Voice of America, 97-02-24

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] E-U / ARAFAT (L-ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

[03] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

[04] NATO/RUSSIA (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

[05] TURKEY/SECULARISM BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[06] U-S / NATO EXPANSION COSTS (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[01] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF WHITEWATER SPECIAL COUNSEL KENNETH STARR IN RESCINDING HIS PLANNED RESIGNATION EARLIER LAST WEEK CONTINUES TO OCCUPY A PROMINENT PLACE IN THE NATION'S EDITORIAL COLUMNS THIS MONDAY.

OTHER TOPICS INCLUDE: THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE CUBAN SHOOT DOWN OF U-S RESCUE PLANES; CONCERN FOR TENSIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA; [OPT] THE CONTROVERSY OVER MAMMOGRAMS; [END OPT] THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION; AND WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR CHINA AFTER THE DEATH OF DENG XIAOPING.

NOW, HERE WITH A QUOTE OR TWO IS ________________ AND TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: LAST FRIDAY, KENNETH STARR RESCINDED HIS RESIGNATION, SAYING IT HAD BEEN A MISTAKE. MR. STARR IS THE SPECIAL INDEPENDENT COUNSEL INVESTIGATING THE WHITEWATER LAND DEVELOPMENT MATTER AND RELATED AFFAIRS INVOLVING PRESIDENT AND MRS. CLINTON. HIS REVERSAL DRAWS THIS RESPONSE FROM TODAY'S CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR:

VOICE: "KENNETH STARR'S ON-AND-OFF ABDICATION LAST WEEK MADE HIM LOOK MORE LIKE A WHITEWATER RAFTER [ONE OF THOSE UNDER INVESTIGATION] THAN INDEPENDENT COUNSEL. ..... TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE, MR. STARR WILL BE MORE THOROUGH AND EXPEDITIOUS THAN EVER IN COMPLETING HIS MANY-FACETED INVESTIGATION. THAT SHOULD MEAN GOING AT IT FULL TIME WITHOUT SUCH CRITICIZED DIVERSIONS AS REPRESENTING TOBACCO INTERESTS AND GIVING SPEECHES."

TEXT: THE WASHINGTON TIMES SECONDS THAT MOTION.

VOICE: "GIVEN MR. STARR'S LAPSE IN JUDGMENT, IT IS ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT THAT THE WHITEWATER INVESTIGATION PROCEED WITH THE GREATEST CARE AND PROFESSIONALISM. ..... EVEN MORE SO THAN BEFORE, MR. STARR'S EVERY MOVE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY, AND THE UNFORTUNATE FACT IS THAT HIS CRITICS MAY NOW FIND A MORE HOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THEIR WILD CHARGES."

TEXT: TODAY'S MIAMI HERALD MARKS THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE SHOOT DOWN BY CUBAN AIR FORCE MIGS, OF A PAIR OF UNARMED CIVILIAN PLANES FLYING OUT OF FLORIDA TO AID CUBAN REFUGEES RAFTING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

VOICE: "WHEN FIDEL CASTRO ORDERED TWO CESSNA 337S SHOT DOWN ..... HE DID MORE THAN KILL THREE U-S CITIZENS AND A LEGAL RESIDENT. HE COMMITTED AN ACT OF NAKED BARBARISM, A DEED SO REPREHENSIBLE THAT IT WILL STAND TILL ETERNITY AS A SYMBOL OF HIS COLDHEARTED, CALCULATING WICKEDNESS. THIS SINGULAR ACT OF PREMEDITATED MURDER - - NONE CONVINCINGLY CAN CALL IT ANYTHING ELSE - - HAS HAD CONSEQUENCES FAR BEYOND ANY CALCULATION THAT THE CUBAN DICTATOR MAY HAVE MADE. .... IT WAS AN AMERICAN TRAGEDY."

TEXT: STILL WITH LATIN AMERICAN NEWS, THE WASHINGTON TIMES EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER THE RECENT FIRING OF THE TOP MEXICAN ARMY GENERAL LEADING THAT NATION'S FIGHT AGAINST ILLEGAL DRUG TRAFFICKERS.

