Voice of America, 97-02-12

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] COHEN / CYPRUS (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (PENTAGON)

[02] COHEN / DEFENSE (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (PENTAGON)

[03] CONGRESS / FOREIGN POLICY BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

[04] BULGARIA POLITICS (DEBRIEFER) BY KATYA KOSEVA (SOFIA)

[05] FRANCE IMMIGRATION (L) BY JULIAN NUNDY (PARIS)

[06] GERMANY / JOBLESS BY KYLE KING (BONN)

[07] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

[08] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[01] COHEN / CYPRUS (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (PENTAGON)

INTRO: THERE HAS BEEN A NEW EXPRESSION OF U-S CONCERN ABOUT GREEK-TURKISH TENSIONS GROWING OUT OF THE CYPRUS SITUATION. DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN SAYS BOTH SIDES NEED TO MOVE BACK FROM A POTENTIAL CONFLICT. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS MORE FROM THE PENTAGON.

TEXT: THE DEFENSE SECRETARY SAYS TENSIONS AND RHETORIC BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY OVER CYPRUS ARE IN HIS WORDS "GETTING OUT OF HAND." AND HE SAYS HE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-EMPTIVE ATTACKS BY ONE SIDE OR ANOTHER BECAUSE OF NEW WEAPONS GOING TO THE REGION.

APPEARING BEFORE THE HOUSE (OF REPRESENTATIVES) NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE, MR. COHEN CALLED CYPRUS "A REAL FLASHPOINT" REQUIRING DIPLOMACY AND ARMS RESTRAINT BY THE PARTIES.

I THINK THE TENSIONS HAVE RISEN THERE IN RECENT WEEKS AND MONTHS UNNECESSARILY. I THINK IT COULD PROVOKE A CONFLICT. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE LESS WEAPONRY GOING INTO THE REGION THAN MORE. I'M HOPEFUL THAT WE CAN PERSUADE BOTH SIDES TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT IN THIS REGARD. I THINK THE RHETORIC IS GETTING PRETTY HOT AS WELL AS THE PROSPECTS FOR ACQUIRING DIFFERENT TYPES OF (WEAPONS) SYSTEMS.

MR. COHEN SAID SPECIFICALLY THAT THE GREEK CYPRIOTS' PLAN TO ACQUIRE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE MISSILES WILL INTENSIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT. HE SAID THE ADMINISTRATION NEEDS TO MOVE QUICKLY TO REPAIR ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TURKEY -- WHICH HE CALLED A VITAL NATO MEMBER -- BUT IN A WAY THAT REASSURES ITS OTHER NATO ALLY, GREECE. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 6:03 PM EST (2303 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] COHEN / DEFENSE (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (PENTAGON)

INTRO: U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN SAYS BUDGET PRESSURE WILL FORCE THE UNITED STATES TO BE MORE RESTRICTIVE IN WHERE IT DEPLOYS TROOPS ABROAD. MR. COHEN DEFENDED THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION'S PROPOSED 265-BILLION DOLLAR DEFENSE BUDGET FOR THE COMING YEAR IN CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS (WEDNESDAY). VOA'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS.

TEXT: MR. COHEN SAYS IF THE ADMINISTRATION IS TO MEET ITS GOALS FOR DEFENSE READINESS AND WEAPONS MODERIZATION IN THE COMING YEARS -- YET STAY WITHIN ITS BUDGET PLAN -- IT MUST BE MORE SELECTIVE ABOUT WHERE IT COMMITS TROOPS ABROAD.

IN HIS FIRST CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY SINCE TAKING OFFICE LAST MONTH, THE REPUBLICAN FORMER SENATOR SAID HE SUPPORTS PRESIDENT CLINTON'S DECISION TO COMMIT U-S TROOPS TO ANOTHER 18 MONTHS OF PEACEKEEPING DUTY IN BOSNIA.

BUT NOTING THE SIX BILLION DOLLAR PRICE TAG FOR THE BOSNIAN OPERATION, HE SAID THE UNITED STATES HAS TO EXERCISE MORE RESTRAINT IN ITS OVERSEAS MILITARY ACTIVITY:

WE SHOULD NOT BE THE WORLD'S POLICEMAN. WE CAN'T BE A PRISONER OF WORLD EVENTS. WE MAY BE REQUIRED TO RESPOND TO SOME CASES WHICH DO NOT INVOLVE OUR VITAL INTERESTS. BUT WE HAVE TO BE MUCH MORE SELECTIVE, MUCH MORE RESTRAINED, IN ULTILIZING OUR MEN AND WOMEN AND COMMITTING THEM TO AREAS WHICH ARE GOING TO SERVE TO DRAIN WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AS FAR AS KEEPING OUR READINESS UP AND ALSO FUNDING THAT MODERIZATION ACCOUNT.

