RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 228, 99-11-23

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 228, 23 November 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] NEW APPOINTMENT FOR FORMER ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY

[02] ANOTHER BOMB SCARE IN ARMENIA

[03] AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL CALLS FOR NATO GUARD FOR OIL EXPORT

[04] GEORGIAN OFFICIALS DOUBT THAT KIDNAPPED RUSSIAN GENERAL IS IN

[05] MORE DETAILS EMERGE OF SEPARATIST MOVEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN

[06] KAZAKHSTAN'S CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF TO STAND TRIAL

[07] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CALLS FOR ENHANCED DEFENSE POTENTIAL

[08] TURKMEN GAS PIPELINE AGREEMENT GREETED WITH OPTIMISM...

[09] ...AND SKEPTICISM

[10] OSCE NOT TO SEND FULL OBSERVER MISSION FOR UZBEK POLL

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] PERISIC: YUGOSLAV PARAMILITARIES IN MONTENEGRO

[12] WARM WELCOME FOR CLINTON IN KOSOVA

[13] KOSOVARS REMOVE RAHOVEC BARRICADES

[14] KOSOVA RAILWAY LINE REOPENED

[15] CALL FOR SUPPORT FOR SERBIAN OPPOSITION

[16] BELGRADE STUDENTS MARK PROTEST ANNIVERSARY

[17] SERBIAN POLICE BREAK UP COUNTERFEITING RING

[18] CROATIAN PARTIES REACH AGREEMENT ON PRESIDENCY

[19] BOSNIAN SERB HARD-LINERS WARNED

[20] ELECTION TO BE REPEATED IN 31 MACEDONIAN POLLING PLACES

[21] THOUSANDS OF ROMANIAN WORKERS PROTEST POOR LIVING CONDITIONS

[22] ROMANIAN RULING PARTY SAYS VASILE TO REMAIN PREMIER

[23] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS PREMIER-DESIGNATE

[24] CLINTON ADDRESSES TENS OF THOUSANDS IN SOFIA

[C] END NOTE

[25] COMPROMISE IN YEREVAN OVER NEW CABINET

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] NEW APPOINTMENT FOR FORMER ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY

President Robert Kocharian on 20 November named

Serzh Sarkisian secretary of the National Security Council,

RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported two days later. Sarkisian,

who resigned following the 27 October Armenian parliament

shootings, was appointed last week to head Kocharian's

presidential staff (see also "End Note"). LF

[02] ANOTHER BOMB SCARE IN ARMENIA

Privatization and Energy were evacuated on 22 November

minutes after an anonymous caller warned that a bomb had been

planted inside the building in central Yerevan where those

two ministries are located, RFE/RL's bureau in the Armenian

capital reported. But a police unit that immediately examined

the building found no explosives. Following a similar

anonymous warning last week, police discovered a package of

low-grade explosives in the parliament building (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 16 November 1999). LF

[03] AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL CALLS FOR NATO GUARD FOR OIL EXPORT

Rza Ibadov, who is chairman of the Azerbaijani

parliamentary Foreign Affairs commission, proposed at a

meeting last week that NATO form a special unit charged with

protecting the planned Baku-Ceyhan export pipeline for

Azerbaijan's Caspian oil, Interfax reported on 22 November.

LF

[04] GEORGIAN OFFICIALS DOUBT THAT KIDNAPPED RUSSIAN GENERAL IS IN

President Eduard Shevardnadze and Georgian

Intelligence chief Avtandil Ioseliani both said on 22

November they have no information that would shed light on

Russian claims that Russian Interior Ministry Gennadii

Shpigun is being held on Georgian territory, Caucasus Press

reported. Shpigun was abducted from Grozny airport in March.