VOICE: "ANALOGIES ARE NEVER EXACT, BUT TO APPRECIATE FULLY HOW THE RECENT MEXICAN DRUG DEBACLE COLOSSALLY COMPROMISED THE MEXICAN-U-S ALLIANCE IN THE WAR ON DRUGS, IMAGINE THAT LONGTIME K-G-B MOLE [DOUBLE AGENT] ALDRICH AMES, TWO MONTHS BEFORE HIS TREASONOUS ADVENTURES WERE UNCOVERED, HAD BEEN PROMOTED TO CHIEF OF C-I-A CLANDESTINE OPERATIONS, WHERE HE - - AND HIS RUSSIAN MASTERS - - WOULD HAVE BECOME PRIVY TO ALL [ITALICS FOR EMPHASIS] OF THE AGENCY'S CROWN JEWELS [TOP MOST SECRETS]. WITH LAST WEEK'S REVELATION THAT MEXICO'S DRUG CZAR, WHO HAD BEEN APPOINTED TWO MONTHS EARLIER, WAS ARRESTED FOR COCAINE TRAFFICKING AND PROTECTING MEXICO'S LARGEST DRUG CARTEL, IT IS NO HYPERBOLE TO SUGGEST THAT U-S DRUG-WAR INTELLIGENCE HAS BEEN COMPARABLY COMPROMISED."

TEXT: IN ANOTHER EDITORIAL, THE MIAMI HERALD EXPRESSES CONCERN OVER TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO KOREAS.

VOICE: "KOREA MAY BE 'THE LAND OF THE MORNING CALM,' BUT TENSIONS PERSIST THERE. THE LATEST DUST-UP [QUARREL] IS PARTICULARLY WORRISOME AND ILL-TIMED. PYONGYANG IS SEETHING OVER TWO NORTH KOREAN DEFECTORS WHO MAY KNOW TOO MUCH. ONE, LEE HAN YOUNG, WAS SHOT IN SEOUL; NORTH KOREA WAS AN IMMEDIATE SUSPECT IN THE ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION. THE OTHER DEFECTOR - - HWANG JANG YOP, WHO WAS ONCE A MENTOR TO NORTH KOREAN DICTATOR KIM JONG IL - - [IS] HOLED UP [HIDING OUT] IN SOUTH KOREA'S EMBASSY IN BEIJING. ..... YET THE BIGGEST DESTABILIZING FORCE IN THE REGION IS NORTH KOREA'S SHAKY ECONOMY. THE 38TH PARALLEL IS A CHASM BETWEEN ECONOMIC SUCCESS IN THE SOUTH AND MISERY IN THE NORTH. .... IN THE PAST, TYRANTS BEDEVILED BY DOMESTIC PROBLEMS HAVE OFTEN RESORTED TO DISTRACTING THE POPULACE BY ENGAGING IN MILITARY ADVENTURES."

TEXT: IN MAINE, TODAY'S PORTLAND PRESS HERALD ENTERS THE MEDICAL DEBATE CONCERNING THE VALIDITY OF MAMMOGRAMS TO DETECT BREAST CANCER IN WOMEN AS YOUNG AS 40. RECENTLY A PANEL OF MEDICAL EXPERTS RECOMMENDED THAT SUCH WOMEN SHOULD NOT ROUTINELY HAVE SUCH EXAMINATIONS.

VOICE: "THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE'S NATIONAL CANCER ADVISORY BOARD SHOULD REJECT THE FINDINGS OF AN INDEPENDENT PANEL THAT SLOUGHED OFF MAMMOGRAMS FOR WOMEN IN THEIR 40S LAST MONTH. THE BOARD SHOULD REINSTATE GUIDELINES, IN EFFECT FROM 1989 TO 1993, THAT RECOMMENDED THE PROCEDURE. ..... IN REACHING THEIR DECISION, PANELISTS ..... LEAPED OVER A RANGE OF DIAGNOSTIC PROCEDURES TO SUGGEST THAT WHEN MAMMOGRAMS SHOW UNTHREATENING TUMORS, WOMEN WILL BE RUSHED INTO SURGERY. ..... THE N-C-I SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITS GUIDELINES - - AND ITS OWN CREDIBILITY."

TEXT: TODAY'S WASHINGTON POST IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, SUCCESSOR TO THE GATT - - THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE.

