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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 148, 01-08-07Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 148, 7 August 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY HIGHLIGHTS DELAY IN EARTHQUAKE RECONSTRUCTIONIn an interview with "Golos Armenii" on 4 August circulated by Groong, parliament State and Legal Commission Chairman Viktor Dallakian noted the failure of successive Armenian governments to meet deadlines for the reconstruction of housing and factories in northern Armenia destroyed by the December 1988 earthquake. He noted that a 1994 program aimed to complete reconstruction by 2000, and a program adopted in 1998 set 2001 as the deadline for doing so, but that some 14,920 families are still housed in temporary accommodation. Dallakian argued that those officials responsible for non-completion of the reconstruction programs should be punished. He also advocated more energetic measures to revive the industry and economy in the earthquake zone to prevent a further outflow of the population in search of employment elsewhere. LF[02] ARMENIA, NAGORNO-KARABAKH TO EXPAND ECONOMIC TIESFollowing what were described as two days of "difficult" talks in Stepanakert, Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian and the leaders of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic reached agreement on a 70-point economic cooperation program, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported on 6 August. The nature of the problems surrounding those talks was not explained, but officials denied that they resulted from Yerevan's delay in releasing subsidies that make up over half of the unrecognized republic's annual budget of $25 million. LF[03] NO DATE SET FOR IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER'S VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN?Reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi will visit Baku within the next 10 days are untrue, Turan reported on 6 August citing sources within the presidential administration and the Foreign Ministry. Kharrazi's visit is intended to pave the way for the long-postponed visit by Azerbaijani's President Heidar Aliev to Iran, which Azerbaijani officials have said "may" take place this month. On 5 August, the "Tehran Times" reported that Iranian ground and air forces will conduct maneuvers close to the Iranian-Azerbaijani border in September, Groong reported. LF[04] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT RULES OUT SEEKING THIRD TERM...Eduard Shevardnadze told journalists in Tbilisi on 6 August that he does not intend to seek a third presidential term in the ballot due in April 2005, Caucasus Press and western agencies reported. Shevardnadze pointed out that the Georgian Constitution, which currently limits to two the number of terms one individual may serve as president, would have to be amended to enable him to do so, and such amendments, Shevardnadze said, are "unacceptable." He also admitted that at 73, he is "not the youngest president." LF[05] ...HINTS AT OBSTACLES TO SIGNING GAS TRANSIT AGREEMENT...In his traditional Monday radio broadcast, Shevardnadze announced on 6 August that an agreement with Azerbaijan on construction of a gas pipeline to export to Turkey via Georgia natural gas from Azerbaijan's offshore Shah- Deniz Caspian field is "practically" ready, and that he will travel to Baku to sign that agreement before the end of this month. The signing ceremony was earlier scheduled for 27 July, but Shevardnadze asked the previous day for it to be postponed, citing as his reason for doing so the uproar in Georgia engendered by the murder of TV journalist Giorgi Sanaya (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 July 2001). Caucasus Press on 30 July quoted Trend News Agency as reporting that Baku and Tbilisi have not yet come to an agreement on transport quotas. In addition, Shevardnadze's statement that Georgia "may" sign an agreement on purchasing Shah-Deniz gas for its own energy need to lessen its dependence on Russia suggests failure to reach agreement with Baku on the terms of those sales. The two sides were also scheduled to sign a bilateral agreement on economic cooperation. LF[06] ...CALLS FOR RESTORING RAIL, ROAD TRANSPORT VIA ABKHAZIAShevardnadze also said on 6 August that he would like to see road and rail transport from Russia to Armenia via Abkhazia restored, Caucasus Press reported. He said such a move would benefit Russia and Armenia as well as expedite the economic restoration of Abkhazia's Gali Raion, which before the 1992-1993 war was populated primarily by Georgians who still wish to return there. The Georgian daily "Dilis gazeti" reported on 2 August that the Armenian government has offered to fund reconstruction of the railway through Abkhazia, but that Tamaz Nadareishvili, the chairman