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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 172, 01-09-11

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 5, No. 172, 11 September 2001


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] EXPLOSION KILLS ARMENIAN PREMIER'S ADVISER
  • [02] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POSTPONES LAUNCH OF CAMPAIGN TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT
  • [03] PACE HEAD BEGINS VISIT TO ARMENIA
  • [04] GEORGIAN MINISTER REQUESTS INVESTIGATION INTO CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HIM...
  • [05] ...AS POLL SHOWS GEORGIANS DO NOT BELIEVE PRESIDENT'S ANTICORRUPTION RHETORIC
  • [06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS RATIONALE FOR HIS VISIT TO ADJARIA
  • [07] KYRGYZSTAN CLAIMS PROGRESS IN DELIMITATION OF BORDER WITH UZBEKISTAN
  • [08] TAJIK, RUSSIAN PRESIDENTS DISCUSS SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN
  • [09] TURKMEN PRESIDENT FINISHES WORK ON NATIONAL 'SPIRITUAL CODE'
  • [10] MOSCOW MAYOR ASSESSES POTENTIAL FOR COOPERATION WITH TAJIKISTAN...
  • [11] ...AND UZBEKISTAN

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [12] U.S. WARY OF NATO ROLE IN MACEDONIA
  • [13] U.S., NATO IRKED AT EU FOR NOT CONSULTING OVER MACEDONIA
  • [14] NATO WARNS MACEDONIA OVER PARAMILITARIES
  • [15] RUSSIA SEEKS UN MANDATE FOR MACEDONIA
  • [16] MACEDONIAN PARLIAMENT DEBATES MINISTER'S FATE
  • [17] NATO ARRESTS 20 IN KOSOVA
  • [18] ALBANIA TO DESTROY 1.6 MILLION MINES
  • [19] MONTENEGRIN, YUGOSLAV PRESIDENTS TO MEET
  • [20] UN LIFTS SERBIAN ARMS EMBARGO
  • [21] YUGOSLAV FOREIGN MINISTER GREETS UN VOTE
  • [22] HAGUE TRIBUNAL HEARS OF BOSNIAN VICTIMS BURNED ALIVE
  • [23] BOSNIAN WORKERS LAUNCH HUNGER STRIKE
  • [24] RESITA WORKERS CONTINUE PROTESTS IN ROMANIA
  • [25] NASTASE POINTS OUT ROMANIA AS MODEL FOR INTERETHNIC RELATIONS
  • [26] MOLDOVAN OPPOSITION LEADER ACQUITTED OF CHARGES
  • [27] SMIRNOV ACCUSES VORONIN OF DICTATORIAL POLICIES
  • [28] PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEGINS IN TRANSDNIESTER
  • [29] BULGARIA TO REQUIRE VISAS FOR RUSSIANS, UKRAINIANS, GEORGIANS
  • [30] CROATIAN PRESIDENT IMPRESSED BY BULGARIA'S STRIDES TOWARD EUROPE
  • [31] IS BULGARIA'S ETHNIC TURKISH PARTY AGAINST STOYANOV'S CANDIDACY?

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [32] SHOULD LUKASHENKA BE REGARDED AS A LEGITIMATE PRESIDENT?

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] EXPLOSION KILLS ARMENIAN PREMIER'S ADVISER

    Gagik Poghossian, an adviser to Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, was killed in Yerevan early on 11 September by a hand grenade attached to the front door of his apartment, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Poghossian served from May to October 2000 as minister for tax returns, and in July 2001 was appointed head of Markarian's oversight committee. LF

    [02] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION POSTPONES LAUNCH OF CAMPAIGN TO IMPEACH PRESIDENT

    The three opposition parties that issued a statement in Yerevan on 7 September demanding the impeachment of President Robert Kocharian (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 September 2001), on 10 September decided to postpone beginning the collection of deputies' signatures in support of that demand, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Hanrapetutiun leader and former Prime Minister Aram Sargsian said his party, together with the People's Party of Armenia and the National Accord Front, is still working on the text of the draft demand listing alleged violations of the constitution by Kocharian. Those alleged violations include the sacking in May 2000 of Defense Minister Vaghashak Harutiunian. LF

