] IMF DELEGATION VISITS KYRGYZSTAN

    An IMF delegation headed by Tapio Savolainen met in Bishkek on 19 September with Kyrgyz Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev and Finance Ministry officials to discuss a planned new three-year cooperation program under which Kyrgyzstan stands to receive $105 million, and also unspecified aspects of the draft budget for 2002, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. It is not clear whether the release of the final $35 million tranche earmarked under the previous loan program was also discussed. The fund declined to release that tranche as scheduled in July after the Kyrgyz government cut income tax rates without first consulting the fund (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 July 2001). LF

    [09] RUSSIAN MILITARY OFFICIALS INSPECT TAJIK-AFGHAN BORDER...

    Russian Security Council Secretary Vladimir Rushailo flew to southern Tajikistan on 20 September, accompanied by Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov, Defense Minister Colonel General Sherali Khairulloev, and Russian Border Guards Chief of Staff Colonel General Nikolai Reznichenko, to inspect the Russian forces stationed there, Interfax reported. During that tour of inspection, Rakhmonov instructed the Russian troops to "watch the situation carefully." He said he does not consider it expedient at this juncture to increase the Russian military presence on the border. LF

    [10] ...WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSED TO AFGHAN FUGITIVES

    Rakhmonov also stated explicitly on 20 September that Tajikistan will not open its borders to any Afghan displaced persons fleeing anticipated retaliatory strikes on Afghan targets by the U.S., "Die Welt" reported. Tajikistan had already made clear in January of this year that it would not allow the Afghan fugitives already encamped on the border to enter Tajikistan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 and 24 January 2001). LF

    [11] TAJIK, UZBEK PRESIDENTS CONFER

    On 19 September, President Rakhmonov discussed by telephone with his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov cooperation between their countries' police and armed forces in the field of countering regional terrorism, Interfax reported on 20 September. Also on 20 September, a Moscow-based CIS air defense official denied that U.S. aircraft are already en route for Tajikistan, or that the U.S. has requested overflight permission from Tajikistan, Interfax reported. He explained that the only Tajik airport equipped for such aircraft is in Dushanbe and that it cannot handle a large number of U.S. aircraft in addition to the present level of civilian and Russian military air traffic. Tajik Foreign Ministry spokesman Igor Sattarov similarly told Interfax on 20 September that the Tajik government is not holding talks with Washington on the deployment in Tajikistan of either U.S. troops or aircraft. Uzbek officials including Karimov's spokesman, Rustam Djumaev, on 20 September likewise denied U.S. media reports that U.S. military aircraft have already arrived in that country, or that Uzbekistan has discussed with the U.S. the possibility of making its territory or airspace available for retaliatory strikes, Russian agencies reported. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [12] SERBIAN LEADER CALLS FOR 'RADICALLY REFORMED' STATE WITH MONTENEGRO

    Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic said at RFE/RL's headquarters in Prague on 21 September that he envisions a future Yugoslav state that will consist of a loose confederation between Serbia and Montenegro. The two republics will be jointly represented in international affairs. He noted that the future of Belgrade-Podgorica relations is the most important issue in Montenegro, while in Serbia economic problems and crime top the agenda. PM

    [13] MONTENEGRIN LEADER: STILL CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE WITH SERBIA

    Speaking at a press conference in Podgorica on 20 September, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic denied unspecified reports that his Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is backing away from its previous insistence on a referendum on independence because it cannot expect to win, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 September 2001). He called for setting up a new "concentrated" coalition government of all parties in the legislature to provide a broad democratic basis for a referendum to be held "by next spring." Djukanovic added that the latest proposal for Belgrade-Podgorica talks by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica constitutes a "possible basis for an agreement." Djukanovic also told the press conference that Kostunica proposed new talks to head off negotiations between Djindjic and Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic. Kostunica told "Politika" -- which often acts as his mouthpiece - - of 21 September that he wants a "modern federal state." "Modern" was a favorite buzzword of former President Slobodan Milosevic during his rise to power in the second half of the 1980s. PM

    [14] SERBIA BLOCKS EX-OFFICIALS' BANK ACCOUNTS

    Aleksandar Radovic, who heads the government's committee investigating financial corruption and crime, said in Belgrade on 21 September that the domestic bank accounts of several top Milosevic-era officials have been blocked, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Those affected include former Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic. Some officials, however, also have fat bank deposits abroad. Former Jugopetrol oil company Director Dragan Tomic has about $200,000 in a Canadian bank account, while former Health Minister Milovan Bojic has $400,000 in a Swiss bank, Radovic added. PM

    [15] SERBIA JOINING MACEDONIA IN MANIPULATING TERM 'TERRORIST'?

