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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 244, 98-12-22Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 244, 22 December 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] DECISION ON AZERBAIJAN OIL EXPORT PIPELINE TO BE TAKEN IN MID- 1999David Woodward, newly appointed president of the Azerbaijan International Operating Company engaged in developing three offshore Azerbaijani oilfields, told journalists in Baku on 21 December that the consortium will decide in mid-1999 which route it considers optimum for the so-called Main Export Pipeline for Azerbaijan's Caspian oil, ITAR-TASS reported. That decision, which was to have been taken during the second half of 1998, was twice postponed. The Azerbaijani, Turkish, and U.S. governments are all lobbying for the Baku-Ceyhan route, rather than alternatives to either Supsa in Georgia or the Russian terminal at Novorossiisk. The AIOC has misgivings about the Baku-Ceyhan option, which is by far the most expensive of the three. The estimated cost of building that pipeline is between $2.5 billion and $3.7 billion. LF[02] AZERBAIJAN STRESSES CONCERN OVER RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN DEFENSE COOPERATIONThe Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has issued a statement characterizing the ongoing defense cooperation between Russia and Armenia as a "factor that hinders peace, stability, and security in the South Caucasus," Turan and ITAR-TASS reported on 21 December. The statement was pegged to the 15-16 December visit to Armenia of Russian air force commander Colonel-General Anatolii Kornukov, during which Russia sent five MiG fighter aircraft to the Russian military base in Armenia to participate in the joint defense of CIS air borders (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 December 1998). The statement also appealed to the Russian leadership to suspend implementation of the August 1997 Russian- Armenian Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Security. LF[03] FORMER ARMENIAN COMMUNIST BOSS PREDICTS VICTORY IN 1999 POLLKaren Demirchian addressed the founding congress of a local branch of his People's Party of Armenia in Yerevan on 20 December, RFE/RL's bureau in the Armenian capital reported. Demirchian criticized the present authorities for allegedly tampering with the results of the March 1998 presidential election, in which he lost in the runoff to Robert Kocharian. Demirchian also said that Armenia's industry and agriculture "are in tatters" and advocated a greater role for the state in regulating the economy. He characterized his party's program as social-democratic. Demirchian commands strong support among voters impoverished by the collapse of the former command economy, and he believes that with their support, his party will win the 1999 parliamentary elections, provided the poll is free and fair. LF[04] GEORGIA, ABKHAZIA SATISFIED WITH GENEVA TALKS...Levan Aleksidze, foreign policy adviser to Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, told Interfax on 21 December that the 17-18 December Geneva talks under UN auspices were unexpectedly fruitful. He said that although the two sides failed to resolve their "sharp differences," they expressed readiness for unspecified compromises, and resumed work on a protocol on the repatriation to Abkhazia of ethnic Georgian displaced persons. Aleksidze noted what he termed the positive role in those talks of Abkhaz Prime Minister Sergei Bagapsh, who also expressed satisfaction at their outcome, according to Caucasus Press, citing "Alia" of 21 December. LF[05] ...AGREE ON STABILIZATION MEAURESBagapsh met in Gali on 21 December with Georgian Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze and the interior and security ministers to discuss the recent upsurge of terrorist activity in Gali, Caucasus Press reported. The two sides agreed on the withdrawal of Georgian Interior Ministry forces from the village of Khurcha, a Georgian exclave on the Abkhaz side of the River Inguri, which forms the internal border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. Tamaz Nadareishvili, chairman of the so-called Abkhaz parliament in exile, condemned that decision as tantamount to ceding Georgian territory to the Abkhaz, Caucasus Press reported. In his weekly radio address on 21 December, President Shevardnadze again called for a compromise solution to the conflict and abjured the use of force, according to ITAR-TASS. In an oblique reference to the Georgian guerrilla formations operating in Gali, Shevardnadze described official Georgian support for terrorist organizations as "unacceptable." LF[06] NEW POLITICAL MOVEMENT FORMED IN KAZAKHSTANIndependent journalist Seydakhmet Kuttykadam announced the formation of a new political movement on 21 December, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. The Orleu-Progress movement will be composed of members of the country's intelligentsia, and branches will be opened in all regions. Kuttykadam said the movement's main task is to prepare for the next