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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 5, 01-01-05Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 5, 5 January 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] TRANSNEFT SUSPENDS GAS SUPPLIES TO AZERBAIJANThe Russian company Transneft suspended gas supplies to Azerbaijan on 3 January because of customs problems, Interfax reported the following day. Transneft had begun shipments to Azerbaijan 10 days earlier, under an agreement with Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR to supply 2 million cubic meters of gas daily until 31 December 2001. That gas was intended to fuel power stations and heating plants. Azerbaijan is still, however, receiving some 7.2 billion cubic meters of gas daily from the ITERA/DITGAS Russian-German consortium. Those supplies, which began in November, were also initially interrupted because Russia's Customs Committee had not issued the necessary permit for the transit of the gas across the Russian Federation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 November 2000). LF[02] LATVIAN FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS GEORGIA, ARMENIAFollowing his 3 January talks in Baku (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2001), Indulis Berzins flew on 4 January to Yerevan via Tbilisi, where he met during a brief stopover with his Georgian counterpart Irakli Menagharishvili, Caucasus Press and ITAR-TASS reported. Menagharishvili expressed his support for the simultaneous admission of Armenia and Azerbaijan to full membership of the Council of Europe, of whose Ministers Council Berzins is chairman. Menagharishvili added that Georgia has done all in its power to facilitate that process. But Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian told Berzins later on 4 January in Yerevan that it would be incomprehensible for the Armenian leadership and people if the country's admission to full Council of Europe membership were made contingent on developments in another country, according to ITAR-TASS. Azerbaijan's acceptance into full membership is widely believed to be contingent on whether the 7 January repeat parliamentary elections in 11 constituencies are perceived as fair and democratic. LF[03] IS SHAMIL BASAEV IN GEORGIA?Georgian White Legion guerrilla commander Zurab Samushia, whose stated ambition is to gun down Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba in cold blood (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 25, 23 June 2000), claimed on 31 December that Chechen militants led by field commander Shamil Basaev have left Chechnya and are now quartered somewhere on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia, according to "Trud" on 5 January. The paper quoted Samushia as stating that the White Legion is preparing to attack Basaev's men. Basaev fought on the Abkhaz side during the 1992-1993 war. LF[04] U.S. NORMALIZES TRADE WITH GEORGIAU.S. President Bill Clinton has granted Georgia normal access to U.S. markets, Reuters reported on 4 January. Georgia is the second former Soviet republic to receive that privilege after Kyrgyzstan. The agency quoted State Department spokesman Richard Boucher as saying Clinton had signed the relevant proclamation on 29 December. Boucher further underscored Washington's "support for Georgia's sovereignty, territorial integrity and free market democratic transformation." LF[05] GEORGIAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS ABOLITION OF NATIONAL RECONCILIATION COMMISSIONRepresentatives of the 21st Century parliament faction, one of the members of the opposition Revival Union, held a press conference in Tbilisi on 4 January to demand that an emergency session of parliament be convened to discuss the abolition of the National Reconciliation Commission created in April 2000, Caucasus Press reported. Vassili Maghlaperidze, who chaired that commission, had announced its dissolution in late December, saying that it had fulfilled its purpose by identifying imprisoned suporters of former President Zviad Gamsakhurdia who were eligible for pardon or amnesty (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 29, 21 July 2000). The 21st Century faction on 4 January argued that the commission should be revived and enlarged to include representatives of the Interior Ministry and Prosecutor-General's office. Faction members also repeated their earlier demand that President Eduard Shevardnadze should take over as commission chairman. LF[06] KAZAKHS AMBIVALENT OVER PRISON AMNESTYA poll conducted on 4 January by the staff of RFE/RL's Almaty bureau revealed that most of those questioned approve the amnesty for some 27,000 prisoners signed in late December by President Nursultan Nazarbaev to mark the 10th anniversary of Kazakhstan's Declaration of Sovereignty. Some respondents, however, attributed the gesture to the authorities' inability to provide food and clothing