RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 243, 99-12-16

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 243, 16 December 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER DETAINED

[02] AGREEMENT REACHED ON NEW WORLD BANK LOAN FOR ARMENIA

[03] ARMENIA RELEASES AZERBAIJANI POW

[04] AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION REJECTS MUNICIPAL ELECTION RESULTS

[05] GEORGIA DENIES HOSTING CHECHEN-BEN LADEN MEETING

[06] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT OUTLINES SECURITY PRIORITIES

[07] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FIGURES SEARCHED ON RETURN FROM FRANCE

[08] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT APPROVES 2000 BUDGET

[09] TAJIKISTAN, BELARUS SIGN TRADE, ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS

[10] JAPAN TO FINANCE MODERNIZATION OF UZBEK AIRPORTS, TELECOM

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER WARNS YUGOSLAV ARMY

[12] NATO CONCERNED ABOUT MONTENEGRO

[13] MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION REFUSES TO RECOGNIZE NEW PRESIDENT...

[14] ...AS TRAJKOVSKI TAKES OFFICE

[15] ALBANIA HAILS KOSOVA COUNCIL...

[16] ...WHILE SERBS SHUN IT

[17] YUGOSLAV ARMY SEEKS SCAPEGOATS

[18] SERBIAN FATHER REJECTS POSTHUMOUS AWARD FOR SON

[19] DRASKOVIC PARTY WALKS OUT OF PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE

[20] REPUBLIKA SRPSKA COOPERATES WITH HAGUE TRIBUNAL

[21] ROMANIAN MEDIA SAYS GOVERNMENT TO BE HEADED BY

[22] ...AS RECOMMENDED BY OPPOSITION LEADER

[23] FORMER ROMANIAN MONARCH PARTICIPATES IN REVOLUTION

[24] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT NOMINATES NEW PREMIER

[25] COUNCIL OF EUROPE COMMISSION REJECTS LUCINSCHI'S PRESIDENTIAL

[C] END NOTE

[26] RUSSIA MAY RISK SANCTIONS ON CHECHNYA

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER DETAINED

Harutiunian was detained late on 15 December by the military

prosecutor investigating the 27 October parliament shootings,

Noyan Tapan reported the following day. Harutiunian had

submitted a letter of resignation to President Robert

Kocharian earlier on 15 December in an attempt to end what he

termed "immoral" speculation linking him to the organizer of

the shootings, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Harutiunian

had been summoned for questioning on two previous occasions,

according to AP. Presidential spokesman Vahe Gabrielian told

journalists later on 15 December that President Robert

Kocharian has instructed the law enforcement agencies to

conduct an "objective inquiry" into the rumors implicating

Harutiunian. LF

[02] AGREEMENT REACHED ON NEW WORLD BANK LOAN FOR ARMENIA

in Yerevan on 15 December, Armenian Prime Minister Aram

Sargsian and senior World Bank Judy O'Connor reached

preliminary agreement on a new Structural Adjustment Credit

for Armenia next year, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The

size of that loan, which will be used to cover part of

Armenia's budget deficit, has not been specified. Sargsian's

cabinet has not yet presented its draft budget for 2000. LF

[03] ARMENIA RELEASES AZERBAIJANI POW

the Armenian authorities on 15 December freed a 19-year-old

Azerbaijani army conscript taken prisoner in September 1998

on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, AP and ITAR-

TASS reported. Armenia released three and Azerbaijan four

prisoners in September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 and 20

September 1999). LF

[04] AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION REJECTS MUNICIPAL ELECTION RESULTS

Azerbaijani opposition parties aligned in the Democratic

Congress refused to acknowledge the validity of the published

results of the 12 December municipal elections, Turan

reported. Democratic Congress chairman Shohrat Ismailov said

the outcome of the poll had been falsified. "525 gazeti" on

15 December quoted Musavat Party official as saying that 588

of the party's total 2,556 candidates had been elected. Also

on 15 December, the Central Electoral Commission declared

invalid the poll results in one Baku constituency where only

15,952 of the 38,176 votes cast were deemed valid. LF

[05] GEORGIA DENIES HOSTING CHECHEN-BEN LADEN MEETING

State Security Ministry spokesman Gela Suladze on 15 December

rejected as fabrication an RIA Novosti report earlier that

day that Chechen emissary Movladi Udugov had held secret

talks in Tbilisi with a representative of Saudi- terrorist

Osama bin Laden, Caucasus Press reported. The talks were said

to have focused on arrangements for a Chechen government in

exile headed by Udugov to fly later this week from Tbilisi to

Karachi, from where they would travel to Afghanistan. Suladze

said that Udugov has not visited Tbilisi for several months.