DESPITE THE CAUTIOUS ATTITUDE ON OVERSEAS TROOP COMMITMENTS, MR. COHEN SOUGHT TO DOWNPLAY SUGGESTIONS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS CONSIDERING A REDUCTION IN ITS 100-THOUSAND-TROOP FORWARD PRESENCE IN EAST ASIA.

THE DEFENSE SECRETARY SAID HE WAS ACCURATELY QUOTED IN ASIAN NEWS REPORTS AS SAYING EARLIER THIS MONTH THAT THE ASIAN DEPLOYMENT WOULD BE AMONG ISSUES "ON THE TABLE" IN THE PENTAGON'S QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW. BUT HE SAID ASIAN ALLIES SHOULD NOT JUMP TO THE CONCLUSION THAT A TROOP CUT IS FORTHCOMING:

WE HAVE TO HAVE A FAIRLY ROBUST FORWARD PRESENCE IN ASIA. AND I THINK OUR ASIAN ALLIES LOOK AT US VERY CLOSELY, AND OUR STATEMENTS. AND WHEN THEY SEE MY STATEMENT SAYING EVERYTHING IS ON THE TABLE, IT STARTS TO RATTLE A BIT. THEY THINK THAT TROOPS ARE COMING OUT. IT SHOULDN'T MEAN THAT. IT COULD MEAN THEY COULD BE AUGMENTED. SO NO ONE SHOULD MIS-READ ANYTHING THAT I'VE SAID TO SAY THAT BECAUSE EVERYTHING'S ON THE TABLE IT MEANS THAT WE WILL SEE A REDUCTION OF TROOPS EITHER EAST OR WEST.

DEFENDING THE OVERALL BUDGET, MR. COHEN SAID THE UNITED STATES STILL HAS "A LOT STILL TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT" WITH REGARD TO RUSSIA DESPITE THE END OF THE COLD WAR. HE CITED A COMPETITION FOR POWER IN THE KREMLIN AMID PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S CONTINUED ILLNESS, AND RECENT STATEMENTS BY DEFENSE MINISTER IGOR RODIONOV RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SECURITY OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES.

HE ALSO CITED GROWING THREATS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND THE SPREAD OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- SAYING AMERICANS SHOULD NOT BE "LULLED INTO A SENSE OF COMPLACENCY" THAT ALL IS WELL.

REPUBLICANS IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE COMMITTEES EXAMINING THE NEW BUDGET SAID THE 43-BILLION DOLLARS EARMARKED FOR NEW WEAPONS IS INSUFFICIENT, AND INDICATED THEY WOULD AGAIN SEEK TO ADD FUNDS BEYOND THE WHITE HOUSE REQUEST. SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE STROM THURMOND SAID A DECLINING TREND IN PROCUREMENT MONEY -- IF UNCHECKED -- WOULD REPRESENT A "DEMONSTRABLE DANGER" TO U-S SECURITY. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 3:58 PM EST (2058 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] CONGRESS / FOREIGN POLICY BY PAULA WOLFSON (CONGRESS)

INTRO: THERE COULD BE SOME BIG CHANGES IN THE WAY THE U-S HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HANDLES FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. THERE ARE A LOT OF FRESH FACES ON THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE, SEVERAL KEY SUBCOMMITTEES HAVE NEW LEADERS, AND THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN TONE AT PANEL PROCEEDINGS. V-O-A CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT PAULA WOLFSON TAKES A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS NEWS ANALYSIS.

TEXT: THE HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE SEEMED TO BE ON A COLLISION COURSE WITH THE PRESIDENT DURING THE LAST TWO-YEAR SESSION OF CONGRESS.

BUT THE PANEL NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCUMSPECT AND LESS CONFRONTATIONAL. AND AT THEIR FIRST BIG HEARING OF THE NEW SESSION (ON TUESDAY / FEB. 11TH), MEMBERS SEEMED TO HAVE DONE THEIR HOMEWORK -- EVEN NEWCOMERS TO THE COMMITTEE HAD QUESTIONS THAT INDICATED FAR MORE THAN JUST A PASSING INTEREST IN THE SUBJECT MATTER.

THE OCCASION WAS MADELEINE ALBRIGHT'S FIRST APPEARANCE BEFORE THE COMMITTEE AS SECRETARY OF STATE. ATTENDANCE WAS HIGH -- VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PANEL WAS THERE ON A MORNING WHEN THE HOUSE WAS IN RECESS. NOTICEABLY ABSENT FROM THE HEARING WAS ANY TALK OF ISOLATIONISM -- OF CUTTING BACK THE U-S ROLE ABROAD. INSTEAD, MEMBERS SEEMED TO BE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO AVOID FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS BUDGET. AND WHILE THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT OVER THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE THORNY ISSUE OF U-S PAYMENTS TO THE UNITED NATIONS, THE RHETORIC WAS SUBDUED. COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN BENJAMIN GILMAN STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF AMERICAN PARTICIPATION IN WORLD AFFAIRS, BUT ISSUED A VEILED WARNING.

