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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 129, 00-07-07Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 129, 7 July 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMEN ON NEW KARABAKH MEDIATION MISSIONThe French, U.S., and Russian co-chairmen of the OSCE MinskGroup met in Baku on 2-3 July with Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev and Foreign Minister Vilayet Guliev, both of whom termed the group's efforts to mediate a solution to the Karabakh conflict inadequate, ITAR-TASS and Turan reported. On 3 July, the co-chairmen traveled to Stepanakert, where they discussed the ongoing cease-fire and measures to expedite regional economic development with Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and the enclave's foreign minister, Naira Melkumian. The co-chairmen then met with Armenian leaders in Yerevan on 5 July. French co-chairman Jean-Jacques Gailard told journalists in Yerevan the previous day that a new peace plan is currently being drafted, but he did not divulge details, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. LF [02] VOTE FOR KARABAKH PARLIAMENT CHAIRMAN TRIGGERS OPPOSITIONPROTESTThe nine opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation--Dashnaktsutiun (HHD) deputies to the newly- elected parliament of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic boycotted the vote for a new parliament speaker on 5 July to protest the failure to guarantee the secrecy of that ballot, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The 13 deputies from the Democratic Artsakh Union (ZhAM), which supports President Ghukasian, and seven of the nine independent deputies nonetheless supported Oleg Yesayan's re-election as speaker The ZhAM and the HHD are also at odds over the number of parliamentary committees the latter will chair. LF [03] AZERBAIJAN ADOPTS ELECTION LAWThe Azerbaijani parliamentadopted the controversial law on elections in the second reading on 4 July and in the third and final reading the following day, Turan reported (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 26, 30 June 2000). During the second reading, thepro-presidential majority rejected President Aliev's proposals, based on consultations with the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, to change from 100:25 to 75:50 the ratio of deputies elected under the majoritarian and proportional systems, respectively, and to reduce from 12 to six months the period between the official registration of a political party and its eligibility to participate in elections. Opposition parties criticized the law as undemocratic and anti-constitutional and are considering a boycott of the poll. The Azerbaijan National Independence Party has recalled its representatives on the Central Electoral Commission in protest. LF [04] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT VISITS AUSTRIAPresident Aliev heldtalks in Vienna on 3-5 July with Austrian President Thomas Klestil and with Austrian Foreign Minister and OSCE chairwoman-in-office Benita Ferrero-Waldner, ITAR-TASS and Turan reported. Aliev termed his talks with Ferrero-Waldner "productive," although he said she is not adequately informed about the Karabakh conflict, according to Turan. Aliev was also scheduled to hold meetings with OSCE and International Atomic Energy Agency officials. LF [05] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SAYS SITUATION 'UNDER CONTROL'In histraditional weekly radio address on 3 July, Eduard Shevardnadze conceded that unnamed forces are intent on trying to destabilize the internal political situation, but he affirmed that the Georgian leadership is fully aware of those attempts and has the situation under control, Caucasus Press reported. He vowed that the toughest possible measures will be taken against "enemies of the Georgian state." Shevardnadze also announced that the celebrations of 3000 years of Georgia's statehood, which were to have been held later this year, have been postponed for financial reasons. LF [06] NATO SECRETARY-GENERAL VISITS CENTRAL ASIALord Robertsonheld talks in Astana on 3-4 July with Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev and Defense Minister Sat Tokpakbaev. He told journalists on 4 July after those talks that the Central Asian states' diplomatic ties to Russia should be balanced by cooperation with the West, adding that the end of the Cold War means that they no longer have to choose between those two alternatives, Reuters reported. He noted that NATO and Kazakhstan have common concerns, including terrorism and drug trafficking. And he commented that Nazarbaev agreed on the need for closer cooperation with NATO, RFE/RL's Astana bureau reported. On 5-6 July Robertson met in Tashkent with Prime Minister Utkir Sultanov and Defense Minister Yurii Akzamov to discuss expanding Uzbekistan's participation in NATO's Partnership for Peace program, according to dpa. On 6 July, Robertson met in Bishkek with Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev, Reuters reported. He again called on the Central Asian states to "work together to make the region a secure place." LF [07] KAZAKH