RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 62, 00-03-28

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 62, 28 March 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] SOUTH CAUCASUS LEADERS COMMENT ON PUTIN'S ELECTION...

[02] ...WHILE CENTRAL ASIAN PRESIDENTS OFFER CONGRATULATIONS

[03] WAR VETERANS CONDEMN ATTACK ON KARABAKH PRESIDENT

[04] ALLIES DEMAND RELEASE OF DETAINED KARABAKH EX-DEFENSE

[05] ARMENIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY CHAIRMAN NOT TO RUN FOR PARLIAMENT

[06] OIL COMPANIES IMPLICATED IN 1993 OUSTER OF AZERBAIJANI

[07] AZERBAIJAN HOLDS REPEAT LOCAL ELECTIONS

[08] AZERBAIJAN'S DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES REPORT OF ATTACK,

[09] CIA DIRECTOR DISCUSSES TERRORISM THREAT IN GEORGIA

[10] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY DENIES FOREKNOWLEDGE OF BID TO

[11] UN ENVOY HOLDS TALKS IN ABKHAZIA

[12] KAZAKH OPPOSITION PARTY RECEIVES PERMISSION TO STAGE

[13] KYRGYZ PROTESTS CONTINUE

[14] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CHAIRS SECURITY COUNCIL SESSION

[15] NEW TAJIK PARLIAMENT CONVENES

[16] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ORDERS DESTRUCTION OF TRANSLATION OF KORAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[17] ETHNIC ALBANIAN GUERRILLAS STILL ACTIVE

[18] MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT SAYS MILOSEVIC TRYING TO OUST HIM

[19] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER SAYS PODGORICA NEEDS OWN POLICE

[20] 'SERBIAN ROBIN HOOD' EMERGES IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA

[21] DODIK SAYS HE SAVED BRIDGES, REPUBLIKA SRPSKA

[22] BRCKO REFUGEES CRITICIZE DELAYED RETURNS

[23] BANK SCANDAL HITS CROATIAN COALITION

[24] IMF APPROVES ROMANIA'S EXTENSION REQUEST

[25] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT DENIES INSULTING U.S.

[26] ROMANIAN 'HOT LINE AFFAIR' PROBED BY PROSECUTOR-GENERAL

[27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT REJECTS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN

[28] BULGARIA, ROMANIA SIGN DANUBE BRIDGE AGREEEMENT

[29] TURKISH PRESIDENT PRAISES RELATIONS WITH BULGARIA

[C] END NOTE

[30] A REPUTATION DESTROYED

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] SOUTH CAUCASUS LEADERS COMMENT ON PUTIN'S ELECTION...

27 March, characterized Russian President-elect Vladimir

Putin as "a dignified leader" and expressed the hope that his

election will reinforce the "strategic partnership" between

Armenia and Russia, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Nino

Burdjanidze, who chairs the Georgian parliament's commission

for international relations, told Caucasus Press that Putin's

election does not automatically mean that bilateral relations

will improve, but she expressed the hope that they will. In

Baku, Novruz Mamedov, head of the international relations

division within the presidential administration, told Turan

that the Azerbaijani leadership hopes Putin will take steps

to strengthen and broaden Russia's relations with Azerbaijan.

LF

[02] ...WHILE CENTRAL ASIAN PRESIDENTS OFFER CONGRATULATIONS

presidents of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Nursultan Nazarbaev

and Askar Akaev, both sent congratulatory telegrams to Putin

on 27 March, Interfax reported. In a telephone conversation

the same day, Nazarbaev also wished Putin success, adding

that "democratic presidential elections on an alternative

basis are a historic event in the life of the Russian

people," according to ITAR-TASS. Tajik President Imomali

Rakhmonov congratulated Putin by telephone on his "impressive

and unequivocal success," while in a telephone conversation,

Uzbek President Islam Karimov stressed the significance of

Putin's election victory not only for Russia but for the

entire international community, ITAR-TASS reported. LF

[03] WAR VETERANS CONDEMN ATTACK ON KARABAKH PRESIDENT

statement issued in Yerevan on 27 March, the Yerkrapah Union

of veterans of the Karabakh war condemned the 22 March

attempt to assassinate Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the

unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, as "a crime against

national interests," Noyan Tapan reported. The statement

registered concern at attempts by unnamed public figures and

organizations to divert public attention from the need to

solve the 27 October parliament shootings by focusing on

"protecting defendants' rights." The presidential commission

on human rights, which is chaired by former dissident Paruyr

Hairikian, last week issued a report noting the mistreatment

of suspects by the military investigators and calling for the

investigation to be transferred to the Prosecutor-General's

Office. The Yerkrapah statement vowed to "make every effort"