ANY BUDGET INCREASE MUST BE CLOSELY LINKED TO AND CONDITIONED UPON REFORM. WE NEED REAL U-N REFORM, REFORMS THAT CAN APPEAR IN OUR AUTHORIZING BILL IF CONGRESS IS TO APPROVE A BILLION DOLLARS TO PAY OUR ARREARS.

THE AUTHORIZING BILL SETS GUIDELINES FOR THE OPERATIONS OF THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND RELATED AGENCIES. IN RECENT YEARS, THIS KEY PIECE OF LEGISLATION HAS BEEN BLOCKED BY PARTISAN POLITICS. BUT NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1985, THERE IS TALK ON BOTH SIDES OF A COMPROMISE BILL THAT COULD BE SIGNED INTO LAW. OF COURSE, ANY SUCH LEGISLATION WOULD NEED THE BLESSING OF JESSE HELMS -- THE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN WHO CHAIRS THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE. AND AT THE MOMENT, HE IS TALKING TOUGH. ALL THE SAME, THERE IS OPTIMISM IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. OF THE 30 OR SO LAWMAKERS WHO TOOK PART IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE MEETING WITH MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, NO ONE TALKED ABOUT CONFRONTATION OR MADE DEMANDS. AND TOP MEMBERS OF THE PANEL OFFERED SOME DISTINCT CLUES AS TO THE ISSUES THAT WILL BE A HIGH PRIORITY IN THE MONTHS TO COME.

AS EXPECTED, THERE WERE QUESTIONS AT THE HEARING ABOUT NATO EXPANSION AND THE MIDDLE EAST. BUT THE NEW LEADERS OF IMPORTANT SUBCOMMITTEES WERE THERE ... AND THEY WENT INTO SPECIFICS ON THEIR AREAS OF CONCERN.

REPUBLICAN ED ROYCE (OF CALIFORNIA) NEVER SERVED ON THE AFRICA SUBCOMMITTEE BEFORE HE WAS NAMED ITS CHAIRMAN. BUT HE DISPLAYED A KEEN INTEREST IN THE REGION, USING HIS TIME TO ASK ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR A UNITY GOVERNMENT IN ANGOLA.

MY QUESTION IS, WHAT IS THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION DOING TO ENSURE THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE A TRUE INSTRUMENT OF RECONCILIATION CAPABLE OF BUILDING A NATIONAL CONSENSUS IN ANGOLA?

AND ILIANA-ROS LEHTINEN (OF FLORIDA) LEFT NO DOUBT WHAT WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE SUBCOMMITTEE THAT DEALS WITH INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND TRADE. THE NEW CHAIR -- ONE OF THREE CUBAN-AMERICANS IN CONGRESS -- FOCUSED HER QUESTIONS ON EFFORTS BY OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION TO BLOCK ENHANCED U-S SANCTIONS ON CUBA.

I AM INTERESTED IN KNOWING YOUR POSITION REGARDING WHAT THE U-S ROLE WILL BE IN FIGHTING THAT COMPLAINT? ARE WE FORCEFULLY FIGHTING IT -- OR ARE WE LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE TO NOT FIGHT IT.

THERE IS ONE THING ON THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS COMMITTEE -- BESIDES CHAIRMAN GILMAN -- THAT HAS NOT CHANGED. MEMBERS WITH LARGE ETHNIC COMMUNITIES IN THEIR DISTRICTS ARE CONTINUING TO FIGHT HARD ON ISSUES OF INTEREST TO THEIR CONSTITUENTS. DEMOCRAT HOWARD BERMAN IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE. HIS DISTRICT IN LOS ANGELES IS HOME TO THE LARGEST IRANIAN IMMIGRANT COMMUNITY IN THE UNITED STATES.

WE ARE DEALING WITH A COUNTRY (IRAN) THAT CLEARLY HAS A PROGRAM TO DEVELOP A WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- A NUCLEAR PROGRAM -- THAT ACTIVELY SUPPORTS TERRORISM, THAT SEEKS TO TOPPLE NOT JUST THE NORMAL SUSPECTS BUT REGIMES THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD, THE MIDDLE EAST, THROUGH TERRORISM.

SOME -- BUT NOT ALL -- OF THE MOST OUTSPOKEN AND PARTISAN MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE HAVE LEFT OR WILL NO LONGER PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE. AND THEIR REPLACEMENTS ARE DIFFERENT. TWO OF THE 13 NEW LAWMAKERS ON THE (47-MEMBER) PANEL ARE COLLEGE PROFESSORS -- DEMOCRATS BILL CLEMENT AND WALTER CAPPS.

