RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 139, 99-07-20

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 139, 20 July 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN NEWSPAPER PREDICTS EXPANDED WAR WITH AZERBAIJAN

[02] STALIN WAS 'RUSSIAN' PHENOMENON, SAYS GRANDSON

[03] SHEVARDNADZE WILL 'PROBABLY' RUN AGAIN...

[04] ...WELCOMES GROWING TIES WITH U.S.

[05] GEORGIA RAISES THRESHOLD FOR PARLIAMENTARY REPRESENTATION

[06] CENTRAL ASIANS TO FORM SECURITIES MARKET

[07] KAZAKHSTAN STEPS UP PRESSURE OVER BAIKONUR

[08] KYRGYZSTAN, RUSSIA SIGN BORDER CONTROL ACCORD

[09] TAJJIK MUSLIM LEADER RE-ELECTED

[10] UZBEKISTAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES AFGHAN PEACE PLAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] REHN CALLS FOR 'NEW MECHANISM' AGAINST RIGHTS VIOLATORS

[12] U.S. REJECTS AMNESTY FOR MILOSEVIC

[13] CLINTON TO ATTEND BALKAN SUMMIT

[14] EU REACHES 'MESSY COMPROMISE' ON BALKAN RECONSTRUCTION

[15] DJINDJIC WANTS 'CONCRETE PLAN' FOR EU ADMISSION

[16] BELGRADE CAMPAIGN AGAINST 'CRONYISM'?

[17] BELGRADE SAYS UN VIOLATES ITS SOVEREIGNTY

[18] UN TRIES TO GET RUGOVA'S PARTY ON TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL

[19] WORLD BANK GIVES $40 MILLION TO ALBANIA

[20] GREECE EXPELS MORE ALBANIANS

[21] CROATIA REBUFFS ARBOUR

[22] ROMANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DEFENDS CONVICTED GENERALS

[23] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT DENIES ALLEGATIONS OF ESPIONAGE

[24] TRANSDNIESTER LEADER ON KYIV SUMMIT

[25] RUSSIA REBUFFS BULGARIA ON AIR CORRIDORS FOR KFOR TROOPS

[26] BULGARIA BANS USE OF POLICE FORCE AGAINST JOURNALISTS

[C] END NOTE

[27] HAS HUNGARY OVERSTATED ITS VOJVODINA CASE?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN NEWSPAPER PREDICTS EXPANDED WAR WITH AZERBAIJAN

President Heidar Aliev expressed satisfaction with their

recent meeting, the Armenian newspaper "Golos Armenii"

suggested that Azerbaijan will eventually earn enough money

from oil and gas exports to be able to finance a new and

larger war against Armenia. Writing in that newspaper's 17

July issue, V. Grigoryan said that "it will then become

increasingly harder for Armenia to maintain military parity

and a full-scale war will be unavoidable in 10 years' time."

PG

[02] STALIN WAS 'RUSSIAN' PHENOMENON, SAYS GRANDSON

Moscow on 18 July to a meeting of those opposed to burying

Lenin, Yevgeny Dzhugashvili said that his grandfather was

"not a Georgian but a Russian phenomenon," Caucasus Press

reported on 19 July. And he said that those who try to blame

Stalin on the Georgians are making a major mistake. PG

[03] SHEVARDNADZE WILL 'PROBABLY' RUN AGAIN...

conference on 19 July, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze

said that he will "probably" run for a second term but added

that "to be serious, I haven't yet decided," Reuters

reported. In other comments, reported by Caucasus Press,

Shevardnadze expressed his believe that the "president can

head a political party," suggesting that he will seek to run

as the leader of one. PG

[04] ...WELCOMES GROWING TIES WITH U.S.

