RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 145, 99-07-28

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 145, 28 July 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSESSES DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLICY

[02] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

[03] AZERBAIJANI FRONTIER RESIDENTS PROTEST POST-SHOOTING

[04] KAZAKH LEADERS ASSESS ECONOMIC SHORTFALL...

[05] ...SOFT-PEDAL ON PRIVATIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

[06] KYRGYZSTAN UNVEILS FOOD PROGRAM

[07] KYRGYZSTAN RISKS FORFEITING UN VOTING RIGHT

[08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT APPROVES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIAN MINISTER REJECTS HAGUE CHARGES AGAINST TUDJMAN

[10] BOSNIAN CROAT LEADER SAYS EXTREMISTS FOLLOWED ZAGREB'S

[11] BOSNIA READY FOR SUMMIT...

[12] ...AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

[13] WESTENDORP: BOSNIA NEEDS WORK

[14] AVRAMOVIC URGES AID FOR SERBIA

[15] OPPOSITION DRAFTS STABILITY PLAN FOR SERBIA

[16] BELGRADE PLANNING WAVE OF TRIALS?

[17] UNHCR CONCERNED FOR SERBIAN REFUGEES

[18] MAJOR KOSOVA ATROCITY CONFIRMED

[19] KFOR FINDS UCK ARMS CACHE

[20] ALBANIA'S BERISHA CALLS FOR CONSENSUS

[21] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL WEALTH

[22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BLASTS KOSOVA POLICIES

[23] ROMANIA, ARMENIA SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT

[24] KURDISH REBELS THREATEN MOLDOVA...

[25] ...WHILE LUCINSCHI CANCELS TURKEY VACATION

[26] U.S. VICE PRESIDENT LAUDS BULGARIA

[27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY TO LOSE IMMUNITY?

[C] END NOTE

[28] THE SEDAKA DOCTRINE VERSUS THE LAW OF ENTROPY

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSESSES DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLICY

interview with "Moskovskie novosti" cited by Noyan Tapan on

27 July, Robert Kocharian expressed satisfaction at the

domestic political stability resulting from the 31 May

parliamentary elections. Kocharian stressed his respect for

parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian and noted the

willingness of the Miasnutyun faction, of which Demirchian is

co-leader, to cooperate with other political forces.

Kocharian said he anticipates that Armenia will be admitted

to full membership in the Council of Europe in late 1999 or

early next year. He expressed doubt that NATO will accept

Baku's invitation to establish a military base in Azerbaijan

and declined to comment on the possibility of routing a

Caspian oil pipeline via Armenia, stressing that the oil

export should not be linked to the search for a solution to

the Karabakh conflict. Kocharian also stressed Armenia's

readiness to establish diplomatic relations with Turkey. LF

[02] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

Heidar Aliev signed a decree on 27 July scheduling the

country's long-overdue municipal elections for 12 December,

ITAR-TASS reported. Aliev also signed into law the bill on

municipal elections passed by the parliament on 2 July (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 7 July 1999). The local elections to

between 3,500-4,000 municipal councils will be conducted

under the majoritarian system. Speaking at a news conference

in Baku on 25 July, parliamentary speaker Murtuz Alesqerov

dismissed as "slanderous" claims made two days earlier by

National Independence Party of Azerbaijan chairman Etibar

Mamedov that changes recommended by the Council of Europe

were made to 14 articles of the bill after it had been passed

by the parliament. LF

[03] AZERBAIJANI FRONTIER RESIDENTS PROTEST POST-SHOOTING

Representatives of residents of the town of

Sadarak, on the border between Azerbaijan's exclave of

Nakhichevan and Turkey, told journalists on 27 July that

tensions in the district remain high following the 12 July

disturbances in which one person was killed and dozens

injured, Turan reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 July

1999). The villagers claimed that residents are being

arbitrarily detained by police for questioning, and they

demanded the dismissal of the local customs official they

believe is responsible for the fighting. They also demanded

that Azerbaijani President Aliev take control of the

investigation into the incident. The official originally

appointed to conduct the investigation has been dismissed,

according to Turan. LF

[04] KAZAKH LEADERS ASSESS ECONOMIC SHORTFALL...

Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev told a cabinet session on

27 July that in the first six months of 1999, Astana and 10

of the country's 14 oblasts registered a decline in output,

compared with the same period in 1998, Interfax reported.

