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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 200, 98-10-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 200, 16 October 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ALIEV CONFIRMED AS AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTThe Central Electoral Commission released the final results of the 11 October presidential poll on 15 October, Turan reported. Those data differ only slightly from the preliminary returns and confirm the reelection of incumbent Heidar Aliev, who polled 76.11 percent of the vote. His closest rival, Etibar Mamedov, received 11.6 percent and Independent Azerbaijan Party chairman Nizami Suleymanov 8.6 percent. The remaining three candidates each polled less than 1 percent. Reuters quoted Mamedov as saying the results were falsified and that he does not recognize Aliev as president. He predicted that the Azerbaijani people will demand that Aliev step down. Mamedov's representative on the Central Electoral Commission, Fuad Agaev, said that he was barred from participating in the protocol tally and that commission chairman Jafar Veliev refused to accept documentation giving details of vote falsification. LF[02] DASHNAK PARTY CALLS FOR PRE-TERM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSMeeting on 15 October with Robert Kocharian, leading members of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (HHD) again urged the president to dissolve the parliament and convene pre-term elections, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The HHD representatives argued that the July 1995 parliamentary elections, in which they were barred from fielding candidates, were "undemocratic" and that the present parliament "does not reflect the correlation of political forces." To date, Kocharian has consistently rejected calls for pre-term elections by either the HHD or other opposition parties, reasoning that such elections should be held only in an "emergency situation." LF[03] KAZAKH AUTHORITIES CRACK DOWN ON POTENTIAL OPPOSITIONLeaders of several of Kazakhstan's opposition parties and movements were taken into custody on 15 October and some were fined and/or jailed, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. Pyotr Svoik of Azamat, Irina Savostina of the Pokoleniye [Generation] Movement of elderly citizens, Mels Eleusizov of the Green Party, political activist Dos Koshim, and others were all accused of "taking part in sessions and mass gatherings of an unregistered movement." That movement is called For Fair Elections. Eleusizov and Svoik were sentenced to three days in jail, while Koshim and Savostina were fined 6,600 tenge ($82) and 3,300 tenge respectively. Under Kazakh law, no one who has been fined or imprisoned is eligible to run for public office. JC[04] OPPOSITION CANDIDATES FOR KAZAKH PRESIDENCY RUN INTO DIFFICULTIES...Murat Auezov, a former leader of Azamat, announced the same day that he is unable to run as a candidate in the January presidential elections. Auezov was found guilty of and fined for organizing an unsanctioned demonstration. There are also reports that former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin is wanted for questioning by law enforcement authorities. Kazhegeldin announced his candidacy for the presidency on 14 October. BP[05] ...WHILE A NEW CONTENDER EMERGESKazakhstan's ambassador to Turkey, Baltash Tursynbayev, announced his candidacy for the presidency on 14 October, RFE/RL correspondents reported. Tursynbayev made the announcement in Moscow. At the same time, he said he is stepping down from his post as ambassador to Turkey. Tursynbayev is also the former governor of Kostenai Oblast. BP[06] BOMBS GO OFF IN TAJIK CAPITALThree bombs exploded in Dushanbe on 15 October, ITAR-TASS and Reuters reported. The first went off outside the building that is the headquarters of the National Reconciliation Commission. The other two exploded 30-40 minutes later in suburban districts of the Tajik capital. No casualties have been reported to date. BP[07] MORE "WAHHABIS" ON TRIAL IN UZBEKISTANFifteen men from the eastern Uzbek city of Andizhan went on trial on 15 October on charges of, among others, terrorism, possession of arms and drugs, robbery, and extortion, Interfax reported. The men are allegedly Wahhabis, the religious group held responsible for several murders in eastern Uzbekistan last December. Five other men, also reported to be Wahhabis, went on trial in Tashkent the same day on similar charges. All suspects face five to 15 years in jail if convicted. These are the first trials involving Wahhabis since early summer, when a series of trials resulted in 26 people receiving prison terms and one being sentenced to death. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[08] ANOTHER REPRIEVE FOR MILOSEVIC?An unnamed NATO diplomat told Reuters on 16 October that alliance ambassadors will agree later that day to extend by 10 days the deadline for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to comply with international demands that he withdraw his forces from Kosova and let refugees go home (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 1998). Originally, 17 October was the deadline for Milosevic to show that he had seriously begun to meet the demands. Other ambassadors told Reuters that it is unclear whether Milosevic will get the10-day reprieve, which some unnamed smaller member states have reportedly requested. PM[09] SOLANA SAYS MILOSEVIC NOT COMPLYINGNATO Secretary-General Javier Solana told Milosevic in Belgrade on 16 October that the alliance knows he is not complying with international demands and warned him to do so lest he face air strikes. Solana said that NATO knows of "many army and special police units that...remain in [the province] even though their barracks are outside [it]..., these units must be withdrawn immediately." He also warned the Yugoslav leader that "any attack with hostile intent against NATO verification aircraft will have the greatest consequence." Solana signed an agreement allowing NATO to overfly Yugoslav territory as part of the package Milosevic agreed with U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke earlier this week. Yugoslav Army Chief-of- Staff General Momcilo Perisic, NATO Supreme Commander General Wesley Clark, and General Klaus Naumann, the chairman of NATO's