    Shortly after U.S. envoy James Pardew warned the Macedonian leadership not to misuse the term "terrorist" for their own domestic political advantage (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 September 2001), Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Nebojsa Covic said in Bujanovac that "terrorists" are prepared to attack Belgrade, "Danas" reported on 21 September. He said that he does not want to use the word "extremists" but rather "terrorists" to describe those who would cross the borders between Kosova, Serbia, and Macedonia to "destabilize the region." It is not clear what evidence he has to suggest a possible attack on the Serbian capital. PM

    [16] MACEDONIA DETAINS EIGHT IN KILLING OF BRITISH SOLDIER

    Almost one month after teenagers killed British sapper Ian Collins with a concrete block, the Macedonian authorities have arrested eight persons in the case, AP reported from Skopje on 21 September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 and 28 August 2001). No details are available, except that four of the eight are under 18. PM

    [17] PETRITSCH: NO TERRORIST THREAT IN BOSNIA

    Wolfgang Petritsch, the international community's high representative in Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 20 September that unspecified media reports about an international Islamic terrorist threat from Bosnia are unfounded, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He told the Bosnian Serb "Nezavisne novine" of 21 September that there are no grounds for foreign concerns about such a threat, adding that all authorities in Bosnia must work together and effectively to make sure that this remains the case. He stressed that Bosnia must stand unreservedly "in solidarity with the U.S. and its people." The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" noted that the greatest solidarity with the U.S. in the Balkans has been from the "Muslim" Albanians -- 10,000 of whom held a pro-U.S. march in Prishtina -- while some "Christian" Serbs and Macedonians have shown unabashed glee over America's plight (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 September 2001). The article noted that the Albanian national movement is secular in nature, and that there has been no "Islamic radicalization" in Bosnia or among the region's Albanians. PM

    [18] BOSNIAN POLITICIAN CALLS IT QUITS

    Veteran Bosnian political leader Haris Silajdzic has decided to withdraw from politics and the leadership of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, "Oslobodjenje" reported on 21 September. His successor as party leader is Safet Halilovic. Silajdzic said that there are several reasons for his decision, some of which are personal. He did not elaborate. Some observers have suggested that he has health problems, while others point out that he has increasingly found himself on the political sidelines in recent months. PM

    [19] CROATIA TO TRY MORE THAN 1,500 FOR WAR CRIMES

    Croatian police have questioned former Interior Minister Ivan Vekic in connection with the 1991 murder of Osijek police chief Josip Reihl-Kir, "Jutarnji list" reported on 21 September. The previous day, Justice Minister Stjepan Ivanisevic said that some 1,522 people will be charged with war crimes, dpa reported. PM

    [20] INTERNATIONAL UNIONS CALL ON CROATIAN GOVERNMENT TO RETHINK POLICY TOWARD WORLD BANK

    Bill Jordan of the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) said in Zagreb on 20 September that the government of Prime Minister Ivica Racan should carefully review its relations with the IMF and World Bank, dpa reported. The Racan government is cutting back on social programs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 September 2001). PM

    [21] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT TO HELP RESITA STEEL COMPANY

    At its 19 September meeting, the Romanian cabinet decided to grant an 18 billion lei ($600,000) emergency loan for paying wage arrears at the Resita steel-producer CSR, Mediafax reported. Privatization Minister Ovidiu Musetescu said the company's creditors have agreed to disperse the money in installments, with the first payments going to workers who have accepted layoffs. The payments are conditioned on ending ongoing trade union protests. The premier's adviser, Eugen Dijmarescu, who held talks in the United States with majority stakeholder Noble Ventures, said the owners would like to renegotiate an earlier for paying the company's debts. Meanwhile on 19 September, CSR employees continued their protest actions by blocking a road in the nearby city of Caransebes. Some 250 workers are currently on a hunger strike. ZsM

