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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 126, 99-06-29

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 126, 29 June 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] WAS NAGORNO-KARABAKH PRESIDENT BUGGED?
  • [02] AZERBAIJAN POPULAR FRONT PROTESTS INSULTS TO JOURNALISTS
  • [03] FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DETAINED IN AZERBAIJAN...
  • [04] ...AND GEORGIA
  • [05] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SEES GREATER EU ROLE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
  • [06] GEORGIA TO MONITOR TURKISH SHIPPING
  • [07] U.S., NATO CONDUCT TRAINING COURSES IN KAZAKHSTAN, UZBEKISTAN
  • [08] TAJIK PRESIDENT APPROVES CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
  • [09] UZBEK COURT HANDS DOWN DEATH SENTENCES FOR BOMBINGS

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO HOLD RALLY
  • [11] UCK ABIDES BY DEMILITARIZATION PLAN
  • [12] CALL FOR PROTECTION OF SERBS IN KOSOVA
  • [13] COOK APPEALS TO SERBS
  • [14] ALBRIGHT OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA
  • [15] CURFEW INTRODUCED IN TWO MORE TOWNS
  • [16] AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL WARNS AGAINST FORCED RETURN OF REFUGEES TO KOSOVA
  • [17] UCK TORTURE CHAMBER FOUND?
  • [18] CALL FOR TRUTH COMMISSION
  • [19] YUGOSLAVIA PROTESTS HAVEL'S KOSOVA VISIT
  • [20] YUGOSLAV ARMY DISMANTLES CHECKPOINTS
  • [21] CROATIAN FARMERS' PROTEST CONTINUES
  • [22] STRIKERS STOP CIVILIAN AIR TRAFFIC TO TIRANA
  • [23] ROMANIAN RULING PARTY QUERIES NATO COMMANDER'S STATEMENT
  • [24] ROMANIAN PREMIER'S CANDIDACY FOR PARTY CHAIRMANSHIP QUESTIONED
  • [25] ROMANIAN MINORITY LEADERS WORRIED ABOUT SPREAD OF XENOPHOBIA, ANTI- SEMITISM
  • [26] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT CONTINUES DRIVE TO CHANGE PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM
  • [27] WORLD BANK DISBURSES MOLDOVA LOANS
  • [28] FIRST KFOR TROOPS TRANSIT BULGARIA

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [29] ISOLATING SERBIA: AN EFFECTIVE APPROACH?

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] WAS NAGORNO-KARABAKH PRESIDENT BUGGED?

    A senior official within the administration of Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, told RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent at the weekend that Ghukasian informed cabinet members on 24 June, before signing a decree dismissing Prime Minister Zhirayr Poghosian, that a surveillance device had been discovered in his office. It is unclear, however, whether that discovery was the primary reason for the firing of Poghosian, who has refused to comment on Ghukasian's allegations. According to unconfirmed reports from Stepanakert, a local electronics engineer who planted the bug is being held in custody in Yerevan. The Armenian National Security Ministry has denied any involvement in the incident. LF

    [02] AZERBAIJAN POPULAR FRONT PROTESTS INSULTS TO JOURNALISTS

    The opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front has released a statement condemning abusive and insulting remarks addressed to journalists by parliamentary deputy Jalal Aliev during a 25 June debate on the new draft law on the media, Turan reported on 28 June. Aliev, whose younger brother Heidar is Azerbaijan's president, reportedly argued that the new law should put an end to "immorality and callousness" in the press. He also accused unnamed media outlets of "betrayal" and seeking to undermine Azerbaijan's statehood. He referred to women journalists working for independent newspapers as "prostitutes" and their male colleagues as "rogues," RFE/RL's Baku bureau reported. Also on 25 June, Reporters Sans Frontieres wrote to Azerbaijani Interior Minister Ramil Usubov to protest the beating by two policemen in Baku on 19 June of Elman Maliev, a journalist with the independent newspaper "Hurriyet." LF

    [03] FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DETAINED IN AZERBAIJAN...