Budget revenues amounted to 86 percent of the planned amount,

and the total taxes collected are inadequate to fund all

state programs. On the plus side, Finance Minister Uraz

Dzhandosov told the cabinet meeting that Kazakhstan earned

almost $190 million from privatization during the first half

of the year. He said the government's share in another 10

major companies, mostly in the oil and mining sector, will

also be sold off. Oil and production during the first six

months totaled 14.2 million tons, which was 5.5 percent above

the figure for 1998 but still short of the planned 14.27

million tons. LF

[05] ...SOFT-PEDAL ON PRIVATIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

the majority of the country's population is neither morally

nor financially ready for the privatization of land, which he

said will therefore be implemented "stage by stage,"

according to Interfax. He hinted that the new law on

privatization of land will favor those engaged in the

agricultural sector and bar the sale of land for other

purposes, including "the burying of poisonous waste." LF

[06] KYRGYZSTAN UNVEILS FOOD PROGRAM

Boris Silaev outlined Kyrgyzstan's national food program at

an international conference in Bishkek on 27 July, Interfax

reported. The program, for which the EU has provided a grant

of 8.5 million euros [$8.55 million], is intended to ensure

uninterrupted supplies of basic foods to all regions of the

country. Silaev noted that the present problems and delays in

doing so could negatively affect political stability. LF

[07] KYRGYZSTAN RISKS FORFEITING UN VOTING RIGHT

the UN $1 million in membership fees and will be stripped of

its voting right unless it pays at least half that sum by

September, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 27 July. UN

representative Zamira Eshmambetova told journalists in the

Kyrgyz capital that the country has no funds to pay the debt.

Georgia had its UN voting right restored last week after

paying its annual $200,000 membership dues but still has

outstanding debts to the UN totaling $7.2 million, according

to Interfax on 22 July. LF

[08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT APPROVES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

session on 27 July, Saparmurat Niyazov approved

Turkmenistan's development program for 2001-2010, Russian

agencies reported. That program entails massive increases in

the extraction of oil and natural gas, with production of the

former slated to rise from 6.3 million tons to 27-30 million

tons. The increase in gas production is presumably predicated

on implementation of the planed Trans-Caspian gas pipeline

project, for which the Georgian government expressed support

on 27 July. More moderate increases are anticipated in cotton

and grain production. The country's population is expected to

increase from the present 5 million to 6.5 million in 2005.

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[09] CROATIAN MINISTER REJECTS HAGUE CHARGES AGAINST TUDJMAN

that the Hague-based war crimes tribunal has become a "means

of political pressure against a sovereign Croatia by those

who stand behind" the court, "Jutarnji list" reported. He did

not elaborate. Separovic was responding to comments by a

court prosecutor that Croatian President Franjo Tudjman is

ultimately responsible for the actions of the Herzegovinian

Croat military in Bosnia during the 1992-1995 war (see

"RFE/RL Balkan Report," 27 July 1999). Major Zagreb dailies

quote several other Tudjman supporters as also accusing the

court of playing politics. According to the same newspapers,

several opposition politicians and journalists stress that

the court is a politically neutral institution and that

justice must be allowed to take its course. PM

[10] BOSNIAN CROAT LEADER SAYS EXTREMISTS FOLLOWED ZAGREB'S

Stjepan Kljuic, who was the moderate political leader

of the republic's ethnic Croats until he resigned in February

1992, told the tribunal in The Hague on 27 July that the

hard-line leadership of the Croatian Democratic Community

(HDZ) carried out Zagreb's policies during the 1992-1995 war.

These polices included seeking a deal with the Bosnian Serb

leadership to partition the republic between the Croats and

Serbs at the expense of the Muslims, Kljuic added. He said

that Zagreb's top representatives in the Herzegovinian HDZ

were Dario Kordic and the late Mate Boban. PM

[11] BOSNIA READY FOR SUMMIT...

