Voice of America, 96-10-31

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] EDITORIAL: ARMENIAN ELECTION

[03] EASTERN EUROPE ENTERPRISE (L ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

[04] EURO STOCKS (S ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

[05] GERMANY / KOHL BY KYLE KING (BONN)

[06] NO ELECTION MONITORS FOR SERBIA BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

[07] THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION: FORTY YEARS LATER - SHORT #1

[08] U-S-ALBANIA (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[09] U-S/BELARUS REFERENDUM BY JOAN BEECHER (WASHINGTON)

[10] U-S-KURD REFUGEES (L ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[11] U-S / KURDS (L ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[12] YUGO ELECTION PREVIEW BY BARRY WOOD (PRAGUE)

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: [OPT] THIS IS ALL HALLOWS EVE, THE DAY BEFORE ALL SAINTS DAY IN THE CHRISTIAN CALENDAR AND BETTER KNOWN IN THE UNITED STATES AS HALLOWEEN. ACCORDING TO HALLOWEEN MYTH, THE SPIRITS OF THE DEAD RETURN TO WALK THE EARTH ON THIS DAY, IN WHICH CASE THEY COULD BE READING SOME OF THE EDITORIALS REVIEWED IN TODAY'S DAILY PAPERS. [END OPT] THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE U-S EDITORIAL PAGES, WITH VARIOUS COMMENTARIES ON THE EXCESSES OF FUND RAISING AND WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE SAYING. MANY PAPERS ARE DEVOTING ALMOST ALL THEIR EDITORIAL SPACE TO RECOMMENDATIONS FOR LOCAL CANDIDATES AND ISSUES. OF INTERNATIONAL INTEREST IS A DISCUSSION OF AMERICA'S ROLE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS; THE GROWING CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA; THE HEBRON WITHDRAWAL ISSUE; HELMET KOHL, THE INDESTRUCTIBLE GERMAN CHANCELLOR; AND A NEW PRISONER OF CONSCIENCE IN CHINA. NOW, HERE WITH A CLOSER LOOK AND A QUOTE OR TWO, IS ____________________ AND TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: THE BOSTON GLOBE HAS THE FIRST OF A THREE-PART EDITORIAL SERIES ON CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM, CALLING THE PRESENT SITUATION OF CORPORATE GIVING TO BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS "A POLITICAL SCANDAL."

VOICE: "... A NEW BARRIER THREATENS THE VERY NOTION OF ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE... THE CORROSIVE INFLUENCE OF MONEY IN POLITICS -- AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY SCANDAL. THE COUNTRY NEEDS TO FIND A WAY ... TO LIMIT THE ABILITY OF CORPORATIONS, SUPER-WEALTHY INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZED GROUPS TO WIELD MORE INFLUENCE THAN ORDINARY CITIZENS. OTHERWISE THE PEOPLE'S FRANCHISE WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY DEVALUED. "

TEXT: FOR ITS PART, THE NEW YORK TIMES' LEAD EDITORIAL CRITICIZES REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE BOB DOLE AND HIS CAMPAIGNING FOR A STATE INITIATIVE IN CALIFORNIA THAT WOULD END AFFIRMATIVE-ACTION PROGRAMS DESIGNED TO HELP MINORITIES IN THE JOB MARKET. SAYS THE TIMES:

VOICE: "A CERTAIN SADNESS ATTACHES TO BOB DOLE'S LAST DITCH [FINAL] EFFORTS TO NARROW THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. IN HIS SCRAMBLE FOR VOTES, MR. DOLE IS REWRITING HISTORY -- HIS OWN AND THE NATIONS'S -- AND REPUDIATING WHAT HAD BEEN A STRONG RECORD ON CIVIL RIGHTS DURING MOST OF HIS THREE DECADES IN CONGRESS. IT IS NOT A PLEASANT SIGHT. ADDRESSING AN OVERWHELMINGLY WHITE ... AUDIENCE IN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK, MR. DOLE DELIVERED A STRONG ENDORSEMENT OF THE CALIFORNIA BALLOT INITIATIVE ... TO BAR AFFIRMATIVE-ACTION PROGRAMS BY STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS... THIS WAS NOT THE BOB DOLE THE COUNTRY CAME TO KNOW IN THE SENATE."

TEXT: AND FINALLY ON POLITICS, THE SUN IN BALTIMORE DECLARES THAT THE U-S SENATE IS "UP FOR GRABS," MEANING IT MIGHT CHANGE FROM REPUBLICAN TO DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.

VOICE: "ON ELECTION NIGHT, WATCH FOR SENATE RACES NATIONWIDE TO BE THE WILD CARD [THE UNPREDICTABLE PORTIONS OF THE VOTE]. WHILE THE MAKEUP OF THE HOUSE MAY REFLECT THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE (IE. A CLINTON VICTORY OF MORE THAN 10 PERCENT COULD SWING CONTROL TO THE DEMOCRATS), THE SENATE IS A LAW UNTO ITSELF... SENATE CANDIDATES HAVE REPUTATIONS AND IDIOSYNCRASIES THAT SEPARATE THEM FROM NATIONAL VOTING TRENDS... WITH 34 SEATS IN CONTENTION, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN."

TEXT: TODAY'S LOS ANGELES TIMES BEMOANS THE FACT THAT BUDGET CUTS HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED U-S INFLUENCE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

VOICE: "IN THE LAST DOZEN YEARS, SECRETARY OF STATE WARREN CHRISTOPHER SAYS, CONGRESS HAS CUT SPENDING ON INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS BY 51 PER-CENT, ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION... UNLIKE FARM PROGRAMS, DEFENSE CONTRACTS, VETERANS' BENEFITS OR HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION, [INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SPENDING] HAS NEVER HAD A POWERFUL CONSTITUENCY LOBBYING IN ITS FAVOR. ADD TO THAT THE IMPERATIVES OF BUDGET CUTTING, PLUS THE PAROCHIALISM OF A GROWING NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, AND THE RESULT IS THE BLEAK PICTURE THAT CHRISTOPHER SKETCHES. THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL NATION IS ALMOST WILLFULLY ABANDONING ITS OPPORTUNITIES TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE AND DETER CRISES."