    [03] PACE HEAD BEGINS VISIT TO ARMENIA

    Addressing the Armenian parliament on 10 September on the first day of a two-day visit to Yerevan, Lord Russell Johnston urged the removal of the death penalty from Armenia's penal code in line with commitments the country made in January 2001 at the time of its acceptance into full membership of the Council of Europe, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. He acknowledged that many in Armenia believe that the perpetrators of the October 1999 parliament shootings should be executed, but said the abolition of the death penalty "is a measure that needs to be taken for the benefit of society as a whole." He also called for a reform of the Armenian prison system. Johnston gave an overall positive assessment of the "steady progress" he said Armenia is making toward full compliance with its commitments to the Council of Europe. He also told Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian that PACE was mistaken in its pronouncement last week that elections to local government bodies in the unrecognized Nagorno- Karabakh Republic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 and 6 September 2001) could undermine attempts to resolve the Karabakh conflict, according to an Armenian Foreign Ministry statement. LF

    [04] GEORGIAN MINISTER REQUESTS INVESTIGATION INTO CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HIM...

    Georgian Economy, Industry, and Trade Minister Vano Chkhartishvili has appealed to the prosecutor-general and the Anticorruption Council to launch a formal investigation into repeated allegations that he is engaged in corruption, Caucasus Press reported on 10 September, citing the daily "Akhali taoba." Chkhartishvili is rumored to be the richest minister in Georgia; local residents recently threatened to burn down a five-story mansion he is having built in the village of Ureki. LF

    [05] ...AS POLL SHOWS GEORGIANS DO NOT BELIEVE PRESIDENT'S ANTICORRUPTION RHETORIC

    A poll of 600 people conducted by Nea Intermedia and summarized by "Akhali versia" on 11 September revealed that 88.8 percent do not believe that President Eduard Shevardnadze is serious in repeatedly pledging to crack down on corruption. Just over half (50.8 percent) believe that the reason for Shevardnadze's imputed reluctance to take serious measures against corruption is that he himself is guilty of such practices, while 31.5 percent believe members of Shevardnadze's family are guilty of corruption. LF

    [06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS RATIONALE FOR HIS VISIT TO ADJARIA

    In his traditional Monday radio interview, President Shevardnadze stressed that his 8 September stopover in Batumi while returning from a state visit to Romania (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 September 2001) was not occasioned by the rising tensions between the central Georgian government and Adjar leader Aslan Abashidze, Caspian News Agency reported. While in Adjaria, Shevardnadze together with Abashidze and former Turkish President Suleiman Demirel attended a ceremony to mark the opening of the first section of a new highway linking Batumi and the Black Sea town of Kobuleti, which is part of the "New Silk Road" transport network. A Turkish construction company is implementing the project, which will take 18 months to complete. LF

    [07] KYRGYZSTAN CLAIMS PROGRESS IN DELIMITATION OF BORDER WITH UZBEKISTAN

    Talks in Tashkent on 5-8 September on the delimitation of the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border made some headway, the head of the Kyrgyz delegation, Salamat Alamanov, told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 10 September. He said 290 kilometers of the 700-kilometer border between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan's Djalalabad Oblast have been delimitated. The total length of the two countries' shared border is 1,300 kilometers. LF

    [08] TAJIK, RUSSIAN PRESIDENTS DISCUSS SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN

    In a telephone conversation on 10 September, Tajikistan's President Imomali Rakhmonov and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in both Tajikistan and Afghanistan in light of the "increasing terrorist activity" in both countries, ITAR-TASS reported. Also on 10 September, Tajikistan's envoy to the UN, Rashid Alimov, predicted that even if reports of the death of Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud are confirmed, his demise is unlikely to change the situation in Afghanistan "overnight," according to AP. "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 11 September that Massoud was transported to Dushanbe for treatment by Russian medical personnel after the 9 September attempt on his life. LF

