TRKNWS-L Turkish Daily News excerpts (January 5, 1996)

From: TRKNWS-L@formant.bu.edu (trh@aimnet.com)

Turkish News Directory

CONTENTS

TURKISH DAILY NEWS / 5 January 1996

[01] Dr. Starr: 'Syria has only itself to blame on water issue'

By Ugur Akinci

Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- An expert on the politics of water in the Middle East, Dr. Joyce Shira Starr, told TDN in an exclusive interview that Syria has no right to accuse Turkey of releasing "dirty water" since "Syria only has itself to blame." Ten days ago seven Arab nations headed by Syria issued a Damascus Declaration accusing Turkey of releasing contaminated water downstream to Syria.

"If Syrians, instead of diverting precious resources to armament and defense expenditures, invested properly in water infrastructure, they would have clean, usable water today," Starr told TDN. "Syria's accusation is nothing new. Syria is very good at projecting a public case that does not exist. If they keep repeating 'Turkey is the evil man of Europe' enough times, everyone will believe it," she said.

For the last two days in a row, spokesmen for the U.S. State Department claimed they were not aware of the Damascus Declaration. On Tuesday, when TDN put the question to acting spokesman Glyn Davies, he said he had not heard of the declaration. When on Wednesday TDN repeated the question to spokesman Nicholas Burns, he said: "We were not privy to the discussions when they took place (in Damascus). We were not part of them. "So I can't speak what was discussed in Damascus."

Archaic irrigation system

In her newly released book on the issue, Covenant over Middle Eastern Waters , Starr says: "The U.S. Department of State's 1993-94 country profile on Syria describes the country's irrigation schemes, particularly those connected with the Euphrates, as a disappointment. Syria's antiquated irrigation system, which loses over 50 percent of its water before it reaches the crops, is vastly corroded by salts and fertilizers ... Damascus is ... estimated to lose as much as 30 to 40 percent of its drinking water from old, leaking pipes."

The water cutback due to such an archaic irrigation system gave rise to health epidemics in Syria. "A cable from the U.S.

Embassy in Damascus in December 1993 ... reported that water cutbacks to Syrian farmers had dangerously increased concentration of fecal matter on irrigated fruits and vegetables, leading to an acute rise in gastrointestinal disorders."

The hazardous materials in Syria's irrigation system "threaten not only the infrastructure, but the lives of the Syrian people.

Aleppo residents endured a cholera outbreak in 1989 that was blamed on contaminated parsley. Yet further Syrian outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, and dysentery have been quietly hidden from the Western media," Starr wrote.

Ozal's water summit that failed

In her book Starr devoted a chapter to the Middle East Water Summit that the late Turkish President Turgut Ozal had planned to convene in Istanbul Nov. 4-9, 1991. However, when Syria and Saudi Arabia objected to the possibility of Turkey's using this summit to position itself as a premier power in the region, they put tremendous pressure on the U.S. State Department and the White House which scuttled the project.

"Syria and Saudi Arabia were on top of American priorities and Turkey the last, with the other regional countries in between," Starr said. "But to the very end, Ozal believed that Bush supported him in this project -- whereas he didn't."

One sticking point was the participation of Israel in the summit. "Syria advised Turkish officials in mid-June (1991) that if Israel was invited, Syria would not only refuse to participate, but would launch a campaign to keep all other Arab nations from attending as well ... The water-poor Saudi government was meanwhile letting it be known that .. it wanted no part of a project that would give Turkey the remotest option (and leverage) of controlling the (water) tap."

Starr should know since she worked hard together with Ozal and the Turkish Foreign Ministry for the realization of this summit.

Starr says that for the Istanbul summit, she secured the commitment of 15 international development funds and organizations including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the World Bank, and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), plus the participation of many heads of state, ministers, directors general of various ministries, heads of water authorities, etc. Presidents Bush and Gorbachev were invited, as well as leaders of all Western nations, China, India and other key nonaligned countries. "This was to be a grand meeting, indeed," she wrote. But at the last moment Ozal decided not to invite Israel and thus raise the Israeli "red flag" in Istanbul. Thus, in addition to Syria and Saudi Arabia, Israel came out against the summit as well.

Ozal banks on Bush's friendship

Yet Ozal to the very end continued to believe that America was supporting the Turkish project, she said. Cultural misinterpretation of body language was partly to blame, Starr explained to TDN. When the two presidents came together in July 1991, Ozal raised the question of the Istanbul conference with Bush, who didn't say anything but kept nodding his head up and down. Starr, who worked as a part of the Clinton administration, said Bush was known to nod like that with his head when he was listening to people, signaling them to go on with the presentation. "Ozal, unfortunately, took that as a sign of approval," she said.