parliamentary elections. However, the movement's first priority will be to register. Another movement, "For Fair Elections" announced itself in early October but has still not been registered by the Ministry of Justice. BP[07] NAZARBAYEV COMPLAINS OF RUSSIAN OBSTRUCTION TO KAZAKH OIL EXPORTSKazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev met with Russian officials in Astana on 21 December, RFE/RL correspondents there reported. He called for better cooperation with the governors of Russian regions bordering Kazakhstan, and he criticized Russia for creating "obstacles" to Kazakhstan's exporting oil via Russian pipelines, saying that Kazakhstan "has to struggle" for every kilometer of the pipeline. He added that such obstruction is "not understandable for me as leader of a country that is known to be one of the main economic partners of Russia." Pipelines are certain to be on the agenda when Nazarbayev meets Russian Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov in Astana on 23 December. Meanwhile, Nazarbayev has scheduled meetings with officials from the U.S. Mobil Oil Company on 22 December. BP[08] KAZAKHSTAN, UKRAINE SIGN COOPERATION PROTOCOLKazakh Foreign Minister Kasymjomart Tokayev and his Ukrainian counterpart, Boris Tarasyuk, met on 21 December and signed a protocol on cooperation between the two countries' Foreign Ministries in 1999-2000, ITAR- TASS reported. The two also discussed CIS reforms, and Tarasyuk said "the reform process is continuing, but it is too early to speak of results." Tokayev said it is "necessary to improve the effectiveness of the Commonwealth," especially in adhering to accords signed by the heads of member states. BP[09] NIYAZOV RE-ELECTED CHAIRMAN OF PARTYTurkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov has been unanimously re-elected chairman of the country's Democratic Party, the only official party in Turkmenistan, Interfax reported on 21 December. Niyazov announced a second political party will be registered in the near future, RFE/RL correspondents in Ashgabat reported. BP[10] KYRGYZSTAN SETS UP CORRUPTION HOTLINEKyrgyz Prosecutor-General Asanbek Shirshenaliyev announced at a 21 December press conference that a hotline has been established so that residents of the country can file complaints about corrupt officials, Interfax reported. Shirshenaliyev said the project will work in conjunction with the Council Against Corruption and Economic Crime, set up by presidential decree earlier this month. The prosecutor pointed out that during the last five years, 383 government officials, mostly lower level ones, have been dismissed from their posts. The latest anti-corruption campaign began when the head of the presidential administration, Omar Sultanov, was sacked on 10 December. Government officials who asked to remain anonymous told RFE/RL correspondents in Bishkek that Economics Minister Taalaibek Koichumanov and Interior Minister Omurbek Kutuev may soon be dismissed. Koichumanov has tendered his resignation following the dismissal of two of his deputies on corruption charges. It is rumored that Prime Minister Kubanychbek Jumaliev will do the same. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[11] ARMED CLASH NEAR PODUJEVASerbian forces sealed off Podujeva on 21 December following the slaying of a policeman nearby (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 December 1998). The Kosovars' KIC news agency reported that gunfire could be heard in the vicinity of villages northeast of the town, which is located in the far north of Kosova, close to the border with Serbia proper. A spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) told AP that "the enemy was forced to withdraw and one of their tanks was destroyed," but there has been no independent confirmation of the spokesman's account. KIC noted that tensions have been on the rise in the Podujeva area recently because of a growing police presence. Local Serbs had asked the authorities for protection because of what the Serbs said was an influx of UCK fighters, AP reported. PM[12] SERBS BOO INTERIOR MINISTERSeveral hundred angry Serbs booed and jeered Serbian Interior Minister Vlajko Stojiljkovic in Fushe Kosova on 21 December after he told them that "terrorism has been defeated [and] only gangs of criminals remain in the field." The Serbs demanded increased police protection following the killing of the town's deputy mayor (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 December 1998). Many Kosova Serbs feel that the government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has not done enough to protect them and that he has already reconciled himself to the loss of the province to its approximately 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority. PM[13] WHAT DID CLARK SAY IN BELGRADE?On 21 December, U.S. General Wesley Clark, who is NATO's chief commander in Europe, and General Dragoljub Ojdanic, the head of the Yugoslav General Staff, discussed "technical details" regarding NATO's aerial surveillance of Kosova. AP quoted unidentified "sources close to the talks" as saying