TEXT: CONCERN ABOUT THE INCREASING VIOLENCE BETWEEN HUTUS, TUTSIS AND THE MILITARY FORCES OF ZAIRE IS ADDRESSED IN TODAY'S MIAMI HERALD, WHICH WRITES:

VOICE: "...THE UNITED STATES, EUROPE, AND THE BORDERING EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES MUST BRING TOGETHER LEADERS OF THE WARRING FACTIONS TO A SUMMIT MEETING, WHERE THE RIVALS MUST BE PERSUADED -- PRESSURED, EVEN -- INTO A CEASE-FIRE, BEGINNING WITH RWANDA, ZAIRE, AND THE ZAIARIAN TUTSIS... NO ONE COUNTRY CAN BE CHARGED WITH SOLVING THE CRISES IN EASTERN ZAIRE. IT WILL REQUIRE JOINT LEADERSHIP, COORDINATED EFFORTS, AND THE POLITICAL WILL TO MAKE SOLUTIONS HOLD."

TEXT: CONCERNING A LESS VOLATILE TROUBLESPOT, TODAY'S SUN IN BALTIMORE FAULTS BOTH ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS FOR THEIR FAILURE TO REACH AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE OF HEBRON ON THE WEST BANK.

VOICE: "THE REAL DANGER IN THE STALEMATE IN TALKS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY AIMED AT GETTING THE PEACE PROCESS STARTED ANEW HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY MICHAEL EITAN, HEAD OF THE LIKUD BLOC IN THE KNESSET [PARLIAMENT] SUPPORTING PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. MR. EITAN WARNED OVER ISRAELI RADIO THIS WEEK THAT EXTREMISTS AMONG THE 400 JEWISH SETTLERS IN HEBRON COULD PROVOKE A BLOODBATH... JUST AS MR. ARAFAT SHOULD NOT ALLOW ENEMIES IN HIS RANKS TO DERAIL HIS PROGRESS TOWARD PEACE, NEITHER SHOULD MR. NETANYAHU ALLOW A FEW SETTLERS TO DICTATE HIS COURSE."

TEXT: THE NEW YORK TIMES IS AGAIN ACCUSING CHINA OF SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS FOLLOWING THE TRIAL AND PRISON SENTENCE FOR PRO-DEMOCRACY DISSIDENT WANG DAN.

VOICE: "BY SENTENCING THE MOST PROMINENT DEMOCRATIC ACTIVIST OF THE TIANANMEN SQUARE GENERATION TO A NEW ELEVEN-YEAR-PRISON SENTENCE YESTERDAY, CHINA'S AUTHORITARIAN GOVERNMENT ONCE AGAIN DEMONSTRATED ITS INTOLERANCE OF PEACEFUL POLITICAL DISSENT AND ITS CONTEMPT FOR THE UNITED STATES. IT IS INCREASINGLY HARD TO SEE HOW WASHINGTON CAN MOVE TOWARD CLOSER RELATIONS WITH A REGIME THAT SO BRAZENLY ABUSES HUMAN RIGHTS."

TEXT: LASTLY, IN A SALUTE TO THE STURDY GERMAN CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL, WHOM TODAY OVERTAKES THE NATION'S MODERN RECORD FOR POLITICAL LONGEVITY SET BY GERMANY'S FIRST POST-WAR CHANCELLOR KONRAD ADENAUER, TODAY'S WASHINGTON TIMES SAYS:

VOICE: "HELMUT KOHL ... WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS THE MAN WHO ENGINEERED THE UNIFICATION OF THE TWO GERMANIES -- AND WITH IT THE UNIFICATION OF EUROPE -- AFTER 45 YEARS OF COLD WAR DIVISION... IN DOING SO, HE IRREVOCABLY ALTERED THE SECURITY LANDSCAPE OF EUROPE FOR THE BETTER, NOT ONLY FROM GERMANY'S POINT OF VIEW BUT FROM THE ATLANTICIST PERSPECTIVE AS WELL."

TEXT: WITH THAT CELEBRATORY NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF OPINION FROM SOME OF TODAY'S U-S PRESS.
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31-Oct-96 11:13 AM EST (1613 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] EDITORIAL: ARMENIAN ELECTION

ANNCR: THE VOICE OF AMERICA PRESENTS DIFFERING POINTS OF VIEW ON A WIDE VARIETY OF ISSUES. NEXT, AN EDITORIAL EXPRESSING THE POLICIES OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT.

VOICE:

ARMENIA HELD ITS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 22ND. ACCORDING TO THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT, PRESIDENT LEVON TER-PETROSSIAN WON RE-ELECTION WITH NEARLY FIFTY-TWO PERCENT OF THE VOTE. OPPOSITION CANDIDATE VAZGEN MANUKYAN RECEIVED FORTY-ONE PERCENT. ONE CANDIDATE NEEDED TO WIN AT LEAST FIFTY PERCENT TO AVOID A RUN-OFF ELECTION.

INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, INCLUDING THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE, REPORTED IRREGULARITIES IN BALLOTING AND VOTE TABULATION, PARTICULARLY IN YEREVAN, THE CAPITAL. THE UNITED STATES HAS CALLED ON THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT TO FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERTS TO ADDRESS THESE FLAWS AND BUILD CONFIDENCE IN ARMENIA'S ELECTORAL PROCESS.

THE U.S. HAS CONDEMNED THE VIOLENCE BY SOME OPPOSITION MEMBERS AGAINST THE ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ON SEPTEMBER 25TH. SUCH VIOLENCE ONLY SERVES TO POLARIZE THE ARMENIAN PEOPLE. AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS INCUMBENT UPON THE GOVERNMENT TO PREVENT EXCESSIVE USE OF FORCE BY SECURITY FORCES AND TO ENSURE RESPECT FOR DUE PROCESS OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS, INCLUDING CONTINUED ACCESS TO PRISONERS BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS. TWENTY-ONE PEOPLE ARE FACING CRIMINAL CHARGES FOR ALLEGED COMPLICITY IN THE VIOLENCE FOLLOWING THE ELECTION. SEVERAL REPORTEDLY REMAIN IN CUSTODY. THE U.S. HAS URGED THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT EITHER TO CHARGE THE DETAINEES FORMALLY OR RELEASE THEM. TRIALS OF THOSE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE SEPTEMBER 25TH VIOLENCE SHOULD BE OPEN AND FAIR.

