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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 67, 97-07-07Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 67, 7 July 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] PROGRESS IN GEORGIAN-ABKHAZ TALKSRussian Security Council Deputy Secretary Boris Berezovskii returned to Moscow on 3 July following three days of shuttle diplomacy between Tbilisi and Sukhumi, Russian and Western agencies reported. Both Berezovskii and Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba said they were satisfied with the ongoing talks. Berezovskii told journalists on 3 July that agreement has been reached on a mechanism, but not a specific timetable, for the repatriation of ethnic Georgians who fled Abkhazia in 1992-3. Neither he nor Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze divulged any details, however. Interfax on 4 July quoted an unidentified source in Moscow as claiming that talks in Moscow last month between Russian, Abkhaz, and Georgian representatives resulted in almost complete agreement on a protocol on resolving the conflict. Berezovskii said the signing of that document "will not be delayed."[02] GEORGIAN SECURITY MINISTER RESIGNSShevardnadze on 5 July accepted the resignation of Security Minister Shota Kviraya, Russian and Western agencies reported. Opposition parliamentary deputies have accused Kviraya of black-marketeering, telephone-tapping, and shooting six men suspected of looting. Kviraya has rejected the accusation as "lies and insults." The following day, Shevardnadze named Deputy Security Minister Maj.-Gen. Guram Gakhokidze as acting security minister.[03] TURKMENISTAN PROTESTS CREATION OF NEW CASPIAN CONSORTIUMThe Russian oil companies LUKoil and Rosneft will have 30 percent and 20 percent holdings, respectively, in a consortium to explore and develop the Kyapaz oil field, 145 km east of Baku on the border between the Azerbaijani and Turkmen sectors of the Caspian Sea, Turan reported on 4 July. The Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR will have the remaining 50 percent. The presidents of the three companies signed a corresponding agreement in Moscow on 4 July after talks between Aliev and Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov. The following day, the Turkmen Foreign Ministry issued a statement disputing Azerbaijan's ownership of the deposit and demanding the immediate annulment of the agreement, Interfax reported.[04] AFGHAN REFUGEES RETURN FROM TURKMENISTANMost of the 8,000 Afghan refugees who fled to Turkmenistan at the end of June and early July have returned to their villages in northern Afghanistan, according to Interfax and Reuters. Fighting between forces of the Taliban militia and Anti-Taliban coalition led by Gen. Abdul Malik has virtually ceased, allowing the refugees to return home. Conditions in the refugee camp in Turkmenistan were poor; 14 are reported to have died there and five are too ill to return. More than100 young men who do not wish to go back are currently being interviewed by the UNHCR's protection officer.[05] JAPANESE DELEGATION VISITS KAZAKSTANA Japanese delegation led by Keizo Obuchi, the head of the Economic Cooperation Committee of Japan's ruling Liberal-Democratic Party, pledged on 4 July to assist Kazakstan in its efforts to join the Asian-Pacific Cooperation Organization. Obuchi said Tokyo wants to participate in pipeline projects that will bring oil and gas from Kazakstan to China. He told journalists there are no obstacles to developing relations between Japan and Kazakstan and that Japan plans to increase investment in Kazakstan. Japan's Eximbank will finance 15 projects in Kazakstan and has increased the funds to finance those ventures to $6 billion, he added. Meanwhile, the IMF has announced that, based on Kazakstan's progress toward reforms in 1996, it will allocate some $1.35 billion instead of $200 million.[06] DEMONSTRATION IN BISHKEKSome 400 people took part in a demonstration outside the government building on 7 July to protest the arrest two days earlier of Nurlan Alymkulov, leader of the Yntymak movement, for planning a public rally, RFE/RL correspondents in Bishkek reported. Yntymak represents the young, unemployed, and homeless people of the Kyrgyz capital. The police asked the demonstrators to disband, telling them that Alymkulov has requested they do not hold any demonstration. When police attempted to take into custody Tursunbek Akunov, the chairman of Kyrgyzstan's Human Rights Movement, several women intervened to prevent them from doing so. The police then began using force to disperse the crowd. One woman has been hospitalized. This is the fourth demonstration in Bishkek in just over a month.