"When Ozal's first letter to Bush in 1990 was not answered, Ozal wrote a second letter asking for Bush's support," Starr said. "For a total of eight months, a political counselor from the Turkish Embassy would go to the State Department once a month to ask if an answer was ready for the Turkish president.

He would be told 'not yet, not yet.' Can you imagine the State Department not responding to a letter by (Israeli Prime Minister) Shimon Peres for two weeks? All hell would break loose!" she said. "Ozal broke my heart because he trusted Bush," Starr added.

"Ozal almost made the decision to invite Israel to the water summit," she said. "In August 1991, when the OIC (Organization of the Islamic Conference) was meeting in Istanbul, Ozal told me that if I could deliver all I promised then he would invite Israel. That night, his aide Mr. Guner, talked Ozal out of it.

Even the Turkish foreign minister, Sefa Giray, was flabbergasted. Guner convinced Ozal to write another letter to Bush instead, telling him how much his support was needed. Ozal didn't know that Washington laughed at him behind his back. He couldn't gauge that they really did not respect him and needed him except when the U.S. wanted Turkey to pitch in at the Gulf War. Now, they again need Turkey to train the Bosnians."

Fear of Ottomans

How could she explain the U.S. rebuff, TDN asked. "For one thing, Ozal was a warm and jolly guy, trained and worked in the U.S. He couldn't understand that Washington would let him down, that they would choose Syria and Saudis over Turkey. It was a matter of enormous personal pride for him."

"And the reason why they won't let Turkey emerge as a regional power is this deep fear about the Ottoman Empire, about this large state coming and taking over most of Europe," she said.

They couldn't recognize what is good about Turkey. Turkey has always been used as a scapegoat. It has always been easy to blame Turkey for everything that went wrong in the Middle East. That's dangerous."

"Ozal took a great risk by supporting the Allies in the Gulf War. Turkey didn't get anything in return. And I believe that's why he lost the next elections. He was accused of being a 'lackey of the West' and being disrespected. The alienation and disgust led to the rise in the votes of the (pro-Islamic) Refah Party. But Washington and the White House do not take responsibility for contributing to that," Starr concluded.

[02] Water, conspiracy and war in the Middle East

Turkish Daily News

ISTANBUL- "Oil came to our lives at the beginning of this century, it will wither away in the next century, and humanity will certainly find a substitute," says Professor Dogu Ergil.

"But water", he continues, "is the source of life on earth and the demand for it will never end.

"On the contrary, humanity's need for water is constantly increasing, while there is a parallel tendency for the availability of this resource to decrease due to the ecological damage that we humans cause. And," he declared, "there is no substitute for water, the vital liquid," and predicts this will lead to a shift in importance from oil politics to hydropolitics in the Middle East.

Professor Ergil became a much talked-about figure last year with his controversial report on Kurdish question, and is now conducting a research for a similar report on the water question.

Cooperation versus Sharing

Commenting on the recent escalation of tensions between Syria and Turkey, Ergil noted that there is a limited amount of water in the rivers of Euphrates and Tigris, which is well known by Syria. He theorizes that the real problem lies in the differences in approach of Turkey, Iraq and Syria to the need for an international agreement on the water issue.

He points out that Turkish government is not keen on international negotiations on the sharing of the water between the three countries. Instead, Turkey proposes a three-stage plan to be realized through the cooperation of three parties, which basically proposes the distribution of water according to the needs of each country, and technological cooperation between the parties for rational use.

Ergil sees Turkey's plan as more reasonable in the long run than the attempts by Syria and Iraq to find international support for sharing the water of the Tigris and Euphrates. He says instead of only sharing the three countries should look for division of labor and cooperation for a common rational way of water usage according to the needs of each.

But, he continues, because politicians prefer to use this issue as a weapon in their short term political maneuvers, the dispute inevitably degenerates into crises from time to time.

Syrian-Israel Peace Equals Syrian-Turkish conflict?

Ergil pointed out that two and a half years ago he forecast "a peace settlement in the Middle East which may reflect on Turkey as water concessions", and said that is what is happening today. He points out the link between the Israel/Syria peace negotiations and the recent tensions between Syria and Turkey.

"Peace negotiations between Israel and Syria are not solely on the security of land", he continues, "life security, food security, water security and so on are also the subjects of these negotiations. Israel needs water for her industrial base, which is the largest in the region, and for her cities, given that she is more urbanized than the surrounding countries, and for her agriculture, which is also highly developed.