OIL FIND MAY ACCELERATE PIPELINE CONSTRUCTIONPresident Nazarbaev told journalists in Atyrau on 4 July thatthe Kashagan oil field being developed by the Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company (OKIOC) contains huge quantities of good quality oil, Reuters reported. Kazakhoil President Nurlan Balghymbaev had earlier estimated the Kashagan reserves at over seven billion tons. Anatolii Shatalov, deputy director of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, said on 5 July that the estimates of reserves at Kashagan may impel the consortium to accelerate completion of that pipeline, which is currently intended to go into operation in November 2001, ITAR-TASS reported. LF [08] KYRGYZSTAN, UZBEKISTAN DISCUSS BORDERS, AGREE ON VISASUzbekForeign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov and his visiting Kyrgyz counterpart, Muratbek Imanaliev, signed an agreement in Tashkent on 4 July under which citizens of each country will require a visa to visit the other, Reuters and RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Residents of regions adjoining the common border will, however, be exempt from that requirement, which Kamilov said may be "only temporary." The two ministers also discussed the formal delimitation of their 1,300- kilometer border, along which 140 locations are disputed. LF [09] TAJIKISTAN HOSTS 'SHANGHAI FIVE' SUMMITMeeting in Dushanbeon 5 July, the presidents of Russian, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan signed a joint statement pledging to cooperate in fighting terrorism, religious extremism, and drug-trafficking and agreed to establish a joint anti- terrorism center in Bishkek, Reuters and dpa reported. The statement also repeated the commitment, added to last year's summit declaration, to refrain from intervention in one another's domestic political affairs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 August 1999). Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov, who for the first time attended the summit as an observer, expressed satisfaction that the "Shanghai Five" group, originally set up in 1996 to address border issues, has expanded its focus to play an increasing role in promoting regional security, ITAR-TASS reported. LF [10] CHINESE PRESIDENT VISITS TAJIKISTAN...Jiang Zemin and TajikPresident Imomali Rakhmonov held talks in Dushanbe on 3-4 July, focusing on bilateral cooperation, demarcating their common border, and regional security, Asia Plus-Blitz reported. The two presidents expressed satisfaction at the continued increase in economic cooperation and bilateral trade and signed a joint declaration on the further development of good-neighborly relations and a protocol . Rakhmonov stressed his support for the People's Republic of China vis-a-vis Taiwan and noted that the Chinese and Tajik positions on the need for a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict coincide. LF [11] ...AND TURKMENISTANVisiting Ashgabat on 5-7 July, Jiangdiscussed political and economic cooperation with his Turkmen counterpart, Saparmurat Niyazov, ITAR-TASS reported. The two leaders signed an agreement under which Beijing will lend Turkmenistan 100 million yuan ($55 million) and discussed the possibility of building a 5,700 kilometer gas export pipeline from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to western China. Niyazov told journalists on 6 July that beginning in 2001, Turkmenistan will export 700,000 tons of liquefied gas annually by rail to China. Jiang reportedly declined to accept an honorary philosophy degree from the Turkmen State University but did accept the gift of a thoroughbred Akhal- tekke horse. LF [12] UZBEKISTAN DENIES JAILED POET MISTREATEDIn a statementissued in Tashkent on 4 July, the Uzbek Interior Ministry rejected a Human Rights Watch report released last month claiming that Mamadali Makhmudov's health has deteriorated as a result of being tortured in jail, Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 June 2000). The ministry said that Makhmudov's health is satisfactory and that he has not requested medical treatment. LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] MILOSEVIC SEEKS EIGHT MORE YEARS IN OFFICEParliamentarydeputies from parties loyal to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic approved on 6 July three amendments to the federal constitution aimed at strengthening his power. The first amendment states that the president will be elected directly- -instead of by the parliament, as is now the case--for up to two terms of four years each. The second amendment specifies that members of the upper house will be elected directly by popular vote, instead of being elected in equal numbers by the Serbian and Montenegrin parliaments, as current legislation states. This will greatly reduce the influence of Montenegro, whose population is approximately only one-tenth of Serbia's. The third amendment allows the parliament to appoint or sack individual ministers. At present, the cabinet must be approved or dismissed as a body. This amendment will enable Milosevic to intimidate or remove any minister who has become politically inconvenient. PM [14] WHAT LIES