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] ALBANIAN SOCIALISTS HOPE FOR TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY IN RUN-OFF ELECTIONSSocialist Party spokesmen said in Tirana that their party hopes to gain a two-thirds majority in the parliament after the run-off elections in 34 districts on 6 July. That majority would allow them to change the constitution. The Socialist and Social Democratic coalition took more than 80 of the legislature's 155 seats on 29 June. Socialist leader Fatos Nano said in Tirana on 6 July that he will be the next prime minister. Current Prime Minister Bashkim Fino may hold another senior position in the new cabinet, Nano added. According to ATA, Democratic Alliance leader Neritan Ceka defeated a Socialist candidate in Elbasan. Meanwhile near Shkoder, a gunman killed two members of a polling station commission and injured two more. In Mat, north of Tirana, one person was killed in another incident at a polling station.[08] CONFLICT BETWEEN ALBANIAN MONARCHISTS, GOVERNMENT SHARPENSOngoing tensions peaked on 3 July when Leka Zogu, the claimant to the throne, held a protest rally in Tirana. He charged the Socialists, in particular, with what he called the theft of the monarchists' victory in the 29 June referendum. The demonstration included a large number of armed people who attempted to march on the Central Election Commission, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Tirana. Leka himself wore fatigues and carried two guns and some hand-grenades, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. Police stopped the demonstration, but a shoot-out developed in which one monarchist was killed and two other persons injured. Leka's policy adviser Abedin Mulosmani charged that the police used "communist methods" and compared the incident to the shooting of protesters by communist police in 1991, "Bota Sot" reported on 5 July.[09] REPUBLIKA SRPSKA PRESIDENT REFUSES TO MEET WITH RIVALSBiljana Plavsic said in Banja Luka on 6 July that she fears for her safety and will not meet with Momcilo Krajisnik, the leading backer in the Bosnian Serb leadership of Radovan Karadzic. On 3 July, she dissolved the parliament and called early elections for 1 September. Karadzic's supporters, who have a narrow majority in the legislature, nonetheless began meeting near Pale on 4 July. They passed a series of measures aimed at weakening the president's powers and at facilitating her removal from office. The next day, Plavsic told several thousand supporters in Banja Luka that she should have informed them much earlier of the truth about crime and corruption in the Bosnian Serb leadership, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the area.[10] WILL NATO MOVE AGAINST KARADZIC?U.S. special forces are preparing to arrest former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and take him to The Hague to be tried for war crimes, London's "Daily Telegraph" and the "Frankfurter Rundschau" reported on 7 July. President Bill Clinton has reportedly decided that Karadzic must be removed from the scene if peace in Bosnia is to have a chance. Clinton intends to discuss the question of Bosnian war criminals at the Madrid NATO summit on 8-9 July, the two dailies add. U.S. diplomats have been shuttling between Madrid, Belgrade, Banja Luka, and Pale in recent days, and German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel raised the issue of Karadzic with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade on 6 June. Gen. John Shalikashvili, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in Washington that "it is terribly important...to apprehend these war criminals and bring them to justice."[11] FORMER HERZEGOVINIAN CROAT LEADER DIESMate Boban (55), the former head of the Herzegovinian-based Croatian Republic of Herceg-Bosna, died on 7 July in Mostar. He had suffered a brain hemorrhage three days earlier, and doctors said at the time that his condition was too serious to attempt to move him to a better hospital in Zagreb, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Mostar. In the Croatian capital, Roman Catholic Church spokesmen announced on 6 July that Pope John Paul II has appointed Bishop Josip Bozanic of Krk to succeed the retiring Cardinal Franjo Kuharic as archbishop of Zagreb. And the Croatian Peasants' Party voted to expel Zagreb city councilors Damir Bukovic and Josip Sporer, who had made their own deal with the governing Croatian Democratic Community to vote with that party in the council.