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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 180, 97-12-16Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 180, 16 December 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] KARABAKH FOREIGN MINISTRY APPEALS TO OSCEThe Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno- Karabakh on 15 December addressed a statement to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe ahead of the OSCE foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The statement called on the OSCE to formalize Nagorno-Karabakh's status as an equal participant in the conflict throughout the negotiating process. (At present, Karabakh will forfeit that status after the signing of a political agreement formally ending the armed conflict.) The statement calls on the Copenhagen summit to adopt a document fostering the resumption of negotiations and containing no "preconditions [that will] predetermine their results." The statement says Stepanakert is concerned that the priority currently given by the OSCE Minsk Group to "methodological issues" impedes the search for a lasting solution to the conflict. LF[02] REACTIONS TO "TRIAL OF 31" VERDICTSTwo defense lawyers in the trial of 31 members and supporters of Armenia's banned Dashnak party (HHD) have condemned the 12 December court verdict as "unjust" and politically motivated and said they will appeal it, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. One defendant was sentenced to death, and others, including Dashnak party leader Vahan Hovannisian, to prison terms ranging from two-and-a-half to seven years for the murder of a policeman and calls for the violent overthrow of the government. Hovannisian's lawyer characterized his client as a "classical political prisoner." Similarly, the HHD Executive Council of Armenia issued a statement condemning the trial as based on "political considerations, innuendo, fabricated evidence and contradictory statements." It also said that the trial was aimed at "removing the political competition from the arena," Noyan Tapan reported. LF[03] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT CANCELS NETHERLANDS VISITHeidar Aliev has indefinitely postponed a visit to The Netherlands scheduled for 15-16 December, ITAR- TASS reported on 15 December, quoting a Dutch government spokesman. Aliev had been scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Wim Kok and sign several bilateral agreements. LF[04] TAJIK PLANE CRASHES IN MIDDLE EASTA plane of the Tajik national airline crashed in the United Arab Emirates on 15 December killing 85 people. The Tu-154 airliner was en route from the Tajik city of Khujand to the city of Sharja, when it went down 13 kilometers from the Sharja runway. Most of the 77 passengers were Tajik citizens. The navigator is the only survivor and reportedly is in critical condition at a local hospital. BP[05] ONE TAJIK HOSTAGE RELEASED, ONE FOUND DEADSecurity forces seeking to hunt down the remaining members of the Rezvon Sadirov gang have found Nuriddin Tabarov, who was captured by the outlaws on 3 October, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. Tabarov was discovered in a house where he had been abandoned by the fleeing bandits. However, the body of Tabarov's father was found in an outlaw camp in the mountains 20 kilometers north of Dushanbe. The elder Tabarov had died of an unspecified illness. Presidential guard commander General Gafar Mirzoyev is a relative of the Tabarovs. BP[06] TAJIK GOVERNMENT TO CUT NUMBER OF CIVIL SERVANTSPresident Imomali Rakhmonov has said the government will sack "superfluous" civil servants, Interfax reported on 15 December. Rakhmonov was referring to body guards for parliamentary deputies, some of whom have as many as 30 armed protectors. He noted that the Tajik people are "fed up with the brandishing of arms and escalating tension." He also called some of the guards "puppets of foreign special services," but he did not name any individuals or countries. BP[07] KYRGYZ STUDY REVEALS EVERY FIFTH CIVIL SERVANT "PROFESSIONALLY INADEQUATE" A recently completed six-month study of the performance of government workers at the district, city, and regional levels has revealed that some 20 percent are "professionally inadequate," Interfax reported on 15 December. Of the 93 officials who failed to pass a test on the country's legal system, 33 are deputy governors or deputy mayors, some of whom will be required to pass another test. BP[08] SAUDI ARABIA WANTS RESULTS IN KAZAKH INVESTIGATIONSaudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry said on 15 December, it is certain Kazakh authorities "will do their best to uncover the circumstances" of the murder of the second secretary of the Saudi Embassy in Kazakhstan, according to AFP. However, Saudi Arabia is sending its own team of investigators to