and Zivko Radisic, who are the three members of the joint

presidency, said in Sarajevo on 27 July that preparations are

complete for the 29-30 July summit on Balkan reconstruction

and stability. Foreign Minister Jadranko Prlic noted that

representatives from the Balkan countries participating in

the summit have agreed on a final declaration, which stresses

democratization and human rights. The only point in the text

on which the participants have yet to agree is that dealing

with Serbia and the war in Kosova. Prlic added that he

expects the participants to reach agreement on that point by

the time the conference opens, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. Some 4,000 SFOR troops will provide security for

the gathering, a NATO spokesman said. PM

[12] ...AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

parliament passed a resolution on 27 July calling on all

government bodies to do everything possible to fulfill the

conditions necessary for Bosnia's admission to the Council of

Europe. The lower house passed a resolution urging the

presidency to negotiate agreements on dual citizenship with

Zagreb and Belgrade as soon as diplomatic relations are

established with Yugoslavia. The lower house also approved a

law on Bosnian citizenship, which the international

community's Carlos Westendorp previously issued as a decree.

PM

[13] WESTENDORP: BOSNIA NEEDS WORK

Carlos Westendorp said at the UN in New York on 27 July that

there will soon be "social unrest" in Bosnia unless the more

than 40 percent unemployment rate is cut. He stressed that

privatization and foreign investment are the keys to creating

jobs, AP reported. Westendorp noted that the authorities have

done little to promote free enterprise and that Bosnia

suffers from a lack of entrepreneurs. PM

[14] AVRAMOVIC URGES AID FOR SERBIA

stopped hyperinflation during his tenure as National Bank

director in 1994, told the "Berliner Zeitung" of 28 July that

continuing economic isolation of Serbia will lead to a

worsening of social conditions. That development, in turn,

will not necessarily bring about the overthrow of Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic but will certainly contribute to

growing anti-foreign sentiments among the population.

Avramovic stressed that Serbia needs hard currency to buy

fuel and raw materials for its industries. He argued that

expanded industrial output is the key to reviving Serbia's

economy. Many observers believe that the prestigious and

popular elderly banker will head the first post-Milosevic

government. Avramovic will attend the Balkan summit as the

guest of Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. PM

[15] OPPOSITION DRAFTS STABILITY PLAN FOR SERBIA

economists, opposition leaders, intellectuals, and

representatives of the Serbian Orthodox Church announced in

Belgrade on 27 July that they have drafted a stability plan

for Serbia, Reuters reported. The text calls for a package of

political and economic reforms. The first step would be to

set up a transitional government with a one-year mandate to

create the legal and political conditions for free and

democratic elections. A spokesman for the group stressed that

Serbia must avoid what he called a "Bucharest scenario," a

reference to the violent overthrow of Romanian dictator

Nicolae Ceausescu in December 1989. PM

[16] BELGRADE PLANNING WAVE OF TRIALS?

heads the Yugoslav Human Rights Lawyers' Committee, said in

Belgrade on 27 July that the authorities are preparing legal

proceedings against up to 28,000 men for having refused to

answer their military call-up notices during the war in

Kosova. She stressed that the authorities plan to use legal

measures to punish members of the opposition. On 28 July,

Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic appeared before the

Supreme Military Court to answer charges of draft-dodging. He

told reporters that he hopes that the publicity from his

trial will serve to hasten the end of the Milosevic regime.

The previous day, he said on Montenegrin Television that "the

army must urgently do everything it can to remove Milosevic

from power if it wants to defend the country." PM

[17] UNHCR CONCERNED FOR SERBIAN REFUGEES

in Belgrade on 27 July that his agency urgently needs $20

million to obtain food and shelter for some 173,000 Serbian

and Roma refugees from Kosova. He added that the UNCHR does

not know where all the refugees are or what needs they have.