[12] NEWS FROM FORMER YUGOSLAVIAIn Pristina, the Council for the Defense of Human Rights in Kosovo said on 4 July that Ali Qallopeku, an ethnic Albanian member of Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia, was killed near Glogovac. Nobody claimed responsibility for the murder, but the shadowy Kosovo Liberation Army has recently targeted ethnic Albanians whom it regards as collaborators with the Serbian regime. Meanwhile in Ljubljana, leaders of the parties represented in the parliament agreed on 4 July to cooperate to change the constitution by 15 July to enable Slovenia to meet EU requirements for associate member status. Many observers suggest, however, that Janez Jansa, the leader of the conservative Social Democrats, may nonetheless try to bring down the government and force new elections over the issue, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" wrote. The proposed constitutional changes, which would enable foreigners to buy property, are unpopular among the public.[13] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT INVITED TO ADDRESS POST-SUMMIT NATO GATHERINGNATO Secretary-General Javier Solana has invited Emil Constantinescu to attend a meeting of the Council of Euro-Atlantic Partnership in Madrid on 9- 10 July. The council was set up on 30 May at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Sintra, Portugal, and includes NATO's 16 members and the countries participating in the Partnership for Peace program. The Romanian Presidential Office reported on 6 July that Constantinescu will address a "working session" of the council that will discuss "Effective Cooperation for Security in the Euro-Atlantic Zone: Risks, Provocations, Opportunities." The office quoted Solana as saying the first meeting of the new body marks a "historic moment" launching "a new and comprehensive European security structure based on cooperation."[14] ROMANIAN POLITICAL UPDATEUnder a compromise reached on 5 July, the Democratic Party agreed to the removal of Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Gilda Lazar, who had criticized Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea's visit to the U.S. In exchange, the executive rebuffed Valerian Stan, the head of the Government Control department, by placing the department under the direct supervision of the premier. Stan is a member of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD). The government said Stan's allegations that Democratic Party leaders were involved in the illegal acquisition of apartments had "mislead public opinion." One day earlier, Democratic Party chairman Petre Roman said there was a "breach of trust" between his party and the PNTCD, following a statement by PNTCD leader Ion Diaconescu mentioning the possibility of early elections and forming a government without the Democrats.[15] LABOR PROTEST IN MOLDOVASeveral thousand workers and pensioners continue to protest in Chisinau against the 60% hike in electricity prices introduced in March and against wage arrears. The demonstration, which began on 3 July, is organized by the Moldovan Trade Union Federation. whose leader, Ion Godonoga, met on 4 July with members of the cabinet. BASA-press reported that although an agreement was in sight on wage arrears, the government refuses to revoke its decision to raise electricity prices. Finance Minister Valeriu Chitan said the government cannot meet protesters' demand to increase wages because GDP declined by 6 percent in 1996.[16] MOLDOVAN PARTY EXPELS TWO DEPUTIESThe Socialist Unity-Edinstvo faction in the parliament on 3 July expelled Vladimir Slonari and Dimitrii Uzun and asked parliamentary chairman Dumitru Motpan to remove Slonari from the chairmanship of the Commission for Human Rights and Ethnic Relations, Infotag and BASA-press reported. The decision comes after Slonari voted in favor of the government-proposed draft law providing for the sale of land. Slonari, who recently set up a new political party called the Civic Party of Moldova, said the decision illustrates the growing "trend toward the Left, toward political radicalism and against reform" that is under way in the Socialist Unity-Edinstvo party.[17] BULGARIA LIFTS RESTRICTIONS ON CURRENCY TRADEThe government has lifted most restrictions on buying and selling foreign currency, an RFE/RL correspondent in Sofia reported on 3 July. Citizens and state-owned companies no longer need special permission from the National Bank to buy hard currency, but Finance Minister Muravei Radev said some restrictions on the amount of hard currency allowed to be taken abroad will remain in force until the parliament passes a new law regulating currency trade in general. In other news, the German publisher Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung (WAZ) acquired on 4 July 100 percent of Bulgaria's biggest press group, the 168 Chasa Press, which publishes the popular "24 Chasa" daily. In September 1996, the WAZ acquired 70 percent of the Bulgarian group's shares. The WAZ also owns a 70 percent of Media Holding, which publishes the country's second-largest daily, "Trud."