An official from the North Caucasus Department for the

Struggle with Organized Crime told ITAR-TASS earlier that day

that Shpigun is being held in the Georgian village of Shatili

close to the Georgian-Chechen frontier. A Russian army

intelligence official similarly said he believes that Shpigun

is being held on Georgian territory. But an Interior Ministry

spokesman in Moscow told Interfax on 22 November he thinks it

unlikely that Shpigun is in Georgia. LF

[05] MORE DETAILS EMERGE OF SEPARATIST MOVEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN

22 men arrested on 19 November in East Kazakhstan Oblast are

ethnic Russians aged 20-35 and veterans of the Afghan and

Chechen wars, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported on 23

November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November 1999). Ten of

the men are citizens of Kazakhstan and the remainder are

Russian citizens. Kazakh security officials found huge

quantities of ammunition at the Oskemen apartment of the

group's leader, identified as Viktor Kazimirchik. The group

reportedly planned to organize an armed rebellion in the

towns of Pavlodar (North Kazakhstan Oblast), Oskemen, and

Leninogorsk (both in East Kazakhstan Oblast) with the aim of

establishing an "Independent Republic of Russian Altai." They

had reportedly secured the support of an unspecified number

of prominent local residents. LF

[06] KAZAKHSTAN'S CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF TO STAND TRIAL

face criminal charges in connection with the illegal sale to

North Korea of 40 MiG-21 fighter aircraft, Interfax reported

on 22 November. Ertaev was named acting defense minister in

August after President Nursultan Nazarbaev fired Defense

Minister Mukhtar Altynbaev and National Security Committee

Secretary Nurtay Abyqaev for their role in the sale of six of

those aircraft (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 August 1999). The

sales came to light in March, when Azerbaijani authorities

impounded a transport aircraft carrying the six disassembled

MiG-21s at Baku airport. Also on 22 November, the U.S.

imposed sanctions against one Kazakh and one Czech company

involved in smuggling the aircraft to North Korea. U.S. State

Department spokesman James Rubin said Washington imposed

sanctions on Kazakhstan but then waived them in

acknowledgement of the government's cooperation in

investigating the illegal deal. LF

[07] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT CALLS FOR ENHANCED DEFENSE POTENTIAL

Askar Akaev called for the strengthening of Kyrgzystan's

border troops and reform of the armed forces in general,

ITAR-TASS reported. He said combat readiness must be improved

and materiel and technical support increased. Akaev argued

that the August incursion into Kyrgyzstan by militants from

Tajikistan demonstrate that the CIS Security Treaty is still

needed. He also expressed appreciation for the help

Kyrgyzstan received from Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and

Uzbekistan in expelling the militants. LF

[08] TURKMEN GAS PIPELINE AGREEMENT GREETED WITH OPTIMISM...

and the U.S. company PSG, which are partners in the

consortium to build a Trans-Caspian pipeline to export

natural gas from Turkmenistan, have welcomed the signing by

the presidents of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and

Turkey of a letter of intent pledging their support for that

undertaking, Interfax reported on 22 November. The signing

took place in Istanbul last week. PSG Executive Director

Edward Smith said he is confident that a framework agreement

incorporating the legal and commercial aspects of the project

will be signed soon. But the failure of Turkmenistan and

Azerbaijan to reach agreement on the amount of Azerbaijani

gas to be exported via the pipeline may delay the signing of

that framework agreement, Interfax noted. LF

[09] ...AND SKEPTICISM

Chernomyrdin told journalists in St. Petersburg on 20

November that the planned Trans-Caspian pipeline is not

economical and will take 40 years to build, according to

Interfax. As USSR minister of oil and gas in the early 1980s,

Chernomyrdin evaluated plans for such a pipeline and rejected

them as unworkable. LF

[10] OSCE NOT TO SEND FULL OBSERVER MISSION FOR UZBEK POLL

OSCE will send only a limited number of monitors to

Uzbekistan for the 5 December parliamentary elections,

Interfax reported on 22 November, citing the OSCE office in

Tashkent. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human

Rights (ODIHR) said that Uzbekistan's electoral law falls far

short of OSCE requirements and that conditions do not exist

either for the emergence of a genuine opposition or for a

free election campaign. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] PERISIC: YUGOSLAV PARAMILITARIES IN MONTENEGRO

Yugoslav Army Chief of Staff General Momcilo Perisic said

that pro-Milosevic Montenegrin politicians have organized

"paramilitary units within the Yugoslav Army," Reuters

reported on 23 November. He noted that a "military police

battalion has been formed on the ideological principles of

Federal Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic's Socialist People's

