Topic: voa Subject: LOOKING TOWARD KOSOVO AND MACEDONIA by PAMELA TAYLOR/WASHINGTON From: Yanni@ix.netcom.com (Ioannis Bousnakis) Topic: voa Fdate: 95-04-03 DATE=3/4/95 TYPE=CLOSEUP NUMBER=4-08234 TITLE=LOOKING TOWARD KOSOVO AND MACEDONIA BYLINE=PAMELA TAYLOR TELEPHONE=619-1101 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES CONTENT= // VOICER AND INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM S-O-D // INTRO: ONLY WEEKS AGO BALKAN AFFAIRS SPECIALISTS IN THE UNITED STATES AND ELSEWHERE WERE PREDICTING ALL-OUT WAR IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. BUT CROATIAN PRESIDENT FRANJO TUDJMAN REVERSED THE COUNTDOWN TO A CONFRONTATION WITH SERBIA WHEN HE AGREED TO ALLOW U-N PEACEKEEPERS TO REMAIN TO POLICE THE SITUATION IN THE TROUBLED KRAJINA REGION. AS SOON AS THIS FIRE WAS PUT OUT, ANOTHER SOON ERUPTED IN NEIGHBORING NORTHWESTERN BOSNIA WHEN GOVERNMENT FORCES ATTACKED SERB REBELS NORTH OF TUZLA. EXPERTS PREDICT THE FIGHTING IN BOSNIA WILL CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL AND THAT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO BOSNIAN TERRITORY. AT THE SAME TIME, FEAR IS BEING EXPRESSED THAT THE SPARK WHICH COULD IGNITE THE BALKANS MIGHT COME FURTHER SOUTH -- IN SERBIA'S KOSOVO REGION OR IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (FRYOM). VOA'S PAMELA TAYLOR REPORTS: TEXT: THE NOTION THAT SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC HAS NOT ABANDONED HIS GOAL OF A GREATER SERBIA WILL NOT GO AWAY. MOST ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, A LARGE CHUNK OF BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A PART OF THIS ENTITY AND THAT TOWARD THIS END MR. MILOSEVIC WILL ONLY TIGHTEN HIS HOLD ON KOSOVO. THIS ONCE AUTONOMOUS PROVINCE OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, POPULATED MAINLY BY ETHNIC ALBANIANS, IS VIEWED BY THE SERBS AS THEIR JERUSALEM. NOT ONLY DOES KOSOVO HOUSE THE MOST IMPORTANT SERBIAN ORTHODOX CHURCHES AND MONASTERIES, IT IS ALSO THE SITE OF THE MOST FAMOUS SERBIAN LEGEND OF ALL TIME. FOR CENTURIES THE STORY OF THE 1389 BATTLE OF KOSOVO HAS BEEN HANDED DOWN AS AN EPIC SAGA OF SERBIAN COURAGE AND SACRIFICE AT THE HANDS OF THE OTTOMAN TURKS. HISTORIAN THOMAS EMMERT OF GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS COLLEGE IN ST. PETER, MINNESOTA, SAYS THE KOSOVO SAGA HAS GAINED SUCH A HOLD ON SERBIAN THINKING THAT TODAY THEY BELIEVE ONE CANNOT BE A TRUE SERB IF HE OR SHE DOES NOT EMBRACE THE LEGEND OF KOSOVO: TAPE: CUT # 1 EMMERT RUNS [:38] "SERBS HAVE LONG BELIEVED THAT THE BATTLE OF KOSOVO WHICH OCCURRED IN JUNE OF 1389 IS THE BEGINNING OF A LONG PERIOD OF TURKISH RULE IN SERBIA BUT AT THE SAME TIME, OUT OF IT CAME A BELIEF THAT THEY WOULD BE "RESURRECTED" ONCE AGAIN AS A STATE. HAVING BEEN DEFEATED THEY ALSO GAINED A SORT OF MORAL VICTORY AND THAT IN THE VERY PLACE OF DEFEAT WILL ARISE ONCE AGAIN A GREAT SERBIAN NATION AND THE GREAT SERBIAN SPIRIT WILL BE PRESERVED." TEXT: PROFESSOR EMMERT SAYS WHILE KOSOVO REMAINS A PART OF SERBIA TODAY, THE PROBLEM IS THAT 90 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION IS ETHNIC ALBANIAN AND MOSTLY MUSLIM. FOR THIS REASON, OTHER ANALYSTS SAY, KOSOVO MAY BECOME SERBIA'S WEST BANK, RATHER THAN ITS JERUSALEM. AT A RECENT CONFERENCE ON BOSNIA, AT THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS IN WASHINGTON, D-C, SEVERAL SPEAKERS ADDRESSED THE SPECTER OF A WIDER WAR ERUPTING IN THE BALKANS -- SOUTH OF BOSNIA. ONE OF THE SPEAKERS WAS ELEZ BIBERAJ [EL-ESS BEEB-ER-EYE], A NOTED EXPERT ON ALBANIAN AFFAIRS, WHO IS CURRENTLY ON LEAVE FROM THE VOICE OF AMERICA: TAPE: CUT # 2 BIBERAJ RUNS [:28] "I THINK WE CAN SAY THE WAR IN BOSNIA HAS BEEN MORE OR LESS CONTAINED, BUT THE OUTBREAK OF WAR IN KOSOVO OR IN WESTERN MACEDONIA WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE A SPILLOVER