BEHIND MILOSEVIC'S AMENDMENTS?The 6 July debateand vote on the amendments came as a surprise to the opposition, since they had been announced by Milosevic's supporters only the previous day. His supporters say the moves are aimed at strengthening democracy. The amendments will enable Milosevic to seek two more terms in office--his current mandate runs out in 2001--and give him more leverage in dealing with his rivals in Montenegro and in the federal government. By strengthening his own position and reducing the role of Montenegro, Milosevic is placing pressure on the government of Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic either to resist him or proceed with plans for a referendum on independence. Djukanovic knows, however, that his supporters in the international community do not want him to declare independence. The result could be that Djukanovic is forced into a politically untenable position. Some observers suggest, moreover, that Milosevic is anxious to remain in office so as to reduce the likelihood of his being sent to The Hague, where the international criminal tribunal has indicted him for war crimes. PM [15] SERBIAN OPPOSITION ANGERED AT CHANGES TO YUGOSLAVCONSTITUTIONSeveral leading opposition politicians said in Belgrade on 6 July that the amendments are in keeping with what they called Milosevic's long-standing desire to hold on to power, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Vladeta Jankovic of the Democratic Party of Serbia told London's "The Daily Telegraph" that "it is shameful that the constitution is being changed for the sake of just one man." The Serbian Renewal Movement's leader Vuk Draskovic said in Pirot that the opposition must boycott the legislative and local elections widely expected in the fall so as not to give them legitimacy, the "Neue Zuercher Zeitung" reported. Observers note that public opinion polls give Milosevic between 25 percent and 33 percent of the popular vote, were elections to be held, with Draskovic trailing well behind him. Each of the other opposition leaders would receive far fewer votes than Draskovic, the polls suggest. PM [16] MONTENEGRIN PARLIAMENT TO MEET IN EMERGENCY SESSIONTheMontenegrin legislature will hold an emergency session in the evening of 7 July to discuss how to respond to the passage of the amendments, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service. The Montenegrin government withdrew its recognition of the federal government after pro-Milosevic Montenegrin leader Momir Bulatovic became federal prime minister in 1998. Speaking in Podgorica on 6 July, Djukanovic called the passage of the amendments "illegal." He added that Milosevic's move "calls into question the future of the constitutional system," arguing that Montenegro will find unspecified "mechanisms" to defend its position. The Montenegrin parliament's Deputy Vice President Predrag Popovic said that Montenegrins who voted for the amendments are "traitors." In Belgrade, the Democratic Party's leader Zoran Djindjic argued that the passage of the amendments is tantamount to the "end of the federation" between Serbia and Montenegro, "Vesti" reported. Miodrag Vukovic, who is an adviser to Djukanovic, told AP in Podgorica that the federal parliament has destroyed the federation. He added that Montenegro "is now forced into making [unspecified] inevitable moves." PM [17] U.S. SLAMS YUGOSLAV CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTSStateDepartment spokesman Richard Boucher said in Washington on 6 July that "there appears to be a grotesque effort under way by Milosevic to stifle prospects for a democratic, peaceful change in Yugoslavia.... He is changing the rules because he cannot win fairly now. He is stripping away legal formalities behind which he's hidden. And the choice, we think, for the people of Serbia and for his coalition is stark: It's either him or democracy in Serbia," an RFE/RL correspondent reported. PM [18] THACI 'SUSPENDS' WORK WITH UN ADMINISTRATION IN KOSOVA...Hashim Thaci, who was the leader of the former KosovaLiberation Army and is now a prominent Kosovar Albanian politician, said in Prishtina on 4 July that he is "temporarily suspending" cooperation with the UN's civilian advisory council, led by Bernard Kouchner. He said his move is in protest at Kouchner's recent compromise with moderate Kosovar Serb leaders, which prompted the Serbs to end their boycott of the advisory council (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 July 2000). Thaci argued that Kouchner's compromise "opens the door" to the partition of Kosova into ethnically-based cantons. He added that he is impatient with what he called Kouchner's failure to end the de facto partition of Mitrovica, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 6 July. In Tirana, the Albanian government said in a statement that it also fears that Kouchner's compromise could lead to the "cantonization" of Kosova. PM [19] ...BUT RUGOVA STAYS ON BOARDIn Prishtina on 6 July, theDemocratic League of Kosova (LDK), which is led by Thaci's arch-rival Ibrahim Rugova, said in a statement that it will continue to work with Kouchner's council. The LDK also called for the