Party. [The unit will] serve as a detonator for a conflict

with Montenegrin police," who are loyal to President Milo

Djukanovic. Perisic said that any use of the military to

prevent Montenegro from seceding from the Yugoslav federation

"would be completely illegal." He added that the existence of

paramilitary units is "terrible because it opens the

possibility of civil conflicts." Milosevic fired Perisic in

1998 after the general criticized Belgrade's policies in

Kosova. He now heads a small opposition party. PM

[12] WARM WELCOME FOR CLINTON IN KOSOVA

Albanians gave U.S. President Bill Clinton an enthusiastic

welcome in Ferizaj on 23 November. Clinton told his listeners

that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic wanted to "gain

control of [Kosova] by getting rid of all of you, and we said

no!" He added that "no one can force you to forgive what was

done to you, but you must try.... The time for fighting is

past... The international community will stand by you, but

you must take the lead," Reuters reported. Clinton also said:

"You cheered for us when we came in because, when you were

being oppressed, we stood by you and we exercised military

power to defeat the oppression of Mr. Milosevic.... We won

the war, but only you can win the peace." PM

[13] KOSOVARS REMOVE RAHOVEC BARRICADES

the barricades on roads leading into Rahovec on 22 November

after reaching an agreement with KFOR. The Albanians put up

the road blocks in mid-August to keep out Russian

peacekeepers, whom the Kosovars accused of supporting Serbian

forces in the recent conflict (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23

August 1999). It is unclear whether the latest agreement

provides for a Russian presence in the area, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. In related news, KFOR strengthened

its forces along the border between Kosova and Serbia

following the death of two Serbian policemen in a landmine

explosion on the Serbian side of the frontier (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 22 November 1999). PM

[14] KOSOVA RAILWAY LINE REOPENED

completed work on the railway line running from Prishtina to

Pec, the Frankfurt-based Serbian daily "Vesti" reported on 23

November. The line will enable KFOR to send goods from

Macedonia to the western part of Kosova more quickly than has

been the case. PM

[15] CALL FOR SUPPORT FOR SERBIAN OPPOSITION

some 50 Serbian opposition parties, independent unions, NGOs,

independent media, and the Montenegrin government have called

on the international community to support democratic forces

in Serbia. Meeting in Strasbourg on 21 and 22 November under

the aegis of the Council of Europe and Prague's East-West

Institute, the delegates appealed for an easing of sanctions

on Yugoslavia and for early elections. Belgrade's "Danas"

said that the meeting showed that the West regards the

opposition as "equal partners." "Vesti" quoted Kosova Serb

leader Momcilo Trajkovic as saying that the West is not

concerned about the Serbs in Kosova but only about the ethnic

Albanians. The daily added that what Serbia needs is

"concrete assistance" and not promises. PM

[16] BELGRADE STUDENTS MARK PROTEST ANNIVERSARY

students attended a rock concert on 22 November to mark the

third anniversary of protests that forced Milosevic to

recognize opposition victories in Serbian local elections. PM

[17] SERBIAN POLICE BREAK UP COUNTERFEITING RING

arrested 10 people in Belgrade on 22 November for having

forged $1.5 million and 140,000 Bosnian convertible marks.

One suspect is still at large. Police destroyed all of the

currency except about $500,000, which the forgers had already

put into circulation. Experts said that the technical quality

of the forged bills was good. Ringleaders Dragan Raseta and

Predrag Simic turned to counterfeiting to pay off debts,

"Vesti" reported. PM

[18] CROATIAN PARTIES REACH AGREEMENT ON PRESIDENCY

agreed on 22 November on the basic points of a constitutional

amendment that will enable legislators to declare President

Franjo Tudjman temporarily incapacitated and choose a care-

taker chief executive (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 November

1999). On 23 November, the party representatives are expected

to work out details of the measure, which the parliament will

likely pass the following day, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. PM

