 |
Compact version |
|
 |
        |
|
 |
||
|
Sunday, 22 December 2024
|
||
 |
 |
|
|
|
RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 42, 98-03-03Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 42, 3 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] RUSSIA MAY WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM GEORGIARussian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev told journalists on 2 March that Russia is ready to consider withdrawing its troops from Georgia if there is a consensus that its military bases there are no longer needed, Russian agencies reported. Since 1993, the Georgian opposition has opposed Russia's military presence in Georgia. Last week, Tbilisi requested that Sergeev postpone his visit scheduled for 27-28 February until after the19-20 March CIS summit. A new agreement on the status of the three Russian military bases in Georgia was to have been signed during that visit. LF[02] ARMENIAN PREMIER PLEDGES ELECTION TRANSPARENCYRobert Kocharyan has once again pledged that the Armenian authorities will take all possible measures to ensure that the 16 March presidential poll is free and fair, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Kocharyan made that pledge at meetings with U.S. Assistant Under Secretary of State Stephen Coffey in Yerevan on 1 March and with the heads of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's election monitoring mission staff the following day. Kocharyan also said he has reached agreement with rival candidate Vazgen Manukyan that candidates' proxies will be empowered to monitor voting by military personnel. Interior and National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisyan said on 2 March that police will strictly abide by the regulation prohibiting their presence at electoral precincts. By the 1 March deadline, 12 candidates had submitted to the Central Electoral Commission the documentation and minimum 25,000 signatures necessary to run in the election, Noyan Tapan reported. LF[03] AZERBAIJANI PROSECUTOR-GENERAL ON EXTRADITIONS FROM RUSSIAIn an interview published in "Trud" on 28 February, Azerbaijani Prosecutor- GeneralEldar Hasanov argued that the extradition from Russia of a number of prominent political figures to stand trial on charges of terrorism or treason is in accordance with a Russian-Azerbaijani agreement concluded in 1992 and the subsequent Minsk Convention signed by CIS states. Hasanov rejected Russian press allegations that Azerbaijanis are extradited to Baku because of their political beliefs. He also denied that he has ever received a request from President Heidar Aliev to demand the extradition of one of Aliev's political opponents. But a recent bulletin released by the Human Rights Center of Azerbaijan cites several cases in which Azerbaijani political refugees in Ukraine have been detained and mistreated before their extradition to Azerbaijan, where they were tried and sentenced. LF[04] TURKEY, CASPIAN LITTORAL STATES DISCUSS EXPORT PIPELINEMeeting in Istanbul on 1-2 March, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan expressed varying degrees of support for the construction of the Baku-Ceyhan export pipeline for Caspian oil. They failed, however, to make a definite commitment to that project. At the same time, they stressed they are committed to multiple oil and gas pipelines in order to transport Caspian hydrocarbon resources to the West. Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem suggested that Russian and U.S. representatives be invited to future meetings to discuss the Baku-Ceyhan project, the "Turkish Daily News" reported on 2 March. Russian Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov was not invited to the Istanbul talks. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman told Caucasus Press on 2 March that the proposed northern pipeline from Baku to Novorossiisk is "more rational and economical" than the Baku-Ceyhan option. LF[05] GEORGIAN PIPELINE AGREEMENT SIGNEDChevron Overseas, Britain's Caspian Trans Company, and the Georgian state oil company signed an agreement in Tbilisi on 2 March on the reconstruction of two sections of the export pipeline to transport Azerbaijani Caspian oil to Georgia's Black Sea coast. Work on the Khashuri-Batumi section will begin within four months, and that section will be linked to the Ali- Bayramli- Khashuri pipeline by mid-1999. The annual throughput capacity of the Ali- Bayramli-Batumi pipeline will be 7.5-8 million metric tons, according to Chevron President Richard Matzke. The pipeline will transport not only Azerbaijani crude but some Kazakh oil from the Tengiz field that Chevron is developing together with Mobil and Kazakh and Russian oil companies. More than 1 million metric tons of Tengiz oil have been exported by tanker to Baku and then by rail through Georgia since 1997. LF[06] KYRGYZSTAN'S INDEPENDENT MEDIA COMPLAINS OF DISCRIMINATIONThe Kyrgyz Association of Independent Electronic Mass Media has sent a letter to the cabinet complaining of "discriminatory actions of government structures against non-government mass media." RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, who has obtained a copy of the letter, said the association singles out the difficulties experienced by Mezon TV in acquiring a license to broadcast in 1997, the shutdown of Radio Almaz on 23 February, and the temporary closure of the television and radio station VOSST one week earlier. The association notes a "serious violation of Article 8 of the law on mass media" in the case of both Radio Almaz and VOSST, whose closure was ordered by the National Agency on Communications. Under the mass media law, a broadcasting station can be closed down only in accordance with a decision by the station's management or the courts. BP[07] KAZAKH PRESIDENT MEETS WITH FOREIGN INVESTORSNursultan Nazarbayev, meeting with foreign investors and government officials in Almaty on 2 March, said the cabinet will continue to give "support and help...necessary [for foreign investors] to work successfully" in Kazakhstan, ITAR-TASS and Reuters reported. However, Nazarbayev warned investors they are subject to Kazakh laws on taxation and should not over- report costs to keep down reported profits. After listening to reports by foreign investors, Nazarbayev heavily criticized some members of the government. The president asked one minister why it takes some four months to issue investors with licenses. He added that, "As of today, I am relieving your ministry of responsibility for licensing." BP[08] TURKMENISTAN TO TRIPLE GAS EXPORTS TO IRAN IN 1999Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov has said the country's gas industry must be ready to export 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Iran via the Korpedzhe-Kurdkui pipeline in 1999, Interfax reported on 2 March. This year, Turkmenistan plans to export 4 billion cubic meters, of which 35 percent will be in payment for the construction by Iran of the pipeline. Tehran is to pay $40 per 1,000 cubic meters for the remainder of the gas. During his visit to Turkmenistan in January, Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin offered to pay $36 per 1,000 cubic meters, but Russia would re- export the gas to third countries at a far higher price. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] NEARLY 300 KOSOVARS INJURED IN PROTESTA violent police crackdown on a protest demonstration by Kosovars in Pristina on 2 March left some 289 ethnic Albanians injured, local Albanian- language dailies reported. Major international television broadcasters carried footage that showed police indiscriminately beating even elderly demonstrators. The footage also indicated that some young Albanians threw stones at police. PM[10] SERBIA SAYS KOSOVO SITUATION "UNDER CONTROL"Federal Interior Minister Pavle Bulatovic said in the parliament on 2 March that the situation in Kosovo is under control and that there is no need for military intervention or to declare a state of emergency. In Pristina, an Interior Ministry spokesman said the authorities will not permit what he called "demonstrations that support terrorism." And in Belgrade, representatives of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights strongly condemned "brutal police repression against the Albanians." The spokesmen added that repressive measures by the police only serve to "reinforce the existing state- sanctioned apartheid" dividing Serbs and Albanians and to give the Albanians no choice except to use violence themselves. PM[11] KOSOVARS WARN OF "TERRIBLE WAR"Xhafer Shatri, the information minister of the Kosovo government-in-exile, said in Geneva on 2 March that a "terrible war" will break out in Kosovo and affect surrounding countries if the international community does not intervene quickly in the wake of recent violence. In Pristina, shadow state President Ibrahim Rugova appealed to the international community--in particular to the U.S. and the EU--to put diplomatic pressure on Belgrade to "end violence in Kosovo." The steering committee of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), the leading Kosovar political party, also appealed to the international community to help stop what the LDK called the dangerous escalation of violence. LDK representatives conveyed their views directly to U.S. and U.K. diplomats in Belgrade, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Serbian capital. PM[12] U.S. APPEALS TO SERBIA OVER KOSOVOA State Department spokesman said in Washington on 2 March that the U.S. is "appalled" by the police violence in Kosovo and appealed to the Serbian authorities to address the Albanians' concerns. The spokesman also urged both sides to engage in an "unconditional dialogue." He warned, however, that the U.S. may reconsider its February decision to lift some long- standing commercial and diplomatic restrictions on Serbia "in light of Serbian actions in Kosovo over the last three days." He added that Washington is "considering further actions that might increase Belgrade's isolation." PM[13] EU CONDEMNS VIOLENCE...The British Foreign Office issued a statement in the name of the EU on 2 March saying that "the EU unreservedly condemns the violent repression of non-violent expressions of political views, including peaceful demonstrations as well as the use of violence and terrorism to achieve political goals. It regrets that police action led directly to civilian casualties." PM[14] ...AS DOES RUSSIAThe Foreign Ministry issued a statement in Moscow on 2 March noting that Russia "has unequivocally denounced terrorist acts and called for refraining from using force," Interfax reported. It urged the Yugoslav authorities to begin a dialogue with Albanian representatives. "The Kosovo problem should be settled on the basis of the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and of observing the rights of ethnic Albanians and other nationalities in accordance with