VOICE: "IN THEIR CONFRONTATION OVER TRADE WITH CUBA, THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED STATES HAVEN'T MANAGED TO WRECK THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION - - NOT YET. BUT THEY ARE CERTAINLY PUTTING IT AT RISK. THE HARM THEY WOULD CAUSE BY OVERBURDENING THE EVOLVING AND STILL FRAGILE SYSTEM OF OPEN GLOBAL TRADE WOULD IMMEASURABLY OUTWEIGH ANY POLITICAL ADVANTAGE EITHER SIDE IMAGINES IT MIGHT REAP. THE TWO SIDES SHOULD REACH A COMPROMISE WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME."

TEXT: AND FINALLY, SOME THOUGHTS ON CHINA AFTER THE DEATH OF DENG XIAOPING FROM TODAY'S WALL STREET JOURNAL.

VOICE: "DEMOCRACIES MAKING EXCUSES FOR DICTATORSHIPS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE STRANGER PHENOMENA OF THE SECOND HALF OF THIS CENTURY. THE WORST OFFENSES OF THE TYRANT DU JOUR ARE EXPLAINED AWAY AS THE NECESSARY MOVES OF A CLOSET REFORMER NEEDING TO OUTFLANK HIS CONSERVATIVE ENEMIES. ..... IN THE CASE OF CHINA FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF DENG XIAOPING, THE DANGER IS THAT THE NEW ERA REGIME WILL TAKE A DETOUR ON THE ROAD TO REFORM AND END UP SLAYING THE GOOD DRAGON. ..... IN THE PAST YEAR ALONE, PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN HAS OVERSEEN INNUMERABLE CAMPAIGNS TO PURGE AND PURIFY AT EVERY LEVEL OF SOCIETY. AMONG THE MOST VISIBLE HAVE BEEN THOUSANDS OF EXECUTIONS, INTENSIFIED CRACKDOWNS IN TIBET AND XINJIANG, FRESH WAVES OF ARRESTS AND SHOWCASE TRIALS OF ALLEGED DISSIDENTS."

TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIALS FROM SOME OF TODAY'S U-S PAPERS.
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24-Feb-97 11:06 AM EST (1606 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] E-U / ARAFAT (L-ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

INTRO: PALESTINIAN LEADER YASSER ARAFAT SIGNED A NEW TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH THE 15-NATION EUROPEAN UNION ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL GIVE GOODS AND PRODUCTS FROM HIS TERRITORY FAVORABLE ACCESS TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST MARKET. MR. ARAFAT ALSO USED HIS VISIT TO BRUSSELS TO REPEAT HIS CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL'S NEW SETTLEMENTS IN EAST JERUSALEM AND TO SEEK EUROPEAN BACKING FOR HIS STANCE. JOHN FRASER REPORTS FROM BRUSSELS.

TEXT: THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE PALESTINIANS IS A FURTHER STEP IN A COMPLEX PROCESS DESIGNED TO BRING TOGETHER IN A NEW PARTNERSHIP THE COUNTRIES BORDERING THE MEDITERRANEAN.

MR. ARAFAT SAYS THAT THE NEW ACCORD IS IMPORTANT BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY AND WILL CEMENT THE DEEP-ROOTED SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE PALESTINIANS.

HE SAYS HIS PEOPLE STARTED WITH LESS THAN NOTHING, BUT ARE NOW BUILDING UP AN INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE TERRITORIES THEY HAVE WON BACK FROM ISRAEL. HE SAYS HE IS GRATEFUL FOR THE AID THAT EUROPE HAS GIVEN TO ASSIST IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT JACQUES SANTER SAYS THE AGREEMENT EXTENDS BEYOND TRADE INTO A NEW POLITICAL DIALOGUE, AS WELL AS COOPERATION ON EMPLOYMENT AND CULTURE. AND HE SAYS IT FORMS A BASIS FOR A LASTING PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE PALESTINIANS, BASED ON A JOINT COMMITMENT TO STABILITY AND TO DEMOCRATIC VALUES.

MR. ARAFAT HAS USED HIS VISIT TO BRUSSELS TO AGAIN ATTACK NEW ISRAELI SETTLEMENTS IN JERUSALEM, WHICH HE SAYS ARE CAUSING PROBLEMS NOT JUST FOR THE PALESTINIANS BUT ALSO FOR OTHER ARABS AND THE CHRISTIAN AND MOSLEM COMMUNITIES. HE SAYS THE SETTLEMENTS COULD THREATEN THE PEACE PROCESS, FOR WHICH FORMER ISRAELI LEADER YITZHAK RABIN GAVE HIS LIFE. AND MR. ARAFAT SAYS THE ACTION BY ISRAEL IS A BREACH OF U-N RESOLUTIONS.