that "relations between Georgia and the U.S. are gradually

assuming the nature of a strategic partnership," ITAR-TASS

reported. But he commented that "this cooperation is not

aimed against anyone." He again expressed interest in NATO's

participation in finding a solution to the Abkhaz problem. In

related developments, Tbilisi announced that the parliament

will consider sending 20 Georgian servicemen to Kosova, ITAR-

TASS reported. A representative of the Georgian military will

go to Italy in August for NATO training, according to

Caucasus Press. PG

[05] GEORGIA RAISES THRESHOLD FOR PARLIAMENTARY REPRESENTATION

voting threshold for representation in parliament from 5

percent to 7 percent, Caucasus Press reported. The vote,

which will make it more difficult for some smaller parties to

gain representation in the parliament, results in the first

amendment to the country's 1995 constitution. But President

Shevardnadze dismissed it as having little importance for him

and his political future. PG

[06] CENTRAL ASIANS TO FORM SECURITIES MARKET

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan will form a securities

market, the Kazakhstan government announced to Interfax-

Kazakhstan on 20 July. PG

[07] KAZAKHSTAN STEPS UP PRESSURE OVER BAIKONUR

Moldabekov, the head of Kazakhstan's Space Agency, told

Reuters on 20 July that his government will seek a percentage

of profits from all future Russian launches from Baikonur as

well as a say in future launch schedules. But he acknowledged

that "Kazakhstan does not have the legal right" to limit the

number of launches at the site, Interfax-Kazakhstan reported

the same day. PG

[08] KYRGYZSTAN, RUSSIA SIGN BORDER CONTROL ACCORD

terms of a 17 July agreement, Kyrgyzstan will assume

responsibility for parts of its border that have been under

the control of Russian border guards, Interfax reported on 19

July. PG

[09] TAJJIK MUSLIM LEADER RE-ELECTED

re-elected to the chairmanship of the Tajik Muslim Religious

Board for another five years, Interfax reported on 19 July.

PG

[10] UZBEKISTAN PRESIDENT PROPOSES AFGHAN PEACE PLAN

a meeting of the "Six plus Two" group in Tashkent on 19 July,

President Islam Karimov called for a cease-fire, an exchange

of prisoners, and the end of all blockades of humanitarian

assistance in Afghanistan, Interfax reported. Karimov said

that "our most coveted and greatest desire is to see a

peaceful, stable, and secure Afghanistan." PG

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] REHN CALLS FOR 'NEW MECHANISM' AGAINST RIGHTS VIOLATORS

19 July the international community must "create a mechanism

with which we can deal with the actions of this kind of a

terror state"--by which she meant Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic's Serbia--without resorting to a bombing campaign.

"Every missile cost around $1 million and, in a few years, we

will pay for the reconstruction. And so much sorrow and

misery," Reuters reported. Rehn also called upon NATO not to

reduce its forces in the Balkans until the remaining indicted

war criminals have been captured. Rehn is a former Finnish

defense minister and has served the UN in the Balkans for the

past four years. PM

[12] U.S. REJECTS AMNESTY FOR MILOSEVIC

spokesman James Rubin said in Washington on 19 July that

"Milosevic's future is only in one place, and that is The

Hague. We oppose any suggestion of granting sanctuary or

amnesty to indicted war criminals, and we encourage any state

that obtains custody over Milosevic to deliver him directly

to The Hague." Serbian opposition politician Vuk Draskovic

recently suggested that Milosevic receive amnesty in return

for leaving office (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 1999). PM

[13] CLINTON TO ATTEND BALKAN SUMMIT

will attend the international summit on Balkan reconstruction

in Sarajevo on 30 July, the White House said in a statement

on 19 July. The statement noted that "the leaders will

discuss ways to strengthen peace and stability, deepen

democracy and civil society, and promote economic reforms

throughout southeast Europe." On 28 July, international

financial experts will meet in Brussels to plan an aid

package for the region. PM

[14] EU REACHES 'MESSY COMPROMISE' ON BALKAN RECONSTRUCTION

foreign ministers the previous day reached a "messy

compromise" dividing EU offices for Balkan reconstruction

between Thessaloniki and Prishtina. An unnamed "senior

European Commission official said the member states were

behaving in a 'disgraceful' way, and United States diplomats

[were] taken aback by the naked self-interest of the

infighting," the daily continued. The ministers also agreed

to lift the oil embargo on Montenegro and Kosova "soon." PM

[15] DJINDJIC WANTS 'CONCRETE PLAN' FOR EU ADMISSION

Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic told German Chancellor

Gerhard Schroeder in Bonn on 19 July that the EU should offer

Serbia a "concrete plan" for obtaining EU membership.