AND MAYBE IT WAS A SIGN OF THE TIMES THAT CONGRESSMAN CAPPS CLOSED THE HEARING WITH MADELEINE ALBRIGHT BY QUOTING THE GREAT WRITERS OF CZECHOSLOVAKIA WHO LED THE PEACEFUL, VELVET REVOLUTION. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 10:40 AM EST (1540 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] BULGARIA POLITICS (DEBRIEFER) BY KATYA KOSEVA (SOFIA)

INTRO: BULGARIAN PRESIDENT PETAR STOYANOV HAS NAMED SOFIA'S MAYOR, STEFAN SOFIYANSKI, TO HEAD AN INTERIM GOVERNMENT PRIOR TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN APRIL. REPORTER KATYA KOSEVA SAYS THE MAYOR IS A POLITICALLY POPULAR CHOICE.

DEBRIEFER TEXT: STEFAN SOFIYANSKY IS THE SECOND MOST POPULAR BULGARIAN POLITICIAN RIGHT NOW, AFTER PRESIDENT PETAR STOYANOV. HE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE "NEW WAVE" OF BULGARIAN POLITICIANS. HE IS RELATIVELY YOUNG. HE WAS BORN IN 1951. HE IS VERY WELL EDUCATED -- AN ECONOMIST. HE IS VERY PRAGMATIC AND COMPETENT.

HIS MOTTO IS "REASONABLE MANAGEMENT WITH A HUMAN FACE". BESIDES, HE IS ABOUT THE ONLY BULGARIAN POLITICIAN WHO HAS SHOWN PALPABLE RESULTS FROM HIS ONE-YEAR TERM AS MAYOR OF SOFIA. WHEN HE BECAME MAYOR, SOFIA WAS ABSOLUTELY IN RUINS.

HE IS ALSO ONE WHO BELIEVES IN TEAMWORK AND FOR ONE YEAR, THE PEOPLE OF SOFIA SAW A VERY COMPETENT, A VERY GOOD WORKING TEAM WHICH, DESPITE VERY HARD ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES, ACHIEVED GOOD RESULTS.
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12-Feb-97 12:11 PM EST (1711 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] FRANCE IMMIGRATION (L) BY JULIAN NUNDY (PARIS)

INTRO: FRENCH MOVIE DIRECTORS HAVE JOINED THE DEBATE ON IMMIGRATION, AND ARE URGING THEIR FELLOW CITIZENS TO DEFY LAWS THAT FORBID THEM FROM HOUSING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. JULIAN NUNDY REPORTS FROM PARIS.

TEXT: FIFTY-NINE TOP FRENCH FILM-MAKERS SAY THEY HAVE GIVEN SHELTER TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. THEY SAID IN A STATEMENT THAT THEY WILL NEVER OBEY LAWS REQUIRING THEM TO DECLARE THE PRESENCE OF FOREIGNERS IN THEIR HOMES.

ALTHOUGH THE MOVIE DIRECTORS -- INCLUDING BERTRAND TAVERNIER, WHO WON THE FRENCH EQUIVALENT OF AN ACADEMY AWARD LAST WEEK -- ARE REFERRING TO LAWS DEALING WITH ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, THEIR REAL TARGET IS NEW DRAFT LEGISLATION.

THE PROPOSED LAWS BEING DEBATED BY PARLIAMENT WOULD REQUIRE PRIVATE FRENCH CITIZENS TO REPORT ALL FOREIGNER VISITORS WHO STAY IN THEIR HOMES -- EXCEPT THE NATIONALS OF OTHER EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES -- TO THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES. ALREADY, THE MAYORS OF DOZENS OF FRENCH TOWNS HAVE SAID THEY, TOO, WILL DEFY THIS LAW AND WILL NOT ACCEPT THE REGISTRATION OF FOREIGN VISITORS BY THEIR COUNCIL OFFICERS.

THE INITIATIVE BY THE FILM MAKERS INFURIATED THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT. THE CONSERVATIVE JUSTICE MINISTER JACQUES TOUBON SAID THEIR ATTITUDE IS "ENTIRELY UNACCEPTABLE. " HE SAID THE FILM DIRECTORS HAVE NO MORE RIGHT THAN ANYONE ELSE TO DEFY THE LAW OR TO TO ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.

THE FILM DIRECTORS' STATEMENT CAME AFTER A FRENCH SCHOOL-TEACHER WAS FOUND GUILTY OF ALLOWING A FRIEND FROM ZAIRE, WHOSE FRENCH ENTRY DOCUMENTS WERE NOT IN ORDER, TO STAY AT HER HOME.