He added that the Serbian government "has made no

preparation" for helping the refugees through the winter. The

spokesman said that most refugees are housed in schools and

will need new quarters once the school year begins, Reuters

reported. PM

[18] MAJOR KOSOVA ATROCITY CONFIRMED

organization Human Rights Watch published a 25-page report on

27 July confirming earlier reports that Serbian forces killed

47 ethnic Albanian civilians on 17 April near Gllogovc. The

dead included 23 children under 15 years of age. The Serbs

threw a grenade into the room where they were holding the

civilians and then shot those who tried to escape. PM

[19] KFOR FINDS UCK ARMS CACHE

said in Prishtina on 27 July that KFOR soldiers on 24 July

found an unguarded arms cache near Prizren "large...enough to

support a platoon." Representatives of the Kosova Liberation

Army (UCK) told NATO that the illegal cache was theirs,

Reuters reported. PM

[20] ALBANIA'S BERISHA CALLS FOR CONSENSUS

Party chairman Sali Berisha told party leaders in Tirana on

27 July that the party needs more "democratization and

openness" in its internal discussions. He added that the

Democrats should also work to "reach a consensus with other

political forces on major problems facing the country," dpa

reported. Berisha has taken several steps recently to reduce

the polarization that bedevils the country's political life

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 1999). PM

[21] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL WEALTH

Meidani said in Tirana on 27 July that the authorities should

legalize the booming shadow economy, Reuters reported. He

stressed that legalizing wealth regardless of its origin

would encourage entrepreneurs to reinvest their gains in

Albania and discourage cash outflow. The daily "Gazeta

Shqiptare" wrote that Meidani's suggestion makes a mockery of

the legal system. PM

[22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BLASTS KOSOVA POLICIES

Social Democracy in Romania first deputy chairman Adrian

Nastase told journalists in Turnu Severin on 27 July that

Foreign Minister Andrei Plesu "never understood the stakes"

of the Kosova conflict and that Romania "placed all its bets

on one card, and lost." He said that during the conflict,

Romania followed a policy of "passivity and servility" and

"supported decisions that backed the interests of other

countries" instead of "having the courage to stand up for its

own interests," Romanian Radio reported. MS

[23] ROMANIA, ARMENIA SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT

Defense Minister General Vagharshak Arutiunian and his

Romanian counterpart, Victor Babiuc, on 26 July signed a

framework cooperation agreement between their ministries, an

RFE/RL correspondent in Bucharest reported. The agreement

focuses on collaboration in the defense industry, military

training, and the protection of military information. Also on

26 July, Foreign Minister Plesu met with visiting Pakistani

Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz and discussed bilateral

relations and the Kashmir crisis. The following day, Aziz and

Finance Minister Decebal Train Remes signed an agreement on

avoiding double taxation. MS

[24] KURDISH REBELS THREATEN MOLDOVA...

cited by Flux, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) said the

recent abduction of Kurdish leader Cevat Soysal (see "RFE/RL

Newsline, 22 July 1999) "is a continuation of the plot

against President Abdullah Ocalan," adding that the PKK and

its allies have "every right to respond to international

terrorism and abductions." The declaration said that "sooner

or later, Moldova, Kenya, and other forces that allied

themselves with Turkey will account for their deeds."

Presidential spokesman Anatol Golea said on 26 July that it

"cannot be ruled out" that leaks to the media on Moldova's

alleged involvement were purposefully misleading. Golea said

that during a visit to Turkey on 22-23 July, National

Security Minister Valeriu Pasat "demanded explanations" from

Ankara. The government of Bulent Ecevit later denied any

Moldovan involvement in the affair. MS

[25] ...WHILE LUCINSCHI CANCELS TURKEY VACATION

Lucinschi has canceled a planned vacation in Turkey, ITAR-

TASS reported on 28 July, citing Moldpres. Presidential

spokesman Golea said "vacationing in Turkey is now risky for

Moldovans," adding that in view of the Kurdish threats,

security in Moldova itself has been tightened. MS

[26] U.S. VICE PRESIDENT LAUDS BULGARIA

Minister Ivan Kostov on 27 July, Al Gore said that "the

Bulgarian experience...on ways to grapple with a number of

issues can be of great value to other states in the region

and to Kosova in particular," AP reported. Gore said the

successes of the Bulgarian cabinet "in promoting and

implementing necessary economic and political reforms in the

past two years have been well matched by your government's

work to combat organized crime and corruption." MS

[27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY TO LOSE IMMUNITY?

Filchev on 27 July asked the parliament to strip Euroleft

deputy Tsvetelin Kanchev of his immunity on suspicion of

involvement in "serious crimes," AP reported, citing state

radio. An official from the Prosecutor-General's Office said

the precise nature of the charges will be announced to the

legislature later, while Filchev said that if the house lifts

Kanchev's immunity, he will order his arrest. MS

[C] END NOTE

[28] THE SEDAKA DOCTRINE VERSUS THE LAW OF ENTROPY

In coming weeks, the unexpected announcement on 23 July

that leaders of the self-proclaimed right-center groups have

formed a coalition may seem a little less surprising. After

all, Anatolii Chubais, leader of Pravoe Delo (Right Cause),

Sergei Kirienko, leader of Novaya Sila (New Force), and

Konstantin Titov, informal leader of Golos Rossii (Voice of

Russia), have agreed only to a "Declaration of a Union" and

its theses. They have not yet approved something more

substantial--a common party list and platform. As a result,

the new and as yet unnamed coalition consists primarily of an

agreement to agree sometime later.

