RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 74, 00-04-13

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 74, 13 April 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS POLITICAL SITUATION STABILIZING...

[02] ...DOWNPLAYS AZERBAIJANI STATEMENTS

[03] KARABAKH JOURNALIST SENTENCED

[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION REPEATS DEMAND FOR NEW ELECTION LAW...

[05] ...AS UN SAYS IT CANNOT SUPERVISE AZERBAIJANI POLL

[06] AZERBAIJAN ELECTION OFFICIAL CONDEMNS PLANNED KARABAKH ELECTIONS

[07] KAZAKHSTAN TO ASK RUSSIA TO INCREASE OIL EXPORT QUOTA

[08] NEW CHARGES BROUGHT AGAINST FORMER KAZAKH PREMIER

[09] RUSSIAN EMISSARY DISCUSSES REGIONAL SECURITY IN KYRGYZSTAN

[10] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT ASSESSES ELECTIONS AS FREE AND FAIR

[11] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION ACCUSE GOVERNMENT OF AVOIDING DIALOGUE

[12] 'RELIGIOUS EXTREMIST' ARRESTED IN TAJIKISTAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[13] CROATIAN GOVERNMENT SETS TERMS OF COOPERATION WITH HAGUE

[14] NO INDICTMENTS AGAINST TOP CROATIAN BRASS?

[15] NATO OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA REFUGEE RETURNS...

[16] ...WHILE KOUCHNER IS LEARY

[17] BELGRADE WEEKLY WILL NOT PAY FINE

[18] DJINDJIC BLAMES SERBIAN SOCIETY FOR ITS PROBLEMS

[19] MILOSEVIC'S MONTENEGRIN ALLIES ABOUT TO SPLIT?

[20] NATIONALIST SWEEP IN BOSNIA CONTINUES

[21] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS BUDGET DEBATE

[22] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WARNS AGAINST ECOLOGICAL NEGLECT

[23] JOINT ROMANIA-HUNGARIAN PEACE KEEPING UNIT ENDS EXERCISE

[24] RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR WANTS CLOSER ECONOMIC TIES WITH MOLDOVA

[25] BULGARIAN MINISTER ENCOURAGED AFTER MEETING NATO AMBASSADORS

[C] END NOTE

[26] WHAT FUTURE FOR CROATIA'S HDZ?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS POLITICAL SITUATION STABILIZING...

that the political situation in the country "is stabilizing day

by day" and no longer constitutes an obstacle to the resumption

of talks on resolving the Karabakh conflict, RFE/RL's bureau in

the Armenian capital reported. One month earlier, Oskanian had

said domestic political tensions had brought the mediation

process to a standstill (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 March 2000).

Oskanian said that the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group have

not set a date for their next visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan,

but he predicted that the peace process will gather momentum in

the next few months. He confirmed media speculation that the

possibility of a territorial exchange between Armenia and

Azerbaijan (the so-called "Goble Plan") was raised during talks

between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani

counterpart, Heidar Aliev, but said the Armenian side did not

accept it as a basis for negotiation, Noyan Tapan reported. LF

[02] ...DOWNPLAYS AZERBAIJANI STATEMENTS

dismissed an Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry statement the previous

day criticizing as "destabilizing" the recent joint military

maneuvers in Armenia by Russian and Armenian troops, RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 April 2000).

He also said that Yerevan "does not take seriously" statements by

a group of retired Azerbaijani military officers calling for a

new war to return Nagorno-Karabakh to the control of the

Azerbaijani central government (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 March

2000). Oskanian said such statements do not reflect the official

position of the Azerbaijani leadership. LF

[03] KARABAKH JOURNALIST SENTENCED

sentenced journalist Vahram Aghajanian to 12 months in prison

following a one-day hearing, RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent

reported. Aghajanian was accused of slandering Anushavan

Danielian, prime minister of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh

Republic, in an article published in November 1999 in the

Karabakh opposition newspaper "Tasnerort nahang." Aghajanian's

lawyer said the charge of slander was based on "false facts"

presented by prosecutors. He added that the judge refused to

question a key witness who could confirm the information

contained in the article. LF

[04] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION REPEATS DEMAND FOR NEW ELECTION LAW...

10 opposition parties, told Turan on 12 April that the congress

plans to convene a protest action in Baku on 29 April unless the

parliament begins discussing a new draft election legislation

prepared by the opposition. The Democratic Congress argues that

the laws on elections and the Central Election Commission

preclude holding democratic and fair elections. OSCE Office for

Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Director Gerard

Stoudmann was quoted by Turan earlier this month as saying that

his organization is working with the Azerbaijani authorities on

drafting a new law on the election commission, which he hopes

will be ready by mid-May. Stoudmann said it is "extremely

important" that the new law provide for representation on the

commission of opposition political parties, according to Turan.

