News from Bulgaria, 96-10-28

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From: Embassy of Bulgaria <bulgaria@access1.digex.net>

EMBASSY OF BULGARIA - WASHINGTON D.C.

BTA - BULGARIAN TELEGRAPH AGENCY

28 October, 1996

CONTENTS

[01] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE STOYANOV HOLDS COMMANDING LEAD IN FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

[02] SOCIOLOGISTS: POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY SURPRISES IN RUN-OFF

[03] CANDIDATES OF OPPOSITION AND RULING SOCIALISTS ENTER RUN-OFF CONTEST FOR PRESIDENCY

[04] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE STOYANOV PLEASED WITH RESULTS

[05] BSP TO SEEK CONSOLIDATION WITH LEFT-WING FORCES FOR RUN-OFF

[06] BIPOLAR POLITICAL MODEL HAS BEEN BROKEN UP, BBB PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GANCHEV SAYS

[07] PRESIDENT ZHELEV ADDRESSES NATION

[08] PRESIDENT ZHELEV ADDRESSES B.S.E.C. SUMMIT

[09] PRESIDENTS ZHELEV OF BULGARIA AND ALIYEV OF AZERBAIJAN MEET IN MOSCOW

[10] FOREIGN MINISTERS OF BULGARIA AND RUSSIA MEET

[11] PRESIDENT ZHELEV AND FOREIGN MINISTER PIRINSKI RETURN FROM BSEC SUMMIT

[12] FRANCE AIDS BULGARIA TO BUILD SINGLE CAPITAL MARKET

[13] 65TH SESSION OF EUROPEAN DEMOCRATIC UNION

[14] DEPUTY PM GECHEV: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE INTEREST IN INVESTMENT IN BULGARIA

[01] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE STOYANOV HOLDS COMMANDING LEAD IN FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Peter Stoyanov and Todor Kavaldjiev, the tandem of the united opposition, are placed first with 42.78 to 44.6 percent, according to the projections of five polling agencies based on collating results. The pair of the Left, Ivan Marazov and Irina Bokova, come second with 25.5 to 28 percent. George Ganchev, the candidate of the Bulgarian Business Bloc, is placed third with 21.83 to 23.47 percent. The independent tandem Alexander Tomov Lyudmil Marinchevski is fourth with about 3 percent of the vote. Hristo Boichev and Ivan Koulekov, who conducted a satirical election campaign, are fifth with about 1.5 percent, and the candidate of the Bulgarian Communist Party, Vera Ilieva, won less than 1 percent of the vote.

Under the Constitution, to be elected, a presidential candidate must garner more than 50 percent of the valid votes, provided that more than half of the eligible voters have taken part in the ballot.

The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) officially declared the end of the polling day at 21:05 hrs Bulgarian time, though it had been planned to close the polling stations at 19:00 hrs. "It was all normal during the elections," Deputy Prime Minister Doncho Konakchiev, chief of the Council of Ministers' election headquarters, said. The CEC received 25 complaints about cases of disobeying orders not to conduct propaganda on the polling day. It got over 400 complaints on the day the 1995 local elections were held. According to the police, there were no major violations of public order or incidents today; the few minor breaches did not affect the election procedure. It is peaceful throughout the country. Polling stations, the regional electoral commissions and the Central Electoral Commission are under guard; the police is escorting the automobiles carrying the election - related documents, the Interior Ministry said.

Bulgarian nationals voted in 115 polling stations in 55 countries, CEC spokesperson Iliana Rizova said. The polls were first closed in Australia, China, Singapore and Japan because of the time difference. A total of 161 Bulgarian nationals voted in Australia, 64 in China, 39 in Singapore and 63 in Japan, according to CEC data. A total of 256 Bulgarian nationals voted in Edirne, or 1.5-fold down from the parliamentary elections in 1994.

Almost 50,000 observers and party representatives monitored the progress of the elections. There were 30 foreign observers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The team is headed by Michael Meadowcroft.

Five hundred and fifty journalists have been accredited to the International press centre, Foreign Ministry spokesman Pantelei Karasimeonov said. The foreign journalists are 250. The elections are covered by ten TV crews, including crews from Japan and the US, two Greek and two German TV companies.

A poll conducted at the international press centre shows that the outcome of the first voting is just what the political analysts expected. "I would be surprised if the outcome is really a surprise to somebody," Ivan Krustev, Programme Director of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, said.