THE U.S. HAS WELCOMED ANNOUNCEMENTS BY THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION TO REDRESS GRIEVANCES ABOUT ELECTION RESULTS IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT. THE U.S. WELCOMES STEPS BY THE GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION TOWARD BUILDING AN OPEN POLITICAL PROCESS. THE U.S. URGES ARMENIANS TO FORGE A POLITICAL DIALOGUE ACROSS PARTY LINES. THE U.S. REMAINS COMMITTED TO HELPING ARMENIA BUILD AN INDEPENDENT, DEMOCRATIC AND PROSPEROUS STATE AT PEACE WITH ITS NEIGHBORS.

ANNCR:

THAT WAS AN EDITORIAL EXPRESSING THE POLICIES OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE HEARD ON THIS ISSUE, PLEASE WRITE TO EDITORIALS, VOICE OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, D-C, 20547, U-S-A. YOU MAY ALSO SEND US A FAX AT (202) 619-1043. YOUR COMMENTS MAY BE USED ON THE AIR.
31-Oct-96 1:10 PM EST (1810 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] EASTERN EUROPE ENTERPRISE (L ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

INTRO: A SURVEY OF 11 COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE SHOWS THERE ARE NOW THREE-POINT-FOUR-MILLION PRIVATE BUSINESSES IN THESE FORMER COMMUNIST COUNTRIES. JOHN FRASER IN BRUSSELS REPORTS THE STUDY ALSO SHOWS THAT MANY OF THE BUSINESSES ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME.

TEXT: THIS NEW STUDY COVERS ALBANIA, BULGARIA, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, ESTONIA, HUNGARY, LATVIA, LITHUANIA, POLAND, ROMANIA, SLOVAKIA, AND SLOVENIA.

IT SHOWS THAT SIX YEARS AFTER THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL, NEARLY THREE-AND-ONE-HALF-MILLION FIRMS ARE OPERATING UNDER MARKET ECONOMY CONDITIONS IN THE 11 FORMER COMMUNIST COUNTRIES WHICH ARE AT THE HEAD OF THE LIST FOR JOINING THE EUROPEAN UNION.

THE NUMBER OF SUCH FIRMS -- PER ONE-THOUSAND INHABITANTS -- IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FIGURE FOR THE E-U AS A WHOLE, WITH 31 IN EASTERN EUROPE AND 43 IN THE E-U. HOWEVER, THE FIGURES DO VARY WIDELY, WITH THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY ABOVE THE E-U AVERAGE. THE BALTIC STATES AND THE BALKAN COUNTRIES -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BULGARIA -- HAVE RELATIVELY LOW NUMBERS OF FIRMS WHEN COMPARED TO POPULATION SIZE.

EUROPEAN UNION OFFICIALS SAY THAT THE SCALE OF BUSINESS CREATION IS, IN GENERAL, ENCOURAGING AND SUGGESTS THAT THE MOVE TO MARKET ECONOMIES HAS BEEN A SPEEDY ONE.

THE SURVEY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE AND SIZE OF SUCH FIRMS IS COMPARABLE TO COMPANIES IN THE WEST.

MANY FIRMS HAVE BEEN STARTED FROM SCRATCH, THANKS TO A WHOLE NEW GENERATION OF ENTREPRENEURS. AROUND 10 PERCENT OF THE JOBS CREATED IN THESE ENTERPRISES IN EASTERN EUROPE ARE DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN CAPITAL.

ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE, THE REPORT SHOWS MANY OF THESE NEW FIRMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE ARE HAVING SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES IN SURVIVING, AS THEY ARE SMALL AND ARE VULNERABLE

FOR EVERY 100 ACTIVE FIRMS, THERE ARE ANOTHER 18 WHICH ARE DORMANT, AND 55 WHICH CLAIM THEY ARE ECONOMICALLY DEAD.

AMONG THE ACTIVE ENTERPRISES, NEARLY TWO-THIRDS SAY THEY ARE HAVING SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES IN SURVIVING OR DEVELOPING, WHILE OVER HALF COMPLAIN OF PRODUCTION DIFFICULTIES. MEANWHILE, FOUR OUT OF TEN OF SUCH FIRMS CLAIM DIFFICULTIES WITH DEMAND BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF CUSTOMERS WITH STRONG PURCHASING POWER, AND ALSO BECAUSE OF STIFF COMPETITION. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 11:16 AM EST (1616 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] EURO STOCKS (S ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

INTRO: SHARE PRICES WERE MIXED IN TRADING THURSDAY ON MAJOR EUROPEAN MARKETS. V-O-A'S JACK HUIZENGA HAS THE CLOSING FIGURES FROM OUR BUREAU IN LONDON.

TEXT: STOCK MARKETS WERE UP IN BOTH LONDON AND PARIS, BUT DOWN IN FRANKFURT. TRADERS SAID INVESTORS WERE STILL UNSETTLED BY A SURPRISE INTEREST RATE INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN BRITAIN. IN LONDON, THE FINANCIAL TIMES FOOTSIE-100 INDEX ENDED THE DAY UP MORE THAN 15 POINTS, AT JUST ABOVE THREE-THOUSAND-979. IN PARIS, THE CAC-40 INDEX ROSE SHARPLY, ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF ONE PERCENT OF THE FRENCH MARKET'S VALUE. AND IN FRANKFURT, THE GERMAN MARKET'S DAX-30 INDEX ENDED THE DAY DOWN ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF ONE PERCENT, FINISHING AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR WEEKS.

ON EUROPEAN CURRENCY MARKETS, THE U-S DOLLAR ROSE IN VALUE AGAINST BOTH THE BRITISH POUND AND THE GERMAN MARK. BUT THE DOLLAR LOST VALUE AGAINST THE JAPANESE YEN. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 2:22 PM EST (1922 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] GERMANY / KOHL BY KYLE KING (BONN)

INTRO: GERMAN LEADER HELMUT KOHL HAS PASSED ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT MILESTONE IN HIS CAREER -- THIS TIME BECOMING THE COUNTRY'S LONGEST-SERVING POST-WAR CHANCELLOR. VOA'S KYLE KING REPORTS THE MAN WHO WAS ONCE SEEN AS A BUMBLING PROVINCIAL POLITICIAN HAS BECOME THE TOWERING STATESMAN OF EUROPE.