of the Abkhaz parliament in exile, argued against doing so until the Georgian central government has regained control of Abkhazia and all Georgian displaced persons have returned there. LF[07] OSCE OBSERVERS ON GEORGIAN-CHECHEN BORDER ATTACKEDThe OSCE observer post in Shatili, on the Georgian Chechen border, was attacked late on 6 August by two armed men who were reportedly drunk, Caucasus Press reported the following day. The two men, who to judge by their names are Georgians, were wounded in the ensuing exchange of fire and have been hospitalized. It was the first such incident since the OSCE contingent was deployed to monitor the border early last year. LF[08] FORMER KAZAKH PREMIER CASTS DOUBT ON RESULTS OF CAPITAL LEGALIZATION DRIVEIn an interview with "Kommersant-Vlast" No. 30 (31 July 2001), former Kazakh Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin questioned claims by Kazakh officials that the capital amnesty that ended last month resulted in the return to Kazakh banks of over $400 million that had been illegally transferred abroad (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 July 2001). Kazhegeldin said the actual sum returned was no more than 10 percent of the figure claimed, while up to $2 billion from the proceeds of the sale of Kazakh oil was illicitly transferred to banks in the Bahamas and Bermuda last year alone. Kazhegeldin said he disapproves of the concept of such a capital amnesty, which he believes originated with President Nursultan Nazarbaev. He argued that removing all existing constraints on the amount that may be legally exported from Kazakhstan would boost foreign investors' confidence and halt further illegal outflows of capital. "Novye izvestiya" reported on 31 July without disclosing its sources that over half of those persons who have transferred money back to Kazakhstan under the amnesty intend to leave it to accumulate interest in Kazakh banks, rather than invest it in the Kazakh economy as the authors of the amnesty had hoped. LF[09] KYRGYZ INTEREST GROUP VISITS DISPUTED BORDER REGION WITH CHINAThirteen members of the recently created public committee for the Kyrgyz- Chinese border dispute left Bishkek on 6 August on a fact-finding mission to the disputed Uzengi-Kuush region on the Kyrgyz-Chinese border, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. In June 2001 the lower chamber of the Kyrgyz parliament called for the annulment of amendments signed two years earlier by the Chinese and Kyrgyz presidents to a border agreement they signed in 1996. Under those amendments, which President Askar Akaev insists are in Kyrgyzstan's best interest, Kyrgyzstan cedes some 87,000 hectares (870 square kilometers) of territory to China (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6, 14, 20 and 22 June 2001). LF[10] KYRGYZSTAN, IRAN PLEDGE TO EXPAND COOPERATIONDuring a visit last week to Tehran, Kyrgyz Deputy Foreign Minister Asanbek Osmonaliev signed a memorandum of understanding with his Iranian counterpart Ali Ahani on expanding bilateral and regional economic cooperation, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau and Caspian News Agency reported. They also discussed economic and cultural cooperation and relaxing mutual visa requirements. Osmonaliev also met with Iranian Foreign Minister Kharrazi. LF[11] TAJIK PRESIDENT ASSESSES EFFICIENCY OF LAW-ENFORCEMENT AGENCIESPresident Imomali Rakhmonov chaired a meeting of senior Interior Ministry officials in Dushanbe on 6 August at which he warned them that they should make greater efforts to crack down on drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime in order to create the necessary conditions for post- conflict rehabilitation and economic upswing, Asia Plus-Blitz reported. Tajik police are still hunting remaining supporters of former opposition field commander Rakhmon Sanginov, weeks after having reported prematurely that his detachment had been "neutralized" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9, 16 and 31 July 2001). LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] PARDEW: MACEDONIAN 'ROLLER COASTER' IN A DOWNTURN AGAINU.S. envoy James Pardew told the BBC from Ohrid on 6 August that the Macedonian negotiating process has constant ups and downs "like a roller coaster." He said that he is disappointed by the latest, unexpected demands from the Macedonian side that the guerrillas of the National Liberation Army (UCK) begin to disarm before ethnic Macedonian legislators will agree to ratify any agreement (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 August 2001, and "End Note" below). Pardew added that the strict disarmament timetable the Macedonians want would be difficult for the international officials to accept, "let alone the Albanians." Talks were suspended on 6 August after the Macedonians presented their demands. Negotiations resumed on 7 August, but