"The result coincides with most opinion polls and reflects the social tendencies of the past three or four months," Ivan Krustev told BTA. It would have been a surprise if Peter Stoyanov had won in the first round or if George Ganchev had been placed second in the race.

Ivan Krustev believes that in this situation Peter Stoyanov's victory in the run-off is very likely. "It would be quite a miracle if Stoyanov loses the election and there is no reason to think so: the voters obviously disapprove of the way in which Bulgaria is governed at the moment," he observed.

Political scientists warn it should not be assumed that the votes cast for George Ganchev could be automatically added to the vote Peter Stoyanov would garner. "Half of the people who supported Ganchev today say they will not go to the polls for the run-off," Krustev pointed out. He predicts that the votes of the remaining half will be distributed fifty-fifty between Marazov and Stoyanov. "I do not see how Marazov could garner the vote he needs to win next weekend's round, given that Stoyanov hold a commanding lead," the Director of the Centre for Liberal Strategies said.

[02] SOCIOLOGISTS: POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY SURPRISES IN RUN-OFF

The data show a commanding lead of the presidential pair of the united opposition, Peter Stoyanov and Todor Kavaldjiev. The two polled between 42.6% to 44.5% of the vote.

The Left's presidential tandem, Ivan Marazov and Irina Bokova, are placed second, having polled between 25.89% to 28% of the vote. Marazov and Bokova are followed, by a narrow margin, by Bulgarian Business Bloc candidates George Ganchev and Arlin Antonov, who polled 22% to 24% of the vote.

Turnout at yesterday's election was by one million voters down the figure for the previous presidential elections held in 1992, data of the Citizen's Initiative for Free and Democratic Elections show. Sociologists of the Bulgarian Association for Fair Elections and Civil Rights describe as alarming the downward trend in turnout figures.

According to the MBMD polling agency, only 60% of the people who voted for the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) at the last general elections in 1994 now supported Marazov and Bokova. The BSP won the 1994 parliamentary elections. Twenty per cent of the BSP electorate did not cast a ballot, the rest voted for Ganchev. On the whole, younger voters chose between Stoyanov and Ganchev while the elderly decided between Marazov and Stoyanov. The preferences of the different age groups was the reason for the narrow margin between the second and third pair, MBMD pollsters said.

According to data of the Bulgarian Association for Fair Elections and Civil Rights, Stoyanov polled fewer votes that did the opposition Union of Democratic Forces, the Popular Union and the ethnic Turks' Movement for Rights and Freedoms at the last general elections. The pollsters of the Association describe as drastic the drop in votes for the Left candidates. As little as half of the voters who supported the BSP in the 1994 parliamentary elections voted for Marazov, according to polls conducted by the Association. Ganchev garnered 100,000 votes more than the figure for the 1992 presidential poll, data of the Association show. Sociologists attribute this to the lower turnout at yesterday's election. They do not rule the possibility of a second round surprises but say they are unlikely.

[03] CANDIDATES OF OPPOSITION AND RULING SOCIALISTS ENTER RUN-OFF CONTEST FOR PRESIDENCY

The opposition and the Left are both confident in their victory in the second round. That is what they stated at their first news conferences after today's vote. Giving his first news conference, George Ganchev said that when the official results became known, he might prove to have beaten Marazov and run in the second round which he hoped to win. However, later on he accepted the projections placing him third and accused the opposition, the Left and the media of machinations.

According to Peter Stoyanov, the results of the first voting show that a news majority which stands for change is being formed; this majority includes the voters who supported George Ganchev and independent candidate Alexander Tomov (who polled over 3 percent) as well. "They voted against the BSP," Stoyanov said and predicted that he would win the run-off by a landslide. He got thunderous applause at both news conferences he gave after the announcement of projections. The leaders of the united opposition Ivan Kostov, Stefan Savov, Anastasia Moser and Ahmed Dogan expressed their assurance that Stoyanov would win the elections and that his victory would lead to the toppling of the Socialist Government. The opposition leaders pointed out they needed a resounding victory in the run-off.

