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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 236, 00-12-07

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 236, 7 December 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIA, ISRAEL DISCUSS MIDDLE EAST PEACE
  • [02] ARMENIA, INDIA TO EXPAND ECONOMIC COOPERATION
  • [03] NEW DISPUTE THREATENS ARMENIAN MAJORITY PARLIAMENT BLOC
  • [04] AZERBAIJANI CORRUPTION WHISTLE-BLOWER ACCUSED OF MURDER
  • [05] GEORGIA TO APPEAL TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OVER RUSSIAN VISA ANOMALIES
  • [06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT THREATENS TO EXTEND STATE OF EMERGENCY
  • [07] ANOTHER SUSPECT ARRESTED IN GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION BID
  • [08] TURKISH BUS ATTACKED IN WESTERN GEORGIA
  • [09] U.S. DIPLOMAT UNABLE TO MEET WITH KAZAKH PRESIDENT
  • [10] KYRGYZSTAN REGISTERS UPSWING IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
  • [11] KYRGYZSTAN, UZBEKISTAN REACH AGREEMENT ON ENERGY, WATER RESOURCES
  • [12] TUBERCULOSIS SPREADING IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN
  • [13] UNHCR ASKS TAJIKISTAN TO ADMIT AFGHAN FUGITIVES
  • [14] EARTHQUAKE HITS TURKMENISTAN

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [15] SERBS IN MITROVICA BEAT UN POLICEMAN, 'ABDUCT' INTERPRETER
  • [16] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER CALLS FOR 'DIALOGUE' ON PRESEVO VALLEY
  • [17] YUGOSLAV LEADER SAYS PATIENCE HAS LIMITS IN PRESEVO
  • [18] KOSTUNICA PARDONS SERBIAN ATTEMPTED MURDER SUSPECTS
  • [19] SERBIAN OPPOSITION OUTLINES POST-ELECTION PLANS
  • [20] CROATIAN POLICE FREE MEDIA BOSS
  • [21] SLOVENIAN HUMAN TRAFFICKING SUSPECT ARRESTED IN CROATIA
  • [22] BIZARRE CASE OVER SLOVENIAN-CROATIAN BORDER CONTINUES
  • [23] BOSNIAN-YUGOSLAV RELATIONS ON HOLD
  • [24] ROMANIAN EXTREMIST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLAMS RIVAL...
  • [25] ...TRIGGERS INDIGNANT RESPONSE FROM PDSR
  • [26] ROMANIA BANS BEEF IMPORTS
  • [27] VORONIN NARROWLY FAILS TO BECOME MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT...
  • [28] ...WHILE CENTER-RIGHT LEADER CRIES 'FOUL PLAY'
  • [29] BULGARIAN ROMA SEEK PLEDGES AHEAD OF ELECTIONS

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [30] WHO'S BEHIND 'KUCHMA-GATE?'

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIA, ISRAEL DISCUSS MIDDLE EAST PEACE

    Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Navaf Massalha met with Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian in Yerevan on 6 December to discuss the Middle East peace process and how it is likely to impact on the historical Armenian quarter in East Jerusalem, RFE/RL's Yerevan Bureau reported. Massalha told RFE/RL that the Armenian leadership would prefer that the Armenian quarter remain within the Christian Quarter but will not seek any direct involvement in the peace process or side with either the Israelis or the Palestinians. Massalha quoted Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Levon Mkrtchian as saying that the Jerusalem Patriarchate of the Armenian Apostolic Church is the "legal party" in discussions on the quarter's future. LF

    [02] ARMENIA, INDIA TO EXPAND ECONOMIC COOPERATION

    On an official visit to India from 4-6 December, Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian met with Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee and with his Indian counterpart, Jasvant Singh, to discuss expanding economic and political cooperation, including within international organizations, Armenian agencies reported. The two foreign ministers also discussed the Karabakh and Kashmir conflicts. Oskanian also met with India's health minister to discuss cooperation in the pharmaceutical sector and in training medical specialists. LF