Kazakhstan to help discover who murdered Ahmad al-Sawi in his apartment on 10 December. The ministry also called on Kazakhstan to "guarantee the safety of all diplomats so they can carry out their mission." BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] SERBS SENTENCE 17 KOSOVARSA Serbian court in Pristina on 16 December sentenced 17 ethnic Albanians to prison terms ranging from four to 20 years. Two other Kosovars were acquitted. The 19 were accused of membership in the clandestine Kosovo Liberation Army. It was the third large trial this year of ethnic Albanians on what the Albanians claim are baseless political charges. PM[10] ALBANIA, CROATIA SAY NO BALKAN PEACE WITHOUT KOSOVOAlbanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo said in Zagreb on 15 December that he and his host, Mate Granic, agreed that "the situation in Kosovo is currently very difficult, [explosive] and dangerous. We concluded that there will not be peace in southeast Europe" until the Kosovo issue is resolved. Milo added that "without democratization, the situation in Serbia cannot be peaceful and there cannot be cooperation and peace" in the Balkans. Meanwhile, prominent Kosovo politician Azem Vllasi told the Belgrade daily "Danas" that the outbreak of a "war in Kosovo is only a matter of time." PM[11] WHY IS DINI IN BELGRADE?Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini said in Belgrade on 15 December that the reason for his previously unannounced trip to the Yugoslav capital is to promote ties between Yugoslavia and the EU. He added that he also wants "to clarify" some matters regarding Belgrade's policies in Bosnia. An RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Serbian capital, however, that Italian sources said Dini's main goal is to persuade Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to implement a 1996 agreement on Albanian-language education in Kosovo. An Italian NGO sponsored the pact, which remains a dead letter. PM[12] BOSNIAN SERBS BLOCK CITIZENSHIP AGREEMENTSerbian legislators in the joint Bosnian parliament refused in Sarajevo on 15 December to accept the proposed law on Bosnian citizenship because the text includes no reference to the recent agreement between Pale and Belgrade on dual citizenship. Representatives of the Croatian-Muslim federation and the international community say that the Pale-Belgrade agreement is invalid (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 December 1997). Earlier on 15 December, the parliament passed a law regulating Bosnian passports for all three ethnic groups despite Serbian efforts aimed at delaying the vote. The international community at its conference in Bonn on 9-10 December gave the lawmakers an ultimatum to pass both the citizenship and the passport laws by 15 December. PM[13] CLINTON TO VISIT BOSNIAU.S. President Bill Clinton said in Washington on 15 December that he will visit Sarajevo and U.S. SFOR troops in Tuzla on 22 December. He is expected to meet top Bosnian leaders, including presidency member Alija Izetbegovic. Clinton last visited Bosnia in January 1996. PM[14] FRANCE DENIES ARBOUR CHARGES...Following a meeting in Paris on 15 December between Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine and Louise Arbour, the chief prosecutor of the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said the French government is "deeply shocked by [Arbour's] scandalous allegations that [Bosnian] Serb war criminals could feel safe in the French sector of Bosnia" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 December 1997). The spokeswoman added that Vedrine told Arbour that "France is cooperating with the [court] in its own way." In Strasbourg, General Jean-Philippe Douin, France's armed forces commander-in-chief, said that French troops in Bosnia are "impartial." PM[15] ...AS DOES NATOIn Brussels, a NATO spokesman said on 15 December that France follows the same rules of conduct as any other NATO state that participates in SFOR. The spokesman added that the situation has worsened for war criminals in Bosnia over the past year. He noted that all indicted Muslims and 14 indicted Croats have gone to The Hague and that the hard-line Serbs have lost their parliamentary majority. PM[16] RELATIONS COOL BETWEEN SLOVENIA, CROATIASlovenian Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek said on 15 December that his government is disappointed at recent amendments to the Croatian Constitution, which mention several ethnic minorities by name but not a Slovenian one (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 December 1997). Slovenian authorities called off a meeting slated for 15 December to deal with transportation questions, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Ljubljana. Spokesmen for the Transportation Ministry said Slovenia is in no hurry to complete a highway from Maribor to the