Georgi Purvanov, chief of the campaign headquarters of the Left and Deputy Chairman of the ruling BSP, believes that Stoyanov's commanding lead is due to the consolidation of the right-wing forces, while the votes of supporters of the left-wing ones were scattered, being cast for several candidates. "We should make efforts to unite these voters and we have reason to believe that this is what will happen in the run-off," Purvanov said. The Left, which won the 1994 parliamentary elections and last year's local government elections by an absolute majority, is categoric that it is too early to speak about a failure in the presidential elections.

Asked if the reason for today's results is the policy pursued by the incumbent Government of the Left, Ivan Marazov admitted some people were disappointed with its policy. At the same time Marazov stressed that there were other factors for a better performance of the Left and that he expected a victory in the run-off. Irina Bokova, the vice-presidential candidate of the Left, also hopes they will win, relying on a heavier turnout in the second round. She ruled out the possibility of George Ganchev's election as president.

Peter Stoyanov declared he would not change the style of his campaign because the first voting showed this was the style that would finally win. Representatives of the Left said they would discuss some ideas to modify and add new elements to the election campaign but decline to reveal any details.

Stoyanov was asked a lot of questions what he would do when elected president. He even stated that his first step as president - if elected - would be to call upon all state institutions for measures to survive the winter.

Peter Stoyanov expects that the loss of support will lead to reform in the Socialist Party which would transform it into a Social Democratic one. According to Alexander Tomov, if there is no change in the manner of government, there will be early parliamentary elections soon, although the term of the incumbent MPs expires in december 1998. Tomov said at his news conference that in some regions the BSP had the Bulgarian Business Bloc playing into its hands which could explain George Ganchev's lead in areas with traditionally "red" electorate, such as Vratsa and Montana (Northwestern Bulgaria), Dobrich (Northeastern Bulgaria) and Pleven (North Central Bulgaria). "This can play a bad trick on the Socialists," Tomov observed.

According to George Ganchev's campaign committee, the October 27 election showed that the bipolar political model in Bulgaria was broken up and that looking for an alternative, the sober- minded and the young Bulgarians had found it in the BBB. The BBB members are categoric that their party will play a key role in the next National Assembly. "As from today, we will be getting ready for parliamentary elections," Ganchev said at his second news conference held early on Monday morning, October 28.

George Ganchev let it be understood that he would call on his electorate to vote with their consciousness and that he would make no deals. Tomov stated he was ready to hold negotiations on supporting some of the presidential candidates under certain conditions.

[04] OPPOSITION CANDIDATE STOYANOV PLEASED WITH RESULTS

"The results of the vote mean that a new majority is emerging in Bulgaria," Peter Stoyanov noted. In his opinion, today most people in this majority voted for a reasonable change. He said that the Bulgarians who cast their votes for George Ganchev and Alexander Tomov were also part of the new majority. Their vote is practically against the Bulgarian Socialist Party which shows that they have turned their back to the Socialists, Stoyanov stated.

[05] BSP TO SEEK CONSOLIDATION WITH LEFT-WING FORCES FOR RUN-OFF

According to Georgi Purvanov, it is too early to comment on the results as the situation is similar to that in 1992 when the margin between the main presidential candidates in the first round was about the same. In his opinion, the emotional motivation will give way to sober judgement in the run-off. Purvanov believes that the BSP and its coalition partners have a large potential. That is why it is necessary to consolidate all left-of-centre political forces, he said. "We have good reason to believe that this is what will happen not only because our platforms are similar but also because we were tolerant of the Bulgarian Business Bloc and the independent presidential candidates throughout the election campaign," Purvanov said.

He disagrees with the statement of opposition candidate Peter Stoyanov that a new majority was emerging. In his opinion, the judiciary paved the way for Stoyanov's victory by leaving him alone in the

[06] BIPOLAR POLITICAL MODEL HAS BEEN BROKEN UP, BBB PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE GANCHEV SAYS

According to unofficial projections announced by representatives of the BBB, the pair George Ganchev - Arlin Antonov were placed second in Dobrich, Shoumen, Montana, Haskovo, Turgovishte, Varna, Kyustendil, Vidin and Rousse. "In the first round the BBB and the BSP ended in a draw," BBB spokesman Hristo Ivanov said.

"The candidates of the BBB achieved the results they wanted to: polling over 20 percent of the vote, running in the second round and breaking up the bipolar political model which made Bulgaria the reform laggard of the former COMECON countries," Ivanov said.