    [03] NEW DISPUTE THREATENS ARMENIAN MAJORITY PARLIAMENT BLOC

    The two parties aligned in the majority Miasnutiun parliamentary bloc, the Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) and the People's Party of Armenia (HZhK), failed on 6 December to reach agreement on a candidate to head the parliament's Finance and Economy Committee, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. That committee has in the past been headed by an HHK nominee, but the HZhK has made clear it will not endorse the HHK's proposed candidate, Gagik Minasian. Two other HHK deputies aspire to that position, one of whom, Vartan Bostanjian, is seen as enjoying the tacit support of the HZhK. In an interview with "Zhamanak" on 6 December, HZhK chairman Stepan Demirchian disclaimed any responsibility for the disagreement, which he blamed on the Republican Party. LF

    [04] AZERBAIJANI CORRUPTION WHISTLE-BLOWER ACCUSED OF MURDER

    Naval officer Djanmirza Mirzoev, who was dismissed after publicizing corruption within the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 2, No. 34, 26 August 1999), has been arrested and charged with the murder in April 1994 of the head of the country's Naval College, Turan reported on 6 December. Mirzoev sought unsuccessfully to register as a candidate for the November parliamentary elections. Over the past five years, he has been held in detention for questioning for a total of nine months; sympathizers have formed a committee to protect his rights. LF

    [05] GEORGIA TO APPEAL TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OVER RUSSIAN VISA ANOMALIES

    Georgia's ambassador to Moscow Zurab Abashidze told journalists on 6 December that Tbilisi plans to raise with the Council of Europe and the OSCE the legality of Moscow's decision to exempt residents of Georgia's breakaway Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from the visa requirement for Georgian citizens that took effect the previous day, Interfax reported. He characterized that decision as a violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Georgia refuses to allow the opening of Russian consulates in those regions to enable inhabitants to acquire a Russian visa if the requirement is extended to all citizens of Georgia. Abashidze also hinted that Tbilisi may retaliate by reneging on a tentative agreement reached with Moscow to transform the Russian military base in Abkhazia into a logistical and rehabilitation center for the Russian troops serving under the CIS's aegis as a peacekeeping force on the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. LF

    [06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT THREATENS TO EXTEND STATE OF EMERGENCY

    Addressing a government session on 6 December, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze said that the state of emergency imposed earlier that day in eastern Georgia could be extended countrywide in a bid to combat rising crime, Interfax and Caucasus Press reported. Shevardnadze said many of those crimes are committed at the instigation of "destructive forces" and foreign intelligence services. LF

    [07] ANOTHER SUSPECT ARRESTED IN GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION BID

    Sasha Zakaraia was arrested in the west Georgian town of Zugdidi on 6 December on suspicion of involvement in the failed February 1998 attempt to kill President Shevardnadze, Caucasus Press reported, citing the Georgian Interior Ministry. More than 20 people are currently on trial on charges related to that attack. LF

    [08] TURKISH BUS ATTACKED IN WESTERN GEORGIA

    Masked gunmen on 6 December opened fire on a Turkish passenger bus en route from Tbilisi to Istanbul after it failed to halt at a road-block in the Guria region of western Georgia, Caucasus Press reported. The driver and co- driver and two passengers were injured. LF

    [09] U.S. DIPLOMAT UNABLE TO MEET WITH KAZAKH PRESIDENT

    Stephen Sestanovich, who is adviser to the U.S. secretary of state on the Newly Independent States, was forced by adverse weather conditions on 6 December to cancel a planned flight from Astana to Almaty, where he was to have met with Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. In a telephone conversation, the two men discussed the prospects for bilateral relations, which Nazarbaev termed "one of the top priorities" in Kazakhstan's foreign policy. LF

    [10] KYRGYZSTAN REGISTERS UPSWING IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

    Kyrgyzstan's industrial output grew by 10.3 percent during the first 11 months of this year, compared with the same period in 1999, Interfax quoted Industry and Trade Minister Esengul Omuraliev as telling a press conference in Bishkek on 6 December. Industrial production in November 2000 was 21.5 percent higher than in November 1999. Omuraliev also noted that overall foreign trade turnover has increased year-on-year by an estimated 10 percent, while trade with Uzbekistan expanded by 35 percent in 2000. LF

