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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 51, 98-03-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 51, 16 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIANS VOTE FOR NEW PRESIDENTMost of the 2.2 million eligible voters are expected to go to the polls on 16 March to choose a replacement for former Armenian President Levon Ter- Petrossyan, who recently resigned . None of the 12 candidates is expected to receive the 50 percent of the vote needed for election, and a runoff is expected on 30 March between two of the three front-runners: Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharian, former Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchyan, and former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian. Observing the elections are 180 OSCE monitors and a variety of officials from the Council of Europe, the CIS, and Russia (see also "End Note" below). PG[02] ABKHAZ VOTING SPARKS VIOLENCELocal elections in Abkhazia led to violence on 14 March, ITAR-TASS reported. Several people were killed and many more wounded in clashes between ethnic Abkhazians who wanted the poll to go ahead and ethnic Georgians who opposed the vote. Both Russia and Georgia had denounced the elections as likely to contribute to instability. The previous day, the UN Security Council President Abdoulie Momodou Sallah of Gambia released a statement declaring the vote "illegitimate." PG[03] AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS TO YELTSIN OVER ARMS TO ARMENIAAzerbaijani President Heidar Aliev sent a letter to Russian President Boris Yeltsin last week expressing Baku's serious concern about reports that Moscow will supply Armenia with various new weapons systems, including the S-300 missile, ITAR-TASS reported on 14 March. In a related development, the Azerbaijani Security Council has urged Aliev not to attend the CIS summit in Moscow on 19-20 March. PG[04] GEORGIA, TURKEY AGREE ON BAKU-CEYHAN PIPELINEDuring a visit to Tbilisi on 13-14 March, Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz signed accords with President Eduard Shevardnadze and other Georgian officials calling for the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline to carry Caspian petroleum to the West, ITAR-TASS reported. The two sides also agreed to build power lines and rail roads between their countries, and Turkey committed itself to providing assistance to upgrade Georgian roads. PG[05] SHEVARDNADZE TO ATTEND MOSCOW SUMMITGeorgian President Eduard Shevardnadze announced on 16 March that he has decided to go to Moscow to attend the summit of CIS presidents on 19-20 March, an RFE/RL correspondent in Tbilisi reported. The Azerbaijani Security Council recently recommended that President Heidar Aliev skip the summit, and Shevardnadze said most members on the Georgian Security Council had advised him to do the same. However, he said he decided to attend the summit "out of respect for my colleagues." Two days of "intensive consultations" between Russian, Georgian, and Azerbaijani officials preceded Shevardnadze's announcement. LB[06] VIOLENCE BREAKS OUT IN CENTRAL TAJIKISTANThree members of the security forces were seriously wounded in a violent incident in central Tajikistan on 14 March, RFE/RL correspondents and ITAR- TASS reported. A group of 200 fighters loyal to Mullo Abdullo, who supports the Tajik opposition, attacked the Ali-Galabon check point, beating government soldiers and taking their weapons. Earlier that week, on 9 March, the local headquarters of the Interior Ministry came under fire in Rogun. Said Abdullo Nuri, chairman of the National Reconciliation Commission, and Amirkul Azimov, secretary of the Security Council, are scheduled to visit the area on 16 March. BP[07] TAJIK PRISONERS APPEAL FOR PRESIDENTIAL PARDONSix men who were sentenced to death by a Tajik court last week have appealed to President Imomali Rakhmonov to pardon them (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 March 1998), RFE/RL correspondents reported. The six were found guilty of staging the attempted assassination of Rakhmonov in Khujand in April 1997. The lawyer of 47-year-old Abdulkhafiz Abdullayev, who allegedly masterminded the attempt, said her client has asked for the "humanism and compassion of the head of state for a seriously ill man," ITAR-TASS reported on 14 March. Abdullayev is terminally ill and more than twice the age of those convicted with him. First Deputy Chairman of the Tajik Supreme Court Shukhrat Mustafakulov called the verdict "severe" but "just." BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[08] SERBIAN POLICE BLOCK WOMEN'S MARCH IN KOSOVORiot police blocked a peaceful march by Kosovar women on 16 March from Pristina to the Drenica region, where the recent crackdown left more than 80 Albanians dead. Several tens of thousands of Kosovars staged peaceful marches throughout Kosovo on 15 March, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Pristina. The