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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 210, 99-10-27Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 210, 27 October 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] COUNCIL OF EUROPE SAYS ARMENIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS 'FREE ANDFAIR'In a statement issued in Yerevan on 26 October, a delegation from the Council of Europe Local and Regional Authorities of Europe described the Armenian local elections two days earlier as free, fair, and a significant improvement on the 1996 local ballot, Noyan Tapan and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The delegation, whose members visited 88 polling stations, said the vote was well organized and that voting and the vote count were conducted in conformity with the election law. This positive assessment is likely to expedite Armenia's full membership in the Council of Europe. LF [02] U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE VISITS AZERBAIJANVisitingBaku on 26 October, Strobe Talbott assured Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev that the U.S. appreciates and will do its best to support Aliev's efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict, Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. Talbott is to travel to Yerevan on 27 October and then to Moscow (see above). The U.S. hopes to persuade Aliev and his Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian, to sign a formal settlement of the conflict at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in November, but Kocharian has said he considers the venue inappropriate (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 October 1999). Talbott and Aliev also discussed the planned Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline. Turkey and Azerbaijan are to sign four legal and political agreements that constitute the framework for that project at the Istanbul summit. LF [03] NEW AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER NAMEDPresident Aliev on 26October named parliamentary deputy and Democratic Independence Party co-chairman Vilayat Guliev as foreign minister, Reuters and Turan reported. Guliev, who is 48, is a philologist who speaks English and Persian. He has never worked in foreign policy or held any diplomatic post, according to Turan. Guliev replaces Tofik Zulfugarov, who submitted his resignation on 24 October to protest Aliev's policy on resolving the Karabakh conflict. LF [04] ANOTHER WESTERN OIL COMPANY PULLS OUT OF AZERBAIJANTheHouston-based oil company Conoco has announced the closure of its Baku office, following its failure after three years of talks to reach agreement with the Azerbaijan state oil company SOCAR on reviving the shallow-water sector of the Gyuneshli oil field, Business Wire and Interfax reported on 21 and 26 October, respectively. Meanwhile a SOCAR spokesman told Interfax on 21 October that he opposes the over-hasty implementation of plans for the company's partial privatization. Under those plans, which President Aliev has not yet approved, the state would retain a 15 percent stake in SOCAR and in the Azerkhimiya, Azerigaz and Azerenergiya companies. Thirty percent of the shares would be sold at a cash auction and the remaining 55 percent for vouchers. LF [05] RUSSIA CRITICIZES GEORGIA'S ASPIRATIONS TO NATO MEMBERSHIP...In an indirect response to a remark made the previous day byGeorgian President Eduard Shevardnadze to the "Financial Times," the Russian Foreign Ministry on 26 October issued a statement warning that NATO enlargement "does not help to strengthen stability in the Euro-Atlantic region," ITAR-TASS reported. Shevardnadze had told the London-based daily that if he is re-elected president next year, Georgia will campaign vigorously for NATO membership. The Russian Foreign Ministry statement said that doing so "is not the way to solve the problem of the security of one's own country or on the whole continent." In a separate development, an unnamed Russian Foreign Ministry official told Interfax on 26 October that Russia is interested in the strengthening of peace and stability in Georgia and in continuing its policy of pursuing friendly relations with that country. Also on 26 October, Shevardnadze and Russian President Yeltsin held a telephone conversation, no details of which have been disclosed. LF [06] ...AS GEORGIA DENOUNCES RUSSIAN OFFICER'S ELECTION COMMENTSThe Georgian Foreign Ministry on 26 October officiallyprotested as "provocative and irresponsible" a remark made by Major General Vyacheslav Borisov, commander of the Russian military base in Batumi, to the independent Rustavi-2 TV station two days earlier, ITAR-TASS and Caucasus Press reported. Borisov had said that the majority of troops at the base support the election alliance headed by Adjar Supreme Council chairman Aslan Abashidze. He said if that bloc wins the 31 October parliamentary elections, the new parliament will ratify the 1994 agreement allowing Russia to maintain military bases in Georgia for 25-30 years. The Georgian protest note said Borisov's statement constitutes interference into Georgia's internal affairs. LF [07] COMPOSITION OF NEW KAZAKH PARLIAMENT BECOMES CLEARERTheOtan Party, which supports Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev, will be the largest faction in the lower chamber of Kazakhstan's new parliament. It won 15 of the 47 seats contested in the second round of voting on 24 October, giving it a total of 23, Interfax reported on 26 October, quoting Central Electoral Commission