    [11] KYRGYZSTAN, UZBEKISTAN REACH AGREEMENT ON ENERGY, WATER RESOURCES

    Omuraliev also told journalists in Bishkek on 6 December that he and his visiting Uzbek counterpart, Rustam Yunusov, signed an inter-governmental agreement in the Kyrgyz capital the previous day on water resources and energy supplies, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Under that agreement, the Uzbek government will supply heating and power plants in Bishkek next year with 700 million cubic meters of natural gas and another 525 million cubic meters for private consumers at a cost of $42 per 1,000 cubic meters. Kyrgyzstan will pay half that sum in cash and half in commodities. In addition, Uzbekistan will provide Kyrgyzstan with 200,000 tons of oil products. In return, Kyrgyzstan will provide Uzbekistan with 2.2 billion kWh of electricity. Agreement was also reached on restructuring Kyrgyzstan's estimated $2 million debt to Tashkent for previous gas deliveries. LF

    [12] TUBERCULOSIS SPREADING IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

    The incidence of tuberculosis in Kyrgyzstan's southern Djalalabad Oblast increased by 13 percent this year, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported, quoting a regional health official. Ninety-one people in the oblast have died of the disease this year. LF

    [13] UNHCR ASKS TAJIKISTAN TO ADMIT AFGHAN FUGITIVES

    Taslimur Rahman, who heads the Dushanbe office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, formally asked Tajik Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov on 5 December to allow an estimated 10,000 Afghans to enter Tajikistan, Asia Plus-Blitz reported on 7 December. The Afghans have taken refuge on islands in the River Pyandj, which marks the border between northern Afghanistan and Tajikistan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 December 2000). The Tajik government has reportedly not yet responded to the UNHCR's request. Also on 7 December, Muhammad Soleh Registoni, who is military attache at the Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe, told Asia Plus-Blitz that he opposes allowing the Afghans to enter Tajikistan. He argued that allowing them to do so could encourage a massive influx of Afghans that the Tajik authorities would be unable to cope with. In addition, Registoni pointed out, if Taliban supporters then occupy the refugees' homes, the latter will be unable to return to Afghanistan. LF

    [14] EARTHQUAKE HITS TURKMENISTAN

    An earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale shook southern Turkmenistan late on 6 December, Reuters reported. Chinese media reported that five people died and 11 were injured in the quake, but a Turkmen official denied it had caused either deaths or extensive damage. Also on 6 December, another tremor shook Baku, 11 days after the quake in Azerbaijan that claimed a total of 31 lives. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [15] SERBS IN MITROVICA BEAT UN POLICEMAN, 'ABDUCT' INTERPRETER

    UN police staged a pre-dawn inspection of suspected sites of weapons caches in Serb-held northern Mitrovica on 7 December, a police spokesman told Reuters. Police found a large quantity of weapons and arrested three people. The weapons haul included "11 AK-47 assault rifles, seven hand grenades, nine anti-tank rockets, two packages of plastic explosives, a rifle, a pistol and 1,500 rounds of ammunition. This is one of the largest weapons finds in Mitrovica," a KFOR spokesman said. As word of the raid spread, a crowd of at least 150 people gathered in Mitrovica, AP reported. Some members of the crowd stopped a UN police car, beat the policeman inside, and "abducted" his female Serbian interpreter. Police representatives are trying to negotiate her release. PM

    [16] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER CALLS FOR 'DIALOGUE' ON PRESEVO VALLEY

    Making an "unprecedented" visit to Kosova, Ilir Meta said in Prishtina on 6 December that "Kosova's final status must be decided by its citizens, because they are the ones who have to decide on their own fate, today and in the future," Reuters reported. Meta met with local leaders and with officials of the international community. He told the Kosova Transitional Council that the problems in the nearby Serbian Presevo valley must be solved through "dialogue and democratic means." Rada Trajkovic, who is a Serbian member of the council, said that Meta's visit is "not politically welcome" because Albania has not resumed diplomatic relations with Belgrade after a break in 1999. It was the Serbian position under Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic that foreign officials must obtain Belgrade's permission before visiting Kosova. Albanian President Rexhep Meidani and most other visiting foreign leaders have disregarded that preference (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 May 2000). PM