LF

[05] ...AS UN SAYS IT CANNOT SUPERVISE AZERBAIJANI POLL

in Azerbaijan has issued a statement explaining that that

organization cannot become directly involved in the organization

of the Azerbaijani parliamentary elections due in November 2000,

Turan reported on 12 April. Several left-wing opposition parties

had called earlier this year for that poll to be held under the

aegis of the UN. They argued that doing so is the only way to

ensure that the vote is free and fair. The UN statement said that

organization is willing to provide electoral assistance only if

the Azerbaijani government or election bodies request such help.

LF

[06] AZERBAIJAN ELECTION OFFICIAL CONDEMNS PLANNED KARABAKH ELECTIONS

has termed the 18 June parliamentary elections in the

unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic "a political show" that

violates the Azerbaijani Constitution, Turan reported on 12 April

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 April 2000). Veliev predicted that no

country will recognize the poll as valid. LF

[07] KAZAKHSTAN TO ASK RUSSIA TO INCREASE OIL EXPORT QUOTA

journalists in Astana on 12 April that Kazakhstan will ask Russia

to increase by 1 million tons the amount of oil it may export via

Russian pipelines this year, Interfax reported. This would bring

the total to 11 million tons. Qapparov said that oil should be

exported via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, which has an annual

throughput capacity of 11.5 million tons. He added that a

feasibility study is being prepared on reconstruction of the

pipeline at an estimated cost of $30 million to increase

throughput capacity to 15 million tons. Visiting Astana on 11

April, Russian Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Vladimir Stanev

and Transneft President Semen Vainshtok proposed to Kazakhstan's

Premier Qasymzhomart Toqaev that Kazakhstan export up to 3

million tons of oil annually via the newly-completed Chechen

bypass pipeline. Doing so would entail shipping the oil by barge

across the Caspian to Makhachkala. LF

[08] NEW CHARGES BROUGHT AGAINST FORMER KAZAKH PREMIER

tax police have opened another criminal case against former Prime

Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, Reuters reported on 12 April.

Kazhegeldin is accused of abusing his position in 1995 by

temporarily granting a sports club exemption from the tax on

imported goods. That exemption reportedly deprived the Almaty

city budget of "hundreds of millions of tenge," according to

Kazakhstan state television. Kazhegeldin, who left Kazakhstan

early last year, is also wanted on charges of tax evasion, money-

laundering, and illegal weapons possession. LF

[09] RUSSIAN EMISSARY DISCUSSES REGIONAL SECURITY IN KYRGYZSTAN

Sergei Yastrzhembskii met with President Askar Akaev to discuss

joint measures by Russia and the states of Central Asia to combat

terrorism, religious extremism, and drug-trafficking. He argued

that there is a link between the fighting in Chechnya, the

assassination attempts in 1998 and 1999 against the presidents of

Georgia and Uzbekistan, and last summer's incursion of Islamic

fighters into Kyrgyzstan, attributing those events to

"forces...that would like to see new Afghanistans arising in

post-Soviet Central Asia," according to Reuters. Yastrzhembskii

affirmed that as a "strategic partner" and a signatory to the CIS

Collective Security Pact, Russia would "immediately" assist

Kyrgyzstan in the event of a new terrorist incursion. He also

expressed approval of Kyrgyzstan's treatment of its dwindling

ethnic Russian minority, according to ITAR-TASS. LF

[10] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT ASSESSES ELECTIONS AS FREE AND FAIR

government issued a statement on 12 April describing the

parliamentary elections on 20 February and 12 March as fair,

democratic, and lawful, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The

statement also deemed as lawful the arrest of opposition Ar-Namys

party chairman Feliks Kulov and accused unnamed opposition

politicians and parties of using illegal methods in pursuit of

their objectives. Also on 12 April, some 100 protesters continued

their picket in Bishkek to demand Kulov's release and the

annulment of the election results. LF

[11] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION ACCUSE GOVERNMENT OF AVOIDING DIALOGUE

Kyrgyz opposition politicians, human rights activists, and

journalists wrote to Jerzy Wienclaw, the OSCE representative in

Bishkek, on 11 April to complain that the Kyrgyz authorities are

trying to restrict any dialogue with the opposition, RFE/RL's

bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. They said that the Kyrgyz