member Tatyana Okhlopkova. The Civic Party, which also supports the Kazakh leadership, won three additional seats, giving it 12 in all. The Communist Party has three seats, the Agrarian Party two, and the Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan one. It is unclear how many of the remaining deputies are nominally independent but support the present government. LF [08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT SAYS 'ANYONE' MAY RUN FOR PARLIAMENT,PRESIDENTIn a 27 October speech marking the anniversary of Turkmenistan's 1991 declaration of independence, Saparmurat Niyazov promised that the 12 December parliamentary elections will be free and democratic and that anyone may run as a candidate, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported. He added that all candidates will be granted access to state television to publicize their election programs. Niyazov similarly said that "anyone" is free to contest the presidential elections due in 2002. LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] ALBANIA'S MAJKO SAYS HE QUIT TO END TENSIONSFormer PrimeMinister Pandeli Majko said in Tirana on 26 October that he decided to resign because political tensions within his own Socialist Party prevented him from doing his job (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 October 1999). Majko's move came just two weeks after he lost a battle for the party leadership with former Prime Minister Fatos Nano. The Socialists are expected to nominate Deputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta for Majko's job on 27 October. Nano and Foreign Minister Paskal Milo stressed that there will be continuity between the old and new government. Meta is known as a close associate of Majko's. AP reported that the controversial Nano came under strong pressure from Albania's Western allies not to take the premiership himself. PM [10] SECURITY TIGHTENED IN TIRANAPolice increased security inthe capital on 26 October, apparently fearing a fresh outbreak of the gunshots and violence that often accompany political changes in Albania. Police stopped cars with license plates from outside Tirana and checked drivers' documents. Majko said: "Yesterday after news of my resignation broke, there were no gunshots in Tirana. Friends and adversaries, thanks for your respect and silence," Reuters reported. Firing guns into the air is a traditional sign of celebration in many parts of the Balkans. PM [11] DJINDJIC CALLS FOR DEAL ON SANCTIONSDemocratic Party leaderZoran Djindjic said in Belgrade on 26 October that Western countries should lift sanctions against Serbia in return for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's agreeing to early elections. "Sanctions are both outdated and ineffective, and the idea is to 'trade' them for early elections, regardless of the results.... If the opposition wins, there is no reason for sanctions any more. If the majority of people votes for Milosevic, then [the effects of Milosevic's rule are] the problem of those people. What's the point of saying: 'You either get rid of Milosevic or you will be ruined as a nation?'" Djindjic concluded, according to Reuters. The opposition leader added that he recently "passed on" his idea to U.S. special envoy James Dobbins, who found it "interesting" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999). PM [12] BELGRADE PUBLISHERS FINED $9,000...A Belgrade court ruled on26 October that the publishers of the private daily "Danas" must pay $9,000 for having violated Serbia's draconian 1998 media law. Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj sued the daily for having published an interview with Montenegro's outspoken Deputy Prime Minister Novak Kilibarda. In that text, Kilibarda said that Seselj planned to expel Montenegrins from Serbia or make them wear "yellow badges" if Podgorica declares its independence from Belgrade. The Serbian regime has made frequent use of the press law to put financial pressure on private media. PM [13] ...WHILE OPPOSITION EDITOR ALSO FACES LAWSUITCedomirJovanovic, who is editor of the opposition Alliance for Change's publication "Promene," said in Belgrade on 27 October that he has received a subpoena from a local court. He is charged with unspecified violations of the media law. "It seems that the trial will be held within 24 hours," Jovanovic said, adding he will not appear personally before the court. He charged that "the lawsuit is just another pressure on us and the Alliance for Change," AP reported. PM [14] BELGRADE COMMUTERS PROTEST TRANSPORT DELAYSHundreds ofangry commuters staged a spontaneous protest in the Serbian capital on 26 October, Reuters reported. Demonstrators told reporters that they are tired of having to wait up to two to three hours to get home each evening. Serbia's public transport system has greatly deteriorated over the past 10 years because of a lack of fuel and spare parts. PM [15] TALKS BETWEEN SERBIAN, MONTENEGRIN PARTIES ENDSpokesmen forthe Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and Montenegro's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) said in Belgrade on 26 October that talks on the future relations between the two republics ended without agreement. The discussions will resume at an unspecified time. The DPS spokesman said that the next round of talks will be between "governments, parties, and experts." The SPS official, however, said that the discussion will take place "between parties and in the parliament," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 October 1999). PM [16] SERBIAN OPPOSITION, CROWN