Also on 15 December, Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesman

Avtandil Napetvaridze denied a Russian media report claiming

that OSCE observers who traveled to the Georgian-Chechen

border earlier that day had seen Chechen militants on

Georgian territory. LF

[06] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT OUTLINES SECURITY PRIORITIES

December address to the nation, Nursultan Nazarbaev warned

that the possibility of "spillover" from armed conflicts in

neighboring countries will constitute "the main challenge" to

Kazakhstan's security in the 21st century, Interfax reported.

Further potential dangers are posed by religious and

political extremism and drug-trafficking, he added. As

pillars of the country's security strategy, Nazarbaev singled

out increased security cooperation with Russia and China and

between the "Shanghai Five" states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Russia, China and Tajikistan). He also identified the strong

U.S. political and commercial presence in Kazakhstan as one

of those pillars. Also on 15 December, Kazakhstan's Defense

Minister Yerlan Idrisov told Interfax that the country's

military doctrine, which will be approved early next year,

will be "purely defensive." LF

[07] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FIGURES SEARCHED ON RETURN FROM FRANCE

Kazakh opposition parties and movements, were searched by

National Security Committee officials at Almaty airport on 15

December, RFE/RL's correspondent in the former capital

reported. The opposition politicians, including Workers'

Movement leader Madel Ismailov and a leading member of the

Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan, were returning from

a trip to Paris at the invitation of the French parliament.

LF

[08] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT APPROVES 2000 BUDGET

December approved the amended budget for 2000 in the final

reading, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The revised budget

envisages revenues of 9.7 billion soms (about $215 million)

and expenditures of 9.5 billion soms, resulting in a modest

surplus equivalent to 0.3 percent of GDP. GDP growth is

projected at 3-4 percent and annual inflation at 20 percent,

according to Interfax. LF

[09] TAJIKISTAN, BELARUS SIGN TRADE, ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS

session in Dushanbe of the Tajik-Belarusian intergovernmental

commission for trade and economic cooperation ended with the

signing of three agreements on taxes and on establishing

trade representations, Asia Plus-Blitz reported on 15

December. The possible creation of joint ventures was also

discussed, including one producing tractors, but no concrete

agreement was reached. LF

[10] JAPAN TO FINANCE MODERNIZATION OF UZBEK AIRPORTS, TELECOM

million) credit to help fund the reconstruction of the

airports at Samarkand, Bukhara, and Urgench, Russian agencies

reported on 15 December. In addition, Japan's Bank of

International Cooperation has earmarked a 12.7 billion yen

credit toward the ongoing expansion of Uzbekistan's

telecommunications network. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER WARNS YUGOSLAV ARMY

Vujanovic said in an open letter to General Dragoljub

Ojdanic, who is the army chief of staff, that there are no

Montenegrin police forces "near" the Podgorica airport,

Montenegrin Television reported on 15 December (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 15 December 1999). Vujanovic stressed that there

is no reason for the military to place their forces at the

airport on a heightened state of alert. He said that charges

by the air force's General Spasoje Smiljanic that police

units are illegally present at the airport constitute

"disinformation...[aimed at] increasing tensions." PM

[12] NATO CONCERNED ABOUT MONTENEGRO

NATO foreign ministers said in a statement that they are

concerned about tensions between Belgrade and the

"democratically elected government of Montenegro." U.S.

Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott added that there

will be no peace in the region without democracy in Serbia.

The ministers urged Croatia to give fresh attention to

implementing the Dayton peace agreement in Bosnia. PM

[13] MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION REFUSES TO RECOGNIZE NEW PRESIDENT...

