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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 217, 98-11-10Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 217, 10 November 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMEN IN BAKUThe Russian, French, and U.S. co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group met with Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev in Baku on 9 November and presented new proposals for resolving the Karabakh conflict. Those proposals are based on the concept of a "union-state" comprising Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, according to Reuters. They also focus on the problem of displaced persons. ITAR-TASS quoted Aliev as saying that "the principle of a single state deserves attention" but that the new initiatives need to be thoroughly studied before the Azerbaijani side can express a formal opinion. Aliev's foreign policy adviser Vafa Gulu-zade told journalists that Baku regards the new proposals "very negatively" as the term "union-state" is ambiguous. Gulu-zade said Azerbaijan will not retreat from the so-called Lisbon principles, which provide for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan. LF[02] NEW AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FORMEDTwenty-three Azerbaijani opposition parties have announced their alignment in a new Movement for Democracy, ITAR-TASS reported on 9 November. The primary objective of the movement is to campaign for new presidential elections. The movement does not recognize the outcome of the 11 October presidential poll, in which Aliev was reelected with 76 percent of the vote, according to official returns. The Azerbaijan National Independence Party, headed by Etibar Mamedov, one of the defeated presidential candidates, has not joined the new movement. But Mamedov and representatives of 27 other parties signed a declaration on 9 November condemning the elections as falsified and affirming that "Heidar Aliev and his entourage have usurped power." LF[03] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION ACCUSES LEADERSHIP OVER VIOLENCEThe leadership of the opposition Democratic Party and of the Movement for Electoral Reform and Democratic Elections have released official statements claiming that a group of young men in civilian clothes who attacked and beat up opposition leaders at the 8 November Baku rally are employees of a company owned by the brother of President Aliev, Turan reported on 9 November. Azerbaijani Prosecutor-General Eldar Hasanov condemned the attack at a 9 November meeting with Azerbaijan Popular Front Party board member Alimamed Nuriev, assuring him that criminal proceedings will be brought against the attackers. LF[04] ARMENIA, RUSSIA TO RESUME DIAMOND COOPERATIONRussian officials, including the president of Almazy-Sakha-Rossii, met on 9 November in Yerevan with President Robert Kocharian to discuss the prospects for renewing cooperation in diamond-cutting, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Armenia was one of the leading centers of the Soviet diamond-processing industry before the collapse of the USSR, and diamonds remain one of its main export items. But since the early 1990s, South Africa's De Beers corporation has replaced Russia as Armenia's main supplier. A formal agreement whereby Russia will provide Armenia with uncut diamonds for processing is to be signed by the end of this year, according to Noyan Tapan. LF[05] TAJIK PRESIDENT DECLARES DAY OF MOURNING...Imomali Rakhmonov declared 10 November a day of mourning for victims of an attempted rebellion in the northern part of Tajikistan, ITAR-TASS reported. Red Cross workers visited some of the scenes of the fighting the previous day. They report that more than 500 victims of the fighting are in Khujand hospitals, some 40 families are without shelter, and more than 2,000 houses are damaged. The Tajik government issued a statement the same day requesting that other CIS countries help apprehend the leaders of the rebellion, who are believed to have fled the country. Tajik presidential spokesman Zafar Saidov has said there are unconfirmed reports that some of the rebel leaders have escaped to Uzbekistan. The Uzbek Foreign Ministry released a statement calling such statements "slanderous." The UN mission to Tajikistan also criticized reports on Tajik Television claiming the UN knew about the rebellion in advance. BP[06] ...WHILE INVESTIGATORS SEEK TO PIECE TOGETHER FACTSTajik investigators examining the attempted rebellion in Leninabad Region say they have documents that support Rakhmonov's assertion that the rebels planned a coup, ITAR-TASS reported on 9 November. Investigators found rebel maps indicating strategic targets not only in Leninabad Region but also in Dushanbe, the southern city of Kurgan-Tyube, and the Karategin Valley, east of Dushanbe. The attacks were planned "outside the country" and some of the rebels trained in Afghanistan, the investigators say. Some media reports during the rebellion claimed that among the rebels were soldiers of Afghan General Abdul Rashid Dostum. The Tajik government has released a list of those suspected of planning the attack. They include former Prime Minister Abdumalik Abdullojonov, former army Colonel Mahmud Khudaberdiyev, and former Customs Committee Chairman Yakub Salimov. BP[07] RUSSIAN RUBLE DOING WELL IN KAZAKHSTANITAR-TASS on 9 November