MANY SUPPORTERS OF FRANCE'S RULING CONSERVATIVE COALITION WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION LAWS BECAUSE THEY FEAR THAT THE IDEAS OF THE EXTREME-RIGHT ANTI-IMMIGRATION "NATIONAL FRONT" PARTY ARE GAINING GROUND. //OPT// THE NATIONAL FRONT TOOK ITS FOURTH TOWN COUNCIL IN VITROLLES NEAR MARSEILLE IN AN ELECTION LAST SUNDAY, MAKING THE ISSUE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE. A NATIONAL FRONT LEADER SAID THIS WEEK THAT HIS PARTY WOULD LIKE TO PROPOSE A TAX ON COMPANIES EMPLOYING FOREIGNERS. //END OPT//

THE NEW IMMIGRATION LAWS, THAT WERE DEBATED BY THE SENATE LAST WEEK, HAVE TO PASS ANOTHER READING BY THE LOWER NATIONAL ASSEMBLY BEFORE THEY CAN BECOME LAW. AFTER THAT, THERE IS ANOTHER HURDLE. IF FRANCE'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECIDES THAT ANY PART OF THE NEW LAWS INFRINGE THE CONSTITUTION, THEN THE LEGISLATION COULD BE REJECTED COMPLETELY. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 11:39 AM EST (1639 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] GERMANY / JOBLESS BY KYLE KING (BONN)

INTRO: RECORD-HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT HAS IGNITED A FIERCE NATIONAL DEBATE IN GERMANY OVER HOW BEST TO FIND JOBS FOR MORE THAN FOUR-AND-A-HALF MILLION PEOPLE. IN HIS LATEST COMMENT ON THE PROBLEM, CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL SAYS GERMANS WHO HAVE JOBS SHOULD AGREE TO FORGO WAGE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS TO HELP GIVE THE UNEMPLOYED A BETTER CHANCE OF FINDING WORK. UNION AND POLITICAL OPPOSITION LEADERS HAVE CRITICIZED THE CHANCELLOR'S PLANS, BUT AS VOA'S KYLE KING EXPLAINS, EXPERTS SAY THERE ARE NO QUICK SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM.

TEXT: AS HE EMERGES FROM THE LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICE, 25- YEAR-OLD GEORGE KRYPES HAS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ABOUT HIS SEARCH FOR A JOB.

MORE THAN A YEAR AFTER COMPLETING HIS TRAINING TO BE A PHYSICAL THERAPIST, MR. KRYPES IS STILL SEARCHING FOR WORK.

AN UNEXPECTED SURGE IN GERMANY'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO MORE THAN 12 PERCENT IN JANUARY, HAS RIVETED THE NATION'S ATTENTION ON A PROBLEM THAT AFFECTS MUCH OF EUROPE.

ECONOMISTS, LIKE RENATA HORNUNG DRAUS OF "THE ASSOCIATION OF GERMAN EMPLOYERS," SAY HIGH WAGES AND THE COST OF GENEROUS SOCIAL BENEFITS IN GERMANY HAVE FORCED MANY COMPANIES TO CUT JOBS OR INVEST ELSEWHERE.

WHAT IS SO DISCONCERTING ABOUT THE SITUATION AT THE MOMENT IS THAT THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF EMPLOYMENT HAS DECREASED. WHILE IN THE PREVIOUS YEARS WE HAVE SEEN A RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT GOING ALONG WITH A RISE IN THE NUMBER OF GAINFULLY EMPLOYED PEOPLE, AND THIS WAS DUE TO DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, TO THE CHANGING BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE, MORE PEOPLE LOOKING FOR JOBS WHO WOULD NOT HAVE REGISTERED AS UNEMPLOYED BEFORE AND SO ON -- BUT WHAT WE CAN SEE NOW IS THAT EVEN EMPLOYMENT IS GOING DOWN, IN PARALLEL WITH UNEMPLOYMENT RISING.

IN AN EFFORT TO REVERSE THE TREND, CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL'S GOVERNMENT HAS PROPOSED A SERIES OF TAX REFORMS AIMED AT IMPROVING THE PROSPECTS FOR NEW INVESTMENTS IN GERMANY. BUT, ECONOMISTS LIKE PHILIP VON WALDERDORF, FROM THE GERMAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, SAY PART OF THE PROBLEM IS WORKERS THEMSELVES HAVE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO HIGH WAGES.

... AND SO IT'S A PROCESS OF LEARNING (FOR) OUR POPULATION. THEY THINK IT'S ENOUGH TO BE GERMAN, TO EARN MORE MONEY THAN OTHERS AND WORK LESS THAN OTHERS. THAT WAS PROBABLY POSSIBLE IN THE LAST TEN YEARS, BUT NOW IT'S FINISHED. AND SO WE HAVE TO LEARN THAT WE ARE IN A WORLDWIDE MARKET AND WE HAVE OTHER COUNTRIES THAT ARE AS GOOD AS WE ARE. AND WE HAVE TO WORK MORE AND NOT LESS. AND SO I DON'T SEE A QUICK SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM.

TO CREATE NEW JOBS, MR. VON WALDERDORF SAYS GERMANY NEEDS TO CUT LABOR COSTS -- WHICH ARE ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE UNITED STATES AND 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN FRANCE. BUT CUTTING WAGES IS A PAINFUL AND DIFFICULT STEP.