Petkovski and members of his party boycotted the 15 December

presidential inauguration of Boris Trajkovski of the

governing coalition. An unidentified Social Democratic party

official told AP that his party considers Trajkovski only a

"private citizen and not a legitimately elected president."

The Social Democrats maintain that Trajkovski won because of

numerous irregularities in the mainly ethnic Albanian western

regions of Macedonia. They previously admitted defeat (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 9 December 1999). Critics charge that what

really bothers the nationalistic Social Democrats is that

ethnic Albanians cast the key votes necessary to elect

Trajkovski. PM

[14] ...AS TRAJKOVSKI TAKES OFFICE

presidential inaugural speech on 15 December that he intends

to be the leader of all Macedonians regardless of their

ethnicity. He added that he will "not allow ethnic hatred and

intolerance undermine Macedonia's stability. The country's

integrity is an issue on which there will be no compromise,"

AP reported. PM

[15] ALBANIA HAILS KOSOVA COUNCIL...

in Tirana on 15 December that the formation of the new Kosova

Interim Administrative Council is an "historic step" toward

stability in the province, AP reported (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 15 December 1999). The council "will lead to the

establishment of democratic institutions, thus opening the

way for the preparation of free, democratic elections in

Kosova," Meta added. He added that by signing the agreement

that set up the council, the province's ethnic Albanians

showed their willingness to live in peace with the Serbian

minority. Meta stressed the commitment of the Albanian

government "to support all processes for the democratization

of life in Kosova and the entire region." PM

[16] ...WHILE SERBS SHUN IT

is the chief organization of Kosova's Serbian minority, said

in a statement to the private news agency Beta on 15 December

that the agreement setting up the interim council places the

Serbs in a "humiliating and unacceptable position." The Serbs

will join the new body only if they are given self-governing

cantons. In Prishtina, the UN's Bernard Kouchner said that

Serbs "are welcome [in his new council] and we have not

stopped talking with them." He stressed that the Serbs

themselves must decide whether to participate, AP reported.

Kouchner previously rejected cantonization on the grounds

that it would constitute a partition of the province along

ethnic lines. The UN is committed to building a multi-ethnic

Kosova. Kouchner recently said that he realizes that this

goal is a long way off, the "Berliner Zeitung" reported. PM

[17] YUGOSLAV ARMY SEEKS SCAPEGOATS

a statement published in the state-run daily "Politika" on 15

December that it will try retired Colonel Sulejman Ajetovic

in a military court for allegedly passing confidential

information on the movements and strength of Serbian forces

to Kosovar guerrillas during the recent conflict. Ajetovic is

an ethnic Muslim from Medvedja in southern Serbia near the

border with Kosova. Elsewhere, several army officers repeated

charges made in the regime media that former General Momcilo

Perisic also aided the Kosovar cause in the conflict, "Vesti"

reported. Perisic now heads a small opposition party. "Danas"

noted on 16 December that Perisic has filed legal charges

against some of his accusers. PM

[18] SERBIAN FATHER REJECTS POSTHUMOUS AWARD FOR SON

of 20 year-old soldier Aleksandar Vukovic, who was killed in

the recent conflict in Kosova, has returned to the Kraljevo

military command a medal posthumously awarded Aleksandar. The

father said in his letter: "This decoration was posthumously

conferred to my son because he gave his life for his

homeland. But he did not give his life for the homeland, but

rather for Marko Milosevic [Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic's playboy son, who did not serve at the front] and

his family.... I asked the colonel [in the Kraljevo command]

to return to Milosevic this decoration and this letter that

Milosevic awarded to me, to give it to his own family,

because all members of his family are sitting together during

their meals while we have ours at my son's grave," the

private news agency Beta reported on 15 December. PM

[19] DRASKOVIC PARTY WALKS OUT OF PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE

out of a meeting of the parliament's Judiciary Committee on

the grounds that deputies from the ruling coalition were not

willing to discuss seriously the SPO's call for early

elections at all levels of government. Party officials said

on 15 December that they will now decide on their next move.