[19] BOSNIAN SERB HARD-LINERS WARNED

deputy to the international community's Wolfgang Petritsch,

told local officials in Foca on 22 November that they will

receive no foreign assistance unless they allow Muslim

refugees to return home. Before the 1992-1995 conflict,

Foca's population was 52 percent Muslim. Now it is almost

completely Serbian, including many Serbs from other parts of

Bosnia. Foca is known as a stronghold of hard-line

politicians and is widely believed to shelter some indicted

war criminals. The unemployment rate is over 60 percent. PM

[20] ELECTION TO BE REPEATED IN 31 MACEDONIAN POLLING PLACES

central election commission announced in Skopje on 22

November that the recent presidential ballot will have to

take place again at 31 polling stations. The commission's

investigations confirmed that significant irregularities had

taken place during the voting at those polling stations.

Defeated Social Democratic candidate Tito Petkovski has

charged that massive fraud by ethnic Albanian politicians in

western Macedonia resulted in his defeat by Boris Trajkovski

of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization. PM

[21] THOUSANDS OF ROMANIAN WORKERS PROTEST POOR LIVING CONDITIONS

of Iasi on 22 November to protest declining living standards,

AP reported. The protest was organized by labor unions. Doru

Alexandrescu, a leader of the National Trade Union Bloc, said

"politicians do not respect anything and do not keep their

promises." The average monthly wage in Romania is 1.4 million

lei (about $80). PB

[22] ROMANIAN RULING PARTY SAYS VASILE TO REMAIN PREMIER

Diaconescu, the head of the National Peasant Party, said on

22 November that Romanian Premier Radu Vasile will not be

sacked because such a move would hurt the country's image, AP

reported. Diaconescu said dismissing Vasile would "give the

image of political instability." Vasile had said at a youth

party congress the previous day that "the government will

continue the economic steps taken in 1999 irrespective of how

unpopular it becomes," Mediafax reported. On 22 November, the

National Bank announced that the country's medium- and long-

term foreign debt increased in August for the second month in

a row and now stands at $7.99 billion. PB

[23] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS PREMIER-DESIGNATE

on 22 November rejected the government of Premier-designate

Valeriu Bobutac, Reuters reported. Bobutac's proposed

government received 48 votes in favor, just short of the

necessary simple majority. Forty-two deputies abstained from

voting. Bobutac was supported by the 40 members of the

Communist Party and eight independent deputies. The

constitution allows the president to dissolve the parliament

if it fails "at least twice" to approve his candidate for the

post. President Petru Lucinschi has not said who his next

candidate for the post will be. PB

[24] CLINTON ADDRESSES TENS OF THOUSANDS IN SOFIA

Bill Clinton, in an address on Sofia's Nevsky Square on 22

November, praised Bulgaria as setting an example for

neighboring Yugoslavia, Reuters reported. Clinton told an

estimated 30,000 people that he hopes "the people of Serbia

can hear our voices when we say: If you choose as Buglaria

has chosen, you will regain the rightful place in Europe that

Mr. Milosevic has stolen from you." Clinton praised

Bulgarians for their support for NATO during the air campaign

against Yugoslavia. Clinton appeared in the square with

Bulgarian President Petar Stoyanov, Premier Ivan Kostov, and

several U.S. congressmen. Stoyanov and Clinton discussed

Bulgaria's chances for joining NATO and the stability pact

for the Balkans. Clinton also met with Kostov and promised to

help Bulgaria recoup the millions of dollars it lost in trade

because of the war in Yugoslavia. PB

[C] END NOTE

[25] COMPROMISE IN YEREVAN OVER NEW CABINET

The agreement reached 10 days ago by President Robert

Kocharian and Prime Minister Aram Sargsian over the

composition of the new cabinet defused tensions and ended

speculation that the former would either resign or fire the

latter. Since then, Kocharian has sought to strengthen his

position by naming one of his closest allies, former National

Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian, to head the presidential

administration.

The weeklong crisis centered on the choice of candidates

to head the National Security and Interior Ministries and the

political future of Minister for Industrial Infrastructures

Vahan Shirkhanian. Shirkhanian has admitted that he was

behind a 28 October statement that senior Defense Ministry

officials addressed to Kocharian calling for the firing of

the two power ministers and the prosecutor-general for their

failure to prevent the previous day's bloodbath in the

Armenian parliament.