    Ashraf Mehtiev, chairman of the Geyrat Party and of the Association of Victims of Political Repression, was forcibly taken to the Baku City Prosecutor's office on 28 June but later released, Turan reported. Criminal proceedings have been brought against Mehtiev, who according to official results polled less than 1 percent of the vote in the October 1998 presidential elections, for insulting the honor and dignity of President Aliev in his election campaign speeches. LF

    [04] ...AND GEORGIA

    In Tbilisi, Kartlos Gharibashvili, chairman of the Independent Lawyers' Association, said on 28 June that he will file charges for unlawful arrest against local police officials who arrested him on 25 June for hooliganism in connection with an incident in mid-April when his car collided with a bus, Caucasus Press reported. Gharibashvili was held in detention for 50 hours, then brought before a judge who dismissed the case after a 15-hour hearing. Gharibashvili attributed his arrest to his willingness to defend Temur Papuashvili, who is accused of planning a coup against the Georgian leadership. Gharibashvili ran for president in 1995 but polled only 0.4 percent of the vote. LF

    [05] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SEES GREATER EU ROLE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

    In his regular Monday radio broadcast on 28 June, Eduard Shevardnadze said the EU could play a key role in helping to resolve conflicts in the South Caucasus and in providing funds for the reconstruction of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Interfax and ITAR-TASS reported. He added that the EU will shortly receive 13 million Euros ($12 million)from the EU for agricultural development and another 7 million Euros for the construction of a fiber- optics communication line through the South Caucasus. LF

    [06] GEORGIA TO MONITOR TURKISH SHIPPING

    Shevardnadze also said on 28 June that Tbilisi has reached agreement with the Turkish government that all Turkish ships bound for the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia must first undergo customs clearance in the Georgian port of Poti, Caucasus Press reported. Only ships carrying humanitarian aid will be permitted to proceed to Abkhaz ports, Shevardnadze said. Georgian coastguards intercepted a Turkish vessel on 26 June for illegally entering Georgian territorial waters. LF

    [07] U.S., NATO CONDUCT TRAINING COURSES IN KAZAKHSTAN, UZBEKISTAN

    NATO and the Uzbek Defense Ministry began joint training courses on 28 June for civilian agencies engaged in coping with emergency situations, Interfax reported. The following day, a U.S.-Kazakh seminar on defense planning begins in Astana. Participants will compare the two countries' approaches to identifying possible threats and risks in creating a national security strategy, Interfax reported, quoting a Kazakh Defense Ministry official. They will also draft proposals for Kazakhstan's defense budget. LF

    [08] TAJIK PRESIDENT APPROVES CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

    Imomali Rakhmonov gave "overall approval" on 28 June to amendments to the Tajik Constitution demanded by the United Tajik Opposition within the framework of the 1997 peace agreement, ITAR-TASS reported. Those amendments will be considered at an emergency parliamentary session on 30 June. No details of the proposals were given. The opposition had earlier demanded the removal from the constitution of an article pledging construction of a secular Tajik state, and the introduction of a bicameral parliament, according to "Vremya-MN" on 22 April. Rakhmonov had rejected the latter proposal on the grounds that it would cost the state budget $25 million. LF

    [09] UZBEK COURT HANDS DOWN DEATH SENTENCES FOR BOMBINGS

    Uzbekistan's Supreme Court sentenced six men to death on 28 June for their role in the 16 February bombings in Tashkent that killed 16 people. Eight more defendants received prison sentences of 20 years, while another eight were sentenced to terms ranging from 10 to 18 years. All those accused pleaded wholly or partially guilty to the charges of terrorism, murder, and attempting to kill President Islam Karimov. In addition to admitting responsibility for the February bombings, some of those accused also admitted to murders committed earlier in the cities of Andizhan and Namangan, according to ITAR-TASS. AFP quoted human rights activists as saying that since the trial opened on 2 June, hundreds of people who sympathized with the defendants have been arrested for handing out leaflets in Tashkent. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO HOLD RALLY