One official stressed, however, that "we do not want chaos,

we do not want civil war," Reuters reported. PM

[20] REPUBLIKA SRPSKA COOPERATES WITH HAGUE TRIBUNAL

spokesman said in Banja Luka on 15 December that experts from

the Hague-based war crimes tribunal are questioning seven

suspects in the Bosnian Serb capital. A lawyer for two of the

suspects told AP that this procedure is being used for the

first time in the Republika Srpska. He added that it allows

suspects to participate in their cases from an early stage

and not become involved "only after they have been arrested."

In another first, Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik

and Justice Minister Milan Trbojevic will visit The Hague

soon. Meanwhile in Munich, a Bavarian court sentenced

Djurdadj Kusljic to life imprisonment for genocide and for

the murder of six Muslims in 1992, when he was a Bosnian Serb

police chief, the "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" reported. PM

[21] ROMANIAN MEDIA SAYS GOVERNMENT TO BE HEADED BY

Romanian media on 15 December reported that

Mugur Isarescu, governor of Romania's National Bank, will be

designated as Romania's next premier. Mediafax said that

Isarescu was called to the presidential palace, where he

participated in the ongoing consultations between President

Emil Constantinescu and leaders of the coalition parties.

Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania Chairman Bela

Marko, interviewed by Romanian Radio on 16 December, said it

is "very probable" that Isarescu will head the next

government and that changes in the cabinet's line-up are also

likely. Romanian Radio cited AFP as reporting that Isarescu

has demanded "full freedom" in the choice of ministers. The

radio added that the cabinet will have five deputy premiers.

According to a 15 December Mediafax report, one of those

deputies will be Democratic Party leader Petre Roman, who is

currently Senate chairman. MS

[22] ...AS RECOMMENDED BY OPPOSITION LEADER

Constantinescu on how to solve the cabinet crisis, Party of

Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) Chairman Ion Iliescu told

journalists that he recommended that the government be headed

by an unaffiliated "technocrat" and that its main task be the

organization of next elections, as was the case of Theodor

Stolojan's government in 1991-1992. Iliescu also said he told

Constantinescu that the president "walked into a

constitutional trap" by unlawfully dismissing Radu Vasile as

premier. Constantinescu "had agreed" with him, he added.

Iliescu said the PDSR, which is boycotting parliamentary

debates, will not return to the parliament until the

constitutional crisis is resolved by either a no-confidence

vote in the outgoing cabinet or by Vasile's resignation. MS

[23] FORMER ROMANIAN MONARCH PARTICIPATES IN REVOLUTION

Former King Michael will give a speech from the

steps of the Orthodox Cathedral in Timisoara, where

festivities marking the 10th anniversary of the uprising

against the communist regime begin on 16 December, Romanian

Radio reported the same day. MS

[24] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT NOMINATES NEW PREMIER

who was first deputy minister of economy and reform in Ion

Sturza and Ion Ciubuc's cabinets, has been designated to form

the new government, Flux reported on 16 December. President

Petru Lucinschi read out in the parliament the decree

nominating Barghis. Barghis has 15 days to form a cabinet,

but Lucinschi said Barghis will present the list of ministers

on 22 December, after consulting all parliamentary parties.

Barghis is 42 years old and an engineer by training. MS

[25] COUNCIL OF EUROPE COMMISSION REJECTS LUCINSCHI'S PRESIDENTIAL

Experts from the Venice Commission of the

Council of Europe who examined Lucinschi's proposal to change

from a semi- to a full-presidential system have negatively

evaluated that suggestion, parliamentary deputy Vladimir

Slonari told journalists on 15 December. Slonari said the

experts concluded that the envisaged change would lead to too

high a concentration of power in the president's hands at the

expense of the parliament. This, they said, would run

"contrary to European democratic principles," Infotag

reported. Slonari said that "if Moldova considers itself a

civilized state," it should comply with the commission's

recommendations. MS

[C] END NOTE

[26] RUSSIA MAY RISK SANCTIONS ON CHECHNYA

U.S. analysts say Russia may risk sanctions if it

continues the war in Chechnya and thereby inflict further

damage on its relations with the West.