PRINCE TO RALLY DIASPORAVladanBatic, who heads the Alliance for Change, said in Belgrade on 26 October that a meeting will "soon" be held of Serbs living abroad "to involve the diaspora in ending the current crisis in Serbia." Batic added that the initiative for the meeting came from Crown Prince Aleksandar Karadjordjevic, who is the claimant to the throne. Aleksandar is a London-based businessman who has frequently said that he is "willing to serve his people" if asked. Observers note that the monarchist tradition is strong among Serbs. PM [17] NATO TO MOVE KOSOVA LOGISTICS CENTER TO SLOVENIA?TheAtlantic alliance and Slovenia have agreed that NATO will move the "logistics center" of its supply operation for Kosova from Thessaloniki to Koper, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 26 October. NATO supplies will then proceed to Kosova via the Montenegrin port of Bar. A spokesman for the Slovenian Foreign Ministry said that the agreement is a business deal and does not mean that Slovenia has granted NATO a base. The pact will come into effect once Montenegrin authorities agree. Earlier this year, Greece insisted that NATO make Thessaloniki the headquarters for most of its Kosova operations. That arrangement has, however, been widely criticized in other NATO countries and in Kosova as impractical and expensive. PM [18] HAGUE COURT: MILOSEVIC TO FACE FRESH WAR CRIMES CHARGESAspokeswoman for the Hague-based war crimes tribunal said in Prishtina on 26 October that Milosevic may soon face additional indictments for war crimes committed by his forces in Kosova. In May, the court indicted him and four of his top aides for atrocities committed in Kosova in 1999. The new charges will involve war crimes from 1998, she added. The spokeswoman noted that on 31 October, international forensics experts will suspend for the winter their work in exhuming mass graves in Kosova. In related news, forensics experts on 26 October exhumed a mass grave of 14 Muslims in Jelec, near the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo. Some 24,000 persons are still listed as missing from the 1992-1995 conflict in Bosnia. PM [19] WORKERS STAGE PROTEST IN BOSNIASome 3,000 workers from thetextile and rubber industries demonstrated in Sarajevo on 27 October for better pay and job security. Speakers made remarks such as "Starvation and idleness are killing us," and "Politicians and ministers shouldn't be surprised if we ask for their removal in the near future," AP reported. This is the latest in a series of labor protests in the Muslim- controlled areas (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 October 1999). PM [20] CROATIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES CONTROVERSIAL ELECTION LAWTheupper house of the parliament adopted a new electoral law, which the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) recently proposed (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 October 1999). The controversial measure guarantees representation for the generally pro-HDZ diaspora. The exact number of seats for the HDZ will depend on the number of Croats living abroad who cast their votes. The law reduces the number of seats reserved for members of the dwindling Serbian minority from three to one. The lower house is expected to approve the measure on 29 October. The EU, the U.S., and the Croatian opposition have repeatedly warned Zagreb to remove electoral legislation that gives an unfair advantage to the HDZ. PM [21] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT COMPLAINS ABOUT ORPHANAGE REPORTSEmilConstantinescu on 26 October complained about recent reports in the international media about the "shocking conditions" in the country's orphanages. Constantinescu said Romania "does not need such help" from the foreign media, saying the orphanage problems were "inherited from the Communist regime." According to official statistics, there are 33,000 orphans and 98,000 disabled children living in Romanian institutions. The number of institutionalized children has reportedly risen by a fifth since 1989. Constantinescu also said Romania has managed to keep up with its debt repayment scheduled thanks to the "great sacrifices" of its people. VG [22] MOLDOVAN PARTY MAKES ITS PARTICIPATION IN GOVERNMENTCONDITIONALParty of Democratic Forces leader Valeriu Matei on 26 October said his party will remain in the governing coalition provided its partners fulfill certain conditions, BASA-Press reported. Matei said one of those conditions is support for the legalization of the Bessarabian Metropolitan Church. He said it is "too early" to reveal the other conditions. VG [23] BULGARIAN, TURKISH PREMIERS INAUGURATE CONSTRUCTION OFHYDROELECTRIC PROJECTBulgarian Prime Minister Ivan Kostov and his Turkish counterpart, Bulent Ecevit, participated in a ceremony inaugurating the construction of the joint Gorna Arda hydroelectric system, BTA reported. The system will consist of three dams on the Gorna Arda River in Bulgaria and three hydroelectric plants. Bulgaria and Turkey will share the estimated $220 million costs of the project. The project is expected to create about 3,000 jobs in southern Bulgaria, where some 800,000 ethnic Turks live. Ecevit said he is grateful that Bulgaria has guaranteed its ethnic Turkish minority equal rights. VG [C] END NOTE[24] BETWEEN THE RUSSIAN AND BELARUSIAN SCENARIOSby Jan MaksymiukRegardless of who wins this year's presidential elections in Ukraine, no one should expect the country's dire economic situation to improve soon. That is the only certainty with regard to Ukraine