military committee, signed the overflight agreement. PM[10] PLANS TAKE SHAPE FOR VERIFICATION MISSIONPolish Ambassador to the OSCE Adam Kobieracki, whose country holds the rotating chair of that organization, told Reuters in Vienna on 15 October that the first of 2,000 civilian verification experts should have arrived in Kosova by 24 October. He did not say how large that initial contingent will be. In related news in New York, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said that a "mission" of unspecified size will arrive in Kosova on 17 or 18 October to be able to inform Annan firsthand of conditions on the ground there. Annan had recently complained that he could not evaluate the situation in Kosova because he does not have his own sources of information in the region (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 October 1998). PM[11] KOSOVARS BLAME U.S. FOR 'SELL-OUT'Several Kosovar spokesmen said in Prishtina on 14-15 October that Holbrooke knowingly sold out Kosovar interests in order to reach an agreement with Milosevic. One spokesman referred to the Milosevic-Holbrooke pact as "peace in our time" in a reference to the 1938 Munich Agreement. Bardhyl Mahmuti, a spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), told Reuters in Geneva on 15 October that "certain elements in the U.S. administration are lying. They are hiding the facts on the ground to pretend the peace deal is working. But there's no progress.... There is no sign of a withdrawal by Serb forces. The truth is there's shelling every day. U.S. satellite pictures would easily confirm that.... The Americans know what's going on. The Serbs are setting up new positions.... Milosevic is continuing his policy of ethnic cleansing, shelling and barbarism. But there is deafening silence" from the West, he concluded. PM[12] SURROI WARNS OF BANNINGThe Serbian Information Ministry on 15 October banned the independent daily "Nasa Borba." This is the third daily to be shut down this week under a decree forbidding the dissemination of "fear, defeatism, and panic" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1998). In Prishtina, Veton Surroi, the editor in chief of the leading Kosovar daily "Koha Ditore," wrote on 16 October that he expects his newspaper will also be banned. He added: "I would not be surprised if the regime would torch this office. A regime that eliminates women and children-- victims of a war against the civilians-- knows no shame and does not have scruples or conscience." Surroi concluded: "If they ban us...this will pass. If they ban us, we will try to get around it. This is a law of struggle against censorship.... Those who will ban us today will be in a rubbish basket tomorrow. And we will call in our newspaper for a ban on allowing them entry into Kosova, even with passports." PM[13] ANOTHER TUDJMAN AIDE QUITSFranjo Greguric on 15 October submitted his resignation to President Franjo Tudjman as the representative of the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) to the mainly Muslim and Croatian Federation of Bosnia- Herzegovina, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He is the third leading representative of the HDZ's moderate faction to quit a top post recently in the wake of an apparent victory of the Herzegovinian hard- liners over the moderates (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1998). PM[14] UN ENDS MISSION IN EASTERN SLAVONIAUN officials formally ended the world organization's civilian police mission in eastern Slavonia on 15 October. The OSCE will now assume responsibility for the international police presence in the region, which the local Serbs consider essential to ensure their safety from ethnically motivated incidents. The UN completed its temporary administration of eastern Slavonia on 15 January, when Croatia reasserted control. Many remaining Serbian civilians now fear that Croats will take revenge on them for destruction, ethnic cleansing, and atrocities that Croats suffered during the 1991-1995 conflict. PM[15] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WELCOMES PARLIAMENT DECISION ON NATO REQUESTEmil Constantinescu praised the Romanian parliament's approval on 14 October of a NATO request to have access to the country's air space in case of military intervention in Yugoslavia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1998), Rompres reported. Constantinescu said the vote is proof of parliament's ability to overcome political disputes and biases out of concern for national interests. In other news, a 31-year-old woman was in critical condition after attempting self- immolation in front of the city hall in the southern town of Pitesti on 16 October. A crowd of several dozen people witnessed the event. The woman was protesting the failure of the state to provide her family with an apartment. PB[16] ROMANIAN TRADE MINISTER ON GAS PRICE HIKESRadu Berceanu said on 14 October that the government-imposed increase on gas prices is needed to prevent the Romanian National Oil Corporation from sustaining huge losses, Rompres reported. The Trade Ministry announced the previous day that a nearly 5 percent increase in the price of gasoline would go into effect on 15 October. Berceanu said taxes and duties make up 70 percent of the price of a liter of gasoline, which now costs 4,600 lei (about $.50). PB[17] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT SENDS BACK LAW ON JUDICIARYPetar Stoyanov vetoed a proposed law on reforming Bulgaria's judiciary on 15 October, AP reported. Stoyanov said the legislation would give the government too much power over judicial officials and would fail to promote greater efficiency in fighting organized crime and corruption. Stoyanov said he particularly objected to the provision that would allow the justice minister to discipline judiciary officials as well as approve the judiciary's budget. Currently those rights are held by a 25-member Higher Judicial Council. PB[18] BULGARIAN PREMIER UPBEAT ON COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC FUTUREIvan Kostov predicted on 14 October in Sofia that Bulgaria will enjoy economic growth for the next several years, BTA reported. Kostov, speaking at the closing of the Bulgaria Investment Forum, said he forecast that the country's economy will grow by 4.5-5.5 percent annually over the next two years. Kostov said an increase in consumption, already noticeable, along with an increase in the percentage of private business in the Bulgarian economy, are the main factors behind the projected economic growth. Kostov added that far from suffering from the economic crisis in Russia, Bulgaria could benefit by regaining a market share there with such goods as tobacco and foodstuffs. PB[19] CORRECTION:In "RFE/RL Newsline" of 15 October, it was incorrectly reported that Bulgaria had acceded to the International Monetary Fund's Article 4. It had, in fact, acceded to the IMF's Article 8.