TEXT: HELMUT KOHL, THE MAN NOW SOMETIMES CALLED THE "ETERNAL CHANCELLOR," WAS WRAPPING UP A VISIT TO ASIA AS HE SURPASSED KONRAD ADENAUER'S RECORD OF 14-YEARS AND ONE MONTH IN OFFICE. THE 66-YEAR-OLD MR. KOHL HAS PLAYED DOWN THE RECORD, SAYING HE LOVES LIFE TOO MUCH TO GET UP EVERY MORNING AND COUNT THE DAYS LIKE AN ARMY RECRUIT.

COMMENTATORS SAY PART OF THE SECRET TO THE SUCCESS OF THE TALL AND BULKY CHANCELLOR IS HIS EVEN TEMPERAMENT AND HIS SKILL AS A CAMPAIGNER. MR. KOHL HAS NOW WON FOUR ELECTIONS SINCE HE WON THE TOP JOB FROM HELMUT SCHMIDT BACK IN 1982.

ANGELIKA VOLLE, THE EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF GERMANY'S LEADING FOREIGN AFFAIRS JOURNAL, SAYS MR. KOHL HAS SINCE THEN MANAGED TO TAKE CONTROL OF POLICY OUT OF THE HANDS OF BUREAUCRATS.

WHETHER IT IS EUROPE, THE FRANCO-GERMAN RELATIONSHIP, EVEN THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES, OF COURSE THERE IS COORDINATION WITH THE FOREIGN OFFICE BUT HE HAS SUCCEEDED IN TAKING IT UNDER HIS OWN CONTROL.

ALTHOUGH OFTEN CRITICIZED AS A DULL, PROVINCIAL POLITICIAN DURING HIS FIRST YEARS IN OFFICE, ANALYSTS SAY THE COLLAPSE OF THE BERLIN WALL IN 1989 BROUGHT OUT THE STATESMAN IN MR. KOHL.

HAVING SUCCESSFULLY MANAGED GERMAN UNIFICATION IN THE NEXT YEAR, THE CHANCELLOR HAS NOW SET HIS SIGHTS ON EUROPEAN INTEGRATION. ANGELIKA VOLLE SAYS THE CHANCELLOR HAS NOW BECOME EUROPE'S LEADING ADVOCATE OF THE CAUSE.

HE HAS CERTAINLY IMPRESSED HIS MARK ON EUROPEAN POLICIES. THERE IS NOBODY WHO IS SUCH A PROPAGATOR OF EUROPEAN UNION AS IS THE CHANCELLOR, AND I SUPPOSE IF HE EVER LEAVES THE POLITICAL STAGE, SUPPORT FOR EUROPEAN UNION WILL STILL BE THERE, BUT WITH A YOUNGER GENERATION IN POWER THEY WILL CERTAINLY HAVE MANY MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS WHICH HE HAS GIVEN IN THE PAST.

ANALYSTS SAY MR. KOHL WILL FACE DIFFICULT DOMESTIC ISSUES IN THE COMING YEARS, INCLUDING 10 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT, A STAGNANT ECONOMY AND THE RISING COSTS OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS.

ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT SAID IF HE PLANS TO RUN FOR A FIFTH TERM IN 1998, MANY ANALYSTS SAY THEY EXPECT HIM TO. IF HE IS SUCCESSFUL, HIS NEXT MAJOR MILESTONE COULD BE THE RECORD OF 19 YEARS IN OFFICE, SET BY OTTO VON BISMARK, GERMANY'S 19TH CENTURY IRON CHANCELLOR. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 11:06 AM EST (1606 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] NO ELECTION MONITORS FOR SERBIA BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: SUNDAY (11-3) IS ELECTION DAY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA -- NOW SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO. PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC'S SOCIALIST COALITION APPEARS HEADED FOR VICTORY IN MUNICIPAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. OPPOSITION CANDIDATES HAVE THREATENED TO BOYCOTT THE ELECTION TO PROTEST MR. MILOSEVIC'S NEAR TOTAL CONTROL OF THE MEDIA AND HIS REFUSAL TO ALLOW OPPOSITION MONITORS AT POLLING STATIONS. AND THE ABSENCE OF INTERNATIONAL AND INDEPENDENT ELECTION OBSERVERS HAS SPARKED ACCUSATIONS THAT WESTERN GOVERNMENTS HAVE MADE A DEAL WITH MR. MILOSEVIC. V-O-A'S PAMELA TAYLOR REPORTS:

TEXT: INTERNATIONAL MONITORING GROUPS SAY THEY ARE NOT SENDING OBSERVERS TO YUGOSLAVIA SUNDAY ON THE GROUNDS THEY HAVE NOT BEEN GIVEN ENOUGH TIME BY THE BELGRADE GOVERNMENT TO PREPARE. MELISSA FLEMING IS SPOKESWOMAN FOR THE VIENNA-BASED ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE -- OR O-S-C-E:

WE RELY ON INVITATIONS FROM OUR HOST COUNTRIES AND I'M AFRAID THIS INVITATION REACHED US RATHER LATE, ONLY ON THE 17TH OCTOBER SO WE WERE NOT ABLE DURING THAT SHORT TIME TO MOBILIZE A GROUP THAT COULD CONSTITUTE A VIABLE ELECTION OBSERVATION FOR US.

MS. FLEMING SAYS O-S-C-E, WHICH IS THE MAIN INTERNATIONAL MONITORING GROUP, WILL HOWEVER HAVE TWO OBSERVERS WHO WILL ISSUE A REPORT ON THE ELECTION PROCESS. U-S BASED GROUPS WHICH HAVE BEEN ACTIVE IN BALKAN ELECTIONS INCLUDE THE INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE (I-R-I) AND THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE (N-D-I) BOTH OF WHICH ECHOED THE COMPLAINT THAT THEIR INVITATIONS WERE RECEIVED TOO LATE. SUSAN ATWOOD OF N-D-I:

IF WE HAVE NOT WORKED IN A COUNTRY PRIOR TO AN ELECTION WE DO NOT OBSERVE AN ELECTION. WE CONSIDER THAT ANY STEALING OF AN ELECTION WILL BE CONDUCTED WELL BEFORE THE ELECTION ITSELF AND NOT ON ELECTION DAY. WE NEED TO BE THERE DURING THE CAMPAIGN PERIOD AND LOOK AT ISSUES LIKE ACCESS TO THE MEDIA, ACCESS TO CAMPAIGN FINANCING AND FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATION FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTIES. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AT THIS POINT IN SERBIA -- THIS EXISTS.