[18] BULGARIAN HOLY SYNOD RE-ESTABLISHES INDEPENDENCE FROM STATEThe Holy Synod of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church on 3 July formally re- established its independence from the state, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported. The synod met for the first time in 44 years and was headed by Patriarch Maxim, whose foes criticize him for cooperating with the Communists. It decided to meet every four years and annulled the regulation imposed by the Communists whereby the patriarch had to be approved by the government. Maxim's opponents, headed by Metropolitan Pymen, boycotted the meeting. In 1996, Pymen declared himself patriarch and set up his own Holy Synod. He was subsequently excommunicated and anathematized by Maxim.[C] END NOTE[19] WHY ONLY THREE COUNTRIES WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED IN FIRST WAVE OF NATO ENLARGEMENTby Michael MihalkaNATO will likely invite only three countries--the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland--to join the alliance at the Madrid summit on 8-9 July. Several NATO members wanted to extend an invitation to Slovenia and Romania, but the United States has made it clear that it would like the first wave of NATO enlargement to be small. The U.S. government's decision says a great deal about the current dynamics of European security. First, by restricting the first wave to the three Central European countries, the U.S. has removed the Baltic States' candidacy from the security agenda for the time being. Both Washington and Bonn wish to avoid needlessly antagonizing Moscow, which strongly objects to NATO enlarging to include countries from the former Soviet Union. Russia acquiesced to the first wave of enlargement by signing the Russia-NATO Founding Act, which states that NATO has neither plans nor reasons to deploy nuclear weapons or foreign troops on the territory of the new members. Russia has interpreted this to also mean that NATO will not build any new infrastructure there either. Second, the U.S. government is particularly concerned about how the debate on enlargement will unfold in the Senate. To date, the NATO enlargement process has failed to prompt a public debate in the U.S. This is surprising, since enlargement will entail not only clear obligations but also costs that have not yet been determined. Third, many feel that Romanian democracy and economic reform, despite having made significant progress in the last year, need more time to take root before that country can be considered for NATO membership. The government of Vladimir Meciar in Slovakia has come under fire from both the EU and U.S. for its anti- democratic tendencies. And in Sofia, it is only recently that a center- right government in favor of NATO membership has been reinstalled to replace the Socialists, who had shown greater interest in siding with Moscow. Fourth, while few observers dispute Slovenia's democratic credentials and its economic successes (despite lagging behind other countries in the region with regard to privatization), some point out that, with its population of some 2 million, it is unlikely to make much of a military contribution to the alliance. That argument has also been made against the candidacy of the Baltic States, whose prospects for NATO entry would be undercut by Slovenia's inclusion. Fifth, the admission of Romania and Slovenia would cause a shift in the strategic focus of the alliance to southeastern Europe. This is one of the reasons that countries like Italy, Turkey, and Greece have been supporting Bucharest and Ljubljana. However, the implications of such a shift have not yet been thought through. And in the meantime, NATO's continued participation in Bosnia following the expiry of SFOR's mandate remains in doubt. Sixth, the Madrid summit will cover a number of topics that will command the attention of the alliance. These include the enlargement of NATO's integrated military structure to include Spain and possibly France. Finally, the alliance will also embark on an enhanced Partnership for Peace program to promote integration with those countries that are not be invited to join in the first wave. Planning cells will be set up in NATO headquarters in which the military from partnership countries will be invited to participate. The North Atlantic Cooperation Council has already been transformed into the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which has increased responsibilities. Thus, enlargement of the alliance to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland will take place at a time of considerable change within the alliance. Those three countries have sound democratic and economic credentials, and their accession to NATO will not significantly alter the alliance's strategic focus. The author teaches at the George C. Marshall Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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