Epilogh OMRI Daily Digest, no. 33, part II, 15 Feb. 1995 [**]

1. . U.S. OFFERS SERBIA CONDITIONAL LIFTING OF SANCTIONS.
2. . BOSNIAN ARMY RETAKING LOST GROUND IN BIHAC POCKET.
3. . WILL CROATIA AGREE TO A NEW MANDATE FOR UNPROFOR?
4. . SERBIAN NATIONALISTS CALL FOR UNITY AGAINST KOSOVARS.
5. ** MACEDONIA SUFFERS HUGE LOSSES FROM EMBARGO, WANTS TALKS WITH GREECE.
6. ** GREECE TO AGREE TO EU-TURKEY AGREEMENT?

OMRI DAILY DIGEST

No. 33, Part II, 15 February 1995

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

1. U.S. OFFERS SERBIA CONDITIONAL LIFTING OF SANCTIONS. The Washington Post and the BBC on 15 February report that the Clinton administration has again made a major change in its policy toward the former Yugoslavia in the hope of cobbling together a settlement before fighting resumes in Bosnia in the spring. The new plan calls for the immediate lifting of sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro for two months, with extensions if President Slobodan Milosevic agrees to several conditions. Those include recognizing the other former Yugoslav republics in their Tito- era boundaries, tightening his dubious blockade of the Bosnian Serbs, and pressuring Pale to accept the Contact Group's peace plan. The policy was agreed to only after much heated discussion, with opponents fearing that once the sanctions are lifted they will not be reimposed, even if Milosevic flagrantly breaks any promises he makes. The Serbian president is unlikely to agree to recognize Croatia's and Bosnia's frontiers, since that would mean giving up hopes of a Greater Serbia that he harbored even before starting the current war. -- Patrick Moore, OMRI, Inc.

2. BOSNIAN ARMY RETAKING LOST GROUND IN BIHAC POCKET. Radio Bosnia and Herzegovina reported on 14 February that government forces have reversed most, if not all, the gains the Serbs made in their counteroffensive last fall. The broadcast claimed that the Fifth Corps has retaken the strategic Debeljaca Hill from the Serbian forces there, which consist of units from both Bosnia and Krajina as well as of those loyal to local kingpin Fikret Abdic. If the reports are correct, then the government forces now control the frontiers of the UN-declared "safe area" of Bihac. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of 15 February also notes that the UN is trying to confirm the Bosnian claims. -- Patrick Moore, OMRI, Inc.

3. WILL CROATIA AGREE TO A NEW MANDATE FOR UNPROFOR? Ever since President Franjo Tudjman announced last month that UNPROFOR must leave Croatia when its current mandate runs out on 31 March, there has been much speculation as to whether his decision will stick. Some observers suggested that he had to stand by the new policy because of domestic political pressures. Others felt that equally strong demands from Washington and the EU would force him to reconsider. Now Vecernji list, Nasa Borba, and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 15 February suggest that a compromise may have been found. The reports quote Deputy Director of the German Foreign Ministry Klaus-Peter Klaiber and the Croatian ambassador to the US as saying that UNPROFOR may be able to stay but under redefined conditions. Vecernji list notes that Klaiber did not spell out what changes he had in mind and whether they would be major or minor, but the Contact Group has reportedly made a concrete proposal to Zagreb. The Frankfurt daily quotes Ambassador Sarcevic as saying that "a new UN contingent for controlling the frontiers and monitoring human rights could be accepted." Elsewhere, Slovenia's foreign minister told his German counterpart that he hopes UNPROFOR's mandate can somehow be renewed but added that he understands that Croatia cannot accept a UN presence that merely serves to protect Serbian conquests and effectively partition the country. -- Patrick Moore, OMRI, Inc.

4. SERBIAN NATIONALISTS CALL FOR UNITY AGAINST KOSOVARS. Momcilo Trajkovic, leader of the Serbian Defense Movement for Kosmet, has called for unity among "all political forces, regardless of party affiliation, to hinder the [creation of a] parallel state of Albanian separatists in Kosovo and Metohija," the state-run Borba reports on 15 February. Trajkovic alleged that the Kosovar shadow government is harboring a "war option." Since the abolition of Kosovar autonomy in 1989, the Albanians have followed a program of non-violent resistance. According to the independent Nasa Borba, Trajkovic admitted that his organization has not yet gotten an answer to an open letter addressed to various institutions and parties in December calling for the creation of a "national council in which all political parties would work out one common national program." But he said that 40,000 people in Pristina have so far signed the letter. Reuters reported on 13 February that Albanian President Sali Berisha said a peace conference on former Yugoslavia, as proposed by French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, should discuss the Kosovo crisis and invite the Kosovar shadow state government as that country's "legitimate representatives." -- Fabian Schmidt, OMRI, Inc.

5. MACEDONIA SUFFERS HUGE LOSSES FROM EMBARGO, WANTS TALKS WITH GREECE. The Macedonian government wants UN-brokered talks with Greece, AFP reported on 14 February. Foreign Minister Stevo Crvenkovski said Macedonia favors dialogue, but only under UN auspices. Dimitar Bercev of the Foreign Ministry's economic desk revealed that the Greek trade embargo, which was implemented one year ago, has cost Macedonia about $500 million. Macedonia has been forced to reroute its trade through Albania and Bulgaria since Greece closed Thessaloniki harbor to Macedonian imports and exports. A ton of oil imported earlier via Greece cost $19; it now costs $57 via the Bulgarian port of Burgas. -- Stefan Krause, OMRI, Inc.

6. GREECE TO AGREE TO EU-TURKEY AGREEMENT? Greek government spokesman Evangelos Venizelos said on 13 February that Athens will probably sign a customs union agreement between the EU and Turkey, but only if several points are cleared up first, Reuters reported the same day. Greece last week drew criticism from most of its EU partners for saying it would veto the union. The Greek government has linked the customs union issue to EU membership talks with Cyprus. It is also demanding that less money be offered to Turkey to implement the union and that Greece receive more compensation for potential losses sustained by its textile industry. Turkish Foreign Minister Murat Karayalcin said his country hopes to overcome Greek objections, but not at too high a price. Meanwhile, the other EU members rejected most of Greece's conditions, AFP reported on 14 February. -- Stefan Krause, OMRI, Inc.