THIS VIEW WAS SUPPORTED BY DUTCH FOREIGN MINISTER HANS VAN MIERLO, WHOSE COUNTRY CURRENTLY HOLDS THE PRESIDENCY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. HE SAYS THE E-U HAS CONSISTENTLY CONDEMNED THE SETTLEMENTS, WHICH, HE WARNED, POSE A THREAT TO THE PEACE PROCESS. HE SAYS REPRESENTATIONS WILL BE MADE (BY THE E-U) TO THE ISRAELIS TO HALT THE SETTLEMENTS. (SIGNED)
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24-Feb-97 2:33 PM EST (1933 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

INTRO: MAJOR STOCK MARKETS IN WESTERN EUROPE SAW LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN PRICES MONDAY. PAUL FRANCUCH IN OUR LONDON OFFICE HAS THE CLOSING FIGURES.

TEXT: THE UPWARD MOVEMENT ON WALL STREET BY MID-DAY CAME TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT -- IF ANY AT ALL -- ON STOCK MOVEMENT IN FRANKFURT, LONDON, AND PARIS. IN LONDON, FINANCIAL ANALYSTS SAY THE CONTINUING STRENGTH OF THE POUND HAD A DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE "FINANCIAL TIMES 100" INDEX OF STOCKS. IT LOST JUST LESS THAN SIX-POINTS FOR THE DAY. THE PARIS "CAC 40" STOCK INDEX WAS UP AND DOWN IN MONDAY TRADING, FINISHING THE DAY WITH A GAIN OF FIVE POINTS. GERMAN STOCKS TRACKED BY THE "DAX 30" INDEX IN FRANKFURT FINISHED VIRTUALLY FLAT, A FRACTION OF A POINT HIGHER.

ON CURRENCY EXCHANGES, BOTH THE MARK AND THE POUND GAINED MORE THAN A CENT IN VALUE AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THERE WAS LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE PRICE OF GOLD IN LONDON. IT WAS FIXED AT 353-DOLLARS-15 CENTS AN OUNCE -- A GAIN OF 60-CENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS PRICE FIX. (SIGNED)
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24-Feb-97 1:23 PM EST (1823 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] NATO/RUSSIA (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: PROGRESS ON EASING RUSSIAN CONCERNS OVER NATO'S ENLARGEMENT EASTWARD HAS BEEN MADE IN A SECOND ROUND OF TALKS BETWEEN SECRETARY-GENERAL JAVIER SOLANA AND FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV. V-O-A'S VICTOR BEATTIE REPORTS THE UNITED STATES INSISTS NATO ENLARGEMENT, SLATED TO TAKE PLACE IN FOUR MONTHS, WILL BRING STABILITY TO EUROPE:

TEXT: A STATEMENT ISSUED IN BRUSSELS SAYS THE TALKS WERE CONSTRUCTIVE AND PROGRESS WAS MADE ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF TALKS COULD BE HELD IN MOSCOW.

THE NATO LEADER AND RUSSIA'S TOP DIPLOMAT ARE TRYING TO FORGE A NEW SECURITY RELATIONSHIP AMID RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO NATO ENLARGEMENT AS A THREAT TO ITS NATIONAL SECURITY. A NEW POLL INDICATES ONE-THIRD OF RUSSIANS OPPOSE NATO EXPANSION WHILE 22-PERCENT SAID RUSSIA SHOULD ALSO JOIN NATO.

U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADLEINE ALBRIGHT, WHO IS VISITING JAPAN, SPOKE ON ABC TELEVISION "THIS WEEK" WITH DAVID BRINKLY.

U-S SECRETARY ALBRIGHT -- WHO DISCUSSED THE ISSUE WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN IN MOSCOW LAST WEEK -- INSISTS EXPANSION REPRESENTS A NEW KIND OF NATO:

THIS IS NOT A NATO WITH ONE SINGLE ENEMY. IF THERE IS AN ENEMY, THE ENEMY IS INSTABILITY.