According to George Ganchev, the BBB has asserted itself as an alternative in the political life which Bulgaria cannot do without. He predicted that in the next National Assembly the BBB would be "a key to the government of the country".

"On no account should the BBB be identified as a left-wing political force," Ganchev said commenting on BSP Deputy Chairman Georgi Purvanov's statement that his party would seek consolidation of all left-of-centre political forces. Asked to define the BBB as a party, Ganchev said it was a Social Liberal formation. He replied "no" to the question if he would agree to take part in a coalition cabinet in case it was proposed to form one before the run-off.

[07] PRESIDENT ZHELEV ADDRESSES NATION

[08] PRESIDENT ZHELEV ADDRESSES B.S.E.C. SUMMIT

In the first part of the session the heads of state and government of the 11 member-countries presented some of their ideas within five-minute statements.

"Only after we propose concrete projects, towards which partners outside the region show interest, we can more categorically decide on the institutionalization of the organization," President Zhelev stated. The BSEC structures should preserve their openness so as not to make this new type of cooperation bureaucratic, he added.

Bulgaria maintains the stand that it is not necessary to set up new permanent BSEC bodies but rather draw up projects, like the one on the Bourgas-Alexandroupolis gas pipeline, and seek funds for their implementation.

Opening the summit Prime Minister Chernomyrdin greeted the participants on behalf of Russian President Boris Yeltsin. The BSEC tasks require a broad view, radical approach and decisions which will lay the solid foundations of cooperation of BSEC member- countries on the threshold of the 21st century, Chernomyrdin stated.

The participants discussed the draft closing declaration of the summit. Until late last night BSEC experts argued on whether a declaration or a statement should be adopted. The opinion that the document should be more concrete and binding one outweighed all the rest, Bulgarian diplomats said.

At the Fifth Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Participating States preceding this summit Bulgarian diplomat Valentin Bozhilov was elected Director of the BSEC Permanent International Secretariat based in Istanbul. He will take office as of May 1, 1997.

[09] PRESIDENTS ZHELEV OF BULGARIA AND ALIYEV OF AZERBAIJAN MEET IN MOSCOW

The two presidents conferred just before the opening of the Third Summit of the state and government leaders of the countries participating in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation.

It is high time that the economic relations between Bulgaria and Azerbaijan start developing, but this depends on the governments of the two states and on the businessmen, Dr Zhelev said after the meeting with Aliev. More than a year ago in our capacity as heads of state we opened the road for development of the relations with the signing of the bilateral agreement for friendship and cooperation between Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, Dr Zhelev recalled.

[10] FOREIGN MINISTERS OF BULGARIA AND RUSSIA MEET

The two top diplomats met after the end of the 8th meeting of foreign ministers of the countries participating in the Black Sea Economic Cooperation process.

Minister Primakov confirmed Russia's support for the projects to construct pipelines carrying gas and oil across Bulgaria's territory, Mr Pirinski said after the meeting. He added that the European Union might provide financial aid for the Bourgas-Alexandroupolis gas project, with Greece tackling this problem.

[11] PRESIDENT ZHELEV AND FOREIGN MINISTER PIRINSKI RETURN FROM BSEC SUMMIT

"The most important development at this summit was the marked striving to drafting concrete projects for the Balkans and the entire region," President Zhelev told journalists upon his return from Moscow last night.

"The meeting marks a new stage in the development of BSEC not only because it provided for work on establishing new institutions and drafting legal documents to transform BSEC into an international organization but also because now the BSEC countries have come to view regional cooperation as being of crucial importance for their economic development and political stabilization of the region," Foreign Minister Georgi Pirinski told the press upon his return from Moscow today.

"We are already departing from the stage of general discussions and are approaching problems from a more pragmatic point of view," President Zhelev said. "When the agreement on establishing BSEC was signed in Istanbul four years ago, proposals were made for setting up various institutions with the organization which would have only impeded its work. But today things have changed in favour of a more pragmatic approach," Zhelev said. "That is why Bulgaria's stand on the institutionalization of the BSEC also underwent some change," Zhelev said. He believes Bulgaria's participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of BSEC to be already possible. "There are all prerequisites for the issue of Bulgaria's membership to be decided positively, but this is within the competence of the National Assembly," President Zhelev said.

On his part Foreign Minister Pirinski stressed that the declaration signed by the presidents and prime ministers mentioned the Sofia Declaration of the foreign ministers for cooperation among the Balkan countries and the declared need and readiness for BSEC support of economic projects in the Balkans.

