RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 52, 00-03-14

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 52, 14 March 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] CASPIAN LITTORAL STATES DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

[02] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION PARTY CONDEMNS LEADERSHIP INFIGHTING

[03] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA DISCUSS GAS SECTOR COOPERATION

[04] AZERBAIJANI POLICE BREAK UP UNSANCTIONED PROTEST

[05] AZERBAIJAN'S MUSLIMS CONDEMN CHECHEN 'GENOCIDE'

[06] ABKHAZIA DENIES EXECUTING GEORGIAN POWS

[07] OSCE CONDEMNS KYRGYZ POLL VIOLATIONS

[08] TURKMENISTAN DEPORTS THREE RUSSIAN BAPTIST FAMILIES

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] KOSOVAR STUDENT LEADER SENTENCED TO 15 YEARS

[10] RUBIN APPEALS TO ALBANIANS, SERBS

[11] OSCE PREPARES FOR KOSOVA VOTE

[12] SERBIAN OPPOSITION CALLS FOR PROTESTS AGAINST MEDIA SHUTDOWN

[13] SERBIAN ARMY RESERVISTS PROTEST CALL-UP NOTICES

[14] MILOSEVIC PLEDGES DEFENSE

[15] U.S. EXPERT CALLS FOR 'REMOVAL' OF SERBIAN URANIUM

[16] CLARK WARNS MILOSEVIC ON MONTENEGRO

[17] CROATIAN SERB LEADER CALLS FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM

[18] CROATS WANT TO KNOW WHO PAID HAGUE LAWYER

[19] BOSNIAN SERB SOCIALIST PARTY CONTINUES TO DISSOLVE

[20] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT NAMES NEW DEFENSE MINISTER

[21] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT COMPLETES DUAL CITIZENSHIP DRAFT

[22] BULGARIA DENIES SELLING ARMS TO ANGOLA'S UNITA

[23] MACEDONIAN FIRM WANTS ONLY TWO BULGARIAN DAILIES

[C] END NOTE

[24] ON EQUAL TERMS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] CASPIAN LITTORAL STATES DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

Meeting in Almaty, representatives of Azerbaijan,

Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan have reached

agreement on the wording of a draft Caspian Environment

Security Convention, Caucasus Press reported on 13 March. But

that agreement is unlikely to be signed. let alone

implemented, until the five countries reach agreement on the

international status of the Caspian. LF

[02] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION PARTY CONDEMNS LEADERSHIP INFIGHTING

Democratic Union (AZhM) adopted a statement condemning the

ongoing tensions between Armenian President Robert Kocharian

and Prime Minister Aram Sargsian and his supporters, RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported. The statement termed the present

system of government an obstacle to efficient governance,

economic development, and democratization, and it called for

the abolition of the "clan system" and the formation of a

true government of the people. Also on 12 March, AZhM

chairman Vazgen Manukian acknowledged the existence of two

wings within the party, one of which advocates close

cooperation with the present cabinet. But Manukian said the

political situation is evolving so swiftly that within two or

three months that split will no longer exist. LF

[03] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA DISCUSS GAS SECTOR COOPERATION

with their Georgian counterparts and with Georgian President

Eduard Shevardnadze to discuss plans for the export of

natural gas from Azerbaijan's off-shore Shah Deniz field via

Georgia to Turkey, Caucasus Press reported. The plans entails

reconstruction of an existing pipeline from Azerbaijan to

Georgia and its extension via Georgia to Turkey. The new gas

pipeline will run parallel to the planned Baku-Ceyhan

pipeline that will export Caspian oil to Turkey. The gas

pipeline will have a throughput capacity of 16 billion cubic

meters per year that may be increased to 20-24 billion cubic

meters. Construction will begin next year and is scheduled

for completion in time to provide gas to Turkey during the

winter of 2002-2003. The issue of transit tariffs has not yet

been addressed. LF

[04] AZERBAIJANI POLICE BREAK UP UNSANCTIONED PROTEST

Baku on 14 March forcibly dispersed members of the opposition

Azerbaijan Popular Front Party who had tried to picket the

parliament building, Turan reported. The picketers were

demanding that the parliament debate the deteriorating social

and economic situation in the country. They had earlier

applied to the Baku Municipal Council for permission to stage

the protest, which was refused. LF

[05] AZERBAIJAN'S MUSLIMS CONDEMN CHECHEN 'GENOCIDE'

issued a statement on 13 March calling on progressive forces

in Russia and the international community to protest the

ongoing genocide of the Chechen people, Turan reported. The

statement expressed concern at the possibility that Moscow

might undertake similar punitive action against Azerbaijan.