protection of Kosova's ethnic minorities, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The moderate Serbian National Council said in a statement that Thaci's move is an "attempt to put pressure" on Kouchner's civilian administration, "Vesti" reported on 6 July. Kouchner told his advisory council that he has always taken the side of those who suffer and that it is Kosova's Serbs who are currently suffering, "Vesti" reported on 7 July. PM [20] TENSIONS EASED IN SHTERPCEIn Mitrovica on 6 July, KFORfreed from prison a Serb from Shterpce who was suspected of taking part in the recent destruction of the UN office there (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 June 2000). In Shterpce, KFOR agreed to provide escorts for convoys into Serbia following an agreement with moderate Serb leaders, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM [21] ARE FORMER YUGOSLAV WAR CRIMINALS MAKING A PROFIT IN THEHAGUE?The Hague-based tribunal is investigating persistent but unconfirmed press reports in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere that attorneys for indicted war criminals pay their clients kick-backs. The lawyers are allegedly hired by some clients on the condition that they pay those clients some 20 percent to 40 percent of their attorney's fees, London's "The Independent" reported on 7 July. Such salaries range up to $110 per hour and are paid out of the tribunal's budget. PM [22] ROMANIA IN ELECTIONEERING FEVERPrime Minister MugurIsarescu does not intend to join any political party and believes his "political neutrality" could be advantageous if he heads the next coalition, government sources cited by Mediafax said on 3 July. Also on 3 July, the Union of Rightist Forces endorsed the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic proposal to back President Emil Constantinescu for another term in office and Isarescu as premier. But divisions have emerged in the National Liberal Party (PNL). PNL Deputy Chairman Dinu Patriciu said a PNL- Alliance for Romania electoral alliance was " just a personal viewpoint" of PNL First Deputy Chairman Valeriu Stoica and that "common sense" calls for endorsing a Constantinescu-Isarescu ticket. Ion Iliescu, leader of the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), said on 5 July PDSR First Deputy Chairman Adrian Nastase is the party's candidate for the premiership. MS [23] MOLDOVA TO BECOME PARLIAMENTARY REPUBLIC...With vote of 92to five, Moldova's 101-members of parliament have approved an amendment to the constitution transforming the country into a parliamentary republic, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported on 5 July. In an earlier reading of the bill, which took place on the same day, only four votes were cast against. The next president is to be elected by the legislature, instead of by popular vote. The parliament also voted to increase the government's prerogatives and enable it to rule by issuing decrees that have the power of law. Deputy Sergiu Burca of the Christian Democratic Popular Party, who submitted the bill, said the legislation was a response to President Petru Lucinschi's attempts to "usurp power" by transforming Moldova into a full-fledged presidential republic. MS [24] ...DESPITE PRESIDENTIAL LAMENTSLucinschi on 6 July saidthe amendment is likely to plunge the country into chaos and could hamper efforts to settle the Transdniester conflict, but he added that he will not exercise his veto right. Such an attempt could in any case have been overridden by a two-thirds majority in the legislature. Lucinschi said, however, that he may call a referendum asking citizens if they want the country to become a parliamentary republic. MS [25] BULGARIA EASES REGULATIONS ON REAL ESTATE PURCHASES BYFOREIGNERSThe parliament on 6 July eased regulations for the purchase of real estate by foreigners, BTA reported. The legislature abolished the provision whereby foreigners were required to obtain permission from the Finance Ministry to purchase real estate. The move is aimed at attracting more foreign investment. Also on 6 July, the government decided to abolish custom duties on some 480 food products from the EU countries in an effort to conform with EU regulations. Bulgaria and the EU also agreed on duty-free imports of large quantities of pork, poultry, lamb. sausages, tomatoes, cheese, and other products, AP reported. MS [C] END NOTE[26] THE MYTH OF RUSSOPHONE UNITY IN UKRAINEBy Taras KuzioIn the second round of Ukraine's July 1994 presidential elections, the incumbent, Leonid Kravchuk, won the majority of votes west of the River Dnipro and his main challenger, Leonid Kuchma, the majority east of that river. The larger urban and industrial centers of eastern Ukraine gave Kuchma a modest lead over Kravchuk. Since those elections, the prevailing view among many scholars and policymakers in the West has been that Ukraine is clearly divided into two linguistic halves: "nationalist, pro-European, and Ukrainophone" western Ukraine and "Russophile, pro-Eurasian and Russophone" eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately, this framework for understanding post- Soviet Ukraine has failed when it has been applied to the Kuchma. When elected in 1994, Kuchma was an eastern Ukrainian Russophone, and it was predicted that he would return Ukraine to Eurasia. Instead, Ukrainian foreign policy has remained consistent throughout the 1990s, regardless of the language spoken by the president or his support base. