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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 155, 98-08-14Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 155, 14 August 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] IRAN OFFERS TO MEDIATE KARABAKH CONFLICTDuring talks in Baku on 12 August, Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev and Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi affirmed their mutual commitment to expand bilateral cooperation, specifically in the sphere of transporting energy resources and in supplying electricity to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan, Interfax reported. But they failed to make substantive progress toward resolving their differences over determining the legal status of the Caspian or to reach agreement on expanded Iranian participation in the exploitation of Azerbaijan's Caspian oil. Kharrazi advocated direct talks between Baku and Yerevan on resolving the Karabakh conflict, saying that Iran is prepared to mediate such talks, ANS-Press reported. LF[02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION ACCEPTS RESTRICTIONS ON BAKU RALLYAzerbaijani opposition parties on 13 August met to discuss, and finally agreed to, the Baku city authorities' offer to make available a motor- racing stadium on the outskirts of Baku for a mass rally on 15 August. Riot police held practice maneuvers at that stadium last week, according to RFE/RL's Baku bureau. Also on 13 August, the Democratic Congress, which unites a number of opposition parties, issued a statement rejecting claims made the previous day by Interior Minister Ramil Usubov that opposition activists intend to resort to violence during the planned rally, Turan reported. LF[03] PASTUKHOV CALLS FOR SHEVARDNADZE-ARDZINBA MEETINGSpeaking at a press conference in Moscow on 13 August, Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastukhov criticized what he termed the apparent unwillingness of either Georgia or Abkhazia to make an effort to resolve the Abkhaz conflict and expedite the repatriation of ethnic Georgian displaced persons, Interfax reported. Pastukhov said that "two significant documents prepared with Russia's help" remain unsigned, and he suggested that a meeting between Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and his Abkhaz counterpart, Vladislav Ardzinba, might lead to the signing of an agreement on preventing further armed clashes and on repatriating the fugitives. Some Georgian displaced persons have spontaneously established contact with the Abkhaz authorities, who have granted them permission to return on condition that they never take up arms against the Abkhaz, Caucasus Press reported on 14 August. LF[04] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SAY ECONOMIC STABILITY 'TOP PRIORITY'In an interview with "Noviye izvestiya" on 14 August, Robert Kocharian said Armenia's economic upswing is largely the result of innovations in the tax system and budget that he had introduced in his capacity as former premier in the spring of 1997. "We have moved from the concept of survival to that of active development," he remarked. A further key factor, Kocharian said, is the increased willingness of diaspora Armenians to invest in the country's economy. Kocharian said he believes that the ongoing process of determining domestic and foreign policy priorities in all the Transcaucasus states and Caucasus republics militates against regional accord at present. He pointed out that the original venue for the September conference on the TRACECA project to which his Azerbaijani counterpart, Aliev, has invited him was Tbilisi but that Aliev himself had insisted it be moved to Baku. LF[05] ARMENIA'S ASSYRIANS STRUGGLE TO PRESERVE IDENTITYSpeaking at a press conference on 12 August, a spokeswoman for the Assyrian community greeted the introduction of a class with Aramaic-language instruction in one of Yerevan's schools. But at the same time, she called for the reinstatement of an Armenian-Assyrian teacher fired from a school in one of three predominantly Assyrian-populated villages near the capital, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The spokeswoman said that the Assyrian community has shrunk in recent years from 9,000 to approximately 4, 000, as many of its members have been forced to emigrate for economic reasons. She stressed that "the Armenian state does everything for us not to leave the country." LF[06] OPINIONS DIFFER OVER TALIBAN 'THREAT'Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said in Astana on 13 August that he is concerned about events in Afghanistan, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. Nazarbayev said Kazakh troops are already deployed in Tajikistan and warned Afghanistan's Taliban movement not to "overstep the boundaries" of its own country. Nazarbayev said that he is against "the use of force" and added that Kazakhstan wants to see a stable Afghanistan and will seek "normal relations" with that country once the war is over. He also said a stable Afghanistan offered the possibility to lay oil and gas pipelines through that country. In the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, First