to prevent political tension and destabilization and

expressed support for the Armenian government. LF

[04] ALLIES DEMAND RELEASE OF DETAINED KARABAKH EX-DEFENSE

A group of Armenian parliamentary deputies were in

Stepanakert on 26 March to meet with Anoushavan Danielian,

prime minister of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,

in an attempt to secure the release from custody of former

Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan, according to Snark

on 27 March as cited by Groong. Babayan was taken into

custody on 22 March on suspicion of involvement in the attack

on Ghukasian earlier that day. Danielian and Nagorno-Karabakh

Foreign Minister Naira Melkumian both characterized the

situation in the enclave on 27 March as calm, ITAR-TASS

reported. LF

[05] ARMENIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY CHAIRMAN NOT TO RUN FOR PARLIAMENT

Demirchian, who was killed in the 27 October parliament

shootings, told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 27 March that he

has no intention of standing in the 21 May by-elections in

three Yerevan constituencies. Observers had speculated that

Stepan Demirchian aspires to the post of parliament speaker.

He had been named in January as interim leader of the

People's Party of Armenia, which his father had founded in

1998. Demirchian said he intends to concentrate on the

"enormous work" to be done to strengthen the party's

structures. LF

[06] OIL COMPANIES IMPLICATED IN 1993 OUSTER OF AZERBAIJANI

British Petroleum and Amoco were instrumental in

instigating the June 1993 insurrection that resulted in the

flight from Baku of Azerbaijan's President Abulfaz Elchibey

and the return to power of former Azerbaijan Communist Party

First Secretary Heidar Aliev, the "Sunday Times" reported on

26 March citing Turkish intelligence sources. Those sources

say the purpose of the intervention was to prevent the

imminent signing of a deal with Azerbaijan on the

exploitation of Caspian oil fields in order to renegotiate

more favorable terms. The British weekly also reported that

those oil companies, together with Mobil, Exxon and Turkey's

TPAO, had subsequently offered to supply Aliev with arms and

mercenaries in the war with Armenia for control of Nagorno-

Karabakh. LF

[07] AZERBAIJAN HOLDS REPEAT LOCAL ELECTIONS

took place on 26 March in 75 municipalities where voting in

the 12 December municipal elections was annulled or

invalidated owing to procedural violations, Turan and ITAR-

TASS reported. Some 1,300 candidates contested the repeat

vote, which according to the Central Electoral Commission was

valid in 74 municipalities. In the remaining district, voter

participation was below the minimum 25 percent. The

opposition Musavat Party issued a statement on 27 March

condemning what it termed numerous violations during the

previous day's vote. The CEC press office said the same day

no reports had been received of procedural violations.

Council of Europe observers noted "great changes" in the

conduct of the poll and vote count compared with December,

Turan reported on 28 March. LF

[08] AZERBAIJAN'S DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES REPORT OF ATTACK,

The Press Service of the Azerbaijan Defense Ministry

has denied an Armenian news agency report that Azerbaijan

lost 10 men in a 21 March attempt to cross the northern

sector of the Line of Contact between Armenian- and

Azerbaijani-controlled territory, Turan reported on 27 March

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 March 2000). Press Ministry head

Ramiz Melikov had told MPA news agency three days earlier

that on 21 March Armenian forces had opened fire on the

Kedabek district using large-caliber machine-guns and

grenade-launchers. LF

[09] CIA DIRECTOR DISCUSSES TERRORISM THREAT IN GEORGIA

Tenet met in Tbilisi on 27 March with Georgian President

Eduard Shevardnadze and Georgian National Security Minister

Vakhtang Kutateladze to discuss regional security issues and

joint measures to counter the threat of international

terrorism, Caucasus Press and ITAR-TASS reported. LF

[10] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY DENIES FOREKNOWLEDGE OF BID TO