Croatian border, which Zagreb badly wants. According to official Croatian statistics, some 54,000 ethnic Slovenes live in Croatia. The new amendments do not mention Muslims or Albanians by name, either. PM[17] SERB KILLED IN SLAVONIAN SHOOT-OUTEastern Slavonia's multi-ethnic police shot and killed a Serb in Beli Manastir on 15 December as he was trying to break into a police station. Earlier that day, the region's police administration came under Croatian control. PM[18] BOMB BLASTS ENVER HOXHA'S HOUSEA bomb heavily damaged the Gjirokaster home of late Albanian communist dictator Enver Hoxha and surrounding buildings on 15 December, "Dita Informacion" reported. Sabrie Hoxha, his distant relative, was injured in the blast. The house is used as a museum for Hoxha's World War II partisan movement. Nearby are offices of the OSCE and Mother Teresa's Sisters of Charity. It was the third explosion in the city within three days. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks. FS[19] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT AT NATO HEADQUARTERSEmil Constantinescu on 15 December met with NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Wesley Clark at the alliances headquarters in Brussels, an RFE/RL correspondent in Brussels reported. In other news, the private television channel Pro TV reported the same day that the Timisoara Prosecutor- General's office has completed its investigation into the role of Generals Victor Stanculescu and Mihai Chitac in the suppression of the December 1989 uprising in that town. The office will indict both Stanculescu and Chitac, who held the defense and interior portfolios, respectively, from 1990-1991. MS[20] INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FOR MOLDOVA TO CONTINUEInternational financial organizations offering assistance to Moldova decided on 15 December to continue backing Moldova's economic reform and efforts to accelerate economic growth and reduce inflation, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported, citing a World Bank statement. The organizations agreed that in 1998- 1999, Moldova will receive credits totaling $600 million. Prime Minister Ion Ciubuc, who attended the meeting in Paris, said most of the funds will come from the World Bank and the IMF. He added that the loans are conditional on budget restructuring and the passage of legislation on various social issues, including a law raising the retirement age. MS.[21] U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS RELATIONS WITH MOLDOVA IMPROVINGStephen Sestanovich, special adviser to U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on matters related to the Newly Independent States, told reporters in Chisinau on 15 December that Moldovan-U.S. relations have been improving of late, particularly since the conclusion of the agreement on the sale of the 21 MiG-29C aircraft to the US. Sestanovich noted that Moldova has recently made a "fundamental choice--that of belonging to the European Union," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. He emphasized that the U.S. "recognizes Moldova's territorial integrity." MS[22] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT IN BULGARIASpeaking at a joint press conference marking the end of Eduard Shevarnadze's two-day visit to Bulgaria, President Petar Stoyanov said Sofia "fully backs Georgia's desire to restore its territorial integrity." Shevardnadze said Georgia is willing to provide transshipment of oil from Azerbaijan to Bulgaria as an alternative to Russian supplies. The two presidents reached an agreement on training Georgian border guards in Bulgaria and establishing a regular ferry link between their Black Sea ports. Similar agreements were concluded with Romania during Shevarnadze's visit there on 10-11 December. MSREGIONAL AFFAIRS [23] OECD PREDICTS ECONOMIC GROWTHThe Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a report on 15 December saying that Russia's economy is likely to expand by 0.5 percent in 1997, 3 percent in 1998, and 5 percent in 1999. The OECD expects GDP in Poland and Hungary to grow by 4-5 percent in the next two years. But it says the Czech economy is unlikely to expand by more than 2 percent in the same period. Slovakia is a cause for concern because of what the OECD calls a "twin deficit" problem--a current account deficit of 10 percent of GDP and a deepening fiscal gap. The OECD says Romania's GDP is likely to grow by 1 percent in 1998, after a 4 percent fall in 1997. Bulgaria is also expected to see a 2 percent growth in its GDP, following a 6 percent decline this year. MS[C] END NOTE[24] MOLDOVA'S ECONOMY STILL STRUGGLING DESPITE SOLID REFORMSby Michael WyzanSince the breakup of the Soviet Union, Moldova has more consistently pursued sound macroeconomic policies and political democratization than most CIS states. Freedom House in 1997 gave it the