    Vladan Batic, who is a leading official of the Alliance for Change coalition of opposition groups, said in Belgrade on 28 June that the opposition will stage a rally in Cacak the following afternoon. Participants in the rally will demand the immediate resignation of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and "early, free, and fair elections," Batic added. He stressed that if Milosevic does not call early elections under OSCE supervision, the alliance will do so itself and form a parallel government, "Danas" reported. Dragan Milovanovic, who heads Serbia's only independent labor union, said that members of his union will join the protest in Cacak. He added that workers will "no longer work for peanuts, nor will they help rebuild the country for free," Reuters reported. The alliance expects at least 10,000 people to attend the rally, "The Daily Telegraph" reported. PM

    [11] UCK ABIDES BY DEMILITARIZATION PLAN

    A KFOR spokesman told Reuters in Prishtina on 29 June that Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) forces have met the deadline, which was midnight the previous day, for establishing sites where they will turn in their weapons and for "gathering" in designated "assembly areas." Outside these areas, UCK soldiers are not allowed to wear uniforms or carry arms under the demilitarization plan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 June 1999). The fighters may keep only pistols and non-automatic hunting rifles in remote rural areas. The KFOR spokesman added that "we have every reason to believe that the UCK is in compliance" with the plan. He had no details on how many weapons the UCK has turned in, nor did he give an exact number of storage sites and assembly areas. He did say, however, that there are approximately 10 storage sites and five assembly areas in the British-patrolled sector alone. FS

    [12] CALL FOR PROTECTION OF SERBS IN KOSOVA

    Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Pavle, Archbishop Artemije, and Kosova Serbian leader Momcilo Trajkovic recently sent an open letter to UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan and several Western leaders urging that KFOR better protect Serbs in Kosova, AP reported on 28 June. The letter noted: "It is hard to understand how it is possible that in spite of the presence of at least 20,000 members of KFOR, the worst crimes ever are taking place [against local Serbs]." The three Serbian leaders added that "it is necessary that [ethnic] Albanian leaders understand that those who are responsible for the crimes against Serbs will be treated in the same manner as those who are responsible for crimes" against Kosovars. The three stressed that the "Serbian community is ready to cooperate [with the international community]...only if the basic security is secured." If it is not, the letter continued, the Serbs will have to provide their own security. PM

    [13] COOK APPEALS TO SERBS

    British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said in a statement to the Serbian media on 28 June that Milosevic is chiefly responsible for Serbia's problems and "is nearing the end of the road." Milosevic has a "record of sustained, unrelenting failure. The human cost of this appalling decade [of his rule] can scarcely be calculated." Cook added that "the Yugoslav economy is in ruins, Milosevic's friends and family have stolen or appropriated millions of dollars for their own selfish purposes." The Serbs should now replace Milosevic and "rejoin the European high road to peace and prosperity." PM

    [14] ALBRIGHT OPTIMISTIC ON KOSOVA

    U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told a meeting of the Council of Foreign Relations in New York on 28 June that "by meeting massive ethnic cleansing in the Balkans with a red light, we make it less likely that NATO will be called upon to use force in the future.... Until now, independence has seemed the only alternative to repression. But in the future, Kosovars will have something they have never had, which is genuine self- government." She added: "some [people] hope, and others fear, that [Kosova] will be a precedent for similar interventions [by NATO] around the globe. I would caution against any such sweeping conclusions." PM

    [15] CURFEW INTRODUCED IN TWO MORE TOWNS

    U.S. KFOR peacekeepers introduced a curfew in Gjilan and Vitina beginning 28 June in order to reduce incidents of the looting and burning of properties owned by Serbs and Roma. Italian KFOR troops had introduced such restrictions in Prizren the previous day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 1999). PM