OSCE standards, the Helsinki principles, and the UN Charter," the statement said. PM[15] MACEDONIA CALLS FOR ACTION ON KOSOVOMacedonian parliamentary speaker Tito Petkovski said in Vienna on 2 March that "when the [Kosovo] problem turns into an armed conflict, it will spread beyond Kosovo's boundaries. Without rapid [diplomatic] intervention, the stability of the whole region is threatened, including Macedonia," he added. Meanwhile in Skopje, government spokesman Zoran Ivanov said that the Macedonian authorities are "following the developments in Kosovo with great concern." He said that Macedonia expects the "problem will be solved peacefully, through a dialogue between the authorities in Belgrade and the political forces in Pristina," BETA news agency reported. Ivanov denied unspecified media reports that the border between Macedonia and Yugoslavia is closed. PM[16] SLOVENIA LAUNCHES KOSOVO APPEALThe Slovenian Foreign Ministry said in a statement in Ljubljana on 2 March that Slovenia "is extremely concerned about the increasing violence and new victims in Kosovo.... The killings should be stopped in order to start a tolerant political dialogue which should replace bloodshed and violence.... Slovenia supports an active role of the international community in settling the situation.... The international community should insist that human rights and liberties are respected." Slovenia currently holds a seat on the UN Security Council. PM[17] ALBANIAN PARLIAMENT WANTS NATO PRESENCEAlbanian lawmakers on 2 March approved a statement saying it is ready to "cooperate in every way" if NATO or the UN request that peacekeeping troops be stationed in the western Balkan region, "Koha Jone" reported. At an emergency parliamentary session, representatives of the Democratic Party proposed holding an all-Albanian national roundtable to formulate a common policy on Kosovo. Elsewhere, Prime Minister Fatos Nano urged the international community to become involved in the dispute, adding that the "developments in Drenica show that efforts to solve the Kosovo problems cannot be delayed any longer." Nano also telephoned with his Greek counterpart, Kostas Simitis, to urge him to use his good relations with Belgrade to help reach a settlement. FS/PM[18] ALBANIAN OPPOSITION CALLS FOR KOSOVO RESTRAINTDemocratic Party leader Sali Berisha issued a statement in Tirana on 2 March appealing to the U.S. and EU to help prevent "any further aggravation of the conflict, which could have unforeseen consequences for Kosovo and the southern Balkans." The former president also called on "the political leadership and individual Albanians in Kosovo to restrain themselves so as not to aggravate the conflict with Belgrade's police regime." Berisha was generally known as a supporter of the Kosovars during his presidency from 1992-1997. PM[19] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT HINTS CIORBEA MAY BE SACRIFICEDEmil Constantinescu said after a 2 March meeting with the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) leadership that in order to resolve the ongoing political crisis, the PNTCD "must ignore party interests." Observers believe this is a hint to the PNTCD that Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea may have to go if cooperation within the ruling coalition is to be restored. Constantinescu pointed out that the PNTCD is the largest political force within the coalition and that its responsibility toward solving the crisis is therefore "all the greater." He also said Romania is at present experiencing five crises: economic, social, political, moral, and communications-related. The last of those crises, he stressed, is particularly affecting the work of the cabinet. MS[20] ANOTHER COALITION PARTY DISTANCES ITSELF FROM CABINETRomanian Alternative Party (PAR) chairman Varujan Vosganian on 2 March said the cabinet has lost the authority needed to relaunch economic reform. He accused Ciorbea of delaying the process of drafting the budget and said the premier is suffering from a "centralist perception of the national economy." The previous day, a prominent leader of the National Liberal Party hinted that he backs the Democratic Party's demand that Ciorbea resign (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 March 1998). MS[21] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT ON UPCOMING ELECTIONSIn his weekly address to the nation, Petru Lucinschi on 2 March said that regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary elections later this month, Moldova will have no choice but to pursue reforms. But he warned that the elections could result in the "slowing down" of the reform process and may even "make us lose another five to seven years." Lucinschi said the success of reforms depended to a great extent on cooperation between himself and the legislature. He explained that, for this reason, he was calling on the electorate to back political parties that have already demonstrated their willingness to cooperate with him, Infotag and BASA-press reported. MS[22] RUSSIA WANTS IMPROVED TIES WITH BULGARIAIgor Stroev, chairman of the Federation Council, said in Sofia on 2 March that Russia wants to improve ties with Bulgaria, which are strained because of ongoing disputes over gas supplies, ITAR-TASS reported. Stroev is heading a Russian delegation that is taking part in the celebrations to mark 120 years since the Russo-Bulgarian victory against Turkey. MS[23] EUROLEFT PARTY FORMED IN BULGARIAThe