reported that there is a growing demand for Russian rubles in Kazakhstan. The ruble's value on the Almaty stock exchange climbed 15 percent in the last week and is currently exchanged for 5.1-5.3 Kazakh tenge ($1=81 tenge). At currency exchange offices, the ruble can be bought at 4.5 tenge; it can then be sold at rates18-20 percent higher. Over the past week, the total volume of ruble transactions at the Almaty stock exchange amounted to 1.65 million rubles, the largest amount since before the Russian economic crisis began. BP[08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT IN GOOD HEALTHThe German cardiologist who performed cardiac surgery on Saparmurat Niyazov in September 1997, has re-examined the Turkmen president and said his health has significantly improved, ITAR-TASS reported. Dr. Hans Meisner said it helps that Niyazov has quit smoking but warned that the president often disregards doctors' advice not to overburden himself. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] UCK CONFIRMS CONTACTS WITH U.S.Bardhyl Mahmuti, who is a spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) in Switzerland, confirmed in Geneva on 9 November that representatives of the guerrillas recently met in Kosova with Chris Hill, who is U.S. ambassador to Macedonia and Washington's chief envoy in the Kosova crisis (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 November 1998). Mahmuti added that unnamed U.S. diplomats also brought Hill's proposals on an interim political settlement to UCK leaders in Geneva, which is where the UCK conducts most of its fundraising activities and makes its key political decisions, Reuters reported. Mahmuti said he and his colleagues "are studying the documents" that the diplomats brought them. He added that "our meeting shows that the Americans now have official contact with the UCK." PM[10] REVENGE KILLINGS IN KOSOVA?Serbian police displayed to journalists in Malisheva on 9 November the corpses of two colleagues who had gone missing the previous Friday (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 November 1998). Both bodies had been mutilated and had gunshot wounds to the head, which indicates they had been executed, a Serbian police spokesman said. "The Daily Telegraph" reported that the killings appear to have been carried out by the UCK in revenge for the recent death of five guerrillas, apparently in an ambush. In Prishtina, the Kosovar KIC news agency reported on 9 November that Serbian police shelled three ethnic Albanian villages in the area during the previous night. He added that unless what he called "international representatives" secure two main roads running through Malisheva by 11 November, the police will increase their patrols to "permit safe passage." He did not elaborate. PM[11] EU DISPLEASED WITH PACE OF DEMOCRATIZATIONThe EU's Council of Ministers said in a statement in Brussels on 9 November that the Yugoslav authorities must "completely and fully" implement UN Security Council Resolution 1199 on Kosova, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Belgian capital. The ministers also called on Belgrade to grant full freedom of movement to the OSCE's monitoring mission in the troubled province and to allow the Hague-based war crimes tribunal to conduct investigations there. The ministers added that Croatia, Bosnia, federal Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania have not made sufficient progress toward democratization for the EU to upgrade its relations with them. PM[12] CROATIAN LEGISLATORS CRITICAL OF EUIn Brussels, Croatian diplomats said on 9 November that they are not pleased with the ministers' statement on lack of progress toward democratization. At the same time, they said they are not surprised by it, either. In Zagreb, Croatian legislators attending a meeting of the Parliamentary Conference of the Central European Initiative said the EU has recently paid too little attention to the economic needs of the former communist countries and has instead been playing an ever-greater political role in the region. The legislators called the EU's policy an "economic game." And in Ljubljana, Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek said that the Slovenian government is "very much aware" that its "reforms are indeed [proceeding] too slowly." The EU warned Slovenia the previous week that it has not implemented key reforms as quickly as Brussels would like. PM[13] CROATIA, MONTENEGRO SEEK CLOSER TIESMontenegrin President Milo Djukanovic and Croatian Ambassador to Yugoslavia Zvonimir Markovic agreed in Podgorica on 9 November that there "is no rational reason for putting off a settlement to the question of the Prevlaka peninsula," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. They also called for "rapid normalization" of bilateral relations in the economic and cultural spheres. Djukanovic has repeatedly criticized Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic for blocking the normalization of ties between Montenegro and Zagreb and for preventing the reopening of the border crossing at Debeli Brijeg. The Prevlaka peninsula belongs to Croatia but controls access to Yugoslavia's only deep-water naval base, which is located in Montenegro's Kotor Bay. Meanwhile in Zagreb, Economics Minister Nenad Porges confirmed that Croatia has begun exporting oil to Serbia from its facilities on Krk island. PM[14] ALBANIAN