MS. ALBRIGHT SAYS NATO WOULD ACHIEVE AN UNDIVIDED AND FREE EUROPE, A SO-FAR UNREALIZED OBJECTIVE FOLLOWING WORLD WAR TWO:

AND, IT IS NOT A WE-VERSUS-THEM. IT IS A NATO WHERE WE ARE ALL ON THE SAME SIDE.

THE SECRETARY SAYS NATO ENLARGEMENT HAS ALREADY HELPED EASE DISPUTES BETWEEN HUNGARY AND ROMANIA AND GERMANY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO BE ADDED TO THE 16-MEMBER ALLIANCE AT A JULY SUMMIT IN MADRID. (SIGNED)
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23-Feb-97 9:01 PM EST (0201 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] TURKEY/SECULARISM BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: TURKEY'S ISLAMIST-LED GOVERNMENT FACES TWO PARLIAMENTARY CENSURE MOTIONS ON TUESDAY. THE MOTIONS -- PROPOSED SEPARATELY BY THE OPPOSITION "SOCIAL DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY" AND THE "DEMOCRATIC LEFT PARTY" -- ACCUSE THE RULING COALITION OF SEEKING TO UNDERMINE TURKEY'S STATE POLICY OF SECULARISM -- A POLICY WHICH HAS GUIDED THE MAINLY MUSLIM COUNTRY SINCE THE REPUBLIC WAS FOUNDED BY KEMAL ATATURK MORE THAN 70 YEARS AGO. BUT THE DEBATE OVER SECULARISM IS THREATENING TO POLARIZE TURKEY. AMBERIN ZEMAN EXPLAINS WHY, IN THIS REPORT FROM ANKARA.

TEXT: FEW OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT TUESDAY'S VOTE WILL ACTUALLY BRING DOWN THE COALITION GOVERNMENT OF THE ISLAMIC "WELFARE PARTY" LEADER AND PRIME MINISTER, NECMETTIN ERBAKAN; AND TANSU CILLER, THE DEPUTY PRIME AND LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE "TRUE PATH PARTY." TOGETHER, THEY COMMAND A MAJORITY IN THE 550-MEMBER TURKISH PARLIAMENT.

BUT WHILE THE IMMEDIATE CHALLENGE TO THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE BEEN OVERCOME FOLLOWING THE VOTE, MANY ANALYSTS PREDICT THE DEBATE OVER SECULARISM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TURKEY'S POLITICAL AGENDA.

AFTER SIX MONTHS IN POWER, TURKEY'S FIRST ISLAMIST-LED GOVERNMENT HAS PROVOKED WIDESPREAD FEARS AMONG THE COUNTRY'S SECULARIST MAJORITY THAT IT IS SEEKING TO ALTER THE PRO-WESTERN POLICIES LAID DOWN BY KEMAL ATATURK.

SUCH FEARS, ANALYSTS SAY, HAVE BEEN SPURRED ON BY RECENT MOVES BY THE WELFARE PARTY TO LIFT BANS ON WEARING ISLAMIC HEAD SCARFS IN STATE INSTITUTIONS AND TO ALLOW CIVIL SERVANTS TO TAKE OFF TIME FOR PRAYERS. // OPT // SECULARIST PASSIONS REACHED A FEVER PITCH EARLIER THIS MONTH AFTER A WELFARE PARTY MAYOR PUBLICLY CALLED FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF ISLAMIC RULE, OR SHARIA, IN TURKEY. BEKIR YILMAZ, THE MAYOR OF A SMALL TOWN CALLED "SINCAN" HAS SINCE BEEN ARRESTED ON CHARGES OF SEEKING TO UNDERMINE THE SECULAR STATE. // END OPT //

GULDAL OKUTUCU IS A LEADING MEMBER OF THE "REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY" -- ONE OF THE TWO OPPOSITION PARTIES PRESENTING CENSURE MOTIONS IN THE PARLIAMENT TUESDAY.

MRS. OKUTUCU SAYS UNLESS THE SECULARISTS FIGHT BACK EFFECTIVELY AGAINST THE ISLAMISTS, TURKEY COULD -- IN HER WORDS -- "BECOME ANOTHER IRAN."

MANY WELFARE PARTY OFFICIALS DISMISS SUCH VIEWS AS EXAGGERATED AND BASELESS. THEY INCLUDE BULENT ARINC, A WELFARE PARTY MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT FROM THE WESTERN PROVINCE OF MANISA. MR. ARINC SAYS ALLOWING WOMEN TO VEIL THEMSELVES IS A BASIC HUMAN RIGHT. TO PREVENT THEM FROM DOING SO, HE SAYS, IS IN DIRECT CONTRADICTION WITH DEMOCRACY.