LF

[06] ABKHAZIA DENIES EXECUTING GEORGIAN POWS

is prosecutor-general of the unrecognized Republic of

Abkhazia, has written to UN Special Representative Dieter

Boden denying Georgian media allegations that three Georgian

prisoners of war have been executed in Abkhazia's Dranda

prison, Caucasus Press reported on 13 March. Djergenia also

denied Georgian claims that Abkhazia has held several dozen

Georgians captive since the war ended in 1993. He said that

there are only three Georgian prisoners of war in Abkhaz

prisons. LF

[07] OSCE CONDEMNS KYRGYZ POLL VIOLATIONS

in Bishkek on 13 March, the OSCE election observer mission

said that the parliamentary elections "failed to comply with

OSCE commitments," Reuters reported. It added that "the

positive conditions for fair and competitive elections, which

the existing legislation could have ensured, have been

undermined." The statement expressed concern at the exclusion

of opposition candidates from the runoff vote on 12 March and

queried the validity of the poll results in a Talas Oblast

constituency where pressure on voters apparently contributed

to the second round defeat of opposition Ar-Namys Party

leader Feliks Kulov. Some 500 Kulov supporters congregated

outside the local election commission on 13 March to protest

Kulov's defeat, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. LF

[08] TURKMENISTAN DEPORTS THREE RUSSIAN BAPTIST FAMILIES

13 March, the Turkmen authorities forcibly returned to Russia

three Baptist preachers and their families who had been

living in Ashgabat and the town of Mary to the southeast,

Keston News Service reported on 13 March. Two other leading

members of Turkmenistan's Baptist community were deported to

Russia and Ukraine last December. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] KOSOVAR STUDENT LEADER SENTENCED TO 15 YEARS

court in Nis has sentenced Albin Kurti to 15 years

imprisonment. Charges against him included "separatism...,

jeopardizing Yugoslavia's territorial integrity, and

conspiring to commit hostile activities linked to terrorism."

Kurti told the judge that he does not "recognize [the

authority of] the court, or Serbia, or Yugoslavia," adding

that he has nothing to add to his previous testimony, "Danas"

reported on 14 March. Kurti's court-appointed lawyer said

that he will appeal the sentence. State prosecutor Aleksandar

Obradovic said that "the defendant has shown in this

courtroom all his hatred for the Serbian people." The charges

against Kurti carried a maximum sentence of 20 years, but

observers suggest that he received less than that because of

the high degree of publicity his case had received abroad. As

a student leader in 1997 and 1998, Kurti was a pacifist.

After the Serbian crackdown began in Kosova, he became a

spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army's Adem Demaci, who

had been Kosova's best-known dissident under communism. PM

[10] RUBIN APPEALS TO ALBANIANS, SERBS

spokesman James Rubin said in Gjilan on 14 March that people

in Kosova should be patient in awaiting justice and not seek

revenge for atrocities committed against them in the recent

conflict (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 March 2000). He stressed

that it will take time for a functioning judicial system to

be established in the province. Rubin told his ethnic

Albanian listeners that they are now "free of the oppression

from Belgrade," adding that freedom requires responsibility.

The previous day in Gracanica, he told members of the local

Serbian minority that the U.S. did not intervene in Kosova in

order to "watch Albanians act against Serbs." He said that

"the Serbs should know that we want coexistence for all the

peoples" in the province. PM

[11] OSCE PREPARES FOR KOSOVA VOTE

Prishtina on 13 March that Serbian refugees from Kosova need

not return to the province to register or vote in local

elections tentatively slated for 1 October. He called on the

Yugoslav authorities to cooperate in enabling the refugees to

take part in the electoral process. In Leposaviq, Everts met

with leaders of the Serbian minority to discuss plans for a

pre-election census. Oliver Ivanovic, who is the chief

representative of the Serbs in Mitrovica, said that the

"money that will be spent on a three-month census should

instead be used for the return of Serbian" refugees, AP

reported. PM

[12] SERBIAN OPPOSITION CALLS FOR PROTESTS AGAINST MEDIA SHUTDOWN

of Belgrade to rally in front of the city hall if the

authorities try to shut down Studio B Television, which is

controlled by Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement.

