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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 221, 98-11-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 221, 16 November 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] MODEST TURNOUT AT GEORGIAN LOCAL ELECTIONSInitial returns indicate that turnout at the 15 November Georgian municipal elections was low, though above the required 33.3 percent minimum nationwide, according to Caucasus Press. The ruling Union of Citizens of Georgia reportedly received a majority in Tbilisi and in the predominantly Armenian-populated region of Samtskhe- Djavakheti. Voting was marred by minor procedural violations in a number of places, including Krtsanisi, where President Eduard Shevardnadze was allowed to cast his vote without producing his passport. LF[02] GEORGIAN FINANCE MINISTER RESIGNSAs widely anticipated, Shevardnadze on 14 November accepted the resignation of 28-year-old Mikhail Chkuaseli, who had served as finance minister since May 1997. Chkuaseli told journalists that he had intended to resign two months ago but had changed his mind after the parliament approved changes in the tax code and the government implemented IMF recommendations to mobilize tax revenues. But those measures have not had the desired effect: Chkuaseli complained on 11 November that budget revenues do not exceed 100,000 lari ($75,000) per day, while state expenditures are 2 million lari per day. Addressing the state financial stabilization commission the same day, Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze said the budget shortfall for the first 10 months of 1998 was 160 million lari. LF[03] NO COMPROMISE ON ARMENIAN ELECTION LAWRepresentatives of the Yerkrapah parliamentary group, the largest in the legislature, held three-day talks last week with opposition representatives but failed to reach agreement on a new election law, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 13 November. Yerkrapah wants most seats in the new parliament to be allocated under a majoritarian system, while an alternative draft law supported by 11 other political parties represented in the parliament prefers the proportional system. Eduard Yegorian, leader of the Hairenik group and author of the alternative draft law, termed the talks "a farce" and accused Yerkrapah of unwillingness to compromise on any major issue. LF[04] ARMENIA POSTPONES PLANNED POPULATION CENSUSMinister of Statistics Stepan Mnatsakanian told ITAR-TASS on 14 November that the nationwide census planned for next year has been postponed until 2001 because the draft budget for 1999 does not provide the necessary funds. As of 1 November, Armenia's population was officially estimated at 3, 780,000. LF[05] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION LEADER CHARGED WITH INSULTING PRESIDENTThe Ministry of Justice announced on 13 November that former President Abulfaz Elchibey, chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, has been charged with defaming the honor and dignity of his successor as president, Heidar Aliev, Reuters and Interfax reported. That crime is punishable by up to six years' imprisonment. Elchibey had affirmed in articles published in two independent newspapers last week that Aliev was instrumental in the creation of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). On 14 November, the recently formed Movement for Democracy that unites 23 opposition parties called off a demonstration planned for the following day after the Baku city authorities refused permission to hold it, Interfax reported. On 13 November, the Azerbaijani parliament had passed legislation limiting the right to hold public demonstrations. LF[06] ANOTHER KAZAKH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BARRED FROM RUNNINGCentral Electoral Commission chairwoman Zagipa Baliyeva told Interfax on 13 November that Asylbek Amantai, who heads the Oton public movement, cannot register as a candidate for the 10 January presidential elections. She explained that in February, Amantai was sentenced by a local court on charges of violating regulations for convening meetings and demonstrations. Former Premier Akezhan Kazhegeldin has also been refused registration as a presidential candidate on the same grounds. LF[07] TURKISH PRESIDENT IN KYRGYZSTANArriving in Bishkek on 13 November, Suleyman Demirel discussed bilateral relations with Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev. The following day, he opened the Kyrgyz-Turkish university in Bishkek, in which Turkey has invested $13 million, and visited several Kyrgyz-Turkish joint ventures. Discussing economic cooperation, Demirel warned that Turkey will extend further loans to Kyrgyzstan only after irregularities in the use of a $75 million loan in 1993 have been clarified, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The total volume of Turkish-Kyrgyz trade is $60 million, and Turkey has invested $18 million in Kyrgyzstan's Manas free economic zone. Demirel had left Turkmenistan for Kyrgyzstan on 13 November without either signing an anticipated joint communique or holding a press conference with his Turkmen counterpart, Saparmurat Niyazov, Interfax reported. LF[08] UZBEKISTAN AGAIN DENIES ABETTING TAJIK REBELSThe Uzbek Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 13 November rejecting as "completely groundless" accusations made the previous day by Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov that the Uzbek leadership provided support to the leaders of the failed revolt in Tajikistan two weeks ago, Reuters reported. Addressing the Tajik parliament the same day, Rakhmonov softened his rhetoric, urging deputies not to fuel enmity between the Tajik and Uzbek peoples, according to ITAR-TASS. Also on 13 November, Tajik National Reconciliation Commission chairman Said Abdullo Nuri, who also heads the United Tajik Opposition, appealed to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan officially to condemn the revolt in order to deter UN members from further interfering in Tajikistan's internal affairs. In Bishkek on 14 November, CIS Executive Secretary Boris Berezovskii warned that the deterioration in Tajik-Uzbek relations poses a threat to the entire CIS. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] MACEDONIAN COALITION HEADED FOR PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITYThe center-right coalition of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO-DPMNE) and the Democratic Alternative (DA) is ahead in the race for five out of seven legislative seats. Voting for those seats was repeated on 15 November because of irregularities in the previous round, Radio Skopje reported (see "End Note," "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 November 1998). If the final total is in keeping with the preliminary results, the VMRO-DA coalition will have 63 out of 120 seats and will not need additional coalition partners in order to form a majority. Observers note, however, that the two parties are likely to continue talks with the Democratic Party of the Albanians in order to form a broader-based government. U.S. Ambassador to Macedonia Chris Hill recently urged DA leader Vasil Tupurkovski to include at least one mainly Albanian party in the coalition, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 14 November. PM[10] BELGRADE WARNS MACEDONIA OVER NATO BASEYugoslav Deputy Foreign Minister Zoran Novakovic delivered an "energetic protest" on 15 November to the Macedonian charge d'affaires. He warned Skopje not to provide a base for NATO's proposed rapid reaction force, which will rescue endangered international monitors in Kosova (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 November 1998). Novakovic said that "any military action [from Macedonian soil] against Yugoslavia would be contrary to the long- term interests of the two countries.... It would not be understandable [to Belgrade] that a friendly country allows abuse of its territory for military actions against another friendly, neighboring country." The VMRO- DA coalition was not sympathetic to the NATO request during the election campaign but has subsequently warmed to the proposal. Observers suggested that offending Belgrade may be the price Skopje will have to pay if it wants further integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, which all political parties regard as crucial. PM[11] SOLANA TELLS SERBS NOT TO HARM MONITORSNATO Secretary General Javier Solana said in Rome on 16 November that "NATO will not tolerate that the verifiers [in Kosova] be attacked or endangered.... A few days ago [NATO] decided on the operational plan for the [rapid reaction] extraction force and we are going to do our best...to guarantee [their] security." The previous day near Duha, southwest of Prishtina, a Yugoslav army vehicle fired a burst from a machine gun over a car in which three U.S. diplomatic observers were riding. An OSCE spokesman in Prishtina said that "random firing is not in the spirit of the cease-fire agreement." The Yugoslav army then argued in a statement that "the members of the U.S. mission in the...car interpreted the exhaust pipe [backfiring] as shooting," Reuters reported. PM[12] UCK CALLS FOR DONATIONSThe Kosova Liberation Army published a statement in the Prishtina daily "Koha Ditore" on 15 November in which it told Kosovars that they "are obliged to help the UCK fund inside the country [as well as abroad], because by helping the war, they help freedom, independence, and democracy in Kosova." PM[13] SERBIAN PRESIDENT URGES KOSOVARS TO JOIN TALKSMilan Milutinovic on 15 November called on Kosovars to join Serbian officials in talks on 18 November in the presence of U.S., Austrian, Russian, and Chinese diplomats. Kosovar spokesman Fehmi Agani has rejected that offer. In the past, Kosovar leaders have rejected Serbian offers of talks as propaganda. The Kosovar leadership argues that talks can take place only after all Belgrade's forces have left the province and only with a Yugoslav--not a Serbian--delegation that includes Montenegrins. The U.S. and Austrian diplomats whom the Serbs asked to attend have said they will be elsewhere on that date. PM[14] SESELJ WANTS DODIK TO BECOME 'GOVERNOR OF ALABAMA'NATO peacekeepers told Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj on 14 November that he is persona non grata in Bosnia and must leave Banja Luka, where he was attending an inaugural party for his political ally, Nikola Poplasen, as president of the Republika Srpska. General Jacques Klein, who is a deputy to the international community's Carlos Westendorp, gave the order for Seselj's expulsion. Seselj left peacefully, but said in Belgrade on 15 November that he will order "10,000 baseball bats" to enable Serbs to resist NATO. He added that moderate Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik "works for the Americans [who should help him] to become governor of Alabama," Radio B-92 reported. Poplasen on 15 November nominated nationalist candidate Dragan Kalinic to replace Dodik. Observers said that Kalinic is unlikely to be able to form a parliamentary majority. PM[15] HAGUE COURT SENTENCES THREE FOR CRIMES AGAINST SERBSOn 16 November, the Hague-based war crime tribunal sentenced two Muslims and their Croatian commander to a total of 42 years