"When Israel is to leave the Golan Heights to Syria, her need for using water sources in that region will continue," Ergil added. "If Syria has to give up water sources on Golan, she will be having to extract more water from Euphrates. Which brings about the possibility of common pressure on Turkey from Syria and Israel." Ergil says the Turkish Foreign Ministry is aware of this possibility.

Irresponsible political maneuvering may lead to war

Turkey's rulers are not exempted from Ergil's criticism. He reminds his audience that leading Turkish politicians spent phrases like "we will get them drawn in the water" or "we will dry them up" in the past, statements which Ergil finds very irresponsible.

He says water should not and cannot be a bargaining item for other political issues, hinting at the fact that the Turkish government gives the impression whenever the water issue is raised by Syria that Turkey is able to release from her dams as much water as Syria wants, on the condition that Syria ceases support for the PKK. Contrary to this false impression, he says, Turkey does not have immense surplus water, and this is what the Turkish government should be emphasizing.

Ergil warns that water is a sensitive issue which has the potential to turn into a crisis, and even lead to an armed conflict, if the current irresponsible political rhetoric is not replaced with expressions of good will on each side to negotiate for a rational settlement.

An American conspiracy with a Greece-Syria Alliance

According to Professor Mahir Kaynak, a former high- ranking officer in Turkey's MIT intelligence service, the recent storm over the Euphrates water is linked to the US's intervention in Turkish domestic politics. Kaynak claims that the US wants the next government to be formed by the Tansu Ciller- led pro-American camp which consists, according to him, of DYP, CHP and MHP. Against the possibility of a government to emerge from among the rival pro-German block consisting of RP, ANAP and DSP, America will stage a conspiracy to drag Turkey into an armed conflict with a Greece-Syria alliance.

Kaynak sees the recent moves by the Syrian government to escalate tensions on the water issue as a warning from the US to indicate her capability to influence Turkish domestic politics. He points out the coincidence in timing between this crisis and the increasing arms shipments from Greece to Southern Cyprus, and claims that the message from the US is clear: "The consequence of a pro-German government in Turkey will be an armed threat to the security of her borders."

[03] Denktas: Real destiny of Cyprus is as two sovereign and equal republics on good terms

Turkish Daily News

NICOSIA- The weapons bought by Greek Cyprus could not change the destiny of Cyprus, and its real destiny was the coexistence of two sovereign and equal republics in the Island, Rauf Denktas, the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) said on Thursday.

Denktas said in a press release that the reality of the existence of two equal, separate and sovereign republics on the island should be accepted.

Denktas was reacting to a statement by the Greek Cyprus leader Glafkos Clerides, who said Greek Cypriots would fight, if necessary, to get back their lands. Clerides also said that his people did not want to live again through a bloody period like that of 1974.

In his response, Denktas pointed out that in 1974 Greek Cyprus had suffered heavily from internal strife during the coup against Archbishop Makarios, in which 3000 Greek Cypriot were killed by other Greek Cypriots. He emphasized that if Turkey had not intervened in Cyprus, 10,000 more Greek Cypriots, including Clerides, were on the death-list.

Denktas said that in the light of these facts, also accepted by the Greek Cypriot political party AKEL, Clerides had probably warned Greece on this issue. He added that Turkey had prevented the island from becoming a colony of Greece.

"Everybody who wants to see a united Cyprus, despite the uncompromising attitudes of Greek Cypriots, should understand that the Greek Cypriot government is not the legal government of the island of Cyprus," Denktas said.

To recent statements by Clerides saying that he supported indirect talks to solve the Cyprus issue, Denktas responded that Clerides was avoiding face to face talks at the same table, because of his fear of being seen to be in the wrong, since he had consistently refused to recognize the TRNC.

US Assistant Secretary of State Holbrooke: 'We don't wish to interfere in any way with Turkish politics'

[04] 'The Turkish political process is in a very delicate period'

Turkish Daily News

WASHINGTON- U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Canadian Affairs Richard Holbrooke told a group of Turkish journalists on Wednesday that Turkey was going through a "very delicate" period, and that the United States had no intention of interfering in the Turkish political process.

"Did you have a meeting yesterday (on Cyprus)?" the TDN asked Holbrooke. "Yes, sure. We always meet," he quipped. "It was just an internal meeting. Cyprus is very important to us."

"When are you going to the region?" another Turkish journalist asked. "First of all, I am not going to stay at this job too long," Holbrooke responded. "I am leaving at the end of February. But Mr. Beattie (President Clinton's special envoy to Cyprus) and I are looking forward to going to the region before I leave." Holbrooke was expected to leave on Dec. 22 on a visit to Athens, Ankara and Nicosia to engineer a "big push" to solve the Cyprus issue. His above-quoted response is interpreted by some in Washington to mean that he would delay his trip until February, by which time a coalition government might have been formed in Turkey.