Djindjic stressed that Serbs will make "great efforts" to

join European structures once Milosevic is out of power, the

"Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. Djindjic added he

considers that "Milosevic is already history." The opposition

leader pointed out, however, that removing Milosevic from

office "will not be easy." Schroeder replied that he "does

not exclude" EU membership for Belgrade once Milosevic is

gone, Deutsche Welle reported. PM

[16] BELGRADE CAMPAIGN AGAINST 'CRONYISM'?

Minister Dragoljub Karic said that many unspecified company

managers with "membership in certain political parties and

with political connections" all too often "channel

[corporate] money into private pockets," Reuters reported on

19 July. Observers suggested that his reference was to a

large number of businessmen close to the respective political

parties of Milosevic and his wife. Former top banker

Dragoslav Avramovic told an opposition news conference that

Karic could not "give such a statement without a certain

security, certain guarantees for himself, according to the

way things work here." PM

[17] BELGRADE SAYS UN VIOLATES ITS SOVEREIGNTY

Jovanovic, who is Yugoslavia's chief envoy to the UN, said in

a letter in New York on 19 July that Secretary-General Kofi

Annan's 12 July report on Kosova was "biased and tendentious"

(see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 20 July 1999). Jovanovic added

that Annan showed "scant respect" for Belgrade's sovereignty

in the province. Elsewhere, the UN's Advisory Committee on

Administrative and Budgetary Questions approved an initial

$200 million to finance the UN's operation in Kosova. PM

[18] UN TRIES TO GET RUGOVA'S PARTY ON TRANSITIONAL COUNCIL

July in Prishtina, unnamed officials of the UN and the

Democratic League of Kosova (LDK) discussed the possible

participation of moderate leader Ibrahim Rugova in the UN-

sponsored transitional council for the province (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 19 July 1999). The council's next session is

scheduled for 26 July. Rugova's foreign relations adviser,

Edita Tahiri, told AFP in Prishtina that the LDK declined to

attend the first council meeting on 16 July because the

Christian Democratic, Liberal, and Social Democratic Parties

were not invited. These small parties were represented in the

last shadow-state parliament. The UN instead opted to invite

all Kosovar representatives who were at the Rambouillet

conference, as well as representatives of the Kosovar Serbs

and Turks. A UN official told AFP that inclusion of the

smaller Albanian parties could lead to further demands for

representation by other small lobby groups from other ethnic

communities. FS

[19] WORLD BANK GIVES $40 MILLION TO ALBANIA

Minister Pandeli Majko and World Bank President James

Wolfensohn signed an agreement in Tirana on 19 July

providing for a $40 million loan, AP reported. The loan

will be used to upgrade infrastructure, promote regional

integration, and assist the development of small

enterprises. The credit has a 40-year maturity period, a

10-year grace period, and an annual interest rate of 0.75

percent. Wolfensohn told President Rexhep Meidani that "now

is the moment for you to secure...Albania's position in the

region and world. The World Bank will be your partner." He

urged the Albanian government to continue its privatization

program and step up the fight against corruption. Since

1991, Albania has received loans totaling $482 million from

the World Bank in support of 33 projects. FS

[20] GREECE EXPELS MORE ALBANIANS

deport Albanian immigrants on 19 July, dpa reported (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 9 July 1999). Within 24 hours, Greek

police shipped 1,000 immigrants to the border crossing of

Kakavia. Many of them complained that Greek police had torn

up their bank documents, which made it impossible for them to

retrieve their savings deposited in Greek banks. Others

claimed that they have the necessary papers to stay in

Greece. One immigrant told Albanian Radio that "the police

did not bother to look at my documents, they just tore them

up and put me forcibly on a bus for the border." Albanian

officials estimate that Greek authorities deported more than

3,000 emigrants to Albania the previous week. FS

[21] CROATIA REBUFFS ARBOUR

Separovic told Louise Arbour, who is the Hague-based war

crimes tribunal's special prosecutor, in Zagreb on 19 July

that the Croatian authorities will not extradite Mladen

"Tuta" Naletilic and Vinko "Stela" Martinovic until court

cases against them in Croatia have been completed. She had

demanded that the two appear before the tribunal to face

charges of war crimes that they allegedly committed in Bosnia

during the 1992-1995 war. Separovic also refused to give

Arbour all the documents the latter had requested regarding

alleged atrocities committed against Serbs in Croatia between

1991 and 1995. Separovic commented that "we have to take care

of our national interests." He stressed, however, that "no

country" has given the court as many documents as Croatia

has. PM

[22] ROMANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DEFENDS CONVICTED GENERALS