Indeed, on Russian soil, just the opposite of Neil

Sedaka's song appears to be true: breaking up is NOT hard to

do. If any general rule applies, it may be the law of

entropy--that organized systems tend to become disorganized.

As the date of the election approaches, fears of smaller

groups that they may not overcome the 5 percent barrier could

drive them together, but until that happens, personal

ambition and conflicting philosophies appear more likely to

cause fragile alliances to fall apart.

In recent weeks, for example, the Democratic Party of

Russia opted to leave Golos Rossii, and both the Agrarian

Party and the Movement to Support the Army have declared

their intention this time around to run independently of the

Communist Party in upcoming State Duma elections. Communist

Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov pooh-poohed these

announcements, hinting at that time that he had some

mysterious plan to somehow unite all left forces. With the

announcement on 27 July of the new coalition called Za Pobedu

(For Victory), Zyuganov appears to be putting a new label on

an old package since leaders of both the Agrarian Party and

Movement to Support the Army continue to insist that they

will participate in the election separately.

Regardless of how these moves work out, the right-

center's announcement of a new union might have a galvanizing

effect on the efforts of Otechestvo and Vsya Rossiya (VR) to

unite. At their next meeting, leaders of those two groups may

be tempted to issue their own press release declaring a

meeting of minds similar to that supposedly experienced by

the right-center groups. They may also want to counter

increasing skepticism in the Russian media and among

political analysts about an Otechestvo-VR alliance.

On 23 July, "Izvestiya" declared that the situation

around the proposed coalition had become "more tense," noting

that numerous negotiations between the two blocs have not yet

yielded any noticeable results. The previous day,

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" argued that Otechestvo "is the only

realistic partner" left for VR, since the VR governors cannot

find points of agreement with Golos Rossii or former Prime

Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin's Our Home is Russia (NDR).

However, according to the daily, many governors "dislike"

Luzhkov and display a certain envy of Luzhkov's successes in

Moscow. Of course, "Nezavisimaya gazeta," which receives

financial backing from Boris Berezovskii's LogoVAZ group, may

not have the most objective view of either Luzhkov, an enemy

of Berezovskii, or Luzhkov's potential allies. But even more

disinterested sources, such as "EWI's Russian Regional

Report," have concluded that Luzhkov's current battle with

the Kremlin could put him at odds with Shaimiev, who is more

supportive of President Boris Yeltsin.

At the level of policy, the two so-called governors'

groupings, VR and Golos Rossii, appear to have more in common

with each other than with any of the other established

political movements such as Otechestvo or NDR. Both groups

are seeking increased power for the regions. In the most

recent example of this aim, Golos Rossii leader Titov at a

recent meeting in Khabarovsk suggested that an amendment to

the law on presidential elections be adopted that would

require the country's leader to win the popular vote in at

least 45 of Russia's 89 regions in order to become president.

VR members made a similar suggestion in May at their founding

congress in May, proposing that all deputies from the State

Duma be elected on the basis of the country's 450 electoral

districts--rather than half by party lists, as under the

current system.

On economic policy, the view of the two groups tend to

diverge, with VR favoring "state capitalism" and Golos Rossii

hewing to a more liberal economic line. But the real bloc-

breaker is more likely personality and/or personal ambition.

Shaimiev is only VR's de facto leader; officially, the group

has no head and claims that its ranks are free of members

with higher political ambitions or claims to top Kremlin

posts. However, Titov, like Luzhkov, is believed to be a

presidential contender.

Because the forces driving the politicians apart appear

stronger than those driving them together, announcements of

new unions are likely to be more frequent than the actual

formation of genuine new parties or even electoral

coalitions. But the fact that various groups are talking to

one another highlights the growing power of elections in and

of themselves: As every politician knows, it is usually

better to be on the winning side even if one has to change

his label or even his positions in order to be there.

28-07-99

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URL: http://www.rferl.org

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