leadership wants to restrict the talks to a discussion of

amendments to the election law, rather than conducting a broad

dialogue. The signatories called on the OSCE not to sponsor such

a narrow round-table discussion. LF

[12] 'RELIGIOUS EXTREMIST' ARRESTED IN TAJIKISTAN

on 12 April arrested and charged with anti-government propaganda

a man whom they identified as a member of the banned Hizb-ut-

Tahrir Islamic extremist party, Asia Plus-Blitz reported, citing

the Tajik Interior Ministry. The man's name is given as

Sharifullo Aliev, and he is said to be a resident of Gafurov in

Leninabad Oblast. He was detained for disseminating Islamic

literature calling for the overthrow of the Tajik government and

the founding of an Islamic state. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[13] CROATIAN GOVERNMENT SETS TERMS OF COOPERATION WITH HAGUE

Prime Minister Ivica Racan said in Zagreb on 13 April

that his government has prepared a declaration of cooperation

with the Hague-based international war crimes tribunal, AP

reported. Racan stressed that his government wants to cooperate

with the tribunal, as demanded by the international community,

but without damaging the legacy of the 1991-1995 war against

Serbian rebels and the Yugoslav army. Racan added: "We cannot

allow our independence war to be sullied by hiding certain war

crimes and their perpetrators." Officials of the Hague tribunal

recently began excavations in several caves in Gospic, where

Croatian forces or paramilitaries are believed to have dumped

bodies of Serbian civilians after killing them in late 1991.

Milorad Pupovac, who is a leader of Croatia's Serbian minority,

said that probably more than 100 Serbs died in the killings,

"Jutarnji list" reported on 13 April. Commanders Tihomir

Oreskovic, Mirko Norac, and Tomislav Mercep may have played key

roles in the killings, "Globus" reported on 7 April. PM

[14] NO INDICTMENTS AGAINST TOP CROATIAN BRASS?

Stjepan Ivanisevic said that on her recent visit to Zagreb, the

tribunal's chief prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, denied press

reports that there are secret indictments against top Croatian

officers, RFE/RL'S South Slavic Service reported on 12 April.

During Del Ponte's visit, government spokesmen would neither

confirm nor deny reports that she was looking for specific

documents about wartime Generals Ante Gotovina, Ivan Cermak, Ivan

Korade, and Mirko Norac (see "RFRE/RL Newsline" 5 April 2000). PM

[15] NATO OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA REFUGEE RETURNS...

of the Atlantic alliance told Reuters in Brussels on 12 April

that NATO expects some 25,000 Serbs to return to Kosova "in the

coming months." He noted that many Serbian refugees who fled to

Serbia are less than happy with their treatment there. Many such

individuals now prefer to "put their faith in the international

community and the economic lift-off that will eventually happen"

in Kosova," the official added. He admitted that security will be

a problem in some areas where interethnic relations are

particularly tense, but he added that "we can't delay this

forever or until everything's perfect. We have got to start

somewhere." NATO will closely monitor the refugees to ensure that

they are, in fact, Serbs from Kosova. Alliance officials will

also try to keep out "people controlled by Belgrade," the

official added. He noted that NATO expects some 18,000 ethnic

Albanians to return to Kosova "in the coming months." PM

[16] ...WHILE KOUCHNER IS LEARY

civilian administration in Kosova, said in Prishtina on 12 April

that the governments of Australia and unnamed Western European

countries should not force refugees from Kosova to go home "too

early," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Kouchner warned

that there is no purpose in sending refugees back to Kosova

before the infrastructure to support them is in place. PM

[17] BELGRADE WEEKLY WILL NOT PAY FINE

of the three directors of the independent weekly "Vreme," told a

press conference on 12 April that his publication does not have

the money to pay the several fines imposed by the government,

"Danas" reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 April 2000). In a

related development, "Danas" noted that a court case against the

newspaper will open on 10 May. The state-run Tanjug news agency

and its director, Dusan Djordjevic, are suing the independent

daily for "misuse of free, public information" and several other

offenses. The Milosevic regime has long sought to hound the

independent media out of existence by bringing court cases

against them and imposing stiff fines for violating Serbia's

draconian media laws. PM

[18] DJINDJIC BLAMES SERBIAN SOCIETY FOR ITS PROBLEMS

Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic told Vienna's "Die Presse"

of 13 April that Serbia's main problem is that its society has

neither grown nor developed during the 10 years that President

Slobodan Milosevic has been in power. The authorities have had no

trouble in politically manipulating such a society, he added.