    [17] YUGOSLAV LEADER SAYS PATIENCE HAS LIMITS IN PRESEVO

    Yugoslav Prime Minister Zoran Zizic said in Bujanovac on 6 December that Serbian forces could "eliminate in one or two days" ethnic Albanian guerrillas from the demilitarized zone bordering Kosova. Zizic stressed that "we are patient, but of course we will not spend the entire winter under such a serious threat [from the fighters] if diplomacy does not succeed," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In related news, Macedonian Defense Minister Ljuben Paunovski called on NATO and the Yugoslav authorities to put an end to tensions in southwestern Serbia, MIC news agency reported from Skopje. Paunovski also appealed to Kosovar leaders to use their influence to end the violence. PM

    [18] KOSTUNICA PARDONS SERBIAN ATTEMPTED MURDER SUSPECTS

    Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica pardoned three Serbian men from the shadowy Serbian Liberation Army on 6 December. A military court under Milosevic sentenced them in April to terms of up to five years' imprisonment on charges of conspiring to carry out "hostile activities," including attempts on the lives of Milosevic and General Nebojsa Pavkovic, Reuters reported from Nis (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 April 2000). In November, the supreme military court reduced their sentences. Kostunica has repeatedly refused to grant an amnesty to the approximately 700 Kosovars held in Serbian jails since Milosevic's crackdown in the province in 1998 and 1999. PM

    [19] SERBIAN OPPOSITION OUTLINES POST-ELECTION PLANS

    Leaders of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) agreed in Belgrade on 6 December on the composition of the government in the event of their expected victory in the 23 December Serbian parliamentary elections. There will be five deputy prime ministers, who will be selected as representatives of their respective political parties. Cabinet ministers will be appointed on the basis of their expert qualifications, the BBC's Serbian Service reported. The interior minister will be an individual who has no links to either a political party or the police, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Opposition leader Zoran Djindjic said that the DOS pledges a clean break with the past. "We think the overall system of power intensively built up here over the past decade, and generally over the past 50 years, should be dismantled," Reuters reported. Djindjic is expected to head the new government. Polls suggest that the DOS is likely to take some 60 percent of the vote. PM

    [20] CROATIAN POLICE FREE MEDIA BOSS

    Police released media boss Ninoslav Pavic from detention on 6 December, saying that they do not have enough evidence to continue to hold him, dpa reported. Police detained Pavic and several other men earlier in the week on suspicion that they tried to form an illegal cartel to monopolize the private media (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 December 2000). Referring to the new daily "Republika," which broke the story of the alleged cartel plot, Pavic said: "The dirty spy affair with third-grade newspapers has finished. I think we shall soon see who stood behind all this and that the rule of law will win out." Pavic's lawyers said they are looking into possibilities of wrongdoing against their client by unnamed employees of the Interior Ministry. A ministry spokesman said that an investigation into the alleged cartel is continuing. Prime Minister Ivica Racan on 5 December denied that the arrests were prompted by the story in the new daily, which belongs to Pavic's rivals. PM

    [21] SLOVENIAN HUMAN TRAFFICKING SUSPECT ARRESTED IN CROATIA

    Police on the Croatian-Slovenian border arrested Simon Eberl on 6 December and held him in Varazdin, pending extradition to his home country. Italy has issued an international arrest warrant for Eberl, who is suspected of being a major figure in human trafficking between the Balkans and western Europe, Hina reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 November 2000). PM

    [22] BIZARRE CASE OVER SLOVENIAN-CROATIAN BORDER CONTINUES

    Croatian police took Josko Joras from his home near the Dragonja River to the customs office in Pula, where officials demanded that he pay customs duty on a washing machine that he recently took to his home, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 6 December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2000). Joras, who is a town councilman in the Slovenian town of Piran, argues that he does not have to pay duty on the washing machine because his home is in Slovenia and not in Croatia. PM

    [23] BOSNIAN-YUGOSLAV RELATIONS ON HOLD

    Bosnian Deputy Foreign Minister Husein Zivalj told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service on 6 December that he does not expect Sarajevo and Belgrade to establish diplomatic relations before the end of the year 2000. Zivalj said that prior to the December elections, it will be politically difficult for DOS to distance itself from Belgrade's demand that Sarajevo drop its charges against Yugoslavia for genocide and aggression before the Hague- based war crimes tribunal. As a precondition to establishing diplomatic ties, Belgrade wants Sarajevo to agree that all bilateral issues will be solved between the two countries themselves without recourse to any outside body. PM

    [24] ROMANIAN EXTREMIST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SLAMS RIVAL...