BUT THESE REASONS MAY NOT SATISFY OPPOSITION CANDIDATES WHO HAVE INTERPRETED THE ABSENCE OF INDEPENDENT ELECTION MONITORS TO MEAN THERE IS SOME KIND OF OUTSIDE AGREEMENT TO ALLOW PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC TO REMAIN IN POWER FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT JANUSZ BUGAISKY OF THE WASHINGTON-BASED CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES DENIES THERE IS A CONSPIRACY.

I THINK IT'S A BIT OF AN EXAGGERATION, I DON'T BELIEVE ANY KIND OF A DEAL HAS BEEN STRUCK WITH MILOSEVIC OVER THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS. I THINK THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS WHICH PLAY HERE. FIRST OF ALL, THERE'S A CALCULATON THAT THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS IN RUMP YUGOSLAVIA THIS WEEKEND ARE NOT THAT CRITICAL IN TERMS OF THE FUTURE. THE SERB PRESIDENCY AND THE SERB GOVERNMENT ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN RUMP YUGOSLAVIA AND THE SERB ELELCTIONS AREN'T UNTIL NEXT YEAR.

MR. BUGAISKY AGREES HOWEVER, THAT WESTERN NATIONS MAY NOT BE PUSHING MR. MILOSEVIC RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY WANT TO AVOID INSTABILITY IN SERBIA WHICH MIGHT AFFECT THE SITUATION IN BOSNIA. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 4:07 PM EST (2107 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION: FORTY YEARS LATER - SHORT #1

ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.

THIS WEEK, "THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION: FORTY YEARS LATER." HERE IS YOUR HOST, -------. HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.

FORTY YEARS AGO, THE HUNGARIAN PEOPLE REVOLTED. IN THE SPACE OF A DAY, THE SOVIET-BACKED COMMUNIST REGIME COLLAPSED. FOR FIVE DAYS, SOVIET OCCUPATION TROOPS TRIED TO DEFEAT THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION, AND THEN DECLARED A CEASE-FIRE. BUT ON NOVEMBER 4TH, OVER TWO THOUSAND SOVIET TANKS POURED INTO BUDAPEST AND CRUSHED THE NEW REFORM GOVERNMENT. AS U.S. PRESIDENT DWIGHT EISENHOWER SAID AT THE TIME, "BUDAPEST IS NO LONGER MERELY THE NAME OF A CITY. HENCEFORTH IT IS A NEW AND SHINING SYMBOL OF MAN'S YEARNING FOR FREEDOM."

FRANK RONALDS HAS BEEN A SPECIALIST IN COMMUNIST AFFAIRS FOR THE VOICE OF AMERICA FOR MANY YEARS AND WAS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF RADIO LIBERTY. HE SAYS THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION DISPELLED THE MYTH THAT COMMUNISM HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE. RONALDS: "I RECALL A CONVERSATION I HAD SOME TIME BACK WITH MILOVAN DJILAS, THE FAMOUS YUGOSLAV COMMUNIST DISSIDENT AND AUTHOR OF THE BOOK THE NEW CLASS. AND HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION ENDED IN FAILURE, IT WAS HISTORICALLY VERY IMPORTANT. BECAUSE, HE SAID, UP UNTIL THEN, THE RECEIVED WISDOM WAS THAT A COMMUNIST REGIME COULD NOT BE OVERTHROWN FROM WITHIN." HOST: PAUL GOBLE IS DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY. HE SAYS THAT SOVIET LEADER NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV'S ADMISSION OF SOVIET CRIMES IN 1956 HELPED INSPIRE THE REVOLUTION IN HUNGARY. GOBLE: "THIS LED TO A LOSS OF SELF-CONFIDENCE AMONG MANY PARTY MEMBERS WHO HAD ALWAYS BELIEVED THAT THERE WAS A TRUTH [IN THE COMMUNIST PARTY]. ONCE IT WAS REALIZED THAT THIS ALL HAD BEEN A LIE, I THINK MANY OF THE COMMUNIST OFFICIALS THROUGHOUT EASTERN EUROPE BEGAN TO LOSE THE SELF-CONFIDENCE NECESSARY TO CARRY ON THE SOVIET-RUSSIAN OCCUPATION OF EASTERN EUROPE. AND THEREFORE, WHEN THE POPULATIONS BEGAN RESISTING IN POLAND AND IN HUNGARY, THEY WERE UNWILLING TO DO THE THINGS THEMSELVES THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE BEEN TWO OR THREE YEARS EARLIER." HOST: CHARLES FENYVESI, A REPORTER FOR U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, PARTICIPATED IN THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION. HE SAYS THE RELEASE OF HUNGARIAN POLITICAL PRISONSERS BY IMRE NAGY ENERGIZED THE PEOPLE TO REVOLT. FENYVESI: "ALL OF A SUDDEN, YOU HAD TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE LOOSE, TALKING TO THEIR FRIENDS, TALKING TO THEIR FAMILIES. AND IF YOU WENT AROUND A PEACEFUL STREET SUCH AS OURS IN BUDAPEST, YOU SAW THE LIGHTS WERE ON AFTER TWO O'CLOCK, THREE O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING, BECAUSE EVERYBODY WAS LISTENING TO THESE PEOPLE. I MEAN, THEY CAME BACK FROM HELL. THEY CAME BACK. NOBODY THOUGHT THEY COULD COME BACK. AND OF COURSE, THE STORIES THEY TOLD US AND THE WAY THEY LOOKED CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE REVOLUTION." HOST: PAUL GOBLE OF RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY SAYS THAT OVERCOMING COMMUNISM'S LEGACY IN EASTERN EUROPE IS TAKING LONGER THAN MANY PEOPLE PREDICTED. FOR ON THE LINE, THIS IS ----------.