    [09] TURKMEN PRESIDENT FINISHES WORK ON NATIONAL 'SPIRITUAL CODE'

    Saparmurat Niyazov has completed the Rukhname, the "spiritual constitution" for the Turkmen people on which he has been working for the past three years, and the text was sent to a publisher on 10 September, Interfax reported quoting a member of the presidential staff. Calling for the compilation of such a volume in 1998, Niyazov said it should serve as a comprehensive code of moral conduct based on Turkmen national tradition. LF

    [10] MOSCOW MAYOR ASSESSES POTENTIAL FOR COOPERATION WITH TAJIKISTAN...

    Visiting Dushanbe on 8-9 September to participate in the celebrations marking the 10th anniversary of Tajikistan's independence, Yurii Luzhkov met with Tajik President Rakhmonov, Dushanbe Mayor Makhmudsaid Ubaidulloev, and Tajik Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov to discuss possible areas of cooperation between the city of Moscow and Tajikistan, Caspian News Agency reported on 10 September. Agreement was reached that engineers from Moscow will advise on the condition of Dushanbe's water mains and sewage system, and the city's housing department will make available equipment worth 17.7 million rubles ($590,000). LF

    [11] ...AND UZBEKISTAN

    Earlier last week, Luzhkov met in Tashkent with Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Tashkent Mayor Kazim Tuliaganov, Caspian News Agency reported on 10 September. Luzhkov expressed regret that the trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Moscow is so low -- $113 million, as compared with $3 billion between Moscow and Belarus. He attributed that discrepancy to Uzbekistan's continued failure to make its currency fully convertible. He expressed interest in imports of cotton and tobacco from Uzbekistan, in return for which Moscow is ready to provide Uzbekistan with high-technology and consumer goods. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [12] U.S. WARY OF NATO ROLE IN MACEDONIA

    State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said in Washington on 10 September that the U.S. is not sure that any future armed Western presence in Macedonia should be sponsored by NATO, Reuters reported. "At this point, we're not convinced it has to be a NATO-led mission, and we'll continue to discuss that with our partners, our allies, and, of course, with our friends, the Macedonian government," Reeker added. He did not explicitly rule out a NATO mandate to protect unarmed OSCE monitors, but noted: "We do believe that an EU security mission is appropriate to help the security for those monitors" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 10 September 2001). Reeker concluded: "We encourage the European Union to continue to review this situation and take the lead in assembling a follow-on mission if requested by the government of Macedonia after Task Force Harvest completes its work on September 26." PM

    [13] U.S., NATO IRKED AT EU FOR NOT CONSULTING OVER MACEDONIA

    Officials of the U.S. and of the Atlantic alliance are unhappy that EU foreign ministers recently announced a call for a new force for Macedonia without consulting either Washington or NATO, Reuters reported from Brussels on 11 September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 September 2001). The U.S. and the alliance both want to avoid an open-ended commitment in Macedonia or allowing Russia or China to play a "spoiler role." An unidentified NATO diplomat told the news agency that "the Americans have always been allergic to the idea of a European caucus precooking NATO decisions and presenting the United States with a set position." In his latest book, "Does America Need a Foreign Policy?", former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger writes that inflexible EU negotiating stances, worked out without any consultation with Washington, pose a major problem in trans- Atlantic relations. PM

    [14] NATO WARNS MACEDONIA OVER PARAMILITARIES

    NATO envoy Peter Feith has written to senior Macedonian officials warning about the destabilizing effect of ethnic Macedonian paramilitaries, AP reported from Skopje on 11 September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 August 2001). Feith called on the authorities to remove "all illegal armed groups operating in the crisis area," including a unit called Lions, which is reportedly active near Tetovo. NATO spokesman Mark Laity said the armed bands "could be an inhibiting factor on the success of the weapons- collection process." PM