Djindjic stressed that observers place too much blame for

Serbia's problems on divisions within the opposition. No

opposition can do much if "millions of people do not know whether

they want to fight for their rights or not." He called for less

talk about divisions within the opposition and more attention by

the opposition to the social and economic problems of ordinary

people. The main single obstacle to opposition success is not

Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic or any other

opposition figure but rather Milosevic, Djindjic added. PM

[19] MILOSEVIC'S MONTENEGRIN ALLIES ABOUT TO SPLIT?

daily "Vijesti" reported on 12 April that two top officials of

the Socialist People's Party (SNP) will soon quit that

organization, which is the most important Montenegrin political

party loyal to Milosevic. Predrag Bulatovic and Zoran Zizic are

unhappy about a decision by party leaders to contest upcoming

elections in Herceg Novi together with two-pro Milosevic parties

based in Serbia. Bulatovic and Zizic feel that the SNP does not

need to work with the United Yugoslav Left (JUL) of Mira Markovic

or Vojislav Seselj's Radicals. Meanwhile in Niksic, Montenegrin

President Milo Djukanovic said he believes that reports of a

split in the SNP are greatly exaggerated, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. PM

[20] NATIONALIST SWEEP IN BOSNIA CONTINUES

returns from 128 out of 145 municipalities in the 8 April local

elections give Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party the

lead in 51 areas. The Croatian Democratic Community is ahead in

24 localities, the Muslim Party of Democratic Action in 21, and

the Social Democrats in 17, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported on 12 April. PM

[21] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS BUDGET DEBATE

Isarescu told the two chambers of the legislature on 12 April

that the 2000 budget is geared toward halving inflation to 27

percent and at promoting 1.3 percent growth, while keeping the

deficit at 3 percent of GDP, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported.

Isarescu warned against increasing expenditures beyond the

envisaged 3 percent deficit, saying this may affect Romania's

ability to service its foreign debt. He added that by staying

within those limits, Romania will demonstrate that the

credibility of the international Standard & Poor's rating agency

is questionable (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 April 2000). In

related news, Mediafax reported that in its semi-annual "World

Economic Outlook" released on 12 April, the IMF predicts 1.5

percent growth in the Romanian economy in 2000 but notes that the

country's economy as a whole continues to be "fragile." MS

[22] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WARNS AGAINST ECOLOGICAL NEGLECT

Constantinescu told a 12 April meeting of the National Defense

Supreme Council that if ecological accidents become a regular

recurrence, Romania's chances of integration into the EU will

be negatively affected, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported.

The council approved a number of "urgent measures" for the

prevention and combating of ecological disasters.

Constantinescu said Romania must continue bringing its ecology

legislation into line with European standards but added that

implementation of existing laws, rather than new legislation,

is the main problem for Romania to cope with. MS

[23] JOINT ROMANIA-HUNGARIAN PEACE KEEPING UNIT ENDS EXERCISE

recently-established Romanian-Hungarian peace-keeping

battalion has ended its first military exercises, which took

place in the Arad county, Mediafax reported on 12 April. The

battalion simulated freeing hostages and "negotiating with

mercenary troops." The exercise was conducted under the

auspices of the OSCE. The battalion is to become operative in

the fall. MS

[24] RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR WANTS CLOSER ECONOMIC TIES WITH MOLDOVA

that Russia wants to increase its economic ties with Moldova,

Infotag reported. He said there are many "unused reserves" in

those ties and praised a recent agreement to reschedule Moldova's

debt to Russia as well as a proposal to introduce contract prices

for Russian gas. Petrovsky said he did not discuss with any

Moldovan officials the possibility of establishing a Russian

military base in Transdniester (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 April

2000). He said Moscow respects Moldova's Constitution, which

states that it is a neutral country. VG

[25] BULGARIAN MINISTER ENCOURAGED AFTER MEETING NATO AMBASSADORS

that NATO's assessment of Bulgaria's progress in its efforts to

gain membership in the alliance is "encouraging," BTA reported.

Mihailova was speaking after a meeting with NATO ambassadors in

Sofia. She said the assessment stresses Bulgaria's policy in the

Balkans, the country's support for NATO's bombing campaign in

Yugoslavia last year, and the country's political and economic

stability. Defense Minister Boyko Noev, who also attended the

meeting, said Bulgaria does not need any funding from NATO's

accession programs to reform its army. On 14 April, the North

Atlantic Council is scheduled to discuss Bulgaria's progress in

Brussels. VG

[C] END NOTE

[26] WHAT FUTURE FOR CROATIA'S HDZ?