    [16] AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL WARNS AGAINST FORCED RETURN OF REFUGEES TO KOSOVA

    Amnesty International issued a statement on 29 June in New York saying that a return to Kosova is not a solution for all refugees currently in camps in Macedonia and Albania. The human rights organization urged international aid organizations to pay special attention to the needs of elderly people, women, children, disabled people, and victims of torture. The statement stressed that the refugees need information that will "allow them to make an informed choice about return and the rights to which they are entitled." It suggested that "the international community should continue to provide protection to those refugees unable to return [and supply them with] identity documents...to benefit from further protection programs." The UNHCR resettled about 380 refugees from Macedonia on 28 June and 370 the following day. Most of them were from Prishtina and Ferizaj. FS

    [17] UCK TORTURE CHAMBER FOUND?

    German KFOR peacekeepers in Prizren recently found what they suspect is a torture chamber used by the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), the "Berliner Zeitung" reported on 28 June. Three Roma, who told peacekeepers that the UCK tortured them, took KFOR troops to the site. In New York, Human Rights Watch said in a statement on 26 June that there is evidence that UCK members have been involved in the rapes and murders of an unspecified number of Serbs and Roma. The report added that there is not enough evidence to suggest that the UCK leadership "orchestrated" the attacks, but it called on UCK commanders to punish individual wrongdoers. PM

    [18] CALL FOR TRUTH COMMISSION

    Wolfgang Ischinger, who is a Balkan expert and a state secretary at the German Foreign Ministry, said that Kosova needs a Truth and Reconciliation Commission on the South African model, the "Berliner Zeitung" reported on 28 June. He stressed that the Serbs in particular must confront their recent past. PM

    [19] YUGOSLAVIA PROTESTS HAVEL'S KOSOVA VISIT

    The state-run news agency Tanjug on 28 June quoted unnamed Yugoslav Foreign Ministry officials as saying that Czech President Vaclav Havel's visit to Kosova on 27 June was "unacceptable." The officials said the visit had "circumvented usual diplomatic procedure" because it was not announced in advance. They added that it constituted a "gross interference in Yugoslav internal affairs." Havel was the first head of state to visit Kosova since the deployment of KFOR. FS

    [20] YUGOSLAV ARMY DISMANTLES CHECKPOINTS

    The Yugoslav army on 28 June dismantled checkpoints that it had set up several weeks ago along Montenegro's borders with Bosnia and Albania, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service from Podgorica. The move follows the federal parliament's recent decision to end the "state of war" that was in effect during NATO's bombing campaign. It is unclear why the soldiers did not dismantle checkpoints on the border with Croatia. Many Serbs opposed to the government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic nonetheless believe that the legislature will soon pass laws to maintain restrictions on both the media and the political opposition that the authorities imposed under the state of war. PM

    [21] CROATIAN FARMERS' PROTEST CONTINUES

    Farmers continued to block many important roads in various parts of Croatia on 29 June (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 1999). A farmers' union spokesman told RFE/RL that road transportation in some parts of Croatia could soon come to a complete standstill. A meeting between union leaders and Prime Minister Zlatko Matesa on 28 June ended inconclusively. Matesa told the state-run news agency Hina that the talks will continue. PM

    [22] STRIKERS STOP CIVILIAN AIR TRAFFIC TO TIRANA

    Tirana's airport ground staff went on strike on 28 June, blocking all civilian air traffic into Albania. The strikers are demanding a 50 percent wage hike. Aircraft carrying humanitarian and emergency medical aid, as well as those transporting Prime Minister Pandeli Majko, will be allowed to land at the airport, assistant air traffic controller Genc Xhunga told Reuters. FS

    [23] ROMANIAN RULING PARTY QUERIES NATO COMMANDER'S STATEMENT

    First Deputy Chairman of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) Gabriel Tepelea said on 28 June that the PNTCD wants the U.S. to offer an "official explanation" for the statement attributed to NATO Supreme Commander Europe General Wesley Clark (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 June 1999). In that statement, Clark suggested that the 1920 Versailles Treaty agreement is "outdated." Tepelea said he finds it "hard to believe" the general made such a statement in Budapest, "the more so as U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, during her recent visit to Romania, said Romania's sovereignty and integrity could not be questioned," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