Deputy Defense Minister Major-General Ismail Isakov said the same day he does not believe the Taliban will cross CIS borders. "Breaching the border of even one Central Asian state would mean declaring war on all countries in the region, [which are] tied by the [CIS] collective security treaty," he said. BP[07] KAZAKHSTAN WORRIED ABOUT ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISMITAR-TASS on 14 August reported that officials in Kazakhstan are worried about "foreign missionaries" propagandizing the teachings of radical fundamentalist Islam. According to news agency, criminal proceedings have been brought against missionaries from Egypt, Sudan, and Jordan. A Turkish citizen has been discovered teaching Wahhabism in the southern Kazakh city of Shambyl, and an Uzbek citizen was recently deported for violating the country's law on freedom of worship and religious associations. The Uzbek citizen was reportedly preaching "radical Islamic fundamentalism" in the town of Kyzylorda, arranging polygamous marriages, and encouraging "young religious fanatics" to follow him "blindly." BP[08] IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN TURKMENISTANKamal Kharrazi arrived in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, on 13 August, ITAR- TASS reported. At talks with President Saparmurat Niyazov on the status of the Caspian Sea, the two agreed to form a working group that will develop a plan on the legal framework for dividing the Caspian among the littoral states and present that plan to the presidents of Iran and Turkmenistan by 1 September. There was no progress on Iran's proposal to purchase Turkmen natural gas. Kharrazi offered $32 per 1,000 cubic meters, while Niyazov reminded him that Russia's offer of $36 per 1,000 cubic meters had already been turned down. Kharrazi spoke out against Afghanistan's Taliban movement at a press conference, but there are no reports indicating that Turkmen officials commented on the issue. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] RUGOVA NAMES NEGOTIATING TEAM...Kosovar shadow- state Ibrahim Rugova said in Prishtina on 13 August that he has appointed a negotiating team for talks with the Serbian authorities. The new body represents Rugova's Democratic League of Kosova, the Christian Democrats, and the Social Democrats. It consists of Fehmi Agani, Fatmir Sadiu, Edita Tahiri, Tadei Radiqi and Iliaz Kurtesi. Adem Demaci and Mehmet Hajrizi, who are close to the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), declined Rugova's invitation to join. Unidentified senior Western diplomats told Reuters that the seriousness of the crisis made it imperative for the international community and Rugova to put together a negotiating team even without representatives of the UCK. One diplomat added that he hopes the team will achieve "early success [that] will pull in the doubting Thomases, " by which he presumably meant the UCK. But on 14 August, Rugova said that the ongoing Serbian offensive must stop before talks can begin. PM[10] ...BUT UCK REJECTS ITThe UCK issued a statement to the Kosovar and Albanian media on 13 August announcing its forces are making a "tactical withdrawal" in response to the Serbian offensive. The text also made clear that Rugova's team does not speak for the guerrillas. Instead, the UCK's announcement said that the guerrillas have asked Adem Demaci to be their chief representative and to resign his other positions in Kosova's political arena. The text added that the UCK's other political representatives are Xhavit Haliti, Bardhyl Mahmuti, Hashim Taqi, Faton Mehmetaj, Sokol Bashota, and press spokesman Jakup Krasniqi. Veton Surroi, who is Kosova's best-known journalist and a top aide to Rugova, told the BBC on 14 August that Rugova's team is a "lame duck" because it does not include the UCK and because no serious talks are possible as long as the Serbian offensive continues. PM[11] SERBIA WELCOMES RUGOVA'S ANNOUNCEMENTThe governments of the U.S., the U.K., France, Austria, Russia, and Serbia hailed Rugova's announcement on 13 August, Western news agencies reported from Prishtina. U.S. Ambassador to Macedonia Christopher Hill, who is also Washington's chief envoy in the Kosova crisis, said that foreign diplomats and Rugova's team will meet on 14 August to draft a negotiating platform, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic praised Rugova's decision to appoint negotiators as a "smart move." Sainovic also told state television in Belgrade that the authorities "always differentiated between citizens of Albanian [ethnic origin] and bandit-terrorist groups." PM[12] NATO OFFICIALS COMPLAIN OF RUSSIAN 'VETO'Unnamed U.S. and NATO officials say that Russian Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov is blocking any future NATO decision to intervene in the Kosova crisis by threatening to veto an authorization for such a move in the UN Security Council, the "International Herald Tribune" reported on 14 August. The newspaper noted that "senior Clinton administration officials, speaking privately, complained bitterly this week that Mr. Primakov had secretly told [Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic that he need not worry about the risk of a NATO intervention without a Security Council resolution. Russia has vowed to veto any such UN resolution." It also quoted a senior U.S. official as saying this week that "right now, we've got a situation in which Western policy on a major issue is being run by Yevgenii Primakov." PM[13] ALBANIA CONDEMNS SERBIAN OFFENSIVEThe Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 13 August saying that continuing Serbian attacks on Kosovar settlements are "intolerable." The statement said that "every delay in ending the Kosova conflict increases the magnitude of the bloodshed and the humanitarian catastrophe there, as well as the danger of its spreading to the rest of the region." Meanwhile, some 600 Kosovar refugees crossed into Albania near Tropoja the same day. A representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees told Reuters that only some 250 are civilians and that the rest are UCK fighters who "escorted" them. An Interior Ministry spokesman said in Tirana that Albanian helicopters brought 12 wounded Kosovars from Tropoja to the capital for treatment. He added that Serbian troops fired artillery shells 700 meters into Albania near Tropoja on 12 August and that a military observation tower at Padesh came under small arms fire the following day. FS[14] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT SENDS BACK SECRET SERVICE LAWRexhep Meidani on 13 August returned to the parliament the controversial draft law on the National Information Service (SHIK, see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 August 1998). He asked that the legislators change the text to further limit the powers of the secret service. An article that refers to "the obligation of the managers of central or local [government] institutions [as well as of] legal, state, or private entities to give information to SHIK officers" has been protested by human rights groups, the press, and the some members of the public. Meidani proposed instead that SHIK members should simply have the "right" to talk to public officials and private businessmen. He argued that the existing formulation leaves "room for abuse...to the detriment of the freedoms and rights of citizen." FS[15] WERE EGYPTIANS ARRESTED IN TIRANA INVOLVED IN LUXOR MASSACRE?An unidentified source in Albania's Interior Ministry told Reuters on 13 August that three Egyptian Islamists arrested in Tirana in late June were suspects in the November 1997 massacre of tourists in Luxor, in which 62 people were killed. Egypt's largest militant group, al-Gama'a al-Islamiya, took responsibility for the massacre. Close cooperation between SHIK and the CIA led to the arrests. The source could not confirm a report from the "International Herald Tribune" the previous day that the three men and a fourth Islamist arrested in Tirana in July have ties to the Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 August 1998) . FS[16] TENSIONS MOUNT AMONG BOSNIAN SERBSRepublika Srpska police have arrested some 33 persons since the assassination on 8 August of Srdjan Knezevic, a police official loyal to President Biljana Plavsic (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 August 1998), AP reported on 13 August. UN police spokesmen said that the wave of arrests reflects a "showdown" between supporters of Plavsic and those loyal to her hard-line predecessor, Radovan Karadzic. The spokesmen added that the UN police are seeking access to the arrested persons and can confirm only 14 arrests. Pale- based Karadzic loyalists have demanded the replacement of Interior Minister Milovan Stankovic, whom the hard- liners say has launched "a reign of terror against innocent people." Stankovic has charged the Pale leadership headed by Momcilo Krajisnik with ordering the assassination. The tensions come in the run-up to the Bosnian general elections slated for 12-13 September. PM[17] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT ON HUNGARIAN UNIVERSITYEmil Constantinescu said in Cluj on 13 August that he is backing "multiculturalism" for universities in Romania and that the setting up of a state university in the Hungarian language is a "Romanian internal problem" that "cannot be the object of transactions" with other states. He added that the "multicultural model" of the Cluj university is one he is attempting to persuade Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma to introduce at the Cernivici [Cernauti] university for the benefit of Romanian students. In reply to a question by a journalist concerning Hungarian suggestions that double citizenship be granted to ethnic Hungarians abroad to ensure links after Hungary joins the EU, Constantinescu said that the "time for responding" has not yet come but that consideration will have to be given to "our interest in Romanians in neighboring countries who face difficult conditions." MS[18] MOLDOVAN ECOLOGISTS THREATEN TO BLOCK NUCLEAR WASTE TRANSITThe Ecologist Movement on 13 August said it may block the transit of nuclear waste from Bulgarian's Kozloduy reactor to Russia, Infotag reported, quoting Ioan Bobina, the director of the movement's