    Speaking on television on 6 December, Greater Romania Party (PRM) leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor sharply criticized his rival in the 10 December runoff and claimed that a poll conducted by the Institute of Marketing Research (IMAS) shows he is leading the contest, with 56 percent backing. IMAS director Alin Teodorescu on 7 December refuted that claim. Tudor accused Party of Social Democracy in Romania Chairman Ion Iliescu of having onced served Moscow and now having "changed masters." He also accused Iliescu of having been responsible for the bloodshed caused in December 1989 in order to legitimize his "illegal" order to execute Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu and of having encouraged corruption during his 1990-1996 presidency. Iliescu's seeking a new presidential mandate is unconstitutional, he added. MS

    [25] ...TRIGGERS INDIGNANT RESPONSE FROM PDSR

    In a 7 December press release, the PDSR said Tudor is making the same accusations against Iliescu that incumbent President Emil Constantinescu has often made, proving that Tudor is a "true rightist." Observers say that the PDSR is trying to harness the protest vote that mostly went to the PRM on 26 November. Speaking on Romanian Radio on 6 December, Iliescu said the PRM's electoral propaganda is trying to depict him as in league with the parties that were voted out of power. He denied that the PDSR intends to make a pact with those formations. Iliescu also appealed to officers and soldiers, among whom the PRM has strong support, saying he identifies with their "patriotism." Iliescu has refused to debate with Tudor on national television. MS

    [26] ROMANIA BANS BEEF IMPORTS

    The Agriculture Ministry on 6 December announced it is banning imports of beef and beef products from EU and other countries where BSE (mad cow disease) has been registered. It listed Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Great Britain, France, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain among EU countries and Cyprus, Israel, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein among non-EU states, Romanian Radio reported. MS

    [27] VORONIN NARROWLY FAILS TO BECOME MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT...

    The latest round of voting in the Moldovan presidential elections ended on 6 December with Party of Moldovan Communists Vladimir Voronin only two votes short of the necessary 61 to become president. The center-right candidate Pavel Barbalat again garnered 35 votes, and five votes were declared invalid. The next round is scheduled for 21 December, and there are hints that the center-right alliance might choose another candidate for that round. Voronin said he will run and win on 21 December. MS

    [28] ...WHILE CENTER-RIGHT LEADER CRIES 'FOUL PLAY'

    Party of Christian Democratic People's Party leader Iurie Rosca said the support for Voronin demonstrates that there are defectors from among the center-right. He called on the members of that alliance to refrain from voting on 21 December in order to expose those who back Voronin. Rosca said it is preferable to have President Petru Lucinschi dissolve the parliament than have a Communist elected as head of state. MS

    [29] BULGARIAN ROMA SEEK PLEDGES AHEAD OF ELECTIONS

    Eighteen Bulgarian organizations representing Roma joined forces on 6 December to call on political parties to pledge to improve the Roma's situation in that country. Rumian Sechkov, head of the recently created National Council of Roma, told AFP that Roma will support only those parties in the April 2001 elections that agree to include members of the minority on their lists. Parties seeking Roma support must also pledge to work for the passage of legislation on employing Roma in the civil service, police, army and local government, as well as "in all sectors of the economy." Sechkov said that companies that fail to support such quotas must be sanctioned by the government. The council also called on Bulgaria to provide Romany-language television programs, in line with the European Convention on Protecting Minorities, which Sofia ratified last year. MS

    [C] END NOTE

    [30] WHO'S BEHIND 'KUCHMA-GATE?'

    By Taras Kuzio

    On 16 September, 31-year-old Heorhiy Gongadze, a leading journalist and editor of "Ukrayinska pravda," went missing on his way home in Kyiv. "Ukrayinska pravda" had published insider material dealing with corruption at the highest level of the Ukrainian state. In early November, a farmer found a decapitated and mutilated body, believed to be that of Gongadze, in a village south of Kyiv.

    Some three weeks later, Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz, who is a bitter opponent of President Leonid Kuchma, told the Central European Initiative summit in Budapest that he had been given taped conversations conducted between Kuchma, head of the presidential administration Volodymyr Lytvyn, and Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Kravchenko during the two months prior to Gongadze's disappearance. During those conversations, the officials discussed how to get rid of Gongadze, Moroz said. The Socialist leader repeated that claim in the Ukrainian parliament four days later.