Opposition Batumi Alliance member Vakhtang

Bochorishvili told Caucasus Press on 27 March that there is

no truth to claims by captured Chechen field commander Salman

Raduev that Bochorishvili attended a session of the Congress

of Peoples of the Caucasus at which plans were discussed to

assassinate President Shevardnadze (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27

March 2000). Bochorishvili added that Raduev "is mad" and his

statements should not be taken seriously. LF

[11] UN ENVOY HOLDS TALKS IN ABKHAZIA

Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Abkhazia, met in Sukhum

on 27 March with Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba,

Caucasus Press reported. In a subsequent interview with ITAR-

TASS, Boden expressed regret that the protocol on exchanging

prisoners signed on 3 February by the premiers and power

ministers of Georgia and Abkhazia has not been implemented

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 and 21 February 2000). Also on 27

March, the newly appointed head of the UN Observer Mission to

Abkhazia, Akhmed Anis Bajwa, met with Abkhaz Defense Minister

Vladimir Mikanba, who accused the UN of "double standards" in

failing to take action to curtail the activities of Georgian

guerrillas operating in Abkhazia, Caucasus Press reported. LF

[12] KAZAKH OPPOSITION PARTY RECEIVES PERMISSION TO STAGE

Representatives of the Republican People's

Party of Kazakhstan (RNPK) told RFE/RL's Almaty correspondent

on 28 March that the city authorities have for the first time

granted them permission to hold a demonstration. The aim of

the gathering, scheduled for 30 March, is to repeat the

demand first advanced by RNPK chairman Akehan Kazhegeldin

last year for a dialogue between the opposition and the

country's authorities (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November and

7 December 1999). Participants will also lobby for amendments

to the election law and constitution and for oblast governors

to be elected by popular ballot, rather than appointed by the

president. LF

[13] KYRGYZ PROTESTS CONTINUE

ongoing picket in Bishkek on 27 March to demand the annulment

of the results of the 12 March parliamentary runoff, RFE/RL's

bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. A total of nine people

have now embarked on a hunger strike to press for that and

related demands (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 March 2000).

Arrested opposition Ar-Namys Party chairman Feliks Kulov, who

is also on hunger strike to protest his detention, was

refused a meeting with his lawyer on 27 March. An Interior

Ministry official told RFE/RL the same day that Kulov's

brother Marsel, who was deputy head of Interpol's Kyrgyzstan

office, had been pressured into submitting his resignation.

LF

[14] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CHAIRS SECURITY COUNCIL SESSION

chaired a session of the Security Council on 25 March, two

days after visiting the Kyrgyz-Tajik frontier to assess the

situation there, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital

reported. Representatives of the Defense, Interior, and

National Security Ministries briefed participants on

preparations to repel an anticipated cross-border attack on

Kyrgyz territory this spring. Akaev warned that mercenaries

from Chechnya could join forces with radical Islamists in

Afghanistan and Tajikistan for that purpose, Interfax

reported. Security Council secretary General Bolot Djanuzakov

said that an estimated 5,000 "terrorists" close to the banned

Islamic Hizbut Tahir party could attempt to invade Kyrgyzstan

this summer with the aim of flooding Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,

and Tajikistan with drugs produced in Afghanistan. LF

[15] NEW TAJIK PARLIAMENT CONVENES

on 27 March, the lower house of the Tajik parliament elected

engineer Saidullo Khairullaev as its chairman, ITAR-TASS

reported. Deputies also elected the chairs of nine parliament

committees and commissions, according to Asia Plus-Blitz.

Addressing the session, President Rakhmonov expressed the

hope that the parliament will become "one of the basic

foundations of our society," Reuters reported. A joint

session of both chambers of the new parliament is scheduled

for next month. LF

[16] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ORDERS DESTRUCTION OF TRANSLATION OF KORAN

Koran into the vernacular is "evil" and should be burned,

Keston News Service reported on 27 March. The translation was

originally undertaken at the request of the Turkmen

government by Mullah Hodja Ahmed Orazgylych and writer

Atamyrat Atabaev, and the completed work was approved by

Turkmenistan's chief mufti, Nasrullah ibn Ibadullah, and

published in 1995. Orazgylych was arrested in February 2000

after criticizing the Niyazov's decree on New Year

celebrations and accused of "swindling." He was released and

sent into internal exile earlier this month after asking

Niyazov's "forgiveness." LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[17] ETHNIC ALBANIAN GUERRILLAS STILL ACTIVE

Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac (UCPMB)

continue to wear uniforms and carry out training exercises,

despite a recent pledge by their political leaders that they

will conduct their struggle by political means only (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 24 March 2000). Members of the UCPMB also

continue to cross the border between Kosova and Serbia as

well as use the "neutral zone" between KFOR and Serbian

forces for their own military purposes, "The Washington Post"

reported on 28 March. Political representatives of the UCPMB

told journalists that it will take time before they can

persuade militants to respect the political leaders' pledge

to U.S. diplomats to end the armed struggle. Some militants

published a letter in "Koha Ditore" saying they will not give

up their fight, the Washington daily continued. An unnamed

U.S. official stressed that his government is determined to

see that the UCPMB lives up to the agreement. PM

[18] MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT SAYS MILOSEVIC TRYING TO OUST HIM

Djukanovic told the Sarajevo Muslim daily "Avaz" of 27 March

that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has only two

options in his struggle against the Montenegrin leaders:

Milosevic must either oust the Djukanovic leadership by force

and replace it with his own allies or he must "exclude"

Montenegro from the Yugoslav federation. "The New York Times"

on 28 March quoted Djukanovic as saying that Milosevic has

set up a 1,000-strong special police unit within the

Montenegro-based Second Army of the Yugoslav Army. Those

police are in fact a paramilitary unit" loyal to Milosevic.

The Montenegrin president added that "over 50 percent of them

have criminal records. They are not being [kept] to protect

the country but to overthrow the [Montenegrin] government."

PM

[19] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER SAYS PODGORICA NEEDS OWN POLICE

Milosevic Socialist People's Party of Montenegro, told "The

New York Times" of 28 March that Djukanovic "has 20,000

police, [which are] 10,000 more than he should have. The

danger is that this guy [might use] these people to create a

conflict" with Milosevic's supporters or the army.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic replied, however,

that the government needs a strong police force of its own to

deter armed provocations by Milosevic or his Montenegrin

supporters. Vujanovic added that Montenegro's government must

defend itself in the absence of "security guarantees" from

NATO. PM

[20] 'SERBIAN ROBIN HOOD' EMERGES IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA

Arsenijevic "Maki" told Bosnian Serb television in Banja Luka

that "Milosevic's regime is like a house of cards which would

crumble in a couple of days if Serbs rebel" against him, AP

reported on 28 March. Maki also described his recent escape

from Serbian police, during which he "was so well disguised

that not even my wife recognized me," he said. The flamboyant

painter led violent anti-government protests in Valjevo in

1999, for which he was imprisoned (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12

January 2000). His recent escape has captured public

imagination, prompting the independent weekly "Vreme" of 18

March to dub him the "Serbian Robin Hood." Maki's interview

in Banja Luka was his first public appearance since his

escape from a Belgrade hospital. PM

[21] DODIK SAYS HE SAVED BRIDGES, REPUBLIKA SRPSKA

Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said in Visegrad that he

successfully appealed to NATO leaders during the 1999 bombing

campaign not to attack bridges on the Drina River linking

Bosnia and Serbia. He added that he had refused appeals by

Milosevic to mobilize the Bosnian Serb army and attack NATO

peacekeepers, "Vesti" reported on 28 March. Dodik also told

"Avaz" that he and his supporters recently resisted moves by

Milosevic to undermine his government by prompting members of

the Socialist Party to leave the coalition. Dodik added that

his government will soon prepare legal documents governing

the upcoming appointment of Muslims as "advisers" to

unspecified ministries. The Muslims will work on "practical

questions," the prime minister added. PM

[22] BRCKO REFUGEES CRITICIZE DELAYED RETURNS

which is an association of primarily Muslim and Croatian

refugees from Brcko, have complained to Ambassador Robert

Farrand, the international community's representative for

Brcko, that few Muslims and Croats have been allowed to go

home in recent months, "Oslobodjenje" reported on 28 March.