DEMOCRATS COMPARE CONSTITUTION TO 'ETHNIC CLEANSING'...Democratic Party leader Sali Berisha told journalists in Tirana on 9 November that the Socialist-backed draft constitution will lead to a "process of massive changes in Albanian [nationhood]" and "a quiet and soft ethnic cleansing, not through massacres, hunger, or diseases but through visas, baptisms, money, and jobs." He added that the draft "destroys Albanian [nationhood]" because it allows citizens to change their declared nationality and religion. He suggested this will enable ethnic Albanians to declare themselves ethnic Greeks in order to improve their chances of emigrating to and finding a job in Greece. The Democrats have called for a boycott of the 22 November referendum on the constitution. FS[15] ...WHILE SCHUESSEL CRITICIZES DEMOCRATSIn Vienna on 9 November, EU Presidency Chairman and Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schuessel urged the opposition to call off the boycott, which he called "no constructive element of democracy," AP reported. Schuessel praised "serious efforts [of the parliament's constitution drafting commission] to ensure the broadest possible participation of all political parties." In Tirana, parliamentary speaker Skender Gjinushi told the "Albanian Daily News" that the Democrats are trying to find faults [in the new constitution] where they do not really exist." He pointed out that the Council of Europe's Venice Commission, which is a body of experts on constitutional law, rejected earlier claims by the Democrats that the draft violates the European Human Rights Convention (see "End Note," "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 October 1998). FS[16] ALBANIAN SMUGGLERS GO NORTH"Gazeta Shqiptare" reported on 8 November that speed-boat operators from Vlora have relocated their smuggling operations northward, to Shengjin. The move follows the arrival of Italian customs police on the southern island of Sazan the previous week (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 November 1998). The newspaper added that most speedboat owners consider the northern routes across the Strait of Otranto to Italy to be safer than the southern ones, despite being longer. FS[17] 'CARLOS' HAS BANK ACCOUNT IN ROMANIAChief military prosecutor Dan Voinea said on 9 November that a current bank account belonging to "Carlos the Jackal" (alias Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, the international terrorist serving a life sentence in France), has been discovered in Romania, Mediafax reported. Voinea said the terrorist's record is under investigation for "crimes against humanity" and "crimes against peace," which carry a life sentence. He added that among Carlos's communist-time contacts in Romania were former Securitate chief General Iulian Vlad, former chief of the Securitate's foreign intelligence service General Nicolae Plesita as well as former Interior Minister Tudor Postelnicu. Carlos is alleged to have been paid by the Ceausescu authorities to kill opponents of the regime abroad. According to some reports, he was behind the February 1981 bomb explosion at RFE/RL headquarters in Munich. MS[18] CLUJ UNIVERSITY SHUTS DOORS ON GOVERNMENT COMMISSION MEMBERS...Gyorgy Tokay, minister in charge of minority issues, says the acting rector of Cluj University, Mircea Muthu, prevented members of the government commission examining the possibility of setting up a Hungarian-language university from entering his university's premises on 7 November, Mediafax reported two days later. Muthu responded that the commission's members "did not submit a written request" to conduct a meeting in the rector's office and that there has been an "alarmingly large telephone bill" for that office. MS[19] ...AS STUDENTS PROTEST PLANS TO SET UP 'MULTICULTURAL' UNIVERSITYOn 9 November, students in Bucharest joined a protest strike by their colleagues in several other towns. That action began several days earlier. Most of the demands are related to poor conditions and a lack of funds, but the students are also demanding that the government revoke the decision to set up a Hungarian-German "multicultural" university. MS[20] EXPLOSION AT BULGARIAN NUCLEAR PLANT UNDER INVESTIGATIONOperators at Bulgaria's controversial Kozloduy nuclear power plant have belatedly reported a transformer explosion, and police are investigating whether sabotage was involved. The incident at the plant occurred on 5 November but was not reported publicly until four days later. In a statement to BTA on 9 November, Deputy Prime Minister Evgeni Bakardzhiev said the incident might be the result of an "act of sabotage by a plant worker" aimed at creating "political tension." BTA reported that after the explosion, output at one of the 440-megawatt reactors was halved until the transformer was repaired later the same day. MS[21] BULGARIA, TURKEY EXPAND MILITARY COOPERATIONIsmet Sezgin, Turkish deputy premier and defense minister, said in Sofia on 9 November that his country will expand military relations with Bulgaria and is willing to contribute to modernizing the Bulgarian army in accordance with NATO standards, an RFE/RL correspondent in the Bulgarian capital reported. Sezgin spoke at the end of a four-day visit, during which he met with President Petar Stoyanov, Defense Minister Georgi Ananiev, and other Bulgarian officials, as well as visiting several military