that Clark warned his hosts that NATO might intervene in Kosova if the violence does not stop. There has been no independent confirmation of the news agency's account. PM[14] EVERTS ARGUES UCK HAS NO INCENTIVE TO MAKE PEACEDaan Everts, who is the OSCE's ambassador to Albania, said that the guerrillas "don't see the prospect of a negotiated settlementthat they would be willing to accept, so they're getting ready for the alternative. There has been an enormous rise in militancy [among Kosovars] as a result of the Serb violence over the summer." The diplomat added that "the romantic, rag-tag UCK seems to have given way to more serious, professional military leadership. The holiday fighters have gone home. This is a much more disciplined lot," Reuters reported from Kruma, Albania, on 21 December. The news agency added that the UCK has moved its center of operations in Albania from Tropoja to Kruma and that the guerrillas exercise more discretion in public than they did in Tropoja, where the "flamboyant atmosphere and combustible mixture of greed and violence soon proved trouble for both Albanian officials" and the UCK. PM[15] FRONTIER CLASHES NOW RARE?Unnamed UCK sources told Reuters in Kruma on 21 December that the 14 December border clash that resulted in the death of 36 guerrillas at the hands of Serbian forces was due to the inexperience of the fighters' commander and "possibly [also due] to a traitor" in their ranks (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 December 1998). The sources did not elaborate. They added that incidents have become rare on the border owing to the increasing professionalism of the guerrilla units. PM[16] GEREMEK SAYS NO WILL FOR TALKS IN KOSOVAOSCE chair Bronislaw Geremek said in Sofia on 21 December that neither side in the Kosova conflict has the political will to launch serious talks. In Belgrade the next day, "Danas" quoted unnamed sources "close to the Serbian negotiating team" as saying that the Serbian side remains adamant that it will never enter into talks with the UCK, whom the Serbian authorities call "terrorists," or with the UCK's civilian representatives. In Tirana, the government issued a statement on 21 December calling on the UCK and the moderates led by the Democratic League of Kosova to agree on a joint political platform. The Albanian authorities offered to host talks to that end. PM[17] MONTENEGRIN PARLIAMENT DEBATES CITIZENSHIP LAWThe Social Democrats, who form part of the governing coalition, tabled a proposal in the parliament on 21 December that would make "Montenegro a sovereign state that would be internationally recognized." The mountainous republic would be linked to Serbia only through a "union similar to that joining the Benelux countries," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Supporters of the measure noted that Montenegrin citizenship is a concept that dates back "several centuries," "Danas" added. The pro-Milosevic opposition called for Yugoslav citizenship to be primary and that of Montenegro secondary. The debate continued on 22 December. PM[18] CROATIAN PRIMATE SLAMS RULING ESTABLISHMENTZagreb Archbishop Josip Bozanic said in his Christmas message on 21 December that the Roman Catholic Church does not engage in politics but cannot be silent about "topical questions regarding human freedom and the future of democracy," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In what observers said was a swipe at President Franjo Tudjman and the governing Croatian Democratic Community, Bozanic criticized unnamed persons and political organizations whom he said equate their own interests with those of Croatia. He added that such individuals and groups polarize society and have contributed to an atmosphere in which corruption and injustice flourish. PM[19] COURT FREES FERAL' JOURNALISTSThe Zagreb district court ruled on 21 December that Victor Ivancic, who is the former editor-in- chief of the Split-based satirical weekly "Feral Tribune," and Marinko Culic, who is a journalist with that paper, did not slander Tudjman in a 1996 article in which they compared the Croatian president to Spain's Francisco Franco. A court acquitted the two of the charge in 1996, but Tudjman's lawyers appealed the decision. In their defense, the journalists noted that Tudjman has publicly compared himself to Franco. PM[20] MAJKO, BERISHA MEET FOR FIRST TIME...Albanian Prime Minister Pandeli Majko and former President Sali Berisha met in Tirana on 21 December and pledged to help end a 12-day student hunger strike (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 December 1998). Berisha said he is "optimistic" that the government and the students will soon come to an agreement. He told AP that "this government is more sensitive on different issues than [previous] Socialist governments." Majko and Democratic Party Secretary-General Genc Pollo held talks with students later that day, "Albanian Daily News" reported. Student leader Besnik Jaku said later that the students have dropped their demand for the government to resign, and he stressed that their main demands