CHANCELLOR KOHL'S RECENT SUGGESTION THAT GERMANS WITH JOBS AGREE TO ACCEPT LITTLE OR NO WAGE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS WAS MET WITH SCORN BY UNION LEADERS AND MEMBERS OF THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION, WHO HAVE RIDICULED MR. KOHL'S OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF A 50 PERCENT CUT IN UNEMPLOYMENT BY THE YEAR 2000.

OFFICIALS ARE HOPING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN GERMANY'S ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE, COMBINED WITH CUTS IN SOCIAL AND WAGE COSTS, WILL HELP IMPROVE THE EMPLOYMENT PICTURE.

BECAUSE OF A BACK INJURY, MR. KRYPES HAS BEEN FORBIDDEN FROM WORKING IN HIS CHOSEN PROFESSION (PHYSICAL THERAPY) AND EMPLOYMENT AGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO TELL HIM WHEN HE MIGHT BE ABLE TO CHANGE PROFESSIONS.

NEVERTHELESS, ECONOMISTS LIKE RENATA HORNUNG DRAUS SAY THE COUNTRY IS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD INTEGRATING YOUNG PEOPLE INTO THE WORK FORCE.

WE ARE TRYING TO SUPPORT THE INTEGRATION OF PEOPLE INTO THE LABOR MARKET -- ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN GERMANY, THERE ARE NOW SOME 180-THOUSAND PEOPLE WHO PARTICIPATE IN PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT SCHEMES, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO FACILITATE THEIR PARTICIPATION INTO THE LABOR MARKET. OF COURSE THE PROBLEM IS THESE SCHEMES ARE VERY COSTLY AND THEY INCREASE THE PUBLIC DEFICIT IN GERMANY OVERALL, WHICH HAS A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE GERMAN ECONOMY.

ECONOMISTS SAY FOR NOW THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO STEER A VERY FINE LINE (MANEUVER VERY CAREFULLY) TO TRY TO HELP CREATE NEW JOBS WITHOUT INCREASING SPENDING SO MUCH THAT IT PUTS A FURTHER DAMPER ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 11:03 AM EST (1603 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

INTRO: STOCK MARKETS IN WESTERN EUROPE WERE MOSTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THE U-S DOLLAR HIT A 34-MONTH HIGH AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK. FOR THE FIGURES, HERE'S PAUL FRANCUCH IN OUR LONDON OFFICE.

TEXT: THE HIGH-FLYING DOLLAR CONTINUED TO SOAR IN VALUE AGAINST THE MARK, AND THAT HELPED BOOST CONFIDENCE AMONG GERMAN INVESTORS IN GERMAN COMPANIES. IN TURN, THE "DAX 30" INDEX OF GERMAN STOCKS IN FRANKFURT CLOSED UP 28-AND-A-HALF POINTS -- A NEW RECORD FOR THAT EXCHANGE. INVESTORS IN FRANCE WERE IN A BUYING MOOD AS WELL WEDNESDAY, SENDING THE "CAC 40" INDEX IN PARIS UP 17-AND-A-QUARTER POINTS AT THE CLOSE. HERE IN LONDON, STOCKS TRACKED BY THE "FINANCIAL TIMES" 100 INDEX CLOSED UNCHANGED FROM TUESDAY.

THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH HAS TAKEN THE LUSTER OUT OF GOLD AS THE PRICE OF THAT PRECIOUS METAL CONTINUES TO FALL. AT ONE POINT WEDNESDAY, GOLD WAS SELLING IN LONDON AT ITS LOWEST PRICE IN NEARLY FOUR YEARS. IT REGAINED SOME VALUE IN AFTERNOON TRADING, WHERE THE PRICE WAS FIXED AT 337-DOLLARS-70 CENTS AN OUNCE. (SIGNED)
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12-Feb-97 1:48 PM EST (1848 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE PRESIDENTIAL CHANGES IN ECUADOR IS A FAVORITE TOPIC OF U-S EDITORIALS WRITERS THIS WEDNESDAY. OTHER TOPICS UNDER DISCUSSION INCLUDE THE BAD ECONOMIC NEWS FROM GERMANY; THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN SERBIA; HOW THE U-N'S NEW SECRETARY GENERAL IS DOING; AND THE GROWING KREMLIN INTRIGUE AS BORIS YELTSIN'S HEALTH REMAINS IN DOUBT. NOW, HERE WITH A CLOSER LOOK IS __________________ AND TODAY'S EDITORIALS DIGEST.

TEXT: THE POLITICAL TURMOIL IN ECUADOR HAS NOT GONE UNNOTICED BY EDITORIAL WRITERS IN THIS COUNTRY, BUT THEY HAVE HAD A PROBLEM KEEPING UP WITH THE STORY. NOW THAT THINGS APPEAR TO BE SETTLING DOWN, THERE ARE SEVERAL COMMENTARIES, SUCH AS THIS IN TODAY'S ORLANDO SENTINEL, WHICH CHIDES NORTH AMERICANS FOR NOT PAYING ENOUGH ATTENTION.