at the present time. Ukraine's foreign debt stands at $12 billion, of which $3.1 billion is due to be paid next year, while the National Bank's reserves total $1.3 billion. The country is thus facing a default on its foreign debt. Meanwhile, the government's "domestic" debt, in unpaid wages, pensions, and social benefits, totals 10 billion hryvni ($2.5 billion). Some 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and real unemployment stands at 25 percent. Some 17 percent of Ukraine's labor force is occupied in the shadow economy, which accounts for more than 50 percent of the country's economic activity. Corruption is pervasive. And one-third of the population wants to leave the country because of economic woes. Even if these data--taken from the newspaper "Den," which supports Yevhen Marchuk's presidential bid and is very hostile to incumbent President Leonid Kuchma--are exaggerated, the true picture of Ukraine's socio-economic condition is unlikely to be much rosier. All observers of the Ukrainian political scene agree that none of the presidential hopefuls will obtain more than 50 percent of the vote on 31 October, meaning there will be a runoff on 14 November. Observers also tend to agree that Kuchma will be one of the two participants in that second round. However, it is anybody's guess whom the incumbent will be running against. Ukrainian opinion polls suggest that the most likely candidates to reach the runoff with Kuchma are Natalya Vitrenko, Petro Symonenko, Oleksandr Moroz, and Yevhen Marchuk. However, many hopefuls, as well as political analysts, have repeatedly cast doubt on the objectivity of polls in Ukraine, claiming they are biased. Of the front-runners, Petro Symonenko, the uncharismatic leader of the Communist Party, appears the rival against whom Kuchma would prefer to compete on 14 November. Many analysts argue that in such a case, Kuchma's election team could successfully apply Boris Yeltsin's campaign tactics of 1995, when the Russian president faced Communist Gennadii Zyuganov in the run-off and, with the concerted help of Russian electronic media, effectively instilled the fear of a "red revenge" into the electorate. Those analysts assert that Kuchma could successfully use the same strategy against Symonenko. They also point out that Kuchma's campaign is already closely following the "Russian scenario": the Ukrainian incumbent, like his Russian counterpart four years ago, is employing the services of a host of pop stars and celebrities to promote him in the provinces. Kuchma's potential duel with Progressive Socialist leader Natalya Vitrenko would be more difficult and its outcome less easy to predict. That scenario could be called the "Belarusian" one because of Vitrenko's extremely populist election ticket, which strongly recalls Alyaksandr Lukashenka's in the 1994 Belarusian presidential vote. The 2 October attempt on Vitrenko's life has most likely boosted her surprisingly high popularity. The unpredictability of a possible Vitrenko challenge to Kuchma lies in the fact that her electorate cannot be defined in terms of its social or economic status. Vitrenko's populism finds its appeal among different social layers of the Ukrainian population, whose only common denominator may be disappointment with Kuchma's rule. It is easy to make mistakes in trying to neutralize the populist appeal in the post-Soviet area, as the case of Belarus five years ago amply demonstrated. Many would argue that Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz's possible runoff could be the worst scenario for Kuchma. Despite his fierce and not always fair criticism of the incumbent, Moroz is seen as a moderate leftist and, in contrast to Symonenko, a likeable one. In the second round, Moroz might be able to enlist the support of both Symonenko's and parliamentary speaker Oleksandr Tkachenko's electorate--a goal he failed to achieve while campaigning within the so- called Kaniv Four election alliance of Marchuk, Tkachenko, and Volodymyr Oliynyk. However, the failure to arrive at a political compromise even with Tkachenko (who is now supporting Symonenko) means that Moroz is less likely to appear in the runoff than either Symonenko or Vitrenko. Marchuk's chances of reaching the second round seem even more remote than Moroz's. In fact, Marchuk is seeking support among the same electorate as Kuchma--that is, among those supporting both Ukraine's pro-market reform and strong statehood. Voters may rather prefer Kuchma, who has already proven himself to be a reformer, if only a half-hearted one, and a staunch supporter of an independent Ukraine. Ukraine's presidential election campaign has so far been less than exemplary, to say the least. It has been characterized by language that is invariably harsh, very often offensive, and sometimes vulgar. The administration keeps the electronic media--both state-controlled and commercial--on a tight rein, not allowing those media to give more air time to Kuchma's rivals than was prescribed by the Central Electoral Commission. At the same time, Kuchma receives extensive coverage in the state media as the incumbent head of state. It appears, however, that neither Ukrainian citizens nor the international community would protest very much if Kuchma were elected for another five years. For many inside and outside Ukraine, such an outcome would mean continuation and stability, even if embarrassingly low political and economic standards continue to prevail. 27-10-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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