it is not clear at which level. Vatican Radio noted that the guerrillas will be reluctant to disarm so long as the Macedonian authorities maintain indictments against 11 UCK leaders for atrocities (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 July 2001). RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported that the UCK said that disarmament must go hand-in-hand with the implementation of a political agreement. PM[13] NATO TO DEPLOY BEFORE MACEDONIAN AGREEMENT RATIFIED?KFOR spokesman Major Barry Johnson told RFE/RL by telephone on 7 August that NATO's decision to deploy in Macedonia will involve several steps (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 August 2001). "If it facilitates the process for peace, and if it has the confidence of the elected government as well as the [UCK] for their disarming, then based on the decision of the North Atlantic Council, if the conditions are right, then they will authorize a deployment in full coordination with the government of Macedonia. So yes, there is definitely a very real possibility that that could come before the formal parliamentary action." Earlier that morning the BBC's Serbian Service quoted a NATO spokesman as saying that an "unconditional and open-ended cease-fire" is a precondition for any NATO deployment. AP reported from Skopje that Operation Essential Harvest will be headed by Danish General Gunnar Lange, NATO's senior military representative in Macedonia. PM[14] MACEDONIAN POLICE KILL FIVE ALLEGED GUERRILLASHard-line Macedonian Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski told Reuters in Skopje on 7 August that "a terrorist group was preparing an attack on Skopje, and the police carried out an operation early this morning. Five people [were] killed, five [have been] detained." He added that one of the dead was known as Commander Teli. Boskovski charged that the UCK was planning to set up a "base" in Aracinovo and use it to attack unspecified points in Skopje. Local Albanians told the news agency that some 300 police arrived at the scene at 4:00 a.m. "and also beat Albanians coming out of early morning prayers in a mosque." One man added: "They took us in the street, made us lie down, and held an automatic gun to our heads. We heard shooting inside the house and a lot of screaming." Walls were splattered with blood, he added. PM[15] REPORTED MACEDONIAN DEAL: 1,000 ALBANIAN POLICE IN TWO YEARSAbdylhadi Veseli, a vice president of the ethnic Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity (PPD), told Deutsche Welle on 6 August that the recent agreement on police reform provides for 500 additional ethnic Albanian police in 2001 and 500 more in 2002 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 August 2001). He added that local councils will choose the local police chief from a list of three candidates, but he did not say who would prepare the list. Should the council fail to agree on a choice, the central government -- not the Interior Ministry -- will make the decision. Veseli added that the EU, OSCE, and unnamed "other international organizations" will monitor police officials. PM[16] MACEDONIAN ALBANIAN LEADER BLAMES GEORGIEVSKI'S PARTYPPD leader Imer Imeri told Deutsche Welle on 6 August that peace will depend to a large extent on the "political will of the VMRO-DPMNE," or Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization, which is the party of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski (see "End Note," below). Imeri added that problems on the agenda include the legal status of the ethnic Albanian university in Tetovo and the use of national symbols (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 27 July and 6 August 2001). Imeri added that the disarmament of the UCK is a matter for the guerrillas and NATO and not for the "political leadership." PM[17] MACEDONIAN ORTHODOX LEADER: WAR IS POSSIBLETimotheus, the metropolitan of Ohrid, told Bulgarian Radio's German Service on 6 August that the church prefers a peaceful solution, but it "must be in the interest of all citizens." He added that war cannot be excluded if such an agreement is not reached. PM[18] UNHCR CHIEF CALLS FOR BETTER SECURITY IN MACEDONIAUNHCR head Ruud Lubbers said in an open letter to NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson and EU security chief Javier Solana that the security situation in Macedonia must be improved, AP reported from Geneva on 7 August. Lubbers stressed "that the longer the refugees and the displaced persons stay away from their homes, the more bitter and radicalized they are becoming and the deeper the ethnic divisions in the country are growing." The "security dilemma" facing all Macedonian citizens must be resolved, he added. PM[19] DROUGHT IN MACEDONIAAs if Macedonia does not have enough problems, it also has a drought as well. The Skopje daily "Dnevnik" reports