"We do not however wish to interfere in any way with the Turkish political process," he added. "Since the Turkish political process is now in a very delicate period, I'm just not in a position to comment at all."

Burns on Holbrooke's trip

Also commenting on Holbrooke's upcoming trip to the region, State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said: "Dick Holbrooke met with Ambassador Boucher, (Ambassador Jim) Williams and (Richard) Beattie yesterday (Tuesday) to discuss their proposed trip to the region. We did not yet set a date for Ambassador Holbrooke's trip. But of course we are looking forward to it because we do want to make (a push) and help the peace process." There were no Greek or Greek-Cypriot ambassadors present at the meeting, Burns confirmed. "Just the Americans," he said.

As to the elections in Turkey, Burns said: "Turkey had democratic elections. That's a good thing. The process now needs to sort itself out. We are used to this. A number of our friends around the world have these situations. Parliamentary democracies have to go through the process of putting together a government. We'll just simply wait until that happens."

[05] Turkish budget deficit jumps due to pre-election spending

ANKARA- Turkey's budget deficit more than quadrupled last Nov. after the government lost all fiscal controls and pre-election spending boomed, budget statistics showed Thursday.

The Treasury announced that the consolidated budget gap jumped by 409.6 percent from TL 30.2 trillion in Jan.-Oct. to TL 153.9 trillion in Jan.-Nov.

The budget produced a sharp deficit of TL 123.6 trillion in Nov. alone. This was 66.4 percent larger than the deficit of TL 74.3 trillion, the second largest this year.

In November, the Treasury said, budget revenues stood at TL 147.7 trillion but expenditures shot up to TL 271.3 trillion.

Fiscal analysts said the sharp rise in the budget deficit stemmed mainly from heavy public spending in Nov.

"A similar picture will show up when the Dec. statistics are revealed. The government unfortunately failed to stick to austere spending prior to the (Dec. 24) polls. This will inevitably distort the year-end budget performance," said one finance ministry official, who asked not to be named.

The coalition government of Prime Minister Tansu Ciller released massive funds to win electoral support ahead of the vote. Wage earners, pensioners, farmers and small tradesmen were granted lucrative financing instruments.

The Treasury also said that Jan.-Nov. budget revenues were TL 1.255 quadrillion, falling short of total spending worth TL 1.409 quadrillion.

It said tax revenues, the principal source of public income, were TL 971.3 trillion in the first 11 months of the year.

Interest expenditures in the same period reached TL 475.5 trillion, or 33.7 percent of overall budget spending.

Non-interest expenditures were TL 934.3 trillion, of which TL 435.9 trillion were personnel expenditures, TL 97.3 trillion current expenditures, TL 74.1 trillion investment expenditures.

In a related report, the Central Bank said that Turkey's foreign debt repayments last year reached $9.88 billion. The bulk of the repayments, $8.2 billion, or 83 percent, was made by the Treasury. The state economic enterprises repaid debts worth $545.1 million and the Central Bank repaid $888.8 million.

[06] Turkish retail prices jump 78.9 % in 1995

ANKARA- Turkey's uncontrolled price surge ended 1995 in the 60-80 percent range, the national statistics agency disclosed Thursday.

The State Institute of Statistics (DIE) said consumer prices in December rose by 3.5 percent, sending the year-end rate to 78.9 percent, the lowest year-on-year rate since March 1994.

It said wholesale prices went up 4.1 percent in December, producing a year-end rate of 64.9 percent, the lowest since January 1994.

The agency also said that the average retail and wholesale year-end inflation rates were 93.6 percent and 88.5 percent respectively.

But analysts said December's price statistics did not reflect the real picture because most price hikes, announced immediately after the Dec. 24 general election, were not included in the statistics, as the DIE only covers price movements until the 21st of every month.

"A wave of price hikes launched on the morning of Dec. 25 will be seen in January's price statistics," one DIE official explained.

The government had been reluctant to announce state sector price hikes prior to polls, but announced massive hikes immediately afterwards.

The DIE said farm prices rose fastest during 1995, by 91.1 percent on average. Energy prices increased 35.7 percent, manufacturing industry prices 58.9 percent and mining prices 68.8 percent.

In sub-sectors, the agency said, meat prices jumped 199.8 percent, tea prices 98.4 percent and cereals 94.3 percent.

The price statistics suggest that the government remained reluctant to raise wholesale prices during the entire 1995, but private sector price makers were more tempted to post higher prices. The average wholesale price inflation in the public sector was 48.2 percent, well below the private sector's average of 71.8 percent.