    [22] EXTREMIST PARTY WANTS TO ABOLISH COUNCIL ON SECURITATE ARCHIVES

    The extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM) on 19 September submitted to parliament a draft law abolishing the Law on access to Securitate files, Romanian media reported. The PRM wants to replace the law with a new one that grants access only to personal files, while abolishing the National Council for the Study of the Securitate Archives (CNSAS). PRM Deputy Mariana Buruiana-Aprodu said the CNSAS, which was also set up to examine and publish personal files of dignitaries, is "a privileged, parasitic structure" that has breached national security. The press has accused several PRM members of having worked for the former Romanian secret police, the Securitate. ZsM

    [23] PACE: THE STABILITY PACT LACKS EFFICIENCY

    OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Chairman Adrian Severin on 20 September said in a press conference in Bucharest that the Southeast European Stability Pact's activities thus far have "lacked efficiency," Mediafax reported. He argued that member states are interested in attracting funds for themselves instead of initiating regional projects, but the EU does not support local projects. Severin added that the pact has failed to "mobilize donors, and private investors," mainly due to an unclear legal, political, and economic framework and lack of legal stimuli for international donors. He called for organizing an international conference on "security and stability" in the region in order to reconfirm guarantees on borders, independence, and integrity of countries from Southeastern Europe. ZsM

    [24] OSCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEFUSING TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICT

    During his 20 September meeting with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin, OSCE mission chief William Hill said the OSCE continues to support Moldovan efforts to defuse the Transdniester conflict, Flux reported. Hill is to submit a report to the U.S. Congress on the Transdniester situation and the evacuation of Russian armaments from the region. Voronin reiterated his position to introduce a single economic and customs space throughout the country, including the Transdniester. He said Tiraspol leader Igor Smirnov's decision to cancel their last two meetings and his opposition to introducing the new customs seals are motivated by the upcoming presidential elections in the breakaway region. ZsM

    [25] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT NAMES RUNNING MATE

    Petar Stoyanov has named Neli Kutskova, a Sofia District court judge, as his vice presidential candidate, BTA reported on 21 September. Stoyanov said he chose Kutskova for her "professionalism, frankness, honesty, and openness," and that they share a "similar set of values." Kutskova said at a press conference in Sofia that she was "flattered" by Stoyanov's offer and said that the two "have similar mindsets." She said that if the team is elected to office in the 11 November election, she will focus her efforts on fighting corruption. Prior to Stoyanov's announcement, two officials from the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union said they will nominate the current vice president, Todor Kavaldjiev, if he is not retained by Stoyanov as vice president. PB

    [26] NATO EXERCISES IN BULGARIA CONCLUDE

    President Stoyanov said on 20 September in marking the end of NATO military maneuvers that the exercises created a new solidarity among the militaries of NATO members and applicant countries, BTA reported. Stoyanov, speaking at the Graf Ignatievo air base in southern Bulgaria, said the maneuvers also helped the countries seeking NATO membership to harmonize the criteria needed for accession. He added that Cooperative Key 2001 served as a "clear sign" to terrorists that they will face serious force from NATO and Eastern European countries. Graf Ignatievo was recently renovated to comply with NATO standards. PB

    [27] BULGARIAN FINANCE MINISTER EXPECTS IMF AGREEMENT IN COMING MONTHS

    Milen Velchev said in Sofia on 21 September that Bulgaria will sign an agreement with the IMF by the end of 2001, BTA reported. Velchev made his comments after a second meeting with Jerald Schiff, the IMF mission leader in Bulgaria. Schiff said the IMF does not agree with the Bulgarian government's plan to increase the minimum monthly wage because it will increase government spending amid high unemployment. Velchev said the proposed wage increase was needed to improve the living standard of many Bulgarians and said the proposal will not derail negotiations with the IMF. PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [28] SOLIDARITY-AFFILIATED PARTIES FACE POLITICAL DEMISE

    By Jan Maksymiuk

    The last few months have been extremely upsetting for Poland's Solidarity Electoral Action of the Right (AWSP). The AWSP is an election coalition of three parties: the Solidarity Electoral Action Social Movement, the Christian National Union, and the Polish Party of Christian Democrats. Therefore, under Poland's election law, it needs to obtain at least 8 percent of the vote in the 23 September general elections in order to win parliamentary representation.

    However, most preelection surveys have predicted that support for the AWSP is just below the 8 percent threshold. This week, the AWSP charged the left- wing election coalition of the Democratic Left Alliance and the Labor Union (SLD-UP) with "unparalleled manipulation of election polls." The AWSP stressed that the statistical error in public opinion surveys is usually 3 percent and urged its supporters not to lose heart in the run-up to 23 September.