information center. One day earlier, the government officially approved the transit, for which Bulgaria is to pay $50 million and another $5 million as compensation in the event of an accident. Deputy Prime Minister Valentin Dolganiuc of the Democratic Convention of Moldova voted against that decision. Nicolae Andronic, a deputy premier representing the For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc, said it is wrong to call the transit cargo "nuclear waste" because it is in fact processed fuel that, he claimed, does not pose any threat to the population's health. Two Moldovan specialists will oversee the loading of the fuel in Bulgaria. MS[19] BULGARIA DISMISSES GREEK FEARS ABOUT KOZLODUYKonstantin Shushulov, chairman of the National Electricity Company Board, and Georgi Kashciev, head of the government Committee for Peaceful Use of Atomic Energy, on 13 August dismissed fears in neighboring Greece that the Kozloduy nuclear reactor poses a threat, AP reported. Shushulov said that the plant "is by no means at a lower safety level than other [such facilities] in Europe." Both officials were responding to a report in the Greek daily "Kathimerini" saying the EU has assured Greece it will keep exerting pressure on Bulgaria to close four of Kozloduy's six reactors that are considered unsafe. MS[C] END NOTE[20] THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARKby Paul GobleThe most remarkable feature of the current Russian economic crisis is one that most commentaries have overlooked: namely, that the Russian collapse has not spread to the other post-Soviet states. Even five years ago, most of the former Soviet republics were still sufficiently integrated that difficulties in the largest of them would inevitably have a large and immediate impact on all the others. Now that has changed. More and more post-Soviet countries have succeeded in diversifying their trading partners so that problems in Russia will not be the determining factor in their development. That is not to say that the problems in Moscow will not have an impact. Rather, the ways in which these Russian problems will affect the non- Russian countries are very different and more indirect than many are now assuming. First, some but by no means all of the post-Soviet states remain sufficiently integrated with the Russian economy that problems in Moscow will have precisely the kind of impact that some are assuming will happen across the region. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, for example, will be under enormous pressure to devalue their national currencies if the Russian ruble continues to fall. Second, many of the post-Soviet states have not yet completed the reform of their economic and legal systems that would make them able to withstand negative trends abroad. These countries--which are in the majority--thus suffer from many of the same kind of problems that Russia does and for the same reasons. Without reforms, they cannot attract the kind of investment that will help power their future development. Indeed, the exceptions to this general pattern--Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania--prove the rule. The three Baltic countries rapidly liberalized their economies and now enjoy some of the highest rates of Western investment and economic growth anywhere in the region. Those that have failed to reform their economies, on the other hand, are in increasing difficulty. But the primary cause of their problems is the absence of reform rather than difficulties in the Russian marketplace. Third, all of these countries are profoundly affected by the attitudes of Western investors. Because the Russian market is the best-known, many in the West have concluded that all post-Soviet states and indeed all emerging markets are in the same situation. That is absolutely wrong. In the most recent quarter for which economic statistics are available, virtually all the post- Soviet states did better than Russia on virtually every measure of economic development, relative to the size of their markets. But while those judgments are incorrect, they have an impact on the economies of the other countries in the region, an impact that some analysts in both Moscow and the West will undoubtedly suggest shows just how "integrated" the region remains. To a large extent, this misreading of the economic situation in the post- Soviet states reflects a larger misunderstanding of the situation there. Nearly seven years after the Soviet Union collapsed, all too many in the West continue to refer to the countries there as "new independent states" and to think about the region as a single whole rather than as 12 new countries and the three restored Baltic States. Such observers thus have missed the broad diversification over the last few years in a region dominated until a decade ago by a single center. If the Russian economic crisis does in the end have an impact across all these countries, it is far more likely to be the result of Western misperceptions than the product of integration left over from Soviet times. 14-08-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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