Democratic League of Kosovo, which is the leading Kosovar political organization, elected a new leadership and issued a statement calling for "urgent intervention" by the U.S. and EU to end "terror against the Albanian population." Memorial masses for the Muslim Albanians killed in the crackdown took place in all Roman Catholic churches in Kosovo. PM[09] U.S. TO FUND KOSOVO WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONSecretary of State Madeleine Albright announced on 13 March that Washington will contribute $1 million to support investigations by the Hague-based war crimes tribunal into Serbia's recent crackdown. The court has already launched an investigation into the affair. PM[10] ALBANIAN PREMIER BACKS RUGOVA ON TALKSA spokesman for Fatos Nano said on 15 March that the Kosovo Albanian leadership was right to reject two recent invitations by the Serbian government to participate in talks to which Belgrade had attached conditions (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 March 1998). Nano called the Serbian offer "ridiculous," and he justified the Kosovars' demand for international mediation in their relations with Belgrade. Addressing his remarks to Kosovo Albanians, he said that "now, more than ever, Albanians should show self-restraint and calm when faced with provocations that aim to depict the Albanians as terrorists and extremists." FS[11] ALBANIA WANTS STRONGER NATO INVOLVEMENTForeign Minister Paskal Milo said on 14 March that Tirana is ready to support a possible NATO deployment in the region by providing airport facilities. He added that Albania is considering asking the U.S. to send a naval task force to the Adriatic. Last week, Albania asked NATO to deploy troops on its border with Kosovo, which the alliance refused to do (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 March 1998). On 12 March, Foreign Minister Paskal Milo dismissed allegations by the Yugoslav Foreign Ministry that its embassy in Tirana is under threat of terrorist attacks. Albanian officials nonetheless tightened security around the embassy. FS[12] KINKEL OFFERS CARROTS TO MILOSEVICGerman Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel told "Der Spiegel" of 16 March that his goal regarding Kosovo is to obtain the withdrawal of the Serbian "special police from Kosovo and stop the operations against the Albanian civilian population." When he and his French counterpart Hubert Vedrine arrive in Belgrade later this week, Kinkel added, "we will propose things...to help" Serbia return to European institutions in return for cooperation in Kosovo. He said the EU could help Yugoslavia "with access to international financial institutions, the IMF, or the World Bank." Kinkel said he favors extending the mandate of UN peacekeepers in Macedonia and setting up a small border patrol to prevent arms-running from Albania to Kosovo. He added, however, that it is "unnecessary" to send more troops to the region and that Russia and China would not allow it, anyway. PM[13] GLIGOROV WANTS U.S. TROOPSMacedonian President Kiro Gligorov said in Skopje on 14 March that maintaining a U.S. military presence in Macedonia would be the best way to preserve security there. He suggested that the UN peacekeepers, which include a U.S. contingent, be replaced by a purely U.S. force when the UN's mandate runs out on 31 August. After that date, Gligorov said, "the best solution would be the arrival of American troops, regardless of how many they are." A solely U.S. force would not have the national rivalries or complex command structure inherent in a multinational operation, he argued. Gligorov added that such a force would also "do away with the possibility that these troops might try to influence" Macedonia's internal affairs. PM[14] BRCKO DECISION PUT OFF AGAIN...U.S. envoy Roberts Owen, the chief international administrator in the disputed northern Bosnian town of Brcko, announced on 15 March in Sarajevo that he will not decide on the town's future until some point between the Bosnian general elections in September and the beginning of 1999. He said that the delay will give the new Bosnian Serb leadership an opportunity to move ahead with promised reforms. This is the third time that the international community has postponed a decision on Brcko's status, which was the one territorial issue not settled by the Dayton agreement. Bosnian Serbs say they need to keep control of Brcko because it connects the eastern and western halves of the Republika Srpska. The Muslims and Croats, who constituted the pre-war majority of the population, argue that failure to return Brcko to them is tantamount to justifying ethnic cleansing. PM[15] ...AMID MIXED REACTIONSPresident Ejup Ganic of the mainly Muslim and Croatian federation blasted Owen's announcement, saying that "justice delayed is justice denied." Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic and Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said Owen's decision not to take Brcko from the Serbs reflects the confidence that the international community has in the Plavsic-Dodik leadership. However, hard-line Bosnian Serb leader Momcilo Krajisnik called on Plavsic and Dodik to resign. He reminded them that they have recently said on several occasions that Dodik's government will fall unless Brcko is assigned to the Serbs. PM[16] CARDINAL BLASTS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYCardinal Vinko Puljic said in Serb-held Banja Luka on 14 March that the UN and the great powers "did nothing" to prevent aggression by the Yugoslav Army and Serbian paramilitaries against Croatia in 1991 and Bosnia in 1992. Puljic added that the wartime international arms embargo served mainly to prevent the Croats and Muslims from defending themselves. The cardinal said that European civilization is doomed if it allows the strong to ride roughshod over the weak. PM[17] DIENSTBIER NAMED UN RIGHTS ENVOYUN officials in Geneva on 13 March announced the appointment of former Czechoslovak Foreign Minister Jiri Dienstbier to investigate human rights abuses in the former Yugoslavia. He succeeds Elisabeth Rehn of Finland, who resigned in January to become UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special representative for Bosnia. PM[18] CROATIAN RAIL WORKERS STAGE WARNING STRIKERailway workers held a half-hour warning strike throughout Croatia on 13 March to underscore demands for wage hikes. Management claims it does not have the money to pay the 20 percent wage increase the unions demand. Management also wants to sack 6,000 workers in what it calls an effort to cut losses. The strike is the latest in a series of worker protests to hit Croatia since the beginning of the year, when a value-added-tax came into effect. PM[19] ALBANIAN PARLIAMENT SACKS TOP JUDGEThe parliament voted in a closed session on 14 March to sack Judge Rustem Gjata, the head of the Constitutional Court, for cooperation with the communist-era secret service, "Shekulli" reported. The parliament's lustration commission had demanded the dismissal of Gjata, who switched his allegiance to the Democratic Party (PD) after the fall of communism. The Democrats did not participate in the 14 March session on the grounds that the sacking is politically motivated. Democratic leader Tritan Shehu said the report submitted by the lustration commission was "not convincing." FS[20] ROMANIAN CABINET APPROVES BILL ON MINISTERIAL RESPONSIBILITYThe government on 13 March approved a draft law on ministerial responsibility, Romanian media reported. The law, which is to be submitted to the parliament, is part of a package of laws aimed at bringing Romanian legislation into line with that of the EU. The draft says the parliamentary immunity of ministers can be lifted with a simple majority, instead of the two-thirds majority required for other members of the legislature. In those cases where ministers are not members of the parliament, a special commission set up by the country's president will decided whether legal proceedings can be launched against them. MS[21] FIST-FIGHTS IN CLUJ CHURCHFist-fights broke out between Uniates (Roman Catholics of the Eastern Rite) and Romanian Orthodox believers in a church in the Transylvanian city of Cluj on 13 March, an RFE/RL correspondent there reported. A court of justice had recently ruled that the church, which had belonged to the Uniates before they were banned by the communist regime in 1948, must be returned to them. The Orthodox oppose the ruling and are, in general, against returning confiscated Uniate churches and properties to their original owners. The local Orthodox bishop and Patriarch Teoctist said they were "saddened" by the "unjust" decision of the court but will no longer oppose it. MS[22] NATIONAL ROMANIAN PARTY ESTABLISHEDThe Agrarian Democratic Party (PDAR) and the New Romania Party merged on 14 March to form the National Romanian Party (PNR), RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The Christian Liberal Party decided against becoming a member of the union, but eight of its local organizations nonetheless opted to join. Former PDAR chairman Mihai Berca was elected chairman of the PNR, while Ovidiu Traznea, the former chairman of the New Romania Party, is PNR honorary chairman. Virgil Magureanu, the former director of the Intelligence Service, is secretary-general of the party. MS[23] MOLDOVAN ELECTION POLLAn opinion poll conducted by the Opinia research institute suggests that of the 15 parties running in the 22 March parliamentary elections, only five will pass the 4 percent threshold for parliamentary representation, Infotag and BASA-press reported on 13 March. The Party of Moldovan Communists gained 24 percent support, followed by the Right Democratic Convention of Moldova (23 percent) and the Romanian Party of Democratic Forces (nearly 18 percent). The pro- presidential For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc is backed by some 12 percent and the