installations. Sezgin said a Turkish military delegation will visit Bulgaria within the next 10 days to receive first-hand information on Bulgaria's military industries and will investigate prospects for that industry's privatization. Sezgin also repeated Turkey's support for Plodviv to be the headquarters of the multinational southeastern European peace- keeping force. MS[C] END NOTE[22] BUCHAREST'S ELECTORAL MESSAGEby Michael ShafirThe electoral victory of the candidate of the Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR) in runoff elections to the Bucharest mayoralty is hardly good news for the party on whose ticket he ran. Acting Mayor Viorel Lis has been in charge of city hall since late 1996, when the previous incumbent, Victor Ciorbea, was appointed prime minister. (When Ciorbea was forced to resign as premier in late March, he refused to return to the mayoralty, hardly able to conceal his bitterness.) Having run city hall for two years, Lis was far better known to the electorate than his opponent, the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) candidate Sorin Oprescu. A surgeon by training, Oprescu is a recent newcomer to politics and his election shows that the PDSR has learned its lesson of 1996, when it had placed its bets on former tennis star Ilie Nastase. Against this background, the narrow margin by which Lis won (50.5 percent compared with 49.5 percent for Oprescu) is hardly a victory over which the CDR can rejoice. It is not Lis's personal performance, however, that appears to cause concern among a large minority of the electorate in the Romanian capital. Bucharest is not exactly on its way to becoming the "Little Paris" that its residents like to think it once was, but city hall is certainly not to blame for that. Arguably, Lis might have fared better had he run as an independent on the strength of his record over the past two years. The reluctance to back Lis reflected the general mood of the Romanian electorate more than one would have expected from a pre-term local election. This must provide food for thought for the CDR. The city is known to be a stronghold of the main ruling alliance. It has been ruled by the CDR since 1992, that is, four years before the general elections that transformed the opposition umbrella organization into the main component of the ruling coalition. The urban electorate in general and in Bucharest in particular has been more inclined to support the CDR than voters in smaller settlements and the countryside. There are signs that this support may be eroding, and the main reason is undoubtedly the ruling coalition's economic mismanagement. If the urban electorate deserts the CDR, there is little hope that support will come from elsewhere. Nationwide opinion polls appear to back that statement. In a survey conducted by the Institute for Research on Life Quality last month, the PDSR topped electoral preferences (29.1 percent), ahead of the CDR with 26.1 percent, for the first time since 1996. Over the previous four months, support for the CDR dropped 8 percentage points, while the PDSR's backing increased by 7 percentage points. Most worrying is the growing popularity of the extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM), which the poll showed to have 17 percent support nationwide. One month earlier, a poll conducted by the Institute for Market and Social Analysis, confirmed both the surge in support for the extremists (15.2 percent in September) and the CDR's waning popularity, although in September the CDR was still ahead of the PDSR. There are several ways in which electorates react to the failure of parties they have previously backed. One way is to turn to extremists who advocate seemingly simple solutions. This appears to be what is happening at the level of the electorate nationwide. The fact that the PRM candidate, former police General Niculae Nitu, scored slightly less than 7 percent in the first leg of the mayoralty elections on 25 October should not be underestimated for three reasons. First, his score was not that low. Second, support for the PRM is obviously less strong in Bucharest than elsewhere. And third, the PRM's backing of Oprescu in the other two rounds that followed this month suggest that the former PDSR-PRM alliance is about to be resuscitated. Another way for the electorate to react to the failures of parties it has backed is simply to stay away from the polls--a sign of disenchantment with politics, which is dangerous in the democratic context. Turnout was low in all three rounds, although highest in the last one, at 37.8 percent. While local elections are not general elections and even less so when they are pre-term ones for a mandate lasting less than two years, the CDR would be well advised not to dismiss the significance of the ballot's results. After all, the harsh steps announced by the government to promote reform (if they are indeed implemented this time, which remains doubtful), the expected budget cuts, and the social unrest they are certain to trigger are all unlikely to boost the CDR's popularity. Had those steps come when they were first announced, the CDR might have begun drawing their political benefits. But as things stand now, the alliance is more likely to pay the political price come election year 2000. 10-11-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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