third-highest ranking in the CIS (behind Russia and Kyrgyzstan and tied with Armenia) on economic reforms. Those reforms have resulted in low inflation and a stable currency. Nonetheless, the economy has declined longer and further than many others in the CIS. Moldova remains dependent on an agricultural sector vulnerable to weather patterns and to hindrances to its foreign trade arising from the dispute with the breakaway Transdniester region. Relations between the country and international financial institutions have worsened lately, as the parliament has balked at passing legislation to accelerate structural reform. Moldova was displaying favorable economic indicators by 1994. Retail prices rose by 105 percent from the end of 1993 to the end of the following year; within the CIS, only Kyrgyzstan had lower inflation. In 1995, Moldovan retail prices increased by 24 percent, the lowest inflation of all 15 former Soviet republics. Another early indicator of sound policy-making was the stability of the leu against the dollar. The currency unit fell from 4.06 to the U.S. dollar in April 1994 to only 4.27 at the end of that year and to 4.53 at the end of 1995. That stability posed a potential threat to exports, since inflation was faster than the leu's decline against Western currencies. Still, such stability under a floating exchange rate regime indicated confidence in fiscal and monetary policy and expectations of low inflation. Fiscal deficits have been modest by CIS standards, with the consolidated budget showing deficits of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in both 1994 and 1995. Despite those achievements, the economy has been slow to turn around. GDP fell by 8 percent in 1996, making for a cumulative decline of 64 percent from 1991 to 1996, one of the largest falls in the CIS. Aggregate production appears sensitive to weather-driven agricultural performance, with years of large GDP declines--1994 and 1996--characterized by meager grain, vegetable, and fruit harvests. However, TACIS experts argue that the apparent GDP fall in 1996 may be only temporary--the result of a surge in imports and the failure to record a significant volume of exports, especially to the CIS. Such exports typically transit the Transdniester region, and Chisinau cannot record them at Moldova's border with Ukraine. GDP is reportedly declining again this year, while industrial output was down 12 percent from January to June compared with the same period last year. Other economic indicators have been stagnating or even deteriorating. Disinflation is slow: the 15 percent inflation rate in 1996 was bettered by all three Transcaucasian states, which started reforming later. In November, the National Bank of Moldova raised its 1997 inflation estimate to 13 percent. The budget deficit, which reached 10 percent of GDP in 1996, is about 7 percent of GDP, compared with an IMF-agreed target of 4.5 percent. The trade regime has been fairly liberal since the end of 1993, and the parliament further liberalized it in late June. A Generalized System of Preferences scheme--which provides a duty-free regime for "non-sensitive" goods--is in force with the EU. Moldova is the only CIS state whose textile exports to the EU are not subject to quotas. Even so, Moldova's external relations are troubled. Moldova owes Gazprom $500 million, of which $332 million is owed by the Tiraspol authorities. Gazprom warned early this month of a cut-off in supplies unless that debt is settled. Ukraine applies country-of-destination rules to its tariffs and excise duties, as sanctioned by the World Trade Organization. Consistent with such rules, and out of concern that goods supposedly transiting Ukraine's territory may illegally be sold there, Kyiv imposes tax deposits on transit exports. This has caused problems for Moldovan exporters; at mid- year, trade with the CIS was down on 1996 levels. Furthermore, the EU treats Moldova's all- important exports of wine and fresh fruit and vegetables as "sensitive" sectors subject to tariffs. In earlier years, the IMF supported Moldova's reform efforts, providing $71 million in 1994, $65 million in 1995, and $41 million in 1996. However, the IMF postponed from June until July the release of a $21 million tranche under a three-year $195 million loan agreed to in May 1996; the fund cited unfulfilled conditions, especially on privatization. And in November, it delayed until early 1998 the next tranche release out of concern over the parliament's suspension of energy-price hikes and the growing budget deficit. Despite those setbacks, Moldova remains one of the most reform-minded CIS states. Accordingly, its failure so far to resume economic growth is worrisome. The author is an economist living in Austria. 16-12-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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