Speaking on 13 March, the spokesmen stressed that they expect

the government's recent crackdown on the independent and

private media to continue (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 March

2000). But Predrag Markovic, who is a spokesman for the G-17

group of independent economists, said they have unspecified

information that opposition leaders will "hand the station

over to the regime in order to protect their own fundamental

interests," "Vesti" reported. Elsewhere, the private Beta

news agency reported that Yugoslav army authorities in Nis

ordered the staff of the independent TV 5 station to evacuate

their premises by 24 April. The army officials said in a

letter that they want to use the "unprofitable space" for

living quarters, Reuters reported. PM

[13] SERBIAN ARMY RESERVISTS PROTEST CALL-UP NOTICES

tank corps reservists demonstrated near Kraljevo on 13 March

to protest what they said are frequent call-ups. They

demanded a more equitable distribution of call-up notices,

"Vesti" reported. Opposition spokesmen have repeatedly said

in recent days that they suspect the army is selectively

sending out the notices to opposition supporters and to

individuals in strongly anti-regime municipalities. Army

chief-of-staff General Nebojsa Pavkovic and other commanders

say that the call-up notices are "routine" and have nothing

to do with tensions in southwestern Serbia or between Serbia

and Montenegro. PM

[14] MILOSEVIC PLEDGES DEFENSE

Milosevic on 13 March formally named General Vladimir

Lazarevic to succeed Pavkovic as head of the Third Army,

which is responsible for southern Serbia (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 3 January and 16 February 2000). Milosevic

stressed that he is ready to "defend the peace and freedom of

the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia with all [available]

means," "Vesti" reported. PM

[15] U.S. EXPERT CALLS FOR 'REMOVAL' OF SERBIAN URANIUM

authority William Potter said in Washington on 13 March that

the international community should "remove" some 50 kilograms

of weapons-grade uranium stored at Vinca, between Belgrade

and Kragujevac. Potter said that security at the facility is

lax and that the uranium could easily be stolen. He also

warned that some Serbian leaders may be tempted to "pursue a

nuclear option," Reuters reported. PM

[16] CLARK WARNS MILOSEVIC ON MONTENEGRO

in Europe General Wesley Clark said in Sofia on 13 March that

"NATO will do or not do the things it needs to do or not do

as it sees it at the time.... As I have said publicly, Mr.

Milosevic should be very aware about NATO's capability."

Clark stressed that the Atlantic alliance is "watching very

closely what's happening in Montenegro as Milosevic tightens

the noose." PM

[17] CROATIAN SERB LEADER CALLS FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM

Pupovac said in Zagreb on 13 March that Croatia could easily

return to the nationalism characteristic of the late

President Franjo Tudjman's rule unless the government takes

urgent measures to enable Serbian refugees to return to

Croatia, rebuild their homes, and acquire citizenship. He

added that "democracy in Zagreb without democracy in [the

Krajina center of] Knin is something that is not realistic,"

Reuters reported. Elsewhere in the Croatian capital, British

Foreign Secretary Robin Cook praised the new government but

called on it to cooperate more closely with the Hague-based

war crimes tribunal. PM

[18] CROATS WANT TO KNOW WHO PAID HAGUE LAWYER

the Croatian Embassy in Washington said on 13 March that the

embassy has no record of a reported contract with the U.S.

attorney David Rivkin, according to which Rivkin allegedly

received some $9 million over several years to represent

Croatian interests at the Hague-based war crimes tribunal.

Justice Minister Stjepan Ivanisevic said recently that

embassy officials, and not his ministry, negotiated the

contract. "Slobodna Dalmacija" reported on 14 March that

several top officials of the former ruling party are trying

to blame one another for the alleged deal with Rivkin.

Critics charge that Rivkin was ineffective in representing

Croatia and was not worth the huge fees he reportedly

received. PM

[19] BOSNIAN SERB SOCIALIST PARTY CONTINUES TO DISSOLVE

on 13 March in Banja Luka, the steering committee of the

Socialist Party of the Republika Srpska expelled Nebojsa

Radmanovic and Mirko Nozica from the committee. Momir Malic,

who is the parliament's general secretary, said he has quit

the party. Party General Secretary Zeljko Mirjanic added that

he is leaving that post, "Oslobodjenje" reported. The

expulsions and resignations come in the wake of the party's

decision to leave the governing coalition (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 28 February 2000). The party is the Bosnian branch

of Milosevic's party, and the decision to quit the government

is widely seen as having been on his orders. PM

[20] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT NAMES NEW DEFENSE MINISTER

President Emil Constantinescu has appointed Sorin

Frunzaverde as new defense minister, Romanian media

reported on 13 March. Frunzaverde was nominated to the post

by the Democratic Party, following the resignation of

former Defense Minister Victor Babiuc. However, the

Democratic Party is to meet on 15 March to decide whether

to remain in the coalition government. Constantinescu also

expressed his support for Prime Minister Mugur Isarescu and

called on the various coalition parties to work together on

drafting key laws, such as the budget and a medium-term

economic strategy. VG

[21] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT COMPLETES DUAL CITIZENSHIP DRAFT