Things are changing quickly in Croatian politics. Perhaps

the biggest question is: where will the once-mighty Croatian

Democratic Community (HDZ) find itself when the dust settles?

Most Croats welcomed the recent change of government and the

end of an authoritarian political culture. After the coalition of

six parties came to power in January, scandals and revelations

about old intrigues involving the HDZ elite began to appear

almost daily in the press.

The HDZ itself has begun to split, and it is unclear whether

Franjo Tudjman's party will be in a position to play any kind of

constructive opposition role in the near future. If open feuding

between leading figures of the party continues, the HDZ will be

hard-pressed to create a new political strategy and a readily

identifiable image. In that case, there will be no clear

political alternative to the governing coalition. Should Croatia

lack a robust opposition, its transition to a truly Western-style

democracy will be delayed.

Former Foreign Minister Mate Granic founded a new party, the

Croatian Democratic Center (HDC), in March. Granic, formerly

known as the leader of the so-called liberal wing in the HDZ,

wanted to distance himself from the HDZ's right wing, which is

lead by Ivic Pasalic. Pasalic is of Herzegovinian origin and was

Tudjman's most influential adviser in his final years.

Vladimir Seks and Branimir Glavas from Slavonia play key

roles in the HDZ, too. In 1989 they founded the party, together

with Franjo Tudjman, and are now two top hard-liners.

Significantly, even the right wing of the HDZ is no longer

united. Pasalic told "Vecernji list" of 30 March that the

political alliance between Glavas and Seks is shaky. As for

Pasalic and Seks, they have long been feuding in public.

But the birth of the HDC and mistrust within the right wing

of the HDZ are not the only problems for the party. There is also

a faction that calls itself the "Club of the Founding Fathers."

Pasalic mentioned that the existence of this faction is not in

line with party regulations. He even fears that old-timers like

Josip Manolic or Hrvoje Sarinic could take control of the faction

and try to destroy the party from within.

Both me were once very prominent in HDZ affairs. Manolic

left the party in 1994, together with Stipe Mesic, who is now

president of the country and until recently was a member of the

People's Party. The main reasons for their departure were

Tudjman's policies against the Muslims in Bosnia and his tendency

to act as if the Croatian state were his personal property.

Sarinic left the HDZ in 1998. He was opposed to the power of the

hard-liners, Zagreb's growing international isolationism, and the

misuse of the secret service for political ends.

Since Tudjman's death in December, a fight has become public

between some of the hard-liners--who are often dubbed the

Herzegovinian lobby-- and the moderate "technocrats." The feud is

being played out in a press dispute over the so-called "white

book" about INA, Croatia's biggest oil company.

The white book is really a pamphlet, the authors of which

are unknown. It alleges the existence of a Russian-Jewish

conspiracy against the Croatian oil sector. Davor Stern, who was

once director-general of INA and is of Jewish origin, belongs to

the technocratic faction of the HDZ. He interprets the white book

as an attempt by the HDZ's right wing to destroy the party's more

moderate elements. In a recent interview with "Globus," Stern

said that the goal of the white book is to show that not only the

hard-liners are prone to scandals and corruption.

The white book affair reflects the internal situation of the

party and the difficulties it will encounter rising above its

past and developing a new, modern image. A party congress at the

end of this month is expected to deal with such questions and

decide on a new leadership. If the process of self-destruction

goes on, it seems unlikely that HDZ will be able to deal with

these key issues and mount an effective opposition to the

coalition.

And the government has already shown itself to be in need of

a serious opposition. The Istrian Democratic League (IDS), which

belongs to the governing coalition, wants the government to

support the troubled Istarska Banka, though the National Bank

found "significant irregularities" in its activities. When Prime

Minister Racan was still in opposition to Tudjman, he often

criticized the HDZ for its "political meddling" in the banking

sector. Now he has to prove to what extent he can stay true to

his principles, despite pressures from the IDS. And if he does

not, then at least some of the parties in the coalition should

call him and the IDS to account.

Pointing out governmental hypocrisy is also part of the role

of a healthy opposition--in this case, the HDZ. President Mesic

is another possible check on shady dealings by the government. He

and Racan are currently locked in a dispute over how many of

Tudjman's sweeping presidential powers should be transferred to

the government or parliament. This discussion, too, clouds the

political landscape. Parliamentary speaker and head of the

Peasants' Party Zlatko Tomcic recently told "Globus: "These are

no easy questions."

The author is a free-lance writer based in Munich

(christian.buric@gmx.de)

13-04-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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