ANNCR: YOU'VE BEEN LISTENING TO ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS IS ----------.
31-Oct-96 3:02 PM EST (2002 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] U-S-ALBANIA (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE UNITED STATES HAS EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WITH ALBANIA'S CONDUCT OF LOCAL ELECTIONS. V-O-A'S RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT, THERE ARE STILL SOME AMERICAN CONCERNS ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN ALBANIA.

TEXT: THE STATE DEPARTMENT IS URGING ALBANIA TO BUILD ON THE SUCCESS OF THE LOCAL ELECTIONS BY DEVELOPING A CONSTITUTION AND BY HOLDING NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN NICHOLAS BURNS SAYS THE LOCAL ELECTIONS,WON BY THE RULING DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT WERE COMPLETED ON SUNDAY,WERE SUFFICIENTLY DEMOCRATIC TO BE ACCEPTED AS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE OF ALBANIA BUT THE UNITED STATES HAS CONCERNS.

AMERICAN AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERNS HOWEVER ABOUT VOTING IRREGULARITIES WITH THE CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION. WE URGE THE COMMISSION AND THE ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT TO FULLY ADRRESSTHESE CONCERNS OF OURS AND WE LOOK TO THE ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT TO BUILD ON THESE LOCAL ELECTIONS BY ESTABLISHING AN OPEN AND INCLUSIVE POLITICAL PROCESS AND BY DEVELOPING A CONSTITUTION.

THE UNITED STATES WANTS ALBANIA TO HOLD A REFERENDUM AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS UNDER THE NEW CONSTITUTION. THE UNITED STATES CRITICIZED SERIOUS FLAWS IN ALBANIA'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS EARLIER THIS YEAR THAT WERE ALSO WON BY THE RULING DEMOCRATIC PARTY.(SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 5:20 PM EST (2220 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[09] U-S/BELARUS REFERENDUM BY JOAN BEECHER (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE CONFRONTATION BETWEEN PRESIDENT ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO OF BELARUS AND THE BELARUSIAN PARLIAMENT IS INTENSIFYING, AS THE SCHEDULED NOVEMBER 24 REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENTIAL POWERS APPROACHES. THIS WEEK MR. LUKASHENKO THREATENED TO DISSOLVE THE PARLIAMENT, IF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES THE REFERENDUM INVALID. THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT IS NOT SIDING WITH EITHER THE PRESIDENT OR THE PARLIAMENT, ACCORDING TO A TOP STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL. BUT AS VOA ANALYST JOAN BEECHER REPORTS, IT HAS SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE REFERENDUM ITSELF.

TEXT: ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO, THE FLAMBOYANT PRESIDENT OF BELARUS, WAS ONCE DUBBED THE "BELARUSIAN ZHIRINOVSKY." ELECTED PRESIDENT IN A SURPRISE LANDSLIDE VICTORY TWO YEARS AGO, MR. LUKASHENKO STILL SEEMS TO BE POPULAR WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC, DESPITE A COLLAPSING ECONOMY. BUT HE HAS LONG BEEN AT DAGGERS DRAWN (IN DISAGREEMENT) WITH THE OTHER BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT -- WITH THE PARLIAMENT, THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT, AND EVEN THE CENTRAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION.

THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE ONGOING BATTLE BETEWEEN PRESIDENT AND PARLIAMENT BEGAN THIS SUMMER, WHEN MR. LUKASHENKO DEMANDED THAT PARLIAMENT ENDORSE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS STRENGTHENING THE POWERS OF THE PRESIDENCY. PARLIAMENT RESPONDED BY PROPOSING ITS OWN CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS, WHICH WOULD ABOLISH THE PRESIDENCY ALTOGETHER. BOTH DRAFTS ARE TO BE VOTED ON AT THE NOVEMBER 24TH REFERENDUM.

LEADING LEGISLATORS AND CONSTITUTIONAL COURT JUSTICES HAVE ACCUSED MR. LUKASHENKO OF TRYING TO SET UP A TOTALITARIAN DICTATORSHIP, WHILE HE HAS ACCUSED HIS DOMESTIC OPPONENTS OF PREPARING AN ARMED COUP AGAINST HIM. MR. LUKASHENKO HAS EVEN IMPLIED, ON OCCASION, THAT FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, NOTABLY THE UNITED STATES, ARE ALSO IN LEAGUE AGAINST HIM.

BUT THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT IS EMPHATICALLY NOT TAKING SIDES IN THE DISPUTE BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND THE PARLIAMENT OF BELARUS, ACCORDING TO JACK SEGAL, THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S DIRECTOR FOR UKRAINIAN, BELARUSIAN, AND MOLDOVAN AFFAIRS.

SPEAKING AT AN O-S-C-E BRIEFING ON BELARUS IN WASHINGTON TUESDAY, MR. SEGAL ALSO STRESSED THAT THE UNITED STATES IS NOT TRYING TO DICTATE WHAT FORM OF GOVERNMENT OR ECONOMY, OR WHAT LEADERS, THE PEOPLE OF BELARUS SHOULD CHOOSE.

WHAT THE UNITED STATES DOES OBJECT TO, ACCORDING TO MR. SEGAL, IS THAT THE LUKASHENKO GOVERNMENT HAS REFUSED TO ALLOW COMPETING POINTS OF VIEW ON THE UPCOMING REFERENDUM TO BE HEARD ON THE STATE-CONTROLLED AIRWAVES. HE SAID THE UNITED STATES HAD SOUGHT IN MANY WAYS TO CONVINCE IT TO OPEN THE DEBATE -- IN VAIN.

IT REMAINS OUR VIEW THAT ANY REFERENDUM CONDUCTED IN A VIRTUAL NEWS BLACKOUT WOULD NOT BE CREDIBLE, AND WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS.

THE DETERIORATION OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN BELARUS IS OF GREAT CONCERN TO THE UNITED STATES, MR. SEGAL SAID. SO IS THE GOVERNMENT'S ATTEMPT TO STOP, AND REVERSE, MARKET REFORM.

DOES THIS MEAN WE SHOULD TURN OUR BACKS ON BELARUS? WE THINK NOT. ISOLATION IS THE SLOWEST AND MOST PAINFUL WAY TO CONVINCE ANOTHER COUNTRY TO CHANGE ITS APPROACH.