International tension has risen in the past week with

the Russian campaign to capture Grozny and the growing number

of displaced persons. Moscow's rejection of U.S. and European

appeals to end the fighting has led to calls for penalties,

including cutting off aid.

Last week, "The New York Times" columnist William Safire

linked the war to Russia's bid to control pipeline routes

from the Caspian region and urged a series of steps including

suspension of IMF loans. The conservative newspaper

commentator also advocated a halt to financing by the U.S.

Export-Import Bank and steps to lower world oil prices,

depriving Russia of income to pay for the war.

The recommendations go beyond those of U.S. presidential

candidates, including Republican Texas Governor George W.

Bush, who has said that Russia should not expect multilateral

loans if civilians in Chechnya are bombed.

In interviews with RFE/RL, some U.S. analysts say that

the risk of sanctions will increase as Western sentiment

intensifies against the war.

Richard Haass, director of foreign policy at the

Brookings Institution in Washington, commented that each day,

there will be more and more pressure on Western governments

to do something.

While Haass said he believes that unilateral sanctions

are generally ineffective, he noted that the disposition

toward penalties appears even stronger in Europe than in the

U.S.

At the EU summit in Helsinki on 10-11 December, the

leaders of the 15 member states of the EU stopped short of

calling for sanctions. But they condemned Russian actions in

Chechnya, threatened to review the EU relationship with

Russia, and vowed strict enforcement of trade agreements,

saying that some terms have not been fulfilled. There were

also signs of softening in Moscow's line as officials

extended the deadline for the bombardment of Grozny and

offered safe passage to its citizens.

Although experts see a growing risk of harsh measures if the

war continues, some warn that sanctions against Russia would

be both ineffective and destructive.

Geoffrey Kemp, director of regional strategic programs

at the Nixon Center in Washington, remarked that, "We could

make matters worse very easily. If we slap sanctions on the

Russians and do some of the other things that have been

proposed, that is almost a guarantee that they will misbehave

in the Caucasus and the Caspian."

But analysts acknowledge that last week's low point in

Russian relations was driven by an outburst of nationalism,

evident not only in Chechnya but in Kremlin activities

ranging from the union treaty with Belarus to the fielding of

a new batch of Topol-M missiles. The analysts say the trend

appears to be one of greater East-West frictions that could

lead to retaliation.

Robert Ebel, director of the energy and security program

at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in

Washington, said nationalism is also at the heart of the

dispute over the Tyumen Oil company's takeover of a Sidanko

subsidiary, despite protests from BP Amoco and other Western

shareholders.

Last week, the U.S. Export-Import Bank faced pressure to

cancel $500 million in pending loan guarantees for Tyumen Oil

as a result of the takeover. Such a move could lead to a

further deterioration of bilateral ties and trade.

If relations continue to worsen, another potential

target is the Italian-Russian project known as Blue Stream to

pipe gas across the Black Sea to Turkey.

The plan could be particularly vulnerable because Russia

is paying for the Chechnya war with increased oil earnings.

Blue Stream promises to bring Moscow an estimated $3-4

billion in new revenues from gas. The venture between ENI of

Italy and Russia's Gazprom also flies in the face of a U.S.-

backed plan to supply Turkey with a trans-Caspian line from

Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Georgia.

The government of Italy, which owns 36 percent of ENI,

has been vocal in its opposition to Russian actions in the

war. Last week, Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema called

the bombing of Chechnya "horrible" and "unacceptable." In

Turkey, the opposition Islamist Virtue Party has gone even

further, accusing Russia of genocide. An official of ENI,

contacted by RFE/RL, declined to comment on the tensions or

potential repercussions for the Blue Stream project.

Robert Ebel of the Center for Strategic and

International Studies said that European countries have often

separated their political disagreements from their business

dealings. As a result, Ebel said, Blue Stream is unlikely to

be affected by European reactions to the war.

But there could still be threats to such investments

should the war continue, particularly if columnists like

Safire continue to link energy projects to Russia's agenda in

the Caucasus. Diplomatic protests and aid delays may convince

Moscow to end the war, but if not, critics are bound to look

for other ways to bring pressure to bear.

The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Washington.

16-12-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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