Pirinski assessed the meeting as very useful for Bulgaria and as a new important step in the development of BSEC.

Foreign Minister Pirinski also said that the development of transport infrastructure was one of the main topics discussed at his talks with the foreign ministers of Russia, Greece, Romania, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Albania. In their statements the foreign ministers mentioned the forthcoming meeting of the BSEC transport ministers and the Central European Initiative in Sofia on November 22.

Foreign Minister Pirinski believes that it is necessary to speed up work on setting up a Transport Infrastructure Centre coordinated between the Balkan states.

On the sidelines of the third BSEC summit, President Zhelev had bilateral meetings with Turkish President Suleyman Demirel, Azerbaijani President Geidar Aliyev and Albanian Prime Minister Aleksander Meksi.

[12] FRANCE AIDS BULGARIA TO BUILD SINGLE CAPITAL MARKET

Later on Gechev spoke about the recently introduced tax breaks for foreign investors and conditions for investing in the privatization of large industrial enterprises at a seminar held as part of Expo East-West '96. Representatives of leading western companies showed an interest in this country's chemical industry, mechanical engineering, construction and communications.

[13] 65TH SESSION OF EUROPEAN DEMOCRATIC UNION

The EDU, whose members include 30 parties from across the world, seeks to find European Union's role in the world and promotes the socially-oriented market economy, EDU Chairman and leader of the Austrian Democratic Party Dr Alois Mock told a news conference here today. Mr Mock said that Bulgaria's place is in Europe, but only after this country's democratic forces overcome the legacy of communism. Speaking on behalf of EDU's members, he pledged his support for the candidate of the united opposition Peter Stoyanov in the upcoming presidential elections. Dr Mock stressed that EDU will continue to provide complete support for achieving the Union's aims to Stoyanov after he is elected president. "This declaration is not an intervention in Bulgaria's internal affairs; it expresses our political view and is in support to our friends," Mr Mock said also.

In a statement approved at today's session, the EDU Steering Committee expresses its hopes that the policy of reforms, pursued in Sofia, Plovdiv and other cities governed by Christian Democrats and conservative politicians, will receive the support of the Bulgarian voters at the forthcoming presidential polls.

Sir Geoffrey Pattie, British Conservative Party Vice President and Chairman of the International Office, said that backing the opposition's presidential candidate, the EDU supports Bulgaria as regards its full membership in the EU and NATO.

Apart from addressing internal EDU's questions, the 65th session of EDU's Steering Committee is important for this country because it shows that there are politicians in Europe who sympathize with Bulgaria and are ready to help this country, UDF leader Ivan Kostov said. According to Kostov, organizing a session of this type shows that this country's democratic forces have acquired a reputation.

Organizing EDU's session here and now is an extremely strong sign, despite the fact that it had been scheduled before the date of the elections was set, Stoyanov said. The fact that representatives of Europe's strongest political forces are in Bulgaria demonstrates that they attach great importance to the role of the Bulgarian democratic forces in this country's integration in the European structures, Stoyanov said.

[14] DEPUTY PM GECHEV: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE INTEREST IN INVESTMENT IN BULGARIA

The forthcoming agreement between Bulgaria, Greece and Russia on the Bourgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline was also received with interest. Some 500 million dollars will be invested in the pipeline and leading French and other companies wish to take part with technologies and co-funding, Gechev said.

France's Compagnie Generale des Eaux offered energy saving technologies which would reduce energy consumption in the central heating of large towns by 15 per cent. This French company will present its business plan to the Bulgarian government and city mayors within two or three months, Gechev said.

More than 150 large companies of 16 East European states took part in the East-West Expo. Fifteen leading companies of Bulgaria's chemical, electrical engineering, textile and metal-working industries signed preliminary agreements on investment. Bulgaria was also represented by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Foreign Investment Agency.

"Considerable interest in investment in Bulgaria was also shown at yesterday's seminar at which I spoke on the changes in Bulgarian legislation protecting foreign investment," Gechev said. The changes were well-received and those who are already investing expressed a wish to increase their investment, according to Gechev.

Deputy Prime Minister Gechev was assured by the French government that it would continue its support for Bulgaria - for its economic reform and for completing a stock exchange which is expected to start operating in mid-1997.

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