IT IS TRUE THAT BELARUS IS NOW MORE ISOLATED THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO: THE WORLD BANK AND THE I-M-F HAVE SUSPENDED THEIR LOANS TO BELARUS, AND THE U-S CONGRESS HAS BARRED U-S ECONOMIC AID DIRECTLY TO THE COUNTRY'S GOVERNMENT. BUT MR. SEGAL SAID THAT THE UNITED STATES SEEKS TO MAINTAIN FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH BELARUS, AND TO PROVIDE IT WITH ADVICE, COMMENTS, AND ASSISTANCE THAT MAY HELP SHOW IT THE WAY TOWARDS A BETTER FUTURE. [SIGNED]
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31-Oct-96 3:45 PM EST (2045 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[10] U-S-KURD REFUGEES (L ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS IT WILL KEEP THE SITUATION UNDER REVIEW BUT FOR NOW THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT PLAN TO EVACUATE FOUR TO FIVE THOUSAND KURDISH RELIEF WORKERS FROM NORTHERN IRAQ. RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT.

TEXT: NO FINAL DECISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE BUT WITH THE CEASEFIRE HOLDING BETWEEN THE KURDISH FACTIONS, THE UNITED STATES HAS DECIDED THE KURDS WORKING FOR NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS IN NORTHERN IRAQ ARE IN NO DANGER. THEREFORE, SPOKESMAN NICHOLAS BURNS TOLD REPORTERS, THERE IS NO NEED FOR THE UNITED STATES TO GIVE THEM ASYLUM.

I SAW SOME OF THE COMMENTS IN THE PAPERS BY SOME OF THE PEOPLE IN THE NON-GOVERNMENTAL COMMUNITY WHO ASSERT THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE UNDER THE THREAT OF IMMINENT PERSECUTION. WE DON'T BELIEVE THAT TO BE THE CASE. WE DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS ANY EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THAT CLAIM.

THE SPOKESMAN SAYS ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE ROBERT PELLETREAU HAS RECEIVED ASSURANCES FROM MASOUD BARZANI AND JALAL TALABANI, THE KURDISH FACTION LEADERS, THAT THE RELIEF WORKERS WOULD BE PROTECTED.

THE UNITED STATES DID EVACUATE 2,140 KURDS AND THEIR DEPENDENTS THAT WORKED DIRECTLY FOR THE U-S GOVERNMENT IN SEPTEMBER WHEN IRAQI TROOPS ENTERED NORTHERN IRAQ. THESE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TAKEN TO THE ISLAND OF GUAM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ARE BEING PROCESSED FOR ENTRY INTO THE UNITED STATES. A FURTHER 600 KURDS HAVE ALSO BEEN EVACUATED TO GUAM 10 DAYS AGO BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES FELT THEIR POLITICAL ACTIVITIES MADE THEM VULNERABLE TO PERSECUTION BY IRAQ.

THE PRIVATE RELIEF GROUPS IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE REJECTED THE ADMINISTRATION'S CHARACTERIZATION OF THEIR KURDISH EMPLOYEES AS BEING NOT IN DANGER. THEY CHARGE THE U-S GOVERNMENT IS THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO GETTING THEIR PEOPLE OUT.

THE STATE DEPARTMENT INSISTS NORTHERN IRAQ IS NOW CALM AND THE THOUSANDS OF PRIVATE RELIEF WORKERS FACE NO IMMINENT DANGER. IF THAT SITUATION CHANGES, THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS IT WILL WILL RECONSIDER THAT JUDGMENT. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 4:15 PM EST (2115 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[11] U-S / KURDS (L ONLY) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: WARRING KURDISH FACTIONS IN NORTHERN IRAQ HAVE AGREED TO MAINTAIN

AND STRENGTHEN THEIR CURRENT CEASEFIRE. AMBERIN ZAMAN IN ANKARA REPORTS

THE KURDISH GROUPS ALSO AGREED TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A FORCE TO MONITOR

THE CEASEFIRE.

TEXT: THE AGREEMENT WAS ANNOUNCED AFTER TWO DAYS OF TALKS INVOLVING THE

TWO KURDISH GROUPS, U-S MEDIATORS, OFFICIALS FROM TURKEY AND BRITAIN, AND

REPRESENTATIVES OF THE TURKISH SPEAKING TURKOMAN MINORITY IN IRAQ.

IN A STATEMENT AT THE END OF THE TALKS, U-S ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE

ROBERT PELLETREAU REPORTED THE KURDISH GROUPS SAY THEIR AGREEMENT SHOULD

NOT IN ANY WAY PREJUDICE THE TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF THE STATE OF IRAQ.

WITH REGARD TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEASEFIRE, MR. PELLETREAU SAID A

MONITORING FORCE WILL BE SET UP, COMPOSED OF WHAT HE TERMED NEUTRAL IRAQI

KURDS AND OTHERS.

THE FORCE IS TO REPORT TO A SUPERVISORY BODY BASED IN THE TURKISH CAPITAL,

ANKARA. THE SUPERVISORY BODY WILL HAVE REPRESENTATIVES OF MASSOUD

BARZANI'S KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY, JALAL TALABANI'S PATRIOTIC UNION OF

KURDISTAN, THE UNITED STATES, BRITAIN, TURKEY, AND THE PEACE MONITORING

FORCE.

THE PARTIES ALSO DECIDED IN PRINCIPLE TO CONTINUE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THE

ESTABLISHMENT OF A TEMPORARY LOCAL ADMINISTRATION IN NORTHERN IRAQ WITH THE

PARTICIPATION OF ALL PARTIES AND ETHNIC GROUPS, INCLUDING THE TURKOMAN AND

ASSYRIAN COMMUNITIES.

THE ISSUE OF THE SHARING OF CUSTOMS REVENUES AND OTHER TAXES -- ONE OF THE

MAIN SOURCES OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE KURDISH PARTIES -- WAS ALSO

DISCUSSED. THE SIDES AGREED THESE SHOULD BE COLLECTED IN A PUBLIC MANNER

AND BE USED FOR THE COMMON GOOD OF ALL PEOPLE IN THE REGION.

IT WAS ALSO AGREED NEW ELECTIONS WOULD BE HELD IN THE REGION WITH THE

PARTICIPATION OF ALL THE ETHNIC GROUPS IN NORTHERN IRAQ. BUT NO TIMETABLE

WAS ANNOUNCED.