    Moroz said that the tapes were given to him by an employee of the government Communications Department of the Security Service who has since requested political asylum abroad for both himself and his family. "The president was worried by [Gongadze's] activities, gave instructions, and controlled their implementation," Moroz told a stunned parliament. He added that he believes the recorded conversations "show that the president ordered his interior minister to have Gongadze kidnapped." Kuchma and his head of staff, Lytvyn, have protested their innocence, and Lytvyn has launched a libel action against Moroz. Most deputies believe the tapes are genuine, a viewpoint that is likely to become more widespread.

    The plot is likely to embrace other leading figures, besides Kuchma. As "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported, only Ukraine's oligarchs (whom the newspaper identifies and whose assets it enumerates in its 6 December issue) would not be afraid to organize the tapping of the president's private conversations. The Ukrainian media has long documented a growing dissatisfaction with President Kuchma among those oligarchs who financed his election campaign; in particular, they feel betrayed by Kuchma's toleration of Viktor Yushchenko's government.

    Ukraine's first reformist government is supported by 100 center-right deputies of the 250 non-leftist majority that controls the parliament. It is making great strides toward structural reform, privatization and increased transparency and has also paid all pension, social security and wages arrears. Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshchenko is cleaning up the energy sector by replacing barter schemes with cash payments, taking measures to prevent the theft of Russian gas, reducing Ukraine's debt for Russian energy supplies, and holding open tenders for the privatization of gas distribution companies.

    Tymoshenko is well suited to undertake the reform of the highly corrupt energy sector because she herself was held positions in that sector for a long time. Hence, she is also the target of so much criticism from media controlled by Ukraine's oligarchs. But despite Ukraine's energy indebtedness and the theft of Russian gas, the current situation benefits Russia and its own corrupt oligarchs since it means Ukraine is closely bound to Russia. Ukraine's oligarchs have long attempted to block plans to export Caspian oil through the not-yet-completed Odesa oil terminal, a project backed by the GUUAM (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Moldova) regional group and the Yushchenko government.

    These reforms, particularly in the energy sector, are eroding the corrupt economic base of leading oligarchs, such as Oleksandr Volkov, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Hryhoriy Surkis (the tapes include anti-Semitic insults against Surkis). Medvedchuk, who is first deputy parliamentary speaker and head of the United Social Democrats, has set his sights on the post of prime minister and is the presidential hopeful of the oligarchs in 2004. Four years of successful governmental reforms and a growing economy would make Yushchenko a strong presidential challenger to Medvedchuk, whose financial base would have been badly weakened by 2004 if the planned reforms are carried out.

    The Ukrainian and Russian media have speculated that Russia is likely to be a strong supporter of the alleged Ukrainian oligarchs' plot because, as in the case of Belarus, Russia's priority is geopolitics, not reform. Greater devotion to domestic reform will lead to Ukraine's integration with the West. Kuchma hinted at this during the Minsk CIS summit when he said that the tapes were "a provocation, possibly with the participation of foreign special services," by which he presumably meant Russia.

    It is no coincidence that the Russian prosecutor-general has opened a new case against Deputy Prime Minister Tymoshenko for allegedly bribing a Russian deputy defense minister four years ago, when she headed the United Energy Systems. The question inevitably arises as to why the case was opened only now.

    The tapes will damage Ukraine's international reputation. The episode will taint Kuchma as Ukraine's version of Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. "Turning Ukraine into another Belarus is the right way for Russia to establish long-term political and economic control over our country," "Tzerkalo Tyzhden/Nedeli" lamented. Aid from international financial institutions, which was suspended after a disinformation campaign against Yushchenko earlier in the year that claimed he allegedly misled the IMF, may be halted once more, just when the IMF, the EBRD, and World Bank have begun to praise the government's performance and reform program.

    What is more, the tapes represent the gravest threat to Kuchma personally since he began his first term as president in July 1994. The manner in which this information has been disclosed suggests that those who arranged the taping of the conversations are interested not in affirming the rule of law, press freedom, or reforms but in bringing down the pro-reform and pro- Western government of Yushchenko and closely aligning Ukraine with Russia.

    The author is a visiting fellow at the Watson Institute of International Studies, Brown University.

    07-12-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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