Euroleft alliance has set up a new party, called Bulgarian Euroleft, whose aim is to unite Bulgaria's leftist formations and to establish a "modern, European social democracy" in the country, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported on 1 March. Euroleft was formed by defectors from the Socialist Party and won 14 seats in the April 1997 elections. Its leader, Alexander Tomov, will also head the new party. MS[C] END NOTE[24] BULGARIAN ECONOMY FROZEN EIGHT MONTHS AFTER START OF CURRENCY BOARDby Michael WyzanA deep economic crisis began in Bulgaria in May 1996 and reached its apogee when the consumer price index (CPI) rose 242.7 percent in February 1997 alone. The lev fell from 70.4 to the dollar at the end of 1995 to 2,045.5 to the dollar just 14 months later, as the national bank's foreign reserves fell from almost $1.5 billion in June 1995 to roughly a quarter of that in January 1997. The average monthly wage nose-dived from over $127 in December 1995 to under $25 in February 1997. Bulgaria's crisis reflected both poor macroeconomic policy and severe structural problems, especially the failure to privatize enterprises and banks or even to change the way they operated. Banks made uncollectable loans to enterprises; when the banks in turn got into trouble, the national bank frequently bailed them out through refinancing (i.e., lending) or programs to replace their bad debt with government bonds. Interest on those bonds became a burden on the budget, especially in 1996, when the deficit hit 11.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The crisis and its aftermath caused a shakeout among large enterprises and banks. In the end, 14 of 27 banks failed. The government of Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, elected in April 1997, introduced a currency board on 1 July. Under such a board, the exchange rate against a major currency is fixed and backed 100 percent (or more) by foreign reserves. The only increases allowed in the domestic money supply result from converting foreign currency into domestic money. The economy has stabilized greatly since the currency board's introduction. CPI inflation has fallen to 0.5-2 percent monthly over the last four months (it was 2.1 percent in January). That it has not fallen further partly reflects the weakening of the German mark against the dollar in July and August of 1997 and January 1998 and the liberalization of food and energy prices. Average monthly wages reached almost $108 in December 1997, twice their dollar level a year earlier. Confidence has returned to the banks, with people converting their money back into leva and redepositing it with them. The international financial institutions have resumed lending to Bulgaria. During 1997 it received $320 million from a loan awarded in April by the IMF, whose Bulgarian mission chief said in February that performance is "better than expected." Bulgaria also signed loan agreements with the World Bank ($100 million) and the EU ($250 million) last year. These factors contributed to a rise in the national bank's foreign reserves to over $2 billion by the end of 1997. For all the good news, the economy remains depressed, with GDP declining by 7.4 percent in 1997. While many observers had predicted rising unemployment this winter, that has not happened: the unemployment rate in January was 14.2 percent, higher than in the autumn, but equal to its level in July 1997. Banks are now flush with liquidity but seemingly unwilling to lend to enterprises. The main use for banks' funds is buying government bonds. With the budget deficit sharply reduced -- it was 3.6 percent of GDP last year and is projected at 2 percent this year -- the government demands less credit. Interest rates are extremely low. The national bank set its basic annual interest rate recently at 5.53 percent, with inflation (optimistically) projected at 16.5 percent. If banks resume lending to enterprises, interest rates on such loans will be much higher. Loans of that type are especially risky now that banks can no longer expect national bank bailouts. One irony is that although the economic crisis began with a huge drop in the lev, that event was not preceded by a large current account deficit. Bulgarian had small trade and current account surpluses in 1996 and larger ones in 1997. However, the continuing inflation under a fixed exchange rate regime will result in Bulgarian exports becoming more expensive and imports cheaper, undoubtedly leading to rising trade and current account deficits. That could occur as soon as this year, especially when the dollar wage exceeds its historical high of $128. Then the question becomes whether financial inflows, especially foreign direct investment, will flow in sufficiently to finance badly needed imports, especially of investment goods. Although there has been disappointment over the failure so far to receive higher credit ratings from international rating agencies, several large privatization deals have been signed involving foreign investors. One positive development is bank privatization. In July, the government announced the sale of the United Bulgarian Bank (Bulgaria's second largest) to several investors, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and Japan's Nomura won a tender on 18 February to buy 78.3 percent of the Postal Bank. The author is an economist living in Austria. 03-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
|
|
 |
|
 |
 |
|
All Rights Reserved.