Babiuc on 19 July said his ministry will appeal not only the

decision of the Supreme Court obliging his ministry to pay

damages to the victims of the 1989 uprising in Timisoara but

also the sentencing of Generals Victor Stanculescu and Mihai

Chitac (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"16 July 1999). Babiuc said the

sentence was "not just a legal mistake" but "a blunder, with

strong political bias" aimed at discrediting the army as a

whole. He emphasized that the army in 1989 "sided with the

revolution" and that Stanculescu "played a key role in that

decision." Chief of Staff General Constantin Degeratu said

the sentence was "bizarre, unfounded, and illegal" and

undermined the principle of "fulfillment of orders" by the

military. MS

[23] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT DENIES ALLEGATIONS OF ESPIONAGE

Senator Corneliu Vadim Tudor's recent allegations that Emil

Constantinescu spied for the U.S. were "just another

aberration circulated by Tudor and the team of retired

Securitate people that surrounds him." Popescu called on the

Prosecutor-General's Office to indict the senator. During an

interview with a private television station on 15 July, Tudor

played a videotape in which a former officer of the communist

secret police made the allegation. Interviewed by the daily

"Cotidianul" on 19 July, the officer repeated the allegations

but added that he cannot produce proof. His colleagues who

were in charge of shadowing Constantinescu under the former

regime are all dead, he added. MS

[24] TRANSDNIESTER LEADER ON KYIV SUMMIT

television on returning from the Kyiv summit (see "RFE/RL

Newsline, 19 July 1999), separatist leader Igor Smirnov said

the negotiations were "constructive" and that the documents

submitted by his delegation were "highly appreciated" by

Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and "particularly by

[Russian Prime Minister] Sergei Stepashin." Smirnov said that

according to Stepashin, the agreed declaration on a single

Moldovan-Transdniestrian state "may successfully serve as a

model for solving relations between the Russian Federation

and Chechnya," RFE RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Smirnov

also said that Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi "did not

share Stepashin's optimism," pointing out that the Moldovan

Constitution defines the country as a "unitary state." MS

[25] RUSSIA REBUFFS BULGARIA ON AIR CORRIDORS FOR KFOR TROOPS

set by Bulgaria on air corridors for the transportation to

Kosova of Russian KFOR peacekeepers. An embassy spokesman

said on 19 July that Bulgaria insists that Russia present a

list of the exact number of troops, their weapons, and

ammunition five days prior to the transit. He argued that it

is "impossible to satisfy these demands," ITAR-TASS reported.

The spokesman also said that the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry

has informed the embassy that the transit requires

parliamentary approval and that the legislature cannot

discuss the request now because of the parliamentary recess.

MS

[26] BULGARIA BANS USE OF POLICE FORCE AGAINST JOURNALISTS

prohibiting police from using force against journalists, AP

reported, citing BTA. The ban comes after several incidents

involving such force. Most recently, police in Varna

confiscated and exposed the films of a local newspaper

photographer who was taking pictures of municipal workers

pulling down illegally constructed buildings. Last week,

military police in Sofia handcuffed a newspaper photographer

taking pictures of guests arriving at a reception at the

French embassy. Earlier, police on the Bulgarian-Turkish

border attacked a radio reporter covering the transit of

Turkish peacekeepers to Kosova. MS

[C] END NOTE

[27] HAS HUNGARY OVERSTATED ITS VOJVODINA CASE?

There are indications that Budapest's repeated

insistence on the need for the autonomy of neighboring

Vojvodina is having diminished returns. Hungary's new allies

in NATO and its prospective future EU partners have distanced

themselves from the Hungarian position, according to which

the Vojvodina Magyars must be safeguarded against the

idiosyncrasies of Slobodan Milosevic's regime in Belgrade.

There are three reasons for this development.

First, Hungarian leaders have been using vague

terminology, such as "personal autonomy," borrowed from the

program of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania.