    The AWSP is what remains of the Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS), a bloc of some 30 various right-wing groups that won the 1997 parliamentary election and provided principal political backing to Jerzy Buzek's government in the following years. The AWS remained relatively stable until last year's presidential election, in which AWS leader Marian Krzaklewski lost heavily not only to the extremely popular post-communist Aleksander Kwasniewski but also to liberal independent Andrzej Olechowski, who subsequently launched the Civic Platform (PO) group. Following Krzaklewski's election defeat, the AWS began to crumble and split.

    Some AWS defectors, led by Sejm speaker Maciej Plazynski and Conservative Peasant Union leader Jan Maria Rokita, jumped on Olechowski's election bandwagon. Others joined the Law and Justice (PiS) group that was set up this year by former Justice Minister Lech Kaczynski and his brother Jaroslaw, who were close associates of then-President Lech Walesa in the early 1990s. Polls suggest that both the PO and the PiS will clear the 5 percent voting threshold required for an election committee of a single party or a group of citizens to obtain parliamentary mandates.

    What makes the AWSP so unpopular among Polish voters is primarily the four- year record of Buzek's cabinet, under which unemployment soared to 16 percent. Most unemployed Poles have found themselves in glaring poverty, while many of those with jobs have been continuing an exhausting struggle to earn their livelihood.

    The AWS-led cabinet undertook four bold reforms -- in the health care and pension systems as well as in administration and education. However, all of them were bungled in execution and have provoked wide social discontent.

    The health care system is believed to be heavily bureaucratized, with too little money spent on looking after patients. The state-run insurer PZU still has no working computer system to make efficient transfers of money from individual accounts to social security funds. Schoolchildren and teachers remain unsure of what exams should be taken at schools next summer, especially as the SLD-UP is threatening to revoke Buzek's education reform. And because of apparently too small sums transferred from the central budget to local self-governments, many in Poland resent even the most successful of the four reforms -- the administrative one, which vested local authorities with greater decision-making powers than they had before.

    While Poland's socioeconomic woes seem to be the most important reason for the mass disappointment with Buzek's government in particular and the Solidarity-affiliated political camp in general, they are in no way the only one.

    Buzek, though widely believed to be a honest person, has been seen as a weak leader. For more than three years, his cabinet was actually run by Krzaklewski. Krzaklewski, in his double capacity as Solidarity trade union boss and AWS parliamentary caucus leader, was a behind-the-scenes operator, molding the government's policies and utilizing interfactional animosities to achieve his personal goals. Such a complicated and unclear power structure gave rise to many rifts within the Solidarity bloc and eventually forced the centrist Freedom Union (UW) to quit the ruling coalition in mid- 2000.

    There were also many allegations of corruption among top government officials. Buzek has been constrained to fire four ministers over corruption charges in the past three months. Solidarity, which solemnly pledged four years ago to cleanse politics of corruption, has been deeply hit by corruption scandals itself.

    Most polls have also predicted that another major Solidarity-rooted force, the UW, will not be able to win 5 percent of the vote and remain in the parliament. This may appear surprising, particularly since the UW is believed to advocate the interests of Poland's middle class, the group for which the country's post-communist transformations were doubtless a success story. This socioeconomic class, according to polls, is well capable of producing two-digit election support for its political representatives.

    But the UW apparently made a grave mistake at its congress in December 2000, when it opposed a leadership change. Instead of promoting younger and more dynamic activists to top party posts, the UW once again put its trust in such veterans of the Solidarity underground opposition as Tadeusz Mazowiecki and Bronislaw Geremek. The congress was immediately followed by a massive defection -- led by Donald Tusk -- of UW young activists to Olechowski's PO. It seems that the PO, with its program incorporating many of the UW's liberal ideas, has succeeded in winning over the middle-class electorate.

    The SLD-UP election bloc is poised for a wide-margin victory on 23 September. Some polls forecast that the bloc may garner nearly 50 percent of the vote and win an outright majority in the parliament. If the AWSP and the UW fail to win parliamentary seats, their political survival will be in serious doubt, to say the least. Such a development may spell not only the end of their careers for some prominent and distinguished politicians, but also the end of an epoch. This epoch began with an overwhelming vote of support installing the Solidarity camp in power, and may end with a no less overwhelming vote casting it into political oblivion.

    21-09-01


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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