on 7 August that hydrologists warn that the problem could be serious. "Last year, we had the most serious drought in the past 30 years, but this year will be even worse. The [water] level of lakes and rivers is very low, and it is possible that we [will find ourselves] without drinking water. That is why we call on people to use water extremely rationally, only for drinking and washing," hydrologist Konstantin Ugrinski told the newspaper. UB[20] PRESEVO ALBANIAN LEADER CALLS FOR PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION OF MINORITYPresevo Mayor Riza Halimi told Kosova Live news agency on 6 August that the Presevo valley's ethnic Albanian population should be represented proportionally in local organs of government, including the judiciary and police as well as the administration. He called for better representation for ethnic Albanians in central Serbian and Yugoslav bodies as a step toward greater democracy. He noted that there is only one Albanian in the Serbian legislature. In addition, Halimi called for more investments in the Presevo region and the creation of unspecified "special organs" to promote Albanian cultural and religious rights. Elsewhere in the Presevo region, OSCE officials began training the first of what will eventually be 400 new Albanian police for the region, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. PM[21] FORMER BOSNIAN COMMANDER DENIES THE HAGUE WANTS HIMNaser Oric told Deutsche Welle's Bosnian Service on 6 August that there is no reason to believe that The Hague-based war crimes tribunal has placed him on its secret list of indictees (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 August 2001). He said that claims that he has been indicted "are Serbian lies. I have not received any documents, information, or explanations from The Hague. Besides that, I recently attended a [war crimes] hearing in Sarajevo." Asked whether he would give himself up voluntarily if he were indicted, Oric said: "I was a volunteer in the 1992 war. If something will come up that I must do, I will do it. I am ready to go and have no problems whatsoever with it. I travel freely to Croatia and Slovenia, but not to Serbia, where I do not go. No border has been closed to me, which means that I have no reason to hide. I walk about as a free man." PM[22] BOSNIAN MINISTRY: NO INDICTMENTS RECEIVEDAmer Kapetanovic, a spokesman for the Bosnian Foreign Ministry, said in Sarajevo on 6 August that the ministry has not received any further indictments against any Muslim since the three it received the previous week, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 August 2001). PM[23] FORMER BOSNIAN LEADER: OUR MEN ARE NOT GUILTYFormer President Alija Izetbegovic told "Avaz" of 7 August that "our generals are not guilty" of war crimes. He said that his Party of Democratic Action (SDA) differs from many Bosnian Serbs in its attitude toward The Hague-based tribunal in that the SDA supports the tribunal in principle, although it has criticized the indictment of three Muslim former commanders. PM[24] CROATIA TO CUT POLICE FORCEThe Interior Ministry has called on 3,100 police to turn in their badges and guns, "Jutarnji list" reported on 7 August. The move comes as part of an overall program to rationalize the security forces, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Several options short of sacking are under consideration for the men, including employment elsewhere in the same ministry or elsewhere in government service. PM[25] ETHNIC HUNGARIAN LEADER FROM ROMANIA CRITICIZES GOVERNMENTHungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) Chairman Bela Marko on 6 August criticized Premier Adrian Nastase's intention to propose a parliamentary debate on the recently adopted Hungarian Status Law, the BBC reported. Marko said such a debate would heat up nationalist feelings and would create an anti-Hungarian mood in the country. He also warned that Nastase's idea could result in a political conflict between the UDMR and the Social Democratic Party lead by Nastase. ZsM[26] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT'S PROPOSAL TO PARDON SMALL CRIMES STIRS CONTROVERSYA bill proposal adopted by the Romanian government last week on pardoning criminals sentenced for less than five years has stirred controversy in the country, Romanian media reported on 6 August. The government argued the measure is necessary for easing overcrowding in Romanian prisons, and that criminals serving sentences for minor crimes deserve a second chance. The Romanian representative on the Council of Europe's Torture Prevention Committee, Florin Alexandru Stanescu, said all measures aimed at reducing overpopulation in Romanian prisons are "welcome." Cited by Romanian Television on 3 August, Romanian human rights expert Renate Weber said that in some cases sentences for minor crimes are too severe, while