    [15] RUSSIA SEEKS UN MANDATE FOR MACEDONIA

    Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Macedonian Deputy Foreign Minister Viktor Gaber in Moscow on 10 September that "We understand the threat that the actions of extremist forces pose for stability in Macedonia," Interfax reported. If Skopje wants more support from the international community, "this support must be provided through a corresponding mandate of the UN Security Council," Ivanov said. This mandate should "clearly state, above all, respect for Macedonia's sovereignty and territorial integrity" and should "clearly define the responsibility of the forces that would carry out this or that mission at the Macedonian leadership's request" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 10 September 2001 and "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 31 July 2001). Britain maintains that no UN mandate is necessary if the Macedonian government chooses to invite a foreign force into the country. PM

    [16] MACEDONIAN PARLIAMENT DEBATES MINISTER'S FATE

    The parliament is scheduled on 11 September to debate a request by Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski to sack ethnic Albanian Justice Minister Hixhet Mehmeti, AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 August 2001). Mehmeti has said that his Party of Democratic Prosperity (PPD) will leave the shaky coalition government if he is removed. Referring to parliamentary delays in discussing constitutional reform, NATO spokesman Mark Laity said: "We have a high degree of confidence that [parliament speaker Stojan] Andov and the government are aware of the need to move ahead as fast as possible. We have a high degree of confidence they will reconcile the needs of democracy with their own government policy. But that is their task, and we would not presume to tell them what to do." Meanwhile, dpa reported that 100 ethnic Albanians will begin police training on 17 September as part of the reforms aimed at giving Albanians a greater role in running the country. PM

    [17] NATO ARRESTS 20 IN KOSOVA

    Peacekeepers have arrested 20 unarmed ethnic Albanians crossing illegally from Macedonia into Kosova in recent days, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 10 September. PM

    [18] ALBANIA TO DESTROY 1.6 MILLION MINES

    The Albanian authorities have begun to destroy and recycle 1.6 million land mines in a program sponsored by Canada under the auspices of NATO's Partnership for Peace Program, AP reported from Tirana on 10 September. The work is taking place in an explosives factory at Mjekes near Elbasan. Many mines were stockpiled by the regime of the communist dictator Enver Hoxha, but mines and other ordinance dating as far back as World War I have been found in various parts of the country. PM

    [19] MONTENEGRIN, YUGOSLAV PRESIDENTS TO MEET

    President Milo Djukanovic will host his Yugoslav counterpart Vojislav Kostunica on 11 September in Podgorica, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The two bitter rivals will discuss the future of the Serbian- Montenegrin federation. Montenegro does not recognize the legitimacy of the Yugoslav government, which, Podgorica argues, was elected under legislation enacted by former President Slobodan Milosevic without the approval and to the deliberate detriment of the Montenegrin government. PM

    [20] UN LIFTS SERBIAN ARMS EMBARGO

    The Security Council voted unanimously on 10 September to end the arms embargo against Yugoslavia, which was the last major sanction still in place against Belgrade, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The U.S. submitted the resolution, which had been strongly supported by France, Russia, and China. French Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, who is the current council chair, said that the vote "reveals the good relations, the constructive cooperation, and the trust which exist now between the democratic authorities in Belgrade and the international community. The development of the dialogue between Yugoslavia and the international community is positive for the search of peace, stability, and reconciliation in Southeast Europe," Reuters reported. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said after the vote: "I think it is a very positive development and I applaud the council for taking prompt action." Russia's deputy ambassador to the UN, Gennadii Gatilov, told ITAR-TASS that the lifting of the embargo "reflects the real situation," and "does not apply to the Albanian terrorists in Kosovo." PM

    [21] YUGOSLAV FOREIGN MINISTER GREETS UN VOTE

    Goran Svilanovic said in Belgrade on 10 September after the vote to lift the embargo: "This means not only that there are no more sanctions, but also that we can think about the role of the military-industrial complex in our country's economy. There should be no great expectations in that area, but it is important to know that we no longer have a limitation we've had so far," Reuters reported. PM