[C] END NOTE[20] MACEDONIA TO ELECT NEW PARLIAMENTby Patrick MooreMacedonian voters go to the polls on 18 October to elect a 120-seat parliament. The main issues are whether the present coalition, led by the Social Democrats, will continue in office and what the impact of the vote will be on Macedonia's future as a multiethnic state. Voters in this country of just over 2 million people opted for independence in September 1991 under President Kiro Gligorov, who spent long years in Belgrade and would have preferred to have kept the former Yugoslavia in tact had that option been realistic. The last Yugoslav troops left in spring 1992, but real possibilities to enjoy the fruits of independence began to emerge only in the fall of 1995, after Greece agreed to end the blockade it had imposed in 1993 during an acrimonious dispute over Macedonia's official name and national symbols. The first free vote for a legislature in the history of Macedonia took place at the end of 1990 and the second in October 1994. Most of the many political parties were established in 1990 and are rooted in the former League of Communists of Yugoslavia, because communist Macedonia did not have a significant dissident movement. The country is multiethnic, and most parties target their appeal primarily to one ethnic group, particularly to the Macedonians, Albanians, Turks, or Roma. The leading Macedonian parties include the Social Democratic League of Macedonia, which is led by Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski and which has held power in coalition with various smaller parties throughout most of this decade. It currently holds office with the Socialists, whose political platform is very similar to that of the Social Democrats. Their main competitor for the vote of ethnic Macedonians is the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO-DPMNE) of Ljubco Georgievski. His party claims to be the successor of the VMRO that dominated much of Macedonian politics at the beginning of the century and, like its predecessor organization, has focused on appealing to nationalist sentiments since it was founded in 1990. But Georgievski's main appeal now is economic. He charges that the Social Democrats and their allies are holding back economic development through over- regulation and corruption. He told "RFE/RL Newsline" recently that he will do away with both burdens, as well as cut taxes and customs rates. He also pledges to encourage foreign investment and set up three free-trade zones. To underscore this change in approach, Georgievski has formed an electoral coalition with Vasil Tupurkovski's small Democratic Alternative, which is committed to the principles of a civil society. The Democratic Alternative's membership includes persons of many ethnic backgrounds including prominent Albanian intellectuals. Tupurkovski, who first made his name in Belgrade during the last years of the former Yugoslavia, is widely regarded as a possible successor to Gligorov in next year's presidential vote. Some observers suggest that Tupurkovski made his current electoral pact with Georgievski in order to secure the VMRO's backing for Tupurkovski's 1999 presidential bid. But the key to political stability are the ethnic Albanian parties. The Albanians constitute about 23 percent of the total population and live mainly in western Macedonia in areas bordering Albania. The Albanians claim that they are grossly underrepresented in state institutions and demand a greater share of political and economic power. They also want an Albanian-language university and possibly the transformation of the present unitary state into a federal one. Many Macedonians, however, suspect that such claims are really a prelude to a demand for full independence. Consequently, mutual mistrust is widespread, ethnic tension frequently high, and political and social life highly polarized. The more moderate major Albanian political group is the Party for Democratic Prosperity (PPD), which participates in Crvenkovski's coalition government. Georgievski charges that the PPD has become part of the corrupt establishment. The PPD's hard-line rival is the Democratic Party of the Albanians (PDSH). Arben Xhaferi, leader of the PDSH, frequently uses militant rhetoric but at other times adopts a conciliatory tone. Few observers in Skopje are willing to predict what course he might take after the election. Polls suggest that no party has a clear majority among either main ethnic group and that as much as 40 percent of the electorate remains undecided. This will be the first election according to rules that allow for only 85 of the 120 seats (instead of all 120, as was previously the case) to be elected on the majority principle. The remaining 35 will be selected by proportional representation following a concession by the government to the smaller parties. The PPD and PDSH have formed an electoral pact to field joint candidates in some districts to ensure that competition between them does not lead to the election of a non-Albanian. A spokesman for Xhaferi told "RFE/RL Newsline," however, that the pact will expire after election day and has no bearing on future coalition talks. Regardless of the composition of the new government, the ruling parties will face the daunting tasks of overcoming high unemployment and attracting foreign investment. Many observers have long noted that prosperity is the key to peace and stability in the Balkans- -demagogues and war came to the former Yugoslavia only after a decade of economic decline. The key challenge to the next government will be to boost Macedonia's standard of living so that all its citizens can feel they have a stake in both that state and its future. 16-10-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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