U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS CONTROL STRATEGY REPORT, MARCH 1996

United States Department of State

Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Status Of Potential Worldwide Production

Potential Opium Production. In Southeast Asia, estimated opium cultivation and production in the Golden Triangle countries rose substantially in 1995. According to USG estimates, in 1995, growers in Burma, Laos, and Thailand cultivated an estimated 175,470 hectares of opium poppy, potentially yielding 2,545 metric tons of opium gum. This is a five percent increase in estimated cultivation and a 19 percent increase in production over the 167,230 hectares and 2,132 metric tons estimated for 1994.

In Burma, estimated opium poppy cultivation increased by some five percent to 154,070 hectares over the 146,600 hectares reported for 1994. Estimated production rose by 15 percent to 2,340 metric tons compared to the 2,030 metric tons reported last year. Excellent weather conditions were largely responsible for the increase in the crop. In Laos, estimated cultivation also increased by six percent to 19,650 hectares from the 1994 figure of 18,520 hectares, estimated production more than doubled to 180 metric tons. Estimated opium poppy cultivation in Thailand decreased by approximately 17 percent to 1,750 hectares from the 2,110 hectares observed last year. Thailand had an estimated potential production of 25 metric tons--47 percent more than the 17 metric tons estimated in 1994. In 1995, the USG 's second survey of China's Yunnan Province located 1,275 hectares of opium poppy, with an estimated potential yield of 16 metric tons of gum, a 36 percent drop in estimated potential production.

Opium poppy cultivation in Southwest Asia increased for the second year in a row. Total hectarage in Afghanistan and Pakistan increased by 25 percent, from 36,540 hectares in 1994 to 45,690 hectares at the end of 1995. All of the increase occurred in Afghanistan, which is still the world's second largest opium producer. Afghan hectarage increased from 29,180 hectares in 1994 to 38,740 hectares in 1995. This represents a rising trend from the 17,190 hectares that were under cultivation in 1989. Potential production rose 32 percent from an estimated 950 metric tons in 1994 to 1,250 metric tons in 1995. In Pakistan, opium cultivation dropped in 1995. Hectarage fell from 7,270 hectares in 1994 to 6,950 hectares at the end of 1995. Estimated potential production fell correspondingly from 160 metric tons in 1995 to 155 metric tons in 1995. India's illicit cultivation declined from 5,500 hectares of opium poppy, with a potential yield of 82 metric tons of gum in 1994 to 4,750 hectares potentially producing 71 metric tons of opium in 1995. We have no firm data about poppy cultivation or opium production in Iran. The USG estimated in 1992 that Iran had approximately 3,500 hectares of opium poppy with a potential yield of 35 metric tons to 70 metric tons. There has been no new information in 1994.

The USG is still examining the illicit drug crop situation in Russia, the Baltics, and the Central Asian countries formerly part of the Soviet Union. While some of these countries may be able to produce significant opium poppy harvests, the USG still lacks sufficient data to identify and measure all suspected cultivation areas.

In the Western Hemisphere, the opium poppy growing countries have maintained active crop control efforts despite continuing campaigns by criminal organizations to expand the areas under cultivation. In Colombia, the first USG survey of opium poppy determined that cultivation was a third less than the 20,000 hectares previously estimated by local officials. The USG estimates Colombian poppy cultivation to be 6,540 hectares, based on three crops per year. Alkaloid content remains low, though there are indications that yields have markedly increased as farmers have improved their methods. Mexico's opium poppy cultivation in 1995 was an estimated 5,050 hectares, down from the 1994 estimate of 5,795 hectares. The potential yield is 53 metric tons, down from 1994's estimate of 60 metric tons. Guatemala's poppy cultivation remains at minimal levels after government efforts eradicated 86 hectares.

Coca Cultivation. Worldwide coca cultivation rose to a new record, 214,800 hectares in 1995, exceeding 1992's high of 211,700 hectares. In Peru, cultivation grew 6.2 percent to 115,300 hectares. Despite an active eradication program, Colombia also experienced an increase in coca cultivation to 50,900 hectares at the end of 1995. This was a 13 percent increase over the 1994 total of 45,000 hectares. In Bolivia, government forces eradicated 5,493 hectares, leaving 48,600 hectares under cultivation. This is a negligible increase over 1994's estimate of 48,100 hectares. Some coca is cultivated in inaccessible areas of Brazil, but its extent is unknown. Ecuador has only negligible amounts of coca.

Cocaine Yield Estimates

The cocaine yield figure is offered with the same caveat as the crop harvest yield data: it is a figure representing potential production. It is a theoretical number. It does not in every case allow for losses or the many other variables that one would encounter in a "real world" conversion from plant to finished drug. In fact, the amount of cocaine HCl actually produced is probably lower. A USG team that studied cocaine processing in Bolivia's Chapare region in 1993 found that in the laboratories under observation processing efficiency was lower than previously thought. The estimate for Bolivia has been reduced accordingly and the figure published as a point estimate rather than as a range. The Drug Enforcement Administration will publish the findings of this study separately.

In 1995, taking into account estimates of local consumption and local seizures, the USG calculates that if virtually every coca leaf were converted into cocaine HCl, and there were no losses because of inefficiencies, bad weather, disease, or the deterrent effects of law enforcement, 780 metric tons of cocaine HCl theoretically could have been available from Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru for worldwide export. This figure includes 460 metric tons potentially available from Peru, 240 metric tons potentially available from Bolivia, and approximately 80 metric tons potentially available from Colombia. In publishing these numbers, we repeat our caveat that these are theoretical numbers, useful for examining trends. Though research is moving us closer to a more precise cocaine yield estimate for Latin America, we do not yet know for certain the actual amount available for distribution.

Consumption Data

Most of the chapters in this report contain some user or consumption data. For the most part, these are estimates provided by foreign governments or informal estimates by USG agencies. There is no way to vouch for their reliability. They are included because they are the only data available and give an approximation of how governments view their own drug abuse problems. They should not be considered as a source of data to develop any reliable consumption estimates.

Marijuana Production

Cannabis cultivation dropped in Mexico in 1995 to 6,900 hectares with a potential yield of 3,560 metric tons. This is a 35 percent drop from 1994's figure of 10,550 hectares. Mexican law enforcement agencies eradicated, 11,750 hectares of cannabis in 1995. In Colombia's traditional cannabis growing zones, where intensive eradication in previous years had virtually destroyed the crop, there was a resurgence of cultivation in 1993 to an estimated 5,000 hectares. That estimate did not change in 1995. Crop yield is estimated at 4,133 metric tons for 1994. Jamaica's cannabis crop was down in 1995 to 305 hectares, from 308 hectares in 1994. The 1995 potential yield was 206 metric tons, two metric tons less than the 994 figure of 208 metric tons. We recognize that there may be considerable undetected cannabis cultivation in Central and East Asia, and on the African continent. As we gather more accurate information, we will report on significant findings in future INCSRs.