are for better housing and higher scholarships. Pollo told Reuters that the government has shown "flexibility" in trying to meet the students' demands. FS[21] ... LAUNCH INDEPENDENT MURDER INVESTIGATIONBerisha proposed to Majko that an independent prosecutor be appointed to investigate the Azem Hajdari murder case (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 December 1998). He suggested that the mandate of that special prosecutor be defined in a separate law. According to Reuters, Majko agreed to the proposal. Following the meeting, Berisha said that he and Majko had agreed on a "common" stand on the Kosova problem. He did not elaborate. FS[22] ALBANIAN PROSECUTOR DROPS ARREST THREAT AGAINST BERISHAProsecutor-General Arben Rakipi told the "Albanian Daily News" of 22 December that he will not order Berisha's arrest. He had earlier threatened the opposition leader with imprisonment unless he testifies as a defendant over his alleged involvement in a 14 September coup attempt. Rakipi, however, stressed that Berisha has lost the chance to clarify his role in the unrest. Rakipi declined to say whether he will remove his subordinate Bujar Himci from the investigation, as Berisha's lawyers have demanded (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 December 1998). FS[23] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONA joint session of the parliament's two chambers on 21 December rejected a no- confidence motion moved by the leftist-nationalist opposition (the Party of Social Democracy in Romania, the Greater Romania Party, and the Party of Romanian National Unity). The vote was 283 to 163. The opposition accused the government of driving the country to economic collapse and demanded early elections. Premier Radu Vasile accused the opposition of having stalled on privatization between 1990 and 1996. He said former communist countries that carried out privatization earlier are better off than Romania, where, as a result of the world economic uncertainty, there are low revenues from the cabinet's privatization drive. He also said that unless Romania satisfies IMF and World Bank conditions and quickly introduces reforms, it may have to default on its international debt. MS[24] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT RETURNS LAW TO PARLIAMENTPresident Petru Lucinschi has returned the law on administrative- territorial reform to the parliament "for improvements," presidential spokesman Anatol Golea told journalists on 21 December. Golea said that Lucinschi believes the law pays too little attention to the means of financing new local government structures. The president also disagrees with the stipulation that the parliament, rather than the government, should arbitrate in case of border disputes between the newly established counties. In addition, Lucinschi said the Taraclia district, which has a large Bulgarian minority, must be preserved as a separate local administration entity and be turned into an administratively independent county, Infotag reported. MS[25] POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER IN BULGARIABronislaw Geremek met with his Bulgarian counterpart, Nadezhda Mihailova, on 21 December and discussed bilateral relations, international issues, and Bulgaria's bid to join the EU, BTA reported. Geremek praised Bulgaria's role in the search for a solution to the Kosova problem. He was also received by Premier Ivan Kostov and parliamentary chairman Yordan Sokolov. MS[26] GAZPROM AGREES TO BARTER TRADE FOR SOME SUPPLIES TO BULGARIABTA reported on 19 December that Gazprom has agreed "in principle" to accept Bulgarian deliveries of food worth $14 million in exchange for 30 percent of its gas deliveries, on condition that the gas is supplied directly to consumers rather than channeled to them through the Bulgargaz state company. Gazprom says the deliveries must be done through Overgaz, a Gazprom subsidiary registered in Bulgaria, to cover Overgaz's debts to the Russian company. MS[C] END NOTE[27] THE DECLINE AND FALL OF VLADIMIR VINOGRADOVby Julie A. CorwinThe rise of former Inkombank President Vladimir Vinogradov to the top of Russia's financial and political circles was rapid, but his fall was even quicker. In a little over two months, Vinogradov went from being one of Russia's handful of "oligarchs," a small elite of powerful businessmen and financiers who reportedly rule the nation, to the disgraced former head of a financial institution on the brink of receivership. Come 28 January, when a Moscow arbitration court hears a bankruptcy case filed by private creditors against Inkombank, the bank's actual status will be clearer. However, few analysts believe that much remains of Inkombank that is worth preserving. Those individuals and institutions who once expressed an interest in saving the bank--National Reserve Bank Chairman Aleksandr Lebedev, Gazprom Deputy Chairman Sergei Dubinin, and Union of Industrialists and Entrepeneurs head Arkadii Volskii--say that Inkombank is beyond saving. Its liabilities exceed its assets, Lebedev announced on 23 November. Volskii was more