EFFECT LEADING TO A WIDER BALKAN WAR WITH DISASTROUS EFFECTS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND PERHAPS BEYOND. IT WOULD ALSO SPELL THE END OF NATO AS WE KNOW IT TODAY, SINCE IT WOULD PIT TWO NATO ALLIES, GREECE AND TURKEY, AGAINST EACH OTHER." TEXT: MR. BIBERAJ SAID THAT PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC HAS STAKED HIS REPUTATION ON REASSERTING CONTROL OVER KOSOVO. THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATIONS OF THIS. THE SERBIAN MILITARY HAS LAUNCHED A CAMPAIGN TO FORCEFULLY INDUCT ETHNIC ALBANIANS INTO THE YUGOSLAV ARMY. AND A TRIAL IS EXPECTED TO OPEN (IN PRISTINA) THIS WEEK, OF NINE OF THE 200 ETHNIC ALBANIAN POLICEMEN WHO WERE ARRESTED LAST YEAR ON CHARGES OF TRYING TO CREATE A SHADOW KOSOVAR DEFENSE MINISTRY. // OPT // IN FACT, KOSOVO IS ALREADY LARGELY RUN BY A WELL-DEVELOPED, PARALLEL UNDERGROUND GOVERNMENT. THE CHIEF ARCHITECT OF THE SYSTEM, IBRAHIM RUGOVA, IS PRESIDENT OF THE SELF-DECLARED BUT UNRECOGNIZED REPUBLIC OF KOSOVO. WHILE MR. RUGOVA HAS SO FAR MANAGED TO KEEP THE UNARMED PROVINCE QUIET, MANY EXPERTS WONDER HOW LONG HE CAN CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE FACE OF CONTINUING DEMANDS FOR COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE FROM SERBIA. // END OPT // FOR THE TIME BEING ALBANIA APPEARS TO HAVE HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA OF CONFEDERATION BETWEEN KOSOVO AND ALBANIA. BUT MANY FEAR THAT IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ULTIMATELY AGREES TO ALLOW THE BOSNIAN SERBS TO CONFEDERATE WITH SERBIA, IT WON'T BE LONG BEFORE ALBANIA ASKS FOR CONFEDERATION WITH KOSOVO. FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT BALKAN AFFAIRS ANALYST STEPHEN WALKER, WHO RESIGNED OVER THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S HANDLING OF THE YUGOSLAV CRISIS IN 1993, TOLD THE CONFERENCE THE UNITED STATES MUST TAKE A STAND IN KOSOVO: TAPE: CUT # 3 WALKER RUNS [:51] "IN KOSOVO, WE'RE IN A POSITION FOR THE UNITED STATES TO DRAW A LINE IN THE SAND: WE WILL NOT TOLERATE AGGRESSION AND VIOLENCE BY SERBIA IN KOSOVO. IF THE SERBIAN REGIME HAS INCREASED REPRESSION AGAINST THE ALBANIANS IN KOSOVO, WITHOUT THE WATCHFUL EYE OF C-S-C-E OBSERVERS WHO WERE KICKED OUT, BECAUSE THEY KNOW IF WE HAVEN'T KEPT TO THE AGREEMENTS WE MADE ON PAPER IN BOSNIA, WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO INTERVENE INSIDE SERBIA ITSELF. IN MACEDONIA WE'VE PUT 500 U-S GROUND TROOPS ON THE GROUND, SOON TO BE AUGMENTED, AND YET THE REAL THREAT TO MACEDONIA IS THE THREAT OF ETHNIC CONFLICT WITHIN ALBANIA THAT WOULD SPILL OVER INTO THE ETHNIC ALBANIAN MINORITY IN MACEDONIA." TEXT: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS SAID THAT KOSOVO SHOULD REMAIN A PART OF SERBIA, WHILE INSISTING THAT BELGRADE SHOW GREATER RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS THERE. AS FOR MACEDONIA, THE UNITED STATES IS CONSIDERING SENDING UP TO 15-HUNDRED TROOPS TO JOIN THE 500 ALREADY THERE -- SHOULD THE CONFLICT IN BOSNIA SPREAD TO MACEDONIA. // OPT // MACEDONIA ALREADY HAS ITS OWN INTERNAL ETHNIC PROBLEMS. IN FEBRUARY, TENSIONS FLARED BETWEEN MACEDONIA'S SLAVIC MAJORITY AND THE LARGE ETHNIC ALBANIAN MINORITY AFTER THE GOVERNMENT BLOCKED THE OPENING OF AN ETHNIC ALBANIAN UNIVERSITY. // END OPT // ANALYSTS BELIEVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS TACITLY AGREED TO WHAT IS CALLED A POLICY OF CONTAINMENT WITH REGARD TO BOSNIA -- MEANING THERE WILL BE NO INTERVENTION SO LONG AS THE CONFLICT IS CONTAINED TO THAT REGION. BUT SHOULD FIGHTING ERUPT ELSEWHERE IN THE BALKANS, MANY THINK THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, NOTABLY NATO, WILL FINALLY DECIDE IT HAS INTERESTS IN THE AREA WORTH PROTECTING. (SIGNED) NEB/PAM/PCH 04-Apr-95 2:36 PM EDT (1836 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America