draft law on dual citizenship, according to a 13 March

BASA-Press report. Mihai Petrache, the president's legal

adviser, said the Moldovan Foreign Ministry will submit the

document to countries with which it wants to sign dual

citizenship agreements. Last week, Lucinschi said in a

televised address that Moldova is primarily interested in

having such agreements with Romania, Russia, and Israel. VG

[22] BULGARIA DENIES SELLING ARMS TO ANGOLA'S UNITA

Bulgarian Economy Ministry on 13 March denied reports that

the country has sold weapons to UNITA and trained members

of the rebel group in Angola, BTA reported. The ministry

was responding to a UN report that cited Bulgaria as a

chief source of weapons for UNITA since 1997. The report

also noted that UNITA members disguised as Zaireans have

been trained in Bulgaria. The Economy Ministry said

Bulgaria signed a military training accord with Zaire in

1996, at a time when there were no international

restrictions on such programs with that country. It added

that it sold weapons to Togo, which the UN report cites as

a supplier of arms to UNITA. VG

[23] MACEDONIAN FIRM WANTS ONLY TWO BULGARIAN DAILIES

Macedonian publishing house Nova Makedonija has asked the

Bulgarian distributor Pelagonia-M Ltd to provide it with

only two Bulgarian newspapers, "Trud" and "24 Chasa,"

rather than the full allotment, BTA reported. The head of

the Bulgarian firm said he is "alarmed" at that decision.

On 11 March, the Macedonian firm denied earlier reports

that it has decided to discontinue all deliveries of

Bulgarian newspapers. VG

[C] END NOTE

[24] ON EQUAL TERMS

Russian and Chechen forces increasingly will meet on

equal terms and are likely to suffer equal losses now that

the military phase of Moscow's operation is mostly over. That

pattern appears certain to have an impact on Russian popular

attitudes about the conflict as well as on Chechen efforts to

continue to fight.

That is the judgment of Pavel Felgengauer, Russia's

leading defense analyst. Speaking on Russian radio last week,

he suggested that the conflict would now turn into one of

"total war" between Russians who have brought it upon

themselves by the way in which they have conducted the war

and Chechens who now see their struggle as one for national

survival.

Such a war, Felgengauer continued, is one that Russian

army and Interior Ministry units are not prepared for. Even

the most well-trained units are likely to be at risk, he

said, pointing to the destruction of a Moscow police convoy

outside of Grozny the previous week and the escape of the

Chechen units who inflicted it.

But for conscripts and new recruits, Felgengauer

suggested, the situation is certain to be even worse. The

fighting in Chechnya "will increasingly be on equal terms,

without artillery or air power," on which Russian forces had

relied to keep their own casualties to a minimum.

Any rise in Russian casualties is likely to undercut

Moscow's current claims of victory, simultaneously leading

some Russians to call for even tougher measures against the

Chechens and causing others to consider trying to find a

peaceful way out.

Because acting Russian President Vladimir Putin has

based his reputation largely on his tough stance in Chechnya,

he will be reluctant to pull back in any way. Right now, the

Russian public overwhelmingly supports him in this, with

approximately 70 percent favoring a continuation of his

campaign to suppress the Chechens.

But that support is predicated on his keeping Russian

losses low. Felgengauer's analysis suggests that Putin and

his regime may not be able to continue to do so. And once

casualties increase, the historical record of many countries

that have fought similar wars suggests that many who now

support the war effort may turn against it.

Moreover, as the war drags on, ever more Russians are

likely to become concerned about the impact of the conflict

on Russian political and social life more generally. As

Felgengauer pointed out, Moscow has conducted this campaign

in a way that has demonized the Chechens and created a

situation in which "hatred is met with hatred."

Not only will that further fragment Russian society, but

it will almost certainly poison Russian politics and limit

the possibility that Russia will be able to move in a

democratic direction. That risk was highlighted in a recent

speech by Dmitrii Furman, a senior scholar at Moscow's

Institute of Europe and a consultant for the Andrei Sakharov

Museum and Center.

Speaking to the National Endowment for Democracy in

Washington on 23 February--the anniversary of Stalin's

deportation of the Chechens--Furman suggested that Moscow's

approach both to Chechnya and the Chechens left him unable to

"imagine a peaceful integration of Chechens into Russian

society."

As a result, Furman said, Russian democracy is likely to

become impossible without Chechen independence. And because

of that, he concluded, "in the long run, I think Chechen

independence is inevitable."

So far, relatively few Russians appear ready to agree

with Furman's conclusion, a state of affairs that raises

serious questions about Moscow's ability to move toward

democracy.

But Felgengauer's argument that the new phase of the

Chechen conflict will feature more Russian casualties could

ultimately lead many other Russians to conclude that they

would be far better off in a democratic Russia without

Chechnya than in an undemocratic Russia that tries to hold on

to this small republic in the North Caucasus.

If that happens, Russia will join a long list of

countries that have given up their colonial possessions once

they realized the full cost of holding them.

14-03-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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