IN AN OBLIQUE REFERENCE TO THE ALLEGED PRESENCE OF IRAQI AND IRANIAN FORCES

IN NORTHERN IRAQ, MR, PELLETREAU SAID THE PARTIES HAD AGREED NOT TO SEEK

THE INTERVENTION OF ANY OTHER FORCES WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE THE CONFLICT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF FIGHTING BETWEEN THE RIVAL KURDISH GROUPS ERUPTED IN

AUGUST WHEN MASSOUD BARZANI CALLED IN IRAQI TROOPS TO HELP SEIZE CONTROL OF

THE ENTIRE ENCLAVE. BUT HIS PARTY LOST CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE TERRITORY

EARLIER THIS MONTH.

MR. PELLETREAU SAID THE SIDES HAD ALSO TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION TURKEY'S

SECURITY INTERESTS. THEY AGREED TO ENSURE TURKEY'S SEPARATIST KURDISTAN

WORKERS PARTY NOT USE IRAQI TERRITORY TO LAUNCH CROSS BORDER ATTACKS

AGAINST TURKISH SECURITY TARGETS.

ANALYSTS SAY THE LEAD ROLE TAKEN BY TURKEY DURING THE TALKS AND THE

INCLUSION FOR THE FIRST TIME OF THE TURKOMENS UNDERSCORED ANKARA'S

INCREASED POLITICAL INFLUENCE IN THE REGION. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 2:08 PM EST (1908 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[12] YUGO ELECTION PREVIEW BY BARRY WOOD (PRAGUE)

INTRO: SERB-LED YUGOSLAVIA -- SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO -- HOLDS FEDERAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SUNDAY. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS THE FEDERAL ELECTIONS, AS WELL AS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN SERBIA AND ELECTIONS FOR PARLIAMENT IN MONTENEGRO, ARE THE FIRST EXPRESSION OF VOTER SENTIMENT IN YUGOSLAVIA SINCE THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORD ONE YEAR AGO.

TEXT: SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC'S LEFT WING COALITION APPEARS SET TO WIN SUNDAY'S MUNICIPAL AND FEDERAL ELECTIONS IN SERBIA.

A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY GIVES THE THREE-PARTY RULING COALITION 45 PERCENT VOTER SUPPORT. A NEWLY FORMED BLOC OF FIVE OPPOSITION PARTIES IS SAID TO HAVE 30 PERCENT SUPPORT. ONE POLITICAL ANALYST IN BELGRADE SAYS THE ONLY QUESTION IS THE SIZE OF THE RULING COALITION'S MAJORITY.

VOTERS IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO WILL BE VOTING FOR 138 FEDERAL PARLIAMENTARY SEATS. UNDER YUGOSLAVIA'S 1992 CONSTITUTION, 108 OF THE SEATS ARE SERBIAN AND 30 MONTENEGRIN.

MONTENEGRO, WITH A POPULATION OF ONLY 600-THOUSAND, IS ALSO VOTING FOR AN 85-SEAT REPUBLICAN PARLIAMENT. THE RULING DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SOCIALISTS APPEARS HEADED FOR VICTORY.

CLOSELY ALLIGNED WITH MR. MILOSEVIC'S FORMER COMMUNISTS IN SERBIA, THE MONTENEGRIN SOCIALISTS HAVE WARNED THE OPPOSITION THAT THEY FACE POSSIBLE LEGAL ACTION FOR SAYING THE RULING PARTY IS CORRUPT. THE OPPOSITION NATIONAL UNITY COALITION DREW THOUSANDS TO A RALLY IN THE MONTENEGRIN CAPITAL ON WEDNESDAY.

POLITICAL OBSERVERS REGARD THE YUGOSLAV FEDERAL ELECTIONS AS A TEST RUN FOR NEXT YEAR'S IMPORTANT SERBIAN ELECTIONS.

THE DIRE CONDITION OF THE ECONOMY IS A PRINCIPAL ISSUE. A PROMISED POST-SANCTIONS BOOM HAS NOT OCCURRED. INFLATION EXCEEDS 100 PERCENT AND THE ECONOMY IS NOT GROWING.

BUT THE OPPOSITION HAS BEEN INTIMIDATED AND A WAVE OF STRIKES THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN HARSHLY TREATED BY THE AUTHORITIES. TAXI AND TRANSPORT WORKERS WERE ON STRIKE IN BELGRADE, PROTESTING UNPAID WAGES AND LOW LIVING STANDARDS. LAWYERS HAVE ALSO BEEN ON STRIKE. STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA HAS GIVEN LITTLE ATTENTION TO THE UNREST.

POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY SUNDAY'S ELECTION COULD PROVIDE CLUES AS TO HOW PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC PLANS TO MAINTAIN HIS GRIP ON POWER AFTER HIS SERBIAN PRESIDENTIAL TERM EXPIRES LATE NEXT YEAR. CONSTITUTIONALLY HE IS NOT ABLE TO SUCCEED HIMSELF.

OBSERVERS SUGGEST THAT IF THE RULING COALITION DOES WELL, MR. MILOSEVIC MAY ATTEMPT TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION TO TRANSFER POWER TO THE NOW LARGELY CEREMONIAL POST OF FEDERAL PRESIDENT. THE FEDERAL CONSTITUTION CAN BE CHANGED ONLY BY A THREE-QUARTERS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT.

IN THE CAMPAIGN, THE RULING FORMER COMMUNISTS HAVE PORTRAYED MR. MILOSEVIC AS A PEACE MAKER, RESPONSIBLE FOR AN END TO THE WAR IN BOSNIA. OTHER ISSUES ARE REGIONAL AUTONOMY AND HUMAN RIGHTS FOR ALBANIANS IN KOSOVO.

INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS WILL NOT BE MONITORING THE YUGOSLAV ELECTIONS, SAYING THEY WERE NOT GIVEN ENOUGH TIME TO PREPARE. OPPOSITION CHANCES SUFFERED A SETBACK IN EARLY OCTOBER WHEN THE POPULAR FORMER HEAD OF THE YUGOSLAV CENTRAL BANK, DRAGOSLAV AVRAMOVIC, ABRUPTLY RESIGNED FROM HEADING THE FIVE-PARTY TOGETHER BLOC. (SIGNED)
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31-Oct-96 2:30 PM EST (1930 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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