That term, which has been widely employed but seldom

clarified, means little more than ensuring that Vojvodina

ethnic Hungarians living in settlements where there is no

Magyar majority have the right to participate in electing

provincial representative bodies. The lack of understanding

of this term is self-evident: The Hungarian language is not

exactly an international communications tool, nor are leaders

of Hungary's new allies known for browsing through Hungarian

publications over their morning porridge or croissants.

Second, Budapest's behavior during the Kosova conflict

failed to meet the expectations of its new allies. While that

behavior was not as unsatisfactory as that of the Czech

government--prominent members of which criticized the

alliance as air strikes took place against Yugoslavia --the

Hungarian cabinet obviously considered it had done its duty

by allowing the alliance to use the Taszar air base for anti-

Yugoslav sorties. Moreover, according to a report in the

daily "Vilaggazdasag" on 25 June, Prime Minister Viktor Orban

had vetoed in April a planned NATO ground operation from

Hungary.

Budapest repeatedly emphasized that Yugoslavia's likely

reprisals against the 350,000-strong Magyar minority in the

province prevented it from contributing troops to a possible

ground force. Its worries about such reprisals are likely to

have been the reason for Orban's vetoing an invasion from

Hungary. But after the conflict ended and Hungary escalated

its own Vojvodina autonomy campaign, her allies were little

inclined to follow a course that could lead to a new

conflict, one for which neither domestic nor international

public opinion were prepared.

Not that the Hungarian argument lacks in persuasiveness.

Orban, Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi, and other Hungarian

officials have all pointed out that since the region's

autonomy was abolished by Milosevic in 1989, Vojvodina has

lost much of its multi-ethnic character. The break up of

Tito's Yugoslavia saw Serbs from Croatia and Bosnia settled

in Vojvodina, and the region's ethnic balance was further

altered by the recent conflict in Kosova. In an address to a

NATO workshop in Budapest on 21 June, Orban said that no

fewer than 250,000 Serbs fled from Kosova to Vojvodina once

Milosevic's defeat became clear. Even more worrisome, as

Hungarian President Arpad Goncz indicated during a visit to

Norway in late June, members of Serbian paramilitary

organizations from Kosova had appeared in Vojvodina,

increasing the prospect of ethnic-cleansing in the province.

The third reason for NATO's reluctance to support the

Hungarian position stems from the reaction of Hungary's

neighbors, other than Yugoslavia, which fear that the next

step in applying the autonomy model might be "imported" to

their territory. When NATO Supreme Commander Europe, General

Wesley Clark spoke in Budapest last month about the

obliteration of the Trianon legacy (by which he meant non-

interference in so-called "internal affairs" when human

rights are at stake), Romania's politicians were united in

denouncing the declaration and calling for "clarification."

It was not sufficient for NATO headquarters in Brussels to

send a verbatim report of Clark's statement to Bucharest,

which the media printed in full. Clark himself had to

reassure his hosts, during a brief visit of Bucharest on 15

July, that he had not suggested that borders would in any way

be questioned after Kosova. NATO was pursuing regional

stability, he stressed, and "stability means no change of

borders."

When William Cohen visited Budapest on 12 July, the U.S.

defense secretary's hosts were confronted with his obvious

reluctance to back ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina. "Magyar

Hirlap" reported that when Orban asked for such support,

Cohen "politely" changed the subject. The look on his face,

according to an AP report, was "not again!" A senior US

official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AP that

the U.S. would certainly not meet Orban's request that the

issue be included on the Western agenda for talks on the

future of the Balkans. "The last thing we need," he said, "is

another push for autonomy."

Likewise, a Foreign Ministry official from one of the EU

member states told "Nepszabadsag" that the issue of autonomy

for Vojvodina's Hungarians will be at the bottom of the list

of priorities in talks on the region's stability. The

official rejected the Kosova-Vojvodina link, noting that the

two provinces are not comparable, since one's population is

90 percent Albanian and the other's 17 percent Hungarian.

When Orban was asked whether his demand that NATO "guarantee"

autonomy meant using military force, he replied "How else?"

He would have been well advised to come up with a

different answer. Unless, of course, he is ready to settle

for an air base in the U.S, from which Hungary would launch

air strikes to defend its Vojvodina brethren.

20-07-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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