    [22] HAGUE TRIBUNAL HEARS OF BOSNIAN VICTIMS BURNED ALIVE

    Prosecutors at The Hague-based war crimes tribunal opened the trials of five Bosnian Serbs and two Croats on 10 September, Reuters reported. The judges heard how Bosnian Serb Mitar Vasiljevic, a waiter who belonged to the paramilitary White Eagles, systematically murdered Muslims in Visegrad in 1992. In one incident, Vasiljevic and his friends burned alive 65 women, children, and old men by sealing them in a room in a house and setting it alight. "There was a small baby among them. She had yet to see her third day on this earth," said prosecutor Dermot Groome. Vasiljevic shone a light on those trying to escape so that his colleagues could kill them. The prosecutor noted that Vasiljevic is no leader of war criminals, but "is one who by his own hands committed an act that is perhaps one of the single most horrific and egregious affronts to humanity in the war -- to the most innocent of victims." The Croats are Mladen Naletilic "Tuta" and Vinko Martinovic "Stela," who committed crimes in ethnic cleansing campaigns against Muslims in 1993. PM

    [23] BOSNIAN WORKERS LAUNCH HUNGER STRIKE

    Some 600 workers at the Polihem chemical plant in Tuzla began a hunger strike after power was shut off to Polihem because of unpaid bills, AP reported on 11 September. PM

    [24] RESITA WORKERS CONTINUE PROTESTS IN ROMANIA

    Workers at the Resita steel-producer CSR blocked a major intersection within the city on 10 September, demanding the resumption of the plant's activities and the payment of wage arrears, Romanian media reported. According to the "Adevarul" daily, police were ready to intervene, but Caras-Severin County Prefect Pavel Balan canceled the intervention in the last moment. The protesters asked to meet Premier Adrian Nastase to present their requests. They also announced that as of 11 September, 50 workers would begin a hunger strike. Nastase said in Bucharest that the protesters should understand that by blocking the streets they will isolate the city and scare away potential investors. He added that his counselor Eugen Dijmarescu has gone to the U.S. to discuss CSR's situation with the majority stakeholder Noble Ventures. (See also RFE/RL's "Newsline," 31 August 2001) ZsM

    [25] NASTASE POINTS OUT ROMANIA AS MODEL FOR INTERETHNIC RELATIONS

    Romanian Premier Nastase on 10 September said his country is a model for interethnic relations, Mediafax reported. He said his government tries to solve ethnic issues by taking into account the specific realities of Romanian society. Nastase spoke at the opening of an OSCE conference being held in Bucharest on the struggle against discrimination of Roma. Nastase said problems related to Roma need to be solved with "coherent social, civic, economic, and political inclusion policies." Referring to the strategy recently adopted by the government for improving the situation of Roma, the premier said the strategy's success also depends on the civil society and Roma community leaders and members. ZsM

    [26] MOLDOVAN OPPOSITION LEADER ACQUITTED OF CHARGES

    The Chisinau Tribunal on 10 September acquitted opposition Popular Party Christian Democratic Chairman Iurie Rosca of all charges, Flux reported. The court thus overruled a Chisinau district court decision that found Rosca guilty of hitting a woman in the print shop that publishes his party's newspaper. That court stopped Rosca's prosecution for procedural reasons. In July, the parliament controlled by the Party of Moldovan Communists lifted Rosca's parliamentary immunity to allow prosecution. ZsM

    [27] SMIRNOV ACCUSES VORONIN OF DICTATORIAL POLICIES

    In an interview with TVC TV, Transdniester separatist leader Igor Smirnov on 10 September accused Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin of "promoting a dictatorial and pressure policy against the Transdniester region," Flux reported. He reiterated his earlier protest against the change of Moldovan customs seals, saying Voronin had thus breached "all documents" signed by Chisinau and Tiraspol leaders. Smirnov also said that after releasing Ilie Ilascu, a gesture made, in his words, "in order to remove all obstacles to the negotiation process," Voronin did not apologize for the "prejudices caused" during the 1992 conflict. ZsM