for the entire prison population, while others expressed concern that the release of prisoners will increase the incidence of tuberculosis nation-wide. Reuters reported in February 2000 that over 10 percent of the prisoners released under an amnesty in Kazakhstan in 1999 suffer from that disease. LF[07] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY ADVISES LEADER TO LEAVE COUNTRYThe Political Council of the opposition Ar-Namys (Dignity) Party proposed on 3 January that its founder and chairman, former Vice President Feliks Kulov, leave Kyrgyzstan to avoid possible imprisonment, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported the following day. The Bishkek Military Court is due to resume on 9 January its review of its August decision to acquit Kulov on charges of abuse of his official position while serving as National Security Minister (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 August and 12 September 2000). If the court reverses the acquittal, Kulov could be sentenced to eight years imprisonment. LF[08] ULTIMATUM TO UZBEK CONVERTS IN KYRGYZSTAN RETRACTEDThe standoff in the village of Kurkol in Kyrgyzstan's Djalalabad Oblast between local villagers and ethnic Uzbek Jehovah's Witnesses was resolved peacefully on 4 January thanks to the intervention of Interior Ministry and Security Service officials, RFE/RL's Bishek bureau reported. Villagers had demanded on 3 January that the four Uzbeks either reconvert to Islam or leave the village (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2001). LF[09] PAKISTAN APPLIES FOR OBSERVER STATUS IN SHANGHAI FORUMHabib-ur-Rahman, who is Pakistan's ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, submitted to the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry on 3 January a formal request for Pakistan to be granted observer status in the Shanghai Forum, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported the following day. He said that similar requests were made to the other four member states of that grouping (Russia, China, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan). ITAR-TASS quoted an unidentified Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry official as saying on 3 January that the five member states would take a joint decision on Pakistan's request at their next summit, which is scheduled for the summer of 2001. LF[10] TURKMEN COURT ORDERS CONFISCATION OF PENTECOSTAL CHURCHAshgabat's Kopetdag district court ruled on 4 January that a private house in the city belonging to Pastor Viktor Makrousov, and which is used by the Pentecostal congregation for religious services, is to be confiscated without payment of compensation, Keston News Service reported the same day. Makrousov said he will appeal that ruling. The presiding judge initially refused foreign diplomats entrance to the court room, but allowed them to attend the afternoon session after the Turkmen Foreign Ministry intervened. An OSCE representative in Ashgabat said the court ruling "appears to have very little legal foundation" and "seems to be motivated by an intent to stop Pastor Makrousov's religious activities." LF[11] GOLD THEFT RACKET SMASHED IN UZBEKISTANUzbek police have arrested several employees of the Almalyk metallurgical plant in Tashkent Oblast who have succeeded in stealing over 1,100 kilograms of powdered ore over the past few months. That amount yielded over 6 kilograms of pure gold and 1.5 kilograms of silver valued at over 18 million soms ($50,500). LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] ALBRIGHT TELLS YUGOSLAV MINISTER: MILOSEVIC MUST GO TO HAGUEU.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told visiting Yugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic in Washington on 4 January that "there can be no doubt that Yugoslavia has turned a corner and is moving in a positive direction toward Europe and democracy" (see "Endnote" below). She stressed, however, that former President Slobodan Milosevic must stand trial in The Hague for war crimes. She argued that "international crimes, or crimes against the international community, require international justice," AP reported. Albright was referring to recent statements by various top Belgrade officials that Milosevic should stand trial in Serbia for abuse of office and corruption. Carla Del Ponte, who is the chief prosecutor of the Hague-based tribunal, feels that "Yugoslavia is not--and for many years will not--be in a position to hold a fair trial of Milosevic" for war crimes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 December 2000). She believes that many Kosovar and other witnesses are too afraid to travel to Serbia. PM[13] SVILANOVIC HOPES FOR 'NEW START...'Svilanovic said in Washington on 4 January that "I appreciate that I had the opportunity to really start, I sincerely hope, a new phase in relations... We believe that the wars have finally ended in the region and [that] we should do our best