in prison for crimes against Serbs at the Celibici concentration camp in 1992. The court acquitted a third Muslim. The 20 month-long trial was the longest the tribunal has held and the first at which the defendants were convicted of atrocities against Serbs. PM[16] ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT TAKES ACTION AGAINST CUSTOMS EVASIONDeputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta ordered national customs police on 15 November not to let any trucks into the country unless the drivers first pay customs duties, dpa reported. Meta told the cabinet that "truck drivers are seeking to corrupt Albanian customs officials and bring goods into Albania without paying customs duties." According to Albanian Television, more than 50 trucks are lined up at three border checkpoints with Greece and Macedonia and some have been there for more than 10 days. Some two weeks ago, the authorities sacked corrupt customs officials, whom the truckers were accustomed to bribing. Finance Minister Anastas Angjeli said the line of trucks is particularly long at the Macedonian border crossing point of Qafe e Thanes. Angjeli added that the government recently deployed "special police groups...at all customs posts" to combat corruption, including at ports and Tirana airport. FS[17] ISLAMIST MURDER SUSPECT SENTENCED IN ALBANIAA Tirana court on 14 November sentenced Claude Cheik Ben Abdel Kader to 20 years in prison for the murder of his Albanian translator under circumstances that have not been fully clarified. According to dpa, Kader told the court that he considers himself a victim of Christian persecution and that he will take revenge as soon as he leaves prison. Kader previously told the court that he is an associate of Osama Bin Laden, a Saudi millionaire believed to be the mastermind behind the August U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 November 1998). He also said that his mission in Albania was to organize fighters for the UCK. Kader, however, failed to accomplish that aim, AP reported. FS[18] ALBANIAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT JUDGE LINKS BOMB TO REFERENDUMConstitutional Court Chief Judge Fehmi Abdiu told "Gazeta Shqiptare" on 13 November that a bomb attack on his home two days earlier was part of a plot to obstruct the 22 November referendum on the draft constitution (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 November 1998). Police spokesmen said they have arrested eight suspects but did not disclose their identities. In other news, Prime Minister Pandeli Majko, visiting Athens the same day, urged Greeks not to view his countrymen as a nation of criminals. He told a news conference that "Albanians in Greece want to do honest work." There has been a growing tendency among Greeks in recent years to link Albanian migrant workers with crime. FS[19] DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION OF ROMANIA TO SPLIT?Valeriu Stoica, deputy chairman of the National Liberal Party (PNL), said in Targu Mures on 15 November that the "balance of forces within the Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR) has changed" and that while the PNL has "taken over the helm," its National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) partner is divided by conflict. Stoica said the PNTCD will be forced to sign a new CDR protocol reflecting this change. Local branches of the two parties "should be allowed to decide themselves" whether to run on separate or joint lists in the local elections scheduled for 2000, Stoica said. On 13 November, the PNL National Council approved a 20-point program for "cleansing and re- launching" the economy, saying it must be implemented before the end of 1998. MS[20] LUCINSCHI SAYS HE MIGHT HAVE TO DECLARE EMERGENCY STATE...President Petru Lucinschi told journalists on 13 November that the country's economic crisis might force him to declare a state of emergency. He refused to reply to a question about whether he has such a prerogative under the constitution. He added that he dismissed Transportation and Communication Minister Tudor Leanca at the request of Premier Ion Ciubuc and that the significance of that decision has been "inflated." The dismissal of the government when the country is facing a crisis would be "untimely," he commented, according to RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau. MS[21] ...HOPES TRANSDNIESTER SETTLEMENT IMMINENTLucinschi said he hopes agreement on a special status for the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Transdniester will be reached at the summit in Kyiv on 27-29 November. He said one of the main unresolved problems is that of the military equipment that Russia left in the region, adding that "in the past three years, [Moscow] has withdrawn 3,900 soldiers but only two tanks." The same day, Lucinschi received a telegram from Gazprom director Rem Vyakhirev saying that in view of Moldova's repeated failure to abide by agreements for settling its debt, Gazprom will reduce and eventually cut off supplies to Moldova. He added that his company is pulling out of a deal to take over a controlling stake in the MoldovaGas joint venture in exchange for part settlement of the debt by government bonds. MS[22] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT PARTLY OVERRULES PRESIDENTIAL VETOLawmakers on 13 November overruled President Petar Stoyanov's veto on one of the articles in the new media law and banned broadcasts of television advertisements during prime time, Reuters reported. This was the only article overruled by the legislators, who accepted several other objections made by Stoyanov and allowed, among other