VOICE: "A POLITICAL CRISIS IN "ECUADOR DURING THE PAST MONTH BARELY REGISTERED ON MOST AMERICANS' RADAR SCREENS [CONSCIOUSNESS]. THAT SHOULD HAVE REVERBERATED THROUGHOUT THE AMERICAS, AS IT DID IN LATIN AMERICA. WHEN GOVERNMENT INSTABILITY SHAKES DEMOCRACY IN ONE COUNTRY OF THE REGION, IT CAN AFFECT THE OTHERS. THAT'S PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAS WORKED HARD TO ENCOURAGE AN IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT: ALL NATIONS OF THIS HEMISPHERE - - EXCEPT CUBA - - HAVE DEMOCRATIC FORMS OF GOVERNMENT. FORTUNATELY, IN ECUADOR'S CASE, THE PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY IS ENDING QUICKLY."

TEXT: COMPARING THE STORY TO A COMIC OPERA, THE WASHINGTON TIMES WARNS IT DOES, DEFINITELY, HAVE A SERIOUS SIDE.

VOICE: "[OPT] ECUADOR'S POLITICAL CRISIS ..... AT FIRST GLANCE RESEMBLED NOTHING SO MUCH AS OPERA BOUFFE. ONE OF THE MAIN CHARACTERS IS CALLED 'THE CRAZY ONE,' PRESIDENT ABDALA BUCARAM. 'EL LOCO' WAS DEPOSED LAST WEEK, BUT REMAINED UNREPENTANT AND UNDETERRED ..... OUR STARRING LADY IS ROSALIA ARTEAGA, A POLITICALLY MODERATE VICE PRESIDENT WHO DECIDED THE TIME HAD COME FOR A WOMAN TO RUN THE SHOW. AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE DASHING PRINCE, WITH THE EVEN MORE DASHING NAME, FABIAN ALARCON, WHO HAS ALSO CLAIMED THE PRESIDENCY AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF ECUADOR'S 82-MEMBER CONGRESS. THE SUPPORTING CAST INCLUDES THE COUNTRY'S MILITARY, EVER WATCHFUL AND EVER POWERFUL. BUT [END OPT] BEYOND THE COMEDY, ECUADOR IS FACING A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS OF THE FIRST MAGNITUDE. AND THE NATION'S RESPONSE IS A FAR CRY FROM COMIC OPERA."

TEXT: LASTLY, THE WASHINGTON POST NOTES SADLY:

VOICE: "ECUADOR'S TRIBULATIONS WOULD BE FUNNY IF THEY WEREN'T SO SAD. HERE IS A COUNTRY WITH PROFOUND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STRAINS THAT FINDS ITSELF DISTRACTED BY POLITICAL CARNIVAL AND [IS] SLOW TO FOCUS ON ITS WOES. .... ECUADOR HAS A SHORT BREATHING SPELL UNTIL IT CONSTITUTIONALLY ELECTS A NEW PRESIDENT. IT NEEDS LEADERSHIP THAT CAN MAKE THE COUNTRY LEVEL WITH REALITY. THE UNITED STATES CAN ENCOURAGE IT ALONG THIS TRACK - - AND ENCOURAGE ITS FIDELITY TO DEMOCRATIC PROCEDURES - - BUT FINALLY ECUADOR WILL BE FACING THE TOUGH QUESTIONS ALONE."

TEXT: TURNING TO EUROPE, UNSETTLING ECONOMIC NEWS FROM GERMANY WHERE UNEMPLOYMENT HAS TOPPED 12 PERCENT. THAT PROMPTS TODAY'S WALL STREET JOURNAL TO WRITE THAT "THE LAST TIME GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT TOPPED 12 PERCENT ADOLPH HITLER ROSE TO POWER." THE JOURNAL GOES ON TO WRITE:

VOICE: "UNLIKE ... 1933, HOWEVER, THE GERMAN ECONOMY IS NOT IN RECESSION. IT IS SIMPLY SUFFERING FROM SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE IMPACT ON HIRING OF HIGH LABOR COSTS. BOTH CAN BE MITIGATED BY TAX REFORM IF THE GOVERNMENT EVER GETS AROUND TO IT. [OPT] MUCH OF THAT 12 PERCENT [UNEMPLOYED] IS WHAT ECONOMISTS CALL STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT, WHICH MEANS THERE IS LITTLE SUCCOR TO BE FOUND IN SHORT-TERM PALLIATIVES SUCH AS A STRONGER DOLLAR OR MARGINALLY HIGHER ECONOMIC GROWTH. ..... GERMANY'S FREE DEMOCRATS UNDERSTAND THAT THE ONLY WAY THESE PROBLEMS CAN BE RELIEVED IS THROUGH REDUCING THE TAX BURDEN ON PRODUCTION. BUT CHANCELLOR KOHL HAS BEEN A LATE AND UNSTEADY CONVERT. ..... THE CHANCELLOR SHOULD ACT NOW, BEFORE THAT 12 PERCENT GOES HIGHER." [END OPT]

TEXT: TODAY'S PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER IS TALKING ABOUT THE PRO-DEMOCRACY DEMONSTRATIONS IN SERBIA, WHICH RECENTLY FORCED PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC TO HAVE PARLIAMENT REINSTATE THE REMAINING LOCAL ELECTION OPPOSITION VICTORIES HE EARLIER NULLIFIED.