blunt, saying top managers at Inkombank "had been playing dishonest games" and were "transferring Inkombank assets to other firms." Ten years ago, Inkombank started in the kitchen of Vladimir Vinogradov's communal apartment. Vinogradov was working in a state bank at a "low- paying" job that was "boring." So, according to him, he and two friends started a commercial bank. Later, they moved their "headquarters" to the top room of a bar on the outskirts of Moscow, where they managed to attract nine shareholders including the economics think-tank, the Plekhanov Institute; the association of aircraft manufacturers, Sokol; and the oil and gas pipeline operator, Transneft. They then approached Central Bank for a credit of 10 million rubles. They got it, although the official who okayed the loan was let go soon after, according to Vinogradov. In September 1998, Inkombank got its last break from the Central Bank--a $100 million loan--from another outgoing official, its chairman, Sergei Dubinin. The loan was just one of many parting gifts to troubled commercial banks from Dubinin, who knew he was leaving, a source at an international financial institution told RFE/RL. When Viktor Gerashchenko replaced Dubinin, Inkombank's last hope was to be designated one of Russia's "socially important" banks. These banks, though basically insolvent, were still considered worth saving with a massive influx of government cash. As Russia's second-largest bank in terms of private deposits and third- largest in terms of assets, Inkombank might have seemed a good candidate. It also serviced 10 percent of Russia's total foreign trade and 4-5 percent of the country's bank accounts, according to "Kommersant-Daily." But if Inkombank's example is any indication, then the emphasis in the phrase "socially important" should perhaps be on the first word, socially. Gerashchenko and Vinogradov do not like each other, according to a variety of sources. Vinogradov had earned Gerashchenko's hostility during Gerashchenko's last reign at the Central Bank through his frequent criticisms of Gerashchenko's policy as a vocal member of the Association of Russian Banks. In an official statement after it pulled Inkombank's license on 29 October, the Central Bank explained that Inkombank "had taken excessive risks ahead of the 17 August [ruble] devaluation and its obligations dwarfed its assets." It is true that Inkombank persisted in writing forward currency contracts much longer than its counterparts. According to Fitch IBCA estimates, Inkombank had concluded between $12-14 billion in forward currency contracts by mid August. It is not clear, however, that Inkombank acted that much more imprudently than Menatep, Most Bank, and SBS-Agro, all of which have been granted a second life. It is also not yet clear whether Vinogradov's tale is one of rags to riches back to rags again. In addition to Volskii's charge, the head of Moscow's Tax Police accused Inkombank management of diverting funds intended for tax payment. And analysts cited by the "Moscow Times" on 15 December noted that Inkombank's ownership in food-processing, metals, and aerospace enterprises had been carefully structured to allow for easy asset-stripping, since most of the holdings are not owned directly by Inkombank but by "affiliated persons" possibly leading back to Vinogradov. Among the bank's holdings were a 26 percent interest in the giant Magnitogorsk steelworks, of which only 3 percent is owned directly by the bank. The bank also owned an extensive collection of Russian avant-garde painting, including Kazimir Malevich's "Black Square," according to "Argumenty i Fakty." In the meantime, at least some of Inkombank's depositors are anxious about the fate of their savings. Three years ago, Galina Oleinikova, a university professor in St. Petersburg, put her entire life savings, as well those of her mother, which she had inherited, into an Inkombank interest-bearing U.S. dollar account. On 5 September 1998, she sent a registered express letter, asking that her account be transferred to a U.S. bank in California, where she is now living. She got no response, and although she was worried, she didn't panic because she believed "President Yeltsin and other Russian leaders who said that bank accounts of individuals would be protected." Now she is panicking. A friend in St. Petersburg acting on her behalf told her that she still has the option of transferring her money to Sberbank, but she will have no access to it for two years and will be reimbursed in rubles, not dollars. In the meantime, her daughter, a high school senior, is heading off to college, but since she is not yet a U.S. citizen, will not qualify for a scholarship, despite her excellent grade point average. Her American husband, who is recuperating from two surgeries, cannot provide any financial assistance. Perhaps the Central Bank can spare her a few dollars short of $100 million, but she is likely not considered "socially important" enough. 22-12-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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