    [24] ROMANIAN PREMIER'S CANDIDACY FOR PARTY CHAIRMANSHIP QUESTIONED

    Responding to Premier Radu Vasile's recent announcement that he may run for the chairmanship of the PNTCD at the next party congress, scheduled for January 2000 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1999), PNTCD chairman Ion Diaconescu noted that the congress will be held shortly before the start of the electoral campaign, adding that therefore "it would be a grave situation if the party were [subject to tensions] and torn by internal conflict at that time, " RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

    [25] ROMANIAN MINORITY LEADERS WORRIED ABOUT SPREAD OF XENOPHOBIA, ANTI- SEMITISM

    In an interview with RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau on 28 June, Minority Affairs Minister Peter Eckstein-Kovacs said the recent warning by the National Minorities Council against xenophobia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1996) was prompted by nationwide dailies' biased reporting on the Romany and Hungarian ethnic minorities and anti-Semitism displayed by such weeklies as "Romania mare" and "Atac la persoana." Dorel Dorian, who represents the Jewish minority in the parliament, said that "Atac la persoana" now has local editions in several provincial towns. He also noted that the dailies "Cotidianul," "Natiunea," and "Romania libera" as welll as the private television stations Antena 1 and Tele 7 abc often adopt an anti-Semitic stance. Dorian said there may be a connection between such reporting and the desecration of Jewish cemeteries and the plundering of synagogues. Both politicians called on the government to prosecute those who are involved in racial incitement. MS

    [26] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT CONTINUES DRIVE TO CHANGE PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM

    Addressing the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on 25 June, President Petru Lucinschi said his drive to change the existing system to a presidential one is prompted by the "inefficiency" of the parliamentary system. Noting that in the last eight years Moldova has had eight cabinets, he said that each change has meant a "destructive confrontation" between the government and the parliament, Infotag reported. On 28 June, Lucinschi told journalists in Chisinau that he will soon set up a commission on amending the constitution, which he expects to come up with proposals within a month. Thereafter, he said, he will submit to the Constitutional Court a draft amendment to the basic document to issue an opinion on that proposed change. Lucinschi said that either the parliament approves the amendment by the necessary two- thirds majority or he will call a referendum on changing the constitution. MS

    [27] WORLD BANK DISBURSES MOLDOVA LOANS

    The World Bank's board of directors has approved the disbursement of two tranches of a loan to Moldova aimed at promoting the privatization of the country's agricultural, industrial, and energy sectors, Flux reported on 26 June. The two tranches total $40 million. The board also approved the disbursement of a $11.1 million loan intended for social protection. In other news, the National Agency for Energy announced on 25 June that the price of gas will increase by 45.1 percent, electricity by 19 percent, and heating by 23.3 percent. The agency said that the hike, which goes into effect as of 1 July, was necessitated by the devaluation of leu by almost one-third since prices were adjusted in December 1998. MS

    [28] FIRST KFOR TROOPS TRANSIT BULGARIA

    Some 200 Polish KFOR peacekeepers have arrived in Bulgaria on their way to Kosova, AP and Reuters reported on 28 June. They crossed the border at Russe, arriving by train from Romania. This was the first of several trains expected to transport the 900-strong Polish contingent, which will join the U.S. troops in southern Kosova. MS

    [C] END NOTE

    [29] ISOLATING SERBIA: AN EFFECTIVE APPROACH?

    By Christopher Walker

    In remarks directed to the Serbian people earlier this month, U.S. President Bill Clinton announced that, "as long as [Slobodan Milosevic] remains in power...we will provide no support for the reconstruction of Serbia."