VOICE: "IT'S TIME FOR THE WEST TO COME TO THE AID OF SERBIA. ..... NOW IS THE MOMENT FOR THE WEST TO MOUNT A CAMPAIGN TO AID DEMOCRATS IN SERBIA THE WAY IT HAS DONE FOR YEARS IN OTHER EX-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES IN EASTERN EUROPE. SERBIA NEVER GOT THIS KIND OF ASSISTANCE BECAUSE OF THE BALKAN WARS AND BECAUSE OF SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE OPPOSITION'S DEMOCRATIC CREDENTIALS. THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION, TOGETHER WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, SHOULD CONDITION ELIMINATION OF THE WEST'S LAST ECONOMIC SANCTIONS - - AND ANY FUTURE ECONOMIC AID TO SERBIA - - ON THE HOLDING OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN 1997."

TEXT: [OPT] THE NEW YORK TIMES HAS WORDS OF ENCOURAGEMENT FOR THE NEW U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN, ON THE JOB BARELY SIX WEEKS AND ALREADY DRAWING THE IRE OF SOME IN WASHINGTON FOR NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH.

VOICE: "KOFI ANNAN .....FACES A HERCULEAN TASK. HE MUST REFOCUS AND RESTRUCTURE THE U-N FOR A WORLD NO LONGER DEFINED BY THE IDEOLOGICAL CONFLICT OF THE COLD WAR. IT WILL TAKE TIME TO MAKE CHANGES. ..... MR. ANNAN, AN EXPERIENCED MAN OF PROVEN MANAGERIAL ABILITY, IS UP TO THE JOB. ..... BUT HE MUST SET THE PACE AND DIRECTION OF CHANGE WITHOUT BADGERING FROM WASHINGTON. THE MORE BEHOLDEN HE SEEMS TO THE UNITED STATES, THE LESS HE WILL ACCOMPLISH IN AN INSTITUTION OF 185 MEMBER STATES." [END OPT]

TEXT: TURNING TO THE ISSUE OF BORIS YELTSIN'S HEALTH AND THE DIFFICULTIES HIS PROLONGED ILLNESSES ARE CAUSING IN THE KREMLIN, THE WASHINGTON POST COMMENTS:

VOICE: "RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S PROLONGED ILLNESS IS SPARKING TALK OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN MOSCOW. THE SCHEME IS TO AVOID AN ELECTION IN THE EVENT OF HIS DEATH, ALLOWING THOSE NOW IN OR NEAR POWER TO RETAIN THEIR COMFORTABLE POSITIONS. SOME AMERICANS ARE ENAMORED OF THIS PROPOSAL AS A WAY TO PROMOTE CONTINUITY. IN FACT, THOUGH, IT'S A BAD IDEA THAT WOULD UNDERMINE DEMOCRACY AND, VERY LIKELY, STABILITY AS WELL."

TEXT: [OPT] BACK AT HOME, NORTH CAROLINA SENATOR JESSE HELMS WHO IS HOLDING UP SENATE RATIFICATION OF THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS TREATY GETS SOME EDITORIAL SUPPORT FROM THE NEW YORK POST TODAY.

VOICE: "WE KNOW IT'S CONSIDERED MANDATORY IN SOME CIRCLES TO MOCK THE POLITICAL JUDGMENT OF SENATOR JESSE HELMS ..... WHO CHAIRS THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE. BUT [SENATOR] HELMS' VIEWS HAVE FREQUENTLY PROVED MORE SOUND THAN THE CONVENTIONAL-BELTWAY [I.E. WASHINGTON] WISDOM. THE LATEST CASE IN POINT IS THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION (CWC) ..... ..... IN ADDITION TO BEING UNVERIFIABLE AND UNENFORCEABLE, THE CWC WILL OPEN THE DOOR WIDE TO INDUSTRIAL SPYING IN THE U-S. .... THERE'S NO REASON WHY [SENATOR] HELMS' FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE SHOULD NOT ENCOURAGE A SERIOUS DEBATE ABOUT THE TREATY'S IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY." [END OPT]

TEXT: ON THAT NOTE WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF COMMENTARY FROM THE EDITORIAL PAGES OF TODAY'S U-S PRESS.
NEB/ANG/GE
12-Feb-97 11:31 AM EST (1631 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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