Brcko was under Serbian control from 1992 until 1999, when

the international community placed it under joint authority

of the Republika Srpska and the mainly Croatian and Muslim

federation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 August 1999). PM

[23] BANK SCANDAL HITS CROATIAN COALITION

leader Ivan Jakovcic said that his Istrian Democratic League

(IDS) may leave the governing coalition if the government

lets Istarska Banka go under, AP reported on 27 March.

National Bank Governor Marko Skreb recently decided to

appoint a "temporary administrator" for prosperous Istria's

leading bank, citing "significant irregularities" in its

activities. Skreb's move led depositors to stage a run on the

Istarska Banka's offices, in which they withdrew $6 million.

Skreb is under pressure from the IDS and its supporters to

resign, but he refuses to do so, "Novi List" reported on 28

March. The IDS wants the government to support the bank.

Before they came to power in January, Prime Minister Ivica

Racan and most of the governing parties often criticized the

government of the late President Franjo Tudjman for its

"political meddling" in the banking sector. "Slobodna

Dalmacija" wrote on 28 March that Racan may have to "show

Jakovcic the door" if he wants to appear true to his

principles. PM

[24] IMF APPROVES ROMANIA'S EXTENSION REQUEST

Board on 27 March approved the Romanian government's request

for a 60-day "technical extension" of the stand-by agreement

concluded in August 1999, Romanian Radio reported on 28

March. Under that agreement, the fund was to grant a $547

million loan, but only the first $73 million tranche of that

loan has been released because of Romania's failure to

implement the agreement. Mugur Isarescu's cabinet requested

the extension after debates in the parliament on the 2000

budget were postponed. An IMF team visited Bucharest last

week to discuss the budget with Isarescu. The fund is

insisting that the budget deficit does not exceed 3 percent

of GDP. The cabinet is also requesting that the stand-by

agreement, which was due to expire in 2000, be extended to

February 2001. MS

[25] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT DENIES INSULTING U.S.

Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR)

leader Ion Iliescu has denied a report by a BBC

correspondent in Chisinau that he insulted U.S. Congressmen

Frank Wolf and Christopher Smith following their criticism

of Iliescu and his party (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 March

2000), Romanian media reported on 27 March. He said the

report, which quoted him as saying that the two congressmen

must be "hit in the mouth" and "put in their place," was a

"lie." Iliescu visited Chisinau last weekend. Earlier on 27

March, presidential spokesman Razvan Popescu said Emil

Constantinescu is "concerned" that Iliescu's and the PDSR's

"aggressiveness" may harm the "strategic partnership with

the U.S." and Washington's support for Romania's bid to

join NATO. MS

[26] ROMANIAN 'HOT LINE AFFAIR' PROBED BY PROSECUTOR-GENERAL

investigation into the disappearance from the Foreign

Ministry's archives of secret documents and "confidential

information" used by the Russian publication "Zavtra" in

the article that triggered the "hot line controversy" in

Romania (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 March 2000), RFE/RL's

Bucharest bureau reported. The investigation has been

launched at the request of the ministry. In other news, the

Supreme Court on 27 March rejected an appeal by General

Victor Stanculescu against the 15-year sentence handed down

to him for his involvement in the quashing of the 1989

uprising in Timisoara (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 February

2000). Stanculescu, who is in London for medical treatment,

claims he did not received a summons to attend the trial.

MS

[27] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT REJECTS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN

Petru Lucinschi will "never" recognize the

results of local elections conducted on 26 March in the

breakaway Transdniester region because they do not respect

international legal norms and territorial administrative

reform in Moldova, his spokesman Anatol Golea told BASA-

Press. In other news, the Moldovan parliament passed the

government's budget in the second reading on 24 March. The

Communists, who had orginally opposed the budget, ended up

voting for it. The third reading is expected this week. The

budget's passage is an important condition for the country

to receive funding from the IMF. VG

[28] BULGARIA, ROMANIA SIGN DANUBE BRIDGE AGREEEMENT

Prime Minister Ivan Kostov and his Romanian counterpart,

Isarescu, signed an agreement on 27 March to build a second

bridge across the Danube River. The signing ceremony took

place in Bucharest on the eve of a Stability Pact donors'

conference. Bodo Hombach, the coordinator of that Pact,

said the bridge agreement is "a sign of the new spirit in

Southeastern Europe," Reuters reported. Bulgaria is to pay

for the construction of the bridge with a loan of 175

million euros ($169 million). VG

[29] TURKISH PRESIDENT PRAISES RELATIONS WITH BULGARIA

Demirel on 27 March praised his country's relations with

Bulgaria as well as that country's "positive treatment" of

its Turkish minority, the Anatolia news agency reported.

