This paper has tried to highlight the dangers of military buildups and provocations that raise tensions and deepen ethno-nationalism on Cyprus. Rising tension and ethno-nationalism run counter to every goal that Cyprus is trying to achieve. In particular, they make a federal solution to the Cyprus problem dangerous because such a solution would force hostile parties to live and govern together. Instead of peace, a premature solution would cause gridlock in the federal government and exacerbate intercommunal strife. This strife could lead to wider conflict.

Greek Cypriot military buildups and joint defense dogmas only add marginally to deterrence. This benefit must be compared to the costs of increased tension, threats of military attack, and making it harder for strategic reasons for Turkey to give up its bases on Cyprus.

Greek Cypriot provocations and violent demonstrations also help cause rising ethno-nationalism and rising tension. High levels of ethno-nationalism and tension will delay Cyprus' E.U. accession, scare away tourists, help the Turkish side argue that their forces are necessary on the island to protect their nationals and the Turkish Cypriots, lessen sympathy for the Greek Cypriot cause, hurt the moral authority of Greek Cypriot case, and make it dangerous to arrive at a federal solution to the Cyprus problem.

Turkish lethal force and bellicosity also contribute to rising ethno-nationalism and tensions. Such provocations are counter-productive for Turkey and Turkish Cypriots as well.

These arguments do not mean that Cyprus and the international community cannot benefit from the current focus on the Cyprus problem. On the contrary. The opportunity should be seized to undertake confidence-building and goodwill measures that might reduce ethno-nationalism and tensions. However, these underlying problems currently make a federal solution premature. The ground must be prepared before a solution is reached.

The future will test many of my arguments. During the summer of 1997, how will politicians and leaders commemorate those who died in the summer of 1996? Will the candidates in the February 1998 Greek Cypriot presidential election stir up divisive ethno-nationalist passions? Or will they be more constructive?

It will be a good sign if the candidates compete to try to create the conditions for a lasting peaceful settlement. Perhaps they will compete to offer more creative confidence-building and goodwill measures. Perhaps the candidates will courageously and frankly address the problem of ethno-nationalism. Perhaps they will propose ways to reduce propaganda in schoolbooks and elsewhere on Cyprus.

These ideas cannot hurt Greek Cypriot security, can either encourage the Turkish side or make their obstinacy obvious, can help with E.U. accession, and can help promote a peaceful settlement.