Subject: TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD (1) BY ED WARNER/WASHINGTON
Topic: voa
From: yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis)
 
DATE=4/19/95
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-20249
TITLE=TURKEY'S ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD  (1)
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  TURKISH PRIME MINISTER TANCU CILLER HAS BEEN IN 
WASHINGTON THIS WEEK TO MEET PRESIDENT CLINTON AND SHE HAS FACED 
QUESTIONS ABOUT TURKEY'S INCURSION INTO NORTHERN IRAQ IN PURSUIT 
OF THE GUERRILLA FORCES KNOWN AS THE P-K-K.  THE PRIME MINISTER 
HAS SAID TURKISH TROOPS WILL BE WITHDRAWN BUT HAS GIVEN  NO  FIRM
DATE.  THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTED THE RAID BUT IS ANXIOUS FOR IT
TO BE CONCLUDED.  ON MOST OTHER MATTERS, THE TWO LEADERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO AGREE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE FUTURE OF IRAQ. 
IN THIS REPORT (THE FIRST OF TWO), VOA'S ED WARNER TALKS TO TWO 
ANALYSTS ABOUT TURKEY'S INTERNATIONAL ROLE.

TEXT:  TURKEY'S LOCATION PRESENTS IT, PERHAPS, WITH THE MOST 
GEO-POLITICAL PROBLEMS OF ANY NATION ON EARTH.  IT IS BORDERED BY
EIGHT COUNTRIES, BUT ONLY BULGARIA IS VIEWED FROM ANKARA AS BOTH 
STABLE AND FRIENDLY.  THE OTHER NEIGHBORS PRESENT A VARIETY OF 
THREATS, RANGING FROM MERELY ANNOYING TO QUITE DEADLY.

SABRI SAYARI IS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF TURKISH 
STUDIES IN WASHINGTON AND PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AT 
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY:

                     // SAYARI ACTUALITY //

         CERTAINLY WHEN YOU'RE NEXT DOOR, LET'S SAY, TO THREE 
         COUNTRIES -- IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, ALL OF WHICH ARE ON THE 
         STATE DEPARTMENT'S LIST OF STATE SPONSORS OF 
         INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM -- OBVIOUSLY YOU ARE LOOKING AT 
         A VERY CRITICAL SITUATION.  PLUS THERE IS INSTABILITY 
         ALONG THE BORDER SUCH AS ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN, 
         INSTABILITY IN THE BALKANS, NONE OF WHICH IS REALLY OF 
         TURKEY'S MAKING, BUT TURKEY HAS TO RESPOND TO THESE 
         DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES.

                          // END ACT //

TURKEY IS RESPONDING, SAYS SOLI OZEL, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF 
MIDDLE EAST STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED 
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON.  PRIME MINISTER TANCU 
CILLER, FOR EXAMPLE, RECENTLY SIGNED AN OIL AGREEMENT WITH 
AZERBAIJAN WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES TURKEY'S SHARE OF 
AZERBAIJANI PRODUCTION PLANS: 

                      // OZEL ACTUALITY //

         TURKEY IS A SUPPORTER OF THE AZERI REGIME AND THEIR 
         INDEPENDENCE AND TRYING TO MEDIATE BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN 
         AND ARMENIA IN A VERY CONSTRUCTIVE WAY.  THE PROBLEM, OF
         COURSE, FOR TURKEY AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE WORLD IS 
         YOU JUST DON'T KNOW WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE GOING TO STOP
         BECAUSE IF THEY WANT TO RENEGOTIATE THE CONVENTIONAL 
         ARMS AGREEMENT, THAT OPENS AN ENTIRE CAN OF WORMS, 
         (NUMEROUS ISSUES TO RESOLVE) AND THEY MIGHT WANT TO HAVE
         MORE TROOPS ON THE TURKISH BORDER IN ARMENIA AND 
         WHATEVER.  THAT WOULD CREATE A SITUATION THAT NOBODY HAD
         FORESEEN THREE YEARS AGO.

                         // END ACT // 

THERE'S NO IMMEDIATE SIGN OF RUSSIAN PROVOCATIONS, SAYS PROFESSOR
OZEL, BUT WITH RISING RUSSIAN NATIONALISM ISLAMIC TURKEY COULD 
APPEAR TO BE A POTENTIAL ADVERSARY.  TURKEY ALWAYS HAS LIVED IN A
ROUGH NEIGHBORHOOD, HE ADDS, AND IT IS EVEN ROUGHER IN THE POST 
COLD WAR ERA. 

TURKEY'S BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS NORTHERN IRAQ, WHICH 
TURKISH TROOPS RECENTLY ENTERED TO ATTACK GUERRILLA FORCES OF THE
KURDISH WORKERS PARTY, AN OUTLAWED INSURGENT GROUP, ALSO KNOWN AS
THE P-K-K.  PROFESSOR SAYARI THINKS THE CROSS-BORDER RAID HAS 
BEEN RELATIVELY SUCCESSFUL, BUT THE AREA REMAINS AN INVITATION TO
ANARCHY:

                     // SAYARI ACTUALITY //

         TURKEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE POWER VACUUM WHICH EXISTS 
         IN NORTHERN IRAQ TO BE FILLED IN SOME FASHION.  I THINK 
         WHAT TURKEY IS SEEKING TO DO IS REACH SOME KIND OF AN 
         AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHERN IRAQI KURDISH GROUPS SO THAT
         THEY WOULD HAVE THE BORDER AREA NEAR TURKEY UNDER 
         CONTROL.  SINCE THE GULF WAR, THE VARIOUS IRAQI KURDISH 
         FORCES HAVE  NOT  MANAGED TO REACH AN AGREEMENT AND 
         ESTABLISH A PRESENCE IN PARTS OF THIS TERRITORY, WHICH 
         HAS ENABLED THE P-K-K TO USE THIS AREA AS A MEANS FOR 
         LOGISTICAL SUPPORT AND SO FORTH.  SO FOR TURKEY THE 
         INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS IN IRAQ CREATES A MAJOR PROBLEM.

                         // END ACT // 

TURKEY IS INVOLVED IN A MOST COMPLICATED ARRANGEMENT.  FROM BASES
INSIDE TURKEY U-S PLANES PROTECT KURDS IN NORTHERN IRAQ FROM 
SADDAM HUSSEIN.  AT THE SAME TIME, THE KURDISH P-K-K, OPERATES AT
WILL OUT OF NORTHERN IRAQ TO CARRY OUT ARMED REBELLION IN 
SOUTHEAST TURKEY.   IRAQ HAS NO CONTROL OF ITS BORDER THERE. 

PROFESOR OZEL SAYS TURKEY IS FAR MORE INVOLVED IN IRAQ THAN IT 
WANTS TO BE.  WITH THE P-K-K ON THE RUN, HE BELIEVES IT IS TIME 
FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION TO TURKEY'S KURDISH PROBLEM.  THE 
DEVASTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS CAUSED SOME REFUGEE FLIGHT TO 
TURKEY'S ALREADY OVERCROWDED CITIES, MAKING THE CONFLICT AN EVEN 
MORE COSTLY BURDEN FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY.  (SIGNED)

NEB/EW/CF



19-Apr-95 1:14 PM EDT (1714 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America