BUT LIKE MANY OF HIS FELLOW WELFARE PARTY MEMBERS, MR. ARINC SAYS AS A MUSLIM COUNTRY, TURKEY'S FUTURE LIES WITH THE ISLAMIC WORLD.

DECADES OF PRO-WESTERN POLICIES HAVE, IN THE WORDS OF MR. ARINC, "BROUGHT TURKEY NOWHERE."

ANALYSTS SAYS THIS KIND OF TALK SENDS ALARM BELLS RINGING AMONG TURKEY'S WESTERN ALLIES, AS WELL. PRIME MINISTER ERBAKAN'S OVERTURES TO COUNTRIES SUCH AS IRAN AND LIBYA HAVE CAUSED CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UNITED STATES, WHOSE POLICIES SEEK TO ISOLATE BOTH COUNTRIES ECONOMICALLY AND DIPLOMATICALLY.

MANY TURKS BELIEVE THAT THE STAUNCHLY PRO-SECULAR TURKISH MILITARY, WHICH HAS SEIZED POWER THREE TIMES IN THE PAST, IS THE ONLY FORCE THAT CAN EFFECTIVELY CURB THE MOUNTING INFLUENCE OF THE ISLAMISTS. // OPT // INDEED, SHORTLY AFTER SINCAN'S MAYOR BEKIR YILMAZ MADE HIS CALL FOR ISLAMIC RULE, SCORES OF TANKS AND ARMORED VEHICLES THUNDERED THROUGH HIS MUNICIPALITY IN WHAT THE TURKISH MILITARY DESCRIBED AS A "ROUTINE MANEUVER." SOME POLITICAL OBSERVERS SAY THE MOVE WAS INTENDED AS CLEAR WARNING TO THE ISLAMISTS TO WATCH THEIR WORDS AND ACTIONS. // END OPT // YET, MANY OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THERE IS WIDESPREAD CONSENSUS AMONG MOST TURKS THAT THE COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS SHOULD BE SOLVED WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF DEMOCRACY AND NOT THROUGH ANOTHER MILITARY TAKEOVER.

THAT VIEW IS SHARED BY FERIDE ACAR, A WESTERN-TRAINED SOCIOLOGIST AT ANKARA'S MIDDLE EASTERN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY.

I MYSELF, AND MOST PEOPLE LIKE ME IN TURKEY, ARE VERY INSISTENT ON FINDING A DEMOCRATIC SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEMS WE ARE LIVING (EXPERIENCING). BY THAT I MEAN, THERE IS A DEFINITE NEGATIVISM TOWARDS BOTH A POSSIBLE THEOCRATIC STATE -- A SHARIA RULE -- OR A NON-DEMOCRATIC MILITARY TAKEOVER.

THERE IS A NEED TO COEXIST ... BUT THAT CO- HABITATION, I THINK, CAN ONLY BE FOUND UNDER THE ROOF OF A SECULAR STATE.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR TURKEY, MRS. ACAR SAYS, IS TO NOW PROVE THAT ISLAMISTS AND SECULARISTS CAN COEXIST WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF A DEMOCRATIC STATE. (SIGNED)
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24-Feb-97 9:45 AM EST (1445 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] U-S / NATO EXPANSION COSTS (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS TELLING THE U-S CONGRESS THE UNITED STATES WILL BEAR ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE ADDITIONAL COSTS OF ENLARGING NATO. STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS THE REDUCED U-S COST ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON SOME LARGE ASSUMPTIONS.

TEXT: EVEN BEFORE NATO IDENTIFIES ITS NEW MEMBER STATES FROM CENTRAL EUROPE, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS TELLING CONGRESS WHAT IT BELIEVES ENLARGING THE ALLIANCE WILL COST THE UNITED STATES. A DEFENSE DEPARTMENT STUDY SAYS THAT OVER A 10-YEAR PERIOD -- FROM 1999 TO THE YEAR 2009 -- AMERICAN COSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 200-MILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR ... OR TWO-BILLION DOLLARS IN ALL.