    [28] PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEGINS IN TRANSDNIESTER

    The campaign for the 9 December presidential election started on 10 September in the breakaway Transdniester region, Flux reported. Due to a new presidential system established last year, Tiraspol leader Smirnov will run for a third term as "president." ZsM

    [29] BULGARIA TO REQUIRE VISAS FOR RUSSIANS, UKRAINIANS, GEORGIANS

    The Bulgarian Foreign Ministry said it will introduce a visa regime for all visitors from Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia beginning on 1 October, Reuters reported on 11 September. The ministry said in a statement that the visas are in line with an agreement Sofia made with the EU. The union lifted visa requirements for Bulgarians in April on the condition that the Balkan country tighten its borders to the East and curb illegal immigration. The statement added that discussions with the three affected countries will take place to find ways of easing visa restrictions for businessmen and tourists. PB

    [30] CROATIAN PRESIDENT IMPRESSED BY BULGARIA'S STRIDES TOWARD EUROPE

    Stipe Mesic said in Sofia on 11 September that relations between the two countries have a promising future, BTA reported. Mesic, in Bulgaria for a meeting of the Partners in Transition Conference, said after meeting with Bulgarian President Petar Stoyanov that Croatia "follows Bulgaria's achievements with interest...[as] the country has made remarkable progress on the track to Europe." Stoyanov said that along with striving for membership in NATO and the EU, the two countries have "another common goal: to prove that there are countries in the Balkans which have rejected historical prejudice and are resolved to carry through with economic reforms and democratic changes." Mesic, who will also meet with Bulgarian Premier Simeon Saxecoburggotski, announced that Croatian Premier Ivica Racan will visit Bulgaria later this year to work toward an agreement on trade liberalization. PB

    [31] IS BULGARIA'S ETHNIC TURKISH PARTY AGAINST STOYANOV'S CANDIDACY?

    Bulgarian newspapers are increasingly reporting on possible candidates for the upcoming presidential election in which President Stoyanov is the only confirmed major candidate. The daily "Novinar" reported on 11 September that the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) will not support Stoyanov's candidacy and will instead back a candidate nominated by the party of Premier Saxecoburggotski, the National Movement Simeon II (NDSV). "Novinar" has reported -- citing advisers to the prime minister -- that this candidate will be Constitutional Court Chairman Hristo Danov. The daily "Demokratsiya," which is the paper of the opposition Union of Democratic Forces, says the DPS will support Danov's candidacy only if DPS deputy Emel Etem is nominated as vice president. The daily "24 Chasa" reports that the NDSV will nominate Constitutional Court Judge Georgi Markov instead of Danov. PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [32] SHOULD LUKASHENKA BE REGARDED AS A LEGITIMATE PRESIDENT?

    By Jan Maksymiuk

    Belarus's Central Election Commission announced on 10 September that President Alyaksandr Lukashenka overwhelmingly won his reelection the previous day, garnering no less than 75 percent of the vote. His rival, unified opposition candidate Uladzimir Hancharyk, obtained a mere 15 percent.

    In a statement issued the same day, the OSCE said Belarus's electoral process had "fundamental flaws." Europe's election watchdog noted that the authorities did everything possible to block the opposition, including ruling by decree, failing to ensure the independence of the election administration, failing to properly control early voting, and creating a campaign environment that was seriously detrimental to the opposition. The statement also said the authorities launched a campaign of intimidation against opposition activists, domestic observers, and independent media, and a smear campaign against international observers.

    The U.S. State Department was far harsher in its assessment of Belarus's ballot, stressing that "Lukashenka has merely used a facade of elections to engineer a meaningless victory for himself." The U.S. State Department said the election cannot be internationally recognized. Washington pledged to consult with the OSCE on what steps to take to restore democracy in Belarus.