others who caused millions of dollars in damages in the economy have received light sentences. Journalist Adrian Ursu has argued against the law, saying it could also pardon those who received light sentences for major crimes. According to Mediafax, some 9,000 prisoners would benefit from the pardons. ZsM[27] VORONIN ASKS FOR CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICTMoldovan President Vladimir Voronin on 6 August announced the beginning of military reforms with the downsizing of the Moldovan army by 3,000 soldiers, Flux reported. Voronin said the measure will facilitate the world's perception of Moldova's "neutral, peace, and stability policy." He asked authorities of the breakaway Transdniester region to follow Chisinau's example in downsizing the military. Voronin added that Chisinau has proposed to Tiraspol the unification of armed forces and the establishment of a single military command. Voronin and Transdniester leader Igor Smirnov are to discuss ways of solving the conflict on 8 August in Chisinau. ZsM[28] ILASCU COMPLAINS OF PRESSURE TO WITHDRAW COMPLAINT AT ECHRRomanian Senator Ilie Ilascu on 6 July said he will not withdraw his complaint with the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) against Russia and Moldova, Flux reported. Ilascu, who spent nine years imprisoned in the breakaway Transdniester region after being sentenced to death on charges of terrorism before being released in May, has accused the two countries of human rights abuses (see RFE/RL's "Newsline," 19 July 2001). He said he is being "blackmailed" by "Moscow authorities, through Chisinau's current leadership" to withdraw his complaint to the ECHR in exchange for the release of three other prisoners from his group still in Tiraspol. Referring to the ongoing negotiations between Moldovan and Transdniestrian authorities for solving the conflict, Ilascu called these talks "false," as "the script is being prepared not in Chisinau, nor in Tiraspol, but in Moscow." ZsM[29] BULGARIAN INTELLECTUALS DECLARE SUPPORT FOR INCUMBENTSome 51 prominent Bulgarians have signed a declaration proclaiming their support for the re-election bid of President Petar Stoyanov, BTA reported on 7 August. Film director Krikor Azaryan said that the people on the list expressed their personal support before political parties have named their presidential candidates in an effort to avoid politicizing the support. Stoyanov, who will run as an independent, remains the only announced candidate for president. The signatories -- who include opera singers Alexandrina Pendanchanska and Nikolai Gyuzelev, poet Blaga Dimitrova, writer Vera Moutafchieva, musician Teodossiy Spassov, and folk singer Valya Balkanska -- said Stoyanov has "remained unchanged by power...[and] has proven that he is a president of all Bulgarians." Most observers believe that the candidate who gains the support of Premier Simeon Saxecoburggotski is going to win the election. The newspaper "Zemya" reported on 7 August that Saxecoburggotski is planning on running himself, though the constitution would have to be amended for him to do that. PB[30] BULGARIAN LABOR MINISTER TO FIGHT UNEMPLOYMENTLidiya Shouleva said that her top priorities are unemployment and poverty, BTA reported on 7 August. In an interview with the newspaper "Demokratsiya, " Shouleva also said that the budget is currently being reviewed to see if funds exist to increase public-sector wages by 10 percent. She said the government is also looking into various plans to provide loans to private businesses. Shouleva said that other topics her ministry is looking at are reducing welfare and maternity benefits as well as aiding the poor in paying their utility bills. PB[C] END NOTE[31] PEACE TALKS SUCCESSFUL, CIVIL WAR INEVITABLE IN MACEDONIA?By Ulrich BuechsenschuetzEU envoy Francois Leotard announced in Ohrid on 1 August that the peace talks between the leaders of the main ethnic Macedonian and Albanian political parties produced a compromise on the use of the Albanian language in Macedonian state institutions. This was widely seen as a major breakthrough, but Leotard himself hurried to add that "this accord is conditional on the continuation of the political discussions, notably on the issue of the police. Therefore, it is a conditional agreement." Leotard's U.S. counterpart, James Pardew, was not willing to show too much optimism, either. According to AP, Pardew said: "This is a good deal for everyone, but I am not euphoric. There's a lot of tough work ahead. This is not the end of the negotiations." The two mediators were joined by Javier Solana, the EU's representative for foreign and security policy, who came to Macedonia on 5 August. After several meetings with the Macedonian and Albanian party leaders, he told a press conference that an agreement had been reached on the police issue, but did not give any