THIS STUDY IS BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE TOTAL COSTS TO ALL NATO COUNTRIES WILL BE AS LOW AS 27-BILLION DOLLARS. THE STUDY ASSUMES MUCH OF THE ADDITIONAL SPENDING WOULD FALL ON THE NEW MEMBER STATES THEMSELVES AS THEY BUILD UP (THEIR MILITARY) TO MEET NATO STANDARDS.

THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATE OF 27- TO 35-BILLION DOLLARS IS LESS THAN A PRIVATE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (RAND CORPORATION) STUDY THAT PUT THE COSTS AT 42-BILLION DOLLARS -- AND FAR LESS THAN A (U-S) CONGRESSIONAL STUDY LAST YEAR THAT ESTIMATED THE COST AT 125-BILLION DOLLARS.

THE LOWER AMERICAN COST ESTIMATE IS DESIGNED TO MEET THE CONCERNS OF CONGRESS THAT THE UNITED STATES IS SPENDING TOO MUCH MONEY ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS. ASSISTANT DEFENSE SECRETARY TED WARNER SAYS THE CONGRESSIONAL STUDY ASSUMES A DIFFERENT THREAT THAN THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DOES.

THEY PROJECTED A VERY, VERY DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT. THEY PROJECTED AN ENVIRONMENT OF CLEAR-CUT, STRONG HOSTILITY DIRECTED TOWARD NATO. I'M NOT SURE IF THEY FINGERED THEM (THE HOSTILE NATIONS) SPECIFICALLY, BUT THEY THEREFORE BUILT A FORCE PACKAGE THAT WAS OVER TWICE AS LARGE AND THEY PUT A WHOLE SET OF EXERTIONS, INCLUDING THE FORWARD STATIONING OF FORCES, THE FORWARD PRE-POSITIONING OF EQUIPMENT, BASICALLY RECONSTRUCTING DEFENSE PREPARATIONS AKIN,TO THOSE WE SAW IN GERMANY, IN WESTERN GERMANY THROUGHOUT THE COLD WAR.

THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT STUDY ASSUMES A SMALL GROUP OF UNSPECIFIED CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WOULD JOIN NATO IN THE FIRST WAVE OF ENLARGEMENT. THE LOWER COST ESTIMATES ASSUMES NATO'S EXISTING STRATEGIC CONCEPT WOULD MEET THE INCREASED DEFENSE REQUIREMENTS AND THERE WOULD BE NO NEED TO STATION SUBSTANTIAL NATO FORCES ON THE TERRITORIES OF THE NEW MEMBERS.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KORNBLUM SAYS THIS IS AN AMERICAN REPORT, BUT IS BASED ON CONSULTATIONS WITH NATO.

THIS REPORT DOES NOT PRE-JUDGE ANY OF THE ISSUES WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN DECIDED YET. IN PARTICULAR, IT DOES NOT STATE WHO WE BELIEVE THE NEW NEW MEMBERS ARE GOING TO BE. THE MILITARY AND COSTS ANALYSIS ARE BASED ON A GENERIC PACKAGE, IF YOU WILL, OF NEW ENTRANTS SINCE THERE ARE VERY CLEAR REQUIREMENTS IN NATO PROCEDURES AND THERE IS A RELATIVELY CLEAR UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT SOME OF THE TASKS ARE FOR NEW MEMBERS. IT WAS POSSIBLE TO PUT TOGETHER BOTH PROPOSALS AND COST ESTIMATES FOR A GENERIC PACKAGE OF NEW ENTRANTS THAT DOES NOT PRE-JUDGE WHO IS GOING TO JOIN THE ALLIANCE.

THE REPORT DOES NOT DISCOURAGE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS THAT POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC WILL BE AMONG THE FIRST WAVE OF MEMBERS INVITED TO JOIN AT JULY'S NATO SUMMIT MEETING IN MADRID.

THE REPORT MENTIONS THAT ANOTHER PROSPECTIVE EARLY MEMBER, ROMANIA, HAS YET TO CONCLUDE IMPORTANT TREATIES WITH UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA, ALTHOUGH IT SAYS THERE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE PROGRESS.

ALBANIA AND SLOVAKIA ARE SINGLED OUT FOR PROBLEMS CONCERNING RESPECT FOR DEMOCRATIC NORMS THAT, THE REPORT SAYS, RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DEPTH OF THEIR COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES. (SIGNED)
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24-Feb-97 4:19 PM EST (2119 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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