to prove that there is a will and a readiness...to continue all the efforts that have started towards peace, towards democracy, [and] towards the improvement of the human rights situation in the country," Reuters reported. Turning to the matter of Milosevic, Svilanovic said that his government intends "to cooperate" with The Hague and expects the tribunal to soon open an office in Belgrade. He added that he "looks forward" to having a "detailed discussion [with Del Ponte] on this issue" during her upcoming visit to the Serbian capital. PM[14] ...AS HE LOOKS FORWARD TO BUSH ERAOn 4 January in Washington, Svilanovic also met with aides to Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell, who declined to meet the visitor personally for reasons of protocol, the news agency added (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2001). Referring to the next administration's intention to review U.S. peacekeeping missions in the Balkans, Svilanovic said: "We believe that it is something that could be achieved with full cooperation [of the] regional countries in the Balkans," Reuters reported. It is not clear why he felt able to speak on behalf of Serbia's neighbors. PM[15] YUGOSLAV LEADER SEES KOSOVA SOLUTION ONCE 'ETHNIC PICTURE CHANGES'Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica told the VOA's Serbian Service that he continues to be "very doubtful--and nothing will change in this respect-- about the way in which the Hague court functions. But there remains an obligation [for Serbia] to cooperate with the court...," "Vesti" reported on 5 January. He has previously said that the tribunal is an anti-Serbian political tool of U.S. policy (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 October 2000). Turning to Kosova, Kostunica argued that a "lasting political solution" for the province will be possible once "the ethnic picture of Kosovo changes" and when "displaced persons return to Kosovo." He did not elaborate. Before the Kosova conflict began, Serbs made up less than 10 percent of the population, which is roughly 90 percent ethnic Albanian (see "Endnote" below). PM[16] JASHARI CHIEF INVITES KOSOVAR POLITICAL LEADERSRifat Jashari, the head of an influential family in Drenica, has invited the three most important Kosovar Albanian political leaders--Ibrahim Rugova, Hashim Thaci, and Ramush Haradinaj--for a traditional-style meeting in his home, "Koha Ditore" reported on 4 January. Jashari lost 53 members of his extended family in 1998, when Serbian forces attacked their compound with tanks and helicopters, believing it to be a base of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK). The attack marked the beginning of the Kosova war and gave the Jasharis an esteemed place in Kosovar history. The daily stressed that the three political leaders will "hardly be able to refuse" the invitation by the head of the legendary extended family. Jashari said that he wants to forge unity among Kosova's main parties on a general strategy aiming at winning independence for the region (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 22 December 2000). PM[17] 'BALKAN SYNDROME': FACT...EU Commission President Romano Prodi said in Rome on 4 January that he wants an investigation into claims that NATO's use of depleted uranium in armor-piercing artillery shells has led to deaths and illnesses among some soldiers who took part in the 1999 Kosova campaign, Reuters reported. Prodi also called for "immediate contacts with the governments of Bosnia and Serbia to discuss pollution and the problems linked to depleted uranium." His statement came after claims by an Italian NGO umbrella organization that six Italian Balkan veterans have since died of leukemia. Belgium, Portugal, France, and some additional NATO or Partnership for Peace member countries are also looking into the matter. It is not clear what the normal, peacetime incidence of leukemia in European armies is. Italy, which has important business interests in Serbia, was a reluctant participant in the Kosova campaign. PM[18] ...OR FICTION?A Defense Ministry spokesman said in Rome on 4 January that there is no link between the six deaths and depleted uranium, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. "Vesti" reported on 5 January that it has received confirmation from the Yugoslav Defense Ministry that there "has not been a single case" of death or illness from the so-called "Balkan syndrome" among Serbian forces. Germany's "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported that the Bundeswehr announced that no German soldiers have fallen ill due to contact with depleted uranium. German experts added that the incidence of radiation exposure from the munitions is "practically nil," and that it is only one-third of what average citizens are exposed to. The experts added that any problem stemming from the depleted uranium comes from the fact that it is a heavy metal, and that this aspect should