In a one-hour interview broadcast on 16 November,

Kocharian disclosed that just hours after the 27 October

killings, a dozen close associates of the murdered premier,

including the latter's security adviser Andranik Kocharian

(no relation to the president), had presented him with a list

of the names of people whom they wished to see appointed to

key posts in the new government. In that list, Vahan

Shirkhanian, a former deputy defense minister, was nominated

for the post of premier.

Kocharian and Sargsian apparently found it relatively

easy to agree on the candidates to head the power ministries.

The horse-trading over Shirkhanian, however, proved more

difficult, but in talks that began on 12 November and

continued into the early hours of the following day,

Kocharian seemed to have agreed that Shirkhanian should

retain his post in the new cabinet. Kocharian also agreed to

the dismissal of Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian.

Major General Haik Harutiunian and Major General Karlos

Petrosian, the new interior and national security ministers,

are both non-partisan career police officers. Harutiunian,

44, has served in that ministry since 1981, most recently as

first deputy minister and commander of the Interior Ministry

troops. Petrosian, 49, is a graduate of the law faculty of

Yerevan State University worked his way up through the ranks

of the Interior Ministry to head its Investigation

Department. Both men served under Serzh Sarkisian when the

latter headed the combined Interior and National Security

Ministry.

Andranik Markarian, the leader of the majority

Miasnutiun faction within the parliament, told RFE/RL on 13

November that Miasnutiun, the president, and the premier had

agreed on how to resolve the deadlock. He noted that "We have

reached full understanding with the president," adding that

there are no problems now and there will be none in the

future. In his 16 November television address, Kocharian

similarly affirmed that "I had no differences with the

Miasnutiun bloc. Nor did I have differences with Aram

Sargsian." He went on to describe the new premier as "a very

sincere and honest person."

Given those statements, the question arises of whether

the press reports of deadlock and the president's possible

resignation were exaggerated or even invented. The first to

report that Kocharian had threatened to resign was a

prominent member of Miasnutiun. Hmayak Hovannissian told

RFE/RL on 10 November that "the president told us that either

he must be able to perform his duties or he will have to

quit." The next day, "Aravot" claimed that Kocharian had

threatened to resign if the parliament majority sided with

the prime minister over the government's composition. But on

12 November, "Haykakan Zhamanak" reported that while the

talks between Kocharian, Sarkisian, and parliamentary speaker

Armen Khachatrian had failed to yield agreement, "this time

Kocharian didn't speak about his possible resignation. On the

contrary, he said it is his duty to stay on because he has a

real chance to settle the Karabakh conflict."

Kocharian's press spokesman, Vahe Gabrielian, told

Interfax on 12 November, however, that "the president has

neither prepared a letter of resignation nor taken up the

matter with the parliament." OSCE Minsk Group co-chairman

Jean-Jacques Gaillard, who met with Kocharian in Yerevan on

11 November, told journalists after that meeting that the

president did not give the impression of a man about to

resign. And in an editorial published on 13 November,

"Aravot" suggested that to step down would be totally

contrary to Kocharian's nature.

In short, there are only two possible explanations that

accommodate all the above pieces of information: Either the

steel nerves and sense of timing that Kocharian displayed in

January 1998 prior to his predecessor's resignation failed

him momentarily. Or in order to raise the stakes during his

bargaining with parliamentary deputies, the president

suggested a course of action that he had no intention of

carrying out.

Despite the 12-13 November agreement, some observers

predict continuing tensions within the country's leadership.

Those observers base that prediction on the perceived

weakness of the president. They note that only a few

political parties expressed unequivocal support for him in

his standoff with Sargsian and the parliament, whereas most

merely called on both protagonists to seek a compromise in

the interest of restoring political stability.

But other commentators suggest that even if many parties

are ambivalent toward Kocharian, no political faction appears

to have an interest in forcing the president to stand down at

this juncture. Nor do there appear to be fundamental

disagreements over policy between the parliamentary majority,

government, and president that could precipitate a new

standoff.

23-11-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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