Democratic Agrarian Party of Moldova, which won the 1994 elections, by 9.3 percent. MS[24] CANDIDATES QUIT MOLDOVAN ELECTORAL LISTSixteen candidates on the lists of the Party of Social Economic Justice announced on 13 March that they will not be running, Infotag and BASA-press reported. They have accused party leader Maricica Levitschi of attempting to bribe the electorate, saying that, among other things, she has distributed to voters condoms and birth control pills received as foreign aid to Moldova. MS[25] ZHIVKOV NAMES CONDITION FOR REJOINING FORMER PARTYFormer communist dictator Todor Zhivkov says he will agree to join the Socialist Party only if he is rehabilitated by his former colleagues, whom he accused of "treason". Last week, Zhivkov's grand-daughter Evgenia Zhivkova denied reports that her grand-father, who is 86, has rejoined the Socialist Party. Zhivkov told a meeting of party members in a Sofia suburb on 15 March that he does not "want to join through the back door" and that the next Socialist Party congress must first rehabilitate him, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported. Zhivkov was expelled from the party in 1990. MS[C] END NOTE[26] A NEW ELECTION PARADIGMby Liz FullerIt is possible to identify four factors that--either singly or combined-- have influenced voting patterns in elections in the North Caucasus and Transcaucasus over the past few years. None, however, is relevant to the Armenian presidential elections that are taking place on 16 March. The first factor is the fear of jeopardizing the status quo when fragile political stability has been restored following a period of political chaos, war, and/or economic collapse. That factor played a role in Eduard Shevardnadze's election as Georgian president in November 1995 and in the emergence of his Union of Citizens of Georgia as the largest faction in the parliamentary elections held at the same time. It also contributed to the recent re-election of Ruslan Aushev as president of Ingushetia. The second, related factor is a desire on the part of individual voters to play safe. Particularly among older voters, there is a preference to vote for that candidate who is perceived as certain to win. This, too, contributed to Eduard Shevardnadze's 1995 presidential election victory and to the re-election in November 1995 of Heidar Aliev as president of Azerbaijan. It may also have contributed to Aslan Maskhadov's election as Chechen president in January 1997 insofar as Moscow made clear that Maskhadov, who together with former Russian Security Council secretary Aleksandr Lebed had signed the agreement ending hostilities between Chechnya and Russia, was its preferred negotiating partner. The third factor is a protest vote against a status quo perceived as no longer tolerable. Voting against a given individual and the policies he stands for explains the meteoric rise in popularity of opposition candidate Vazgen Manukian during the final weeks of the 1996 Armenian presidential election campaign. It also explains why incumbent Akhsarbek Galazov, who tried to distract the North Ossetian electorate's attention from the repercussions of economic collapse by organizing bombastic and elaborate Soviet-style propaganda-cultural galas, lost the January 1998 presidential race to a rival former Soviet party apparatchik, Aleksandr Dzasokhov. The fourth factor is the practice of restricting or prohibiting the participation of various parties or candidates. For example, the alliance between the suspended Dashnak Party and the Union for Constitutional Rights was refused registration for the July 1995 Armenian parliamentary elections, and the Musavat party was similarly prohibited from registering candidates for seats to be contested under the proportional system in the November 1995 Azerbaijani parliamentary elections. The pre-term Armenian presidential elections differ from earlier regional election scenarios insofar as on the eve of the poll it was impossible to predict with any degree of certainty which of the main candidates would win. Moreover, factors other than those listed above were in play: nostalgia and the phenomenon of personality or charisma. Karen Demirchian, who was Armenian Communist Party first secretary from 1974 to 1988, appeared set to benefit from the former, and Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharian and National Democratic Union chairman Vazgen Manukian from the latter. It also seemed possible that Kocharian would profit from a widespread desire for national consolidation, which played a key role in Zviad Gamsakhurdia's election as Georgian president in May 1991. Whether nostalgia, the phenomenon of personality, and/or the desire for national consolidation will impact on the next Armenian parliamentary elections or whether voters will return to traditional voting patterns is impossible to predict at this point. 16-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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