things, state television and radio broadcasts in the languages of Bulgaria's ethnic minorities, including Turkish. MS[23] BOMB EXPLODES OUTSIDE DEPUTY'S HOMEA bomb exploded on 15 November outside the home of Georgi Shishkov, a parliamentary deputy representing the Union of Democratic Forces, BTA reported. A few months ago Shishkov accused former high-ranking Socialist Party officials of involvement in smuggling . He was at home when the blast occurred but was not injured. MS[C] END NOTE[24] REPLACING SKRUNDAby Paul GobleIn yet another indication that Moscow can still find funds for activities it deems essential, the Russian military will soon open a radar base in Belarus to replace the Skrunda site in Latvia, which was shut down in the summer. According to a recent report in the Moscow newspaper "Nezavisimaya gazeta," construction of the new base, to be located near the Belarusian city of Baranovichi, was delayed for five years because of "insufficient funding." As a result of those delays, much of the equipment for it is no longer in working order after being stored for so long. But, the newspaper reports, Moscow recently found the funds and ordered construction carried out at "forced march tempi." The early warning radar system will soon be in service to protect Russia's Northwest. "Nezavisimaya gazeta" suggests that this project reflects the growing military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk. Indeed, it published this story under precisely that rubric. But in fact, the opening of what the newspaper called an "alternative" to Skrunda points to three much larger issues. First, Moscow's construction of a new site in Belarus undermines Russia's long-standing claims, supported by many in the West, that the Skrunda site was integral to East-West arms accords and that Moscow had no choice but to continue to operate the Skrunda site in Latvia long after Soviet power fell there. Indeed, it was largely on the basis of these Russian claims that the Latvian government was pressured into allowing the Russian military to continue to operate the Skrunda site until this summer, four years after the last Russian soldier left, and to have another 18 months to dismantle it. Second, Moscow's ability to find the funds needed for this plant at a time when the Russian government faces so many financial problems seems certain to raise a number of questions in Western countries to which Moscow has applied for assistance. Indeed, the Baranovichi installation is not the only one of its kind: the Russian military is putting on line a variety of new weapons systems even as some of its units are forced to open soup kitchens for soldiers and officers. Some governments are likely to ask just how cash- pressed the Russian government is if it can construct such expensive bases. They may also inquire where the Russian authorities got the cash for such installations. Did the Russian government divert some Western assistance intended for shoring up the Russian economy into strengthening the Russian army? Johannes Linn, World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia, recently told RFE/RL that the bank does not have control over the exact use of its so-called structural adjustment loans, granted in exchange for policy changes that the bank believes will be beneficial to the debtor country as whole. At the same time, Linn said that while the bank does not control every dollar the Russian government spends and in particular, does not control the military budget, it has recently agreed to review with Moscow the government's public expenditures program in order to identify high- and low-priority expenses. But while closer control over budget allocations may appease concerns in some quarters, there is likely to be considerable resistance in the West to any plans for providing monetary assistance to the Russian government following the announcement about Baranovichi. At the very least, Russian military construction of the kind taking place in Belarus almost certainly will cause Western governments to conclude they should supply only non-cash aid to Moscow because such assistance, be it food or medical supplies, is far less easy to divert to other purposes. Third, Moscow's decision to build this site in Belarus points to one of the ways the Russian authorities are coping with their loss of control over the Baltic States. Their willingness to live up to their commitment to shut down the Skrunda site in Latvia demonstrates that most in Moscow are coming to accept that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are no longer part of what some in Russia call its natural "sphere of influence," which they view as also embracing the former Soviet republics. This does not mean that Moscow will avoid using a variety of non-military means to put pressure on the governments of these countries. Rather, it suggests that the Russian authorities recognize that any direct use of military power in that region would almost certainly be counterproductive. Moreover, Moscow's acceptance of this new reality in the Baltic States makes its interest in Belarus and other former Soviet republics along its western borders all the greater. That, in turn. suggests that Moscow is likely to press for additional forms of military cooperation with these countries, either bilaterally or under the cover of the Commonwealth of Independent States. To the extent that happens, replacing Skrunda with Baranovichi appears likely to reverberate through the new security architecture of this still unsettled region. 16-11-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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