details. Some Western as well as domestic observers, however, are becoming increasingly skeptical as to whether a negotiated peace will be stable and lasting, even if the negotiations should produce what looks like a workable compromise. There are too many open questions about whether and how any agreement reached by the political leaders can actually be implemented. First, it is unclear what role the National Liberation Army (UCK) will play after a peace agreement. Will the rebel organization accept an agreement that only the legally elected representatives of the Albanian minority have negotiated? Or will the UCK leadership start a new round of violent clashes because its original demands have not been met? It is clear that Arben Xhaferi of the Democratic Party of the Albanians (PDSH) and Imer Imeri of the Party for Democratic Prosperity (PPD) are in close contact with the guerrillas. The rebels, for their part, have placed immense pressure on Xhaferi and Imeri -- there are rumors that both party leaders were given silver bullets as a warning. Whether or not this is true, the Albanian negotiators are likely to try to avoid any conflict with the UCK. On the other hand, the Albanian population of Macedonia will most likely gain from any agreement, at least at first glance. The legal status of the minority will improve and their representation in state institutions will increase. But what about their future coexistence with their Macedonian neighbors, many of whom have become increasingly suspicious and resentful in recent months? The question is whether the Albanians' improvement in status will outweigh the long-term damage to interethnic relations. Second, there is no guarantee that any agreement can gain approval in the parliament. The current peace talks have been held under the auspices of President Boris Trajkovski and mediated by U.S. and EU envoys. The leaders of the four main ethnic Albanian and Macedonian political parties have been the main participants. But there is widespread criticism that neither the Macedonian parliament nor the smaller ethnic minorities have been included in the political dialogue. For his part, parliamentary speaker Stojan Andov of the Liberal Party, who is more of a hawk than a dove, said in his speech on the Ilinden national holiday on 2 August in Krusevo that the parliament will decide on any peace agreement only after the rebels' disarm. Third, there is no guarantee that the Macedonian public will accept any peace deal signed under pressure from armed rebels. In this respect, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski's speech on 2 August was symptomatic. Speaking at Prohor Pcinjski monastery, he said: "I would like to point out that Macedonia has military equipment and capable soldiers and policemen, who are ready to restore the constitutional order in the country. Territorial integrity must be reestablished prior to the signing of any agreements, which have to be in the interest of the Republic of Macedonia." It is not clear whether by "military equipment and capable soldiers" he also meant the paramilitary formations that have recently been formed in Kicevo and Mavrovo. What is clear, however, is that Georgievski is well aware of the militant mood among broad sections of the ethnic Macedonian population. An opinion poll published by the Skopje bimonthly "Forum" on 27 July shows that some 61 percent of those interviewed -- including Macedonians, Albanians, and members of other minorities -- opt for a peaceful solution to the current crisis. But while a military solution does not have any support among the Albanian respondents, some 30 percent of the Macedonians preferred an armed conflict to a negotiated agreement. This finding was underscored by the answers given to the second question: "Would you [support] any action against the terrorists?" Some 83 percent of the Macedonians answered positively to this question. Thus, any military option triggered by hard-liners inside or outside the Macedonian government would likely find broad support among the population. If one accepts the results of this opinion poll as being representative of society as a whole, the future of Macedonian does not look very promising. Even if a civil war can be avoided, the country will remain divided along ethnic lines. Here again, the respondents from the two major ethnic groups clearly differ. Asked whether they think that the Albanians and the Macedonians can live together in the future, both groups overwhelmingly (some 60 percent each) answered in the affirmative. But while 40 percent of the Albanians responded "don't know" or did not answer the question at all, 22 percent of the Macedonian respondents thought that peaceful coexistence of the two communities is not possible. 07-08-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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