be studied. During and after the Kosova campaign, the Milosevic regime staged a disinformation campaign to link all manner of illnesses in Serbia to "NATO bombs" and other weapons. The aim of the campaign was to distract attention from the Serbian atrocities that led to NATO intervention and somehow imply that NATO was the evil-doer in the Balkans. PM[19] CROATIAN GOVERNMENT GIVES UP SOME PRICE CONTROLSThe authorities will no longer regulate the price of black bread, oil products, dried milk, artificial fertilizers, telephone cards, or several other products, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported from Zagreb on 4 January. Price controls will remain in effect for electricity, gas, radio and television fees, railway and ship passenger tickets, and some postal rates. PM[20] ROMANIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF RESIGNSCatalin Harnagea, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, has submitted his resignation "at the request" of President Ion Iliescu, AP reported on 5 January, citing a spokesman for the service. According to the daily "Evenimentul zilei," Iliescu demanded that Harnagea resign at a meeting with him in late December. A former journalist lacking foreign intelligence experience, Harnagea was appointed to the post by former President Emil Constantinescu in 1997, with a mandate to reform the service along Western lines. MS[21] MOLDOVAN POLITICAL MAP REDRAWN AHEAD OF ELECTIONSSeveral central-right parties that made up the defunct Alliance for Democracy and Reforms (ADR) in the outgoing legislature have initiated contacts for running on joint lists in the early elections scheduled for 25 February, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The formations involved are the Democratic Party, the Party of Conciliation and Rebirth and the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD).The Popular Christian Democratic Party, which was also an ADR member, is not participating in these discussions. The PFD had earlier announced it will run in an electoral block including the National Peasant Christian Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic group headed by Valentin Doganiuc. Meanwhile, three Democratic Party deputies on 4 January announced their resignation from the party headed by Dumitru Diacov, accusing its leadership of taking decisions without prior consultation with its parliamentary group. MS[22] BULGARIA RUNS RADIOACTIVE TESTS FOR KOSOVA TROOPSBulgaria will run medical tests to check whether its peace keepers in Kosova were affected by radiation from depleted uranium ammunition used by NATO, Defense Minister Boiko Noev told journalists on 4 January. A Bulgarian medical team has already left for Kosova to perform the tests on the 39-man Bulgarian engineering platoon serving in the southern part of the province, Reuters and AP reported (see also Czech item above.) MS[C] END NOTE[23] HARD-HEADED DETENTEBy Patrick MooreThis is a phrase coined by the late President Richard M. Nixon to describe the Moscow policy he recommended to his successors. At a time of changes in both Belgrade and Washington, Nixon's phrase might also be considered in thinking about future U.S. policy toward Serbia. Serbia's governing political elite feels it is on a roll. Montenegro remains a big problem, and the economy is a shambles. But the foreigners have been lining up to extend early recognition to the new Yugoslav government--which is not recognized by Montenegro--before Belgrade has proven its credentials on the key issues of war crimes, war guilt, and attitudes toward its neighbors. Not only have the foreigners given away potential points of political leverage without getting anything much in return, but they have been generous with their checkbooks as well. Kostunica himself has said that he was surprised at the speed with which Belgrade has been welcomed back to the international community. Confident of his good fortune, he has also spoken of negotiating the return of Kosova to Belgrade's control despite the fact that the 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority there wants none of it. Serbian Prime Minister-designate Zoran Djindjic thinks that Kosova can be recovered after five years of internationally administered "confidence-building." Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic has called for the return of Kosova with international guarantees "over the heads" of the Albanian majority. Belgrade pundits write articles describing how Serbian diplomacy can tame the foreigners and win their support for what Djindjic calls a "reversal of alliances" that will line up the support of the international community behind Belgrade. This is heady stuff. Some observers find it strange that certain individuals in Serbia expend so much energy on the chimera of Kosova at a time when Serbia has so many other problems to worry about. Do such Serbian politicians and writers really think that they can work out an agreement with representatives of some 2 million angry Albanians after the events of the past decade? Or that Belgrade can reestablish its colonial rule over a hostile population with the blessings of the EU and the U.S.? But while the new government has pledged itself to undoing the authoritarianism, corruption, lawlessness, and economic Stalinism of the Milosevic years, it has shown no real sign of breaking with the narcissistic, self-pitying nationalism that fueled Milosevic's rise to power and four wars against his neighbors. Indeed, many of those who became angry with Milosevic's regional policies were unhappy not because he started wars, but because he lost them. More recently, there has been much speculation in the Serbian press that U.S.-Yugoslav relations are on the threshold of a new era of mutual understanding. Some writers argue that President-elect George W. Bush will withdraw U.S. troops from the Balkans and repudiate the "interventionist" policy of President Bill Clinton. The gist of this train of thought is that Washington will seek good ties to Belgrade on the basis of Realpolitik without paying much attention to the other policies that the Serbian leadership is conducting. Those commentaries often overlook the fact that, as governor of Texas, Bush supported NATO intervention in Kosova, a fact that he recalled during his presidential campaign. Several members of his policy team have indicated that he will review U.S. military commitments abroad but not take any rash steps. Other Serbian commentaries suggest that there is unlikely to be any great shift in U.S. policy toward the Balkans, which is linked to broader, long- standing U.S. strategies in Europe. Such writers point out that Washington does not act unilaterally there but as part of NATO and generally in tandem with its EU and other allies. One likely point of continuity in Western policy will be the demand that Milosevic and other indicted war criminals be sent to The Hague. It remains to be seen, however, whether all Western governments will press Belgrade on this, especially since they have lost much potential leverage through early recognition. Some have already hinted that they are in no hurry to push Belgrade on the extradition of Milosevic. Whatever its specific policies toward Serbia may prove to be, Washington is probably well advised to work closely with Brussels and let the EU take the lead. First, many European leaders feel that, despite the fact that the U.S. was forced to take the initiative to end the conflicts in Bosnia and Kosova, time has come for the EU to show that it can manage many of the continent's problems itself. The Bush policy team has already indicated that the U.S. would like its European allies to take more responsibility on the continent. Serbia might be one good place to start. A second reason is certain cultural differences that mitigate against particularly warm ties between the U.S. and Serbia. There is a deeply rooted anti-Americanism among many Serbs, particularly--but not only--among intellectuals. It largely stems from traditional small-power resentment against those who are stronger and larger. Added to this is a spicy dash of the Balkan quality known as "inat," or spiteful defiance. The hostility is not always rational and it antedates Milosevic. It will not go away easily, if at all. There is also a near-religious devotion among many Serbs to Russia, despite the fact that in practice Moscow has often been anything but Belgrade's friend. This popular Serbian attitude toward Russia should be noted in Washington because for many Serbs it is automatically bound up with their image of the U.S. There is a tendency in Serbia (and elsewhere in the Balkans) to see the hand of the great powers everywhere in the region's affairs. Commentators speculate on "dark forces" at work and on "geopolitics." Given this cultural predilection to regard the Balkans as a devil's workshop of the powers, there is a knee-jerk reaction among many Serbs to view the U.S. as "the enemy of my Russian friend." Dealing with this mind set is a problem Washington does not need. It is probably best left to the EU, especially since many people in Serbia often look to Germany and some other EU states as the Land of Milk and Honey to be respected and emulated. Washington will nonetheless need to make the political point that it is involved in the region and is part of a broader effort at promoting security, prosperity, and democracy. Should it fail to do so, there is likely to be real uneasiness in some parts of the peninsula, particularly in Kosova, Albania, and Croatia. While pursuing a policy of hard-headed detente with the new "Not-Milosevic" leaders in Belgrade, the U.S. should not forget that it has friends and allies in the Balkans who look to it for leadership and support. 05-01-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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