    How many people really voted for Lukashenka will most likely remain a mystery. The authorities and election officials prevented independent monitors from tabulating precinct-by-precinct votes and offering an independent picture of the vote. At the same time, the use on a mass scale of a controversial early voting procedure has spawned widespread suspicions that the authorities may have resorted to mass falsifications during those five days of practically unmonitored early voting.

    Gerard Stoudman, head of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, told RFE/RL on 10 September that he has no evidence of manipulations of the election figures in Belarus. Stoudman, who led the OSCE's monitoring effort in the Belarusian ballot, added that in such a heavily Sovietized country as Belarus it is easy for the authorities to ensure a favorable election outcome without resorting to outright falsification of the figures.

    The OSCE's final assessment of Belarus's presidential ballot is still to come, but it is already evident that the organization as a whole as well as each state participating in it will soon face a difficult question -- what to do about Lukashenka? Is he a legitimate president or not? Should European states resume political contacts with his regime or isolate it even further?

    "A policy of isolation has never worked. It is clear that if this country [Belarus] feels like a fortress under siege, like Iraq, Yugoslavia under Milosevic, Cuba, etc., there will be no changes for the next 15 years," Stoudman told Reuters. It is likely that in time more and more European politicians will express their support for Stoudman's argument.

    Does that argument in favor of not isolating Lukashenka mean that the effort, led primarily by the U.S., to support the anti-Lukashenka opposition and establish some mechanisms and structures of civil society in Belarus has suffered a failure? Not necessarily so. "The most important result of this election is the development of democratically and politically competent institutions in civil society," OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group head Hans Georg Wieck believes. Of course, it is primarily up to the Belarusian opposition to show that it can prove equal to further challenges and to maintain its unity that was so painstakingly achieved shortly before the presidential election. But it is also obvious that Belarus's nascent democratic groups need further moral and financial support from the West in order to overcome their frustration in the wake of Lukashenka's election triumph.

    This week, "Christian Science Monitor" revealed that Washington spent $24 million in 2000 to support NGOs and opposition groups in Belarus, and is going to spend no less this year. Although such sums may seem pretty fat in the country where National Bank reserves do not exceed $200 million, they are in no way commensurate with the money that is spent to counter any democratization processes in Belarus and to keep the Lukashenka regime afloat.

    According to opposition estimates, supporting Belarus's antiquated economy -- which also means keeping the Lukashenka regime relatively popular among wider strata of the Belarusian population -- costs Russia no less than $1 billion annually. Russia supports Lukashenka by offering his regime cheap oil and gas, regular debt relief, and access to taxes on products heading for Russia. Russia is also the principal market for Belarusian producers who could have faced immense difficulties in finding buyers elsewhere.

    Lukashenka's reelection -- on which Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Belarusian leader immediately after the preliminary election results were released by Minsk -- is presenting a troublesome dilemma for the Kremlin too. There has recently been an increasing number of voices from Russian politicians and political experts asserting that Moscow's support for Lukashenka costs Russia too much and is detrimental to Russian interests in the long run. Russia is apparently gradually becoming aware that it may be possible to maintain Belarus in the Russian sphere of influence without having the "last dictator in Europe" installed in Minsk.

    In his independence-day greeting to Lukashenka in July, Putin spoke about Belarus's commitment to freedom and democracy as a necessary precondition for unification with Russia. While unification with Russia may not necessarily be the Belarusian opposition's primary goal, Moscow's tougher course toward Belarus's autocratic leader would obviously be welcome by all anti-Lukashenka groups. The presidential ballot in Belarus clearly testified that Moscow's political and economic leverage in that country remains a major factor that must be taken into account by all political players. Hancharyk and other opposition politicians have made an attempt at currying Moscow's favors in the presidential campaign. This time they failed, but 9 September 2001 in no way means the end of politics in Belarus.

    11-09-01


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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