    The United States and key European allies reiterated this position earlier this month in Cologne, Germany, during the summit of the world's seven major economic powers and Russia. At the same time, the EU announced its intention to provide $1.5 billion over the next three years for the reconstruction of Kosova. While the prevailing sentiment among the Western powers is to isolate Belgrade, the Russians are making an effort to have Serbia included in any post- conflict reconstruction efforts.

    Although the thought of providing support of any kind to Milosevic--an indicted war criminal--is anathema to the U.S. and most EU members, a decision to effectively quarantine Serbia from all but the most basic of humanitarian assistance will certainly delay the speed with which the entire Balkan region can be reconstructed.

    In many ways, progress in the Balkans has been in a holding pattern since the disintegration of Yugoslavia as Milosevic has systematically attacked, destroyed, and then cast off those territorial parcels of the former Yugoslavia inhabited by ethnic Serbian minorities outside Serbia proper.

    During this time the international community has been frustrated in its effort to come up with a coherent and resolute approach to the region's problems. First and foremost, Milosevic has proven a thorn in the side of the international community. A series of economic sanctions and periods of diplomatic isolation have characterized the West's policy toward Belgrade since the beginning of this decade. Although tough economic sanctions on Yugoslavia have been in place in one form or another since 1992, the diplomatic isolation of Milosevic has not been seamless.

    In fact, U.S. and European policy-makers have often sent mixed messages to the world audience regarding the Serbian leader. On the one hand, they have claimed that Milosevic is the root of the problem. On the other, these same Western countries have at crucial moments over the past years embraced him-- among other things to negotiate peace agreements in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia--thus conferring credibility on the very person they claim is most responsible for destabilizing the Balkans. In Kosova, Milosevic remained crucial to the cessation of hostilities, though much of the diplomatic contact with him was made through Russia once the NATO campaign began.

    While the West's isolation policy has manifold drawbacks, its periodic cooperation with Milosevic has caused its own "collateral damage." Within Serbia, members of the opposition and others fighting for the establishment of civil society communicated their strong displeasure with the West's partnership with Milosevic at Dayton, arguing it undercut their efforts to bring about democratic habits at home. In a similar regard, reform-minded Croats have expressed frustrations regarding President Franjo Tudjman--a leader with weak democratic credentials--whose inclusion in the Dayton accords and largely benign treatment from the West has handicapped the democratic reform movement in Croatia.

    Outside Serbia, a policy of isolation adversely affects neighboring countries, which bear the brunt of Serbia's instability. While these countries may have little affection for Milosevic, they recognize that the prolonged denial of assistance to Serbia will continue to negatively impact their own economic recovery. In recognition of this fact, at the outset the evolving Balkans' reconstruction plan is specifically directed toward "frontline" countries such as Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Romania, as well as other impacted adjacent territories, including Montenegro and, of course, Kosova.

    This dynamic is not limited to Serbia and the Balkans. The same holds true for Belarus, whose neighbors--including Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland--are greatly concerned about the effects of that country's diplomatic and economic isolation on regional stability. Not surprisingly, more than any other leader in the region, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka-- a kindred spirit of Milosevic--offered the Serbian leader the warmest public embrace and encouragement. The most vexing question for the international community is whether the more intense isolation of Milosevic proposed in the post-Kosova conflict period will enable democratic forces within Serbia to regroup and encourage average Serbs to get rid of their leader.

    Until now, the strategy of sanctions, embargoes and isolation has in many ways played into Milosevic's hands by allowing him to deflect blame for the sorry state of the Serbian economy on the West, as well as perpetuate the notion of Serbian victimization.

    By and large, each cycle of crisis during the past decade has enabled Milosevic to reconsolidate his power. Ultimately, a policy of isolation comes down to the Western leaders' calculation--and hope--that Milosevic has finally overplayed his hand, and that the grim results of the Kosova conflict and continued economic hardship in Serbia will lead to Milosevic's fall from power. If history is any guide, one should not expect his demise in the near term.

    The author is a New York-based analyst specializing in East European affairs (intrel@aol.com)

    29-06-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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