Demirel was speaking after a meeting with Bulgarian

parliamentary speaker Yordan Sokolov. VG

[C] END NOTE

[30] A REPUTATION DESTROYED

Bishkek's arrest of opposition leader Felix Kulov

further undermines Kyrgyzstan's earlier reputation as

the one Central Asian country that had been making some

progress toward democracy.

But the consequences of this action may be even

greater. Kulov's arrest appears likely to lead some to

excuse the behavior of other authoritarian regimes in

the region or even to write off the future prospects of

Central Asia as a whole. Such an approach could

effectively condemn the region to chaos, foreign

domination, or some combination of the two.

Last week, officials of Kyrgyzstan's National

Security Ministry arrested Kulov, the leader of the

opposition, while he was in a hospital being treated for

high blood pressure. As he was being led away, Kulov

said "As a man, I am not used to hiding," adding that "I

expected this."

A National Security Ministry spokesman said that

Kulov has been charged with abuse of power during the

time he served as minister of national security and

governor of Chu Oblast. But so far, the ministry has not

allowed Kulov's lawyer to have any contact with him, a

violation of Kyrgyzstan's constitution and laws.

Kulov led in the 20 February first round of

parliamentary elections in the Talas Oblast villiage of

Kara-Buura, but he lost by a suspiciously large margin

in a runoff with the man who had placed second in that

round. OSCE Secretary-General Jan Kubis said in Bishkek

earlier this month that the results of that ballot were

"a blemish on the president's prestige and that of the

government."

Since 12 March, opposition groups have mounted

protests in Kyzyl-Adyr, a village in Kulov's electoral

district, to condemn what they call widespread electoral

fraud. Following Kulov's arrest, the Bishkek authorities

arrested some 100 demonstrators, destroyed the yurts

where they had been living, and burned their posters and

signs.

Kulov's arrest is only the latest indication of

Kyrgyzstan President Askar Akaev's drift toward

authoritarianism. Despite his earlier reputation as a

democrat--former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker

once described him as his "favorite" Central Asian--

Akaev ever since has been moving against personal

opponents and the institutions of civil society.

In every case, Akaev has justified his behavior by

pointing to threats of instability arising from Islamic

fundamentalism or cross-border challenges, arguments

that have led some, if not all, Western governments to

excuse his behavior.

But at the same time, his democratic rhetoric

allowed those Western governments to have some

confidence that Akaev would return to the democratic

fold and to use his example to put pressure on other

Central Asian leaders, who have been considerably less

democratic in both rhetoric and practice.

Now, by arresting Kulov as part of a sweeping

crackdown against the opposition, Akaev has opened the

door not only to an ever more authoritarian Kyrgyzstan

but to three other and even more serious developments.

First, Akaev's shift will lead ever more people to

conclude that Central Asia is not ready for democracy

and that the international community must accept more

authoritarian rule there for the immediate future. Such

a conclusion is likely to reduce still further the

willingness of Western countries to put pressure on all

Central Asian governments to move toward democracy and

greater openness or even to get involved with these

states on other issues.

Second, by tolerating or even tacitly supporting

such authoritarianism, the West is likely to create what

it says it fears most: the rise to power of Islamic

fundamentalism throughout the region. In all too many

ways, Akaev and the other Central Asian leaders are

acting like the shah of Iran, creating a fragile

stability that will end with their departure from

office. Indeed, these leaders are likely to continue to

play on that fear to garner support for their own

authoritarianism.

And third, as that prospect becomes more likely,

the West may come to view the restoration of Russian

domination of this region either indirectly, through a

revamped Commonwealth of Independent States, or more

directly, through a new union as a price worth paying

for stability and the containment of Islamist politics.

That attitude is likely to further reduce the

West's ability to promote democracy and freedom not only

in Central Asia but elsewhere as well.

None of this appears to have been on the minds of those

who ordered the arrest of Kulov last week, but all of it

becomes far more likely because of this undemocratic act.

28-03-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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