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs defined this policy in 1996 as "Integration into Europe, Cooperation with the CIS," which continues to rule out Ukraine's participation in the military and political structures of the CIS. Under Kuchma, Ukrainian foreign policy has shifted westward more decisively, especially with regard to NATO. Ukraine has also been instrumental in preventing Russian regional hegemony through its membership in the pro-Western GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) regional group, which in effect split the CIS into two groups of an equal number of states. Using language as the sole or main criterion by which to analyze post-soviet Ukrainian developments has proved to be flawed for two reasons. First, it assumed that Ukrainians belonged to either one or the other linguistic camp-- Ukrainophones or Russophones. Most observers argued that language data in the 1989 Soviet census were flawed and that the actual number of Ukrainophones was far smaller than the number of Russophones in Ukraine. Moreover, a large proportion of Ukrainians, perhaps even the majority, are bilingual and therefore cannot be characterized as either purely Ukrainophone or Russophone. Kuchma himself, for example, uses Ukrainian in public but has a Russian wife and almost certainly speaks Russian in the private sphere. Which of the two linguistic groups does he belong to? Data from an Intermedia National Survey in late 1999 conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology asked "In which language is it easier for you to talk?" Of the respondents, 44.2 percent said in Ukrainian and only 38.7 percent said in Russian. In response to the question "which language do you speak at home?" 47.8 percent said Ukrainian, 36.3 percent Russian, and 14.4 percent both. Second, there has been no evidence of the mobilization of Russophones as a group or lobby. Indeed, there is strong evidence that Russophones in Crimea, Odesa, the Donbas, Kyiv and western Ukraine have very distinct separate identities and have developed different attitudes toward the Ukrainian language, nation-building, and foreign policy. A recent study found that Russophones in Odesa and the Donbas exhibit "language retention," while in Kyiv and Lviv they favor assimilation or "language integration." A large number of Kyivites, for example, continue to use Russian as their main language but have not opposed sending their children to Ukrainian language schools, which now account for 80 percent of all schools in the city. A recent poll conducted in Kyiv by the National Democratic Initiatives Center among a representative sample of Kyivites was aimed at gauging the attitudes of Russian speakers and demonstrated this lack of uniformity among Russophones. Five main results emerged from the poll. First, 53 percent of Kyivites speak Russian always or most of the time. Of these respondents, 70 percent were brought up in a Russian-language environment. Second, half of these Russophones believe that the "Ukrainian language is an attribute of Ukrainian statehood." They feel that its usage in all spheres in the capital city does not reflect its state status and that there is still a need to raise its prestige. Moreover, according to these Russophones, state officials should take exams in the Ukrainian language to prove their proficiency. Only 30 percent of Russophones in Kyiv disagreed with these views. Three, two-thirds of Russophones in Kyiv feel that their rights as Russian speakers are not infringed on within a Ukrainian language information space. Four, 70 percent of Russophones in Kyiv believe that Ukrainian citizens should know the Ukrainian language well and 44 percent believe that they personally should improve their Ukrainian because it is important for them to do so. And five, only 43 percent of Russophones in Kyiv agreed raising the status of Russian to second state language. The organizers of the poll concluded that only up to one-third of Russophones in Kyiv are opponents of Ukrainianization. Meanwhile, 50-55 percent use Russian but remain positively disposed toward increased use of the Ukrainian language and do not see such a development as in any way harming their national dignity. Contemporary Ukrainian studies await further research into the myth of Russophone unity in Ukraine. Clearly the situation in Ukraine is far more complicated than a simplistic division of the country into two linguistic groups , one oriented toward Europe (Ukrainophones) and the other toward Eurasia (Russophones). If Ukraine's elites wish to maintain an independent state, they have no alternative but to continue with a policy of "Integration into Europe, Cooperation with the CIS." The author is a post-doctoral fellow at Yale University. 07-07-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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